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![Page 1: 1 Influences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere – and the importance of the QBO Karin Labitzke, Institute for Meteorology, F.U. Berlin Germany.](https://reader038.fdocuments.net/reader038/viewer/2022110207/56649d595503460f94a3a1bd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Influences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere – and the
importance of the QBO
Karin Labitzke,
Institute for Meteorology, F.U. Berlin
Germany(Labitzke and van Loon, numerous papers, 1987 – 2006)
(UCD-Seminar-April-2008)
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The topics of my lecture today are:
1) Variability of the Arctic Winters -- the Sun and the QBO
2) Solar Signals in Summer
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31956 – 2008: trend = - 0.01 K/dec; sigma = 9.2K
1 2 5
3 4
1234
5
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1942 – 2008 n = 67
Hm = 2250,1 dm
sigma = 45,2dm
trend = + 0.42 dm/dec sign. 12 %
1 2 34
5
5 4 3 1 2
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51956 – 2008: trend = - 0.28 K/dec; sigma = 7.7K
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Standard Deviations for February and July 1948 - 2007
9 1
10 JUL
Temp
Height
Labitzke and Kunze, 2008)
FEB
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SO Cold event
Warm event
cold and strong (Labitzke and
warm and weak van Loon, 1987)
QBO Westphase
Eastphase
cold and strong (Holton and Tan, 1980;
warm and weak 1963-1978, n = 18)
SUN Solar min
Solar max
like QBO (Labitzke + van Loon,
opposite to QBO 1987 – 2006)
AO High index (+)
Low index (-)
cold and strong (Baldwin and
warm and weak, Dunkerton, 2001)
Different forcings influencing the stratospheric polar vortex during the northern winters
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(grey = west; white = east)
(50 + 40hPa in Jan + Feb)/4
Quasi-Biennial OscillationQBO
Time- height section of monthly mean zonal winds (m/s) at equatorial stations:Canton Island (3°S / 172°W) (Jan 1953 – Aug 1967);Gan/Maledive Islands (1°S /73°E)(Sep 1967 – Dec 1975);Singapore (1°N /104°E) (since Jan 1976).Isopleths are at 10 m/s intervals,westerlies are shaded ;(updated from Naujokat 1986).
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The Quasi - Biennial Oscillation (1988 – 2007)
------
QBO-definition:40+50hPa in Jan+Feb)/4
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SUNSPOT NUMBER
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11
February
red = warm event
~ El Nino
blue = cold event SO
no correlation with
11 year solar cycle
r = 0.22 (n = 67)
Tropical volcanoesW: Agung March 1963E: Chichon March 1982E: Pinatubo June 1991
CH
A
P
solar min solar max
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12Correlations between 30-hPa Heights and the Solar Flux
FU-Berlin
1958 - 1986
n = 16
r = 0.78
QBO east phase QBO west phase
n = 13r = - 0.7
1. 1958 -1986, ( n = 29 years ~3cycles; Labitzke (1987)
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22 years later and 16 years back; filled symbols = MMWs; n = 67
6.5 solar cycles; WE in red, CE in blue; van Loon and Labitzke (1994), updated)
North Pole February 30 – hPa Heights, NCEP/NCAR + Rec.
r = 0.66
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A Stratospheric Major Midwinter Warming (MMW) is defined by a reversal of the temperature gradient (at the 10hPa level) between the North Pole and 60°N (i.e., polar region warmer ) – and by a reversal of the normal westerlies to easterlies (winds from the east), i.e. a negative AO.
