1 Development of a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for Real-Time Forecasting in Prince William...
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1 Development of a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for Real-Time Forecasting in Prince William Sound and Adjacent Alaska Coastal Waters YI CHAO, Carrie Zhang (& JPL ROMS Group) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Jim McWilliams, Xavier Capet (& UCLA ROMS Group) UCLA
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Transcript of 1 Development of a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for Real-Time Forecasting in Prince William...
1
Development of a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for Real-Time Forecasting in Prince William Sound and Adjacent
Alaska Coastal Waters
YI CHAO, Carrie Zhang (& JPL ROMS Group)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Jim McWilliams, Xavier Capet (& UCLA ROMS Group)UCLA
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DataInput
Theoretical &NumericalModels
(forward and inverse)
Synthesis Products
User CommunityLocal Managers
EducationPublic Outreach
Observations(satellite, in situ)
ObservationNetworkDesign
3D Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation:Connect Observations to Practical Applications
Feedback
Forecasting
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Prince William Sound (PWS) circulation is
complex: small spatial scale,
time scale varies from
days to decades
2 AUG 04SST
Internal instability
Local forcing by atmosphere, rivers, glaciers
“Remote” forcing by El Nino, La Nina, PDO, & global warming
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Pacific Basin-Scale Modeling:
Eddy-Permitting Resolution at 12.5-km
(1520x1088x30)
Columbia Computer(NASA Advanced Computer System)
SGI Altix10,000+ processors
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OBS Model
Sea Surface Temperature
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9-km
3-km
1-km
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Climatology
2004
Transport
Hinchinbrook EntranceVs
Montague Strait
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Climatology
2004
Hinchinbrook Entrance
Mer
idio
nal C
urre
nt
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Winter2004
Spring2004
Summer2004
Fall2004
Hin
chin
broo
k E
ntra
nce
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HF Radar Surface Current
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July 2-13 July 14-31
Aug. 1-15 Aug. 16-30
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Integrating Data with Models (or Data Assimilation) for Real-Time Nowcast and
Forecast
12-hour forecast
J = 0.5 (x-xf)T B-1 (x-xf) + 0.5 (h x-y)T R-1 (h x-y)
Time
Aug.100Z
Aug.118Z
Aug.112Z
Aug.106Z
Initialcondition
6-hour forecast
Aug.200Z
Xa = xf + xf
Xa
xf
3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method:
3-day forecast
y: observationx: model
6-hour assimilation cycle
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DataInput
Theoretical &NumericalModels
(forward and inverse)
Synthesis Products
User CommunityLocal Managers
EducationPublic Outreach
Observations(satellite, in situ)
ObservationNetworkDesign
End-to-End Integration from Ocean Observing System & Model-based Nowcast/Forecast to
Decision Making
Feedback
Forecasting
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WinterClimatology
SpringClimatology
FallClimatology
SummerClimatology
Hin
chin
broo
k E
ntra
nce
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Observation ROMS
