Wargaming...conflict activities not involving actual forces, using rules, data and procedures, in...
26
Wargaming Major Tom Mouat MBE MSc PGCE psc ato sim Technology School © Crown Copyright
Transcript of Wargaming...conflict activities not involving actual forces, using rules, data and procedures, in...
WargamingMajor Tom Mouat MBEMSc PGCE psc ato sim
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Training = Practice
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Technology School© Crown Copyright
CAST
Simulated Troops
Simulated Environment
CAST Characteristics:
Expensive.
Complex.
We have few of them.
Future Force 2020 - Steady State Training:• Reaction Force: Twice in 3 years.
• Adaptable Force: Once in 3 years.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
http://www.army.mod.uk/documents/general/Army2020_Report_v2.pdf
Technology School© Crown Copyright
"Gentlemen, we have run out of money.It's time to start thinking"
Sir Ernest Rutherford, 1962
http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/547195-gentlemen-we-have-run-out-of-money-it-s-time-to
A little history
Kriegsspiel used for training in the Prussian army.
Created in 1812 by Lt von Reiswitz and his son.
The game was adversarial, used dice, a constant ground scale, real terrain features, limited intelligence and an experienced umpire.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Demonstration
1824 Demonstration.
Prussian General Staff.
General Von Muffling.
"This is not a game, this is training for war! I must recommend it to the whole army!"
Technology School© Crown Copyright
http://kriegsspiel.org.uk/index.php/articles/origins-history-of-kriegsspiel
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Why Wargame?
In order to practice decision making.
Against opposition.
To gain insights.
Common Misconceptions
Real Men don't wargame.
Wargames don’t teach you anything new.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Technology School© Crown Copyright
http://news.usni.org/2015/03/18/document-memo-to-pentagon-leadership-on-wargaming
The Class of 1927
Participants in the wargame:
Von Prager*, Adam, List*, Von Kluge*,Von Brauchitsch*, Von Witzleben*, Von Kleist*, Kesselring, Von Reichenau, Von Manstein*, Busch, Paulus, Guderian, Heinrici, Von Arnim,Von Mackensen, Matzky, Ott,Donitz.
Versailles Treaty.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles/Part_V
Technology School© Crown Copyright
General Von Moltke
Process:
Off-site.
TEWT.
Wargame.
Validation.
Records.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
http://www.strategypage.com/articles/default.asp?target=WARGHIS2.htm
Lessons from General Von Moltke
Plan.• Always ask the Junior Officer's opinion first.
Wargame.• Always adversarial.
• Always have equal teams.
Validate assumptions.• Verify performance.
• Record your results.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Wargame Definition
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Adversarial by nature, a Wargame is a representation of conflict activities not involving actual forces, using rules, data and procedures, in which the flow of events shapes, and is shaped by, the decisions made by the players during the course of those events.
(Based on Peter Perla's definition 2008)
Adversarial by nature…
a representation of conflict…
using rules, data and procedures…
shapes, and is shaped by, the decisions made by the players…
http://www.mors.org/UserFiles/file/PERLA%20-%20Wargamer%20Black%20Swan.pdf
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Wargames cover a broad spectrum:
Red Team
Matrix Game
Free Kreigsspiel
Rigid KreigsspielSeminar
Wargame
Creativity and Original Thought
Rigor and analytical precision
Computer-Assisted
Analytical Wargame
https://connectionswargaming.files.wordpress.com/2015/06/1245-1330-phil-pournelle-wargame-terminology.pptx
COA Wargame
Ex Agile Warrior 11 – Insight #10
"Wargaming is a powerful tool which is currently not well understood and therefore somewhat neglected."
The wargame includes four essential elements: • It must be genuinely adversarial.
• It must be Umpired.
• It must involve a deliberate element of uncontrollable chance.
• Scenarios should be fought through as often as time permits.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
http://indianstrategicknowledgeonline.com/web/tfn%20Agile_Warrior11_Report.pdf
"Uncontrolled Chance…"
"There is a 26% SSKP at 2000m against T90 frontal armour"
"The MTBF for Challenger 2 is 156Km"
"The Force Ratio Risk of having3:1 odds in a prepared attack ona hasty defensive position is a 70% chance of success"
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Computer Simulations
Kinetic Effect Modelling• Statistical data
Human influence Modelling• Current operations
Original Thought• Belgian Infantry Platoon
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Admiral Chester Nimitz - 1960:
"War with Japan had been re-enacted in the game rooms at the Naval War College by so many people and in so many different ways, that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise… absolutely nothing except the kamikaze tactics toward the end of the war; we had not visualized those."
Technology School© Crown Copyright
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/people/secnav/winter/SECNAV_Remarks_NWC_Current_Strategy_Forum.pdf
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Wargaming - an Israeli Perspective
Creating an adaptive military culture:
The aim is to learn, not to win.
In order to learn, the trainee has to:
• Fail.
• Be surprised.
• Be mentally challenged.
To learn that a failure doesn't mean defeat.
Brig Dr. Meir Finkel, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)IITSEC Conference 03 Dec 2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dado_Center_for_Interdisciplinary_Military_Studies
Technology School© Crown Copyright
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/6857702.html
Technology School© Crown Copyright
So – Why aren't we Wargaming?
Cost.
Lack of data to justify cost.
Pace of Operations.
Unwillingness to take risk in training.
Lack of Imagination.
Petty concerns.• Lack of a "foreign enemy".
• Unnatural "fight to the death".
• Cheating.
Loss of Face.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Summary
Properly conducted, Wargaming:
Improves decision making and performance.
Promotes original thought.
Allows ideas and plans to be tested safely.
Teaches that a failure doesn't mean defeat.
Educates players about their strengths and weaknesses.
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Is training for War
Technology School© Crown Copyright
Major Tom Mouat MBEMSc PGCE psc ato simSO2 DS Simulation and Modelling
Technology SchoolDefence Academy of the United KingdomShrivenham, Swindon, Wiltshire, SN6 8LA
Tel: +44(0)1793 784136Mil: 96161 4136Email: [email protected]
