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H2020H2020H2020H2020----DSRDSRDSRDSR----4444----2014201420142014

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020

research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 652868

Overview of the PANDEM project

Máire Connolly, PANDEM coordinator

National University of Ireland Galway

Outline

l Current context

l What are the threats?

l Scope of PANDEM

l Outcome of PANDEM

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Influenza pandemics in 20th/21st Century

H1N1 H2N2 H3N2

1918: “Spanish Flu” 1957: “Asian Flu” 1968: “Hong Kong Flu”

40-50 million deaths 1-4 million deaths 1-4 million deaths

H1N1

284,000 deaths

2009: H1N1 Pandemic

Spread of 1918 Influenza Pandemic

Current context

• Decision 1082/2013/EU on Serious cross border threats to health

• European Court of Auditors – importance of protecting EU citizens from pandemics and other serious cross border threats to health, 2016

• OECD’s Future Global Shocks - cascading risks that become active threats as they spread across global systems – pandemic major threat

• WHO – new Health Emergencies programme

• World Bank working on financing pandemic preparedness

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What are the threats?

l Novel strain of known virus eg H1N1

influenza virus

l Newly identified species or strains eg

Zika, Ebola, SARS, Nipah…....

What are the threats?

l Poor biosafety leading to accidental

release from a laboratory

l Bioterrorism - deliberate release of a

biological agent e.g. anthrax

l Micro-organisms found to be resistant to

antimicrobial agents– MDR-TB, MRSA

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Source: Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

Prof Stephen S Morse et al Lancet; Volume 380, No. 9857, p1956–1965, 1 December 2012

PANDEM – Topic call DRS-04 – Specific challenge

• Pandemics pose a major health and security threat to EU citizens

• Improving capacity-building is key to fight epidemics and pandemics

• EU must increase its efforts to improve domestic and global risk assessment, surveillance, communication capability and governance

• Reducing disease transmission through public education is also crucial

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The origins of PANDEM…..

• Initial work on H2020 call in December 2013

• At the same time, Ebola was emerging in West Africa

• Late detection and ineffective initial containment measures led to a full scale global emergency

• Weaknesses in surveillance, communications and governance systems at national, EU & global level

• Poorly coordinated international response lacked the tools and systems to control the outbreak

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PANDEMPANDemic risk and Emergency Management

• Horizon 2020: Secure Societies Work Programme

• Phase I demo project

• Multi-disciplinary collaboration of seven institutions

• Project budget - €1.3M

• Project duration - 18 months started Sept 2015

• Project areas:

• Surveillance

• Communication

• Governance

Objectives of PANDEM project

• Review and assess current best practice for pandemic preparedness and response in three core areas

• Identify major gaps/improvement needs and research priorities

• Identify innovative solutions for improved technologies, systems and capacity that would reduce health, security, environmental and economic impact of future pandemics

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PANDEM work approach

WP6NUIG

Demonstration

concepts

Research and

training priorities

Road Map for

Phase II

WP1 - NUIG

Project Management & Co-ordination

WP2 FoHM

Threat analysis

Risk assessment

Surveillance

Best practice

User needs

Research priorities

WP3 IGS

Communication

Public

information

Best practice

User needs

Research priorities

WP4 LSHTM

Governance

Legal

frameworks

Best practice

User needs

Research priorities

WP5WHO

Integrated

solution

specification

Tools/systems

improvement

needs

Integrated gap

analysis

WP7 - NUIGAwareness Raising & Dissemination

Methodology of PANDEM

• Large-scale pandemic of sudden onset

• Review of tools, systems and practices at Member States, European Union and global level

• Review of previous EU research projects

• Key informant interviews

• Case studies: EU countries, USA and EU response to Ebola outbreak

• Expert workshops in Brussels: February and September 2016

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Source: The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

Dirk Brockmann, Dirk Helbing, Science 13 Dec 2013: Vol. 342, Issue 6164, pp. 1337-1342

• Disease spread analysed via the “effective distance” rather than geographical distance, two locations connected by airline flights are effectively close

• Applied to predict disease arrival times or disease source

PANDEM: SURVEILLANCE

PANDEM: Communications

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PANDEM: Diagnostics

THANK YOU!