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National Centers for Environmental Prediction:Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin
Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP
January 28, 2004
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Overview
• Define NCEP• Long Term Performance• Annual Operating Plan• Issues
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Define NCEP
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NCEP Mission Statement
NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.
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NCEP’s Strategic Vision
First choice for global and national climate and weather analyses, forecasts and guidance
First alert for all climate and weather hazards
Preferred Partner in developing numerical models and new weather, water, climate and space weather products and services
Striving to be America’s
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NCEP Center Locations
Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center
NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction Center
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131 Contractors/24 Visitors
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What Does NCEP Do?
Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions
Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and
Warnings Aviation Warnings
(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to
Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring –
geomagnetic storm forecasts
Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products
Model Development and Applications, including Data AssimilationOcean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave ModelsSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
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91998
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NCEP Budget FactsFY 2003 Allocations by Center
Center Labor Non-labor Total Reimb/LO FTEsOD $1,356,322 $3,574,400 $4,930,722 $45,000 10NCO $6,786,724 $22,441,300 $29,228,024 $677,640 74
EMC $4,751,618 $2,499,500 $7,251,118 $7,182,716 47HPC $4,297,118 $73,500 $4,370,618 $157,893 43OPC $2,401,397 $52,400 $2,453,797 $25,107 24CPC $4,892,284 $554,100 $5,446,384 $2,098,700 50AWC $5,314,155 $735,100 $6,049,255 $670,500 54SPC $3,281,498 $565,800 $3,847,298 $0 32TPC $4,215,427 $441,100 $4,656,527 $167,893 41TOTAL $37,296,543 $30,937,200 $68,233,743 $11,025,449 375
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NCEP Budget FactsHistorical Base Funding
01020304050607080
FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003
Fiscal Year
$ in
Mill
ions
$68.2$62.0
$54.8$50.1
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Government Performance and Results Act Scores and
Long Term Performance
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GPRA Scores
Performance Measure
Actual2002
Actual 2003
Goal2004
Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours)
124 nm 107 nm 129 nm
Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 Threat Score
.30 .29 .25
U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%)
18 17 21
NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures
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NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors
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TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors
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Hurricane Isabel
Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast
3-day forecast
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Period (hours)0
100
200
300
400
500Er
ror (
naut
ical
mile
s)
1964-1973
1984-1993
1974-1983
1994-2002
Isabel2003
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HPC QPF Verification1-inch Threat Score
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HPC QPF verification vs. the modelsDay 1, 1 inch
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HPC QPF verificationDay 1, 1 inch, Jan-Dec 2003
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D ecem be r 200 1 - Fe brua ry 2002 A bove N ormalB elow N ormal
Observed
Temperature
D ecem ber 1998 - Feb rua ry 1999
D ecem ber 1997 - Feb rua ry 1998
D ecem ber 1999 - Feb rua ry 2000
D ecem be r 2000 - Feb rua ry 2001
Forec ast(H alf M onth L ead)
H ow F ar in A d v an ce T h e F o reca st W a s M a d e(M o n th s)
0 .5 1 .5 2 .5 3 .5 4 .5 5 .5 6 .5 7 .5 8 .5 9 .5 1 0 .5 1 1 .5 1 2 .5L ea d
-5 0
-4 0
-3 0
-2 0
-1 0
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
Hei
dke S
kill
Winters
1995-961995*1996-971997-981998-991999-20002001-022000-01
(DJ F, J F M )
*J F M Only
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Other Measures
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Eta Model Performance MetricRatio of Annual 48h Precipitation Threat Score to 24h Score in 1999
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0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
JUL NOV MAR JUL NOV MAR JUL NOV
Num
ber o
f Mon
thly
Hits Access
introducedJuly 17, 2001
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
# of graphics produced per day 23180183333623 24774 28898
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Annual Operating Plan
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GPRA
NWS GOALS
NCEP GOALS
KEY DELIVERABLES
MILESTONES
BUDGET ALLOCATION
ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN
EXECUTIVESUMMARIES
NTOPELEMENTS
NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Agency Goals
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Performance MeasuresGoals/ObjectivesOperating PlansMilestones
NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Process
Nov.Dec.
LateSept.
MidSept
Early Sept.EMC/NCO1st draft
Aug.Service Ctr. 1st drafts(New NTOPS)
Jan.NCOWrkst rev.
Dec.EMCreview
NTOPS1st draft
Performance PlansFTE allocation
Final NTOPWhen budgetIs allocated
ExecutiveSummary
OpsPlan
AnnualOperatingPlan
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FY 2004 Annual Operating PlanKey Milestones
Management• Complete Transition of Space Environment Center to NCEP• Conduct Ocean Model Review• Improve IT Security Management Processes• Complete New NCEP Strategic Plan• Begin TPC/OPC Cross Training in Connection With Synergy Plan
Infrastructure• Begin Construction of New NOAA Weather & Climate Prediction
Center• Complete Central Computer System Upgrades• Install and Establish Backup Operations on NCEP Backup Computer
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FY 2004 Annual Operating PlanKey Milestones
Programmatic• Implement Breakthrough Climate Model• Expand Winter Weather Experiment• Implement the North American Monsoon Experiment Field Campaign• Participate in THORPex Planning Activites: Produce North American Plan• Make Decision on First Round of Joint Hurricane Testbed Projects• Produce Operational Global/Regional UV Index Contour Maps for DoD• Implement Day 1 Air Quality Forecasts for Northeast U. S.• Enhance Fire Weather Guidance Products• Begin Development of Wave Model (WaveWatch III) for Great Lakes Domain• Implement WRF Common Modeling Infrastructure• Implement Improvements to Global Forecast System• Upgrade NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System• Complete AIRS Assessment to Make Decision on Operational Use• Initial operating capability for US/Canadian Ensemble forecast system
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Issues
• FY 2004 Budget– Adjustments-to-Base– New Building– Backup Computer
• Space in WWB• Role of NCEP in NOAA’s New Strategic Plan
(Ocean & Environment)• Role of NCEP in Interactive Forecast Processing
System Era
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Appendix
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Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecasts48 hours
0
50
100
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Nau
tical
Mile
s
Nautical Miles ActualNautical Miles Goals
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U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill
-50
0
50
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Skill
Skill ActualSkill Goals
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Precipitation ForecastDay 1 Threat Score
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Thre
at S
core Day-1 Threat Score Actual
Day-1 Threat Score Goals