04 June 2020 © Crown copyright 2020 Dstl · demonstration of the Intelligent Ship (IS) techniques...

© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl

04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario

OFFICIAL

Purpose of Intelligent Ship Scenario

• This scenario has been developed to provide a framework for

demonstration of the Intelligent Ship (IS) techniques and

technology that have been, and will be, developed under Phase

1 and Phase 2 of the project.

• The scenario will be refined throughout Phase 2 of the project as

and when it is understood which Agents for Decision Making

(ADeMs) will be taken forward under Phase 2 and their maturity

and readiness to be included in the Intelligent Ship AI Network

(ISAIN) environment.

OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl

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04 June 2020

Scenario Background

• Blue Force Task group (TG) brought together and tasked to

support a humanitarian disaster relief mission.

• Environment

– Heightened tension with RED opposing forces contesting passage through a

200 mile exclusion zone

– Pirates operate with RED passive endorsement

• Intelligent Ship will be tasked to undertake a detached mission

– Plan overall mission

– Specific tasking for detached mission to gather information prior to TG

passage through contested waters


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04 June 2020

Scenario Background

• IS specifically tasked to gather information in area with heightened

tension to support a disaster relief mission where pirates are known

to operate.

• Pre-Operation Planning

– Applications teamed with Humans used to provide background material

• Previous Patterns Of Life (POL)

• Experience of propagation environment

• Political Situation

• Encyclopaedic data

• Etc.


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04 June 2020

Mission Objectives

• High Level Mission Objectives

– Transit area of heightened tension

– Collect intelligence data

– Protect ship during passage

• IS Objectives

– Gather information

– Identify requirements for Replenishment at Sea (RAS)

– Monitor ship systems

– Re-plan according to current situation (systems availability,

threats etc.)


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04 June 2020

IS01 Information Gathering


A civil war has broken out in an area which is critical to maritime trade and the world economy and on quickest route to provide aid to nation impacted by national disaster. Multiple factions are known to operate in the area. UK deploys Maritime Task Group (TG) to help with disaster relief, to maintain freedom of navigation and DETER aggression against non-combatant shipping. Prior to theatre entry by the TG a singleton intelligent Ship (IS) is tasked with information gathering

Variables Detail Comments

Red Force Intent All Red factions intent on provoking withdrawal or destruction of Blue Forces in order to secure political credibility

Red decisions to escalate are predetermined, rather than dynamic

Red Force Capability Mixture of conventional & remote piloted air systems, surface units, submarine and land launched anti-ship missiles.

Both sides with similar systems;

Blue Force Intent & capability

To both provide aid to nation impacted by natural disaster and maintain freedom of navigation, DETER red aggression and DEFENDMTG and non-combatant shipping

Blue is expected to gather information, use minimum force to DEFEND, but DETER may require use of considerable force

Key events during vignette

Confusing complex and congested battlespace, with multiple non-combatants, varied platforms, and attacks on defended assetsAttacks, probes, pop-ups and land based strikes from all directions

TG will split devoting appropriate assets to disaster relief and patrolling contested sea areas

Validation Consistent with Fighting Instructions description of likely TG operations.

Similar to other scenarios used elsewhere (Ops Room Optimisation WP5; and Threat Evaluation and Weapons Assignment Ph2); 7

04 June 2020

Pre-Operation Planning

• Applications teamed with Humans used to provide

background material

– Previous Patterns Of Life

– Experience of propagation environment

– Political Situation

– Encyclopaedic data

– Etc.

• Applications teamed with Humans to develop

Courses of Action (COAs) based on mission

objectives


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04 June 2020

Int’ Ship CoreIntelligent Ship pre-op planning


AI/Human Functions

ISAIN

TACNAV

Courses of action / mission planning aides

Programme Nelson Display & track servicesCommand lab

Input Output

Mission Objectives

Courses of Action

Intel’gathering

plan

Counter detection

course

RAS activities required

Advice and options provided by Human-AI Dialogue based on compiled relevant information

Platform system AIs providing status and availability of equipment

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04 June 2020

IS01 Pre Op Planning


Intelligent

Ship

RED territory

Red Coast

Guard Corvette

MLA

Wave Tanker

Destroyer (DD)

(AAWC)

Carrier

(MEU)

Frigate

Blue territoryRed territory

Fast Jet patrol

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04 June 2020

1/ IS Op Planning

• Tactical Navigation (TacNav) system to plan

– Counter detection course to objective (METOC, Propagation info,

overhead ephemerides, surface picture, AIS, ADSB )

– line for intel gathering (Charts, AML, Surface Picture, PoL AIs)

• Platform AIs

– Status (engine status, pre-planned maintenance etc.)

– Need for fuel to complete objective

• Managing interactions between Humans and AIs

– Logs arrange RASL

• TacNav re-plan to include RAS


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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Passage through contested waters


Conduct a covert passage

Steer 105°, speed 10 kts

Mission?Avoid detection

Safe navigation

Patterns of life

Assess threat

Historical data

Power management

Minimise emissions

Signature control 12

04 June 2020

2/ Transit to task area

• Safe Passage

– AIs/Human team used to predict/avoid intercepts

• Previous patterns of life

• Experience of propagation environment

– TacNav conduct navigation

• Monitoring execution of the plan

• Requesting local updates of propagation environment to

maintain counter detection

• Using other sources to avoid detection etc.


