Ιδιώτες | Eurobank - KEY UPCOMING HIGHLIGHTS...Antonis Samaras, Deputy Prime Minister...
Transcript of Ιδιώτες | Eurobank - KEY UPCOMING HIGHLIGHTS...Antonis Samaras, Deputy Prime Minister...
DISCLAIMER This report has been issued by Eurobank Ergasias SA (ldquoEurobankrdquo) and may not be reproduced in any manner or provided to any other person Each person that receives a copy by acceptance thereof
represents and agrees that it will not distribute or provide it to any other person This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein
Eurobank and others associated with it may have positions in and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking
services for those companies The investments discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on the specific investment objectives and financial position The information contained
herein is for informative purposes only and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but it has not been verified by Eurobank The opinions expressed herein may not necessarily coincide
with those of any member of Eurobank No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy completeness correctness timeliness or fairness of the information or opinions
herein all of which are subject to change without notice No responsibility or liability whatsoever or howsoever arising is accepted in relation to the contents hereof by Eurobank or any of its directors
officers or employees Any articles studies comments etc reflect solely the views of their author Any unsigned notes are deemed to have been produced by the editorial team Any articles studies
comments etc that are signed by members of the editorial team express the personal views of their author
1
November 11 2014
HIGHLIGHTS
WORLD ECONOMIC amp MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS Major European bourses opened higher on Tuesday taking their lead from
the positive tone in Wall Street overnight In FX markets the latest bout of increased risk appetite
dented the JPYrsquos safe-haven appeal with the USDJPY hitting a fresh seven-year high earlier today
GREECE Speaking to reporters y-day after his meeting with Greecersquos Premier Antonis Samaras
Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he expects troika heads to return to Athens soon
enough so as Greecersquos current program review to be completed in time for the December 8th Eurogroup
where the prospect of the country being granted a precautionary credit line after the expiration of the
EFSF lending program is expected to be addressed
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
SERBIA The dinar extended its recent losses on Monday to hit a new record low against the euro
amid persisting fiscal consolidation concerns and uncertainty surrounding the progress of the ongoing
IMF negotiations
ROMANIA The Ministry of Finance sold as planned RON 1bn of 1-year T-Bills on Monday at an
average accepted yield of 163 below market expectations of 170-175 while the bid-to-cover
ratio stood at 224
BULGARIA The newly appointed finance minister Vladislav Goranov said on Monday that the
recently endorsed government will discuss a new budget revision withdrawing a previous one
proposed by the caretaker government
CESEE MARKETS CESEE stock markets were mixed in European trade on Monday while
currencies broadly weakened and government bonds recorded modest gains after low inflation data
from Romania and Hungary released earlier on the day added to expectations for further monetary
easing in the region
KEY UPCOMING DATA amp EVENTS THIS WEEK GLOBAL US November 13 Initial
jobless claims (Nov 8)
November 14
o Retail sales (Oct)
o UoM consumer
sentiment (Nov)
EUROZONE
November 14
o GDP (Q3 flash)
o HICP (Oct f)
SEE
SERBIA
November 11 HICP
(Oct)
November 13 MPC
meeting
ROMANIA
November 10
o Trade balance (Sep)
o Industrial production
(Sep)
o 25 2019 T-Bonds
auction
November 11 CPI (Oct)
November 13
o Current account (Sep)
o 2023 T-Bonds auction
November 14
o GDP (Q3 A)
BULGARIA
November 10
o Trade balance (Sep)
o UE rate (Oct)
November 12 CPI (Oct)
November 14 GDP
(Q3 p)
Source Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets
Research
November 14 2013
2
November 11 2014
Latest world economic amp market
developments GLOBAL MARKETS
Major European bourses opened higher on Tuesday taking their lead from the positive tone in
Wall Street overnight where both the Down Jones industrial average and SampP 500 indices
marked a record closing high for the fourth consecutive session mainly supported by encouraging
Q3 corporate earnings results In FX markets the latest bout of increased risk appetite dented the
JPYrsquos safe-haven appeal with the USDJPY hitting a fresh seven-year high of 11600 earlier
today Against this background data showing that Japanrsquos current account surplus rose more than
expected on an annual basis in September failed to exert a positive impact on the JPY Elsewhere
the EURUSD was standing close to 1240005 at the time of writing not far from a near two-
week trough of 12360 touched a couple of sessions earlier amid persisting market talk that the
