01*23#$4565 - MAHB · PDF fileleadership included two of the co-authors of the present report:...
Transcript of 01*23#$4565 - MAHB · PDF fileleadership included two of the co-authors of the present report:...
Global civil society combining forces to confront the degradation of our life support systems and the interconnections among the greatest threats to human well-being…
The Must Haves for a Sustainable 2050
Mohammad Zaidi Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Officer (ret)
Alcoa
Idar Kreutzer CEO
Storebrand
Robert E. HornHuman Science and Technology Advanced Research Institute (H-STAR)
Stanford University
Paul Ehrlich Bing Professor of Population Studies
Stanford University
Introduction by Donald Kennedy
President emeritus, Stanford University
Report 2012 - 1
http://mahb.stanford.edu/
Introduction
This report describes an 18-month World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) project, Vision 2050. The vision was formed by a technique of backcasting past events, to evaluate the plausibility of reaching a reasonably sustainable world in 2050. The team comprised of 29 senior strategists representing 29 diverse companies. Its leadership included two of the co-authors of the present report: Idar Kreutzer, CEO of Storebrand, a large Norwegian financial services company. and Mohammad Zaidi, who was until the latter part of 2011, the Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Officer of Alcoa, one of the world's leading aluminum companies. They were joined by two CEOs from WBCSD member companies, Price Waterhouse Coopers and Syngenta.
The project is causing major strategic re-thinking among the 200 member companies in the World Business Council, and has generated thoughtful discussions in proceedings conducted by the United Nations, OECD, and a variety of academic institutions. That WBCSD has led the way on this project is especially significant given that its member companies have $7 trillion in annual revenues (comparison: China’s GDP at current exchange rate is $5.8 trillion).
An important focus of the Report is to call out the urgency that is being felt by WBCSD member companies, and their concern that we must bring together many elements of global society to accomplish its objectives. The Report emphasizes the challenge of bringing together government, business, and NGOs to accomplish the very difficult 40 “must-haves “ that the Report’s analysis shows to be essential if we hope to be on track to achieve a sustainable 2050. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development completed the Vision 2050 project in February of 2010. It stands as the most comprehensive set of milestones and one of the most plausible visions of the future of human civilization. The two authors of the Report, Kreutzer and Zaidi, have joined with Stanford University professor of Biological Science, Paul Ehrlich, and Bob Horn, a visiting scholar at Stanford, to go beyond the WBCSD report. Here we try to summarize the strategic implications of the work done by the Vision 2050 project. What’s especially significant about it is the clear indication that the companies in the WBSCD have achieved agreement on a new concept that represents a turning point – a way of thinking about our collective future in which business are prepared to commit themselves to be part of sustainable future. We think the identification of a critical 40 “must haves” to make that destination a real prospect is an extraordinary accomplishment. To fulfill its promise about the future, others will need to explore the clusters that represent key elements in each of those critical objectives – in short, supporting the new directions necessary for us to reach a sustainable 2050. This reminds us that we are now well into the year that marks the 20th anniversary of the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992.
The other major advance represented in this report is the way in which it brings together representatives of two major institutions in our civilization that often have been at odds with each other. Two of its authors represent the forward-looking business community; another, my colleague Paul Ehrlich, a spokesman for decades on the part of the scholarly community supporting environmental responsibility. These authors, among whom I am proud to count myself, agree that there is a singular need for diverse institutions in our civilization to do the urgent work of confronting climate change, social inertia, and the other challenges that confront the prospect of sustainability. We are pleased to make this report the first in the series that the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (MAHB) will be producing. We hope that it will inspire representatives of governments, academic institutions, non-government organizations and business communities to work together in more fruitful ways to accomplish the 40 must-haves. Don Kennedy
President emeritus , Stanford University,
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ENERGY AND POWER - Meet increasing demand while stabilizing global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius – equivalent to approx. 450 ppm CO2 in atmosphere
1- Energy R&D increases rapidly
2- Major collection of international agreements on climate and energy Not necessarily treaties, but perhaps bilateral and multilateral agreements
-3 Carbon has a price - cap & trade or carbon tax begin to transform electric power generation Maybe through a comprehensive treaty or perhaps a series of multilateral agreements
4- Carbon sequestration funded for rapid deployment
5- Distorting energy subsidies phased out and increased international cooperation in deploying low-carbon technology occurs
6.
