175

Notes

1 Introduction

1 David Watson (ed.) The Albanians of Rrogam, consulting anthropologist BeritBacker, video, Granada: Disappearing World, 1992; see also Ali Eminov, FilmReview, American Anthropologist, New Series, vol. 95, No. 2, June 1993, 515–17.

2 Marjorie Miller, ‘Family Feuds Are No Game in Albania’, Los Angeles Times,12 June 1999.

3 A significant literature has developed on the meanings of peace (Forcey,1989). Cox (1986: 127), in a philosophical discussion of the way the conceptis used in Western culture, argues that peace must be understood as a practiceof cultivating agreements. ‘We can keep a more accurate perspective on whatpeace involves if we do not think of it as a thing that we make or a state thatwe reach but conceive of it as a process we undertake. It is an activity inwhich we engage … It is a process of agreeing – the cultivation of a sharedcommitment to common expressions, projects and practices’. The view ofpeace as a process (Bailey, 1993) is thus linked to the cultivation of commonagreements. Adam Curle (1971) writes: ‘Peaceful relationships are those inwhich individuals or groups are enabled together to achieve goals which theycould not have reached separately.’ In contrast, ‘unpeaceful relationships arethose in which the units concerned damage each other so that, in fact, theyachieve less than they could have done independently, and in one way oranother harm each other’s capacity for growth, maturation or fulfilment.’

Robert Schumann, the founding father of the European Community,expressed a similar view to Cox’s: ‘Peace is not solely the absence of war, butthe achievement of common objectives and peaceful tasks undertakentogether’ (quoted by Alfred Tovias in Kacowicz, 2000, 150). This is expressedin more personal terms by the Indian teacher Sri Chinmoy: ‘Peace is not theabsence of war. It is the presence of love, harmony, satisfaction and onenessin the human family.’ (Notice at Sri Chinmoy Peace Mile, Cutteslowe Park,Oxford.)

4 The Buddhist conception of life as ‘Indra’s net’, in which each jewel reflectsand adds lustre to the others, expresses the idea well.

5 For discussions of conflict emergence by conflict theorists and in inter-national relations, see, for example, Kriesberg 1998, chapter 3; Bartos andWehr 2002; Galtung 1996; Northedge and Donelan 1971, pp. 51–91.

6 For example the Arab–Israeli conflict began as a nationalist programme onthe part of Zionists and resistance to it on the part of the Arabs who lived inPalestine. It then developed into a communal conflict, then after the estab-lishment of Israel it became an international conflict linked to an internalconflict, and subsequently it spawned important internal conflicts amongthe Israelis and between different groups of Palestinians and other Arabs. Araband Israeli nationalisms have defined themselves in relation to each other; inother words, actors and structure have defined each other. The conflict has

176 Notes

undergone drastic transformations and will no doubt undergo more beforethe conflict formation is dissolved.

7 A similar approach is taken in the rather sophisticated social-psychologicalunderstanding of conflict in the Buddhist world-view. Conflict arises out ofseeds, seeds of our store-consciousness, which hold the ever-present potentialfor anger and resentment and false-perceptions and grasping. These seeds arewatered and grow when we are hurt or suffer. They are then actualized as sus-picion, hostile attitudes and behaviour, and sometimes as violence. The sameseeds may continue to act over generations, so that the violence in a hurt suf-fered long ago becomes reborn in new people and re-enacted. So the conflic-tants tie a complex knot of emotions, perceptions and cognitions into whichthey and others become entrapped as they draw the knot ever tighter.

8 A.J.P. Taylor, ‘How War Begins – (4) The First World War’, BBC1, 1 August1977, quoted in Suganami (1996: 159–60).

9 Alternative scenarios could have included a local war between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, had Russia decided not to oppose Vienna’s attack onSerbia, an eastern front war between the Central Powers and Russia, hadMoltke been less rigid in insisting on the Schlieffen Plan, or a continental warexcluding Britain, had Berlin been more careful in avoiding actions thatwould bring Britain into the war.

10 For a discussion of causal powers and liabilities, which emphasizes thatcausality inheres in the causal powers of an object rather than the regularityof association of the cause and the effect, see Sayer (1992: 103–17).

2 A Theory of Emergent Conflict

1 Strictly, constant-sum and nonconstant-sum, but I adopt the common parlance.2 Galtung’s reference does not make the historical period entirely clear. Milan

was divided between three brothers in 1354: Matteo II, who died in 1355;Galeazzo II (1354–78), and Bernabò (1354–85) all of whom lavished expend-iture on the arts but were notorious for their cruelty and exorbitant taxation.The end of the twelfth century saw a long period of peace with growth ofagriculture and trade. In the thirteenth century there was internal strifebetween the city, which wanted to protect the rights it had gained, and thenobility who supported the Emperor Frederick II, who attempted to revokethese rights. The conflict centred in part on control of the city council. Thenobles hated its chief officer, the capitano del popolo. A civil war was pre-vented in 1258, through the Peace of St Ambrose, which declared the equalityof nobles and people. Soldiers chosen by the capitano del popolo exercisedeffective lordship until 1277, when Archbishop Ottone Visconti seized powerwith the help of the nobles. A further series of power struggles between noblefamilies continued up to and after the division of Milan between the threebrothers. Another conflict between brothers took place in the early sixteenthcentury when Milan became a centre of competition between France andSpain. Charles V took the Duchy for himself in 1535. Rapoport (1960) quoteshim: ‘I wish what my brother wishes, namely the City of Milan’. The refer-ence in Rapoport suggests that this may be the contest to which Galtung

referred. I have taken the idea of emergent conflict rather literally here bygoing back a further 200 years.