ECB is likely to adopt additional unconventional measures within its mandate in the coming
months to address the risk of the euro arearsquos inflation remaining low for a prolonged period
Todayrsquos global calendar is light suggesting that range-trading will likely prevail
GREECE
According to ELSTAT revised data that set 2010 as the new base year the Production Index in
Industry fell for the seventh straight month in September by 51YoY mainly due to a hefty
fall in electricity production Elsewhere Greecersquos HICP fell by 18YoY in October the highest
annual pace of decline in the last five months remaining below the eurozonersquos average for the
39th straight month Speaking to reporters y-day after his meeting with Greecersquos Premier
Antonis Samaras Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he expects troika heads
to return to Athens soon enough so as Greecersquos current program review to be completed in time
for the December 8th Eurogroup where the prospect of the country being granted a precautionary
credit line after the expiration of the EFSF lending program is expected to be addressed
According to local press reports the date for the return of the troika heads has yet to be officially
announced as discussions with domestic authorities via e-mails on key issues underlying the
current review continue
ppetropouloueurobankgr
Latest developments in the CESEE region
CESEE MARKETS
CESEE stock markets were mixed in European trade on Monday while currencies broadly
weakened and government bonds recorded modest gains after low inflation data from Romania
and Hungary added to expectations for further monetary easing ahead in the region In more
detail CPI in Hungary declined by 04YoY in October almost in line with a record decrease of
05YoY marked a month earlier and coming in against expectations for a marginally milder
03YoY drop Meanwhile the annual rate of increase in consumer prices in Romania stood at
14 over the same month sliding marginally below the Central Bankrsquos inflation target of 15-
35 and standing not too far from a lifetime trough of 07 recorded in June The marketrsquos
median forecast was for an unchanged reading from Septemberrsquos 15YoY print Recall that the
National Bank of Romania resumed its rate-cutting cycle in August after a six month pause
having rendered 75bps of cumulative rate reductions thereafter while the door remains open for
further monetary easing in early 2015 On the other hand Hungaryrsquos Central Bank signaled in
July that it completed its 2-year monetary easing cycle following 490bps of cumulative rate cuts
However headwinds to the regionrsquos economic growth prospects and the latest ECB monetary
policy decisions as well as expectations for further action ahead recently stirred speculation
about a potential resumption of MNBrsquos rate easing cycle early next year
gphokaeurobankgr
1450
1550
1650
1750
1850
1950
2050
2150
Nov-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
SampP 500
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global
Markets Research
250
270
290
310
330
350
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
STOXX 600
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global
Markets Research
600
800
1000
1200
1400
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
ATHENS GEN INDEX
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global Markets Research
800
900
1000
1100
1200
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
MSCI
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global
Markets Research
L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- B+
ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BBB- BBB-
CYPRUS Caa3 B+ B-
Credit Ratings
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global Markets Research
November 14 2013
3
November 11 2014
SERBIA
(Belgrade 10112014 1700 CET) Market Developments The dinar extended its recent
losses on Monday amid persisting fiscal consolidation concerns and uncertainty surrounding
the progress of ongoing IMF negotiations Despite renewed CB intervention (ca euro20mn) at
levels around 1199012010 the EURRSD ended 03 higher on the day at 1200525 within
distance from a new record peak of 1201535 touched intraday Although negative annual real
GDP growth readings in Q2 and Q3 2014 bode well for further monetary easing ahead we
anticipate the Central Bank to hold its fire at its MPC meeting on Thursday and maintain its
key policy rate unchanged at 850 due to the domestic currencyrsquos recent sharp depreciation
ivanradoviceurobankrs
DjordjeLuciceurobankrs
gphokaeurobankgr
ROMANIA
(Bucharest 11112014 850 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments According to
data adjusted by number of working days and seasonality industrial output rose by 49YoY
in September after a 47YoY advance in August bringing the annual rate of increase to
85YoY over the first nine months of the year Separately the trade deficit widened by
166YoY to euro4854mn in September pushing the year-to-date shortfall 26YoY higher to
