CIVE 3045 Numerical Modeling & Risk Analysis

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Mission

•To prepare you to

effectively use

models and statistics

in your CE courses

and career

•To build your Excel

and Visual Basic skills

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CIVE 3045 Focus

•Numerical Modeling

models are a standard tool

in engineering practice

•Risk Analysis

much of what we deal with

in engineering is random

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Why Modeling?

• Models are approximations

of reality that are used to

solve specific problems

• They are usually constructed

on computers

• They are widely used in

engineering practice

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Why Statistics?

• Many variables in engineering

are uncertain

• Probability and statistics are

tools to handle uncertain

variables

• They are also widely used in

engineering

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Engineering Requires Making Decisions

The engineering process

requires:

•Analyzing Data

•Computing Skills

•Applying Basic Principles

•Problem Architecture

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Engineering Requires Making Decisions

Data Information Knowledge Decisions

How can MODELS help?

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DATABASE MODELS

USER INTERFACE

Decision Support Systems

We will design

our spreadsheets

to have these

three components

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Focus on Modeling

1. Give examples of engineering models and model development

2. The modeling process is more important than the software used

3. Develop enhanced EXCEL computing skills

4. Demonstrate the appropriate use of statistics

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Why Excel and VB?

• Widely available and relatively cheap

• Commonly used by engineers

• Many built-in tools for calculations,

modeling,

data analysis, graphing, statistics, etc.

• Includes a spreadsheet environment

and a programming environment (VBA)

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The modeling process and the probability and statistics concepts are general!

CIVE3045 Introduction

Course Topics

Modeling

• Simulation models

• Optimization models

• Excel and Visual Basic tools

Probability and statistics

• Calculating probabilities and risks

• Descriptive statistics and data analysis

• Regression analysis

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Course Topics

Other subjects

• Engineering ethics

• Engineering reports

• Engineering presentations

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Course Activities: LecturesPurpose

• Concepts will be introduced during lectures

Handouts

• Print and bring lecture handouts to class for taking notes (available 24 hrs in advance)

Etiquette

• Please turn off cell phones in class and labs

• Please do not arrive late or leave lecture early

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Course Activities: HomeworkPurpose: Apply the concepts from the

lectures

• Assigned each Tuesday

• Due the following Tuesday at 7:55

• Show your work, clearly identify your answers

• Late homework is not accepted

• Must be your own work

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Every calculation done individually, and every cell coded individually. Solutions send to instructor’s email on due dateCIVE3045 Introduction

Course Activities: Projects Three laboratory projects

– Develop an Excel model

– Write an engineering report

Model

– Must follow supplied Excel template

– Send completed spreadsheet file to instructor’s email in .xlsm format

Report

– Must follow supplied layout for report

– Submit printed report at the start of class

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Course Activities: Projects

Both model and report must be your own work

Late projects are not accepted Always save backup versions of your

model

You can submit versions to instructor’s email before the deadline

If you wait until the last minute to submit, you accept the consequences of all possible problems

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Grade DeterminationLecture Part

Attendance 5%

• Homework assignments 20%

• Midterm exam 25%

• Final exam 25%

Lab Part

• Project models 20%

• Project reports 5%

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Department policy requires that you pass both the lecture and lab parts to pass the courseCIVE3045 Introduction

Resources

Text books

1. Probability and Statistics, Murray R. Spiegel, John

J. Schiller, R. Alu Srinivasan. Second Edition

(Schaum’s Outlines). McGraw-Hill, 2000

2. Probability and Statistics for Engineers and

Scientists, Walpole – Raymond. H, Myers and

Sharon L.Myers. Sixth Edition. (Xác suất và Thống

kê dành cho các kỹ sư và các nhà khoa học)

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