© ACH

Dr. Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang

Professor of Strategic Studies& Director of American Studies

Tamkang University

Senior AssociateCenter for Strategic & International Studies

APEC 2007 WorkshopForeign Service InstituteTaipei, March 14, 2007

APEC 2007 WorkshopForeign Service InstituteTaipei, March 14, 2007

©ACH 2007. The views in the presentation should not be interpreted as those of the ROC government.

International Security EstimateIn the 21st Century

International Security EstimateIn the 21st Century

© ACH

© ACH

Major Events 2007 228 Incident – 60th anniversary Anti-Rightist Campaign – 50th anniversary Hong Kong turnover – 10th anniversary Asian Financial Meltdown – 10th anniversary PLA – 80th birthday Taiwan opened to China – 20th anniversary ROC Constitution – 60th anniversary

10th NPC / CPPCC – 5th Session (March) Taiwan Constitutional reengineering (Spring – ) DPP/KMT LY/Presidential nomination (Spring) CCP 17th Congress (Fall) Last APEC for CSB (November) Taiwan LY elections (December) Referenda: KMT Assets / Constitution (December)

© ACH

Competing Paradigms of International SecurityCompeting Paradigms of International Security

Prevention

1. Preventive Diplomacy

2. Strategic Ambiguity3. Incentives4. Multilateralism5. Peace-making6. Traditional Treaty

Allies7. Overwhelming Force

Prevention

1. Preventive Diplomacy

2. Strategic Ambiguity3. Incentives4. Multilateralism5. Peace-making6. Traditional Treaty

Allies7. Overwhelming Force

Preemption

1. Preemptive Defense

2. Strategic Clarity3. Coercion4. Unilateralism5. Regime Change6. Coalition of the

Willing7. Defense

Transformation

Preemption

1. Preemptive Defense

2. Strategic Clarity3. Coercion4. Unilateralism5. Regime Change6. Coalition of the

Willing7. Defense

Transformation

© ACH

Trends in GlobalizationTrends in Globalization

Political scenarios Universal values vs. Multipolar orders vs. New rules of game Good-bye Pax Americana / EU expansion / Rise of China

Economic scenarios Disconnected regions vs. Giant multinationals US dollar vs. Euro vs. Asian dollar

Technology scenarios Geographical irrelevance / Seamless & Instant information Cell phone as PDA/PC/SNG/Global Conference kit

Military scenarios Military operations other than war (MOOTW) Elephants vs. rats & the in-betweens

Political scenarios Universal values vs. Multipolar orders vs. New rules of game Good-bye Pax Americana / EU expansion / Rise of China

Economic scenarios Disconnected regions vs. Giant multinationals US dollar vs. Euro vs. Asian dollar

Technology scenarios Geographical irrelevance / Seamless & Instant information Cell phone as PDA/PC/SNG/Global Conference kit

Military scenarios Military operations other than war (MOOTW) Elephants vs. rats & the in-betweens

© ACH

© ACH

The Decline of American Superpower ?

© ACH

Axis of Evil

ShanghaiCooperationOrganization

Strategic PostureIn Asia-Pacific

2005

String of Pearls

First I

sland Chain

Washington Post April 12, 2005 P. A1

© ACH

The Rise of ChinaStatus Quo Tilted in the Taiwan Strait ?

© ACHWashingtonian, January 2007, pp. 66-71, 135-137.

© ACH

The Uncertain World America FacesSurvey by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Important

to US

in 5 yrs

China Russia Iran Japan UK India Pakistan EU Saudi A France

Likely

Ally

in 5 yrs

China UK Japan Russia India EU Pakistan Australia Saudi A France

Likely

Adversary

in 5 yrs

China Iran Russia N Korea Pakistan Saudi A Iraq Sudan India Syria

Important

to US

in 20 yrs

China Russia India Japan Pakistan Saudi A Iran EU Brazil UK

Likely

Ally

in 20 yrs

China India Russia Japan UK EU Brazil Canada France Germany

Likely

Adversary

in 20 yrs

China Russia Pakistan Saudi A Iran India Japan EU Indonesia

N Korea

David Rothkopf, Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council and the Architects of American Power, New York, NY: Public Affairs, 2004, pp. 448-456.

© ACH

© ACH

NortheastAsia Free

Trade Area

ShanghaiCooperationOrganization

ASEANPlusOne

Big WestDevelopment

NortheastRevitalization

YangtzeDelta

ZhujiangDelta

Regional Econ Groupings

Domestic Econ Projects

© ACH

China’s “Domestic-External Linkage” Regional Economic Strategy

Bohai RimEcon Circle

TWN StraitWest Bank

HK/MacauCEPA

TaiwanEconomy

GrandMekong

Sub-region

© ACH

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Red: states in the SCOBlack: states China does not want in SCOYellow: states China is willing to consider for membership in SCOBy Alex Liebman, Harvard UniversityAlex Liebman, Harvard University

© ACH

The Asean Plus Three/East Asia Summit

Red: states in the APTBlack: states China does not want in EAS (Russia currently has observer status; New Zealand not pictured).By Alex Liebman, Harvard UniversityAlex Liebman, Harvard University

© ACH

The Rise of ChinaDeserves a

Second Thought

© ACH

Owner ofDemocracy

民主的擁有者

Stakeholderin Security

安全的關係人

SharedValues

共享的價值

CommonInterests

共同的利益

Not Only But Also

© ACH

The all mighty God has granted the world everyday a sunny day.

If you don’t see the sun today, your strategic altitude is not high enough.

© ACH

史記卷八高祖本紀第八高祖曰：

夫運籌策帷帳之中，決勝於千里之外，吾不如子房。

鎮國家，撫百姓，給餽饟，不絕糧道，吾不如蕭何。

連百萬之軍，戰必勝，攻必取，吾不如韓信。

此三者，皆人傑也，吾能用之，此吾所以取天下也。 ahuang csis.org

報告完畢 敬祈指教

Peace through StrengthPeace through Strength