05 Turchin, Korotayev
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Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration * Peter Turchin University of Connecticut Andrey V. Korotayev Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow ABSTRACT The hyp othesi s tha t popul ation pre ssu re causes increa sed warfare has been recently criticized on the empirical grounds. Both studies focusing on specific historical societies and analyses of cro ss- cultural dat a fail to fin d posit ive correl at ion be tween population density and incidence of warfare. In this paper we arg ue tha t suc h ne gat ive resu lts do not falsi fy the pop ula tion- warf are hypothesis. Populatio n an d warf are are dynamical variables, and if their interaction causes sustained oscillations, then we do not in general expect to find strong correlation between the two variables measured at the same time (that is, unlagged). We ex pl ore ma thematic al ly wh at th e dy na mi ca l pa tt er ns of interaction between population and warfare (focusing on internal warfare) might be in both stateless and state societies. Next, we test the model predictions in several empirical case studies: early modern England, Han and Tang China, and the Roman Empire. Our empirical results support the population-warfare theory: we find that there is a tendency for population numbers and internal warfare intensity to oscillate with the same period but shifted in p hase (w it h war fa re pea ks fo ll owi ng popu la tion pea ks ). Fu rthermore , the rat es of cha nge of the two varia ble s beh ave precisely as predicted by the theory: population rate of change is neg atively af fec ted by war far e int ensity , while war far e rat e of cha nge is posit ive ly af fec ted by popul ation den sit yKe y wor ds: Social Evolution & His tory, Vol. 5 No. 2, September 2006 112–147 ©2006 ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House 112
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