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INTEREST INTEREST meetingmeetingRothamsted,October 2004Rothamsted,October 2004

Indicators and models:Indicators and models:Tools for ecosystems managementTools for ecosystems management

Margarida Cardoso da SilvaMargarida Cardoso da SilvaLNEC-LisboaLNEC-Lisboa

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Structure of the presentationStructure of the presentation

Need of management

Management methodology

Instruments

Indicators -

Concepts, variables

Evaluation criteria

Conceptual models

Building indicators

Models – concept, objectives, types, variables

Building a model - methodBuilding a model - method

ExamplesExamples

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Need for managementNeed for management

Growing concern on use of natural resourcesSustainability relies on strategic managementManagement goals:

Protection – to preserve human investment and defence against accidents and natural disasters.

Conservation – to guarantee the preservation of physical and biological domains, productive and diverse with an intrinsic value as ecosystem

Resource management - to harmonize conflicting and competitive uses

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Management MethodologyManagement Methodology

General methodology, function of:

The type of ecosystemThe issues to address

Includes a phase of:

Planning, Implementation Revising.

Uses management instruments

Revision of the plan

Instruments Strategies

Strategicobjectives

Sustainability

GoalsOperationalobjectives

Performanceevaluation

Operational plan

Definition ofpriority of action

Objectives

Identificationand analysisof problems

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ManagementManagement instrumentsinstruments

Regulatory -institutional measures

Political Legal Administrative

Economic - the existence of financial stimuli and the possibility of voluntary action

Technical and scientific - rely on scientific knowledge

Environmental indicators (characterization, monitor progress and effects of management action)

Modeling techniques Diagnosis - support Diagnosis - support understanding of processes understanding of processes Prognosis - forecast effects Prognosis - forecast effects of changing pressures on of changing pressures on the state of the ecosystemthe state of the ecosystem

Geographical information systems(geo-referenced representations of the ecosystems, of their context and uses, and of their characteristics

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Environmental indicators Basic conceptsBasic concepts

“…a descriptor of the pressures on the system, of its state and the changes of the system.

Or,:…as quantitative or qualitative measures that can be assessed in relation to a criterion that describes features of an ecosystem or the related social system, or described elements of prevailing policy and management conditions and human driven processes indicative of the state of the eco-and social system.

Organized in a conceptual frameworkAssociated with evaluation criteria

Associated with a temporal and spatial domain

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Environmental indicators Basic conceptsBasic concepts

Parameter - environmental variable that can be measured or to wich can be associated a numerical value relevant to the characterization of the environment

Environmental indicators- sets of parameters or of values derived from them relevant to the characterization of specific aspects of a certain region or of its evolution.

Indices - numerical values calculated from the environmental variables that aim to represent in an only numerical value, a certain generic aspect of the environmental state of an ecosystem.

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From variables to indicatorsFrom variables to indicators

Types of variables to build indicatorsState variables, in a generalized

thermodynamic sensu, which are stocks e. g. of mass or energy.

Fluxes, as measures of variation of state variables or of the controlling forcing functions.

Ratios between state variables, between fluxes and between state variables and fluxes.

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Environmental indicatorsTarget audienceTarget audience

Total amount of information

Growing data processing Indicators for

public

Indicators for managers

Indicators for scientists

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Environmental indicators Evaluation criteriaEvaluation criteria

Reference valueWhat guarantees the sustainability of the systemMinimum anthropogenic interventions - pristine conditionsDefined on the basis of scientific knowledge

Objective valueConsiders scientific knowledgeSocio economic and management factors

The selection of evaluation criteria is complex and very relevant

Effects on the final judgment

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Environmental indicators Summary of propertiesSummary of properties

Allow the organization of information in a systematic way

Sensitive to action (information, management, actions)

Are associated with criteria and objectives

Understandable by wide audiences

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Environmental indicators Conceptual framework Conceptual framework

Stateof the

Environment

WaterSediments

Biota

Human Activity

Resources(use)

EmissionsEnergy

AgricultureIndustry

EconomicEnvironmental

Agencies

AdministrationPrivate

Pressures State Response

Responses from Society (action)

Human Activity

EnergyAgriculture

Industry

Driving-forces Impacts

Values

Public Health

Biodiversity

Functions

Recreation

FisheriesFood

Macro economic policies

Prioritize action

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Environmental indicators Examples of applicationExamples of application