euro428bn The breakdown of the data showed that exports increased by 71YoY to euro391bn in
January-September while imports rose by 66YoY to euro434bn over the same period Market
Developments The leu recovered some of last weekrsquos losses on Monday trailing a rally
staged by the forint on the back of somewhat easing concerns about the prospects of
Hungaryrsquos domestic banking sector Along these lines the EURRON closed at 4425044270
recoiling from opening levels of 4434044360 and moving further below from a near 2-month
peak of 4441030 hit late last week amid NBR Governor Mugur Isarescursquos recent dovish
comments In the local rates market interest rate swaps were little changed on Monday with
the corresponding 1 3 6 and 12-month mid implied yields ending at 11 14 16 and
17 respectively In other news the Ministry of Finance sold as planned RON 1bn of 1-year
T-Bills on Monday at an average accepted yield of 163 below market expectations of 170-
175 while the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 224 In the secondary market government
bonds were little changed on Mondayrsquos session with the corresponding 3 and 10-year mid-
yields ending at 225 and 10Y 38 respectively
Romulus-DanielGeorgescubancpostro
gphokaeurobankgr
BULGARIA
(Sofia 11112014 1000 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments The newly
appointed finance minister Vladislav Goranov said on Monday that the recently endorsed
government will discuss an updated 2014 budget withdrawing a previous one proposed by the
caretaker government The new general government deficit target for 2014 will be set at 37
of GDP instead of 40 suggested by the caretaker government above the 30 Maastricht
criterion According to preliminary data the general government fiscal shortfall stood at 22
of GDP over the first ten months of the year already in excess of an initial deficit target of
18 In order to finance the higher deficit the government plans to raise the debt level by
BGN45bn The government is anticipated to agree on the proposed budget changes today and
subsequently submit them to parliament for approval In other news the Ministry of Finance
reopened on Monday a 5-year government bond selling BGN 55mn at a bidcover ratio of 211
and an average accepted yield of 261 below 242 achieved last month
VBotevapostbankbg
gphokaeurobankgr
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f
Real GDP growth -15 25 -04
CPI (pa yoy ) 78 78 25
Budget BalanceGDP -75 -58 -80
Current AccountGDP -109 -50 -42
EURRSD (eop) 11237 11457 11700
2013 current 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 950 850 800
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013e 2014f
Real GDP growth 06 35 30
CPI (pa yoy ) 33 40 17
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -23 -22
Current AccountGDP -44 -11 -10
EURRON (eop) 444 446 440
2013 current 2014
Policy Rate (eop) 400 275 275
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f
Real GDP growth 06 09 18
CPI (pa yoy ) 30 09 -09
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -15 -30
Current AccountGDP -09 19 10
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
195583
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
November 14 2013
4
November 11 2014
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 203826 03 103 EURUSD 12408 -01 -97 UST - 10yr 236 0 -67 GOLD 1151 00 -45
Nikkei 225 1712411 20 51 GBPUSD 1585 01 -43 Bund-10yr 084 1 -109 BRENT CRUDE 177 00 61
STOXX 600 33899 04 33 USDJPY 11594 -09 -92 JGB - 10yr 049 4 -25 LMEX 3098 -08 -19
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank Global Markets Research
Data updated as of 1220 EET
November 14 2013
5
November 11 2014
Contributors to this issue
Vessela Boteva Zoran Korac Galatia Phoka
Expert trading desk Eurobank Bulgaria FX dealer Eurobank ad Beograd Emerging Markets Analyst Eurobank Ergasias
+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922
vbotevapostbankbg
zorankoraceurobankrs galatiaphokaeurobankgr
Bogdan Radulescu CFA Ivan Radović
Senior Trader Bancpost Head Brokerage Department Eurobank and
Beograd
+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533
bogdanradulescubancpostro ivanradoviceurobankrs
Eurobank Ergasias SA 8 Othonos Str 105 57 Athens tel +30 210 33 37 000 fax +30 210 33 37 190 email EurobankGlobalMarketsResearcheurobankgr
Eurobank Global Markets Research More research editions available at htppwwweurobankgrresearch
Greece Macro Monitor Periodic overview of key macro amp market developments in Greece
Daily overview of global markets amp the SEE region
Daily overview of key developments in global markets amp the SEE region
South East Europe Monthly
Monthly overview of economic amp market developments in the SEE region
Global Markets amp SEE themes Special focus reports on Global Markets amp the SEE region
Subscribe electronically at htppwwweurobankgrresearch Follow us on twitter httpstwittercomEurobank Group
Eurobank Global Markets Research
Global Markets Research Team
Dr Platon Monokroussos
Chief Market Economist
pmonokrousoseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 903
Paraskevi Petropoulou G10 Markets Analyst
ppetropouloueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 991
Galatia Phoka Emerging Markets Analyst
gphokaeurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 922
Global Markets Sales
Nikos Laios Head of Treasury Sales
nlaioseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 910
Alexandra Papathanasiou Head of Institutional Sales
apapathanasioueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 996
John Seimenis Head of Corporate Sales
yseimeniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 909
Achilleas Stogioglou Head of Private Banking Sales
astogiogloueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 904
George Petrogiannis Head of Shipping Sales
gpetrogianniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 915
Vassilis Gioulbaxiotis Head International Sales
vgioulbaxiotiseurobankgr +30 210 3718995
November 14 2013
2
November 11 2014
Latest world economic amp market
developments GLOBAL MARKETS
Major European bourses opened higher on Tuesday taking their lead from the positive tone in
Wall Street overnight where both the Down Jones industrial average and SampP 500 indices
marked a record closing high for the fourth consecutive session mainly supported by encouraging
Q3 corporate earnings results In FX markets the latest bout of increased risk appetite dented the
JPYrsquos safe-haven appeal with the USDJPY hitting a fresh seven-year high of 11600 earlier
today Against this background data showing that Japanrsquos current account surplus rose more than
expected on an annual basis in September failed to exert a positive impact on the JPY Elsewhere
the EURUSD was standing close to 1240005 at the time of writing not far from a near two-
week trough of 12360 touched a couple of sessions earlier amid persisting market talk that the
ECB is likely to adopt additional unconventional measures within its mandate in the coming
months to address the risk of the euro arearsquos inflation remaining low for a prolonged period
Todayrsquos global calendar is light suggesting that range-trading will likely prevail
GREECE
According to ELSTAT revised data that set 2010 as the new base year the Production Index in
Industry fell for the seventh straight month in September by 51YoY mainly due to a hefty
fall in electricity production Elsewhere Greecersquos HICP fell by 18YoY in October the highest
annual pace of decline in the last five months remaining below the eurozonersquos average for the
39th straight month Speaking to reporters y-day after his meeting with Greecersquos Premier
Antonis Samaras Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he expects troika heads
to return to Athens soon enough so as Greecersquos current program review to be completed in time
for the December 8th Eurogroup where the prospect of the country being granted a precautionary
credit line after the expiration of the EFSF lending program is expected to be addressed
According to local press reports the date for the return of the troika heads has yet to be officially
announced as discussions with domestic authorities via e-mails on key issues underlying the
current review continue
ppetropouloueurobankgr
Latest developments in the CESEE region
CESEE MARKETS
CESEE stock markets were mixed in European trade on Monday while currencies broadly
weakened and government bonds recorded modest gains after low inflation data from Romania
and Hungary added to expectations for further monetary easing ahead in the region In more
detail CPI in Hungary declined by 04YoY in October almost in line with a record decrease of
05YoY marked a month earlier and coming in against expectations for a marginally milder
03YoY drop Meanwhile the annual rate of increase in consumer prices in Romania stood at
14 over the same month sliding marginally below the Central Bankrsquos inflation target of 15-
35 and standing not too far from a lifetime trough of 07 recorded in June The marketrsquos
median forecast was for an unchanged reading from Septemberrsquos 15YoY print Recall that the
National Bank of Romania resumed its rate-cutting cycle in August after a six month pause
having rendered 75bps of cumulative rate reductions thereafter while the door remains open for
further monetary easing in early 2015 On the other hand Hungaryrsquos Central Bank signaled in
July that it completed its 2-year monetary easing cycle following 490bps of cumulative rate cuts
However headwinds to the regionrsquos economic growth prospects and the latest ECB monetary
policy decisions as well as expectations for further action ahead recently stirred speculation
about a potential resumption of MNBrsquos rate easing cycle early next year
gphokaeurobankgr
1450
1550
1650
1750
1850
1950
2050
2150
Nov-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
SampP 500
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global
Markets Research
250
270
290
310
330
350
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
STOXX 600
