1. 2 The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication or, The 3% Solution Dave Lindbergh...

2

The Past, Present, and Future The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunicationof Video Telecommunication

or,or,

The 3% SolutionThe 3% Solution

Dave LindberghDave Lindbergh

IMTC Fall ForumIMTC Fall ForumNovember 2008November 2008

The Past, Present, and Future of Video Telecommunication – Dave Lindbergh – November 2008 3

ContentsContents

Hooke Labs & how we use videoHooke Labs & how we use video

PastPast– How we got to this pointHow we got to this point

Present Present – Successful niches for videoSuccessful niches for video– Why no mass-market adoption of video?Why no mass-market adoption of video?– False reasonsFalse reasons– User expectations User expectations Correct reasons (my opinion) Correct reasons (my opinion)

FutureFuture– How to succeed: The 3% SolutionHow to succeed: The 3% Solution


ThesisThesis

Video telecom is in < 1% of conference roomsVideo telecom is in < 1% of conference rooms– ~ 0% of homes~ 0% of homes

Mass acceptance has never occurredMass acceptance has never occurred– Despite huge consumer enthusiasm for videoDespite huge consumer enthusiasm for video– Despite good solutions to traditional problemsDespite good solutions to traditional problems

Because the Because the quality of experiencequality of experience falls short falls short– The “sense of being there” is disappointingThe “sense of being there” is disappointing

This will changeThis will change– Telepresence market is the leverTelepresence market is the lever– Gradual improvements will lead to the mass-marketGradual improvements will lead to the mass-market


Hooke’s use of videoHooke’s use of video


Hooke LaboratoriesHooke Laboratories

Start-up biotech CRO & manufacturerStart-up biotech CRO & manufacturer

Typical CRO contract $5000 to $50,000Typical CRO contract $5000 to $50,000

Customers all over the worldCustomers all over the world– USA, CanadaUSA, Canada– EuropeEurope– AsiaAsia– South AmericaSouth America


Hooke is well-equipped for videoHooke is well-equipped for video

Co-founder w/14 years in video conferencingCo-founder w/14 years in video conferencingBroadband Internet connectionBroadband Internet connectionSkype + webcamsSkype + webcamsPolycom VSX 7000 (H.323, SIP, H.320)Polycom VSX 7000 (H.323, SIP, H.320)


How often does Hooke use video?How often does Hooke use video?

NeverNever– Not onceNot once

Why not?Why not? And what can be done about that? And what can be done about that?– That is what this talk is aboutThat is what this talk is about


How we got hereHow we got here


Video telephony systemVideo telephony system

18 frames/second 18 frames/second

Progressive scanProgressive scan

Plasma displayPlasma display

Pixel aspect ratio 3:2Pixel aspect ratio 3:2

Image quality described as “excellent”Image quality described as “excellent”

End-to-end latency 1 millisecond End-to-end latency 1 millisecond (great!)(great!)


7 April 1927 – Bell Labs7 April 1927 – Bell Labs


New York – Washington DCNew York – Washington DC

Walter Gifford Herbert HooverPresident, AT&T US Sec’y of CommerceNew York Washington DC


““Television” = Telephone + VisionTelevision” = Telephone + Vision

50x50 pixel display, neon bulbs50x50 pixel display, neon bulbs

Camera: Arc lamp beam, mechanical scanningCamera: Arc lamp beam, mechanical scanning

Optional projection to 2x3 feetOptional projection to 2x3 feet– But “results were not so good”But “results were not so good”

Edna Mae Horner

Operator

Chesapeake and Potomac Telephone Company


AT&T PicturephoneAT&T Picturephone

1957 “Experimental Model”


Early 1960sEarly 1960s

Mirror


AT&T was very seriousAT&T was very serious

Plenty of smart business people!Plenty of smart business people!

1964


FramingFraming


AT&T was not aloneAT&T was not alone

NTT, 1968 Philips, 1974

Lots of investment, market research, usability studies…Lots of investment, market research, usability studies…


AT&T quietly gave up in the early 1970sAT&T quietly gave up in the early 1970s

Did it “Did it “cost too muchcost too much”?”?