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Solar Cycle; detrended 30hPa Height; WEST/QBOFebruary 1958 – 2008; (n=51); NCEP/NCAR
min = - 0.34; max = 0.75; 5 solar cycles; max height diff. 640 m(~1.5 sigma)
correlations
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Solar Cycle; detrended 30hPa Height; EAST/QBOFebruary 1958 – 2008 (n=51) NCEP/NCAR
min = - 0.47; max = 0.67; 5 solar cycles; height diff. 440 m
correlations
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Detrended Temp., February, NCEP/NCAR, 1958- 2008
(shading = corr >+/- 0.4 ) n = 51, ~ 5 solar cycles
solar max – solar min
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5 strongest MMWsineast min
5 coldest wintersinwest min
Deviations of the zonal mean temperatures (K) in (Jan+Feb)/2from the long-term mean (1968 through 2002);(shading larger than 1 (2) standard deviations)
+11
-8+
-
nodal points:~ 30S and ~ 55Nin both cases
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Solar MIN – QBO West, northern winter:
weakening of BDC (Holton + Tan)
Equator N. Pole
Solar MIN – QBO East,northern winter:intensification of BDC (Holton + Tan) Equator N. Pole
Teleconnections – QBO – Solar Cycle (in the middle stratosphere/ upper troposphere)
COLD vortex
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Solar MAX – QBO West,
northern winter:
intensification of BDC
Equator N. Pole
Solar MIN – QBO West,
northern winter:
weakening of BDC (Holton + Tan)
Equator N. Pole
Solar MAX – QBO East, northern winter:some weakening of BDC
Equator N. Pole
Solar MIN – QBO East,northern winter:intensification of BDC (Holton + Tan) Equator N. Pole
Teleconnections – QBO – Solar Cycle (in the middle stratosphere/ upper troposphere)
COLD vortex
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July, Northern Summer,
the dynamically least disturbed season
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22Correlations between the solar flux and the detrended 30-hPa temperatures in July (1968 -2007); red = corr. > 0.4; blue is temp. diff. > 1K
all; rmax = 0.69
east; rmax = 0.93
west; rmax=0.64
o
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!
r = 0.84, Tdiff = 2.1 K r = 0.39, Tdiff = 0.8 K(sigma = 1K)
(near Nagasaki) (Chichon = March 82/ east; Pinatubo = June 91/east )
!
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near Nagasaki
(1968 – 2007, n = 40)
allr = 0.57
eastr = 0.84
westr = 0.39
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July, 1968 – 2005: Detrended Temperature Correlations (NCEP/NCAR)
East: n = 18r max = 0.86> 99 %
West: n = 20r max = 0.57
200
10
90N
32 km
(Labitzke 2003, updated)(4 solar cycles)
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Temperature Differences, (solar max – min) July, 1968 - 2005East
n = 18
tropical warming= downwelling
= weakening ofBrewer-Dobson C.
Westn = 20
(-)
3
+
Intensification ofHadley Circulation?More convection over equator?
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Temperature Differences, (solar max – min) standardized: July, 1968 – 2007, n = 40
QBO/east
QBO/west -
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30-hPa Heights, solar max – solar min, bi-monthly through the year
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anomalous wind from the west in solar max, i.e.
weaker QBO/East in solar max
30-hPa heights, solar max – solar min, (Jul + Aug)/2
anomalous wind from the east in solar max, again
weaker QBO/West in solar max
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Scatter diagrams of the zonal wind (m/s) over the equator at
(40+50 hPa)/2 in July (absolute values) against the 10.7 cm solar flux. Period: 1953 – 2007 (n = 55, r = 0.07, Data set Fu-Berlin)Left: years in the east phase of the QBO (n = 25). Right: west phase
The QBO is weaker in solar max and stronger in solar min!
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The Constructed Annual Mean
of the differences between
solar max and solar min for
the 30-hPa temperature
and
for the 30-hPa height,
separately for the
QBO east and west phases
(1968 – 2004)
(QBO/east is weaker in max) 80
east
east
l
l
-- 30N
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Temperature differences (K)
Height differences
The Constructed Annual Mean Differences, (solar max - solar min), separately for QBO east and west
E
W
1000
10
+
+
(-)+
(m)
+
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Weaker QBO in Solar Max
solar min (H+T)
QBO east is stronger QBO west is stronger
and and
polar vortex is polar vortex is
warmer/weaker stronger/ colder
But:
solar max
QBO east and west are weaker in max
and the condition of the polar vortex is
opposite to solar min ( and to H+T)
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Thank you for your attention
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July: correlations T (max-min) standardized
all
east
west
(1968 – 2007)