1. Outline - Joint Global Change Research Institute · 7/16/2011 · China India Sasia Easia Oecd...
Transcript of 1. Outline - Joint Global Change Research Institute · 7/16/2011 · China India Sasia Easia Oecd...
1
1. Outline
1. Dialogue inter WGIII Exploring the impact of climate change on mitigation
capacity Exploring the equity, efficiency, political acceptability
space
2. Dialogue with WGII Alternative storylines that deliver the same level of
radiative forcing
Goal: reduce the dimensionality of the problem
2
2. WITCH and the RCPs
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
TOTA
L RA
DIAT
IVE FO
RCING (W
/m2)
MESSAGE -‐ RCP 8.5
AIM -‐ RCP 6.0
MiniCAM -‐ RCP 4.5
IMAGE -‐ RCP3-‐PD (2.6)
BaU Scenario
3
3. Impacts on mitigation capacity
1. Climate change feedback on the economy Standard damage function Extensive work to have a new generation impact model
(CLI-EMA, GLOBAL-IQ, YALE-FEEM Partnership) Cost-benefit for fine-tuning of climate policy
2. Adaptation and Mitigation Endogenous adaptative capacity
3. Impact of climate change on mitigation capacity
4
4. Damage function - global
-9.00
-8.00
-7.00
-6.00
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Global mean temperature (°C) above pre-industrial level
Perc
enta
ge C
hang
e of
Gro
ss W
orld
Pr
oduc
t
UNFCCC
WITCH LowDamage
WITCH HighDamage
MERGE
5
5. Damage function - regional Regional Damage Functions
-8.00
-7.00
-6.00
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Time horizon
Perc
enta
ge lo
ss in
GDP
EASIALACACHINASASIASSAMENATECAJAZKOSAUNEWEUROOLDEUROUSA
+ 2.5ºC - WITCH high damage function
6
6. Mitigation capacity Economic and social development
high
low
low high medium Climate change impacts
Mitigation capacity
7
7. New impact model
Joint work with Robert Mendelsohn at Yale University
Regional impacts on most sensitive sectors integrated into a single framework
Compatible with most IAMs
8
8. Impact as % of US land value
SRES B1 - 1.1-2.9 ºC in 2100
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
BCM2 CGHR FGOALS GFCM20 GFCM21 GIAOM GIER HADCM3 INCM3 IPCM4 MIHR MIMR MPEH5 MRCGCM NCCCSM
2020 2055 2090
9
9. Adaptive capacity in WITCH
10
10. Equity-efficiency
Robustness of incentives Coalitions' stability
Analysis of second-best policy tools
Sub-regional markets (or non uniform carbon pricing) vs domestic carbon taxes or global carbon markets
Are the scenarios that we draw plausible from a climate policy
point of view?
11
11. Potential for cost-benefit analysis
S1S2
S3
S5
S6S7
S8
S9
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
1.502.002.503.003.50
GDP losses in NPV
(at 5
% d.r.)
Temperature rise in 2100 (C)no CCS reference negative emissions
S4
Extremely important for the analysis of coalition stability
12
12. Mitigation capacity Economic and social development
high
low
low high medium Climate change impacts
Coalition stability
13
13. Implications of carbon taxes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
tCO
2-eq
per
cap
ita
China India Sasia Easia Oecd World
2050 2a
2050 1a
2005 1a
2050 2b
2050 2c
2050 3a
2050 3b
14
14. A three-dimensional matrix Equity
high
low
low high medium
Efficiency
Political acceptability (coalition stability)
15
15. Dialogue with WGII community
The "political feasibility" filter would restrict very much the group of relevant SSPs
Focus on SSPs that create a significant variation of a few key variables (GDP, level and distribution, technological progress…) for any (policy relevant) level of radiative forcing
16
16. The Rose Project Scenarios developed in the ROSE project => compare effects of
different assumptions on 1. Fossil fuel resources (oil, gas, coal) 2. GDP growth and convergence 3. Population growth
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
EJ
Primary energy
G10M_MMM
G8S_MMM
G14S_HP_MMM
G12F_MMM
G11FSC_MMM
17
17. Alternative scenarios - Pashmina
EU FP7 PASHMINA Project - http://www.pashmina-project.eu/ Scenario 1: Growing beyond limits: featuring the
strengthening of corporate capitalism Scenario 2: Growing within limits: a low-carbon economy
and adequate biodiversity protection can be achieved with currently identifiable technologies
Scenario 3: New welfare / beyond GDP: new techno-economic and social paradigm emerges
Scenario 4: Turbulent decline: failure to manage common goods, economic, societal and environmental collapse
18
18. Alternative scenarios
19
19. Final thoughts
1. It is possible to reduce the dimensionality problem by introducing the "policy feasibility" dimension
2. Impact community might be interested in a limited number of variables compatible with a given level of temperature
3. Many scenarios with about 3.7w/sqm, relatively new runs with 4.5w/sqm
Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milano - Italia - Tel +39 02.520.36934 - Fax +39 02.520.36946 - www.feem.it