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1. Operations Research - An Introduction
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Transcript of 1. Operations Research - An Introduction
Introduction toOperations Research
A B Raju
What is Operations Research?OR is a discipline that applies advanced mathematical
techniques to help institutions (private, public, non-profit) and individuals make better decisions. OR has recently been called “the science of better”.
http://www.scienceofbetter.org
OR focuses on finding ways to allocate scarce resources to activities often in an uncertain environment in order to “optimize one or more objectives”. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
(INFORMS) - http://www.informs.org
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Introduction to Operations ResearchOperations research/management science
Winston: “a scientific approach to decision making, which seeks to determine how best to design and operate a system, usually under conditions requiring the allocation of scarce resources.”
Kimball & Morse: “a scientific method of providing executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control.”
Partial list of OR topicsLinear ProgrammingNon-linear ProgrammingInteger ProgrammingDynamic ProgrammingDecision AnalysisMarkov chains , Markov Decision ProblemsQueueing TheoryGame TheorySimulationNetwork OptimizationStochastic Programming
Basic CharacteristicsApplies scientific methodsAdopts a systems approachUtilises a team conceptRelies on computer technologies
Some Examples of Typical Decision ProblemsHow many cars of various models to produce? What intensity of radiation to use in cancer treatment? How many outpatients to schedule every day? Whether to undertake a new project? Whether to invest in a particular stock? Which retirement
plan to choose? How many medical service centers to open in a county? How many warehouses to open? What and how much to stock in these warehouses? How many nurses to employ? Which doctors to have on call? How to schedule flights? How to route road traffic / air traffic? Whether to use two-finger screening or ten-finger
screening? How to schedule multiple projects? When to replenish inventory?
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Introduction to Operations Research
Provides rational basis for decision makingSolves the type of complex problems that
turn up in the modern business environmentBuilds mathematical and computer models
of organizational systems composed of people, machines, and procedures
Uses analytical and numerical techniques to make predictions and decisions based on these models
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Introduction to Operations Research Draws upon
engineering, management, mathematics
Closely related to the "decision sciences" applied mathematics, computer science,
economics, industrial engineering and systems engineering
Origins and Applications of OR Initial research in OR is typically attributed to World War
II.
The first formal activities of Operations Research (OR) were initiated in England during World War II, when a team of British scientists set out to make scientifically based decisions regarding the best utilization of war materiel.
After the war, the ideas advanced in military operations were adapted to improve efficiency and productivity in the civilian sector.
Eg.: What would be the width and the height of the maximum-area rectangle formed out of a piece of wire of length L inches?
ApplicationsSince the early 1940, OR has grown to be a vast field of study
with applications to Healthcare emergency/disaster management Telecommunications Finance business modeling Medicine logistics/transportation inventory management Manufacturing Sports engineering design Economics natural sciences e-commerce forest management supply chain management, …….
Applications Finance & Accounts
Dividend policy, portfolio mgmt, capital budgeting etc.,
Marketing Product mix, Ad & media planning, sales effort allocation etc.,
Materials Management Optimal buying, vendor analysis, transportation analsis etc.,
Production Facilities planning, manufacturing, maintenance etc.,
Personnel Manpower planning, training scheduling, skills & wages
balancing
General Management DSS, MIS, forecasting, project mgmt, strategic planning etc.,
Models & Modelling in OR
Models & Modelling in ORPhysical modelsSymbolic models
Verbal models : booksMathematical models
Descriptive models : organisation chartPredictive models : what if?Normative (or optimisation) modelsStatic models : EOQ modelDynamic modelsDeterministic modelsProbabilistic (stochastic) modelsAnalytical modelsSimulation models
The OR Problem Solving methodology
Solution
Formulation
Realization
Modelling
Analysis
Implementation
Monitoring
In Practice
Solution
Formulation
Realization
Modelling
Analysis
Implementation
Monitoring
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Feedback loopsat all levels!
*Adapted from Winston, Wayne L., Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms, 3rd Edition, Duxbury Press, 1994, p. 2.
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
• What are the objectives?
