1 [email protected] Tools for Success: Making Great Decisions in Your Career and Your Life.
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Transcript of 1 [email protected] Tools for Success: Making Great Decisions in Your Career and Your Life.
A quote from George Canning 1770-1827, British Foreign Secretary:
“Indecision and delays are the
parents of failure.”
The world is constantly throwing opportunities at people, and they react as best they can.
• Hey, I heard one of your old classmates got a position in London. Maybe she can get you a job?
• One of the incoming class had to back out, and there is a spot open in the fellowship. Should you try and grab it?
• Your Chair just invited you to be on a committee. But you are already fully booked, and is this the right committee for you?
• I just heard your significant other is moving to Paris. Are you going to move as well?
Decision making is difficult for two main reasons:
• It is difficult to obtain clarity on the course of action which will deliver the most of what you want.
• It is difficult to achieve alignment between all of the players who will play a role in translating the decision into realized (rather than potential) value.
Clarity & Alignment
Structuring:
Structuring
How are we defining the decision, and how are we
going to go about making it?
Objectives
Choices:
Structuring
Objectives
ChoicesWhat is the full range of
action open to us?
Knowledge:
Structuring
Objectives
Choices Knowledge
What do we know, and what don’t we know?
Quotes from Clayton Christensen (Author of the Innovator’s Dilemma):
• “How can you make sense of the future when you only have data about the past?”– You have to have a viable perspective
about why things might turn out differently than they did last time
• “The higher you go up the hierarchy, the less information is available.”– Data is heavy. It wants to go down, not
up, in an organization.– Information about problems sinks to the
bottom, out of the eyesight and earshot of senior managers.
Evaluation:
Structuring
Objectives
Choices Knowledge
Evaluation
How do each of the things we can do rate on the things we want?
Execution:
Structuring
Objectives
Choices Knowledge
Evaluation
Execution
Is everyone needed for successful execution aligned and committed?
A decision is an irrevocable allocation of resources.
If you decide, and then decide again when it is time to invest,
you never decided the first
time.
People, Culture, and Decision Process:
Structuring
Objectives
Choices Knowledge
Evaluation
Execution
People, Culture, and Decision Process
Do we have the right people involved, and are we making this decision in a way that makes sense for us?
Who should make the decision?
• The decision team should be explicitly identified, rather than implicitly assumed.
• The decision team should be the smallest group at the lowest level such that if they collectively agree they are unlikely to be overruled.
• Getting decisions made at the right level requires delegation, trust, and empowerment.
Structuring
Objectives
Choices Knowledge
Evaluation
Execution
People, Culture, and Decision Process
Which attribute limits the quality of a decision?
We use a simple scale to judge the readiness for decision making – the traffic signal.
Red means stop. There is not yet sufficient understanding to make a quality decision. At this stage you probably do not know the correct questions to ask.
Yellow means proceed with caution. Making a decision now is risky as there is much yet to do. The answers you have are now are not yet solid, and may continue to change.
Green means go. You have done sufficient work to make the decision. More work to refine will not be worth its cost. You have credible answers to most of the key questions.
Red
Yellow
Green
Focus the conversations on moving the reds to yellows and the yellows to greens.
Meeting 1 Meeting 2 Meeting 3 Meeting 4
Objectives Yellow Green Green GreenStructuring Green Green Green Green
Choices Red Yellow Green GreenKnowledge Red Yellow Yellow GreenEvaluation Red Red Yellow GreenExecution Red Yellow Green Green
People, Culture, & Decision process
Green Green Green Green
Getting to deeper shades of green on an attribute doesn’t help if other attributes are red or yellow.
Pale Green
Forest Green
Spring Green
Dark Green
The one page decision quality diagnostic:
What are we are trying to maximize?Have we considered the key objectives of each of the major players?
Does everyone understand and agree on the givens?Where does this decision fit within our organization’s priorities?
Do we have more than one choice, or is it “do it or don’t do it?”Is everything mild, or do we have a touch of wild?
What are our key knowledge gaps?What is the most interesting thing we think we know?
How does each alternative rate on the things we care about?Have we specified how we will measure the results after we choose?
Does everyone understand what has been decided, and are they aligned and committed to making it happen?What are the potential stumbling blocks for execution?
Is it clear who will make the decision and what the process will be?What cultural challenges arise from our selected choice?
Objectives
Structuring
Choices
Knowledge
Evaluation
Execution
People, Culture, & Decision Process
The decision process is really a project with a start, a middle, and an end.
• There are two types of people and two types of jobs in this world:
• Project people and jobs are used to dealing with things that have a start, a middle, and an end. Then they move on to the next activity.
• Process people and jobs are not used to ending things – their jobs go on indefinitely.
What happens when you treat a decision project as a process?
A quote from Mario Andretti, race car driver:
“If everything seems under control, you're just not
going fast enough.”
We address objectives by identifying the players and what they want.
• Identify the categories of players relevant to the decision. Players might include:
• Create a table with the players as columns, and the rows being their objectives from most to least important. Typically 3-5 rows will cover the important objectives.
Patients NursesPhysicians
Hospital management Department management
Employees Unions
Governments Regulators
Who are the players and what do they want?
Cost effectivenessPhysician commute
from homeQuality of medical
care
Physician satisfactionPhysician access to
colleagues at existing hospital
Member driving time
Member satisfaction Total compensationEase of patient
parkingWh
at D
o T
hey
Wa
nt?
