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by

Lourdes V. Tibig

Presented at the In-Session Workshop on Impacts of and Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change,

Bonn, Germany, 18 June 2004

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The Philippines

7,107 islands

total area: ~ 300,000 km2

total coastline : 33,900 km.

total forest lands: 15 million hectares

wetlands:14,100 km2

groundwater resources:50,000 km2

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climate

• high maximum and minimum temperatures

• heavy annual rainfall : 1000 mm to 5000 mm

• mean tropical cyclone occurrences : 20 per year

trends

• increasing daytime temperatures, more hot days

• increasing night time temperatures, more warm nights

• no significant trends in rainfall

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non-climate factors

• demography:

~ 80 million in 2000 with an annual growth rate of 2.4%

large population in megacities

• economy:

mostly agriculture-based

• land-use change:

enormous due to industrialization and population growth

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How are climate variability /change risks perceived in the Philippines?

• weather/climate-related hazards (in terms of damages, fatalities and social and economic costs)

• socio-economic vulnerabilities (including environmental changes/degradation)

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• weather/climate-related hazards

floods

- tropical cyclones

- storm surges

- intense monsoon rains

droughts

- El Niño -related

Number and intensity of these extreme events have been seen to increase.

Damages due to these events have also been increasing.

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NUMBER OF DEATHS

Earthquake & Others 25%

tropical Cyclones 68%

Floodings 5%

Landslides 2%

PERSONS AFFECTED

Tropical Cyclones 77%

Earthquake & Others 4%

Floodings 13%

Drought 6%

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGESTropical Cyclones 70%

Earthquake & Others 15%

Floodings 4%

Drought 11%

Figure 2: Major natural disasters in the Philippines (1971- 2000)

In 1995, 3 destructive tropical cyclones caused

fatalities :

1,164 risk is 1 person in every 50,000

losses:

US$ 601.75 million contribution of 1 person in every 91 or contribution of 708,000 persons to the GNP for 1995

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vulnerability to climate variability

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5

10

15

20

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1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001Year

Lo

sses/d

am

ag

es (

P b

illio

n)

Figure 3: The costs of disastrous tropical cyclones have exhibited an upward trend in recent decades.

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Climate change risks for each sector

Agriculture and food supply sector

highly dependent on water (both a resource and a hazard)

Figure 6: Philippine rice production. (Arrows indicate El Niño events.)

In 1998, the El Niño event caused an 80% - drop in agricultural

production.

- for rice production alone, a US$ 100 million loss

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Coastal resources

Its vulnerability :

- 10 cm/decade SLR in some coastal cities

- long history of storm surges (48 known occurrences in 50 years with as much as 9-m storm surge height)

- some areas already partially inundated

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Coastal resources (continued)

endangered access to clean water during floods

intrusion of saltwater in its agricultural areas

aggravated flooding potential esp. in low-lying areas

higher risks to lives and damages in coastal areas

impacts on marine ecosystems (reefs, corals, etc.)

- more frequent episodes of toxic red tides

- migration of fish to areas with more favorable conditions leading to diminished harvest (coastal fishing = 40 – 60% of total

fish catch)

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Water resources

impacts of La Niña /El Niño

La Niña more intense rains floods, soil erosion more tropical cyclone occurrences

Climate change impacts

frequency of floods/droughts amount/quality of water (impacts on agriculture,

power generation, public health, etc.)

El Niño diminished rains less groundwater

shorter return periods of floods

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Human health sector

Figure 7: Potential health impacts of climate and its change

will further lead to climatic stress on human health

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More extreme events will lead to:

• disruptions of environmental health services and infrastructures (water supply,public sanitation, etc.)

• significant rise in water-, food- and vector-borne diseases

• conditions that could cause outbreak of diseases like dengue, malaria and cholera (esp. in depressed areas)

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some expected climate risks for health

• could cause an increase in epidemic potential of 12 to 27% for malaria, 31 to 47% for dengue, 11 to 17% for schistosomiasis, etc.

• more frequent cholera and diarrhea incidences

• could also cause an increase in respiratory illnesses

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Summary:

Climate change will alter the number and

frequency of extreme events which could cause

the exponential increase of adverse impacts

on humans, natural ecosystems and the

environment in the Philippines, (most

important of which are human survival and the

quality of life).

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Climate change will have lasting consequences.

In addressing climate change,

the job is just beginning.

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