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Climate System,Climate Prediction and Climate Change

Dr.SONG YanDept. of Science and Technology Training

Training Centre of China Meteorological Administration

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Ⅲ Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

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Causes of climate change

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Causes of climate change

GH

Gs

Aerosols

Lan

d u

se

Human factorsNatural factors

Solar

Natu

ral variab

ility

Volcan

o

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Land use change

Climate change

Green

house

effect

Aerosols

effect

CO2

CH4

NO

CFCs

Sulfate 硫酸盐

Black carbon

Nitrate 硝酸盐

Mineral

Farming

Irrigation

Deforestatio

n Urbanization

Possibly anthropogenic factors for climate changePossibly anthropogenic factors for climate change

Natural factors

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Anyway, dependence on fossil fuels is a problematic situation.

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Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.

Conclusions by the IPCC AR4Conclusions by the IPCC AR4

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Adaptation and Mitigation

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Definitions of Adaptation and Mitigation

• Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or expected climat

ic stimuli (pl. stimulus) or their effects, which mo

derates harm or exploits ( 利用） bene'ficial oppo

rtunities.

• Mitigation refers to spe'cific （明确的） climate p

olicies will be implemented to reduce greenhous

e gas emissions.

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

The TAR used the following definitions of climate changemitigation and adaptation.• Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce thesources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC,2001a).• Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems inresponse to actual or expected climatic stimuli or theireffects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficialopportunities (IPCC, 2001a).

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

It follows from （根据…得出） these definitions that mitigatio

n reduces all impacts (positive and negative) of climate cha

nge and thus reduces the adaptation challenge, whereas

（而） adaptation is selective; it can take advantage of

（利用） positive impacts and reduce negative ones (Gokl

any, 2005).

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The two options are implemented on the same local or regional

scale, and may be 'motivated （发动，推动） by local and region

al pri'orities and interests, as well as global concerns( 所关心的事） . Mitigation has global benefits (an'cillary （辅助的） benefits

might be realised at the local/regional level), although effective mit

igation needs to involve a sufficient number of major greenhouse-

gas emitters to foreclose （防止） leakage （泄漏） . Adaptation

typically works on the scale of an impacted system, which is regio

nal at best （最多） , but mostly local (although some adaptation

might result in spill-overs （外流人口） across national boundarie

s, for example by changing international co'mmodity （日用品） p

rices in agricultural or forest-product （林产品） markets).

Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

Expressed as CO2-equivalents （等价物） , emissions reducti

ons achieved by different mitigation actions can be compared a

nd if the costs of implementing the actions are known, their cos

t-effectiveness （成本效率） can be determined and compared

(Moomaw et al., 2001). The benefits of adaptation are more diffi

cult to express in a single metric （公制的） , impeding （即将发生的，迫在眉睫的） comparisons between adaptation efforts.

Moreover, as a result of the predominantly local or regional eff

ect of adaptation, benefits of adaptation will be valued differentl

y depending on the social, economic and political contexts （背景） within which they occur.

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The benefits of mitigation carried out today will be evidenced

( 显著的） in several decades because of the long residence （居住 / 停留） time of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (ancillary

（辅助的） benefits such as reduced air pollution are possible in t

he near term), whereas many adaptation measures would be effec

tive immediately and yield benefits by reducing vulnerability （脆弱性） to climate variability. As climate change continues, the be

nefits of adaptation (i.e., avoided damage) will increase over time.

Thus there is a delay between incurring （招致的） the costs of m

itigation and realising （明白） its benefits from smaller climate c

hange, while the time span between expenditures （支出） and r

eturns of adaptation is usually much shorter.

Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

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This difference （支出和回报） is au‘gmented in analyses ad

opting （采用） positive （绝对的） discount rates （折扣率） .

These a'symmetries （不对称） have led to a situation where

by （为何） the initiative （主动） for mitigation has tended to

stem （阻止） from international agreements and ensuing

（继发的） national public policies （国家政策） (sometimes s

upplemented （补充） by community-based or private-sector

（私营成分的） initiatives), whereas the bulk of （大多数） ada

ptation actions have historically been 'motivated by the self-i

nterest （私利） of affected private actors and communities,

possibly fa‘cilitated （由…推动 ) by public policies （国家政策） .

Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

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There are a number of ways in which adaptation and mitigation are related （有关系的） at different levels of decision-making. Mitigation efforts can foster （鼓励） adaptive capacity （适应能力） if they e'liminate market failures （故障） and distortions （扭曲） , as well as per‘verse （不正当的） subsidies （补助金） that prevent （妨碍） actors from making decisions on the basis of the true social costs （社会成本） of the available options（方案） . At a highly aggregated scale, mitigation expenditures （支出） appear to divert （转移） social or private resources and reduce the funds available for adaptation, but in reality the actors and budgets involved （有关的） are different. Both options change relative prices （相对价格） , which can lead to slight adjustments in consumption （消费） and investment（投资） patterns （模式） and thus to changes in the affected economy’s development pathway （方式） , but direct trade-offs are rare. Trade-off: A balancing of adaptation and mitigation when it is not possible to carry out both activities fully at the same time (e.g., due to financial or other constraints).

Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

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Differences, similarities betweenadaptation and mitigation

The implications （含意） of adaptation can be both positive （正面的） and negative （负面的） for mitigation. For example, afforestation （造林） that is part of a regional adaptation strategy also makes a positive contribution to mitigation. In contrast, adaptation actions that require increased energy use from carbon-emitting sources (e.g., indoor cooling) would affect mitigation efforts negatively.

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Summary of main findings of AR4

• Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that

many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, par

ticularly temperature increases.

• A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthrop

ogenic warming has had a discernible （可辨别的） influence on many p

hysical and biological systems.

• Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environm

ents are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptatio

n and non-climatic drivers.

• More specific （明确的） information is now available across a wide rang

e of systems and sectors （部门） concerning the nature of future impact

s （未来影响的实质） , including for some fields not covered in previous a

ssessments.

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Summary of main findings of AR4

• More specific （明确的） information is now available across the re

gions of the world concerning future impacts, including for some pla

ces not covered in previous assessments.

• Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically fo

r a range of （一系列） possible increases in global average tempe

rature.

• Impacts due to altered （被改变的） frequencies and intensities of e

xtreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to chan

ge.

• Some large-scale climate events have the potential （潜力） to cau

se very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.

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Summary of main findings of AR4• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discoun

ted （折算） to the present, they are very likely to impose （影响） net a

nnual costs （年成本） which will increase over time as global temperatur

es increase.

• Some adaptation is occurring now, to （针对） observed and projected fut

ure climate change, but on a limited basis.

• Adaptation will be necessary to address （ deal with/ 应对） impacts resul

ting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

• A wide array of （大量的） adaptation options （方案） is available, but

more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required （但是还需要比现在更为广泛的适应措施） to reduce vulnerability to future climate

change. There are barriers （阻碍） , limits （限制） and costs （成本） ,

but these are not fully understood （认识） .

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Summary of main findings of AR4• Vulnerability to climate change can be ex'acerbated （加剧） by the presence

of other stresses （压力、危机） .

• Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on developm

ent pathway （路径） .

• Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and clim

ate change could impede （阻碍） nations’ abilities to achieve （实现） susta

inable development pathways.

• Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.（通过减缓能够避免、减轻或延迟许多影响）。

• A portfolio （ the range of products/ 一揽子措施 ) of adaptation and mitigation

measures can diminish the risks （降低风险） associated with climate change.Portfolio: A set of actions to achieve a particular goal. A climate policy portfolio may includ

e adaptation, mitigation, research and technology development, as well as other actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate change.

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Problems and gaps between Problems and gaps between China and Developed CountriesChina and Developed Countries

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Problems and gaps in observations, in partiProblems and gaps in observations, in particular in developing countriescular in developing countries

1. Insu'fficiency of observations1. Insu'fficiency of observations• Sparseness （稀疏） of observational stations• Insufficiency （不足） of long-term climate data series• Lackness of observations for some key variables

2. Lowering representation of observations （观测资料缺乏代表性）

• 'Inhomoge'neities in many climate data series• Lack of meta-data （数据元） for observational records• Effects of urbanization on air temperature records

3. Weakness of capacity• Difficulties to raise funds• Lack of professionals in managing and analyzing of data

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Needs for improving observations of develoNeeds for improving observations of developing countriesping countries

1. Constructing national observational systems• A better in situ observational network• Development and application of satellite products• An 'integrated observational station network• Reconstruction of proxy （代用数据） or paleo- （古）data series

2. Improving observational settings• More ho'mogenous and un-biased（有偏的） data series• Development of meta-data for adjusting in-homogeneities

3. Strengthening capacity• In data storage and management• In building of institutions （制度）

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China’s experiences: achievementsChina’s experiences: achievements

A good basic observation network, and China is upgrading the network under the framework of the China-GCOS program

Operational monitoring of atmospheric compositions, energy budget, water and carbon cycles, ecosystem and land use, ice and snow, et al.

Submissions of real-time observational data of China-GCOS stations and historical data from national stations to the WDC-Meteorology

An operational system of climatic monitoring, prediction and impact assessment in the BCC

Cooperative observation and data application programs

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Monitoring of weather and climate extremes by CMA Monitoring of weather and climate extremes by CMA

Cold waveCold wave

Dust stormDust storm

Tropical cycloneTropical cyclone

Drought monitoringDrought monitoring

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Measures to further improve the observatioMeasures to further improve the observation system of Chinan system of China

Increasing observational stations in data-sparse areas Maintaining the representation of observational settings Monitoring the variables other than basic climate variab

les Developing satellite climate products Training young and local experts Coordinating observational programs among different m

inistries（部门） Enhancing regional and international cooperation

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Questions?

The End

Comments?

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Assignments

1 Please give the definitions of Adaptation, Vulnerability and

Mitigation.

2 What are causes for climate change?

3 Understand the differences and similarities between adaptation

and mitigation of climate change.

3 Please understand the main findings of IPCC AR4.

4 What are problems and gaps between China and Developed

Countries?