1 International Helicopter Safety Team May 2007 1 Metrics: Are We Meeting the 80% Reduction Goals? 3...

1 1International Helicopter Safety Team May 2007

Metrics: Are We Meeting the 80%

Reduction Goals?

3 May 2007AHS Forum 63

Roy FoxChief, Flight Safety

Bell HelicopterJHSAT


International Helicopter Safety Team (IHST) IHST• Goal settings & Worldwide InvolvementJHSAT (Joint Helicopter Safety Analysis Team)

• Identify root causes and interventions – Accident data is regional driven

• Measure actual fleet effectiveness toward 80% reductionJHSIT (Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team)

• Develop Implementation approaches and implement interventions.

• Implementation is primarily regional controlled • Measure implementation progress.


JHSAT Dilemmas• Intervention recommendations to be data & frequency

driven. • Different pockets of accident datasets exist around the

world.• Some Government reports are not released to the public,

(military service, etc.).• Accurate fleet flight hours are not available in most

countries.

• Different operating rules, regulations and limitations. Implementation driven within a country regulations although some interventions may be done voluntary.

• Country stakeholders are part of the solution within their country. Must consider regional limitations.


JHSAT Teams• US JHSAT Lead Group: Assist regional JHSAT Teams • Same analysis technique, format worksheet• Using their regional accidents.• JHSAT Regional Teams:

– Their purpose is to identify root causes and interventions of their accidents so can be passed to their region’s JHSIT Team.

• US JHSAT Lead Team: Regional Teams’s Outputs used for JHSATs coordination worldwide. We learn from each other.

• JHSAT to measures IHST progress toward 80% reduction goals• Worldwide• By country• By participation in IHST

METRICS: Allow redirection of efforts. Refocus


24 Years - Little Change

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Aircraft Powerplant Auxilary Equipment Human Performance Environment / Facilities Unknown

* Last year high “unknown” due to accident investigations still in progress. Likely to end up same % as previous years .


Subject Fleet: Manufactured Helicopters

• Includes: – Civil certificated models (47, R22, 206B, S-76,etc.)– Military helicopter qualified for military but now

flying on civil registries (Military Surplus)

• Not included: – Homebuilt (amateur) helicopters– Kit helicopters– Gyroplane/gyrocopters


2016

Start Points ?


Year 2000 Accident

Slice (Known Minimum)

Country of Registry2000

Accidents % AllUnited States (Civil) 195 36.6%

U.S. Military 109 20.5%Canada 46 8.6%UK: England, Scotland, Wales 27 5.1%France 14 2.6%Australia, Russia 13 ea. 4.9%South Africa 10 1.9%Brazil, Switzerland 8 ea. 3.0%Germany, Italy, New Zealand 6 ea. 3.4%Mexico, Indonesia 5 ea. 1.9%Argentina, Japan, Sweden 4 ea. 2.3%Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Malaysia, Thailand 3 ea. 2.8%Greenland, Guatemala, Philippines, Romania, South Korea, Taiwan, Venzuela 2 ea. 2.6%Algeria, Austria, China, Denmark, India, Iran, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Spain, Swaziland, Turkey, Turks & Caicos, UAE

1 ea. 3.9%

Worldwide Accidents 533 100.0%

Bell worldwide manufactured helicopter database using common accident definition.

Databank being continually updated so situation is worse than shown.


JHSAT Dataset Selection – Metrics• A dataset must be consistent to have accurate results.• Definition and process must be same throughout.• Operations under common regulatory rules.1. Basic US JHSAT dataset: NTSB: US Registered Helicopters

– Regardless of country of occurrence (where crashed)– Gyrocopters and amateur kit built helicopter accidents removed– Foreign registered helicopters removed (counted against their country of

registry)Accidents only per NTSB 830.2 definition (similar to ICAO).- Incidents are removed.

2. Regional JHSAT dataset: Use their official accident definition for their analyses. Use same dataset criteria as US JHSAT.

3. Worldwide Data/Metrics: US JHSAT worldwide database using same NTSB dataset criteria of US JHSAT.


JHSAT Measuring Annual Progress

1. Accident rate/100,000 hr

Worldwide and by Individual Country (and region)Compare rates and rate changes: • IHST participants vs baseline non-participants• Show IHST effectiveness in participant countries.

Progress report to IHST each yearInterim reports to Regional JHSAT/JHSITs.


JHSAT Developing Accurate Flight Hours

• Track individual aircraft by serial number for flight hours

• HAI starting using same approach under FAA R&D to accumulate individual hours.

• Year start and end points calculated, flight hours rolled up to model series, then to major group segment.

• JHSAT developing flight hours for All civil registered helicopters worldwide.

