Resilience Topic Working Group

Line Gordon,Stockholm Resilience Centre

Basin Leader MeetingBasin Leader MeetingVientiane, Laos, 18. Jan. 2011

Resilience Topic Working Group

1. What is a resilience perspective?2 E l f ili h 2. Examples of resilience research

(mainly from CPWF 1)3. How can the group work?3. How can the group work?4. Questions for discussion

Landslides in Brazil, Flooding in Queensland

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Flooding in Queensland

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Foley et al. 2005

ChangingChanging preconditions

in thein the Anthropocene

• Rapid environmental• Rapid environmental change

• Altered and newAltered and new disturbance regimes

• How to ensure capacity to cope, adapt and transform?

Steffen et al. 2004

Regime shifts / Tipping points / Critical transitions Critical transitions

Regime shifts are:

Suprising, sudden shifts of stability domains/development trajectories

Once a threshold is crossed it is difficult to go back(assymetry and/or hysteresis)

Management practices will need to adapt, or try to transformy

Resilience deals with the tension between persistence and

change c a ge

Resilience is the capacity of a system—be it an individual, a forest, y , ,a city, or an economy — to deal with change and continue to developRather than stability, change is seen as the underlying

variable, uncertainty (disturbances/shocks) inherent to

systems

Sven-Göran “Svennis” Eriksson (Swedish successful soccer coach): “It is a wrong strategy not ( ) g gy

to change a winning team”

Resilience is about:

a) withstanding shocks and disturbances (like climate change or financial crisis), and b) using such events to catalyze renewal novelty andb) using such events to catalyze renewal, novelty, and innovation

The challenge in a nutshell:How far can a system be perturbed before a regime shift y p ghappens?

How much shock can a system absorb before it transformsHow much shock can a system absorb before it transforms into something fundamentally different?

How can active transformations from an undesirable social-ecological state into a better one be orchestrated?

(Folke 2010, Seeds magazine)

Three premises underpinning resilience perspective:

1) Humans and nature are strongly coupled and coevolving1) Humans and nature are strongly coupled and coevolving, and should therefore be conceived of as one “social-ecological” system.

2) Social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems (e.g. highly unpredictable, self-organizing)

3) Cross scale and dynamic interactions represent new challenges for governance and managementchallenges for governance and management

Feedback theory - practice - theory“Despite recent interest in resilience, there is still little empirical evidence to demonstrate how resilience may be enhanced by agriculture investments” (Walker et al 2010)agriculture investments (Walker et al. 2010)

CPWF uniquely suited to contribute to improved resilience hi ki i l ib ili h (thinking in several areas - can contribute to resilience theory (not only practice) in e.g. these fields

Understanding of resilience for development/poverty alleviation• Understanding of resilience for development/poverty alleviation

• Understanding of resilience in human-dominated landscapes

• Global international network of local in-depth site-specific knowledge/understanding/wisdom

I th i t l f th d ti ( h f• Improve the interplay of theory and practice - (research for development).

Potential core themes of a TWG on Resilience

1. Linked social-ecological systems and the role of ecosystem services trade offs and synergiesecosystem services trade-offs and synergies

2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping, adapting and transforming)

3. The role of disturbances and shocks for innovation 3 e o e o d stu ba ces a d s oc s o o at oand persistence

4 Operationalising adaptive management in4. Operationalising adaptive management in development context

1. Linked social-ecological systems and the role of ecosystem services trade offs and synergiesof ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies

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Conceptual overview of wetland sub-systems, PN 30

a) Can management of reg lating ser ices help b ild resilience ofa) Can management of regulating services help build resilience of provisioning services?

b) Empirical link between poverty and ecosystem services (Poorerb) Empirical link between poverty and ecosystem services (Poorer households resilience often more directly dependent on ES’s) - how does this dependence change in times of crises?

2. Regime shifts and the tension of persistence and development (coping adapting and transforming)development (coping, adapting and transforming)

Resilient Non resilientResilientNon resilient

From A. Vidal

Synthetic analysis and concetualisation of resilience along a blue to green continuum g g

Example from Paa Boong Paa Thaam Multiple use systems

IWRM in Southern Africa

vity

IWRM in water scarce Southern Africa

vity

vity

Wetlands in the Mekong basin

Prod

ucti

Prod

ucti

Prod

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Green water Blue waterGreen water Blue water

Vidal, van Koppen, Love & Blake, 2010Green water Blue water

Review of CPWF adaptations and t f ti transformation cases

Re greening the Uganda Re-greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor”

Restoring river flows, quality and ecosystem services in the Andes

Restoring the sustainability of the Mekong Delta agro-ecosystem

16 Vidal, Mpairwe, Peden, Quintero, Tuong 2010

Lessons learnt on adaptability and transformability

Degraded food producing systems are often locked in resilient (poverty) traps

Institutional and technical innovations mostly enable adaptation (transformation seems to require more time and dramatic changes)dramatic changes)

Long-term efforts required to strengthen the resilience of st e gt e t e es e ce odesired states

17 Vidal, Mpairwe, Peden, Quintero, Tuong 2010

What does resilience mean f bi i b i ?for big river basins?

Suggested basin closure as a potential threshold for regimepotential threshold for regime shifts

Conceptual model of basin interactions

Cummings et al, in pressBasin resilience risk being undermined by

conventional development

4. Operationalising adaptive management in a development contextdevelopment context

Example from small-scale

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fisheries on participative ways of scoping the baseline for adaptive managementadaptive management

Q i kTi ™ d

Integrated assessment map

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Identification of potential socially defined thresholds Bene et al. PN 72 project report

WORKPLAN OF THE RESILIENCE TWG

1) D l t f iti1) Development of a position paperLink theoretical approaches in resilience thinking to case studies in the challenge program.

2) TWG establishment and launcha) Together with BL’s identify resilience champions in the

different challenge program basins

b) Launch the Topic Working GroupAn initial small, dynamic, creative, proactive and self-organizing groupEnsure resilience is anchored in real cases in the basinsTogether develop strategy for working w ph 2 projectsLaunch of the working group during Resilience 2011conference in Arizona (OBS!! 11-17 March)( )Connect to resilience scholars in other forums

3) Synthesis of phase 1, overview of phase 2Go through outputs from phase 1 and analyze linkages to resilience.Help with, and initiate papers that can provide synthesis e p t , a d t ate pape s t at ca p o de sy t es sand/or conceptual development that will facilitate the future research in the group.

4) ForumParticipate actively in the organization of the Forum in Nov 2011

5) Facilitation, learning and mentoring) , g gThis activity will be developed together with the TWG core group when that is established

Questions - conceptual to practicalQuestions - conceptual to practical

To bring home:• How is a resilience thinking different from other approaches

that deals with integrated/interdisciplinary issues related tothat deals with integrated/interdisciplinary issues related to sustainability, sustainable livelihoods etc?

• Is resilience always desirable? Can we specifically think about how cases in CPWF can contribute to understandingabout how cases in CPWF can contribute to understanding transformations?

To discuss:• What can a resilience approach bring to your projects? • How can your projects contribute to resilience thinking theory• How can your projects contribute to resilience thinking theory

and practice?

Questions - operationalQuestions - operational

• What projects in your basins are relevant for the• What projects in your basins are relevant for the resilience TWG?

• Who could be resilience champions in your basins?

• Do you have ideas based on your understanding of• Do you have ideas, based on your understanding of the basins, on what issues the resilience TWG could/should address?