1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian...

38
1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition . 0 T E N Decision Making Decision Making and Creativity and Creativity C H A P T E R 1

Transcript of 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian...

Page 1: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

. 0T E N

Decision Making Decision Making and Creativityand CreativityDecision Making Decision Making and Creativityand Creativity

C H A P T E R

1

Page 2: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

2 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Decision Making & Creativity at G.A.P Decision Making & Creativity at G.A.P Decision Making & Creativity at G.A.P Decision Making & Creativity at G.A.P

Creativity and astute

decision making have

helped Bruce Poon Tip

(shown) and his company,

G.A.P Adventures, to

become an innovator in the

travel industry

Courtesy of G.A.P Adventures

Page 3: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

3 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Decision Making Defined Decision Making Defined Decision Making Defined Decision Making Defined

Conscious process of

making choices among

one or more alternatives

with the intention of

moving toward some

desired state of affairs

Courtesy of G.A.P Adventures

Page 4: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

4 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

3. Develop3. Developalternativesalternatives

1. Identify1. Identifyproblemproblem

2. Choose2. Choosedecisiondecision

stylestyle

Rational Decision Making Model Rational Decision Making Model Rational Decision Making Model Rational Decision Making Model

4. Choose4. Choosebest solutionbest solution

5. Implement5. Implementsolutionsolution

6. Evaluate6. Evaluatedecisiondecision

Page 5: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

5 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Problem Identification ProcessProblem Identification ProcessProblem Identification ProcessProblem Identification Process

• Problems and opportunities are not announced or pre-defined – need to interpret ambiguous information

• Involves both rational and emotional brain centres – probably need to pay attention to both in

problem identification

Page 6: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

6 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Famous Missed OpportunitiesFamous Missed OpportunitiesFamous Missed OpportunitiesFamous Missed Opportunities

A Knight’s Tale was a box office

success, yet most Hollywood

studios rejected Brian Helgeland’s

proposal. They failed to see the

appeal of a film about a lowly

squire in 14th century England

who aspires to be a knight, set to

1970s rock music and reflecting

contemporary themes of youth,

freedom, and equality.© Photofest

Page 7: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

7 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Problem Identification ChallengesProblem Identification ChallengesProblem Identification ChallengesProblem Identification Challenges

• Perceptual bias:– Imperfect perceptions– Selective attention

mechanisms– Influence from others– Mental models

• Diagnostic skills:– Defining problems in

terms of solutions© Photofest

Page 8: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

8 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Identifying Problems EffectivelyIdentifying Problems EffectivelyIdentifying Problems EffectivelyIdentifying Problems Effectively

• Be aware of perceptual and diagnostic limitations

• Understand mental models

• Consider other perspectives

• Discuss the situation with colleagues © Photofest

Page 9: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

9 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Making Choices: Rational vs OB ViewsMaking Choices: Rational vs OB ViewsMaking Choices: Rational vs OB ViewsMaking Choices: Rational vs OB Views

ProcessingProcessingInformationInformation

Evaluation Evaluation TimingTiming

Rational: People can process all information

Rational: All choices evaluated simultaneously

GoalsGoals Rational: Clear, compatible, agreed upon

OB: Ambiguous, conflicting, lack agreement

OB: People process only limited information

OB: Choices evaluated sequentially

more

Page 10: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

10 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Making Choices: Rational vs OB Making Choices: Rational vs OB (con’t)(con’t)Making Choices: Rational vs OB Making Choices: Rational vs OB (con’t)(con’t)

Info QualityInfo Quality

Decision Decision ObjectiveObjective

Rational: People rely on factual information

Rational: Maximization -- the optimal choice

StandardsStandards Rational: Evaluate against absolute standards

OB: Evaluate against implicit favourite

OB: Rely on perceptually distorted information

OB: Satisficing -- a “good enough” choice

Page 11: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

11 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Intuitive Decision MakingIntuitive Decision MakingIntuitive Decision MakingIntuitive Decision Making

• Ability to know when a problem or opportunity exists and select the best course of action without conscious reasoning

• Conduit for tacit knowledge

• Use intuition to complete rational process

Page 12: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

12 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Choosing Solutions EffectivelyChoosing Solutions EffectivelyChoosing Solutions EffectivelyChoosing Solutions Effectively