3 Boucher 1998: 173.4 Boucher 1998: 174.5 Boucher 1998: 61.6 Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, trans. Rex Warner,

Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1954, p. 49.7 Thucydides, p. 48.8 Machiavelli, The Discourses, ed. Bernard Crick, Harmondsworth: Penguin,

1970, II, 19, 335–6 (quoted by Boucher 1998: 101).9 Hobbes, Thomas, Leviathan, Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1981: 266 (quoted by

Boucher 1998: 145).10 Karl Marx, Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, 20–1 (quoted by

Boucher 1998: 364).11 For a critical discussion of the application of evolutionary ideas to social

change, see Sanderson 1990.12 If we know the shapes of the curves, we can estimate the point at which

differentiation occurs. For example, if the curves each took the formV � 1 � (S1 � e1)2, a geometrical argument can indicate that differentiationtakes place when the distance between the subgroups’ preferred positions is1/2 * �———

(S1 �—e1).

I have represented differentiation here with respect to one variable, forsimplicity of presentation. In practice social organizations operate in richenvironments and adapt to multiple variables. The viability or preferencecurves should therefore be seen as curves in several dimensions. A party’soverall welfare or viability will be some function of its welfare with respect toa number of variables. For example, if on a particular dimension welfare ismeasured by a bell-shaped curve such as V � 1 � (S1 � e1)2, on multipledimensions welfare might be Σai(1 � (Si � eii)2) or �ai(1 � (Si � ei)2). Theparty may have negative payoffs with regard to some variables, yet be viableoverall because these variables have a low weight in its overall viability.

13 A cognitive map represents logical or influence relationships in a systemsdiagram. For example, an actor would formulate links between perceivedinterests by linking one goal positively with another. These relationships canrepresent logical relations (such as: given interest X, the actor will adopt goal Y).If ‘you have cotton production’, then ‘you will seek westward expansion’.A complex set of logical relations, or a network of links between elements,can then represent relations between different actors. At the simplest, we canrepresent an emerging conflict using the ‘card-table’ representation developedby Howard (1999) from the simplified payoff tables used in the analysis ofoptions. Actors are seen to have a set of cards. In Howard’s representation,each card is a strategy, but here I will represent a card as a position that anactor can take with respect to a variable. For example, ‘develop cotton pro-duction’ might be a card an actor ‘plays’, while other possible cards such as‘develop mixed agriculture’ or ‘develop industry’ remain face down. Somecards are ‘tied’ together by functional relationships: if one has already beenplayed, then a tied card must be played. (An existing position determines agoal.) In this representation the columns show combinations of cards played

Notes 177

178 Notes

by the actors, so that each column represents a possible scenario, at onepoint in time. Having set up the scene in this way, actors can then alter theirpositions by discarding cards and picking up new ones. They can move tonew variables by taking up a new card. And indeed, an entire new actor canenter the scene. This representation has the virtue that it readily suggests theease of adopting new positions, and the dynamic ‘play’ of social change as cardsare taken up and discarded. It can highlight both the coming into being of aconflict when incompatible cards are played by different actors, and the scopefor exploring alternative scenarios by examining the play of different cards.

14 This variable may already exist, or the parties may bring into existence them-selves through their behaviour.

15 Collins 1981: 152–3.16 There may, of course, be a general benefit from specialization on products of

comparative advantage. But where one region has most of the strengths andanother few of them, uneven development intensifies inequalities.

3 Co-operation and Conflict Transformation

1 For a more recent analysis see the discussion of the Tragedy of the Fishers inBowles (2003).

5 Preventors of War

1 There is, as yet, little consensus on the explanation for these trends. Certainlythe Cold War appears to have been responsible for fuelling many conflicts, andwith its end armed groups have had to finance themselves from their ownresources or the spoils of war, rather than from a convenient superpower. Hegre(2004a) points out that the reduction in the number of civil wars in the 1990swas the result of increased termination of conflicts, rather than any reductionin the number of new conflicts. This makes it difficult to associate the drop inthe number of conflicts with any effects attributed, for example, to conflict pre-vention policies or the increasing numbers of democracies. Hegre 2004a: 243–52.

2 This describes the period after the collapse of the manor system in the Springand Autumn Period (�770–476). From this stage intensive farming developedbased on labour-intensive agriculture.