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04 June 2020

Int’ Ship CoreIntelligent Ship – Transit


ISAIN

TACNAV

Platform system AIs providing status and availability of equipment, damage control, energy management

Battle management ADEMS set up courses of action and mission planning aides



Input Output

Mission Objectives

Courses of Action

Intel’gathering

plan

Counter detection

course


Management of AIs for overall mission objectives

Adaptive management of human machine workloads

Workload

AI/Human Functions

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04 June 2020

IS01 IS Transit


Intelligent

Ship

RED territory

Red Coast

Guard Corvette

MLA

Wave Tanker

Destroyer (DD)

(AAWC)

Carrier

(MEU)

Frigate


Fast Jet patrol

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04 June 2020

3/ On Task

• Tactical Passage Making

– TacNav conduct navigation

• Monitoring execution of the plan

• Requesting local updates of propagation environment to

maintain counter detection

• Using other sources to avoid detection etc.

– Battle Management AI’s/Human Team running to monitor

threat situation and provide options for own ship or other

assets.

• AIs/Human team used to predict/avoid intercepts

– Previous patterns of life

– Experience of propagation environment


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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship – On Task


ISAIN

TACNAV





Input Output

Mission Objectives

Courses of Action

Intel’gathering

plan

Counter detection

course




Workload

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04 June 2020

Int’ Ship Core

AI/Human Functions

IS01 IS On TaskGathers Data and Returns


Intelligent

Ship

RED territory

Red Coast

Guard Corvette

MLA

Wave Tanker

Destroyer (DD)

(AAWC)

Carrier

(MEU)

Frigate


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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Challenged by RED fast attack aircraft


Respond to challenge

Prepare to increase readiness

My ship has beendetected and

identified. Is mission still achievable?

Unidentified warship in position ***** inside RED

exclusion zone, identify yourself

Revise plan

War-game new plans

Power availability?

Weapon status

Sensor performance

Watertight integrity?

This is Blue warship patrolling international waters, exercising right of freedom of navigation

under international law

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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01RED fast attack aircraft continues warning and shows weapons


Repeat response

Situation escalating,is mission achievable,

inform command?

Increase readiness

Unidentified warship leave RED exclusion zone

immediately

War-game scenario

Ready for action

Increase power available

Bring weapons to short

notice

Increase watertight

integrity

This is BLUE warship patrolling international waters, exercising right of freedom of navigation

under international law.

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04 June 2020

IS01 Red Force


Intelligent

Ship

RED territory

Red Coast

Guard Corvette

MLA

Wave Tanker

Destroyer (DD)

(AAWC)

Carrier

(MEU)

Frigate


Fast Jet patrol

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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Illuminated by RED fast attack aircraft targeting radar


Defend ship against hostile act

Bring ship to full readiness

Clear evidence ofhostile intent

Evaluate threat

Command intent

Rules of engagement

Hard/soft kill mix

Manoeuvre

Optimum fire control

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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Civilian airliner rapidly descending towards Intelligent Ship


Challenge contact

Anomalous behaviour

Is new contacthostile?

Assess track behaviour

Sensor data

Patterns of life

Historical data

Intelligence

Unidentified aircraft, this is BLUE warship,

turn away immediately!

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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01RED fast attack aircraft launches two anti-ship missiles


Engage!

Firing solution ready

Defend ship,don’t be hit,

maintain mission

Threat assessment

Hard kill = 90%

Soft kill = 5%

Valid firing solution

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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent Ship successfully destroys one anti-ship missile


Firing solution remains valid for CIWS

Re-engage! Defend ship,don’t be hit

50% missile threat

reduction. Re-engage,

Percentage kill rate

Activate CIWS

Predict impact

Ready damage control

Manoeuvre? 25

04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent Ship CIWS hits second anti-ship missile


Defend ship,don’t be hit

Predict impact

Ready damage control

Re-configure ship

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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent Ship hit by damaged anti-ship missile


Hit by missile fragments.

Port propulsion off-line. Current threat level low.

Damage report andthreat assessment? What threat

remains, is missionstill achievable?

Detect impact

Assess damage

Assess threat

Damage control and fire

fighting priorities

Manoeuvrability

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04 June 2020

3/ Return to TG

• Damage scenario

– Damage control strategy application to provide information

about residual capability & availability timescales for restoring

capability

– Automated recovery where possible; Agent tasks damage

parties to undertake prioritised repair activities

– Command and other agents kept informed on systems

platform material state and availability


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04 June 2020

Int’ Ship CoreIntelligent Ship – Return to TG


ISAIN

TACNAV





Input Output

Mission Objectives

Courses of Action

Intel’gathering

plan

Counter detection

course




Workload

AI/Human Functions

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04 June 2020

Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent ship limps back to Task Group to make repairs


Recommend return to task group to effect repairs.

Course / speed required 220° sp 12 kts

on starboard shaft only

Mission unachievable without repair. Inform

command, negativetea and medals!

Damage assessment

Power generation

Weapon status

Sensor performance

Manoeuvrability

Logistics

Mission Analysis 30

04 June 2020

Purpose of Intelligent Ship Scenario

• This scenario has been developed to provide a framework to help

identify AI technologies and their interactions;

• It consists of multiple vignettes exercising different combinations of

ADeMs under different circumstances;

• The scenario will most likely be divided into a series of vignettes

• All parties on the project, industry MOD and RN will develop this on

jointly;

• The scenario will be refined throughout phase 2 of the project as and

when it is understood which Agents for Decision Making (ADeMs) will

be taken forward under phase 2 and their maturity and readiness to be

included in the Intelligent Ship AI Network (ISAIN) environment.


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04 June 2020

04 June 2020 © Crown copyright 2020 Dstl · demonstration of the Intelligent Ship (IS) techniques...

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Transcript of 04 June 2020 © Crown copyright 2020 Dstl · demonstration of the Intelligent Ship (IS) techniques...