1 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006

UN/ISDR Platform for the Promotion Early Warning & the tsunami early warning systems in Indian Ocean

Stefanie Dannenmann & Reid BasherUN/ISDR International Strategy for Disaster ReductionPlatform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW), Bonn

Taking a systems approach to disaster risk New views on early warning Role of science and technology

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What is a disaster?

Disaster: “A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses

which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources”

Natural hazardStorm, flood, hurricane drought, volcanic eruption, earthquake,

tsunami, landslide, etc)

Vulnerability of society to the hazard (due to location, environment, lack of

preparedness or capacity)

DISASTER

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Disaster risks – growing and changing

But death tolls in drought and flood have reduced - through early warning, food aid and preparedness

Disasters are mostly weather-related

Number of events 2.3

Economic losses 7.0

Insured losses 15.7

Increases; 1990s versus 1960s

Events of the last 12 months Sumatra tsunamiHurricanes in Gulf and Asia; Floods in India and Europe; Fires in North America, EuropeEarthquake in Pakistan

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Reasons for rising disaster risks ?

More people and poor people in risky and unsustainable situations

Unsafe development: floodplain settlement, coastal exploitation, mega-city growth, unsafe houses, wetland destruction, river channeling, deforestation

Soil erosion and fertility decline, desertification Exacerbated by poverty and disease, conflict and

population displacement

Growing disasters are a sign of unsustainable development

….Increasing vulnerability

EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20065

A systems approach to reducing risks

Shift the focus from hazards to risk management Understand the nature of the risks - both the hazards and the

vulnerabilities Put in place the tools and methods to assess, predict,

ameliorate, and respond to risk, Ensure strong political support, administrative capacity and

community engagement

Since disasters are a human phenomenon, we can change our ways to reduce our risks

EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20066

A linear systems model – tsunami early warning system

Monitoring(initial state) System model

(time evolving) Prediction (probabilistic)

Ocean wave propagation, coastal run-up

Seismicity, sea level Z(x, y, t) +

Behaviour (complex)

Knowledge, belief, emotion, preparedness

Issues for tsunami EWS: - No seismic prediction, high speed of process; - Poor data on initial state (sea level and coastal zone);

- High uncertainty and false alarm rate.

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The linear paradigm –scientifically appealing but deficient

Operated by scientists and technologists; often with weak linkages to those in need of warnings

Difficult to communicate uncertainty, false alarms, etc Focus is on the hazard, with little emphasis on the vulnerabilities Few mechanisms for feedback from users and those at risk Little empowerment or engagement of those at risk Mistrust of experts and authorities

Experience of past failures shows that effective early warning systems must be both systematic and people-centred

Recall the Hurricane Katrina disaster ……

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An integrated systems model – early warning system

Monitoring(initial state) System model

(time evolving) Prediction (probabilistic)

Knowledge of hazard

Communities

Institutional commitment and

mechanisms

Mitigation, education,

preparedness

Research

Response behaviours

EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20069

The four components of people-centred EW systems

EW systems typically fail in the communication and preparedness elements

In Hurricane Katrina, the risk knowledge also failed to effectively penetrate public and policymaker consciousness

With the Indian Ocean tsunami, failures occurred in all four elements

Risk assessment Warning service

Communication Preparedness

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EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200610

Priority projects of ISDR Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW)

$11M project on strengthening of early warning in tsunami-affected countries (with other UN and regional organisations)

Global survey of early warning system gaps and needs, for UN Secretary General (he called for global system for “all-hazards and all countries”)

Database of proposals for new projects on EW systems Third International Early Warning Conference, Bonn, 27-29 March 2006 Coordinate implementation of early warning parts of the Hyogo

Framework for Action Advocate systematic, people-centred early warning systems

EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200611

Initiated by ISDR and UNESCO-IOC, as part of the UN Flash Appeal UNESCO-IOC leads technical elements ISDR undertakes the programmatic and coordination parts of the project Involves all of ISDR including Africa and Asia outreach offices; effort led by

Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW)

Early Warning Strengthening ProjectUN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of

Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami

EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200612

Pledges were made for more than US$ 11.4 million towards this initiative.

Strong support: Japan (US$ 4 M), Sweden (US$ 1.4 M), Norway (US$ 1.4 M), European Commission (US$ 2.6 M), Finland (USD 1.3 M), Germany (US$ 0.39 M), and Netherlands (US$ 0.35 M)

In 2005, the total amount received is US$ 10,507,208 To date, US$ 7,970,410 is committed and/or spent.

Early Warning Strengthening ProjectUN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of

Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami

EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200613

Implementing Partners

UNDP

UNESCO-IOC

UNEP

UNESCAP

UNU-EHS

WMO

ABU

ADRC

ADPC

CRED

AIDMI

University of Geneva

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1. Core system implementation

2. Integrated risk management

3. Public awareness and education

4. Community-level approaches

5. Project coordination

Project strategic framework

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Role of science and technology (S&T) in disaster risk reduction

History of S&T leadership in disaster risk reduction Science-based agencies active in the ISDR But social sciences needs and inputs not well represented Hyogo framework identifies S&T needs Need for a comprehensive disaster research agenda GEO/GEOSS adopts disaster reduction as a key focus British proposal for International Science Panel on Natural Hazards;

followed up by G8 statement Moves to get S&T systematically addressed in new ISDR System

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Conclusions

New thinking on disaster risk; recognition of its role in development; focus on developing “resilience” to risk

The tsunami early warning issue is part of much larger disaster agenda – must plug in to this

Effective early warning = systematic and people-centred Broader view of early warning and its potential Need for more systematic approaches; in research, planning, cost-benefit

analysis, and implementation Critical role for science and technology

www.unisdr-earlywarning.org www.unisdr.org