© Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1 Perils of Perception FOURTEEN COUNTRY...

© Ipsos

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1

Perils of PerceptionFOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

© Ipsos



• This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014

• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel.

• For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the United States of America

• The research is based on an

international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500

• Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country

• The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places

© Ipsos



Comparing our misperceptions

© Ipsos



Italy

US

South Korea

Poland

Hungary

France

Canada

Belgium

Australia

Great Britain

Spain

Japan

Germany

Sweden

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

13th

14th

7th

2nd

10th

6th

11th

8th

14th

1st

13th

4th 3rd

12th

9th 5th

INDEX OF IGNORANCE

Sweden

Germany

JapanSpainGB

US

PolandHungary

Italy

South Korea

Belgium

FranceCanadaAustralia

(Least accurate at top)

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24 3

18 1

17 0.5

16 2

15 1

16 3

15 2

14 0.4

13 0.2

14 1

12 0.6

11 0.7

11 0.5

8 0.7

+21

+17

+17

+14

+14

+14

+14

+14

+13

+13

+12

+11

+10

+7

US

Poland

Italy

Hungary

Canada

Great Britain

Australia

Germany

South Korea

Spain

France

Belgium

Japan

Sweden

IN YOUR

OPINION

WHAT

PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

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30 7

32 13

29 10

28 10

16 2

14 0.4

35 21

24 13

23 12

23 13

10 2

10 2

23 16

35 28

+23

+19

+19

+18

+14

+14

+14

+11

+11

+10

+8

+8

+7

+7

Italy

US

Belgium

France

Hungary

Poland

Canada

Great Britain

Spain

Germany

Japan

South Korea

Sweden

Australia

IN YOUR

OPINION

WHAT% OF THE POPULATION DO YOU

THINK AREIMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY?

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

© Ipsos



31 8

29 6

20 2

18 2

21 5

20 4

15 1

16 2

19 6

17 5

7 0.4

5 0.4

5 0.4

4 0.4

OUT OF

EVERY100 PEOPLEABOUT HOW

MANY DO YOU

THINK ARE MUSLIM?

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

+23

+23

+18

+16

+16

+16

+14

+14

+13

+12

+7

+5

+5

+4

France

Belgium

Canada

Australia

Great Britain

Italy

US

Spain

Germany

Sweden

Hungary

South Korea

Poland

Japan

TOO HIGH% POINT DIFFERENCE

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+13

+10

+9

-14

-14

-15

-15

-16

-18

-19

-20

-21

-22

South Korea

Japan

Hungary

Germany

Italy

France

Spain

Poland

Australia

Belgium

Sweden

Great Britain

Canada

US

42 29

11 2

62 53

58 58

69 83

49 63

62 77

79 94

67 85

46 64

48 67

39 59

49 69

56 78

% POINT DIFFERENCE

OUT OF


MANY DO YOU

THINK ARE CHRISTIAN?

AVG. GUESS ACTUALTOO LOW TOO HIGH

© Ipsos



48 21

42 15

39 14

43 18

37 14

36 14

40 18

41 19

38 18

37 17

40 21

41 25

32 16

33 19

+27

+27

+25

+25

+23

+22

+22

+22

+20

+20

+19

+16

+16

+14

Italy

Poland

Canada

Spain

Australia

US

Hungary

Belgium

France

Great Britain

Germany

Japan

South Korea

Sweden

OUT OF


MANY DO YOU

THINK ARE OVER 65?

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

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57 80

54 75

49 66

47 64

60 76

43 59

55 69

58 72

72 85

51 61

57 67

84 93

42 49

85 89-4

-7

-9

-10

-10

-13

-14

-14

-16

-16

-17

-17

-21

-23OUT OF

EVERY100 ELIGIBLE VOTERSABOUT HOW

MANY DO YOU

THINKVOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION?

