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Cédric PhilibertRenewable Energy DivisionInternational Energy Agency

Renewable energy technologies, 2030 and beyond:

And the winners are…

WBG Energy Day, 23 February 2012

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ENERGYTECHNOLOG

YPERSPECTIV

ESScenarios &Strategiesto 2050

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Power from renewables in 2050

Renewables provide ½ to ¾ power by 2050

18%31%

Variable RE 18% to 31%

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ENERGYTECHNOLOG

YPERSPECTIV

ESScenarios &Strategiesto 2050

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RE generation in 2050 for key countries/regions

The mix varies according to resources

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Dem

and

(MW

)

Variability is not new, but it does get bigger with variable renewables (wind power, solar PV)

Source: Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, GE Energy for NREL (2010)

Demand

Demand net of wind and solar

Emerging challenges: grid integration

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Integration of variable renewable power

[Source: IEA 2011 – Harnessing Variable REnewable power]

Depends on: Nature of variable renewables (techno-

spread, time correlations; geo-spread) Flexibility of the whole power system

Four sources of flexibility: Dispatchable

generation Storage Demand-side

response Interconnections

IEA Flexibility ASsessment Tool

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Load-matching rather than base-load

Source: Mills and Cheng, 2011b

Source: M

ills and Cheng, 2011

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Solar energy: testing the limits A possible vision, under severe climate constraints, if

other low-carbon energy options are not available... Where are the technical limits to solar energy?

Many electricity technologies converging towards USD100/MWh (incl. CO2) around 2030 [Roadmaps, ETP]

Cost no longer main limit, but footprint, variability and convenience issues

Not necessarily least cost, but affordable options: Sunny and dry climates: CSP dominates Sunny and wet climates: PV backed by hydro Temperate climates: wind power and PV backed by

hydro/pumped-hydro (+ gas-fired balancing plants)Assuming efficiency improvements and further electrification

of buildings, industry and transport:Under best conditions, solar energy (mostly electricity) could

become a key contributor to the global energy mixSome fossil fuels still needed in transport, industry, electricity

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/IEA

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Storage needs for large-scale variable RE

Hourly/daily storage for PV and wind For rare long periods without wind or sun,

better use gas-fired balancing plants Inter-seasonal storage in some cases

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Solar thermal electricity (CSP)

Key value of STE/CSP is in thermal storage to generate electricity when needed and match demand effective and cheaper than electrical storage Sensible heat in molten salts Flexible CSP plants allow more wind and PV on the grid!

Source: Torresol Energy

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Storage solutions for large-scale variable RE Small or large, batteries are expensive G2V creates new opportunities for load

management. V2G to shave peaks?V2G shortens battery lifetime and has a (high) cost

Pumped-hydro plants the reference solution140 GW in service, 50 GW in developmentOther options mostly for shorter time-scalesDaily/weekly storage does not require large areas

© OECD/IEA, 2012Source: Inage, 2009.

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New options for pumped-hydro plants New and refurbished hydro power plants Plants can be developed independent of rivers

Using the sea as lower reservoir (Okinawa-style)Using natural declivity

Investment costs range: USD 500 to 2000/kWLCOE (incl. losses, 10% discount): $110/MWh-shifted

No natural slope? Still feasible…On flat lands with fresh water, or off shore

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In sum… Solar, Wind and Water - the largest potentials

Plus: potential of solar for energy access for all… High penetration of variable renewables needs

significant (pumped-hydro) storage capacities…With load-management, interconnections, smart

grids, flexible hydro, CSP and fossil plantsCosts of inter-seasonal storage the true limit?

Renewable resources and technologies are there for 30% final energy demand by 2030Challenges are economic, financial, administrative,

public acceptance, policy commitments…

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Hydrogen, an option for inter-seasonal storage? H2 very small, not easy to retain! Much easier to use in blend with natural gas Variable RE + electrolysis + methanation?

Economics of variable electrolysis at ambient T°?Economics of methanation?Overall efficiency – between 17% today and 33%

with more efficient technologies? Concentrating sunlight to high temperatures

offers better options to produce hydrogenReform natural gas, gasify biomass, reduce metalsSolid storage, blend in natural or biogas, liquids…

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