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City-region Stockholm asKnowledge region 2015

Arne ErikssonMobile 0708872264 email arne@aek.nu

© Arne Eriksson

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Recent studies

2005-2006

OECD says the region is weak on strategy and governance in a study commisioned by the region

The Dahmén Institute recommends a regional foresight as a nonthreatening approach to get a process going in a study presented in April 2006

The Dahmén Institute commissioned to design and implement a preforesight

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Stakeholder Map

STAKE

High

Low

InfluenceLimited Great

The usual suspectsPotential participants

Non relevant

Potential leaders(collaborative leaders)

Source: Adapted from Chrislip D.D Collaborative Leadership: The Fieldbook

City-region: a new geography

Extremely important to

mobilise

4

Strategies to cope with complexity

Level of conflict

Low Problem Solution

Low High Low

High

Type 2

Type 3Power

Concentrated Dispersped

ContestedAuthoritative

Yes NoCompetitive

Collaboration

Type 1

Källa: N. Roberts, Coping with wicked problems in policy, egen bearbetning

”standard procedure”

neg

negotiate

”Foresight territory”

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Foresight design

Cluster

Drivers

”Sustainable system design”

Financial

services

User-driven innovation

UnbundlingValue chains

Orchestrationsystems-integration

Telecom/Mob. servicesmultimedia

Bio/Life/Health/Welleing

St

CAPABILITIES

S T R U K T U R E R, R E S U R S E R

Long tail

© Arne Eriksson

KIBS seen more as a set of capabilities than as a cluster

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Strategy fundamentals

Internal world

Externalworld

Comprehensible Controllable

UnpredictableComplex Transactional

RationalRelationalCultural

What

How

Probable/

Analytic

Plausible/

Syntetic

Fore

sigh

t kno

wle

dge

© Arne Eriksson 2006© Arne Eriksson 2006.Adapted from S. Flinn What is strategy.Adapted from S. Flinn What is strategy

Collective sensemakin

g

Investing in capabilities: why, which, by whom,

when

Branding

Present strategi

es

Projects

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A regional innovation system with clusters reflecting regional specialisation

Interface forrenewal

Capabilities ratherthan products andservices

© Arne Eriksson

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KIBS contributes in many ways

Renewal Routine NetworkComplianceof rules

Innovation andexploration

Transactional

efficiencyCustomer managed relations and integration

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Value innovation (Blue Ocean Strategy)

Global process networks

Orchestration andNetwork mgmt Which capabilities will

be requried to be successful ?

© Arne Eriksson

Value innovation

Value for customer

Cost

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Dynamic regional capabilities

• innovation capability

• collective learning

• networking

• leadership and governance

• foresightedness

Källa: Harmaakorpi

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Plan and realityThe plan1.Use systemic methods2.Stakeholder analysis - identify leaders and host organizations in the region3.Identify critical issues through interviews and analysis4.Prepare issues papers for panels5. Foresight as a strategic mgmt activity6.Run cluster based focusgroups/panels7.Run a convent to reach synthesis and decisions

The reality1.Scanned SSM, SODA and others. Decided it would take to much effort to be professional in its application2. Ongoing. Still some work to do to cover the whole region. Face some problems with mobilization3. Done. The strategic decision that changed the process was to focus on KIBS as a key sector/set of capabilities4. Under way. Some problems with the compressed time schedule5. Using ”the strategy canvas” from Blue Ocean Strategy for focus groups6. Will be run in May7. June 12-13

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Lessons and impressions so farUnderestimated the financial resources needed to

do a preforesight in really professional way (€ 60 000)

The need for a training program for decisions makers (from the public sector) to communicate the difference between a foresight process and ”standard procedure”. (We had it in our plan but it became not more than a short seminar)

We tend as usual to grossly underestimate the time required for collective social processes. My guess is that a foresight cycle probably should be designed to run over 3-4 years.