1 AU/EU Joint Summit Lisbon 8 th December 2007 African Economic Outlook 2007 Measuring the Pulse of...
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Transcript of 1 AU/EU Joint Summit Lisbon 8 th December 2007 African Economic Outlook 2007 Measuring the Pulse of...
1AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
African Economic Outlook 2007
Measuring the Pulse of Africa
Louis Kasekende Chief Economist, African Development Bank
Javier SantisoChief Development Economist, OECD Development
Centre
8 December 2007 Africa EU Summit
2AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
The African Economic Outlook Project11
AfricaAfrica’s’s Economic Performance Economic Performance 06/07 06/07: Multifaceted Growth: Multifaceted Growth22
Measuring The Pulse of AfricaMeasuring The Pulse of Africa33
3AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
Main Financial Partner
Junior partners
Lead partner
Consultants, think tanks …
Experts Network
AEOAEO Africa, EU, OECD: a unique partnership
UNECA
4AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AEOAEO An innovative product
• Comprehensive, independent analysis
• Short-term macroeconomic forecasts
• Special annual focus
2003: Privatization2004: Energy2005: SMEs2006: Transport2007: Water and sanitation2008: Technical & vocational training
1. Overview & annual thematic focus
2. Comparable country chapters
3. Statistical annex and indicators
5AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
Algeria
Libya Egypt
Mauritania
Mali
Niger
Chad
Dem.Rep. Congo
Sudan
Central AfricanRepublic
Equatorial Guinea
GabonCongo
Cameroon
Angola
Guinea-BissauGuinea
Sierra Leone
Liberia
Côted'Ivoire
Tunisia
BurkinaFaso
Ghana
Nigeria
Togo
Ethiopia
Somalia
Djibouti
Eritrea
Kenya
Tanzania
Mozambique
SouthAfrica
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Namibia
Zambia
Swaziland
Lesotho
Malawi
Uganda
Burundi
Rwanda
Madagascar
Senegal
Gambia
Morocco
AEO 2007
Sao Tome et principe
Mauritius
Comores
Cape verde
Benin
New in 2008:
Cape Verde
Liberia
Libya
Equatorial Guinea
AEOAEO Coverage 2007: 31 African countries
91% of GDP
86% of population
6AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
TThe African Economic Outlook Projecthe African Economic Outlook Project11
Africa’s Economic Performance 06/07: Multifaceted Growth22
Measuring The Pulse of AfricaMeasuring The Pulse of Africa33
7AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GrowthGrowth Africa continues steady growth
Growth is becoming more broad-based:•23 countries achieved GDP growth rate of above 5 % in 2006
•15 countries achieved GDP growth rate between 3% to 5% in 2006
In 2006, real GDP growth exceeded 5% for the third consecutive year
Total OECD
Africa
Source: AfDB/OECD
8AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GrowthGrowth The commodity boom: a key role
Global commodity prices 2001-2007
Source: World Bank
9AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GrowthGrowth Vibrant and Stable in oil-producing countries
26.9 %
Source: AfDB/OECD
Source: AfDB/OECD
10AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GrowthGrowth Gaining momentum in oil-importing countries
(%)
Source: AfDB/OECD
11AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GrowthGrowth The rewards of economic reform
Public finance management is generally good and improving
Greater macroeconomic stability attained :•Fiscal balance is positive•Inflation is stable
Africa: inflation and fiscal balance(2000-2006)
Source: AfDB
12AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GrowthGrowth Improved economic management
Source: AfDB
13AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GovernanceGovernance Fewer bullets, more ballots
Presidential elections
in 2006
Benin
Cape Verde*
Chad
DRC*
Gambia
Madagascar
Sao Tome et Principe*
Seychelles
Zambia*
Uganda
*Parliamentary elections also*Weighted sum of
events
14AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
GovernanceGovernance MDGs: slow progress despite growth
15AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AidAid Over the « hump » of debt relief
Source: OECD
16AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AidAid
… but aid is still falling short of Gleneagles commitments of doubling assistance to Africa by 2010
… there is little new aid beyond debt relief and humanitarian aid
ODA & debt relief have helped stimulate growth
17AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
OutlookOutlook Oil exporter & importers: divergent paths?
Oil and Mineral exportersChallenges:
• Capitalise on windfall gains• Maximise spillover to rest of the
economy• Avoid Dutch Disease
Trade Balance Inflation
Growth Fiscal Balance
Oil importersChallenges:
• Contain inflationary pressure• Finance widening trade deficit• Streamline spending to prioritise
poverty reduction
Source: AfDB/OECD
18AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
TThe African Economic Outlook Projecthe African Economic Outlook Project11
AfricaAfrica’s’s Economic Performance Economic Performance 06/07 06/07: Multifaceted Growth: Multifaceted Growth22
Measuring The Pulse of Africa33
19AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AEOAEO An African / European partnership
A Maturing Relationship
• An EU/OECD initiative with the African Development Bank
• Combining OECD approach (best practice, peer review) and AfDB regional expertise
• 2008: AfDB takes over as lead partner
A tool for business, finance & policy actors
• Expanding country coverage
• Improved modelling, forecasts & indicators
• Feeding into the policy-making process
• Supporting operational activities
• Increased co-operation with local institutions
20AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
20
Comparative, up-to-date and forward-looking tool
Monitoring progress towards MDGs of African countries: 31 countries in 2007 and 35 in 2008!
Analysing crucial themes for Africa development
Previous years: privatisation, energy, SME financing, transport, water
AEO 2008: “Technical Skills Development in Africa”
Deeply rooted in African realities
Network of local experts, constant dialogue with stakeholders
Quality peer review involving AfDB country and sector economists
Sound Statistical analysis and data computation
Original indicators (political troubles, diversification) and macro forecasts
New background research:Working papers on political indicators, privatisation, etc.
AEOAEO An indispensable tool
21AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AEOAEO A strong African voice in policy dialogue
Promoting public debate on economic policies
• At national level (African policy makers)
• At regional and continental level (input for African Peer Review Mechanism)
• Building indicators tracking main APRM areas of focus
• Promoting best practice and lessons learned through experience
Supporting the International Dialogue on Africa’s Development
• Monitoring capacity-building in infrastructure, trade, institutions
• Monitoring policy reforms, financial flows for development
Millennium Development Goals
• Monitoring progress in 31 countries in 2007, 35 in 2008
• AEO, a joint AfDB/OECD/UNECA contribution to Goal 8
22AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AEOAEO Net Progression in Media Impact
Citations in mainstream media
Source: OECD
23AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AEOAEO Practical involvement in policy outcomes
Water• Inefficiencies not in resources, but in management
Transport Infrastructure • Reverse neglect through strategic PPP projects drawing on exterior
funding
Energy • Coordination of regional energy investment structures
SME financing • Facilitation of SME-business friendly environments
The AEO contributes to the issues debated at today’s EU-Africa Summit
24AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
AEOAEO Questions for the Summit
• How can the African Economic Outlook help develop African economies?
• How can the AEO contribute to reinforce the co-operation between Africa and Europe?
• How can African input more effectively into the AEO process?
25AU/EU Joint Summit
Lisbon 8th December 2007
Thank you
Obrigado
More information:www.oecd.org/dev/aeo