1-1645 Mr Ralph Leszczynski

banchero costabanchero costa

banchero costa groupwww.bancosta.com ; [email protected]

Marine Money Asia Week 2014

Dry Bulk Shipping Prospects

Ralph Leszczynski

23-24 September 2014, Singapore

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Slowdown in China?

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Chinese imports in Jan-Aug 2014:

Iron ore 615 mt +16.7% y-o-y

Coal 202 mt -5.2% y-o-y

Soybeans 48 mt +16.1% y-o-y

Crude Oil 201 mt +8.4% y-o-y

It depends.

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China - Monthly Iron Ore Imports - Seasonality(source: customs data ; in million tonnes)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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A 17% growth in iron ore imports seems excessive when steel production grew by only 3 percent.

And steel prices keep falling as mills struggle with overcapacity.

All-time record stocks at ports seem to prove it.

Therefore, outlook for Q4 can only be bearish for iron ore imports.

But look forward for pre-CNY spike in Nov-Dec.

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China - Monthly Coal Imports - Seasonality(includes steam coal, coking coal and lignite ; in mln tonnes per month)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Many factors working against coal:

Slowing economyGreater energy efficiencyWar on pollutionStrong hydropower production

However:

Domestic mining still suffers from inefficiencies and rising costsBoth domestic output as well as imports targeted by new ash/sulphur legislationInternational prices keep fallingStocks are lowSeasonal Q4 spike

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Baltic Exchange Capesize TC Average - Seasonality(source: the baltic exchange , daily data, usd/day)

2011 2012 2013 2014

In the first half of 2014, Capesize rates were twice as high as last year, driven by record high iron ore trade. However the dividend has probably already been paid.

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Baltic Exchange Capesize TC Average - Seasonality(source: the baltic exchange , daily data, usd/day)

2011 2012 2013 2014

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Baltic Exchange Panamax TC Average - Seasonality(source: the baltic exchange , daily data, usd/day)

2011 2012 2013 2014

Panamaxes on the other hand have suffered from the weak coal and bauxite markets. However we could see better numbers in the last quarter if coal volumes improve.

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Deliveries and Fleet Growth

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Dry Bulk Deliveries + Orderbook in No. of Units - Annual (only units over 20,000 dwt)

Handysize Handymax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC

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Newbuilding deliveries have certainly declined by at least 40 percent from the levels of 2012

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08/2011 02/2012 08/2012 02/2013 08/2013 02/2014 08/2014

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Dry Bulk Deliveries in No. of Units - Monthly(only units over 20,000 dwt)


And indeed so far this year we have seen 20 percent fewer deliveries than in the same period last year

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08/2011 02/2012 08/2012 02/2013 08/2013 02/2014 08/2014

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Dry Bulk Demolition Activity in No. of Units - Monthly(only units over 20,000 dwt)


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Unfortunately, reported demolition sales are down by 37 percent compared to last year

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Deliveries and Demolitions in No. of Units - Jan-Aug 2014(only units over 20,000 dwt)

Deliveries 2014 1-8 Demolitions 2014 1-8

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In Jan-Aug 2014 there was a net addition of 79 Supramaxes, 96 Panamaxes/Post-Pax, 38 Capes/VLOC

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+7% +5%+12%

+19%+14%

+11%+5% +5% +6% +6%

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f)

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Projected Capesize+VLOC Bulk Fleet Growth (only units 120,000+ dwt, in mln dwt)

Capesize+VLOC Fleet Size (in mln DWT) Y-o-Y Growth

Even after accounting for reasonable slippage and cancellations, the Capesize fleet would continue to expand at 5 percent y-o-y in 2014.

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+7% +4% +5%

+13%+18% +17%

+9% +7% +5% +3%

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f)

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Projected Panamax+Post-Panamax Bulk Fleet Growth (only units 65,000-119,999 dwt, in mln dwt)

Panamax+Post-Panamax Fleet Size (in mln DWT) Y-o-Y Growth

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Even after accounting for reasonable slippage and cancellations, the Panamax fleet would continue to expand at 7 percent y-o-y in 2014.

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08/2011 02/2012 08/2012 02/2013 08/2013 02/2014 08/2014

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Dry Bulk Ordering Activity in No. of Units - Monthly(only units over 20,000 dwt)


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Thankfully, fewer newbuilding orders are being placed this year

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Final Words(Summary and Conclusions)

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COMMODITIES

Despite all the talk of slowing down, bulk commodity trade has done relatively well so far.

Coal trade is indeed suffering, but Chinese iron ore imports were actually up 17% in Jan-Aug.

There are bearish signs for iron ore in Q4, as steel output growth remains weak.

However coal could actually be due for a rebound soon.

DRY BULK FLEET

Newbuilding deliveries in Jan-Aug are down 20 percent on last year

Demolitions in Jan-Aug are down 37 percent on last year

In Jan-Aug there was a net addition of 79 Supramaxes, 96 Panamaxes/Post-Pax, 38 Capes/VLOC

In 2014 the Capes fleet will grow by 5 percent, Panamaxes by 7 percent, Supras by 8 percent

Fewer orders are being placed now

But still we had 600+ Supras, 290+ Panamaxes and 300+ Capes ordered in the last 18 months

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bancosta.oriente @bancosta.com.hk

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web site : http://www.bancosta.com/

this report has been prepared by banchero costa research

for any enquiries please contact Mr. Ralph Leszczynski on +861084417325 or email [email protected]

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Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy ofany information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from.

Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness.

banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report.

1-1645 Mr Ralph Leszczynski

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