–- International Conference on Climate Change, NEW YORK March 10th 2009 sponsored by Heartland...

– - International Conference on Climate Change, NEW YORK March 10th 2009 sponsored by Heartland Institute.

What Does & Does Not cause Climate Change

+ advances in the Solar Weather Technique & Forecast of World temperatures to 2030 & beyond

Piers Corbyn* www.weatheraction.comwith Judith Humprey, Kirill Kuzanyan (IZMIRAN Russ Acad Sci) & Ulric Lyons

* originator of the Solar Weather Technique of Long Range Forecasting and founder of WeatherAction 177 Borough High St, London SE1 1HRTel: +44 (0)20 7939 9946.; +447985734471

-

The Long Range Forecasters

* SWT extreme events forecasts

at conference

• Evidence based science !• Beware of confusing Cause, Effect & ‘Association’!

http://www.weatheraction.com/

What Does & Doesn’t drive ClimateOne X and you are out!

Evidence =>

CandidateTemps 1975 to 2000 (smoothed)

Temps last 100 or1k or 10k yrs

Temps last 25k yrs

22 yr signal in world temps

= might explain

X = doesn't work

CO2 X X* X * This shows that on v long time scales CO2 is driven BY temps

(Extra solar)

Cosmic Rays(avoid confusion with solar muons etc)

X NB Total Energy flux of solar particles ~300 times Cosmic rays.

Light variations in solar cycle

? ? ? X Light variations in solar cycle less important than solar magnetic (but UV is important)

Solar Activity & MAGNETIC Link/modulation

ALSO (SWT) has predictive powers 12 months ahead

Why GW is renamed Climate Change

The theory of ‘Global warming’ holds that Man’s CO2 causes Global Warming and this causes other Climate Change and extremes.

CO2 Global Warming Climate Change

We have heard a lot about weather extremes & ‘Climate Change’

Since 1998 CO2 has gone up but World Temperatures have gone down. ALL subseqent years* have been colder than 1998Or In terms of two year moving averages the peak was 2002/3

*From Official estimates of world temperatures: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt

So we see claimed extra effects – ‘Climate Change’ - without extra temperature rise to cause them !!!

Problems for GW ‘Standard Orthodoxy’ - 1

Problems for GW ‘Standard Orthodoxy’ - 2

Rather than face continued embarrassment from scientists who requested the temperatures be also published, the most recent IPCC ‘report’ leaves out even the historical CO2 graph!

The Global Warmers’ last gasps

Claim Refutation

“CO2 levels have never risen so fast or been so high”

(i) Anything X zero effect = zero(ii) No evidence for this. There are no CO2 spikes

in the past ice cores because CO2 is a gas and diffuses through centuries of ice. This current CO2 spike will be invisible in 1k yrs time.

“ONLY CO2 etc can explain recent temperature rises”

Really - like present world cooling!!?? The graphs making this claim are smudge and fudge. (Slides at end)Geomagnetic activity smoothed over 22yrs (solar magnetic period) fits temperature much better.

Temps drive CO2 as ice ages end.Fast CO2 changes (like now) are hidden

At the end of the last ice age temperature changes LEAD CO2 by 800yrsSimilar leads are in Antarctic Termination III 240kyr ago (Caillon et al Science Mar 03)

CO2 diffuses through ice CO2 data points are at best 200yrs apart and show only small variations between points. This is because CO2 is a gas and diffuses into centuries of ice layers. The present CO2 spike will amount to a mere blip in 1,000yrs time.

There is No Evidence that the present CO2 rapid rise is unique.

Time

Inconvenient Truths for GW Orthodoxy!

Solar Activity drives Climate – Oman stalagmite data 9.5kyr to 6k yr before present

Growth layers of stalagmite in a Cave in Oman show:

Close correlation between Particles from the Sun* & Temperature** {*C14 proxy from Cosmic Ray Flux which is reduced by Solar magnetic-particle

activity. **O18 isotope is Climate proxy}

Similar correlations exist over the last 500 Million yearsSee Neff et al, Nature May 2001; Veizer, Geoscience Canada March 05

Proxies drivers and modulatorsBeware confusion of cause, effect & association!

