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Growth and Development in the Washington Region

Presentation to TPB Technical Committee

Paul DesJardin

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

May 6, 2005

pdesjardin@mwcog.org

202-962-3293

http://www.mwcog.org

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Local Forecasts:Short-Term: Permits

Long-Term: Comprehensive Plans

Regional Econometric Model Projections:

Employment, Populationand Households

Reconcilliation

Regional,Jurisdictional,and

Small-Area(TAZ) Forecasts

(2,000 zones)

COG Cooperative Forecasting Process

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Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecasts

2000 2030 Change

Employment 2.7 4.2 53%

Population 4.5 6.3 38%

Households 1.7 2.4 41%

Numbers in millions

(1) Includes Charles, Calvert and Stafford Counties

Metropolitan Washington (1)

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TPB “Expanded Cordon” TPB “Expanded Cordon” (“Modeled Region”)(“Modeled Region”)

CarrollAnne Arundel

Howard(BMC)

Charles, Calvert St.

Mary’s

(TCC So. Md.)Stafford,

Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, King George

(RADCO/FAMPO)

Clarke

Jefferson

Fauquier

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Round 7.0: Historic and Forecast Employment Growth

88.2

260.1

172.3

410.2

80.7

85.8

62.2

29.4

123.8

113.2

27.4

27.6

6.5

36.6

189.6

190.2

241.3

348.6

191.8

113.6

64.4

81.5

84.7

42.6

42.8

16.6

26.3

8.8

1.5

7.0

84.9

55.6

8.5

15.8

41.4

10.7

16.6

23.2

78.0

22.2

2.6

14.6

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

District of Columbia

Arlington County

City of Alexandria

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Fairfax County (1)

Loudoun County

Prince William County (2)

Calvert County

Charles County

Frederick County

Stafford County

Anne Arundel County

Howard County

Carroll County

St. Mary's County

King George County

Spotsylvania County (3)

Fauquier County

Clarke County

Jefferson County

Jobs (Thousands)

1970 - 2000

2000 - 2030

(1) Includes the Cities of Falls Church and Fairfax(2) Includes the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park(3) Includes the City of Fredericksburg

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Round 7.0: Historic and Forecast Population Growth -184.6

350.5

146.3

514.6

132.4

215.1

53.9

72.8

110.4

67.8

191.7

188.3

81.9

56.7

140.1

226.7

164.1

241.1

297.5

262.7

80.0

130.9

88.0

73.2

69.3

42.3

85.7

75.1

20.9

4.6

29.8

8.8

38.8

17.4

16.0

34.2

6.1

12.7

41.4

30.1

52.6

25.4

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

District of Columbia

Arlington County

City of Alexandria

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Fairfax County(1)

Loudoun County

Prince William County(2)

Calvert County

Charles County

Frederick County

Stafford County

Anne Arundel County

Howard County

Carroll County

St. Mary's County

King George County

Spotsylvania County(3)

Fauquier County

Clarke County

Jefferson County

Population (Thousands)

1970 - 2000

2000 - 2030

(1) Includes the Cities of Falls Church and Fairfax(2) Includes the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park(3) Includes the City of Fredericksburg

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Projected 2000 to 2030 Growth TPB Modeled Region

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Washington MSA Anne Arundel, Carroll, Howard St Marys, Spotsylvania,Fredericksburg, King George,Fauquier, Clarke, J efferson

Tho

usan

ds

Jobs

Population

Households

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Projected Rate of 2000 to 2030 Growth TPB Modeled Region

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Washington MSA Anne Arundel, Carroll, Howard St Marys, Spotsylvania, Fredericksburg,King George, Fauquier, Clarke, J efferson

Jobs

Population

Households

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$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

30% of Monthly Salary (Gross)

$1,751 Average Mortgage (2002)

$1,157 Average Rent (2002)

Comparison of Average Monthly Wages and Average Housing Cost: A Workforce Housing Crisis

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The TPB Modeled Region Would Need 487,000 Additional Households in 2030

Numbers in Thousands

JobsWorkers and

BalanceNeeded to

Households

in 2030HouseholdsNumber ofForecast

Minus

Household1.5 Jobs PerNeeded at

Households2030

JobsWorkers and

BalanceNeeded to

Households

in 2000HouseholdsNumber of

Minus

Household1.57 Jobs Per

Needed atHouseholds2000

Washington MSA5082,4102,9184,377951,7111,8062,845Jobs

2,4101,711Households

Anne Arundel, Carroll, Howard counties-12426414621-40322282444Jobs

426322Households

St Marys, Spotsylvania, Fredericksburg, King George, Fauquier, Clarke, Jefferson-10217207310-1311198154Jobs

217111Households

TPB Modeled Region4873,0533,5395,309432,1442,1883,446Jobs

3,0532,144Households

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Growth and Development in the Washington Region

• Between 2000 and 2030 in the Washington region, anticipated job growth (+53%) will outpace population growth (+38%) and household growth (+41%).

• Growth in the region will continue to stimulate strong demand for housing, particularly affordable homes for middle-income workers

• The fastest rates of growth are anticipated in the region’s outer suburbs where land costs are cheaper.

• Despite this robust growth, COG has estimated a shortage or need for an additional 487,000 housing units during the period