• Systematically evaluate alternatives

• Balance emotions and rational influences

• Scenario planning

© Corel Corp. With permission

Page 13: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

13 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Escalation of CommitmentEscalation of CommitmentEscalation of CommitmentEscalation of Commitment

Escalation of commitment

occurred when the British

government continued funding

the Concorde supersonic jet

long after it’s lack of

commercial viability was

apparent. Some scholars refer

to escalation of commitment as

the “Concorde fallacy.” © Corel Corp. With permission

Page 14: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

14 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Escalation of Commitment CausesEscalation of Commitment CausesEscalation of Commitment CausesEscalation of Commitment Causes

• Self-justification

• Gambler’s fallacy

• Perceptual blinders

• Closing costs© Corel Corp. With permission

Page 15: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

15 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Employee Involvement DefinedEmployee Involvement DefinedEmployee Involvement DefinedEmployee Involvement Defined

The degree that employees share information, knowledge, rewards and power throughout the organization

– active in decisions

– employees influence how their work is organized and carried out

Page 16: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

16 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

HighHigh

MediumMedium

LowLow

Levels of Employee InvolvementLevels of Employee InvolvementLevels of Employee InvolvementLevels of Employee Involvement

High involvement– Employees have complete decision

making power (e.g.. SDWTs)

Full consultation– Employees offer recommendations

(e.g.. gain sharing)

Selective consultation– Employees give information, but

don’t know the problem

Page 17: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

17 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Employee Involvement ModelEmployee Involvement ModelEmployee Involvement ModelEmployee Involvement Model

Potential Involvement Potential Involvement OutcomesOutcomes

ContingenciesContingenciesof Involvementof Involvement

Employee Employee InvolvementInvolvement

• Better problem identification

• More/better solutions generated

• Best choice more likely

• Higher decision commitment

Page 18: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

18 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Contingencies of InvolvementContingencies of InvolvementContingencies of InvolvementContingencies of Involvement

Knowledge Knowledge SourceSource

Decision Decision CommitmentCommitment

• Employees have relevant knowledge beyond leader

• Employees would lack commitment unless involved

Risk ofRisk ofConflictConflict

• Norms support firm’s goals• Employee agreement likely

Decision Decision StructureStructure

• Problem is new & complex(i.e nonprogrammed decision)

Employee involvement is better when:Employee involvement is better when:

Page 19: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

19 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

PreparationPreparation

IncubationIncubation

Insight

VerificationVerification

Creative Process ModelCreative Process ModelCreative Process ModelCreative Process Model

Page 20: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

20 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Creativity at Research in MotionCreativity at Research in MotionCreativity at Research in MotionCreativity at Research in Motion

Through his persistence,

Mike Lazardis (shown) helped

Research in Motion to

become a leader in wireless

communications. “[He] keeps

grinding towards his goal until

he gets there,” says one

observer.R. Koza, CP/K-W Record

Page 21: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

21 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Characteristics of Creative PeopleCharacteristics of Creative PeopleCharacteristics of Creative PeopleCharacteristics of Creative People

• Above average

intelligence

• Persistence

• Relevant knowledge

and experience

• Inventive thinking

R. Koza, CP/K-W Record

Page 22: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

22 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Supporting CreativitySupporting CreativitySupporting CreativitySupporting Creativity

• Learning orientation– Encourage experimentation– Tolerate mistakes

• Intrinsically motivating work– Task significance, autonomy, feedback

• Open communication and sufficient resources

Page 23: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

23 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Creative ActivitiesCreative ActivitiesCreative ActivitiesCreative Activities

• Review Review abandoned abandoned projectsprojects

•• Ask other Ask other peoplepeople

RedefineRedefinethe Problemthe Problem

•• StorytellingStorytelling

•• Artistic Artistic activitiesactivities

•• Morphological Morphological analysisanalysis

AssociativeAssociativePlayPlay

•• Diverse teamsDiverse teams

•• Information Information sessionssessions

• Internal Internal tradeshowstradeshows

Cross-Cross-PollinationPollination

Page 24: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

24 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Team Decision Making ConstraintsTeam Decision Making ConstraintsTeam Decision Making ConstraintsTeam Decision Making Constraints

