080130 Raymond James

22
2008 Growth Airline Conference Raymond James January, 2008

Transcript of 080130 Raymond James

Page 1: 080130   Raymond James

2008 Growth Airline Conference Raymond James

January, 2008

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Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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2007 was a year of many challenges

Macro Economy

Airline Industry

Airlines Brazil

TAM

High volatility (e.g. subprime crisis)

Fuel prices Scarcity of aircraft, seats, etc due to

overall growth in the sector Conclusion of the “Varig” questionmark Changes in the governing structure of

the industry Collapse of BRA

Impact of infrastructure on operations Accident

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We have continued to be the leading domestic carrier

14.4

20.3

42.4

20.7

8.5

14.5

40.3

30.6

13.5

38.9

11.7

34.6

12.2

33.6

19.4

33.0

8.8

31.1

22.3

35.8

25.5

25.9

41.3

10.3

34.0

47.8

39.6

48.9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

20

40

60

80

100%

Domestic Market Share (RPKs)

TAMGOLVARIGVASPTRANSBRASILBRAOther

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Previousperiod

Currentperiod

J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND80859095

100105110115120125130

Domestic Market - Variation

Previousperiod

Currentperiod

J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND80859095

100105110115120125130

Domestic Market - Variation

Source: ANAC

Accum. market growth 2006

12%

The domestic market growth reached 12% in the year accumulated

Accum. market growth 2005

19%

Accum. market growth 2004

12%

Accum. market growth 2007

12%

2004

2005

2006

2007

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We have also become the leading Brazilian carrier in the international market

75.0

7.4

82.1

13.9

87.4

12.5

87.9

12.0

85.4

14.5

77.0

18.4

50.4

7.3

37.3

13.1

14.2

67.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

20

40

60

80

100%

International Market Share (RPKs)

TAMGOLVARIGVASPTRANSBRASILOther

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Previousperiod

Market

TAM

J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J F MAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND406080

100120140160180

200

International Market - Variation(vs previous year)

Source: ANAC

The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recuperating

Accum. Market growth 2004

8%

Accum. market growth 2005

7% Accum. market decrease 2006

30%

Accum. market decrease 2007

5%

Acum TAM 200641%

Acum TAM 2007 71%

Acum TAM 200540%

Acum. TAM 200430%

2004

2007

2005

2006

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53.3%

46.7%

53.8%

46.2%

71.5%

28.5%

65.0%

35.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007*0

20

40

60

80

100%

% International traffic

Braziliancarriers

Intlcarriers

The growth potential for Brazilian carriers is higher due to the unbalance in the bilateral agreements

* estimates

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We are strengthening our product in the international market through fleet and network... Increased widebody fleet plan for the next 10 years,

substituting older aircraft 2 A340s (delivered in 2007) 8 B777-300ERs (4 in 2008, 4 in 2012) 22 A350s (as of 2013) New A330 reducing fleet average age Complete phase-out of F100 (impact on intra South American

routes)

Expansion of network through additional destinations and frequencies

New full code share agreements at each major country Focus on South American coverage – integration of TAM

Mercosur activities

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21%

79%

33%

67%

34%

66%

34%

66%

3Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q070

20

40

60

80

100%

Revenues(Passenger + Cargo)

DomesticInternational

% ASK Int% ASK Dom

Dollarexchangerate

27%73%

R$2.174

33%67%

R$2.050

37%63%

R$1.926

37%63%

R$1.839

The international operations works as a natural hedge

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

Revenues originated in the

international operations are

expected to reach 45% - 50% in the next 12 months

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As Brazil becomes “stable”, the leisure segment will become increasingly more important

Leisu

reBu

sines

s

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

17.9

26.6 27.0 25.228.2

35.439.7

44.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Domestic Market Passenger Mix (RPK M)

CAGR

11%

22%

Travelling is one of the top “desire” items for consumption

* TAM Estimates

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We will be expanding our fare bundle strategy for the domestic market in 2008... Addition of extra

features in the segmented bundles

Ability to “sell up” categories Potential for

further revenue increase

Harmonization of the fare bundle strategy to TAM Fidelidade growth

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...increasing capillarity of sales through our new methods of payments... Launched new methods of payment in May 2007

Payment at lottery stores Approximately 9,000 stores in Brazil Already functioning as bank correspondent

Billing slips Automatic debit Financing for passengers via direct consumer credit with

the main retail banks

Focus on leisure/lower income segments

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...optimizing the utilization of our aircraft on off peak hours

* Average day in October, 2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2350

55

60

65

70

75

80%

Domestic load factor per hour

Off Peak Off Peak Off PeakPeakPeak

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TAM had its origin as a regional carrier…

TAMPremium / Business

Commodity / Leisure

Reg

iona

lInternational

TAM’s Origin

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… until 1998, was focused in domestic transportation of business passengers…

TAMPremium / Business

Commodity / Leisure

Reg

iona

lInternational

TAM up to 1998

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… and now, it serves a full spectrum of passengers under one brand

TAMPremium / Business

Commodity / Leisure

Reg

iona

lInternational

First class

Business class

Economy class

Commercial

agreements

with

regional

carriers

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We are beginning to evaluate new potential business units in the company

TAM Linhas Aéreas

MRO(São Carlos)

Loyalty Program HandlingCargo

Already structured as a business unit with focus in maximizing assets

None or little focus on selling services to third-parties

Not structured as business units

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Average domestic market share above 50%

Average domestic load factor at approximately 70%

Aircraft utilization per day (block hour) higher than 13 hours

Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy

Opportunity in the international marketThird frequency to ParisInauguration of two new international

long haul frequencies

Market demand growth from 10% to 15% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2007

TAM

Market

We continue with our 2007 guidance, disclosed Dec 2006, demonstrating our commitment to investors

11.9%

2007

• Since January• Milan, Frankfurt

and Madrid

48.9%70.5%

12.8*

8.5%*

* Jan – Sep Accumulated

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3

14

88

4

418

101

420

104

422

110

424

113

8

24

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

109123 128

136 141 147

0

50

100

150

Total Fleet

Our growth plan is supported by a flexible fleet plan

B777 MD11 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-body F100

TAM will be

monofleet in the

domestic operations by 1Q08

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Maintain the leadership in both domestic and international markets

ASK growth of Domestic 14% International 40%

Average load factor at approximately 70% overall Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoyThree additional international destinations or frequencies in

2008

Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2008

TAM

Market

We have a positive outlook for 2008

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2008 Growth Airline Conference Raymond James

January, 2008