1980s – Still image picture phones1980s – Still image picture phones

Mid-1980s: Japanese consumer electronic Mid-1980s: Japanese consumer electronic firms introduced still-image picture phonesfirms introduced still-image picture phones– Used existing regular analog phone lineUsed existing regular analog phone line– POTS modemPOTS modem– ~ 5 seconds to send 1 black & white frame~ 5 seconds to send 1 black & white frame– No audio during picture transmissionNo audio during picture transmission– ~$200 each~$200 each

Very few takersVery few takers


1992 – AT&T Videophone 2500 1992 – AT&T Videophone 2500

““Predicting that 10 years from now Predicting that 10 years from now video phones will be as popular as video phones will be as popular as cordless phones and fax machines, cordless phones and fax machines, last week AT&T introduced the first last week AT&T introduced the first full-color motion video phone that full-color motion video phone that operates over regular phone lines…”operates over regular phone lines…”– NewsweekNewsweek, January 20, 1992, January 20, 1992

10 frames/second, $150010 frames/second, $1500

Marconi, others, had similar productsMarconi, others, had similar products


Many more videophones since thenMany more videophones since then

They all workedThey all worked

Their makers all Their makers all expected expected commercial successcommercial success

And why not?And why not?– Consumers are Consumers are

consistently excitedconsistently excited at the idea of video at the idea of video telecommunicationtelecommunication

Siemens T-View (H.320 ISDN) ~ 1997


Maybe the technology wasn’t readyMaybe the technology wasn’t ready

Too expensiveToo expensive

Poor video qualityPoor video quality

Not enough bandwidthNot enough bandwidth

Maybe the time is finally rightMaybe the time is finally right

– Maybe your company is thinking about Maybe your company is thinking about introducing a video phoneintroducing a video phone

– Maybe you think now is the timeMaybe you think now is the time

If so…If so…


……you are not aloneyou are not alone


Others have thought so, tooOthers have thought so, too


Really, more than you might thinkReally, more than you might think


...a lot more...a lot more


……and more…and more…


……and more.and more.


Today:Today:

Video phones are in every home Video phones are in every home and every officeand every office

Well, noWell, no

Why not???Why not???


People People wantwant video communication video communication

Witness all the attemptsWitness all the attempts

Just talk to potential users – lots of excitementJust talk to potential users – lots of excitement

But they don’t buy or use video when offeredBut they don’t buy or use video when offered– Except for narrow niche applicationsExcept for narrow niche applications

For some reason people are disappointedFor some reason people are disappointed– We need to understand We need to understand whywhy before we can fix this before we can fix this


Progress so farProgress so far


A successful, but small, industryA successful, but small, industry

Video Video conferencingconferencing– ~$2B/year (generously)~$2B/year (generously)– Doesn’t seem to be growing muchDoesn’t seem to be growing much

TelepresenceTelepresence– ~$100M/year(?), growing fast~$100M/year(?), growing fast– Expense limits market size Expense limits market size

(Wainhouse says < $1B)(Wainhouse says < $1B)


Video telecommunication todayVideo telecommunication today

Video conferencing offered since mid-1980sVideo conferencing offered since mid-1980s– More than 20 yearsMore than 20 years

More successful than video phonesMore successful than video phones

Why?Why?– High-value application High-value application – Relatively big picture, high resolutionRelatively big picture, high resolution– Less restriction on where people are in the frameLess restriction on where people are in the frame– More “More “like being therelike being there” than video phones” than video phones– At work – people are At work – people are paidpaid to use it to use it

But…But…


After 20+ years, video is in < 1% of conference roomsAfter 20+ years, video is in < 1% of conference rooms– Lots of room for growth Lots of room for growth – Similar problems as stopped video telephony Similar problems as stopped video telephony

Source:

http://www.emarketer.com/

Article.aspx?id=1006610

October 14, 2008


People People wantwant visual communication visual communication

So – Why?So – Why?


Challenges today – Challenges today – are these the problem?are these the problem?

Connectivity issuesConnectivity issues

– Incompatible protocols & standardsIncompatible protocols & standards

– NATs and firewallsNATs and firewalls

– Network fragmentationNetwork fragmentation• IP, ISDN, POTS, 3G, 4G…IP, ISDN, POTS, 3G, 4G…

– No public/automatic gateways and bridgesNo public/automatic gateways and bridges

Too much latency Too much latency – And lots of denial about it; doesn’t helpAnd lots of denial about it; doesn’t help


Videophones didn’t have connectivity Videophones didn’t have connectivity problems (mostly) problems (mostly)

Early videophones solved connectivityEarly videophones solved connectivity– Offered & operated by carriersOffered & operated by carriers– Simple analog devicesSimple analog devices

Many videophones were utterly reliable Many videophones were utterly reliable – POTS models used voice network (w/modems)POTS models used voice network (w/modems)

Reliability was not the problemReliability was not the problem

Connectivity was not the problemConnectivity was not the problem


Why no mass adoption – is it cost?Why no mass adoption – is it cost?

