ASTANAECONOMIC

FORUM

Вот уже четвертый год в Казахстане, который находится в самом сердце крупнейшего континента Евразии, проходит столь крупное мероприятие миро-вого уровня как Астанинский экономический форум.

Данная диалоговая площадка, привлекающая с каждым годом все большее число участников из многих стран, является в тоже время уникальной. В отличие от остальных подобных форумов, основной движущей силой на форуме в Астане являются уче-ные-экономисты, объединенные главным организа-тором - Евразийским экономическим клубом ученых, который был создан по инициативе Президента Рес-публики Казахстан Нурсултана Абишевича Назарба-ева и объединяет ученых - экономистов более чем из 60 стран мира. Именно ученые, стали тем ядром, которые собрали вокруг себя политиков, представи-телей бизнес - сообщества и общественных объеди-нений.

Такой принципиальный подход к организации форума не случаен. К примеру, если человек обна-руживает у себя болезнь, в первую очередь он, ко-нечно, обратится к врачу. Ведь только врач может поставить правильный диагноз и назначить верное лечение. Когда в мировой экономике начались сбои, переросшие в кризис, первыми, кто поставил «диаг-ноз» стали именно представители научной среды. И только ученым, как врачам, с помощью практиков под силу найти единственно правильное решение проблем мировой финансовой системы.

Следуя этому принципу, мы пригласили на Аста-нинский экономический форум ученых с мировым именем, внесших значительный вклад в развитие экономической науки. Среди них можно особо отме-тить лауреатов Нобелевской премии – Роберта Ман-делла, Джона Нэша, сэра Джеймса Миррлиса, Эрика Маскина, Роберта Ауманна, Финна Кидланда и Род-жера Корнберга.

Кроме ученых, в работе Форума примут участие политики, общественные деятели, бизнесмены са-мого высокого уровня. Уверен, что такой представи-тельный состав участников Форума позволит выра-ботать, ставшие уже традиционными, рекомендации для саммита «Большой двадцатки».

Всем участникам Форума желаю плодотворной и успешной работы, а также приглашаю всех от имени Организационного комитета на V Астанинский эконо-мический форум, который состоится 23-24 мая 2012 года.

Главный редакторСерик Нугербеков

Such an outstanding event of the world level as the Astana Economic Forum is being held for the fourth time at the heart of the Eurasia continent, Kazakhstan.

The dialogue platform which also remains a unique place has been attracting more participants from different countries. Unlike other relevant forums, the main leading force at the Forum in Astana is scientists-economists united by the main organizer – Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists which was established at the initiative of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, N.A. Nazarbayev, and connecting scientists-economists from more than 60 countries worldwide. In particular scientists have become the core, who have connected politicians, representatives of business-societies and social alliances.

Such a fundamental approach to the organization of the Forum is not accidental. For example, if a person discovers the illness, first of all, he will go to see a doctor. Only the doctor can put the correct diagnose and assign the correct treatment. When the global economy started failing, later overgrown to the crisis, the first ones who put the “diagnose” have become the representatives of the scientific field. Only the scientists, as doctors, with the help of the practitioners are able to find the single right solution of the world financial system.

Following this principle, the worldwide known scientists have been invited to the IV Astana Economic Forum, who have made a significant contribution to the development of the economical science. Among them are the The Nobel Laureates – Robert Mundell, John Nash, sir James Mirrlees, Erik Maskin, Robert Aumann, Fynn Kydland and Roger Kornberg.

Besides scientists, also politicians, social activists, businessmen of high rank will participate at the work of the Forum. Surely, such a representative structure of Forum participants will allow to develop recommendations, which have become traditional, for the summit of G20.

I wish a fruitful and successful work to all participants of the Forum on behalf of the Organizing Committee, I also invite everyone to the V Astana Economic Forum which will be held on 23-24 May in 2012.

Editor-in-ChiefSerik Nugerbekov

ДОРОГИЕ ГОСТИ!DEAR GUESTS!