Mo
st
Imp
ort
an
tL
es
se
rIm
po
rta
nc
e
Who Are the Players?
HMOManagers
PhysiciansAs Workers
Members(Patients)
Some of the objectives may be treated as constraints rather than criteria.
• How would you trade off safety with $? Environmental damage with $? Quality of patient care with $?
• Rather than treating safety and the environment as objectives to be traded off, consider treating them as constraints – any alternative we consider must meet all relevant safety and environmental rules and regulations.
Objectives – who are the players, and what do they want? (I)
Mo
stIm
po
rtan
tL
esse
rIm
po
rtan
ce
Wife Husband
Location with nice weather Location with nice weather
Harriet’s commute Attractive home and grounds
Access to nature / outdoors Harriet’s commute
Large enough should we have kids
Leo’s commute
Leo’s commute Ready to move in – no major projects required
Who are the players, and what do they want?
Wh
at D
o T
hey
Wa
nt?
Mo
st
Imp
ort
an
tL
es
se
rIm
po
rta
nc
e
Who Are the Players?
A quote from R. Buckminster Fuller(1895 - 1983) US architect, author:
“A problem adequately stated is a problem well on its way to
being solved.”
The Decision hierarchy:
Take as Given
Decisions to Make in
This Effort
Hold Until Later
The givens are phrased as explicitly and provocatively as possible to get clear reactions
from the decision makers.
• The working team commits to come back to the decision makers with insight and recommendations on all of the decisions in this category.
• Typically there will be 5 +/- 2 decisions to make now.
• The hold until later category contains the additional decisions which must be made for successful execution once the main choice has been made.
• Some of these decisions may be huge, but they should not be made until after the “focus on” decisions have been made.
A decision hierarchy focused our effort:
Number of Bedrooms City / Suburb Quality of View
Minor fix-ups (what to do, who to do them) Landscaping
We are looking to buy, not rent. We will not make an offer for more than $X. We
will make only serious offers that demand attention.
Neither average commute will be greater than 40 minutes.
We will not live in a fog belt. We are not fixit type of people, and need a new or
recently remodeled house that is ready to go.
Take as Given
Decisions to Make in This
Effort
Hold Until Later
Go out on a limb with your givens so people can agree or disagree with them.
• Useless given: • We like nice weather
• Valuable given:• We will not live in the
fog belt.
The decision hierarchy:
• • • • • • •
• • •
• • •
• • •
Take as Given
Decisions to Make in
This Effort
Hold Until Later
• • • • • • •
• • •
A quote by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair:
“The art of leadership is not saying Yes, it’s saying No.”
To address quarterly and annual focus, use the leadership agenda:
Ab
ove
th
e L
ine
Bel
ow
th
e L
ine
Take
Th
e L
ead
Gu
ide
Han
ds-
Off
The leadership agenda must be tied into your personal and team calendars.
Take
Th
e L
ead
Gu
ide
Han
ds-
Off
Ab
ove
th
e L
ine
Bel
ow
th
e L
ine
• Paper: Should we Exit lightweight coated (LWC) markets worldwide?
• Building: Engineered building materials strategy
• Building: Defend Dodesville lawsuit aggressively
• New Business strategy: energy trading company
• Energy: Plan for exploring & developing the Eileen basin
• Forests: Plan for filling timberland age gaps
• Building: Investment in expansion into Australia
• Forests: Improving regulatory relationships
• Building: Improve opportunities from pull-through
• Building: Use new customer database to increase responsiveness of sales force
• Forests: Benchmark silviculture costs and reforestation policies of competitors
• Paper: Improve effectiveness of JIT inventory management program
• Building: Operational improvement in Waitaki
These items appear on the weekly / monthly team meetings.
These items are not allowed on your calendar.
A quote by Mahatma Gandhi:
“A “No” uttered from deepest
conviction is better and greater than a
“yes” merely uttered to please, or what is worse, to avoid trouble.”
How to give a positive “No”:
The Power of a Positive No: How to Say No and Still Get to Yes, William Ury
• A positive No is a Yes! No. Yes?• Yes!
– Express your interests, Internally focused.• No.
– Assert your power with respect.• Yes?
– Further your relationship, Externally focused.
• Example: I appreciate your asking me to help out on this. But I am currently focused on a major effort which I have committed to deliver in the next two months. (Yes!) Because of this I am not taking on additional projects right now. (No.) But if you would like my help after this effort is finished I would be happy to consider it. (Yes?)
A quote from Bill Cosby, Comedian:
“I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please
everybody.”
What should be on your leadership agenda?
Ab
ove
th
e L
ine
Bel
ow
th
e L
ine
Take
Th
e L
ead
Gu
ide
Han
ds-
Off
About Leo Hopf:
• Leo Hopf works with senior executive teams to bring clarity and alignment to their most pressing strategic issues. He teaches “Decision Making in Organizations” to graduate students in the Management Science and Engineering department at Stanford University and similar topics to executives at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Business where he has been named a Fellow of Executive Education.
• He is the author of the forthcoming book “Rethink, Reinvent, Reposition: 12 Strategies to Make Over Your Business.”
• Hopf’s client engagements have included efforts to design the decision making and strategic planning processes for five of the Fortune 100 largest companies. He has led major consulting engagements in Indonesia, Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Kuwait.
• Hopf earned a Masters of Business Administration degree with highest distinction from the Amos Tuck School, and has B.S. degrees in Chemical Engineering and in Metallurgical Engineering from the University of Minnesota.