AT&T spent $billions – lots of market researchAT&T spent $billions – lots of market research– Best and brightest people in the worldBest and brightest people in the world– They were sure it would sellThey were sure it would sell

Many Many freefree services: PC + $15 webcam services: PC + $15 webcam– Skype, AIM, Yahoo, MS Messenger, NetMeeting…Skype, AIM, Yahoo, MS Messenger, NetMeeting…

Many video phones were/are offered by Many video phones were/are offered by carriers with subsidiescarriers with subsidies– Phones under $300 commonPhones under $300 common– Same usage fees as voice callsSame usage fees as voice calls

Probably not costProbably not cost


Is it ease of use?Is it ease of use?

AT&T Picturephone AT&T Picturephone waswas a telephone a telephone– Pick up phone, dial numberPick up phone, dial number

Most videophones are equally easy to useMost videophones are equally easy to use

Probably not ease of useProbably not ease of use


Is it video quality? Latency?Is it video quality? Latency?

Many products have very good video qualityMany products have very good video quality– Even bad pictures look good on small displaysEven bad pictures look good on small displays– 1960s analog phones had good quality1960s analog phones had good quality

Modern VC systems have excellent video Modern VC systems have excellent video quality, large displays, but still haven’t enjoyed quality, large displays, but still haven’t enjoyed mass adoptionmass adoption

Phones of the 1960s and 1970s were analog Phones of the 1960s and 1970s were analog – No extra latencyNo extra latency

Probably not these, eitherProbably not these, either– All these things are very important – All these things are very important – necessarynecessary– But they don’t seem to be But they don’t seem to be sufficientsufficient


The mass adoption barrierThe mass adoption barrier

Video Video conferencingconferencing is a successful niche is a successful niche– But very far from mass adoption (< 1%)But very far from mass adoption (< 1%)

Video Video telephonytelephony hasn’t succeeded yet hasn’t succeeded yet– Yet, clearly there is a market desire!Yet, clearly there is a market desire!

Current issues do not explain past failuresCurrent issues do not explain past failures– Standards, connectivity were solved for videophonesStandards, connectivity were solved for videophones– Latency was not a problem in the analog worldLatency was not a problem in the analog world

Then Then what is required for successwhat is required for success??– Why have users not yet embraced video telephony?Why have users not yet embraced video telephony?


Fiction creates expectationsFiction creates expectations

Metropolis (Fritz Lang, 1926)


Fiction Fiction reflectsreflects expectations expectations

The Jetsons (Hanna-Barbera, 1962)

Where Where are the are the cameras?cameras?

This is This is impossible impossible with today’s with today’s videovideo

But it is But it is expectedexpected

The Jetsons (Hanna-Barbera, 1962)


Perfect framing, perfect lightingPerfect framing, perfect lighting

Star Trek (Paramount, 1967)


Nobody is nervous “on camera”Nobody is nervous “on camera”

2001: A Space Odyssey (Stanley Kubrick, 1968)

Actors look straight into the cameraActors look straight into the cameraProfessional cinematography / videographyProfessional cinematography / videographyMultiple camera positions & zoomsMultiple camera positions & zoomsDirectors choose the best shotsDirectors choose the best shots


Real video is not like fictional videoReal video is not like fictional video


What will it take for mass adoption?What will it take for mass adoption?

MoreMore than just: than just:– CostCost– LatencyLatency– ReliabilityReliability– ConnectivityConnectivity– ResolutionResolution– Picture sizePicture size– Ease of useEase of use

These are all These are all necessarynecessary, but not , but not sufficientsufficient


What What isis the problem, then? the problem, then?


