• Identify the Differences Between Analytical Decision

8/14/2019 Identify the Differences Between Analytical Decision

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Identify the differences between

Analytical Decision Making andIntuitive Decision Making

Describe basic design and deliveryrequirements for Tactical DecisionGames (TDGS)

Demonstrate how Sand TableExercises (STEX) can be used to

deliver TDGS


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How We Decide


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Observation #2

The lower the echelon ofcommand the simpler,

faster, more direct andaccelerated the decisionprocess


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Observation #3

The ability to rapidlydevelop solutions to

new problems is basedon pattern recognition


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Intuitive Decision Making(reactive)

Pattern recognition based onprevious experience

Analytical Decision Making(planned)

Calculated selection of

alternatives


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Rely on experience to recognize

the essence of a given situationor problem

Utilize pattern recognition from

previous actions, observations,and training to develop thesolution


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Best way to improve decision

making is to improve patternrecognition, the best way toimprove pattern recognition is

to improve. . .Situation Awareness


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Rarely is there only one

right answer

A good plan executed now

is better than the perfectplan executed too late


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Identify possible options

Analyze all options according toa set criteria

Calculate a value for all criteriaof each option

Choose the option with highest

total criteria values


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In Theory . . . . .

The highest value optionwill provide the most

optimal solution


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In Reality . . . . .

The environment isconstantly changing andinformation can quickly

become outdated

Lack of time can hamper

the ability to conduct an


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Both analytical and intuitive decisionmaking are used on the fireground

Firefighters at the tactical level relyprimarily on intuitive decisionmaking

Decision making skills can beimproved with practice


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So why spend timeplaying games whenthere is work to do . .

.


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TDGS and STEX provide a

simple, adaptable, andrepeatable method ofchallenging a firefighter to

make decisions in situationsthey will face on the fireground


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Practice making decisions in anoperational context

Practice communicating those decisions inthe form of briefings or instructions

Sit in the hot seat and build patternrecognitions skills


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Facilitator provides information or abriefing describing a scenario

Student plays the role of a leader in adilemma that requires a decision

Requires interactive two-waycommunication between role players


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Utilizes a 3-D terrain model to help

visually develop and present a TDGS

Ideally suited for group exercises

Low tech simulation method


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Suspend disbelief

Induce stress

Create dilemmas

Observe behaviors


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DesigningTDGS


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Put participants in role-play situations

Provide limited information Apply time constraints

Face a dilemma Conduct an After Action Review (AAR)


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Takes place prior to designing a TDGS

Facilitator identifies the goal of the TDGSIt can be a very specific objective:

Practice standard report on conditions

procedure with dispatch

Or it can be a more comprehensive:

Lets workon initial attack

operations


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Start with a problem, not a solution

Start general, then get specific Create uncertainty Create time pressure

Create competing priorities Create interaction between resources or

subordinates


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Build to a single dilemma thatrequires an immediate decision

OR

Identify multiple decision points andscript a dynamic simulation

(Decision Tree)


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Scenario

Direct Attack Indirect Attack

Air support No Air support

Retardant Helicopter Mechanical Failure

Structure Protection Highway closure

Establish Separate Organization


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Delivering

TDGSusing Sandtables


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Tell me and I will forget,Show me and I mayremember, but involve me

and I will understand Chinese proverb


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Enthusiastic

Tactically knowledgeable

Thinks quickly on feet

Keeps it moving

Able to summarize

lessons

Critiques without being

critical

Involves all players


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Respectful - identify good ideas

Confrontational - keep the pressure on

Try to achieve a balance!


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Brief group with all players assumingthey are the designated leader

Provide a short time for players todevelop their decision and instructions

Select a player to issue instructions

verbally as they would on the fireground

Have more than one player take the hot

seat and issue instructions


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Paint a good picture of the environment inthe briefing

Control the tempo with time tags andpiece movement

Murphy invented TDGSinsertuncertainty and adversity into the gamewith pre-planned inputs

Utilize IRPG and other SOPs


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Always AARfocus on decision making

As the facilitator, you should not be doingmost of the talking Ask the players to think aloud describe

situational awareness, how decision was

made, etc Avoid leading questions, ask open-ended

questions


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General form: Asking about X, where X is a specific subject andwhere there is more than one right way to answer.

Examples: HOW would you have handled the situation? WHY is it important to _________?

WHY NOT just simplify things and only __________?

WHAT are some experiences youve had in the past that aresimilar to this situation?

WHAT would you do IF _________?


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Concentrate on decision making, NOT ontactics

Stick with the training objectives

Emphasize effective communication

Utilize standard local unit identifiers

Utilize IPRG, SOPs, and other job aids

Create a level of positive stress Conduct an After Action Review


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Briefing

After Action Review

Planning

Training (TDGS, Topo Interp, etc) Full scale simulations

• Identify the Differences Between Analytical Decision

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