© OECD/IEA - 2008 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency Key...

© OECD/IEA - 2008

INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY

Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and Efficiency

Key Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis

ENERGY INDICATORS

International Comparisons of Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The IEA Indicator Approach

Dr Peter G TaylorActing Head, Energy Technology Policy Division

Climate Change and Sustainable Development – The Role of Indicators Expert Group Meeting, United Nations, 15 – 16 October 2008, New York


Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis

ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Overview

Introduction to the IEA work

Simple energy and CO2 indicators

Analysing trends and drivers

CO2 reduction potentials

Conclusions



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

IEA Indicators Work

Establish a harmonised framework for analysisHarmonisation => ComparabilityComparability => Understanding of

global trends and drivers Produce meaningful cross-country analysis

to provide guidance to policy-makers on:Underlying drivers (economic activity &

structure, income, prices...)Trends in energy use and CO2 emissionsEnergy efficiency opportunities and

progressPolicy effectiveness



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Shares of Global Final Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2006

Manufacturing33%

Households29%

Services9%

Transport26%

Other3%

Total final energy consumption: 285 EJ

Manufacturing38%

Households21%

Services12%

Transport25%

Other4%

Total direct and indirect CO2 emissions: 21 Gt CO2



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

OECD E

urop

e 19

9020

05

OECD P

acific 19

9020

05

US & C

anad

a 19

9020

05

Mex

ico 19

9020

05

China

199

020

05

India 19

9020

05

Brazil

199

020

05

Sout

h Afri

ca 199

020

05

Russia

199

020

05

RoW 199

020

05

EJ

Manufacturing Households Services Transport Other



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Total Final Energy Consumption by Energy Commodity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

OECD E

urop

e 19

9020

05

OECD P

acific 19

9020

05

US & C

anad

a 19

9020

05

Mex

ico 19

9020

05

China

199

020

05

India 19

9020

05

Brazil

199

020

05

Sout

h Afri

ca 199

020

05

Russia

199

020

05

RoW 199

020

05

Oil Natural gas Coal Renewables District heat Electricity



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Carbon Intensity of the Final Energy Mix

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

OECDEurope

OECDPacific

US &Canada

Mexico China India Brazil SouthAfrica

Russia RoW

kg C

O2 p

er

GJ

1990 2005



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

CO2 Emissions per Capita

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

t CO

2per capita

Other Transport Services Households Manufacturing



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

CO2 Emissions per Unit of GDP

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1990 1995 2000 2005

Index

(1990=1

00)

Brazil OECD Pacific South AfricaMexico RoW US & CanadaIndia OECD Europe RussiaChina

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

kg C

O2per U

SD

2000

using GDP at PPP using GDP at MER

2005 values



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

End-Use Coverage for Indicators



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Factors Affecting Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

Level of Energy UseActivityStructure (mix of activities)Energy intensity of each

activity

Carbon Intensity of Energy UseFuel mixCarbon intensity of each fuel



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Household CO2 Emissions by End-Use, IEA19

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990 1995 2000 2005

Mt C

O2

Space heating

Appliances

Water heating

Lighting

Cooking

5% 4%

8% 8%

16% 14%

27%34%

45%39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2005

Note: Energy use for space heating has been climate corrected



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy consumption of Appliances, EU15

0

100

200

300

400

500

kWh p

er ye

ar

1990 1995 2000 2005

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

1990 1995 2000 2005

Share

in to

tal a

pplia

nces

energ

y use

Large appliances Other appliances

Average Unit Energy Consumption

Share of Large and Small Appliances

Source: ODYSSEE



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Passenger Transport CO2 Emissions per Capita, 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

t CO

2 p

er capita

Cars Other passenger modes



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Energy Use per Passenger-Kilometre (All Modes)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

MJ

per

pkm

1990 2005



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Share of Total Passenger Transport by Mode, 2005

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cars Buses Rail Air Water



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Average Fuel Intensity of the Car Stock

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1990 1995 2000 2005

Litre

s of g

aso

line e

quiv

ale

nt per

100 v

ehic

le-k

m

USAustralia J apan New Zealand Canada Switzerland Sweden Ireland Germany Netherlands Norway Austria France UKFinland Denmark Italy Greece



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Decomposition of Trends in Overall CO2 Emissions, IEA16

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 1990-2005

Ave

rage

annua

l perc

ent c

hange

Actual energy use Actual CO2 emissions Activity Structure Intensity Fuel mix Carbon intensity



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Decomposition of Trends in CO2 per Unit of GDP

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Ave

rage

annua

l perc

ent c

hange

Energy efficiency effect Energy services per GDP CO2 intensity effect CO2 per GDP



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Factors impacting CO2 emissions from final energy use, IEA16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005

Gt C

O2 Actual CO2 emissions

Hypothetical CO2 emissions without either energy efficiency or CO2 intensity improvements

CO2 emissions savings from energy efficiency improvements

18%

CO2 emissions savings from reductionsin CO2 intensity of energy mix



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Using Indicators to Calculate Reduction Potentials for CO2 Emissions Use of BAT/BPT to assess potential in the

industrial and electricity generation sectors

These indicators are useful for showing:To what extent existing technology can achieve

further savingsWhere the potential lies (countries and

processes) However, there are limitations to the use

of the indicators:Assess instantaneous technical potentialDo not take into account practical constraintsNot suitable for short-term target setting

But calculated potentials are easy to understand



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

CO2 Reduction Potential in Cement, Based on Best Available Technology

0.18

0.39

0.25

0.220.20 0.20

0.19

0.14

0.09

0.06

0.16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

World Russia Canada US China Korea Brazil India OECDEurope

J apan Other

Mt C

O2

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Specifi

c s

avi

ngs

pote

ntial (

t C

O2 p

er

tonne o

f cem

ent)

Fuel CO2 Electricity savings Alternative fuel BF slag Other clinker substitute Specific savings potential



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Technical Fuel and CO2 Savings Potential from Improving the Efficiency of Electricity Production



ENERGY

INDICATORS

© OECD/IEA - 2008

Key Conclusions and Policy Messages Indicators are a powerful tool for analysing trends in

energy use and CO2 emissions, and calculating potentials for further savings

Results show the important role of energy efficiency in shaping patterns of energy use and CO2 emissions in IEA countries, but gains are often offset by other factors

Large potential for further energy and CO2 savings in many industries and power generation (and other sectors)

Sustainable development requires that CO2 emissions be decoupled from economic growth, this is possible but will require strong policy-action from Governments

Urgent need for governments to enhance framework for monitoring end-use energy consumption and address the gaps in available statistical data

© OECD/IEA - 2008


Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and Efficiency

Key Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis

ENERGY INDICATORS

Thank you !

contact: [email protected]

The latest IEA indicators report (published May 2008) is available for free download at: www.iea.org/Textbase/Papers/2008/Indicators_2008.pdf

© OECD/IEA - 2008 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency Key...

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