Increased solar (magnetic) activity excludes more cosmic rays (extra-solar high energy) from solar system and Earth. Cosmic rays convert N14 to C14 so C14 is a reverse proxy for solar activity.

ΔC14 = – Δ Solar activity => 11yr signal Also note solar Cycle length = 1/ solar activity approx.

Geomagnetic activity = Solar activity <11yr> X Earth magnetic cross section (depends on slow

changing Earth’s magnetic field) => 11yr signal

Temperature = Particle EFFECT = Geomag activity X magnetic linkage to lower atmosphere via poles etc <22yr> => 22yr signalSolar magnetic cycle (22yr) smoothed temps and geomagnetic activity move together better than anything else.

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Fig 4a. Global Temperature Anomaly [red line] and

geomagnetic activity, aa, [blue line], both averaged for successive solar cycles (from maximum to maximum).

World Temperatures & Solar Particles (Geomagnetic Activity), Over Single Solar Cycles

aa

View in NOTES MODE for explanationWorld Temperatures and solar particles move together much better when averaged over

the (approx)11yr sunspot cycle, but there is an alternate cycle difference.

Note Colour change!

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1870-1893 1893-1917 1917-1937 1937-1957 1957-1979

Double Solar Cycles

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Fig 6a. Global Temperature Anomaly [red line] and geomagnetic activity, aa, [blue line], both averaged over each double solar

cycle (from maximum to second maximum).

World Temperatures & Solar particles (Geomagnetic

Activity), Over Double Solar (Hale) Cycles. Shown Moscow July 04

aa

World Temperatures and solar particles move together astoundingly well when averaged over the Double sunspot cycle.

The largest and highly significant signal in World Average Temperature records is the Solar-Magnetic, or Hale Double-sunspot cycle; which has averaged 21 to 22 years since 1868

Peaks on this plot mark the main periodicities present in the data

Piers Corbyn, Weather Action

The weather extremes of recent years are part of natural essentially predictable processes*……..

The severe summer floods of 2007 & 2008 were like the very wet summers of 1875, 1876, 1877 and 1879 - associated with the approx 132 yr pattern (6X22=132), 7X19=133

The 2007 & 2008 summer floods were predicted in detail by the SWT. This flood-likely summers situation can continue for a few years but is SUBJECT TO other conditions (SWT) being satisfied.

*As explained by Piers Corbyn to the Imperial College Union President’s centenary dinner 27th July 2007.

Weather in 21st Century - Answers

Temperatures (USA) & CO2 1895 to 2008

- Official data - Graph by JD’Aleo Sept 2008 Circulated by Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com

World Temp peak 2002/3

LfrEf point(s)




World temperatures signals & trends – 3yr moving avs

- Official data - Graph by Judith Humphrey March 2009 for Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com




World temperatures signals & trends – 5 yr moving avs

- Official data - Graph (Temp data) by Judith Humphrey March 2009 for Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com

11 13 15 17 19

21 23

9

= Declining phase of Odd solar cycle = Solar eclipse Dec 1-13 (lunar node pointing to sun near where earth crosses solar equator downwards) = Lr/fEfThe main world temperature envelope peaks occur in years following close coincidence of Lr/fEf & Odd solar max + 1yr or the 2 yrs following. Cycles 23 & 17 show this well.




‘TG’ Gap

World Temperatures follow what…?

Answer to ‘TG’ gap question re Inst Of Physics Presentation 2004 lies in Solar -magnetic - Lunar modulation – to be explained at Presentation!

Solar particle & magnetic activity - OR -A ‘special mix’ of CO2 (nature & Man) + CH4 + N2O + O3 + volcanoes + soot/aerosols + some sunlight +..If the Man-Earth ‘special mix’ is in charge then how does the sun decide to send out particles to match this Earth-based driver?!