3 Hideysohi’s achievement was shared with his predecessor Oda Nobunaga(1534–82) and his successor Tokugawa Ieyasu (1542–1616). See Storry (1960:45–69).

4 The US claimed the right under the Monroe doctrine to intervene in a terri-torial dispute between Venezuela and British settlers in British Guiana. Atone point President Cleveland threatened that the United States would resistthe British ‘by every means in its power’. The British Prime Minister respondedthat the crisis risked ‘something of the unnatural horror of a civil war’.(Davidson and Sucharov 2001, in Kupchan et al. 2001: 101–37; Silver 2006).

5 Although the democratic peace proposition remains contested, the weight ofevidence appears to support it. The more restrictive the definition of democracy,the stronger the relationship appears to be. For a review of evidence for theproposition, see Oneal and Russett 1999: 423–42. For a critical view, see Barbieri

Notes 179

and Schneider 1999: 387–404. See also Russett 1993; Chan 1997: 59–91;Gleditsch and Hegre 1997: 283–310; Russett and Oneal 2001.

6 The leading liberal states, and especially the former colonial powers, havebeen much the most active prosecutors of armed conflicts since the end ofthe Second World War. The leading participant has been the UK, whichfought in 21 wars between 1946 and 2003, followed by the United States,which fought 16 wars and France which fought 10. The Soviet Union wasnext with nine, Australian and the Netherlands next with seven each, thenIsrael, Egypt, China and Thailand with six each.

7 Critics argue that the proxy variables that Collier and Hoeffler chose do notnecessarily capture the real factors in conflict as claimed. For example, thecentral claim that there is a strong association between the share of primarycommodity exports as a proportion of GDP and the incidence of conflictsmay not necessarily capture the ‘greed’ of rebels, but the institutional weak-nesses and political instability of oil-exporting states. Fearon and Laitin(2003) criticize the argument that the share of primary commodity exportsin GDP explains the ability of rebels to finance insurgencies. Nathan arguesthat political repression is mis-specified as a grievance variable, since it alsoaffects opportunity to rebel. These and other criticisms are discussed byNathan 2005. The iconoclastic contrast between ‘greed’ and ‘grievance’ exag-gerates the dichotomy between these two motives. Real conflicts are drivenby a combination of factors, in which both political and economic motivesand opportunities are important.

8 This was based on an analysis of civil wars with at least 1000 battle-deaths inthe period 1816–1992.

9 Jongmann 2002.10 Easterly (2000) reaches similar conclusions using different sources of data. He

argues that quality of institutions (based on the International Country RiskGuide) reduces war casualties on national territory and lessens the probabilityof genocide.

11 The report goes on: ‘effective structural prevention measures wouldstrengthen the capacities of States to avoid the type of protracted armed con-flict that weakened Afghanistan and enabled the rise within its territory oftransnational terrorist networks’.

12 The CPR team suggests that ‘the key characteristics of a society resilient toviolent conflict include:

1. Political and social institutions which are largely inclusive, equitable,and accountable.

2. Economic, social, and ethnic diversity rather than polarization anddominance.

3. Growth and development that provide equitable benefits across thesociety.

4. Culture of dialogue rather than violence.’

13 However, on cost–benefit grounds, they rule out increasing general aid to thelowest income countries as a security-improving instrument, since they cal-culate that a 2 per cent increase in aid to these countries would cost $24bn ayear, about ten times more than the economic benefits they calculate would

180 Notes

arise from the effects of the additional aid in preventing wars via the effect ofper capita income.

7 Emergent Conflict over Climate Change

1 IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001.2 For a worked-out example of this kind of evolutionary game theory approach

to bargaining, see Zott 2002: 727–53.3 The change of goals achieved here is from ‘business-as-usual’ to ‘restraint’,

which matches the shift from uncooperative to co-operative decision-makingdiscussed by Parson and Zackhauser, who see environmental decision-mak-ing as going from ‘unconcerned’ to ‘uncooperative’ to ‘co-operative’. Parsonand Zackhauser 1995: 212–34.

4 For a good analysis of the negotiations to date and their political back-ground, see Paterson 1996.

5 On these grounds, the Copenhagen Consensus report argued that otherdevelopment needs should take a higher priority than action to mitigate cli-mate change. Lomborg 2004.

6 The British government’s Stern Review is considering a zero discount rate,but others may take different views.

7 Damage � 100 * (�0.0045 T � 0.0035 T2). The formula is given in Nordhaus’sRICE model.

8 There is some evidence that the POLES model on which this is based over-estimates abatement costs, especially at high levels of abatement.

9 The Multi-Stage Scenario neatly combines several principles that have beenpressed for the design of a climate regime, including the principle that respon-sibility for carbon emissions and capability to respond should influence obli-gations, that countries with low per capita incomes should be exempt fromcommitments, and that the principle of equal per capita emissions shouldapply. For an account of how a combination of different preferences candecrease conflict of interest in multilateral negotiations, see Sebenius 1984.