S/N 30XX Flight Hours

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1/1/

1980

1/1/

1982

1/1/

1984

1/1/

1986

1/1/

1988

1/1/

1990

1/1/

1992

1/1/

1994

1/1/

1996

1/1/

1998

1/1/

2000

1/1/

2002

1/1/

2004

Year

To

tal H

ou

rs

USA USAUK


206B Flight Hours - 25 YearsS/N 30XX Flight Hours

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1/1

/1980

1/1

/1982

1/1

/1984

1/1

/1986

1/1

/1988

1/1

/1990

1/1

/1992

1/1

/1994

1/1

/1996

1/1

/1998

1/1

/2000

1/1

/2002

1/1

/2004

Year

To

tal

Ho

urs

USA USAUK

Registry Change


Flight Hour Example from MMIR

EC135 S/N XX NXXXXX

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

01/01

/98

01/01

/99

01/01

/00

01/01

/01

01/01

/02

01/01

/03

01/01

/04

01/01

/05

01/01

/06

01/01

/07


Sources of Flight Hour Data• MMIRs (Maintenance Malfunction Incident Report – HAI)• SDRs, AIDS (USA FAA)• Accident Reports worldwide

• Anytime an individual aircraft total airframe time is known. (Maintenance, registry, Certification of Airworthiness, imported, exported, etc.)

• Internet, for sale postings, tradeshows, etc. • Other sources• Working toward “zero burden” on operator: Data mining

airframe hours without asking operator.


UK CAA has detailed flight hours in website Registry (last 3 years)

ICAO starting similar with 4 countries.

Will be involving ICAO/CAA into IHST and they can provide flight hours inputs.

Need JHSIT assistance of all involved countries


Flight Hour Exposure Process

HomebuiltsKits

Manufactured Helicopters

Inactive(US ~ 24%)

Active(flew at least 1 hour)

Annual FlightHours of Each Active HelicopterAircraft

ActiveHelicopter Fleet

Flight Hours-Single Piston

-Single Turbine-Multi Turbine

For Each Helicopter Registered (Done for each country)

JHSATsJHSITs


Flight Hour Data Points & RegistryFor each civil registered helicopter, provide the following data point

information for airframe flight hour points in time.1. For a date in late 1999 or early 2000 (or prior to 1999)2. For a date in late 2006 (or later)3. For the date that the helicopter entered the country registry.4. For the date that the helicopter left the country registry.

A data point contains the following minimum elements:- Model- Registry Number- A/C Serial Number- Date- Total Time of Airframe Flight Hours (rounded to nearest whole hour) on that date.


IHST Goal Starting PointCharter - IHST Goal States: “Reduce the helicopter accident rate by 80 percent by 2016.”

US Goal for US Registered Helicopters: • Average of 5 years prior to IHST initiation of Jan 2006. • NTSB/FAA data on HAI website for 2001-2005• 10,663,000 flight hours• 974 accidents (Includes helicopters, kits, amateur homebuilts, gyroplanes)

US IHST 10-year Goal Starting Point

2016 Goal

Average Accident/ 100,000 flt hr 9.1 1.83


Worldwide Registered Helicopters

Single Piston40%

Single Turbine45%

Multi-Turbine 15%

Total Registered: 22,647 (2005 RosterRoster)

Total Inactive? Unknown (Destroyed, Displays, Stored, etc.)

Total Active? To Be Determined

Active A/C Completion Status 1 May 07: 34%

Present Registry Potential of 26,000+


Worldwide IHST Goal - Set Later

• Lack of flight hours prevents establishing Goal Starting Point.

• JHSAT initiated effort in 2006 to determine accurate civil helicopter hours worldwide.

• Thus far, hours identified for 1/3 of potential fleet.

• Worldwide goal awaiting completion of flight hour effort underway.


Worldwide*Accident Rates Est. After Flight Hours Done

Potential Worldwide Accident Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ac

cid

en

ts/1

00

,00

0 h

tr

Known 1/3 Fleet Active Assumed 50% Active @ Same Usage

Anticipate Worldwide Rate Average to be 10-12/100,000 hr when done*No US DOD


Worldwide Flight Hour Program Outputs

• Annual fleet flight hours to be accumulated into 3 groups within a country registry:– Single piston– Single turbine– Multiple turbine

• Regional flight hours will be furnished back to regional JHSAT/JHSITs to be used in determining intervention strategies and fleet safety improvements.


Summary• Data/implementation will be regional whereas analysis

process is constant worldwide.• Goal Metrics of participating countries & worldwide

– Accident rate/100,000 hr

• Flight exposure information lacking worldwide• JHSAT is developing country & worldwide flight hours

– Single piston– Single turbine– Multiple turbine

US Goal Starting & End Points Set: Reduce present accident rate per 100,000 flt hr of 9.1 to 1.8 by 2016


Questions?

1 International Helicopter Safety Team May 2007 1 Metrics: Are We Meeting the 80% Reduction Goals? 3...

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