0 George Duggan Vice President, Domestic Intermodal May 19, 2008 BNSF Railway Moving You Forward.
Transcript of 0 George Duggan Vice President, Domestic Intermodal May 19, 2008 BNSF Railway Moving You Forward.
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George Duggan
Vice President, Domestic Intermodal
May 19, 2008
BNSF Railway
Moving You Forward
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Topics
Current Economic/Industry Environment
Providing Services That Deliver
Growing Where You’re Going
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Moving You Forward
• Economic Landscape
• Factors Impacting the Transportation Industry
Current Economic/Industry Environment
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Economic Landscape2007-2009 Outlook
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2007:Q3 2007:Q4 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4
Real GDP Less-Tech Mfg.
2007 2.2% 0.8%2008F 1.2% -1.2%2009F 1.7% 1.4%
Real GDP vs. “Less-Tech” Manufacturing Output
Source: Global Insight, BNSF Railway, April 2008
Growth, Percent Change,Year-Over-Year
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Economic LandscapeHousing Market
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, BNSF Railway, December 2007
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Q20
8
Q10
9
Q40
9
750
950
1,150
1,350
1,550
1,750
1,950
2,150
2,350
Housing Starts (RHT AXIS) Fed Funds 10-Yr T-Bill
High home inventories and falling home prices mean slump continues
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Economic Landscape
Oil
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
$3.000
$3.500
$4.000
$4.500
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08
HD
F (
$ p
er
ga
llon
)
$10.00
$30.00
$50.00
$70.00
$90.00
$110.00
$130.00
$150.00
WT
I ($
pe
r b
arr
el)
HDF and WTI
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7Source: U.S. Census Bureau, April 2008
Economic LandscapeBusiness Spending & Employment
Business Capex - Equipment & Software (%Chg y/y)
-13%
-10%
-8%
-5%
-3%
0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
13%
200
1:1
200
1:3
200
2:1
200
2:3
200
3:1
200
3:3
200
4:1
200
4:3
200
5:1
200
5:3
200
6:1
200
6:3
200
7:1
200
7:3
200
8:1
200
8:3
Source: Global Insight, BNSF Railw ay, April 2008
Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentChange from Prior Month (000)
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan
-01
Jul-
01
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Business capex is cautious; employment is down three months in a row
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Economic LandscapeConsumer Spending
Source: Global Insight, April, 2008
High commodity, credit and gas prices are squeezing spending power
Year-over-year growth
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1
Services Non-Durables Durables
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Factors Impacting the Transportation Industry Factors Impacting Your Business
GROWTHGROWTHHighway Congestion
Transpacific Trade
Driver Shortage
Fuel Efficiency
Rail Capacity
Environmental Solutions
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Factors Impacting the Transportation Industry Highway Congestion
Source: FHWA HPMS data
Highway Congestion, 2000 Highway Congestion, 2020 Prediction
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11Source: Global Insight
Factors Impacting the Transportation Industry Driver Shortage
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Drivers Needed Driver Supply Trend (optimistic) Projected Driver Supply
Millions
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Shanghai
Source: ProLogis
Seattle/ Tacoma
Oakland
LA/ Long Beach
Houston
Dallas
Savannah
Charleston
Norfolk
New YorkChicago
Lazaro Cardenas
5
5
5 8
5
6
25
26
13
Vancouver
Prince Rupert
12
19
Atlanta
8
25
Toronto
7
6
Memphis
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Factors Impacting the Transportation Industry Trans Pacific Trade
Continuing to Favor West Coast Ports
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Moving You Forward
• Intermodal Services
• Environmental Solutions
Providing Services That Deliver
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Competitive Service AlternativesBNSF Intermodal Services
Ideal for time-sensitive freight moving more than 1,000 miles
Seamlessly integrates road, rail and water transportation for truckload quantities
Works best in markets with large concentrated volumes - inefficient in lower-volume markets
Service is equivalent to or better than single-driver truck, averaging 400-700+ miles per day
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Competitive Service AlternativesBest Value for Your Transportation Dollar
LONG-HAUL MODE TEAM DRIVERS
(HIGHWAY)
SINGLE DRIVERS
(HIGHWAY)
BNSF EXPEDITED
(INTERMODAL)
BNSF PREMIUM
(INTERMODAL)
Freight Costs $$$$ $$$ $$ $
Fuel Surcharges $$ $$ $ $
Total $$$$$$ $$$$$ Value Max Savings
METRO DOOR TO DOOR TRANSIT TIME (IN DAYS)
Southern California – Chicago 3 4 4** 5.5
Southern California – Kansas City
3 4 4** 5.5
Southern California – Memphis 3 4 4** 6
Southern California – Atlanta 3 4 Not Available 5.5
Southern California – DFW 2 3 3.5* 5
Seattle - Chicago 3 4 4* 5.5
(Lowest total emissions)
Economies of Intermodal Rail
*Expedited Container and Trailer Lane **Expedited Trailer Lane Only
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Environmental SolutionsImproving Fuel Efficiency
