07 July 18 April th 2019 -2020 · 2020. 4. 7. · audusd 0.6120 0.56 neutral nzdusd 0.5961 0.52...

July 18th 201907th April-2020

TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT

10:00 AM AUD

RBA INTEREST

RATE DECISION

(APR)

0.25% 0.25% -NEGATIVE

FOR AUD

11:15 AM CHF

UNEMPLOYMENT

RATE N.S.A.

(MAR)

2.8% 2.5% -NEGATIVE

FOR CHF

01:00 PM GBP

HALIFAX HOUSE

PRICE INDEX

(MOM) (MAR)

0.1% 0.3% -NEGATIVE

FOR GBP

07:30 PM USDJOLTS JOB

OPENINGS (FEB)6.600M 6.963M -

NEGATIVE

FOR USD

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

SNAPSHOT

SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND

AUDUSD 0.6120 0.56 NEUTRAL

NZDUSD 0.5961 0.52 STRONG

EURUSD 1.0808 0.16 NEUTRAL

GBPUSD 1.2252 0.19 NEUTRAL

USDJPY 108.8 -0.28 WEAK

USDCAD 1.4094 -0.11 WEAK

USDCHF 0.9775 -0.11 NEUTRAL

DXY 100.65 -0.10 NEUTRAL

GOLD 1,660.90 -0.12 STRONG

SILVER 15.252 1.73 STRONG

CRUDEOIL 26.92 3.22 STRONG

MARKET BYTES:

• ASIAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAYAsian benchmark indices closed weak on Friday. At close, the ShanghaiComposite finished 17 points or 0.6% lower at 2,764. Equity markets inChina were closed on Monday for a holiday.

• AUSTRALIA’S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: AUSTRALIA ANZ SURVEY OFJOB ADVERTISEMENTS FOR MARCH PLUNGED

Australia's job advertisements in newspapers and on the internetslumped 10.3% to 142,504 in March 2020, compared with marketestimates of a 2.9% drop and after an upwardly revised 1.2% gain in theprior month, which was the steepest fall since January 2009 due tosocial distancing and lockdown measure to fight against the COVID-19.

ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MSCI

OUR VIEW

MSCI has given a breakout of primary trend line placed on hourly scale. The index has extended its gains after breaching the psychological resistance of 300 levels and marching towards its potential resistance that is placed at 334.90 levels. RSI is trading at 67.39 levels showing no signs of divergence and overbought.

AUDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

AUD/USD has given a breakout of ‘Falling Channel’ formed on hourly scale that signalsfor a bullish reversal after a negative consolidated move. The pair is holding its 50-hoursExponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 65.88 levels and hinting for more upside.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:

AUDUSDThe Aussie pair is seesawed on weak economic data and decline in number ofCoronavirus cases in US. Australia's trade surplus decreased to AUD 4.36 billion inJanuary 2020 from a downwardly revised AUD 4.75 billion in the previous month butbetter than compared with market consensus of AUD 3.65 billion and jobadvertisements plunged 10.3% compared with market estimates of a 2.9% drop and1.2% gain in the prior month.STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 0.6110 0.6163 0.6207 0.6075

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

AUDUSD 0.5980 0.5700 0.6310 0.6544

0.

NZDUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:NZD/USD has been bounced back after tagging 38.2% retracement that was placed at0.5841 levels as per Fibonacci analysis on hourly scale. The pair has breached 50-hoursExponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 65.39 levels showing no signs ofdivergence and overbought.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY SELL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY SELL SELL


FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :NZDUSDThe kiwi is getting strength after news headlines comes from neighbor countries thatCOVID-19 death rate is noticeably slowing. On the macro front, New Zealand businessconfidence dropped sharply in the March quarter due to decrease in demands led bythe Coronavirus outbreak.