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global
Markets Research
600
800
1000
1200
1400
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
ATHENS GEN INDEX
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global Markets Research
800
900
1000
1100
1200
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
MSCI
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global
Markets Research
L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- B+
ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BBB- BBB-
CYPRUS Caa3 B+ B-
Credit Ratings
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank
Global Markets Research
November 14 2013
3
November 11 2014
SERBIA
(Belgrade 10112014 1700 CET) Market Developments The dinar extended its recent
losses on Monday amid persisting fiscal consolidation concerns and uncertainty surrounding
the progress of ongoing IMF negotiations Despite renewed CB intervention (ca euro20mn) at
levels around 1199012010 the EURRSD ended 03 higher on the day at 1200525 within
distance from a new record peak of 1201535 touched intraday Although negative annual real
GDP growth readings in Q2 and Q3 2014 bode well for further monetary easing ahead we
anticipate the Central Bank to hold its fire at its MPC meeting on Thursday and maintain its
key policy rate unchanged at 850 due to the domestic currencyrsquos recent sharp depreciation
ivanradoviceurobankrs
DjordjeLuciceurobankrs
gphokaeurobankgr
ROMANIA
(Bucharest 11112014 850 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments According to
data adjusted by number of working days and seasonality industrial output rose by 49YoY
in September after a 47YoY advance in August bringing the annual rate of increase to
85YoY over the first nine months of the year Separately the trade deficit widened by
166YoY to euro4854mn in September pushing the year-to-date shortfall 26YoY higher to
euro428bn The breakdown of the data showed that exports increased by 71YoY to euro391bn in
January-September while imports rose by 66YoY to euro434bn over the same period Market
Developments The leu recovered some of last weekrsquos losses on Monday trailing a rally
staged by the forint on the back of somewhat easing concerns about the prospects of
Hungaryrsquos domestic banking sector Along these lines the EURRON closed at 4425044270
recoiling from opening levels of 4434044360 and moving further below from a near 2-month
peak of 4441030 hit late last week amid NBR Governor Mugur Isarescursquos recent dovish
comments In the local rates market interest rate swaps were little changed on Monday with
the corresponding 1 3 6 and 12-month mid implied yields ending at 11 14 16 and
17 respectively In other news the Ministry of Finance sold as planned RON 1bn of 1-year
T-Bills on Monday at an average accepted yield of 163 below market expectations of 170-
175 while the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 224 In the secondary market government
bonds were little changed on Mondayrsquos session with the corresponding 3 and 10-year mid-
yields ending at 225 and 10Y 38 respectively
Romulus-DanielGeorgescubancpostro
gphokaeurobankgr
BULGARIA
(Sofia 11112014 1000 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments The newly
appointed finance minister Vladislav Goranov said on Monday that the recently endorsed
government will discuss an updated 2014 budget withdrawing a previous one proposed by the
caretaker government The new general government deficit target for 2014 will be set at 37
of GDP instead of 40 suggested by the caretaker government above the 30 Maastricht
criterion According to preliminary data the general government fiscal shortfall stood at 22
of GDP over the first ten months of the year already in excess of an initial deficit target of
18 In order to finance the higher deficit the government plans to raise the debt level by
BGN45bn The government is anticipated to agree on the proposed budget changes today and
subsequently submit them to parliament for approval In other news the Ministry of Finance
reopened on Monday a 5-year government bond selling BGN 55mn at a bidcover ratio of 211
and an average accepted yield of 261 below 242 achieved last month
VBotevapostbankbg
gphokaeurobankgr
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f
Real GDP growth -15 25 -04
CPI (pa yoy ) 78 78 25
Budget BalanceGDP -75 -58 -80
Current AccountGDP -109 -50 -42
EURRSD (eop) 11237 11457 11700
2013 current 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 950 850 800
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013e 2014f
Real GDP growth 06 35 30
CPI (pa yoy ) 33 40 17
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -23 -22
Current AccountGDP -44 -11 -10
EURRON (eop) 444 446 440
2013 current 2014
Policy Rate (eop) 400 275 275
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f
Real GDP growth 06 09 18
CPI (pa yoy ) 30 09 -09
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -15 -30
Current AccountGDP -09 19 10
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
195583
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