Quality of ExperienceQuality of Experience

The “sense of being there” is disappointingThe “sense of being there” is disappointing– At least, weaker than people expect & wantAt least, weaker than people expect & want

VC is VC is not enoughnot enough like being in the same place like being in the same place– Eye contactEye contact– Peripheral visionPeripheral vision– Depth perception Depth perception – Awareness of framingAwareness of framing– Perceived distance to other peoplePerceived distance to other people– Ability to interruptAbility to interrupt

– Certainly other things, tooCertainly other things, too


Video is much harder than it seemsVideo is much harder than it seems

Video is Video is notnot “just another channel” “just another channel”– Text, audio, video, right? Wrong.Text, audio, video, right? Wrong.

Far-end can’t tell where you put the keyboardFar-end can’t tell where you put the keyboard

Microphone location is not very important Microphone location is not very important

The camera location The camera location mattersmatters– Each person has a different viewpointEach person has a different viewpoint– People direct their gaze at each otherPeople direct their gaze at each other– People are aware when others look at them People are aware when others look at them – Viewpoints matterViewpoints matter


George Jetson & Mr. SpacelyGeorge Jetson & Mr. Spacely

Study this imageStudy this image

It illustrates a lot It illustrates a lot about what about what consumers consumers expectexpect from video from video telecommunicationtelecommunication



Mr. Spacely is much Mr. Spacely is much largerlarger than Jetson than Jetson

That is because Mr. That is because Mr. Spacely is the bossSpacely is the boss



Jetson is Jetson is not not thinkingthinking about about whether he’s still whether he’s still in the framein the frame

Even though he’s Even though he’s jumped out of his jumped out of his seatseat



Mr. Spacely Mr. Spacely appears appears very very closeclose to Jetson to Jetson– A confrontational A confrontational

distancedistance– NotNot at the opposite at the opposite

end of a roomend of a room

This is This is whywhy he’s he’s jumped out of his jumped out of his seatseat



Mr. Spacely’s image Mr. Spacely’s image is is aboveabove Jetson Jetson

This, also, is This, also, is because Spacely because Spacely is the bossis the boss



We expect that We expect that Spacely has Spacely has peripheral visionperipheral vision– Spacely could tellSpacely could tell

if we (the viewer) if we (the viewer) were in the roomwere in the room

We feel Spacely We feel Spacely could look at us if could look at us if he wanted tohe wanted to



We can tell who We can tell who Mr. Spacely is Mr. Spacely is looking atlooking at

Jetson and Spacely Jetson and Spacely have have eye contacteye contact



But weBut we, the viewer, the viewer, , do not have eye do not have eye contact with either contact with either of themof them

Because Because they are they are looking at each looking at each otherother, not us, not us

If we were in the If we were in the room, this would room, this would feel naturalfeel natural



The artist knows all The artist knows all this without being this without being toldtold

But video engineers But video engineers do notdo not


Video viewpoints & perspectivesVideo viewpoints & perspectives

Image sizeImage size matters mattersDisplay distanceDisplay distance matters matters– These depend on each otherThese depend on each other– AndAnd on type of conversation on type of conversation

Camera heightCamera height matters matters– Face above camera = DominantFace above camera = Dominant

• like Mr. Spacelylike Mr. Spacely• Judges and kings sit up highJudges and kings sit up high

There is no single “right” answerThere is no single “right” answer– People can either stand or sitPeople can either stand or sit– Multiple viewers in different Multiple viewers in different

positionspositions

1984 (Apple Computer, 1984)

V for Vendetta (James McTeigue, 2006)


FramingFraming

MotherMother (Albert Brooks, 1996) (Albert Brooks, 1996)– Rob Morrow and Debbie Reynolds on videophoneRob Morrow and Debbie Reynolds on videophone

In film & TV, directors choose the right shot In film & TV, directors choose the right shot – And change shotsAnd change shots– To focus attention on what is importantTo focus attention on what is important

Consciousness of framing can be distractingConsciousness of framing can be distracting

Loose enough for freedom of movementLoose enough for freedom of movementEnough detail & size to see faces clearlyEnough detail & size to see faces clearly– Difficult to achieve both at the same timeDifficult to achieve both at the same time– Main achievement of today’s “telepresence” systemsMain achievement of today’s “telepresence” systems


Perceived interpersonal distancePerceived interpersonal distance

Critical for natural-feeling conversationCritical for natural-feeling conversation

Controlled by size Controlled by size andand distance of image distance of image

““Right” distance varies by type of conversationRight” distance varies by type of conversation– Intimate, professional, adversarial, etc.Intimate, professional, adversarial, etc.– Some cultural dependenceSome cultural dependence


More stuffMore stuff

Peripheral visionPeripheral vision– Who is thereWho is there– Who is looking at usWho is looking at us– Who is paying attentionWho is paying attention– Who is trying to interruptWho is trying to interrupt

Side conversationsSide conversations

Depth perceptionDepth perception– FocusFocus– ParallaxParallax


Why is this so complicated?Why is this so complicated?

