1

Italian Firms,Global Markets

22 May 2012CCIAA Parma

Fabio Sdogatifabio.sdogati@polimi.it

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Table of Contents

1. The Global Scenario

2. Internationalization

1.1. The Great Recession

1.2. Great Divergences

2.2. Fragmentation of Production

2.1. Productivity

3

Japan

UK

USADEU FRA ITA ESP2.1

0.8

0.6 0.5 -1.9 -1.8

2.0

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2012

1. The Global Scenario

Forecasts: 2012 real GDP growth

1.1. The Great Recession

4

Mexico

China

Russia

Brazil

India

Turkey

3.6

2.3

4.0

8.2

3.0

6.9

1. The Global Scenario

Forecasts: 2012 real GDP growth

1.1. The Great Recession

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2012

5

1. The Global Scenario

Divergences between OECD and non-OECD countries:Contribution to annualized real GDP

1.2. Great Divergences

Sources: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 90, 28 November 2011

Note: Calculated using moving nominal GDP weights, PPP.

2007

2007

2007

2007

2008

2008

2008

2008

2009

2009

2009

2009

2010

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

OECD

Non-OECD

6

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Advanced economies

Euro area

Emerging and developing economies

Central and eastern Europe

Developing Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Divergences between OECD and non-OECD countries:Growth of emerging markets (GDP, 2001=100)

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, accessed on May 2012

1. The Global Scenario 1.2. Great Divergences

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1. The Global Scenario

Divergences between Europe and the US:Unemployment (%)

1.2. Great Divergences

2009

M01

2009

M03

2009

M05

2009

M07

2009

M09

2009

M11

2010

M01

2010

M03

2010

M05

2010

M07

2010

M09

2010

M11

2011

M01

2011

M03

2011

M05

2011

M07

2011

M09

2011

M11

2012

M01

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

United States Euro area (EU17)

8.3%

10.8%

Source: Eurostat, accessed on May 2012

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2. Internationalization

Ways out?

Productivity

Yet, from the Mediobanca–Unioncamere report:

“La presenza delle medie imprese nei settori convenzionalmente definiti high tech è marginale tanto a livello nazionale quanto nel Nord Est. Secondo la metodologia OCSE (basata sull’intensità delle spese di ricerca) l’alta tecnologia copre appena il 3,1% del fatturato.”

2.1. Productivity

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2. Internationalization

In Italy, high-technology (and productive) firms are very rare:

2.1. Productivity

Notes: VA = value added; CL = Cost of Labor

Source: Mediobanca and Unioncamere, based on OCSE data

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2. Internationalization

Labor productivity (output per hour, 2002=100)

2.1. Productivity

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201070

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

United States

FranceGermany

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Taiwan

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed on May 2012

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2. Internationalization

Value added by enterprise size class, non-financial businesses, 2008

2.1. Productivity

PolandRomaniaSlovakia

United KingdomGermanyHungary

IrelandFinlandLituania

Czech RepublicAustria

BulgariaEU-27

SwedenBelgium

DenmarkSlovenia

EstoniaLatvia

PortugalNetherlandsLuxemburg

SpainITALY

Cyprus

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Micro (1-9) Small (10-49) Medium-sized (50-249) Large (250 or more)

Source: Eurostat

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2. Internationalization

Number of persons employed by enterprise size class, non-financial, 2008

2.1. Productivity

Source: Eurostat

SlovakiaUnited Kingdom

GermanyDenmarkRomania

FinlandNetherlands

SwedenSlovenia

Czech RepublicAustriaIrelandEU-27

BulgariaLituaniaPoland

LuxemburgBelgiumEstonia

LatviaHungary

SpainCyprus

PortugalITALY

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Micro (1-9) Small (10-49) Medium-sized (50-249) Large (250 or more)

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2. Internationalization

Larger firms enjoy higher productivity:

2.1. Productivity

Source: Eurostat

Micro

Small

Medium-sized

Large

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

75.3

90.5

105.3

124.5

Apparent labour productivity (relative to total, %)

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2. Internationalization

Larger firms enjoy higher productivity:

2.1. Productivity

Source: Eurostat

Network energy supply

Mining & quarrying

Real estate activitiesWater, sewerage, waste & recycli

ngInformation & communication

Prof., scientific & technical activities

Administrative & support services

Transportation & storage

Non-financial business economy

Manufacturing

Construction

Distributive tradesRepair: comp., pers. & h'hold goo

dsAccommodation & food services

0 50 100 150 200 250

Apparent labour productivity, EU-27, 2008

Large en-terprises

SMEs

Thousand of € per person employed

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Freer trade due to falling protectionist pressures

Falling transport costs

Falling coordination costs

Globally integrated enterprise

High growth of per capita income in emerging countries

Slow growth and deindustrialization in high per capita income countries

AND Mode 2:

Global

Market

Seeking

BOTH Mode 1:

Global

Resource

Seeking

2. Internationalization 2.2. Fragmentation of Production

16

World

Indonesia

China

Slovakia

Germany

Thailand

Italy

Japan

China, Hong Kong

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Import Export

2. Internationalization

Share of intermediate goods in non-fuel merchandise trade, 2010.

2.2. Fragmentation of Production

Source: UN Comtrade 2011.