10 For a discussion of alternative designs for a climate regime see, for example,Victor 2001.

8 Conclusions: Peaceful Change and Political Community

1 ‘In neither the everyday nor the narrower economic sense of the term doesrationality imply self-interest’, writes Herbert Gintis (2000). Not only is therestrong evidence of altruism and reciprocating behaviour, but also laboratorysubjects are loss averse and more status quo oriented than the utility-maximizing model would suggest.

2 Lewis Coser cites the accommodation of the Chartists as an example of con-flict management:

The Chartists first compelled attention to the hardness of the workmen’slot, and forced thoughtful minds to appreciate the deep gulf between thetwo nations which lived side by side without knowledge or care for eachother. Though remedy came slowly and imperfectly, and was seldom

Notes 181

directly from Chartist hands, there was always the Chartist impulse behindthe first timid steps towards social and economic betterment. The cry ofthe Chartists did much to force public opinion to adopt the policy of fac-tory legislation in the teeth of the opposition of the manufacturing interests.It compelled the administrative mitigation of the harshness of the NewPoor Law. It swelled both the demand and the necessity for popular educa-tion. It prevented the unqualified victory of the economic gospel of theUtilitarians.… The whole trend of modern social legislation must well havegladdened the hearts of the ancient survivors of Chartism. (Coser 1967,quoting Mark Howell).

182

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Index

195

adaptive learning 48Africa, climate change 147, 148agrarian societies

armed conflict 127–8economic welfare 122–3, 124–5family farms 127–8inequality see land inequalitylandlord–peasant relationship 86,

87, 93, 123, 129political conflict 123–4reform see land reformrevolution 123, 127–9structural conflict 121–2, 123wages 125, 137

Albanialand reform 1–2revenge killings 93–4

Allende, Salvador 135anarchy 4, 24, 26, 43, 90anocracies 112, 114Arendt, Hannah 3, 9–10Aristotle 22armed conflict

agrarian societies 127–8causes see causes of warcivil see civil warincidence 95, 96prevention see preventors of

warwar see warssee also conflict; violence

arms races 43, 98Arrenhius, Svante 147Association of Small Island States

(AOSIS) 146, 150, 154, 156Association of Southeast Asian

Nations (ASEAN) 110Athens 4, 23, 40–2, 54–5Atlantic Community 107, 172Australia, climate change 146, 148,

155, 156autocracies 114

Axelrod, Robert 26, 29, 38, 44, 49,53, 64, 77, 80

Azar, Edward 117

bands 98–9Bardsley, Nicholas 70, 71bargaining

bargaining curves 38bargaining theory 27–9climate change 163international relations 6, 7

behaviouralismGaltung ( Johan) 30peace and conflict researchers 85

beliefs, conflict of 64Bihar, Naxalite conflict 138Binswanger, Hans P. 129, 130, 145Bismarck, Otto von 86, 105Bloch, Marc 62Boulding, Kenneth 9, 26, 27, 30, 33,

34, 37, 43, 44Bowles, Samuel 123Brooks, Preston S. 52bucket brigade 48, 50Burton, John 78, 92Bush, George W. 155Buzan and Little 99Byrd, Robert 154, 157

Camp David Accord (1978) 92Canada, climate change 148, 155,

156carbon

abatement 159–62binding commitments/targets

154, 155, 156emissions 3, 78, 146–9, 154,

159–66emissions trading 155, 156Multi-Stage Abatement 162, 163,

180

carbon – continuedPer Capita Convergence 162–3sinks 148, 155see also climate change

Carr, E.H. 5–7, 10, 168, 173causes of war

background/proximate causes15, 16

First World War 15, 85–6preventors compared 15–17, 97–8

Chartism 180–1Chávez, Hugo 136Chechnya 5Cheney, Dick 158Chi Ch’ao-Ting 102chiefs

peace chiefs 100social stratification 62tribes 99–100

Chile, land reform 135China

classical China 101–3climate change 147, 148, 156,

166energy policy 158land reform 135

civic societies, norms 73civil war

American Civil War (1861–65) 4,50–3, 57–61, 169, 170

anocracies 112, 114autocracies 114definition 127developing countries 112economic development 112,

115–16land inequality 125–6low probability events 112OECD countries 116political instability 112–13regime types 112–15semi-democracies 114structural prevention 111–19see also wars

classclass interests 86political conflict 123

classical Greece 4, 22–3, 40–2,54–5, 169

Clean Development Mechanism155

Cleveland, Stephen Grover 178climate change

Africa 147, 148Australia 146, 148, 155, 156binding commitments/targets

154, 155, 156business as usual 150, 151, 163Canada 148, 155, 156carbon emissions 3, 78, 146–9,

154, 159–60carbon sinks 148, 155China 147, 148, 156, 166Clean Development Mechanism

155conflict transformation 164–6conflicts of interest 148, 149cost–benefit analysis 160developing countries 148, 154,

156discount rates 160emergent conflict 146–67emissions trading 155, 156energy policy 146–7, 157–9European Union (EU) 146, 155,

