1 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Georgetown University March 17, 2008...

1

Guy CarusoAdministrator

Energy Information Administration

Georgetown UniversityMarch 17, 2008

International Energy Outlook:

The Future of Energy

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EIA Products

• Data Collection– EIA has about 80 surveys and data forms related to energy

supplies and production, energy consumption, greenhouse gases, and finance

• Analysis– EIA provides analyses that evaluate the impacts of regulation on

energy markets

• Forecasting– EIA provides short-term and long-term forecasts of energy

markets for the United States and the world

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EIA Impacts Energy Markets:Natural Gas Markets Rely Heavily on EIA Weekly Data

EIA’s release of its Natural Gas Storage Data has immediate impact on the natural gas market

NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Near-Month Futures Contract June 28 - 29, 2006; Bloomberg data 7/24/06.

Natural gas prices fell sharply when EIA

released gas storage data at 10:30 AM on

Thursday, June 29, 2006

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Major Trends in the IEO2007 …

• Total world energy use rises by 57 percent in the reference case projection.

• The high world oil prices in the IEO2007 reference case are projected to make previously uneconomical, unconventional resources economical, and they provide 10.5 million barrels per day of the world supply by 2030.

• Coal is the fastest growing energy source worldwide, increasing on average by 2.2 percent per year. Natural gas and renewables each increase by an average of 1.9 percent per year. Liquid fuels grow by 1.4 percent per year.

• The Middle East accounts for substantial shares of the world’s total increase for liquids, 45 percent of the world total, and natural gas, 22 percent, through 2030.

• Non-OECD Asia energy use, especially in China and India, is expected to more than double between 2004 and 2030 and will rely increasingly on the Middle East to fulfill its oil and natural gas needs.

• Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for nuclear power generation, which is 14 percent higher in 2030 than in the previous outlook.

• Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.

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$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

World Oil Price, 1980-2030(2005 dollars per barrel)

History Projections

Reference

Low Price

High Price

International Energy Outlook 2007

$100

$59

$36

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World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Liquids

Natural Gas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

34%

8%

28%

6%

Share of WorldTotal

24%

38%

26%

23%

7%

6%


History Projections

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World Marketed Energy Consumption(quadrillion Btu)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

OECD

Non-OECD

History Projections

240

207

298

404


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Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2004-2030 (percent)

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

United S

tate

s

OECD E

urope

Japan

South K

orea

China

India

Africa

Mid

dle E

ast

Russia

Brazi

l

GDP

Population


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World Liquids Consumption, 2004 and 2030(million barrels per day)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Africa

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

Middle East

Central and South America

OECD Asia

OECD Europe

Non-OECD Asia

North America

2004

2030


10

World Liquids Production, 2004-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Non-OPEC (Conventional)

OPEC (Conventional)

Unconventional

Total

53

10

54

118


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Non-OPEC Producing Regions with More than a One-Million-Barrel-per-Day Increase in Production, (million barrels per

day oil equivalent)

8.2

3.1

9.5

2.1

3.82.6

4.3

10.2

5.1

11.5

5.74.9

3.7

7.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

UnitedStates

Canada Russia CaspianArea

China Africa Centraland

SouthAmerica

2005

2030


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OPEC Conventional Liquids Production(million barrels per day)

3.8 4.02.2

0.7

37.5

4.9

9.2

1.7

23.5

1.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Asia MiddleEast

NorthAfrica

WestAfrica

SouthAmerica

2005

2030


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World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 1990 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Other

Gas-To-Liquids

Coal-To-Liquids

Biofuels

Ultra Heavy Crudes

Canadian Oil Sands

Other includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels.


History Projections

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World Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2008(billion barrels)

14

34

99

110

115

211

748

0 200 400 600 800

Europe

Asia

Eurasia

Central & South America

Africa

North America

Middle East

Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

World Total =1,332 billion barrels

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World Natural Gas Consumption, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet)

5158

6265 68 70

48

58

67

76

84

93

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

OECD

Non-OECD


16

World Natural Gas Production, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

OECD RussiaMiddle East Other Non-OECD


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World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2008, andCumulative Consumption, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

OECD Europe

Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Central and South America

North America

Asia

Africa

Russia

Middle East

World Natural Gas Reserves =6,186 Trillion Cubic Feet

World Cumulative Consumption, 2004-2030 =

3,759 Trillion Cubic Feet

ReservesCumulative Consumption, 2004-2030

International Energy Outlook 2007 and Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

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World Coal Consumption, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

India

China

United States

Rest of World


19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

World Electric Power Generation, 1980-2030(trillion kilowatthours)

Non-OECD

OECD


History Projections

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World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030(trillion kilowattours)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

NuclearRenewablesNatural GasCoalLiquids


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World Renewable Energy Use, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu)

18

21 22 2324 25

15

1922

2426

29

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

OECD Non-OECD


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World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region(billion metric tons)

13 13 14 15 15 1617

1213

17

19

22

24

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

OECD

Non-OECD


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World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Coal

Liquids

Natural Gas

Total


History Projections

43%

39%

40%

20%

36%

21%

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Guy Caruso

[email protected]

Periodic Reports

Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly

Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly

Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008

International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next issue May 2008

Examples of Special Analyses

“Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007

Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,

March 2004

The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003

“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005

www.eia.doe.gov

1 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Georgetown University March 17, 2008...

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