starter activity Who or what influences the way we vote?
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Transcript of starter activity Who or what influences the way we vote?
starter activity
Who or what influences the way we vote?
ClassClass AgeAge GenderGender EthnicityEthnicity EducationEducation MediaMedia Party policiesParty policies
Party leadersParty leaders Opinion pollsOpinion polls IssuesIssues GeographyGeography ParentsParents Personal economic Personal economic
prospectsprospects
Who influences Who influences the way we vote?the way we vote?
An introduction to voting An introduction to voting behaviourbehaviour
How do psephologists How do psephologists interpret voting behaviour?interpret voting behaviour?
PsephologyPsephology Primacy model (social divisions, e.g. Primacy model (social divisions, e.g.
age, gender, ethnicity)age, gender, ethnicity) Recency model (volatile voting Recency model (volatile voting
behaviour, e.g. behaviour, e.g. partisan partisan dealignment,dealignment, embourgeoisement, embourgeoisement, floating voters floating voters ) )
Voting behaviour in Voting behaviour in by-by-elections elections & & marginalsmarginals
Voting moreVoting more volatile volatile ProtestProtest & & tactical tactical
votingvoting v. common v. common Media & party focusMedia & party focus By election seats By election seats
often recaptured by often recaptured by original holders at original holders at general electionsgeneral elections
2005 anti-Iraq vote, 2005 anti-Iraq vote, e.g. Oona King, Bethanl e.g. Oona King, Bethanl
Green & Bow lost to Green & Bow lost to George GallowayGeorge Galloway
Voting behaviour in general Voting behaviour in general electionselections
Opinion pollsOpinion polls Swing Swing of votes of votes
from one party to from one party to another, measured another, measured against last against last general electiongeneral election
2005 GE, 2.0% 2005 GE, 2.0% swing from Lab. to swing from Lab. to Cons.Cons.
The Times Swingometer for 2005 GE
The electorate – socio-The electorate – socio-economic trends & issueseconomic trends & issues
North-South divideNorth-South divide Changing patterns Changing patterns
of occupationof occupation Home ownershipHome ownership EthnicityEthnicity GenderGender AgeAge ReligionReligion Social ClassSocial ClassBased on research in P. Fairclough, ‘AS & A Level Govt. & Politics through diagrams’
North-South Divide?North-South Divide? 1980s growing divide 1980s growing divide
between prosperous South & between prosperous South & economically declining Northeconomically declining North
Primary industriesPrimary industries (e.g. (e.g. mining) & manufacturing mining) & manufacturing (e.g. textiles) declining(e.g. textiles) declining
Service Service & & financial sectorfinancial sector expandingexpanding
Differences in health & life Differences in health & life expectancy (‘Postcode expectancy (‘Postcode lottery’)lottery’)
1994, average income per 1994, average income per head in North = 89% of UK head in North = 89% of UK averageaverage
Average income per head in Average income per head in South = 117% of UK averageSouth = 117% of UK average
Changing patterns of Changing patterns of occupationoccupation
Decline in heavy industry Decline in heavy industry (36% GDP, 1951; 22% GDP (36% GDP, 1951; 22% GDP 1995)1995)
Decline in manufacturing Decline in manufacturing employment (43%, 1955; employment (43%, 1955; 18%, 1996)18%, 1996)
Decline in heavy industry Decline in heavy industry employment (0.9%, 1996) employment (0.9%, 1996)
Expansion of service sector Expansion of service sector (36%, 1955; 76%, 1996)(36%, 1955; 76%, 1996)
Privatisation of nationalised Privatisation of nationalised industriesindustries
Increased share ownership Increased share ownership (7%, 1979; 22%, 1997)(7%, 1979; 22%, 1997)
More female, part-time More female, part-time workers (20%, 1996) & self-workers (20%, 1996) & self-employed (1979-90, employed (1979-90, increased 75%)increased 75%)
Home ownershipHome ownership Housing Act, 1980, gave Housing Act, 1980, gave
council house tenants council house tenants ‘right to buy’ at ‘right to buy’ at discounts of 50-70% discounts of 50-70% market valuemarket value
1988, most council 1988, most council house stock transferred house stock transferred to Housing Associationsto Housing Associations
Increased home Increased home ownership increased ownership increased (52-67%, 1971-95)(52-67%, 1971-95)
Decrease in rental (48-Decrease in rental (48-32%, 1971-95)32%, 1971-95)
EthnicityEthnicity 1996, ethnic population 1996, ethnic population
= 3.3m (6% of pop.)= 3.3m (6% of pop.) Problems – Problems –
discrimination, under-discrimination, under-achievement, achievement, unemployment & low payunemployment & low pay
Inherent racism - 1997, Inherent racism - 1997, Guardian survey, 32% Guardian survey, 32% white population would white population would mind if relatives married mind if relatives married Afro-CaribbeanAfro-Caribbean
Inequalities in judicial Inequalities in judicial systemsystem
Threat of terrorismThreat of terrorismOona King
GenderGender Increase in female Increase in female
workforce (1971-workforce (1971-196, 33-44%)196, 33-44%)
Glass ceilings – 26% Glass ceilings – 26% female workers female workers employed in clerical employed in clerical occupationsoccupations
Lower average Lower average weekly income weekly income (1995, 374.60 men, (1995, 374.60 men, £269.60 women)£269.60 women)
AgeAge
Ageing population Ageing population – pensions crisis, – pensions crisis, strains on NHSstrains on NHS
Decrease in birth Decrease in birth rate, increase in rate, increase in life expectancylife expectancy
Average life Average life expectancy 70+expectancy 70+
ReligionReligion Church of England Church of England
described as ‘Tory Party at described as ‘Tory Party at prayer’, closely identified prayer’, closely identified with establishmentwith establishment
Non-conformists aligned Non-conformists aligned with Liberalswith Liberals
Non-Christians & Catholics Non-Christians & Catholics tend to support Labour tend to support Labour (48%/60% in 2001)(48%/60% in 2001)
Conservatives receive Conservatives receive more support from more support from Anglicans than other Anglicans than other groups (39% in 2001)groups (39% in 2001)
Problems differentiating Problems differentiating religion from ethnicity, e.g. religion from ethnicity, e.g. Asian / Muslim votersAsian / Muslim voters
Social classSocial class
Market research divide class into 6 socio-Market research divide class into 6 socio-economic classes (1964/1992)economic classes (1964/1992)
A Professional / senior managerial (7.0/11.6)A Professional / senior managerial (7.0/11.6) B Middle managers / execs. (12.3/16.3)B Middle managers / execs. (12.3/16.3) C1 Junior managers / non-manual C1 Junior managers / non-manual
(23.1/31.3)(23.1/31.3) C2 Skilled manual (7.6/4.8)C2 Skilled manual (7.6/4.8) D Semi-skilled / unskilled manualD Semi-skilled / unskilled manual E Residual or causal workers / unemp. E Residual or causal workers / unemp.
(50.2/36.0)(50.2/36.0)