Voice telephony doesn’t have these problemsVoice telephony doesn’t have these problems– So why does So why does addingadding video make things video make things worseworse??

Because people are evolved to talk in the darkBecause people are evolved to talk in the dark– This is why using the telephone feels naturalThis is why using the telephone feels natural

Because video is Because video is notnot “just another channel” “just another channel”– But that’s how engineers usually think about itBut that’s how engineers usually think about it– It’s something It’s something very differentvery different

The visual communications experience is The visual communications experience is expected to feel more natural and intuitiveexpected to feel more natural and intuitive


The 3% SolutionThe 3% Solution


What the market really wants:What the market really wants:TelepresenceTelepresence

The real thing – “The real thing – “like being therelike being there””

Today’s telepresence is a big improvementToday’s telepresence is a big improvement– Picture size and quality are clearly sufficientPicture size and quality are clearly sufficient– Peripheral vision & framing are solvedPeripheral vision & framing are solved– High expense limits market sizeHigh expense limits market size

Mass acceptance requires high Quality of Mass acceptance requires high Quality of ExperienceExperience at an affordable costat an affordable cost

Under 1% of the potential market is served nowUnder 1% of the potential market is served now– Even Even smallsmall improvements can make a big difference improvements can make a big difference– Start by getting to 3%Start by getting to 3%


Telepresence = Innovation OpportunityTelepresence = Innovation Opportunity

Telepresence market is not as cost sensitiveTelepresence market is not as cost sensitive– But But veryvery interested in real improvements interested in real improvements– Tech will trickle down to lower-cost systems laterTech will trickle down to lower-cost systems later

It doesn’t have to be perfect – just a It doesn’t have to be perfect – just a littlelittle better better– Remember, 3% is the goal (!)Remember, 3% is the goal (!)

How to get there? How to get there? Prototype many ideasPrototype many ideas– Tinker, experiment … try out Tinker, experiment … try out lotslots of ideas of ideas– We We allall think our untested ideas will work! think our untested ideas will work!– Yet most new ideas failYet most new ideas fail– So So buildbuild them & them & testtest them – cheaply them – cheaply – Prototypes, not productsPrototypes, not products


Products vs. PrototypesProducts vs. Prototypes

FewFewUsable by anyoneUsable by anyoneReliableReliableInteroperableInteroperableCheap in volumeCheap in volumeAutomated with softwareAutomated with software

ManyManyUsable by builders onlyUsable by builders onlyClunkyClunkyUniqueUniqueExpensive (build just 2)Expensive (build just 2)Run manually by peopleRun manually by people

PrototypesProducts

Take risks, but ones you can afford – prototypesTake risks, but ones you can afford – prototypes– Most new ideas are no goodMost new ideas are no good– If it’s not risky, it’s not innovationIf it’s not risky, it’s not innovation


Example – CNN “hologram”, 2008-11-04Example – CNN “hologram”, 2008-11-04

Not really a hologramNot really a hologram

I don’t claim this is practicalI don’t claim this is practical

Shows only that more is possible than we are Shows only that more is possible than we are accustomed toaccustomed to

((clipclip))

Maybe better not to ask how it worksMaybe better not to ask how it works– Use it as an inspiration – how can Use it as an inspiration – how can youyou make it work? make it work?


Parting adviceParting advice

Try something newTry something newSeek improvementSeek improvementTinkerTinkerPrototypePrototypeUse off-the-shelf techUse off-the-shelf techListen to end-usersListen to end-usersLead the marketLead the marketFocus on un-served 99%Focus on un-served 99%

Repeat past failuresRepeat past failuresDespair at imperfectionDespair at imperfectionTheorizeTheorizeCommit to untried ideasCommit to untried ideasPush existing envelopePush existing envelopeListen to customersListen to customersFollow the competitionFollow the competitionFocus on existing 1%Focus on existing 1%

Don’tDo

SomeoneSomeone will get there & collect the pot of gold will get there & collect the pot of gold– Why not you?Why not you?


Thank you!Thank you!

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