2 – 4 times more fuel efficient than trucks on a ton-mile basis
Moving a ton of freight an average of 436 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel (up from 423 in 2006)
Increasing fuel efficiency of trains by 80 percent over the past 25 years
Source: AAR
If just 10% of the freight that currently moves by truck were diverted to rail, fuel savings would exceed one billion gallons a year
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Environmental SolutionsImproving Air Quality
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Calendar Year
NO
x E
mis
sio
ns
(g
/to
n-m
ile
)
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0.070
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Calendar Year
PM
Em
iss
ion
s (
g/t
on
-mil
e)
Trains are 2-3 times cleaner than trucks on a ton-mile basis
California Statewide with No SCAB Fleet Average-- L. S. Caretto: Updated truck versus rail emissions comparison , August 2007
NOx Emissions per Ton Mile of Freight PM Emissions per Ton Mile of Freight
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Moving You Forward
• Growth Markets
• Creating Capacity Through Investments
Growing Where You're Going
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Growth Markets
U.S. Growth Markets
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Growth Markets
U.S. Gateways
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Growth Markets
BNSF Intermodal Network
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Growth Markets
BNSF Intermodal Network Density
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Growth Markets
Distribution WarehousesTop warehouse markets forecasted to grow over 100M sq. ft. for third consecutive year
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Key Takeaways
Growth Markets
Gulf Coast Megapolitan Study
Population Gulf will add 2.6M people by 2030 driving the need for consumer
goods, construction & building products BNSF well positioned
Economic Drivers Key origin for energy infrastructure, chemicals & refined
products Trade
Opportunities Unit growth Train service growth
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Growth MarketsGulf Coast Megapolitan Study
Key Drivers Markets
Population Growth
Trade
Infrastructure for EnergyPipe
Wind Towers
AggregatesAutomotive
CementSteel
Agricultural ProductsPlastic Resins
Refining & Fuels
CoalPet Coke
Petroleum Products
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F
Program Maintenance Expansion Mechanical Other Locomotive
Capital CommitmentsCreating Capacity Through InvestmentsCapital Plan
$ Millions
$2,258
$2,520
$2,265
$1,763$1,608
$1,505
$1,726
$1,988$2,179
ROIC
6.6% 6.6%
7.9%
10.1%9.5% 9.7%
9.4%
7.2%
8.8%$2,670 $2,593
11.4%10.5%
$2,575
Capital Commitments with ROIC
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3,851
5,1835,1645,025
4,7644,512
4,243
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008P
Year End
Creating Capacity Through Investments Adding Road Locomotives
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Creating Capacity Through Investments BNSF Expansion Projects in Service 2008
* 2007 - 2008
KEENBROOK SUMMIT
TT – 14 miles
SPRINGFIELD DIVISION
Sidings, DT – 3 miles Birmingham
Temple-MP 210DT – 6 miles
GULF DIVISION YARD PROJECTSArcola, TX – Connection Track
Bellville, TX – Storage Track Extensions
Galveston, TX – Track additions
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Creating Capacity Through Investments Facility Expansion - 2007
GARDNERWorking with USACE to obtain permit
Scheduled to start construction in 2008 Complete late 2009 or 2010 Will include wide-span cranes, adjacent stacking
area, and traditional parking
SIGDoubled facility capacity
Improvements at North SIG yard complete Installation of four wide-span cranes
complete Yard fully operational Feb. 1
MEMPHISConstruction continues on new
intermodal facility Target in-service date – first half 2009 Will include wide-span cranes, adjacent
stacking area, and traditional parking
ALLIANCE New/extended lead tracks and support
tracks in-service Gate expansion and installation of
automated gate system complete Q1 2008
OAKLANDPlanning for expansion
Continuing to work with Port to secure property adjacent to OIG
Anticipate completing deal with Port this year
SCIGWork on permitting continues
ATLANTA Parking expansion complete Additional lead capacity
complete in Q1 2008
LA/HOBART Strip track extensions Additional parking capacity Support yard improvements
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Creating Capacity Through Investments
Texas
ALLIANCE New/extended lead tracks and support
tracks in-service Gate expansion and installation of
automated gate system complete Q1 2008
Temple-MP 210 DT – 6 miles
GULF DIVISION YARD PROJECTS Arcola, TX – Connection Track Bellville, TX – Storage Track Extensions Galveston, TX – Track additions
Fort Worth Ethanol Facility Increasing capacity to
accommodate full unit trains
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Moving You Forward
Especially as the short-term market continues to soften, Intermodal provides a competitive solution to meet your transportation needs and is the best value for your transportation dollar
BNSF is: Investing to match future capacity needs identified in
the strategic planning process where you are going Providing the most fuel efficient and cleanest form of
land transport of bulk goods and materials
What more can we do for you?