158, 159–60G77 154, 156, 157Germany 154, 155global damage estimates 161global warming 147–8, 151, 152impact 147implications for conflict 148–50India 147, 148, 156Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) 147,149, 159, 160

Japan 148, 155, 156Kyoto Protocol 154–6Latin America 148negotiation 154–7, 159–64North/South 146, 148–9, 150–3,

154, 155Organization of Petroleum

Exporting Countries (OPEC)150, 154, 156–7

payoffs 152post-Kyoto negotiations 159–64Russian Federation 148, 155, 157

196 Index

UN Framework Convention onClimate Change (1992) 153,154, 159

United Kingdom 155United States 146, 148, 154–6,

157Clinton, William Jefferson 154–5co-operation

atomistic individuals 72co-ordination 74conflict issues 56conflict transformation 77–81constructivism 26evolutionary theory 69externalities 82–4hegemony 73, 91identities 70interests 70international relations 8–9, 26modelling 69political 68public/social goods 68, 75reciprocation 69, 70, 72social change 20social groups 72, 73specialization 63, 76–7spontaneity 73theories 69–77trade 63, 73

cognitive mapping 80, 177cognitive theory, goals 46–56Cold War 92, 104, 108, 111, 114collective rationality 70Collier, Paul 113, 115, 116, 119–20Common European Home 172common identities 71common pool resources 171communities

community of citizens 10harmony 67interdependence 67interests 68political communities 3, 168–74security communities 7–9, 91, 98,

110sense of community 7–9

competitionconflict 30sub-groups 49–50

complex learning 70compromise, impossibility 38–9Concert of Europe 9, 86, 105, 107conference diplomacy 105conflict

amplification 89–91bands 98–9classical theorists 22–6competition 30contested goals 57–8contradiction 30, 31, 39, 46dampening 89–91emergent see emergent conflictethnic conflict 171intensification 56–7land inequality 125–9latent conflict 31prevention see preventors of warsegmentary societies 98, 99shaped by context 85–9spatial/social settings 86structural see structural conflicttheories 22–31viability 30see also armed conflict; violence;

warsconflict behaviour

evolutionary theory 42–4latent conflict 31payoffs 44

conflict formationchanging relationships 33Galtung ( Johan) 14, 30–1incompatibility 14, 30–1nested conflicts 86

Conflict Prevention andReconstruction (CPR) Team 119,179

conflict resolutiongoals 77–81issue conflicts 92

conflict transformationasymmetric 125climate change 164–6co-operation 77–81complexity 125context 91–4emergent conflict 13–14goals 14, 66, 77–81

Index 197

conflict transformation – continuedland reform 122meta-conflict 31

conflict triangle 31, 42, 88conflicts of interest

American Civil War (1861–65) 4,50–3, 57–61, 169, 170

escalation 59funnelling process 60horizontal differentiation 62incompatibility 19, 39–40intensification 59means of production 24–5measurement 29, 38, 77nineteenth century 4overt conflict 56–61Peloponnesian War 40–1polarization 2, 3, 4, 31, 44,

58–9psychological processes 59–60reduction 69social change 31, 32social organizations 37–40struggle for power 60–1threats 59utility space 37, 38vertical differentiation 62

Confucianism 102Congress of Vienna (1815) 105conscientization 125constructivism

co-operation 26interests/identities 10

contextconflict shaped 85–9social context 14–15temporal context 85–6

Coser, Lewis 25, 180–1Cousens, Elizabeth 17Covenant of the League of

Nations 106Crutwell, Charles 172Cuban missile crisis (1962)

110cultural conflict 63–5cultural evolution 49cultural violence 11Culture of Dialogue 174Curle, Adam 67, 125

Dahrendorf, Ralph 25, 26Dawkins, Richard 49de Soysa, Indra 126decision-making

economics 45, 160goal trees 49, 52interests 45, 46international relations 50

Deininger, Klaus 125, 129Delian League 40, 41democracy

civil peace 113–15democratization 109, 113–15,

125India 125, 139, 142, 143liberal peace 108–9

Democritus 22Determined Voter 71determinism 46Deutsch, Karl 7–9, 10, 173developing countries

advanced developing countries(ADCs) 156

civil war 112climate change 148, 154, 156least developed countries (LDCs)

156direct violence 11, 12Douglas, Stephen Arnold 51Dugan, Mairie 86dynastic states 105

ecological violence 11economic development

civil war 112, 115–16land reform 130liberal peace 106

economic welfare, agrarian societies122–3, 124–5

economicsdecision-making 45, 160theory of firms 30

education, preventors of war 118Egypt

Camp David Accord (1978) 92land reform 136–8

El-Ghomeny, M. Riad 133, 134, 137

emergent conflict

198 Index

climate change 146–67conflict transformation 13–14evolutionary theory 32–46flow chart 55–6theory 32–65see also conflict

empireshegemony 105Mesoamerica 100suzerain systems 97, 101

Englandpolitical community 170political unification 103, 173social conflict 93see also United Kingdom

environmentclimate see climate changeexogenous change 42social organizations 35

escalation 59Estonia 5, 171Eswaran and Kotwal 123, 124ethnic conflict 171Etzioni, Amitai 75, 87Europe

