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![Page 1: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
Avril 2010
![Page 2: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to
avoid giving people the impression we know more than we
do.
(Donald Kohn, January 5th 2008)
![Page 3: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Économie mondiale : reprise inégale (croissance du PIB réel en %)
2008 2009 2010 2011 Monde 2.9 -0.7 4.4 4.4
É-U. 0.4 -2.4 3.3 2.7 Japon -1.2 -5.2 2.8 1.1 Euro-15 0.5 -4.0 1.5 2.5
Asie x-Japon 7.0 5.9 8.1 7.7
Canada 0.4 -2.6 3.0 2.5
Québec 1.0 -1.8 2.8 2.4
Ontario -0.4 -3.2 3.0 2.6
Source : Recherche économique VMBL, Credit Suisse
![Page 4: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Le système financier a été stabilisé…
Ted Spread (spread between 3-months Libor and US T-Bills)
1009080706050403Source: Haver Analytics
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
![Page 5: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
… mais pas rétabli!
U.S. Banking System - Cash as a Share of Total Assets
05009590858075Source: Haver Analytics
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
![Page 6: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Liquidity trap?
Money Multiplier(Money supply / demand ratio)
10050095908580757065Source: Haver Analytics
14
12
10
8
6
4
14
12
10
8
6
4
![Page 7: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Crédit bancaire toujours en baisse
Banques américaines
Prêts à la consommation (milliards $, gauche)Prêts industriels et commerciaux (milliards $, droite)
050095908580Sources: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
1600
1200
800
400
0
![Page 8: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Le marché du travail est encore en « récession »
Durée moyenne au chômage aux États-Unis(en semaines, éch. de gauche)
Taux de chômage(éch. de droite)
05009590858075Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
12
10
8
6
4
2
![Page 9: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
99
Tous les emplois créés lors du dernier cycle ont été perdus!
Emploi total aux États-Unis (en milliers)
100908070605040302010099Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
138000
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
126000
138000
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
126000
![Page 10: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Le revenu du travail est encore faible
Payrolls Index: Total Private Industries -- level
0908070605Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
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11
Le revenu est toujours faible.
Payrolls Index: Total Private Industries -- level
050095908580757065Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
![Page 12: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
« Explosion » de la consommation:
U.S. Consumption / GDP Ratio (left)
Personal Saving Rate (right)
05009590858075706560
Source: Haver Analytics
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
![Page 13: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
… facilité par la « démocratisation » du crédit,
Crédit à la consommation aux États-Unis(Part en % des banques commerciales)
05009590858075Source: Haver Analytics
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
![Page 14: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
« l’innovation » financière et …
Securitised Mortgages in the US(Share of Private Conduits)
0500959085807570
Source: Haver Analytics
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
![Page 15: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
« l’exubérance » personnelle !
Confiance des consommateurs américains(Conference Board, 1985=100)
090807060504030201009998979695Source: The Conference Board /Haver Analytics
150
125
100
75
50
25
150
125
100
75
50
25
![Page 16: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Le Canada n’est pas les États-Unis!
Et le Canada?
![Page 17: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Le marché hypothécaire est plus traditionnel!
Dette hypothécaire en proportion du PIB
États-Unis
Canada
05009590Source: Haver Analytics
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
![Page 18: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Le système financier canadien, sans être parfait, fonctionne. Les banques prêtent toujours!
Crédit aux entreprises (chang. annuel en %)
Crédit aux ménages(chang. annuel en %)
090807060504Sources: Bank of Canada /Haver Analytics
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
![Page 19: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Une « drôle » de récession au Canada : le marché du travail est plus solide
Canada: Emploi total(en milliers)
États-Unis: Emploi total(en milliers)
0908070605040302010099Sources: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
17250
16500
15750
15000
14250
138000
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
126000
![Page 20: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
… même si la chute de la production était similaire!
Canada: PIB réel par industrie (SAAR, millions de $, éch. de gauche)
É U : PIB réel (estimée mensuelle) (SAAR, milliards de $ , éch de gauche)
090807060504Sources: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics
1250000
1225000
1200000
1175000
1150000
1125000
1100000
13500
13250
13000
12750
12500
12250
12000
![Page 21: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
La récession canadienne a été très concentrée !
PIB réel canadien: industries des services(chang. annuel en %)
PIB réel canadien: industries des biens(chang. annuel en %)
0500959085Sources: Statistics Canada /Haver Analytics
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
![Page 22: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Marchés financiers
Canada: Benchmark Bond Yields: 5-years% (I)
Canada: Treasury Bills: 3-months% (I)
09080706050403020100Sources: Bank of Canada /Haver Analytics
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
![Page 23: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Une politique monétaire prudente
Taux directeur des banques centrales
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00
Dec
-98
Dec
-99
Dec
-00
Dec
-01
Dec
-02
Dec
-03
Dec
-04
Dec
-05
Dec
-06
Dec
-07
Dec
-08
Dec
-09
Dec
-10
Dec
-11
Taux de fin. à un jour de la BdCTaux directeur de la Fed
Source: Banque du Canada, Réserv e fédérale américaine
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24
Financial Markets)
S&P/TSX Composite Index
Canadian dollar (US$ / C$)
090807Sources: TSX, FRBNY/H /Haver
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
1.125
1.050
0.975
0.900
0.825
0.750
![Page 25: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Défis à moyen terme :
1. Démographique2. Compétitif / productivité3. Endettement public
![Page 26: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Marchés financiers
Canada: Corporate Profits / GDP ratio(1960-2008 avg = 10.4%)
05009590858075706560
Source: Haver Analytics
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
![Page 27: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Secteur manufacturier canadien
Manufacturing Share of GDP
0500959085Source: Haver Analytics
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
![Page 28: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Secteur manufacturier canadien
Canada: GDP: Manufacturing SAAR, Mil.Chn.2002.C$
09080706050403020100999897Source: Statistics Canada /Haver Analytics
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000
140000
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000
140000
![Page 29: 1 Avril 2010. 2 We cannot say more than we know and we should strive to avoid giving people the impression we know more than we do. (Donald Kohn, January.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062511/551d9d80497959293b8b8ca0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Avril 2010