1 POLICY-PLANNING- FORECASTING October 3, 2006. 2 Outline Background Role of Legislation, Policy,...

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POLICY-PLANNING-POLICY-PLANNING-FORECASTINGFORECASTING

October 3, 2006

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OutlineOutline

Background Role of Legislation, Policy, Planning,

Programming in Transportation Briefly on Using Management Systems &

Simulation/Models as Tools Examples of Legislation as a Tool

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General Framework

Example: Land Use & Transportation

FROM: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/toolbox/framew

ork.htm

Causal

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Policies (Sacramento Example)Policies (Sacramento Example)

High-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes; High-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes; Light rail transit (LRT) and other

advanced transit; Transit-Oriented Development (TOD); Roadway-Oriented Development (ROD);

and Pricing

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/toolbox/sacramento_overview.htm

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Formalized ProceduresFormalized Procedures

Key steps in policy definition and implementation

Many steps defined in legislation - federal, state, & region/city

New technology introduced by federal rulesState & regions define policies, resist and/or

foster change, implement solutions

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Digression on Different Hierarchies Digression on Different Hierarchies in Decision Makingin Decision Making

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Digression on Policy ActorsDigression on Policy Actors

Federal Legislature (Congress)Federal Government (President &

Agencies)State Legislature State Government (Governor and Agencies)Regions & Counties (in East US Advisory)Cities-townships (Govern on local issues)

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Digression on Policy ActorsDigression on Policy Actors

Federal Congress - General legislation (4 to 6 year span)

Federal Agencies - Create regulations to implement policy

Congress & Agencies - Allocate $$$ to states

State “Congress” - State legislation & budget

State Agencies - Create processes to spend funds and implement technologies - Allocate $$$ to cities

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Key DefinitionsKey Definitions

Policies - Broad Directions (Goals-Objectives-Measures)

Example: Save Lives, Leave Open Space, Decrease Travel Time

Politics - Emphasis on one direction for specific groups of people

Example: Decrease Gas Tax

Planning - Sequence of steps to satisfy the objectives ------ Contains a strong quantitative component (simulation models)

Example: Regional Long Range Transp. Plan

Programming - Process to define allocation of resources to projects

Example: Funding for I-99

OperationsSequence of steps to make a system work in a desirable way

Example: organization of streets & signals

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National Transportation PlanningNatio nal policy and direction

Program fundingStatist icsResearch

Statewide Transportation PlanningState policy an d direction

Conformity with national policiesPro ject programming/administration

Local Transportation PlanningIdentification of projects

Participation in statewide/metro /reg ional p lanningLocal develop ment

Regional PlanningIdentification of projects

Respond to inpu t from mgmt systems

MPO

MPO

MPO LDD

LDD

PennDOT

USDOT

Acronyms:

USDOT -- United States Department of TransportationPennDOT -- Pennsylvania Department of TransportationMPO -- Metropolitan Planning OrganizationLDD -- Local Development District

City

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Hierarchy of goals-objectives-performance Hierarchy of goals-objectives-performance measures-targets-evaluation/monitoringmeasures-targets-evaluation/monitoring

T a rg e tC ontrcat and des ign cen ter by D ec. 200 0

P hll. and P itt. cen ters by D ec. 2005

P e r fo r m a n c e M e a s u reE stab lish traf and opsm anagem ent cen ters

T a rg e t50% of In ters tates covered by D ec 2003

P e r fo m a n c e M e a s u reIm plem ent inciden t m anagem ent

O b je c tiv e 1Im plem entconges tion

m anagem ent

O b je c tiv e 2A chiev e

com pliance w ithenv ironm ental ru les

O b je c tiv e 3P rom ote

telecom m uting

G o a lIm prove the env ironm ent

Specificity increases

Regular monitoring of progress to meet targets – updates based on technical analysis and public involvement

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Hierarchy in the Usual SequenceHierarchy in the Usual Sequence

Politics

PlanningPolicy

Programming

OperationsData

Projects

Define Emphasis Add Goals Add Projects

Goals

Objectives

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Usual Sequence with Strategic PlanUsual Sequence with Strategic Plan

Politics

PlanningPolicy

Programming

Define Emphasis Add Goals Add Projects

Goals

Objectives

Strategic Planning

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Strategic PlanStrategic Plan

Shorter term than planningVision-mission-valuesGoals & objectivesMonitoring of implementationReporting to constituentsUpdate regularly

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Rural TIP

TimeToday 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years

Policy-Planning Horizon and Roles

National -- U. S. DOT

Statewide -- PennDOT

Regional -- TMA, MPO

Local -- LDD, County government

Long-Range Planning

Policy -- ISTEA

Policy Plan -- PA Long-Range Plan

TIP

Programming -- SUM of TIPsStrategic Plan Strategic Plan Strategic Plan

List of projects

List of projects

TEA 21in 1998

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PennDOT’s Policy-PlanPennDOT’s Policy-Plan

Policy document --- 20 yearsStrategic plan (moving PA forward) --- 5

yearsPennPlan document --- 25 years, updates

every year

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TOOLSTOOLS

- Analytical- Institutional

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Planning ToolsPlanning Tools

Analytical toolsInventory = Complete electronic and non-electronic catalog of transportation system

components and condition

Management Systems = Information systems to update inventory (see PennDOT systems later)

Simulation Models = An electronic inventory with behavioral models

Forecasting = A toolkit of transport simulation models for scenarios

- Land Use, Demographics, Networks, Facilities, Vehicles etc.