November 14 2013
4
November 11 2014
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 203826 03 103 EURUSD 12408 -01 -97 UST - 10yr 236 0 -67 GOLD 1151 00 -45
Nikkei 225 1712411 20 51 GBPUSD 1585 01 -43 Bund-10yr 084 1 -109 BRENT CRUDE 177 00 61
STOXX 600 33899 04 33 USDJPY 11594 -09 -92 JGB - 10yr 049 4 -25 LMEX 3098 -08 -19
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank Global Markets Research
Data updated as of 1220 EET
November 14 2013
5
November 11 2014
Contributors to this issue
Vessela Boteva Zoran Korac Galatia Phoka
Expert trading desk Eurobank Bulgaria FX dealer Eurobank ad Beograd Emerging Markets Analyst Eurobank Ergasias
+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922
vbotevapostbankbg
zorankoraceurobankrs galatiaphokaeurobankgr
Bogdan Radulescu CFA Ivan Radović
Senior Trader Bancpost Head Brokerage Department Eurobank and
Beograd
+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533
bogdanradulescubancpostro ivanradoviceurobankrs
Eurobank Ergasias SA 8 Othonos Str 105 57 Athens tel +30 210 33 37 000 fax +30 210 33 37 190 email EurobankGlobalMarketsResearcheurobankgr
Eurobank Global Markets Research More research editions available at htppwwweurobankgrresearch
Greece Macro Monitor Periodic overview of key macro amp market developments in Greece
Daily overview of global markets amp the SEE region
Daily overview of key developments in global markets amp the SEE region
South East Europe Monthly
Monthly overview of economic amp market developments in the SEE region
Global Markets amp SEE themes Special focus reports on Global Markets amp the SEE region
Subscribe electronically at htppwwweurobankgrresearch Follow us on twitter httpstwittercomEurobank Group
Eurobank Global Markets Research
Global Markets Research Team
Dr Platon Monokroussos
Chief Market Economist
pmonokrousoseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 903
Paraskevi Petropoulou G10 Markets Analyst
ppetropouloueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 991
Galatia Phoka Emerging Markets Analyst
gphokaeurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 922
Global Markets Sales
Nikos Laios Head of Treasury Sales
nlaioseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 910
Alexandra Papathanasiou Head of Institutional Sales
apapathanasioueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 996
John Seimenis Head of Corporate Sales
yseimeniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 909
Achilleas Stogioglou Head of Private Banking Sales
astogiogloueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 904
George Petrogiannis Head of Shipping Sales
gpetrogianniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 915
Vassilis Gioulbaxiotis Head International Sales
vgioulbaxiotiseurobankgr +30 210 3718995
November 14 2013
3
November 11 2014
SERBIA
(Belgrade 10112014 1700 CET) Market Developments The dinar extended its recent
losses on Monday amid persisting fiscal consolidation concerns and uncertainty surrounding
the progress of ongoing IMF negotiations Despite renewed CB intervention (ca euro20mn) at
levels around 1199012010 the EURRSD ended 03 higher on the day at 1200525 within
distance from a new record peak of 1201535 touched intraday Although negative annual real
GDP growth readings in Q2 and Q3 2014 bode well for further monetary easing ahead we
anticipate the Central Bank to hold its fire at its MPC meeting on Thursday and maintain its
key policy rate unchanged at 850 due to the domestic currencyrsquos recent sharp depreciation
ivanradoviceurobankrs
DjordjeLuciceurobankrs
gphokaeurobankgr
ROMANIA
(Bucharest 11112014 850 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments According to
data adjusted by number of working days and seasonality industrial output rose by 49YoY
in September after a 47YoY advance in August bringing the annual rate of increase to
85YoY over the first nine months of the year Separately the trade deficit widened by
166YoY to euro4854mn in September pushing the year-to-date shortfall 26YoY higher to
euro428bn The breakdown of the data showed that exports increased by 71YoY to euro391bn in
January-September while imports rose by 66YoY to euro434bn over the same period Market
Developments The leu recovered some of last weekrsquos losses on Monday trailing a rally
staged by the forint on the back of somewhat easing concerns about the prospects of
Hungaryrsquos domestic banking sector Along these lines the EURRON closed at 4425044270
recoiling from opening levels of 4434044360 and moving further below from a near 2-month
peak of 4441030 hit late last week amid NBR Governor Mugur Isarescursquos recent dovish
comments In the local rates market interest rate swaps were little changed on Monday with
the corresponding 1 3 6 and 12-month mid implied yields ending at 11 14 16 and
17 respectively In other news the Ministry of Finance sold as planned RON 1bn of 1-year
T-Bills on Monday at an average accepted yield of 163 below market expectations of 170-
175 while the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 224 In the secondary market government