Serik Nugerbekov

Главный редакторСерик Нугербеков

Учредитель и издательОбъединение юридических лиц «Ассоциация

«Евразийский экономический клуб ученых»

Главный редакторНугербеков Серик Нугербекович

д.э.н

Редакционный совет: Барабанер Ханон Зеликович

д.э.н., Ректор Института экономики и управления ЭКОМЕН, Эстония

Плотникова Раиса Ивановнад.э.н., Директор Международного союза экономистов,

Российская ФедерацияСандоян Эдвард Мартинович

д.э.н., Проректор по развитию университетского образования Российско-Армянского (Славянского) Государственного университета,

Республика АрменияСейткасимов Габдыгаппар Сагитович

д.э.н., Ректор Казахского Университета экономики, финансов и международной торговли Республики Казахстан

Спицын Анатолий Тихоновичд.э.н., Первый Вице-Президент Международной

академии инвестиций, Директор Института стратегических исследований интеграционных проблем ЕврАзЭС,

Aкадемик РАЕНТагиев Намик Фаиг-оглы

д.э.н., Директор Национального Метрологического Центра Госкомитета по Стандартизации, Метрологии и Патентам Азербайджанской Республики

Федоров Михаил Васильевичд.э.н., Ректор Уральского государственного экономического университета,

Российская ФедерацияКаюмов Нуриддин Каюмович

д.э.н., Директор Института экономических исследований Министерства экономического развития и торговли Республики Таджикистан

Бопиева Жамиля Кадыровнад.э.н., И.о. Президента АО «Институт экономических исследований»,

Республика КазахстанТоксанова Айгуль Нурпеисовна

д.э.н., Вице-президент АО «Институт экономических исследований», Республика Казахстан

Каримсаков Мурат Ратович Председатель Исполнительного органа Ассоциации

«Евразийский экономический клуб ученых», Республика КазахстанСарина Бакытгуль Сагындыковна

к.э.н., Заместитель Председателя Исполнительного органа Ассоциации «Евразийский экономический клуб ученых», Республика Казахстан

Редактор-корректорАкишева Аруана Сагиндыковна

к.э.н.

Журнал зарегистрирован Министерством информации и связи Республики Казахстан.

Свидетельство № 11429 – Ж от 04 февраля 2011 г.

Все предложения, пожелания и замечания по изданию направляйте в редакцию журнала “Евразийский экономический обзор”.

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Founder and publisherUnion of legal entities «Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists» Association

Editor-in-ChiefSerik N. NugerbekovDoctor of Economic Sciences

Editorial board:Hanon Z. BarabanerDoctor of Economic Sciences, Rector, Institute of Economics and Management ECOMEN, EstoniaRaisa I. PlotnikovaDoctor of Economic Sciences, Director, International Union of Economists, Russian FederationEdward M. Sandoyan Doctor of Economic Sciences, Vice-Rector for University Education Development, Russian-Armenian (Slavic) State University, Republic of ArmeniaGabdigapar S. Seytkassimov Doctor of Economic Sciences, Rector, Kazakh University of Economics, Finance and International Trade, Republic of KazakhstanAnatoliy T. SpitsynDoctor of Economic Sciences, First Vice-President of the International Academy of Investments, Director of the Institute of Strategic Research of Integration Problems of the Eurasian Economic Community, Academician of Russian Academy of Natural SciencesNamik F. Tagiyev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Director, National Metrology Centre of the State Committee for Standardization, Metrology and Patent, Republic of AzerbaijanMikhail V. FedorovDoctor of Economic Sciences, Rector, Ural State University of Economics, Russian FederationNuriddin K. KayumovDoctor of Economic Sciences, Director, Institute of Economic Research of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Republic of TajikistanZhamilya K. Bopiyeva Doctor of Economic Sciences, Acting President, JSC “Economic Research Institute”, Republic of KazakhstanAigul N. Toxanova, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Vice-PresidentJSC “Economic Research Institute”, Republic of KazakhstanMurat R. KarimsakovChairman Executive Body “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists” Association, Republic of KazakhstanBakhytgul S. SarinaCandidate of Economic Sciences, Deputy Chair, Executive Body “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists” Association, Republic of Kazakhstan

Editor proof-readerAruana S. AkishevaCandidate of Economic Sciences

The Magazine is registered by the Ministry of Communication and Information of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Registration Certificate No. 11429 - Ж, dated February 04, 2011.