Laws-regulations-rulesFederal laws = provide budgets, general guidelines, standards to achieve, and

“earmarks”

State laws= provide more detailed budgets and guidelines

State rules and regulations = prescribe implementation of laws

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Planning Tools & Innovations- Planning Tools & Innovations- New TechnologyNew Technology Legislation - Framework/Guidelines/Targets Policy & Plans - Framework/Guidelines/Targets Planning - Problem Solutions/Impact Assessment Programming - Implement Solutions/Funding Management Systems - Monitor/Collect

Data/Integrate Models Simulation/Models - Assess Success of

Innovations & Technologies

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“earmarks”



Monitoring & Management

Systems

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Management & Monitoring Management & Monitoring SystemsSystems Defined by Federal Legislation in 1991 This is one way to “think” about transportation

in an organized way Six Management Systems: Congestion -

Intermodal - Bridge - Safety - Public Transportation - Pavement

One Monitoring - Traffic All contain processes, procedures, technologies

(hardware - software), & information systems

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POLICYPLAN

(PennDOT)

Twelve YearProgram &

S.T.I.P

AnnualReport

Managementand Monitoring

Systems

ReviewGuidanceGuidance

Contiguous Programming Development Cycle

Periodic Policy Plan Input and Consistency Checks

Policy Plan Integration Activities

Long RangePlans

MPOs/LDDs

Public InputOther Agencies

Stakeholders

MPO TIPs/LDDPrograms

Public InputOther Agencies

Stakeholders

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“earmarks”



Simulation & Forecasting

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Typical Process for SimulationTypical Process for SimulationGoals andobjectives

SurveillanceReappraisalProcedural developmentServiceAnnual report

Continuing elements

Policy andtechnical development

Develop immediateaction plan

PennDOTMPOsTMAsLDDsLocal gov’tsCitizen participation

Transportationorganizations

Plan implementation

Land useTrip generationTrip distributionModal splitTraffic assign.

Calibrate models

PopulationLand useEconomicTrafficRevenues

Areawideforecast

= Part of the Sequential Demand Forecasting Process

Develop alternativesApply models

Land useTrip generationTrip distributionMode choiceTraffic assign.

Plan testing, evaluationand selection

Analysis of futurealternative systems

PopulationLand useEconomic activityTransportation systemTravel volumesTerminal and transfer

facilitiesFinancial resourcesCommunity values

Inventories anddata collection

DATA

Future Network Changes:•Policy Changes•Congestion Relief Policies

•HOV Lanes•Value Pricing

•New Transit Services•Geometric Changes•Rideshare Incentives•Land Use Changes•Information to Passengers

Input Existing System Data

Activity Schedule-what will occur

MOE's forBase Year

Future No ChangeFuture Changes

Traffic Simulation-results in actual travel times

and relative distancesbetween Activity centers

Route Selection-what route will be used to

travel from Activity A toActivity B

Mode Choice-how will the individual get

to the activity location

Activity Location-where will the activity take place

GIS Database

EXAMPLE: URBAN CONGESTION MANAGEMENT

MODEL

Simulation Model ExampleSimulation Model Example

OUTPUT=Estimates of number of trips, travel time, travel costs, modal share

per highway segment

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Output Example (GIS map)Output Example (GIS map)

Trafficvolume in

cars per hour

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“earmarks”



Mandates & Appropriations($)

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Legislation as a ToolLegislation as a Tool

Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA)- clean fuels, air quality standards and schedule

Intermodal Surface Transportation Act of 1991 (ISTEA) - management systems, intelligent trans. systems program, transportation centers

Transportation Equity Act of 1998 (TEA) - defined standards (e.g., 20% decrease in fatalities), directed grants to States, Regions, and Universities (for R&D)

State Safety Legislation - grants for safety improvements & ITS technology implementation

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Typical processes/proceduresTypical processes/procedures

http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/MassTrans/doc_pdf/Transfund.pdf

Safety in planning

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News from legislative frontNews from legislative front

August 10, 2005 – New Transportation Legislation Defines The National Framework

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/index.htm See also the agenda of the latest AMPO meeting Statewide:

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/factsheets/statewide.htm

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Questions?

1 POLICY-PLANNING- FORECASTING October 3, 2006. 2 Outline Background Role of Legislation, Policy,...

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