bonds were little changed on Mondayrsquos session with the corresponding 3 and 10-year mid-
yields ending at 225 and 10Y 38 respectively
Romulus-DanielGeorgescubancpostro
gphokaeurobankgr
BULGARIA
(Sofia 11112014 1000 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments The newly
appointed finance minister Vladislav Goranov said on Monday that the recently endorsed
government will discuss an updated 2014 budget withdrawing a previous one proposed by the
caretaker government The new general government deficit target for 2014 will be set at 37
of GDP instead of 40 suggested by the caretaker government above the 30 Maastricht
criterion According to preliminary data the general government fiscal shortfall stood at 22
of GDP over the first ten months of the year already in excess of an initial deficit target of
18 In order to finance the higher deficit the government plans to raise the debt level by
BGN45bn The government is anticipated to agree on the proposed budget changes today and
subsequently submit them to parliament for approval In other news the Ministry of Finance
reopened on Monday a 5-year government bond selling BGN 55mn at a bidcover ratio of 211
and an average accepted yield of 261 below 242 achieved last month
VBotevapostbankbg
gphokaeurobankgr
SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f
Real GDP growth -15 25 -04
CPI (pa yoy ) 78 78 25
Budget BalanceGDP -75 -58 -80
Current AccountGDP -109 -50 -42
EURRSD (eop) 11237 11457 11700
2013 current 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) 950 850 800
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013e 2014f
Real GDP growth 06 35 30
CPI (pa yoy ) 33 40 17
Budget BalanceGDP -30 -23 -22
Current AccountGDP -44 -11 -10
EURRON (eop) 444 446 440
2013 current 2014
Policy Rate (eop) 400 275 275
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f
Real GDP growth 06 09 18
CPI (pa yoy ) 30 09 -09
Budget BalanceGDP -08 -15 -30
Current AccountGDP -09 19 10
EURBGN (eop)
current 2013 2014f
Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA
195583
Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg
Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities
November 14 2013
4
November 11 2014
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 203826 03 103 EURUSD 12408 -01 -97 UST - 10yr 236 0 -67 GOLD 1151 00 -45
Nikkei 225 1712411 20 51 GBPUSD 1585 01 -43 Bund-10yr 084 1 -109 BRENT CRUDE 177 00 61
STOXX 600 33899 04 33 USDJPY 11594 -09 -92 JGB - 10yr 049 4 -25 LMEX 3098 -08 -19
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank Global Markets Research
Data updated as of 1220 EET
November 14 2013
5
November 11 2014
Contributors to this issue
Vessela Boteva Zoran Korac Galatia Phoka
Expert trading desk Eurobank Bulgaria FX dealer Eurobank ad Beograd Emerging Markets Analyst Eurobank Ergasias
+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922
vbotevapostbankbg
zorankoraceurobankrs galatiaphokaeurobankgr
Bogdan Radulescu CFA Ivan Radović
Senior Trader Bancpost Head Brokerage Department Eurobank and
Beograd
+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533
bogdanradulescubancpostro ivanradoviceurobankrs
Eurobank Ergasias SA 8 Othonos Str 105 57 Athens tel +30 210 33 37 000 fax +30 210 33 37 190 email EurobankGlobalMarketsResearcheurobankgr
Eurobank Global Markets Research More research editions available at htppwwweurobankgrresearch
Greece Macro Monitor Periodic overview of key macro amp market developments in Greece
Daily overview of global markets amp the SEE region
Daily overview of key developments in global markets amp the SEE region
South East Europe Monthly
Monthly overview of economic amp market developments in the SEE region
Global Markets amp SEE themes Special focus reports on Global Markets amp the SEE region
Subscribe electronically at htppwwweurobankgrresearch Follow us on twitter httpstwittercomEurobank Group
Eurobank Global Markets Research
Global Markets Research Team
Dr Platon Monokroussos
Chief Market Economist
pmonokrousoseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 903
Paraskevi Petropoulou G10 Markets Analyst
ppetropouloueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 991
Galatia Phoka Emerging Markets Analyst
gphokaeurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 922
Global Markets Sales
Nikos Laios Head of Treasury Sales
nlaioseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 910
Alexandra Papathanasiou Head of Institutional Sales
apapathanasioueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 996
John Seimenis Head of Corporate Sales
yseimeniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 909
Achilleas Stogioglou Head of Private Banking Sales
astogiogloueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 904
George Petrogiannis Head of Shipping Sales
gpetrogianniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 915
Vassilis Gioulbaxiotis Head International Sales
vgioulbaxiotiseurobankgr +30 210 3718995
November 14 2013
4
November 11 2014
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
