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06 Dec 2006WMO CIMO TECO-2006 An Historical View of Adaptive Observing Strategies in Australia WMO...
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06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
An Historical View of Adaptive Observing Strategies in Australia
WMO CIMOTECO-2006
Russell Stringer
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
An Historical View of Adaptive Observing Strategies in Australia
Introduction
Adaptive Surface Observations
Adaptive Upper Air Observations
Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations
Some events: Tropical Cyclone; upper level trough
Conclusion
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Introduction
An adaptive observing strategy:
o Implements variations to a routine programme of observations;
o Based on meteorological conditions or other contingencies;
o May target additional observations in situations of high expected value;
o May tolerate reduced observations in situations of low expected value….
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Introduction – Australian contextUpper Air stations.
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Surface Observations
Tropical Cyclone “Emergency Reporting Network” (ERN)
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Surface Observations
Storm Spotters network:
o Concentrated over eastern and southern parts of Australia
• Greatest population
• Greatest impact of severe TS;
o Volunteers are provided with training material and other references;
o Reports are made when the weather requires it
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Surface Observations
Australian Volunteer Observing Fleet (AVOF)
“REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.”
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Surface Observations
Automatic Weather Station (AWS) observations: configuration flexibility enables adaptable operations:
o Message format choices;
o Frequency of generating each required message type;
o Frequency of storage;• Data stored in the AWS logger, may be reconfigured to higher
storage rates during significant events;
o Frequency of transmission;• This is the most commonly adjusted item, including seasonal
changes and event based adjustments;
o Remote interrogation, polling for data.
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Surface Observations Portable AWS
o Flexible in space as well as time
o Ability to register location in station dictionary => data into applications
o “Fire weather trailer” joint project
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Upper Air Observations 50 Australian Upper air stations have a mix of technology and
observing programs:o 31 track balloons by Radar;
• 7 use two radiosondes per day (00 and 12 UTC) and report wind-only data at 06 and 18 UTC.
• 14 use one radiosonde per day (00 UTC) and report wind-only data at other times, mostly 06 and 12 UTC.
• 10 never use radiosondes, reporting wind only.
o 17 track balloons by GPS;• 13 Vaisala™ Autosonde© stations;
• 4 manual balloon release.
o 2 operate only a BLP
Hence a mix of cost/opportunity for
adaptive flights (wind only, radiosonde)
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Upper Air Observations
Two developments in the upper air network led to the introduction of a systematic program of adaptive radiosonde flights:
o mid 1990’s: progressive introduction of 12 (now 13) Autosonde units => loss of 06/18 UTC wind only flights
o January 2005: reduction in overall usage of radiosondes => implemented as a substantial reduction in 12 UTC program across the network
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Upper Air Observations
Adaptive radiosondes flown per month at Australian upper air stations 2001-2006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec-0
1
Feb-0
2
Apr-0
2
Jun-
02
Aug-0
2
Oct-0
2
Dec-0
2
Feb-0
3
Apr-0
3
Jun-
03
Aug-0
3
Oct-0
3
Dec-0
3
Feb-0
4
Apr-0
4
Jun-
04
Aug-0
4
Oct-0
4
Dec-0
4
Feb-0
5
Apr-0
5
Jun-
05
Aug-0
5
Oct-0
5
Dec-0
5
Feb-0
6
Apr-0
6
Jun-
06
Aug-0
6
numberflown
numberallocated
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Upper Air Observations
A tropical cyclone is developing off the coast. Do we need more flights
to monitor it?
Instruction to Observing Office to perform additional flight
yes
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Upper Air Observations
Number of adaptive radiosondes, Jan 05 to Sep 06, by attributed category
020406080
100120140160180200
tropic
al cy
clone
signi
fican
t/sev
ere
weath
er
uppe
r lev
el tr
ough
fire
weath
erfro
nt
mon
soon
trou
gh
east
coas
t low
Antar
ctic
sum
mer
flying
ope
ratio
ns
test
ing, t
rain
ing
relat
ed
repa
ir, m
ainte
nance
rela
ted
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Upper Air Observations
Other adaptive approaches to upper air obs:
o Portable balloon launch and tracking facility
o Aircraft-based approaches• Cold Fronts Reconnaissance
program, 1991-93
• Aerosonde
• AMDAR
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations Weather surveillance by radar was
originally a manual task for on-site observing staff:
o Performed PPI and RHI scans to compose a RAREP:
• Text message describing areas of low, medium, high reflectivity and height of significant cloud tops;
o later a hand drawn map was faxed to the forecasting office;
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observationso The level of weather surveillance by radar was
inherently adaptive to the prevailing weather, and supported intensive applications such as:
• Aerodrome terminal area thunderstorm service;
• Terminal area severe turbulence nowcasting;
• Cyclone tracking;
Replaced by PC in forecast office providing dialup access to digital data, data display and manipulation:
o Forecaster could decide and implement more/less frequent dialup during active/inactive weather;
o Tension with cost of communication services.
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations Now there is little control of the radar by a forecaster.
A volumetric scan every 10 minutes provides data for the forecaster to view/manipulate on their workstation;
A few radars still provide only composite-PPI images, then switch to volumetric mode during active weather;
The days of adaptive strategies are giving way to consistency and standardisation:
o For community access to stable 10-minute images;
o For automatic and quantitative applications (rainfall estimation, cell tracking, severe thunderstorm feature detection, …….).
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Adaptive Radar, Satellite Observations The Australian Bureau of Meteorology
has gained enormous benefit for many years from access to data from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and more recently the MTSAT.
During the 1980’s the standard frequency of provision of satellite images was 3-hourly. However an arrangement was in place allowing provision of hourly images during emergencies, for limited durations. The situation most likely to trigger this provision was a tropical cyclone.
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Tropical Cyclone events
Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica – April 2006
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Tropical Cyclone events
Source: MTSAT of JMA
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Tropical Cyclone events
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Tropical Cyclone events
TC Monica – Network coverage
Regular surface network (pink, green dots)
Upper air stations (red)
Radar coverage (faint yellow)
A technician was flown to Gove station for radar etc systems support
49 extra radiosondes, many extra wind-only flights
North coast AWS frequency
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid – March 2005
o Similar track to Monica
o Observer and technician sent to Gove observing office
o ERN activated (3 regular observers, 2 additional observers)
o AWS frequency increased (to half hourly)
o MV Warrender (freight barge) sent 38 invaluable hourly obs while en route to, and at, Raragala Island where it sought refuge from the cylone – and reported 90 knot winds
Tropical Cyclone events
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
•
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
•
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Conclusion
The ability to operate and gain advantages from adaptive observing strategies relies on:
o Ability to implement variations to the routine program:
• Temporal variations – incremental cost/effort
• Spatial variations – specialised mobile capability (hazard/value at risk)
• Manual program – location, safety, training
• Automatic program – design, configuration
• Cost of communications – routinely a significant factor
o Ability to decide on variations:• Senior Meteorologist: best “situational awareness” of value/capability
• enabling framework: policy, preparations, resources, flexibility/control
• Future: objective guidance for maximum impact on NWP system?
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Conclusion
A significant weather situation is developing …..
Do we need more radiosonde flights to monitor
it? Instruction to Observing Office to perform additional flight
yes
What NWP impact?
06 Dec 2006 WMO CIMO TECO-2006
Thank you….
Questions?