• Is the proposed problem too narrow?
• Is it too broad?
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
• What data should be collected?
• How will data be collected?
• How do different components of the system interact with each other?
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
• What kind of model should be used?
• Is the model accurate?
• Is the model too complex?
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
• Do outputs match current observations for current inputs?
• Are outputs reasonable?
• Could the model be erroneous?
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
• What if there are conflicting objectives?
• Inherently the most difficult step.
• This is where software tools will help us!
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
• Must communicate results in layman’s terms.
• System must be user friendly!
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Methodology of Operations Research*The Seven Steps to a Good OR Analysis
Identify the Problemor Opportunity
Understand the System
Formulate a Mathematical Model
Verify the Model
Select the Best Alternative
Implement and Evaluate
Present the Results ofthe Analysis
• Users must be trained on the new system.
• System must be observed over time to ensure it works properly.
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Successful OR Applications
Patel Products - Break-Even Analysis The Patel Products Company produces expensive and unusual gifts. The latest new-product proposal is a limited edition grandfather
clock. Data:
If they go ahead with this product, a fixed cost of $50,000 is incurred.
The variable cost is $400 per clock produced.Each clock sold would generate $900 in
revenue.A sales forecast will be obtained.
Question: Should they produce the clocks, and if so, how many?
Expressing the Problem Mathematically Decision variable:
Q = Number of grandfather clocks to produce Costs:
Fixed Cost = $50,000 (if Q > 0)Variable Cost = $400 QTotal Cost =
0, if Q = 0 $50,000 + $400 Q, if Q > 0
Profit:
Profit = Total revenue – Total cost Profit = 0, if Q = 0 Profit = $900Q – ($50,000 + $400Q) = –$50,000 +
$500Q, if Q > 0
Patel Products Co. Spreadsheet
34567
E FResults
Total Revenue =UnitRevenue*MIN(SalesForecast,ProductionQuantity)Total Fixed Cost =IF(ProductionQuantity>0,FixedCost,0)
Total Variable Cost =MarginalCost*ProductionQuantityProfit (Loss) =TotalRevenue-(TotalFixedCost+TotalVariableCost)
Range Name CellFixedCost C5MarginalCost C6ProductionQuantity C9Profit F7SalesForecast C7TotalFixedCost F5TotalRevenue F4TotalVariableCost F6UnitRevenue C4
3456789
B C D E FData Results
Unit Revenue $900 Total Revenue $180,000Fixed Cost $50,000 Total Fixed Cost $50,000
Marginal Cost $400 Total Variable Cost $80,000Sales Forecast 300 Profit (Loss) $50,000
Production Quantity 200
Analysis of the Problem
$
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
$160,000
$200,000
0 40 80 120 160 200
Revenue = $900 x
Fixed cost
Loss
Profit
Cost = $50,000 + $400 x
x
Breakeven point = 100 units
Management Science Interactive Modules
Sensitivity analysis can be performed using the Break-Even module in the Interactive Management Science Modules (available on your MS Courseware CD packaged with the text).
Here we see the impact of changing the fixed cost to $75,000.
Special Products Co. Spreadsheet
Range Name CellFixedCost C5MarginalCost C6ProductionQuantity C9Profit F7SalesForecast C7TotalFixedCost F5TotalRevenue F4TotalVariableCost F6UnitRevenue C4
3456789
B C D E FData Results
Unit Revenue $900 Total Revenue $270,000Fixed Cost $50,000 Total Fixed Cost $50,000
Marginal Cost $400 Total Variable Cost $120,000Sales Forecast 300 Profit (Loss) $100,000
Production Quantity 300 Break-Even Point 100
3456789
E FResults
Total Revenue =UnitRevenue*MIN(SalesForecast,ProductionQuantity)Total Fixed Cost =IF(ProductionQuantity>0,FixedCost,0)
Total Variable Cost =MarginalCost*ProductionQuantityProfit (Loss) =TotalRevenue-(TotalFixedCost+TotalVariableCost)
Break-Even Point =FixedCost/(UnitRevenue-MarginalCost)