12- Policy makers and industry partner to speed up research into and deployment of alternative drivetrains and advanced biofuels
13- Integrated rail networks spread. Infrastructure investments keep up with growing demand of passenger and freight transport
14- Sustainable biofuels for aviation are fully tested and begin to be used Governments help to ensure - Sufficient and steady biofuel supply through early incentives - Aviation is allocated necessary share of biofuel supply despite competition with other forms of transportation - Cost does not exceed petroleum-based jet fuel
15- Vehicle users adopt more efficient driving behavior, stimulated through information campaigns
16- Improved energy efficiency in shipping is achieved through holistic approaches to transport chain performance
MATERIALS - Closed-loop society
17- Global business and governments agree on a set of indicators & rules for accounting about resources, energy and materials. These rules establish the true cost of primary and secondary materials.
18- New landfill legislation begins to set standards for recycling and reuse
19- Industrial-application Carbon Capture and Storage-- Develop legal and regulatory frameworks, to include liability clarity for CO2-- R&D to reduce capture costs, determine storage integrity, monitoring-- Greater public awareness of benefits and cost
GLOBAL ECONOMY, FINANCE, & BUSINESS MODELS - Transform contemporary industrial capitalism into sustainable capitalism
20- Externalities internalized and investors incorporate rapidly new accounting standards into risk and opportunity decision-making. These accounting changes enable companies to measure both positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services
21- Global price on carbon internalizes major costs of CO2 and other emissions
22- Technology transfer for energy and some other areas such as food is successfully implemented. Collaboration between government leaders from major economies in both North and South lead to creation of a global venture capital fund to commercialize clean energy and food technologies. The fund licenses intellectual property and sells technol-ogy to countries on terms that vary according to their average per capita GDP. This is supported by concessional terms for developing countries (Or some other approach that is efficient and effective and meets same goals)
GOVERNANCE - Enable transformations in global economy and planetary sustainability by 2050
23- Major collection of international agreements on climate and energyNot necessarily treaties, but at minimum bilateral and multilateral agreements
BUILDINGS - Energy efficient and comfortable living and working spaces
7- Energy Efficiency (Buildings and Appliances) - Implementation of mandatory minimum efficiency performance standards - Revisit international standards periodically to ensue continuous improvement - No delays in legislation of strong regulations and enforcement is the most cost-effective policy Key Areas of International Collaboration: -Common standards set to discourage trade in sub efficient appliances.
MOBILITY - Low carbon
8-Development and deployment of efficient internal combustion vehicles improve new-vehicle carbon intensity up to 30-40%, enabled by better policies and introduction of Electric Vehicles (EV)/ Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)
9- Integrated urban planning, especially in the fast-growing cities, improves transport and allows for more choice among appropriate modes
10-Transportation energy efficiency:- Mandatory efficiency standards; eventually harmonized globally at highest efficiency level- Incentives for new technology other than increasing size, weight or power- Standards set for medium and heavy duty trucks (logistics, onroad
The 40 Must-Haves for this DecadeRequired to be on Track for a Sustainable 2050
Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built
During 2010-2020 (World wide)
Coal-fired with CCSGas-fired with CCSNuclearHydroBiomass plantsWind-onshoreWind-offshoreGeothermalSolar PhotovoltaicConcentrated Solar
105802050
4000050002002000300
500 mw CCS plants500 mw CCS plants1000 mw nuclear plants5000 mw dams50 mw biomass plants4 mw wind turbines4 mw wind turbines100 mw geothermal units50 mw installations250 mw installations
UnitsTotal by 2020
Approx. Milestones for staying below 2oC (average global temperature)
6
Appendix A
24- A more effective summit of the Major Economies begins to meet on a quarterly basis Discusses existing and potential global challenges including security. G8 plus outreach 5: Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Mexico plus Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or Nigeria.- PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIORS, AND DEVELOPMENT - Well on the way to meeting basic needs of all people by 2050
25- Universal primary and secondary education has begun to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels. More women are educated and engaged in economic activities, leading to improved health of women and their children
26- Reproductive choice, contraception, family planning available virtually everywhere on the planet
AGRICULTURE - Feed 9 Billion People by 2050
27- To feed 9 billion people by 2050, food, feed, fibre, and fuel output must increase two-fold, growing 2% annually without increasing the negative environmental impact and if possible not use any more land for agriculture.