The two graphs are lined up so that points of the upper graph (average up to date shown over double sunspot cycle of approx 22yr) corresponds to the date in lower graph, the smoothed CO2/Soot model

The ‘soot’ model uses global ‘undimmimng’ (soot reduction) to explain rises later in the graph. The solar model can use the same or effects of the very rapid motion of the North magnetic pole.

The CO2/soot model has wide uncertainties which include different assumptions which might fit OK in one section but not in others (eg so over any 22yr section). The idea there is even rough closeness to the range needs hidden inconsistencies.

And a mystery solved!!

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-4.htm

How can solar particles & events change the weather? - 1

Lunar Nodal regression, R = 1/18.61 yr, & Magnetic linkages Z/2 = 1/22.2 yr

Beats for 2R & (Z/2): 2R /(Z/2) = 2.37 => B = 2R-2(Z/2); 1/B = ~59 yr

Beats for R & (Z/2) : R /(Z/2) = 1.18 => B = R- (Z/2); 1/B = ~118yr

These are ‘envelope’ periods - a guide not precise predictors of detailed repeat periods. So, eg, close repeats are not 118 yrs before 2002 ( =1884) but the odd cycles 11 before and 13 after which moderately satisfy the Lunar node & Solar-Earth ‘falling’ node coincidence rule.


Signals of note – all observed in spectrum to within uncertainties

Geomagnetic activity

~ 11yr = Solar cycle Lunar apsides (perigee-apogee line) advance ~ 8.85yr

World Temps ~ 22yr = solar period doubled due to magnetic linkage modulation.

Lunar nodes (either direction) ~ 9.3yr

Solar wind – Moon – Planets angular momentum interactions

Nodal period days

Solar magnetic rotation (synodic) days

Ratio

Earth-Moon 27.212d 27.2 1.0Pluto-Charon 6.3 – 6.4d 25.5d 4.0

Earth/Moon & Pluto/Charon are both ‘comparable mass’ pairs of bodies. All the moons of all other planets are relatively much smaller. This special relationship between the sun spin relative rate & the nodal crossing period of moons with their planets is not seen anywhere else in the solar system.

How can solar particles & events change weather? - 4

Solar UV & Particle bursts affect the stratosphere and jet stream. Jet stream shifts are the main immediate causes of weather & climate change.

Many of these changes described by ‘Red Spikes’ & ‘SWIPS’ (Solar Weather Impact Periods) are predictable by the Solar Weather Technique many months ahead with 85% Success rate for SWT predicted extreme events (in eg 66 world extreme predictions in last 12 months)

June to Dec 2007 (SWT23A) WeatherAction’s Long range SWT Forecasts successfully predicted:

• All 11 flood periods in Britain summer 2007 success for 10/11 in England/Wales - one missed and hit Scotland

• The North Sea storm surge – which came on 9th Nov – 2,000 evacuated from Yarmouth, unprecedented raising of sea defences in Holland

• “Extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell” for near end Nov (extended to1/2Dec) – confirmed by highest ever recorded waves in western Britain (forecast from 11 months ahead)

Success score for Floods / rain / wind storms June to Dec 2007: 14/16

Why doesn’t this get headlined in The Times, Guardian, BBC etc? Why do successful long range forecasts get attacked?!Why do ‘GWers’ falsify WeatherAction forecasts in order to discredit them?

The 85%+ success rate of Weather Action extreme events predictions is maintained or surpassed in 2008 & 2009 (now SWT25d) & extended in scope around the world.

Spectacular Success of SWT from 2007 - from up to 11 months ahead

World temperatures trend will continue down in 2008 and all the way to 2013 and

almost certainly beyond WeatherAction’s Climate forecast issued in Jan 2007 that world temperatures in 2007 would NOT rise in the way the UN’s Climate Change panel predicted has been confirmed.

