1 Millennium Development Goals Jan Vandemoortele UNDP, New York.
-
Upload
jaden-jordan -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
3
Transcript of 1 Millennium Development Goals Jan Vandemoortele UNDP, New York.
1
Millennium Development Goals
Jan VandemoorteleUNDP, New York
2
Three key questions
• Is MDG progress on track?
• Is ‘average’ progress reaching the poor?
• Are MDGs affordable?
3
25%27%
31%32%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2015
Actual progress Required progress
Poverty headcount in developing countries
(below $1/day)
16%
4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 1993 1996 1999
Most regions fail to reduce poverty(below $1/day)
SSASA
EA
LAC
MENA
5
12%9%
7% 6%
32%29%
17% 17%
1990 1993 1996 1999
$1/day poverty line National poverty line
Poverty trends in China
6
10391
132
166
223
8378705948
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Social progress is slowing down
(all developing countries)
U5MR
NER
7
Safe water
Maternal mortality
Child malnutrition
Gender equality
Basic education
Child mortality
HIV/AIDS
Poverty
Achieved To be achieved
No reliable and comparable data
1990 2000 2015
MDG progress in 1990s40%
8
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Ghana
Dom. Rep.
Philippines
Colombia
Indonesia
Zimbabwe
Late 1980s Mid/late 1990s
The poor & ‘average’ progress
(ratio of U5MR of bottom to top quintile)
9
Progress by-passes the poor
(children not completing 5yrs of education)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Bangladesh(93/94)
Bangladesh(96/97)
Peru (91/92)
Peru (96)
Lowest 40% Middle 40% Top 20%
10
Averages are deceiving
Different ways to meet a target• by improving situation of better-off• by increasing level for worse-off• any combination in-between
Evidence suggests most countries follow top-down approach
Groups that see fastest progress seldom represent the poor
11
Global cost estimates range from $50b-$100b+ per year
Differences depend on:absolute vs. relative unit costsmarginal vs. average unit costs regional vs. national average costsefficiency gains vs. quality costssavings from synergies implications of HIV/AIDSdomestic vs. external resources
Globally, MDGs are affordable
Are MDGs affordable?
12
MDG Core Strategy
Millennium Project
MDG Reports
Millennium Campaign
Operational support
Where do we stand?
What will it take?
How to raise profile and awareness?
What can we do about them?
14
Purpose of MDGRPublic advocacy – constituency
Customise targets
Concise assessment, jargon-free, not prescriptive
Based on existing data & analyses
Involving main partners
15
16
Two incorrect conclusions
World is on-track to halving global poverty by 2015
More growth automatically translates into less poverty
17
Risk of ‘misplaced concreteness’
Averages and aggregates help us understand complex realities more easily
But they do not exist in reality, only in the human mind
Risk occurs when unwarranted conclusions are drawn based on deductions from abstractions, not on real observations
18
“is not whether we add more to the abundance of
those who have much,
it is whether we provide enough for those who
havetoo little”
Test of our progress
FDR, 1937