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Lecture Overview

Example of qualitative risk mapping from

Rheinhessen, Germany

Example of quantitative risk mapping from

Bildudalur, Island

Example of quantitative risk mapping from Cairns,

Australia

Preliminary results from a local and regional

landslide risk approach, Swabian Alb, Germany

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Example of Rheinhessen, Germany

Regional landslide risk analysis

Qualitative approach

Key research issues:

To develop a concept for regional landslide risk

analysis adjusted to German conditions

To test this concept

To give a first approximation of landslide risk

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Scale of the study

No

No

Yes

Process-based

Analysis

Quantitative methodsQualitative methods

NoNoYesYes> 1:100,000

NoYesYesYes1:25,000

1:50,000

YesNoYesYes< 1:10,000

Neural network

analysis

Statistical

Analysis

Heuristic

AnalysisInventar

Scale

adopted from Soeters & van Westen (1996) and Aleotti & Chowdhury (1999)

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Methodology

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Study area

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Landslide near Ockenheim, Rheinhessen

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Landslide susceptibility map of Rheinhessen

Glade (2001), based on Jger (1997)

DTM 40m DTM 20m

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Elements at risk

13-15Road85-128Motorway

0.5-0.7Agric.205Spec.

10Wine205-255Ind.

0.3Bush/past.255-410Mixed

2Forest255Resid.

/m2ER/m2ER

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Damage potential

10Very high

2High

46Moderate

42Low

PercentageDamage

Potential

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Weightning Options Risk Matrix

Very high

High

Low

Very high

Very highHighModerateHigh

HighModerateModerateModerate

LowLowLowLow

HighModerateLowDamage

Hazard

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Landslide risk

0.2Very high

2High

8Moderate

90Low

PercentageLandslide

Risk

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Discussion of Rheinhessen study

Concept has the potential to be used

Based on general information, thus applicable to

other regions

Cautious establishment of Risk Matrix

Identification of hot spots

Support for local and regional authorities as a

planning tool for hazard mitigation

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Perspectives

Verification of spatial landslide hazard analysis

Vulnerability curves for each element at risk

Types of vulnerability (e.g. social, structural)

Comparing different scales (spatial & temporal)

Risk perception of various actors

Assessment of user demands

Multi-natural hazards and risk

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Examples from Bldudalur, NW-Iceland

Regional risk analysis

Quantitative approach

Multi-Hazard analysis

Debris flows

Rock falls

Snow avalanche

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Methodology

Eipe = per person (individual risk)

Epe = number of people in one object (object risk)

Ep = monetary value of object (economic risk)

16Glade (2002)

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Examples from Bldudalur, NW-Iceland

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Examples from Bldudalur, NW-Iceland

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Individual risk to life, object risk to life and economic

riskUnit

Risk type min max very low low medium high

individual risk to life

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Object risk to life

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Economic risk