• Time constraints– Time to organize/coordinate– Production blocking

• Evaluation apprehension– Belief that other team members are silently

evaluating you

• Conformity to peer pressure– Suppressing opinions that oppose team

norms

Page 25: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

25 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Team Constraints: GroupthinkTeam Constraints: GroupthinkTeam Constraints: GroupthinkTeam Constraints: Groupthink

• Tendency in highly cohesive teams to value consensus at the price of decision quality

• More common when the team:– Is highly cohesive– Is isolated from outsiders– Team leader is opinionated– Faces external threat– Has recent failures– Team lacks clear guidance

Page 26: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

26 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Team Constraints: Group PolarizationTeam Constraints: Group PolarizationTeam Constraints: Group PolarizationTeam Constraints: Group Polarization

• Tendency for teams to make more extreme decisions than individuals alone

• Riskier options usually taken because of gambler’s fallacy -- believe they can beat the odds

Page 27: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

27 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

General Guidelines for Team DecisionsGeneral Guidelines for Team DecisionsGeneral Guidelines for Team DecisionsGeneral Guidelines for Team Decisions

1. Ensure neither leader nor any member dominates

2. Maintain optimal team size

3. Team norms encourage critical thinking

4. Introduce effective team structures

Page 28: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

28 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Generating Constructive ConflictGenerating Constructive ConflictGenerating Constructive ConflictGenerating Constructive Conflict

• Form heterogeneous decision making team

• Ensure team meets often to face contentious issues

• Members should take on different discussion roles

Page 29: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

29 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Rules of BrainstormingRules of BrainstormingRules of BrainstormingRules of Brainstorming

1. Speak freely

2. No criticism

3. Provide many ideas

4. Build on others’ ideas

Page 30: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

30 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Evaluating Electronic BrainstormingEvaluating Electronic BrainstormingEvaluating Electronic BrainstormingEvaluating Electronic Brainstorming

• Benefits– Less production blocking– Less evaluation apprehension– More creative synergy– More satisfaction with process

• Problems– Too structured– Technology-bound– Candid feedback is threatening– Not applicable to all decisions

Page 31: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

31 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Nominal Group TechniqueNominal Group TechniqueNominal Group TechniqueNominal Group Technique

DescribeDescribeproblemproblem

IndividualIndividualActivityActivity

TeamTeamActivityActivity

IndividualIndividualActivityActivity

Nominal Group TechniqueNominal Group TechniqueNominal Group TechniqueNominal Group Technique

Write downWrite downpossiblepossiblesolutionssolutions

PossiblePossiblesolutionssolutionsdescribeddescribedto othersto others

Vote onVote onsolutionssolutionspresentedpresented

Page 32: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

32 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

. 0T E N

Decision Making Decision Making and Creativityand CreativityDecision Making Decision Making and Creativityand Creativity

C H A P T E R

1

Page 33: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

33 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Solutions to Creativity Solutions to Creativity BrainbustersBrainbusters

Solutions to Creativity Solutions to Creativity BrainbustersBrainbusters

Page 34: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

34 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Double Circle ProblemDouble Circle ProblemDouble Circle ProblemDouble Circle ProblemDouble Circle ProblemDouble Circle ProblemDouble Circle ProblemDouble Circle Problem

Page 35: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

35 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Nine Dot ProblemNine Dot ProblemNine Dot ProblemNine Dot ProblemNine Dot ProblemNine Dot ProblemNine Dot ProblemNine Dot Problem

Page 36: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

36 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Nine Dot Problem RevisitedNine Dot Problem RevisitedNine Dot Problem RevisitedNine Dot Problem RevisitedNine Dot Problem RevisitedNine Dot Problem RevisitedNine Dot Problem RevisitedNine Dot Problem Revisited

Page 37: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

37 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Word SearchWord SearchWord SearchWord SearchWord SearchWord SearchWord SearchWord Search

FCIRVEEALTETITVEERS

Page 38: 1 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McShane 5th Canadian Edition. 0 T E N Decision Making and Creativity C H A P.

38 Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McShane 5th Canadian Edition

Burning RopesBurning RopesBurning RopesBurning RopesBurning RopesBurning RopesBurning RopesBurning Ropes

One Hour to Burn Completely

After first rope burnedi.e. 30 min.