STRATEGY


BUY 0.5970 0.6030 0.6078 0.5920


NZDUSD 0.5740 0.5470 0.6160 0.6340

EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKET POSTED GAINS AT THE ENDEuropean equities market closed in positive territory on Monday onslowdown of death rates in European countries led by COVID-19. Atclose, the CAC 40 soared 192 points, or 4.6% to 4,346, the FTSE 100 wasup 3.1% to finish at 5,582, the IBEX 35 surged 263 points, or 4% to6,844, the FTSE MIB added 655 points or 4% to 17,039 and the DAX 30closing 5.8% higher at 10,075, the largest daily gain in two weeks.

• PM BORIS JOHNSON SHIFTED TO INTENSIVE CARE UNIT AFTERSYMPTOMS GOT 'WORSENED'According to UK government officials, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnsonwas moved to an intensive care unit on Monday after his condition withcoronavirus symptoms “worsened”.

EURUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EUR/USD has witnessed some buying pressure after the successful re-test of previouslow that was placed at 1.0772 levels on hourly scale. The pair is likely to remain ontenterhooks as it is trading below 50-hours Exponential Moving Average.


RSI BUY NEUTRAL SELL SELL

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

10 SMA BUY BUY SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY SELL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair is consolidating after last week’s weak US jobs data. Meanwhile,market sentiments get supported from news that the number of new deaths fell in Italyand Spain, the two European countries who were hit worst, as well as in Germany andFrance. Later the day, US JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) data will be in spotlight.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.0820 1.0887 1.0935 1.0772


EURUSD 1.0642 1.0490 1.1150 1.1240

GBPUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a classic ‘Marubozu’ candle stick pattern that often signalscontinuation of downtrend. RSI is closed at 65.82 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold situation. DMI’s have been converged for continuation of upside.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBPUSD pair is in positive territory as Brexit hopes continue to underpin the demandfor pound against the greenback. However, there is no economic event in bothcountries today.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2512 1.2545 1.2578 1.2486


GBPUSD 1.2300 1.2270 1.2380 1.2400

GBPUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :A back and forth moves is likely to persist in cable as it has witnessed a movement in anarrow range of 1.2183-1.2487 levels on hourly scale. RSI is trading in a range of 40-60levels. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a lackluster move.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY SELL NEUTRAL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL


FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDThe pound is looking under pressure today after British Prime Minister Boris Johnsonwas moved to intensive care as his condition worsened during his hospitalization. While,US will release its JOLTs Job Openings (Feb), which is likely to decline to 6.600M from6.963M in the previous month.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2190 1.2282 1.2376 1.2140


GBPUSD 1.2000 1.1640 1.2777 1.3200

MARKET BYTES:

• US EQUITY FINISHED MIXED ON FRIDAYU.S equity ended mixed on Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closedmarginally lower at 0.1% and 0.2% or 2 and 18 points respectively whileDow Jones was marginally higher at 0.1% or 37 points as US retail salesbeat market expectations in August led by increase in consumption ofauto sector and online shopping platform stimulate the economicgrowth.

• TRUMP URGE TO GM AS UAW (UNITED AUTO WORKERS) CALLSFOR STRIKE SINCE 2007

On Sunday, President Trump said to avoid the strike around 48,000workers, the UAW and General Motors to come together to negotiateand “make a deal”. The strike is to improve wages, reopen idled plants,add jobs at others and close or narrow the difference between pay ratesfor new hires and veteran workers of UAW while General Motors wantsits employees to pay a standard remuneration of their health careexpenses, and to increase productive work-force in their work place.

US ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• U.S EQUITY MARKET CLOSED IN GREENU.S equity market finished in positive territory on Monday after declininggrowth rates of US Coronavirus cases. On Monday, total new cases were28,200, well below 32,100 cases recorded on Friday and 33,260 cases onSaturday. At close, the final numbers were: the Dow Jones surged 1628points or 7.7% to 22,680, the S&P 500 soared 175 points or 7% to 2,664and the NASDAQ jumped 540 points or 7.3% to 7,913.

• US PRESIDENT TRUMP REACHED TO AN AGREEMENT WITH 3M TOMAKE MASKSOn Monday, President Donald Trump said that 3M would produce around166 million masks over the next three months. Meanwhile, Trumpadministrator calling it, a “very amicable agreement.” Further he added,“The 3M saga ends very happily, we're very proud now to be dealing with3M.” However, the deal includes continuation of export of N95 protectivemasks to Canada and Latin Americans amid the Coronavirus pandemic.