“For 2008 the general downward trend of world temperature will continue. World temperatures, averaged over pairs of consecutive years, peaked in 2002/3 coinciding with the peak of the 22yr world temperature cycle which is driven by the sun’s magnetic cycle. The Solar-particle corridor is open for more – predictable - solar driven weather extremes in 2008” says Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction.

SWT Climate Forecast – issued Jan 08

Geomagnetic Activity, which is a measure of solar particles hitting the Earth’s magnetic field (which extends 7 Earth radii into space), mainly follows the 11yr sunspot cycle


NOTE. Scaled Hale Cycles are all made 22 ‘pseudo-years’ long so shorter cycles are stretched a little and longer ones compressed so Minima and Maxima coincide for stacking purposes etc.

World Temps follow the Solar Magnetic cyclePeaks on average are 2 years after Odd Maximum.

The Max for cycle 23 was in 2001. Smoothed (2yr) world temps show a peak in 2002/3.


Solar charged particles come in essentially 11year cycles but the magnetic connectivity of the Sun-Earth system, which enables the particles to penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere further, changes from strong to weak over periods of Hale cycle length. This causes the Hale cycle of World temperatures.

Strong linkage starts just after the Odd Max (eg Cycle 23 max 2001) and Weak linkage starts just after the even Max (cycle 24 Max will be approx 2012)

Where will world temperatures go?CO2 - No effect

Solar -Lunar magnetic modulation – Minimum around 2030-32 probably similar to late 1970s levels.

Magnetic Hale cycle The 22yr peaks of world temps are at Odd max + 2 years (ie around 2002/03). The Temp minima are at Even max plus 2 (for cycle 24, max = 2013+2=2015). At such times Geomagnetic activity & WORLD temperatures are OPOSITELY correlated. So although there are some early forecasts of generally low activity in Solar cycle 24 (eg SSN about 85) these will NOT have a significant reducing effect on world temperatures. The important thing will be more detail especially of linkage and weather EVENTS and the next Odd cycle.

‘Slow’ Sun-Earth changes such as a ‘Maunder’ type ‘little ice age ’ minimum. This is a serious possibility inferred by recent lack of solar activity but yet neither ruled out nor in. For such the next ODD sunspot cycle (cycle 25, commencing around 2019 peak 2024 end 2030) is critical.

CONCLUSION General cooling to 2030 (& poss beyond) reaching 1970 levels or below. The possibility of getting much colder by then or by 2040 – to below 1910 levels is not ruled out and can probably be estimated with further theoretical research and one more year of solar observation.

Odd->Even Magnetic Linkage (Even Cycle Max)Hale phase 17-5. NB strong/weak defns vary

Even->Odd Magnetic Linkage (Odd Cycle Max) Hale phase 6-16

Sun-Earth magnetic linkage changes through each Hale cycleThere is a maximum in the sensitivity of Temps and other weather variables to changes in solar particles. This occurs at Odd-Even solar Minimum (ie the start of even cycle) = about 2006/2007 - hence recently more weather contrasts/ extremes.


The IPCC says Man’s CO2 + dust etc drives Global Warming

(From http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-4.htm) Figure 4: Simulating the Earth’s temperature variations, and comparing the results to measured changes, can provide insight into the underlying causes of the major changes.A climate model can be used to simulate the temperature changes that occur both from natural and anthropogenic causes. The simulations represented by the band in (a) were done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. Those encompassed by the band in (b) were done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulphate aerosols, and those encompassed by the band in (c) were done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings included. From (b), it can be seen that inclusion of anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed temperature changes over the past century, but the best match with observations is obtained in (c) when both natural and anthropogenic factors are included. These results show that the forcings included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not exclude the possibility that other forcings may also have contributed. The bands of model results presented here are for four runs from the same model. Similar results to those in (b) are obtained with other models with anthropogenic forcing.

The IPCC tries to match world temperatures to a combination of various factors (notably volcanoes & dust) and man’s CO2 – the vital factor they say.

ImportantWhen the IPCC ‘include solar variations’ they do NOT mean changes in particle and magnetic effect, they only mean light – which changes by only 0.1%. The relative change in solar particle and magnetic effect in one solar cycle is 50,000 times larger.