28- Asian, Pacific water efficiency doubles
29- Freer trade in agricultural products, in order to maximize production of food and agricultural products on a global scale
30- Wheat production doubles. World's second biggest crop in volume and represents the greatest challenge for reversing the trend of declining yield growth. Currently rate of yield gain in wheat has been falling faster than any other crop. New technologies, especially in Eastern Europe and Africa, reverse this decline
FOREST - Sufficient timber and fuel for 9 billion people by 2050 while reducing carbon emission significantly
31- The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) releases the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) report. Without REDD, the 2 degree C climate stabilization goal will not be met
32- Commitments to deep carbon reductions by industrialized countries to create demand for REDD+ carbon credits.
33- Major actions addressed by REDD+ begin to be implemented:- Provide financial incentives to local people for conservation and expansion of ecosystem services from primary and modified natural forests.- Procedures for setting emissions levels- Methodologies for monitoring, reporting and verification- Processes to promote the participation of indigenous peoples and local communities
34- Shift production from modified natural forest to planted forest by tripling planted forest yields by 2050
ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY - Maintain and restore
36- Improved NATURAL LITERACY - Increased knowledge and attention on ecosystem services A range of in-depth and comprehensive multi-year studies have deepened our understanding of the functioning of the full range of ecosystem services. Widespread media attention of such studies has contributed to a greater focus on the protection and enhance-ment of ecosystem services.
37- Donor countries increase the investment in rural communities in and around protected areas to grow their economic base and reward biodiver-sity protection. This provides the kind of protection that the market can not provide alone
38- Business, NGOs, governments agree on ecosystem valuation methods including valuing the global commons (e.g. eco-services of oceans, forests, atmosphere, etc.
39-Seed banks and botanical gardens all over the world work closely together to preserve most of today's biodiversity
40-Fair pricing of ecosystem services
35-
The 40 Must-Haves for this DecadeRequired to be on Track for a Sustainable 2050
MacroVU® AnalyticsRobert E. Horn
Planted forest carbon stock
Primary forest carbon stock
Natural forest carbon stock
30 Gt
147 Gt
203 Gt
25%
4%
10%
Increaseover 2010
Totalcarbonstock
Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests
Approx. Milestones - 2020 35
International governance begins to shift from treaties to cooperative issue networks and more frequent trust-building summits and mini-summitsRepresentatives from governments,
NGOs, UN and business collaborate on
issues
GOVERNANCE - Enable transformations in global economy
Global
Issues
Networks
Growing awareness of need to cooperate Big risk
Internationalterrorismnetworksincrease
Big risk
Massive rise of
international
drug and crime
organizations
PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT - Eco-aware consumers lead selection of products, services, and leisure activities based on efficiency, ecological and social impacts, reinforcement of individual work-life balance, community needs, and global resilience
If not NOW,WHEN?
Sometime during this decade New
“people and planet” movement leaders
emerge. Many societal actors take
responsibility for deeper
“ecological-awareness education” to
encourage changes in perceptions and
behaviour by the end of the decade. New
measures of personal success beyond
financial status become more popular
PeoplePlanet
Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050
Universal primary and secondary education has begun to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels. More women are educated and engaged in economic activities, leading to improved health of women and their children
Eco-awareness spreads rapidly
AGRICULTURE - Feed 9 Billion People by 20502nd generationbiofuels hit market.Cellulosicsconverted into biofuels greatly improves fuel efficiency, frees up cropland, alleviatesfood/fuel conflict, and diminishes carbon footprint
Assumption: Better use of freshwater.Most efficient way of increasing the efficiency of water use in agriculture is through increasing yields and requires extracting the maximum yield per drop.
