1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney...

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1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC) George Millward (SWPC and CIRES) Tim Fuller-Rowell (SWPC and CIRES)

Transcript of 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney...

Page 1: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

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Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM)

Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC)Contributors:

Rashid Akmaev (SWPC) George Millward (SWPC and CIRES)Tim Fuller-Rowell (SWPC and CIRES)

Page 2: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

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Operational System Attribute(s)

System Name Acronym Areal Coverage Horz Res

Cycle Freq

Fcst Length

(hr)

Wang-Sheeley-Arge Enlil WSA-Enlil Sun to Earth 2 hr 72 hr

Space Weather Modeling Framework (operational in Oct 2015)

SWMF - Geospace

Magnetosphere 1 min 0.5 hr

Whole Atmosphere Model (extended GFS) (operational in 2018)

WAM Global up to 600 km alt

200 km

1-3 hr 120 hr

Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model

IPE Global 100 – 1000 km alt

5 min 72 hr

System Attributes

WSA-Enlil No DA

SWMF Geospace

No DA

WDAS GDAS + middle atmosphere data between 60 and 100 km

IDAS Ionosphere/thermosphere data assimilation (100 – 600 km) currently under development

System Data Assimilation or Initialization Technique

Page 3: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

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Why WAM Will Be Operational

Primary stakeholders and requirement drivers• Space Weather Prediction Center• Space weather customers (GPS, Radio Communication, Satellite Drag,…)

Airlines, satellites, agriculture, transportation, emergency managers, DOD, etc… What products are the models contributing to?

Multi-day forecasts of thermosphere and ionosphere What product aspects are you trying to improve with your development

plans? Improved ionosphere specification and forecast accuracy Global coverage Multi-day ionosphere and thermosphere forecasts

Top 3 System Performance Strengths• Unique capability to model and forecast all drivers of the Ionosphere/thermosphere

system• Leveraging GDAS/GFS multi-day forecasts of troposphere for space weather• Improved troposphere forecasts

Top 3 System Performance Challenges • New physics, chemistry, and dynamics for the middle and upper atmosphere• New data assimilation scheme required for ionosphere/thermosphere

Page 4: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

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System Evolution Over the Next 5 Years

Major forcing factors• Expanded use of technologies impacted by space weather (new customers)• New physical understanding and new modeling capabilities provide new forecast

opportunities Science and development priorities

• Adding physics of middle and upper atmosphere to WAM• Including real-time space weather drivers in WAM • Improving gravity wave parameterization (adding non-orographic gravity waves)• Coupling the neutral atmosphere to the ionosphere (WAM to the IPE ionosphere

model)• Developing DA systems for the upper atmosphere and ionosphere

What are you top challenges to evolving the system(s) to meet stakeholder requirements?• Monumental effort to develop, validate, and “operationalize” WAM and IPE• Ensuring that space weather modeling requirements are included in modeling

system upgrades.• Horizontal diffusion, deep atmosphere, T>2000K, U>1000m/s, Thermodynamics eq.

solved for enthalpy, tracers, etc…

Potential opportunities for simplification going forward• Collaboration in the middle atmosphere (extending GFS and GDAS to 100 km)• Leveraging model improvements such as NGGPS

Page 5: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

Backup Slides

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Page 6: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

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Top 3 Things You Need From the UMAC

1. #1…..

2. #2……

3. #3……

Page 7: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

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Thermosphere

Mesosphere

Global Forecast Systems

Model0 – 60 km

Whole Atmosphere Model

(Neutral Atmosphere)0 – 600 km

Ionosphere Plasmasphere

Electrodynamics Model

Model Development in the Thermosphere-Ionosphere: Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA)

Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS)Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE)Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE)

Whole Atmosphere

Model

Stratosphere

Troposphere

• WAM follows a latitude longitude pressure grid system• IPE grid follows the magnetic field lines of Earth

2015 February 10

Space Weather Drivers• Solar EUV/X-ray Irradiance• Geomagnetic Storms

Page 8: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

2009 Sudden Strat. Warm Event: WAM vs GFS ForecastWAM Predicts Strat-Warm 2 Days Before GFS

WAM and GFS forecast from Jan 13, 2009 of T and U @ 10 hPa vs GDAS analysis.

WAM and GFS forecast from Jan 15, 2009 of T and U @ 10 hPa vs GDAS analysis.

The full impact of WAM on tropospheric forecasts needs to be evaluated

Page 9: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

• ptop = 1.5×10-7 Pa (O exobase)• T62L150 (~ 22, ~ 0 – 600 km)• Free runs or A/F cycle (WDAS)• Composition dependent R & Cp

• Height dependent g(z)

Physics• Horizontal & vertical mixing (no

“sponge”)• Radiative heating: EUV, UV, &

non-LTE IR• Major neutrals (O, O2, N2)

WAM = Extended GFS

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GFS top 99.97% of mass

Desirable• Extend higher, to He exobase• More global tracers

Page 10: 1 Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC) Contributors: Rashid Akmaev (SWPC)

1. 3D physics (not in vertical columns): horizontal diffusion

2. Thermodynamics equation solved for enthalpy

3. Deep atmosphere• g(z)• r = rE + z

4. Tracers

5. Tolerance: T ≥ 2000 K and U ≥ 1000 m/s

WAM NGGPS requirements

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In W

AM

NG

GP

S R

eqs