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL

France

Italy

Great Britain

Hungary

South Korea

Japan

Spain

Germany

Sweden

Canada

US

Australia

Poland

Belgium

% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW

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49 12

32 8

39 11

32 6

34 9

31 8

46 25

29 9

23 6

24 7

24 8

23 7

19 4

20 6+14

+15

+16

+16

+17

+17

+20

+21

+23

+25

+26

+28

+32

+37Italy

South Korea

Hungary

US

Poland

Belgium

Spain

France

Australia

Great Britain

Sweden

Canada

Japan

Germany

OUT OF

EVERY100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGEABOUT HOW

MANY DO YOU

THINK AREUNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK?

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH

© Ipsos



89 80

83 80

85 82

85 82

82 80

81 80

82 81

82 82

80 82

78 80

81 84

78 82

72 77

68 75

+9

+3

+3

+3

+2

+1

+1

+0

-+2

-+2

-+3

-4

-5

-7

South Korea

Great Britain

France

Sweden

Germany

Belgium

Spain

Australia

Canada

US

Japan

Italy

Poland

Hungary

WHAT DO YOU

THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF

A BORN IN 2014?

AVG. GUESS ACTUALTOO LOW TOO HIGH% POINT DIFFERENCE

© Ipsos



National Perceptions

Looking at the data in a different way

• By plotting the data on a chart of average guess versus the actual figure we can see the scale of misperception and the real figures in each country.

• The dashed line on each chart is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line show where people have, on average, guessed too high while flags below show where people are too low compared with the actual figure.

• In very few cases the flag is on the dashed line, indicating a correct average guess by the population of a country.

© Ipsos



IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 YRS GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Girls aged between 15 and 19 years that give birth each year

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

20

25

People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers aged 15-19 who give birth each year..

© Ipsos



WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY?

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Immigrants to this country

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Across the 14 countries, the public think immigration is over twice the actual level – the average guess is that 24% of the population was born abroad, when the actual figure is 11%.

© Ipsos



Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Muslims

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM?

People massively overestimated the proportion of Muslims in every country. In France people guessed 31% of the population are Muslim, when the actual figure is only 8%.

© Ipsos



0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Christians

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN?

In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.

© Ipsos



OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65?

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Over 65

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

The issue of an ageing population is overestimated across the study. In Italy people think nearly half the population (48%) are 65+, when it is actually 21%.

© Ipsos



OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION?

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Voted in last election

40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Across the study people are pessimistic about democratic engagement. On average people guess that 58% voted in their last major election, when in fact 72% did.

© Ipsos



OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK?

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

10

20

30

40

50

Avera

ge g

uess

%

% Unemployed and looking for work

Unemployment is greatly overestimated without exception. In Italy, this is particularly apparent where the average guess is that 49% are unemployed, compared with an actual rate of 12%.

© Ipsos



WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014?

People across the study were much more perceptive about life-expectancy than most other areas. However some nations such as South Korea are too optimistic while Hungarians are too pessimistic.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 9070

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Avera

ge g

uess

Average life expectancy

© Ipsos



2 2 6

28

14

61

9382

15 1823

35 3745

84 82

PERILS OF PERCEPTION INAUSTRALIA

Actual Average guess

% 15-19 girls that

gave birth

% Over 65

% Muslim

% Unemployed

% Immigrants

% Christian

% Voted

% Life expectancy

Aussies tend to be wrong when asked about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as immigration and unemployment.

© Ipsos



33%

1%

1%

5%

11%

15%

17%

32%

38%

39%

42%

42%People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted

I still think the proportion is much higher

What I see in my local area

What I see when I visit other towns/cities

I was just guessing

Information seen on TV

Information seen in newspapers

The experiences of friends and family

Other

I misunderstood the question

Don’t knowBase: Asked of all who said 56%

% who thought immigration is 56% or more

Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted

IMMIGRATION

According to official statistics the percentage of the Australian population that was born in another country is actually 28%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?


© Ipsos



TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't Know%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

55%

19%

26%

Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Australia

CRIME


© Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1 Perils of Perception FOURTEEN COUNTRY...

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