Increasing knowledge in agriculture continuously optimizes input efficiency. Farmersmanage the landscape, and need technical support, access to capital, access to markets and information to build capacity for higher productivity and natural resource efficiency.Wide acceptance of existing technology.
Russia & Ukraine triple wheat yield via professionalizationof farming
3x
Required to be on
track for a
sustainable 2050
Asian, Pacific waterefficiencydoubles2x
Doubling & tripling of yields
Required to be on track for a sustainable
2050 To feed 9 billion people by 2050, food, feed, fibre, and fuel output must increase two-fold, growing 2% annually without increasing the negative environmental impact and ifpossible not use any more land foragriculture. $Xsubsidies
With the successful completion of the WTO Doha round, large agricultural subsidies are discontinued boosting production in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa
Increased demand for building materials and other wood products, forest biomass for power generation and fuel drives greater production.
Planted forest carbon stock
Primary forest carbon stock
Natural forest carbon stock
24 Gt
142 Gt
185 Gt
Total carbon stock
Approx. Amount of Carbon Stock in World Forests
By the end of the decade Major actions addressed by
REDD+ begin to be implemented:
- Provide financial incentives to local people for
conservation and expansion of ecosystem
services from primary and modified natural
forests.
- Procedures for setting emissions levels
- Methodologies for monitoring, reporting and
verification
- Processes to promote the participation of
indigenous peoples and local communities
REDD+
in
Action
Carbon
storage
benefits of
wood
products
are
recognized
in carbon
markets
$
FOREST - Sufficient timber and fuel for 9 billion peopleGlobal action on deforestation
$$
ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY - Maintain and restore
This will take time, but is required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Improved NATURAL LITERACY - Increased knowledge and attention on ecosystem services A range of in-depth and comprehensive multi-year studies have deepened our understanding of the functioning of the full range of ecosystem services. Widespread media attention of such studies has contributed to a greater focus on the protection and enhancement of ecosystem services.
Natural literacy spreads
Fresh water
GreenproductsCultural
Clean air Sequestercarbon
Eco-systemServices
Source: Global Footprint Network
This is our currentsituation
0.6
1.21.00.8
1.61.4
1.8
0.20.4
2.0By the early 2020s we'll
need 2 planets. Red
line is projected
footprint beyond
biocapacity
Current overshoot
beyond
biocapacity
(approx. 40% of a
planet)
2.2
1960 20201980 2000 2040
Numb
er of planets
For the past 25 years, humans have
exceeded global biocapacity
Total amount of carbon storage in wood products
E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings,furniture, etc.
Probably necessary to
be on track to a
sustainable 2050
Commitments to
deep carbon
reductions by
industrialized
countries to
create demand
for REDD+ carbon
credits.
CO2
REDD+
Probably necessary for scenario to be "on track" for 2050 A more effective summit of the Major Economies begins to meet on a quarterly basis Discusses existing and potential global challenges including security. G8 plus outreach 5: Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Mexico plus Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or
MAJOR
ECONOMIES
MEETING
(MEM)summit meets
often
Required to be on track for a
sustainable 2050 The United
Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
releases the Reducing Emissions
from Deforestation and forest
Degradation (REDD) report.
Without REDD, the 2 degree C
climate stabilization goal will not
be met
REDD+
Required to be on track for a sustainable
2050 Major collection
of international
agreements on
climate and energyNot necessarily treaties, but at minimum bilateral and multilateral agreements
21 million tons
© 2011 WBCSD and R.E.Horn - [email protected]
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development info-mural -
Pathway to a Sustainable 2050
Appendix B
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