U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

Open-File Report 2020–1127 Version 1.1, December 7, 2020

Mineral Resources Program

Investigation of U.S. Foreign Reliance on Critical Minerals—U.S. Geological Survey Technical Input Document in Response to Executive Order No. 13953 Signed September 30, 2020

Investigation of U.S. Foreign Reliance on Critical Minerals—U.S. Geological Survey Technical Input Document in Response to Executive Order No. 13953 Signed September 30, 2020

By Nedal T. Nassar, Elisa Alonso, and Jamie L. Brainard

Mineral Resources Program

Open-File Report 2020–1127 Version 1.1, December 7, 2020

U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

U.S. Department of the Interior DAVID BERNHARDT, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey James F. Reilly II, Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: First release: 2020 Revised: December 7, 2020 (ver. 1.1)

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Suggested citation: Nassar, N.T., Alonso, E., and Brainard, J.L., 2020, Investigation of U.S. Foreign Reliance on Critical Minerals—U.S. Geological Survey Technical Input Document in Response to Executive Order No. 13953 Signed September 30, 2020 (Ver. 1.1, December 7, 2020): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1127, 37 p., https://doi.org/ 10.3133/ ofr20201127.

ISSN 2331-1258 (online)

https://www.usgs.gov https://store.usgs.gov/ https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201127

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable input and feedback of U.S. Geological Survey colleagues Abraham D. Padilla, Katherine S. McMahon, Steven D. Textoris, and Michael J. Magyar and the formal peer reviews by Joyce A. Ober and Warren C. Day.

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Contents Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................iii Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Statement of Issue .........................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 U.S. Mineral Commodity Net Import Reliance ..........................................................................................5

Overview.................................................................................................................................................5 Factors for Consideration ....................................................................................................................5

Indirect Trade Reliance ...............................................................................................................7 Embedded Trade Reliance ..........................................................................................................7 Foreign Ownership of Mineral Assets and Operations .........................................................8

Additional Risk Considerations ..................................................................................................................10 Fragile Domestic Mineral Supply Chains ........................................................................................10 Exposure as a Component of Risk ....................................................................................................10

Strategies for Reducing Net Import Reliance .........................................................................................12 Mineral Commodity Overview....................................................................................................................14 Summary........................................................................................................................................................24 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................25 Appendix 1 Mineral Commodity Narratives .........................................................................................27

Figures

1. Diagram showing mineral commodity production concentration ........................................3 2. Diagram showing China’s share of global primary mineral commodity

production over time ....................................................................................................................4 3. Graph showing U.S. net import reliance over time .................................................................4 4. Diagrams showing source of mineral commodities consumed in the United States .......6 5. Diagram showing concentration of U.S. imports of various mineral commodities ...........7 6. Graph and map showing China’s global cobalt footprint. A, Cobalt mine,

intermediate, and refinery production or capacity by China’s domestic operations, equity-based share of Chinese firms overseas, and rest of world for 2016. B, Map identifies cobalt operations in China and those with some portion of Chinese equity ownership ......................................................................................................9

7. Graph showing comparison of net import reliance of the United States and China. .....10 8. Graph showing assessment of mineral commodity supply risk ..........................................11 9. Graph showing scenario analysis as a tool for evaluating the potential of

different strategies to reduce net import reliance ................................................................13

Tables

1. Summary of some of the forms that are produced and traded for each mineral commodity, foreign reliance considerations, trends for the global supply chain, and technical options for the domestic supply chain ...........................................................14

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Conversion Factors U.S. customary units to International System of Units

Multiply By To obtain

Mass ounce, avoirdupois (oz) 28.35 gram (g) pound, avoirdupois (lb) 0.4536 kilogram (kg) ton, short (2,000 lb) 0.9072 metric ton (t) ton, long (2,240 lb) 1.016 metric ton (t)

International System of Units to U.S. customary units

Multiply By To obtain

Mass gram (g) 0.03527 ounce, avoirdupois (oz) kilogram (kg) 2.205 pound avoirdupois (lb) metric ton (t) 1.102 ton, short [2,000 lb] metric ton (t) 0.9842 ton, long [2,240 lb]

Abbreviations APT ammonium paratungstate

D.R. Congo Democratic Republic of the Congo

E.O. Executive Order

HHI Hirschman-Herfindahl Index

HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule

NdFeB neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets

NDS National Defense Stockpile

NIR Net import reliance

PGM platinum-group metal

REE rare earth element

SEG samarium, europium, and gadolinium

SEG+ samarium, europium, gadolinium plus a mix of heavy rare earth elements

SmCo samarium-cobalt permanent magnets

U.S. United States of America

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

vii

8A1A

2A

3B 4B 5B 6B 7B 8B 11B 12B

3A 4A 5A 6A 7A

element names in blue are liquids at room temperature element names in red are gases at room temperature element names in black are solids at room temperature

Periodic Table of the Elements

Los Alamos National Laboratory Chemistry Division

39

*

**

As 39.10

85.47

132.9

(223)

9.012

24.31

40.08

87.62

137.3

(226)

44.96

88.91

47.88

91.22

178.5

(267) (268) (269) (270) (277) (278) (281) (282) (285) (289) (289)(286) (293) (294) (294)

50.94

92.91

180.9

52.00

95.96

183.9

54.94

(98)

186.2

55.85

101.1

190.2 192.2

102.9

58.93 58.69

106.4

195.1 197.0

107.9

63.55 65.39

112.4

200.5

10.81

26.98

12.01

28.09

14.01

69.72 72.64

114.8 118.7

204.4 207.2

30.97

74.92

121.8

209.0 (209) (210) (222)

16.00 19.00 20.18

4.003

32.06 35.45 39.95

78.96 79.90 83.79

127.6 126.9 131.3

140.1 140.9 144.2 (145) 150.4 152.0 157.2 158.9 162.5 164.9 167.3 168.9 173.0 175.0

232

138.9

(227) 231 238 (237) (244) (243) (247) (247) (251) (252) (257) (258) (259) (262)

Tc 43

11

1

3 4

12

19 20 21 22 23 24 25