European Union - European Environment AgencyState of the Environment Report

Pressure indicators State indicators Impact indicators

Uses

Population density Microbiological contamination

Density of recreational activities Organic matter

Infra-structures

Emissions

Nutrients (N, P)Concentration of N-NO3 Eutrophication

Red tides

Oil Visible films

Metals (Cu, Cr, Cd, Hg, Pb, Ni, Zn)

In sediments and biota

Organic micropolutants In sediments and biota

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Environmental indicators Examples of applicationExamples of application

US-Environmental Protection Agency

1st order: Changes in behavior. Evaluate the need of action

2nd order: Pollution abatement. Evaluate the reduction of pollution loads as a consequence of

management/policy action3rd order: Water and sediment quality. Inform

about the degree of the changes4th order: Biota and habitat. Provide information

about the extension of the changes in the health of ecosystems and organisms and on the economy of the region

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Building a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators (1) (1)

Issues identification

Conceptual Model

Seleccion of variables

Data baseUses and functionsof the ecosystem

Users

Qualityobjectives

Legislationand

norms

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Environmental indicatorsBuilding a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators

Issues

Relevance criteria Legal-economic Ecologic Public health Data availability

Examples: Eutrophication Oxygen content Xenobiotics Habitat integrity Economic output

Types of variables

Context information Morphology Hydrology

Pressure Susceptibility Loads of matter and

energy Accidents

State Presence

/concentrations of substances

Response Operational, structural

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Environmental indicatorsBuilding a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators

Significant values

Evaluation criteria

Values of indicators

Data base

Space domain

MorphologyHidrology

ReferenceObjective

Classes of quality

Temporal domain

Temporalscales

Graphic and Algebraic

algorithms

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Building a system of indicatorsBuilding a system of indicators

Indicators

Test values Dimension removal

Normalized Indicator Algebraic operador Penalty curves

Quality classes

Rules of agregation

IntegrationSpatial –homogeneous zonesMorphologySalinityManagement / uses

Temporal – time scalesSeasonalMoon

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Models as management tools

...in science, a model has the

objective to understand and

represent, even partially, reality.Models are about:

“discovery/understanding”. Behaviour Models are at the same time true and not

true.

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Models as management tools

Models

Dynamic representation of the influence of controlling factors and of inter-relationships between state variables

Objectives of modelling:

Provide a representation of reality

Uncover relationships between variables (state and forcing functions) –better understanding of the system - diagnosis modelling

Forecast values of variables and of the behaviour of the system - prognosis modelling

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Modelling processModelling process

Conceptual model – tell the story we know about the system. Identify:

Interdependencies

Influence of external factors

Time scales

Boundaries (what is part and is not part of the system)

Verbal

Schematic (blocks diagram)

Symbolic language (Odum, Forrester)

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Modelling process

VariablesState variables – stocksForcing functions / driving forces-

externalFluxes of matter and energyRates – control fluxesSupport variables

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Conceptual modelConceptual model

River

AreaWater levelVolume

Paddy fieldFlux

Poim_river

Flux River_poim

Flux Poim_fields

Flux Fields_poim

POIM AreaWater levelVolume

Driving forcesTideFresh water flow

0

1

2

3

4

5

4 5 6 7 8

Time (days)

Ele

vat

ion

(m

)

Control functionDesired level inside the khazan

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Conceptual modelConceptual model

River

Salinity

Paddy field

Salt flux Poim_river

Salt flux River_poim

Salt flux Poim_fields

Salt flux Fields_poim

POIMSalinity

Driving forcesEstuarine salinity

0

1

2

3

4

5

4 5 6 7 8

Time (days)

Ele

va

tio

n (

m)

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Symbolic languagesSymbolic languages

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Symbolic languagesSymbolic languages

State variables – stocks

Auxiliary variables

Constants

Fluxes of information

Fluxes of matter and energy

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Modelling process (2)Modelling process (2)

Define mathematical relations

Identify time units (depending on time scales of processes)

Choose values for:

Initial conditions of state variables

Parameters

Constants

Start simulations

Check obvious errors (e.g.- stop river flow and volume variation does not respond)

Analyse results – calibrate-validate

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Conceptual modellingSchematic representation

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FormulationFormulationSystem of equationsSystem of equations

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Ecological modelsEcological models

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Final remarks (1)

Different management instruments are not mutually exclusiveHave the potentiality to be used in ecosystems of different nature (agro-forest, production forest, aquatic) as diverse are the case studies of the INTEREST Project. Selection of indicators is a starting point to identify model variables

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Final remarks (2)

Modelling exercise contributes to identify relationships between variablesAn initial understanding of the relevant process is needed to allow the development of any of the types of toolsNo useful conclusions without a basic set of data