DOLLAR INDEX

OUR VIEW:The DXY has formed a ‘Doji Star’ candlestick pattern on daily scale that signals for indecisiveness in the sentiments of market participants. A slippage below 100.50 levels will trigger the formation of ‘Doji Star’ candlestick pattern that will activate more sellers and drag the index to lower levels.

OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

USDJPY TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/JPY has given a breakout of ‘Rising Channel’ formed on hourly scale that signals fora bearish reversal after a positive consolidated move. RSI is slipped below the horizontalsupport line placed. The pair is expected to witness weakness after slipping below 50-hours Exponential Moving Average.


RSI SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

BOLLINGER BAND SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:USDJPYUSD/JPY pair is in bearish momentum despite weak Japan’s economic activity. Japan'shousehold spending fell 0.3% in February, from a 3.9% fall in the previous month andcompared to expectations of a 3.9% drop. Later the day, Japan will publish earnings andspending figures, and the preliminary estimate of the February Leading Economic Index,foreseen at 90.4 from 90.5 in the previous month.STRATEGY


SELL 108.80 108.21 107.83 109.32


USDJPY 106.92 104.60 111.70 112.25

USDCAD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CAD is on the verge of giving a breakout below the ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ formed onhourly scale that signals for expansion in standard deviation after a slippage. RSI is tradingat 40.75 levels but expected to witness weakness after slipping below 40 levels.


RSI SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

SENTIMETER SELL SELL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCADThe Canadian dollar is looking strong today against the dollar ahead of US JOLTs JobOpenings (Feb) foreseen at 6.600M from 6.939M in the previous month. Further, traderswill remain cautious over delay in OPEC+ group meeting that was scheduled today butdelayed until April 9.

STRATEGY


SELL 1.4083 1.4030 1.3995 1.4125


USDCAD 1.3922 1.3710 1.4350 1.4560

USDCHF TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CHF is witnessing a shortening of ‘Thrust’ on hourly scale, which signals for anexhaustion in the uptrend. RSI has shifted its range from 60-80 to 40-60 levels.Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a lackluster move.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCHFUSD/CHF pair is in consolidation phase ahead of Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate s.a.(Mar), which is likely to increase to 2.8% from 2.3% in the prior. While, US JOLTs JobOpenings (Feb) is likely to print depressing numbers.

STRATEGY


SELL 0.9750 0.9690 0.9650 0.9797


USDCHF 0.9500 0.9394 0.9904 1.0027

GOLD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAU/USD has given a breakout of primary trend line placed. The precious metal ismarching towards its potential resistance that is placed at 1,703.68 levels. The counter isholding its 50-hours Exponential Moving Average.

STRATEGY


BUY 1675.28 1703.60 1720.20 1654.60


GOLD 1626.30 1570.55 1752.90 1790.75

SILVER TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAG/USD has given a breakout of ‘Darvas Box’ on hourly scale that signals for expansionin standard deviation after a slippage. The counter has breached 50-hours ExponentialMoving Average. RSI is trading at 77.82 levels showing no signs of divergence andoverbought.

STRATEGY


BUY 14.700 15.000 15.326 14.557

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

SILVER 13.786 13.190 15.887 16.590

CRUDEOIL TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:Crude Oil WTI futures is forming a ‘Cup and Holder’ pattern on hourly scale that signalsfor continuation of bullish momentum and possesses high reliability. RSI is trading at53.08 levels but expected to expand after breaching 60 levels. Stochastic oscillator iscontinued with bullish crossover.

STRATEGY


BUY 27.37 28.57 30.65 26.23

SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

CRUDE OIL 21.80 19.26 34.15 36.72

07 July 18 April th 2019 -2020 · 2020. 4. 7. · audusd 0.6120 0.56 neutral nzdusd 0.5961 0.52...

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Transcript of 07 July 18 April th 2019 -2020 · 2020. 4. 7. · audusd 0.6120 0.56 neutral nzdusd 0.5961 0.52...