Concert of Europe 9, 86, 105, 107

Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) 110, 171, 172

state system 97, 104–6European Union (EU)

carbon emissions 155, 159–60climate change 146, 155, 158,

159–60Copenhagen conditions 109,

180energy policy 146, 158liberal peace 109structural stability 17

evolutionary theoryactors and interests 45–6adaptation 49co-operation 69conflict behaviour 42–4emergent conflict 32–46framework 33–40selective retention of rules 48social dynamics 30

expressive rationality 71externalities

co-operation 82–4interdependence 74

Fearon and Laitin 113, 127feudalism 62, 63, 87, 93First World War

Atlantic Community 107causes 15, 85–6trench warfare 72–3

Fisher and Ury 92fisheries 171Flannery and Marcus 100Food and Agriculture Organization

(FAO) 126, 127Foucault, Michel 17Franz Ferdinand (archduke of

Austria) 15fraternal interest groups 99

Galtung, Johan 11–12, 20–1, 26–7, 30–1, 42, 47, 61, 67, 78, 88, 125

game theory 27, 30, 37Gandhi, Mohandas Karamchand

87, 143gender violence 11Germany

climate change 154, 155political community 170–1

Gilbert, Margaret 71globalization, governance 97–8Gluckman, Max 25goals

alignment 69–70cognitive theory 46–56compatibility 66conflict transformation 14, 66,

77–81contested goals 57–8formulation 46–56general good 68goal trees 49, 52, 78–80harmony 66–7milieu goals 75payoffs 48–9politics 45possession goals 75

Index 199

goals – continuedreflective model 50shared goals 79social groups 45, 49social organizations 45–6substituted goals 79

Goddard Institute of Space Sciences 148

gold standard 107Gorbachev, Mikhail Sergeyevich 172governance

globalization 97–8international governance 106preventors of war 117

Gowrie, K.R. 143Greece, Peloponnesian War 4, 23,

40–2, 54–5, 169Gurr, Ted Robert 113, 117

harmonycommunities 67give-and-take 6goals 66–7interests 77hegemonyco-operation 73, 91stability 91

Hegre, Håvard 108, 112, 114, 115, 116Heller, Patrick 143Henderson and Singer 115Henry VII (king of England) 103Hicks, John 62, 63Hideyoshi, Toyotomi 103, 104, 178historical trends

preventors of war 96–106social organizations 32

Hobbes, Thomas 4, 16, 17, 24, 99Holland, John H. 48, 50Hollis, Martin 71Holsti, J.J. 105Homer-Dixon, Thomas 149horizontal differentiation 62Howard, Michael 80, 87, 106, 173human rights, preventors of war

117–18

Iceland 94identities

co-operation 70

common 71constructivism 10cultural conflict 63–4

IF-THEN rules 53, 54incompatibility

conflict formation 14, 30–1conflicts of interest 19, 39–40

Indiaclimate change 147, 148, 156communal divisions 5democracy 125, 139, 142, 143ethnic conflict 171Kerala see Keralalandlord and tenant 139National Sample Survey 126political parties 139–40

individual rationality 71industrialization 93institutions

persistent sets of rules 74political stability 116–17

integrationgoals 69sense of community 7–9

intensification 59interaction capacity 26interdependence

communities 67externalities 74preferences 75

interestsclass interests 86co-operation 70collective 71, 72communities 68conflicting see conflicts of

interestconstructivism 10evolutionary theory 45–6harmony 77interest groups 45self-interest 68, 71

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 147,149, 159, 160

international governance 106International Labour Organization

(ILO) 127Israel, Camp David Accord (1978) 92

200 Index

Japanclimate change 148, 155, 156energy policy 158land reform 134

Jefferson, Thomas 58judicial settlement 6

Kadaré, Ismail 93Kaldor, Mary 73Kant, Immanuel 73Kaplan–Meier survival estimates 133Keegan, John 100Kelly, Raymond C. 98, 99Keohane, Robert O. 26, 67, 73, 74,

91, 111Kerala

caste oppression 138, 139, 142compensation 142democracy 125, 142, 143hutment dwellers 140–1land reform 121, 122, 138–43,

172literacy 138, 139Malabar 138–9Moplah revolt (1921) 138–9political change 142religious groups 138–9social change 142social mobility 142social mobilization 122, 142–3staged reform 142see also India

Khatami, Sayed Mohammad 174kinship, bands 99Kosovo 109, 118kula ceremony 99Kupchan, Charles A. 172Kyoto Protocol

climate change 154–6future scenarios 163–4post-Kyoto negotiations 159–64

Ladejinsky, Wolf 135land inequality

civil war 125–6conflict 125–9conflict formation 86, 87Gini index 125, 126, 137inequality–violence nexus 127

landlord–peasant relationship 86,87, 93, 123, 129

origins 122–5political mobilization 121, 128revolutionary violence 127–9structural conflict 121–2, 123

land reformAlbania 1–2armed conflict 132–3Chile 135China 135collectivization 122, 130compensation 134, 136, 137, 140,