SampP 500 203826 03 103 EURUSD 12408 -01 -97 UST - 10yr 236 0 -67 GOLD 1151 00 -45
Nikkei 225 1712411 20 51 GBPUSD 1585 01 -43 Bund-10yr 084 1 -109 BRENT CRUDE 177 00 61
STOXX 600 33899 04 33 USDJPY 11594 -09 -92 JGB - 10yr 049 4 -25 LMEX 3098 -08 -19
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank Global Markets Research
Data updated as of 1220 EET
November 14 2013
5
November 11 2014
Contributors to this issue
Vessela Boteva Zoran Korac Galatia Phoka
Expert trading desk Eurobank Bulgaria FX dealer Eurobank ad Beograd Emerging Markets Analyst Eurobank Ergasias
+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922
vbotevapostbankbg
zorankoraceurobankrs galatiaphokaeurobankgr
Bogdan Radulescu CFA Ivan Radović
Senior Trader Bancpost Head Brokerage Department Eurobank and
Beograd
+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533
bogdanradulescubancpostro ivanradoviceurobankrs
Eurobank Ergasias SA 8 Othonos Str 105 57 Athens tel +30 210 33 37 000 fax +30 210 33 37 190 email EurobankGlobalMarketsResearcheurobankgr
Eurobank Global Markets Research More research editions available at htppwwweurobankgrresearch
Greece Macro Monitor Periodic overview of key macro amp market developments in Greece
Daily overview of global markets amp the SEE region
Daily overview of key developments in global markets amp the SEE region
South East Europe Monthly
Monthly overview of economic amp market developments in the SEE region
Global Markets amp SEE themes Special focus reports on Global Markets amp the SEE region
Subscribe electronically at htppwwweurobankgrresearch Follow us on twitter httpstwittercomEurobank Group
Eurobank Global Markets Research
Global Markets Research Team
Dr Platon Monokroussos
Chief Market Economist
pmonokrousoseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 903
Paraskevi Petropoulou G10 Markets Analyst
ppetropouloueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 991
Galatia Phoka Emerging Markets Analyst
gphokaeurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 922
Global Markets Sales
Nikos Laios Head of Treasury Sales
nlaioseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 910
Alexandra Papathanasiou Head of Institutional Sales
apapathanasioueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 996
John Seimenis Head of Corporate Sales
yseimeniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 909
Achilleas Stogioglou Head of Private Banking Sales
astogiogloueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 904
George Petrogiannis Head of Shipping Sales
gpetrogianniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 915
Vassilis Gioulbaxiotis Head International Sales
vgioulbaxiotiseurobankgr +30 210 3718995
November 14 2013
5
November 11 2014
Contributors to this issue
Vessela Boteva Zoran Korac Galatia Phoka
Expert trading desk Eurobank Bulgaria FX dealer Eurobank ad Beograd Emerging Markets Analyst Eurobank Ergasias
+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922
vbotevapostbankbg
zorankoraceurobankrs galatiaphokaeurobankgr
Bogdan Radulescu CFA Ivan Radović
Senior Trader Bancpost Head Brokerage Department Eurobank and
Beograd
+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533
bogdanradulescubancpostro ivanradoviceurobankrs
Eurobank Ergasias SA 8 Othonos Str 105 57 Athens tel +30 210 33 37 000 fax +30 210 33 37 190 email EurobankGlobalMarketsResearcheurobankgr
Eurobank Global Markets Research More research editions available at htppwwweurobankgrresearch
Greece Macro Monitor Periodic overview of key macro amp market developments in Greece
Daily overview of global markets amp the SEE region
Daily overview of key developments in global markets amp the SEE region
South East Europe Monthly
Monthly overview of economic amp market developments in the SEE region
Global Markets amp SEE themes Special focus reports on Global Markets amp the SEE region
Subscribe electronically at htppwwweurobankgrresearch Follow us on twitter httpstwittercomEurobank Group
Eurobank Global Markets Research
Global Markets Research Team
Dr Platon Monokroussos
Chief Market Economist
pmonokrousoseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 903
Paraskevi Petropoulou G10 Markets Analyst
ppetropouloueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 991
Galatia Phoka Emerging Markets Analyst
gphokaeurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 922
Global Markets Sales
Nikos Laios Head of Treasury Sales
nlaioseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 910
Alexandra Papathanasiou Head of Institutional Sales
apapathanasioueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 996
John Seimenis Head of Corporate Sales
yseimeniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 909
Achilleas Stogioglou Head of Private Banking Sales
astogiogloueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 904
George Petrogiannis Head of Shipping Sales
gpetrogianniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 915
Vassilis Gioulbaxiotis Head International Sales
vgioulbaxiotiseurobankgr +30 210 3718995