Notice this uses a boost of global ‘undimming’ (ie reductions in dust/ aerosols) towards the end of the period to get a better fit.









The weather extremes of recent years are part of natural essentially predictable processes……..

The slow sea level (volume) rise - 6 inches per century - will continue even as world

surface cools {notwithstanding changes in ocean floor shape such as the appearance of trenches and sumps in the Pacific as

the Indian sub-continent pushes up the Himalayas}


The weather extremes of recent years are part of natural essentially predictable

processesThe ’22yr’ (Solar-Magnetic) cyclical tendency for more extreme events will continue for a

few years and then decline (NB It is not clockwork!)

Last cycle: - Hot July 84, V cold Feb 86, Storms Oct 87

The SWT Predicted to within a few days from 11 months ahead the major Autumn storms 07 – N Sea storm surge early Nov,

- Giant sea swell (highest ever recorded west BI) end Nov


The weather extremes of recent years have been part of natural essentially predictable processes……..

Supposed man-made Global Warming / Climate Change extremes as distinct from natural – eg solar activity driven – extremes are fiction and will not recur.

Prediction of tendency for extreme events and actual events is entirely possible and depends on many factors of cycles and processess in the Solar Weather Technique.


What Stops CO2 Extra ‘Greenhouse’ effect?- further to Piers Corbyn International Climate Seminar Stockholm Sept 2006

10% or so of total evapo-transpiration heat removal (cooling) is transpiration from land plants. 11% of 78W/m2 = 8.6 W/m2

Extra plant transpiration-Cooling negates all extra CO2 heating

New!

Doubling CO2 increases CO2 Greenhouse heating of Earth’s surface by 3.8 W/m2. It also increases plant growth & therefore transpiration heat removal (cooling) by 43% to 45%. Now, 44% of 8.6 = 3.8 W/m2

3.8 – 3.8 = 0 So CO2 increase has no net effect on world temperatures.

New!Heat flow in & out of Earth’s surface

[assuming effect of CO2 doubling reliable although that is questioned]

Extra CO2 Ghe if CO2 doubled =>(3.8W/m2)

Greenhouse = H2O (largest Ghe) + CO2 etc

Net Radiation in

Extra Photosynthesis transpiration heat OUTFLOW if CO2 doubles approx = 3.8W/m2- taken up and away from surface

Plant evap

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1. Enjoy life! Enjoy the planet! Don't feel guilty about ‘carbon footprints’. CO2 is the Gas Of Life (GOL)! More GOL increases the bounteousness of plant & animal life. Stop real smoke and chemical pollution – GOL (CO2) IS NOT A POLLUTANT.

2. Recognise Man cannot change Climate Change! The Problem is Climate Change POLICY.

‘Climate Science’ lacks integrity. Science is not driving policy. It’s the other way round! Climate Change ‘science’ is driven by those who benefit from Climate Change Policy. Act on the Charter for Climate Truth:

Prove and predict. Basic standards of science should be applied in Climate science and any theory of Climate Change must be tested against available recorded data and testable specific predictions made.

Naming & Shaming. Scientists or journalists who make baseless claims or false statements on Climate and weather should be ‘named and shamed’.

3. Get rid of ‘Green Spivs’ - Call politicians to account. ‘Justify it or drop it’. If they cannot justify a claim they most drop the policy.

Write to them – challenge them in meetings…..

Support Honest green policies for biodiversity & defending nature.Scrap Climate Change / anti GOL (‘Green’) taxes and policies. End their world burden - of high energy prices and food price rises and starvation caused by biofuels.

Support the world economy not the green scam – which is the of new bubble of FALSE VALUE. The climate hype industry are a burden on the world economy & make billions from carbon trading, windfarms & other green scams, nuclear power, & holding back world development.

What to do? – 3 point plan

–- International Conference on Climate Change, NEW YORK March 10th 2009 sponsored by Heartland...

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