142conflict transformation 122de-collectivization 130, 135economic development 130economic welfare 124–5, 134Egypt 136–8Japan 134Kerala 121, 122, 138–43, 172‘land to the tiller’ 130, 140Latin America 135–6, 145limits on holdings 137, 141, 143mobilization 122, 125, 128–9negotiation 125, 130parliamentary means 135, 139–40peace periods 133–4peaceful change 121–45peaceful process 134–8, 144–5political parties 125, 139–40redistribution 130, 136, 137revolutionary change 130significant reforms 130–2social movements 135Taiwan 134–5twentieth century 129–30Venezuela 135–6

landlord and tenantIndia 139landlord–peasant relationship 86,

87, 93, 123, 129landlordism 139secure tenancies 130

latent conflict 31Latin America

climate change 148hacienda-based agriculture 129, 145land inequality 129

Index 201

Latin America – continuedland reform 135–6, 145revolution 129, 136

Law of the Sea treaty 73leadership groups 45League of Nations 106, 107learning

adaptive 48complex 70reflective 47simple 70

Lee, J.S. 102legitimacy

authority 25international relations 6

liberal peacedemocracy 108–9four freedoms 107gold standard 107industrial development 106major power war 110policy implications 120regional organizations 109–10rise 106–11see also peace

Lincoln, Abraham 60–1Lippman, Walter 107Lloyd George, David 107Lords of Milan 20–2, 27–9, 78,

176–7

Machiavelli, Niccolò 23Marx, Karl 24–5, 26, 46, 93mass movements 45Melian dialogue 23meta-conflict 31Mexico, war/state evolution 100Midlarsky, Manus I. 126Milan, Lords of Milan 20–2, 27–9,

78, 176–7military technology

early states 100European state system 97feudalism 62weapons of mass destruction 110

mobilizationland reform 122, 125, 128–9political mobilization 121, 128social mobilization 122, 142–3

Monnet, Jean 109Monte Albán 100Muller and Seligson 126Muste, A.J. 174

Namboodiripad, E.M.S. 141, 143Nasser, Gamal Abdel 136, 137natural selection 49negotiation

climate change 154–7, 159–64land reform 125, 130Law of the Sea treaty 73

neo-realism 24, 26Northern Ireland 92Nossiter, T.J. 139, 140

Oomen, M.A. 142Organization of American States

(OAS) 110Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC) 150, 154,156–7

Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)110, 171, 172

Ostrom, Elinor 171

Pareto optimum 27, 28, 153particularist periods 105Patomäki, Heikki 9–11, 73, 125,

174payoffs

climate change 152conflict behaviour 44goals 48–9

peacecivil peace 113–15liberal peace 106–11, 120meaning 175peace building 17–18peace chiefs 100peaceful public space 73perpetual peace 73positive peace 11, 12, 13, 175stable peace 9trade 99zones of peace 8, 95, 110

Peace of Utrecht (1713) 105Peace of Westphalia (1648) 104

202 Index

peaceful changeconditions 170–3debate 4–10idealism 5–7land reform 121–45meaning 10–13political community 3, 168–74power transitions 5realism 5–7republican approach 9–10security communities 7–9strong sense 12, 66UN Charter 12, 106, 168–9weak sense 12, 66

Peloponnesian War 4, 23, 40–2,54–5, 169

Pericles 41Pierce, Franklin 51, 52Pillai, Ramachandran 143Plato 22plural subjects 72, 73pluralism

conflict theories 25, 26security communities 7

Polanyi, Michael 107polarization 2, 3, 4, 31, 44, 58–9political community, peaceful change

3, 168–74political instability, civil war

112–13political mobilization, land inequality

121, 128political parties

India 139–40land reform 125, 139–40United States 51–2, 58–9

political stability, institutions116–17

politicsgoals 45political communities 3, 168–74political representatives 46

positive peace 12, 13post-structuralism 26

conflict theories 26potential realization 11preventors of war

causes compared 15–17, 97–8civil war 111–19

classical China 101–3early states 100–1education 118factors 15–16governance 117historical trends 96–106human rights 117–18international wars 110–11liberal peace 106–11peace building 17–18peace chiefs 100policy implications 119–20political community 173–4structural prevention 111–19theory 95–120

Princip, Gavrilo 15prisoner’s dilemma 28, 29, 68, 70,

74, 93Prosterman and Riedinger 125, 126Pruitt and Rubin 78public/social goods

co-operation 68, 75conflict dampening 90, 91

Raknerud and Hegre 108Rasmussen, Mikkel Vedby 108realism

conflict theories 26human agency 24international relations 24neo-realism 24, 26peaceful change 5–7structural realism 26

realization 11, 12reciprocation 69, 70, 72reflective learning 47regional organizations

EU see European Unionliberal peace 109–10

religion, classical China 101religious groups

cultural conflict 64Kerala 138–9

republican approach 9–10revolution

crisis in the state 123Latin America 129, 136revolutionary violence 127–9

Richard III 103

Index 203

Richardson, Lewis 26, 30, 43, 44Roosevelt, Franklin Delano 107Rosecrance, Richard 111Russett, Bruce M. 125Russian Federation, climate change

148, 155, 157

Sambanis, Nicholas 112, 113Saudi Arabia 146, 158, 166Schuman, Robert 109, 175security communities

international relations 98, 110peaceful change 7–9pluralism 7

Sen, Amartya 12, 68, 75Serbia 86Shih Huang Ti 101, 103short-side power 123, 143Simmel, George 25–6simple learning 70Skocpol, Theda 123slavery

structural conflict 61United States 4, 50–3, 58, 59, 61

social capacity 14–15social change

co-operation 20conflicts of interest 31, 32divergent responses 2social conflict 24social relationships 33United States 4

social choices 68social context 14–15social dynamics, evolutionary

theory 30social evolution 49social forces, statistical

determinism 46social groups

co-operation 72, 73formation 72goals 45, 49sub-groups 49–50, 54, 72

social mobilization, land reform122, 142–3

social movementsland reform 135mass movements 45

power relations 121social order 17, 87, 90social organizations

behavioural change 43collective interests 72conflicts of interest 37–40cultural dimension 64environment 35goals 45–6historical trends 32logico-meaningful entities 64social preferences 36–7theoretical propositions 33–4values/variables 34viability 34–5

social stratification, chiefs 62social structure 24social systems, historical trends 32social transformation, political

communities 3social/public goods, co-operation

68, 75societies

military specialists 97norms 73segmentary 98, 99unsegmented 98without organized warfare 97

Sommerhof, G. 47, 55, 79Sorokin, Pitirim Alexandrovich 64,

102sovereignty, monopoly of violence

4, 16Sparta 4, 23, 40–2, 54–5specialization, co-operation 63,

76–7Spengler, Oswald 65Sri Lanka 86stable peace 9Stern, Nicholas 149, 180structural conflict

agrarian societies 121–2, 123conflict of interest 61–3conscientization 125land inequality 121–2, 123slavery 61

structural realism 26structural stability 17structural violence 11

204 Index

structuralism, conflict theories 26,30

Sugden, Robert 70Sumner, Charles 52systems theory 87–8

Taiwan, land reform 134–5Taylor, A.J.P. 15teleology 47, 65, 169Thirty Years War (1618–48) 92Thrasymachus 22threats 59Thucydides 4, 23, 41Tokugawa Ieyasu 103trade

co-operation 63, 73emissions trading 155, 156peaceful relations 99preventor of war 108

transformationconflict see conflict transformationsocial transformation 3

Treaty of Maastricht (1992) 109Treaty of Versailles (1919) 107tribes 99–100trigger conditions 15, 16, 23, 86Tudor dynasty 103

UN Charter, peaceful change 12,106, 168–9

UN Framework Convention onClimate Change (1992) 153,154, 159

UN Human Development Index115

UN Peace-building Commission120

United KingdomAvoiding Dangerous Climate

Change 148Chartism 180–1climate change 155relations with USA 107, 108, 172see also England

United StatesAmerican Civil War (1861–65) 4,

50–3, 57–61, 169, 170arms race 98Byrd–Hagel Resolution (1997) 154

climate change 146, 148, 154–6,157

Compromise (1850) 51energy policy 158Kansas 50–3, 57Missouri Compromise (1820–21)

50, 51, 58political parties 51–2, 58–9popular sovereignty 51relations with UK 107, 108, 172slavery 4, 50–3, 58, 59, 61social change 4Venezuela dispute (1895–96) 107,

178westward migration 45–6Wilmot Proviso (1846) 50

universalist periods 105utilitarianism, self-interest 68utility curves 38

Varshney, Ashutosh 171Väyrynen, Raimo 125Venezuela

dispute (1895–96) 107, 178land reform 135–6

vertical differentiation 62viability

conflict theories 30social organizations 34–5viability curves 34, 35, 37, 43

violenceinequality–violence nexus 127peaceful change compared

11–12revolution 127–9sovereignty 4, 16structural violence 11see also conflict

Wall Street Crash (1929) 107Wallensteen, Peter 105wars

American Civil War (1861–65) 4,50–3, 57–61, 169, 170

causes see causes of warearly human history 98First World Warinternal see civil warmajor power war 110

Index 205

wars – continuedPeloponnesian War 4, 23, 40–2,

54–5, 169prevention see preventors of war‘sons of the soil’ 129Thirty Years War (1618–48) 92trigger conditions 15, 16, 23, 86

Wendt, Alexander 26, 44, 46, 68, 70, 92

Wilson, Thomas Woodrow 107Wolfers, Arnold 75World Bank 119

Yugoslavia 109

zero-sum conflict 20–1, 90zones of peace 8, 95, 110

206 Index