All proposals, suggestions and comments for publication should be directed to the Editor «Eurasian Economic Review».

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СОДЕРЖАНИЕ

АКТУАЛЬНОHIGHlIGHTSБахыт СултановIV Астанинский экономический форум: в фокусе событий........................................................8Bakhyt SultanovIV Astana Economic Forum: In the Spotlight...................................................................................12Анатолий СпицынН.А. Назарбаев – инициатор и организатор системного решения глобальных проблем мировой экономики...................................................................................16Anatoliy SpitsynN.A. Nazarbayev – Originator and Organizer of the System Decision of the Global Problems of World Economy..............................20Кайрат Келимбетов Форсированная модернизация: марш-бросок в будущее..........................................................24Kairat KelimbetovForced Modernization: Accelerated March to the Future................................................................25

ЧЛЕНЫ АЕЭКУEECSA MEMBERSRobert J. AumannNobel Prize Winner in EconomicsThe Role of Incentives in the World Financial Crisis.......................................................................28

МЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ВАЛЮТНАЯ СИСТЕМА: НОВАЯ КОНФИГУРАЦИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ И МОНЕТАРНОЙ ВЛАСТИTHE INTERNATIONAl MONETARY SYSTEM: NEW CONFIGURATION OF THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY POWERRichard N. Cooper A Future for the SDR?.....................................................................................................................31Herbert Grubel Regional Monetary Unions: The Path to a Global Currency............................................................36Warren CoatsA Global Currency for a Global Economy: Getting from Here to There..........................................38Domingo Cavallo Could the Dollar Era End in Global Inflation?...................................................................................43James W. DeanWill the Periphery Poison the Core?................................................................................................45Judy SheltonToward a Common Currency Linked by Gold..................................................................................49Нуриля КучуковаМетоды преодоления финансовых кризисов и посткризисное развитие экономики Казахстана..................................................................................53Nurilya KuchukovaMethods of Overcoming of Financial Crisesand Post Crisis Development of Economy of Kazakhstan................................................................57

СОДЕРЖАНИЕ

Yung Chul ParkPerspectives of East Asia’s Emerging Economies..........................................................................61Серик АхановНациональная финансовая архитектура и региональные валютные механизмы..................66Serik AkhanovNational Financial Architecture and Regional Currency Mechanisms............................................71

ПЕРСОНАPERSONAТимур Кулибаев...........................................................................................................................75Timur Kulibayev.............................................................................................................................78

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ОСОБЕННОСТИ ТУРИЗМА В СОВРЕМЕННОМ МИРЕ ECONOMIC PECUlIARITIES OF TOURISM IN THE MODERN WORlDКайрат Закирьянов, Владимир Вуколов Анализ проблем экономического обоснования туров по территории Республики Казахстан..........................................................................................80Kairat Zakiryanov, Vladimir VukolovThe Analysis of Economic Rationale Problems of the Tours Around the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan........................................................................82

ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИВ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНО-АЗИАТСКОМ РЕГИОНЕENSURING FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAl ASIAWilliam H. MeyersPrice Outlook and Volatility in Global Grain Markets: Policies and Other Factors...........................84

ИННОВАЦИОННЫЙ КОНГРЕССINNOVATIVE CONGRESSАйдын Кульсеитов, Тимур ШалабаевИнновационный конгресс: Казахстан на перекрестке Востока и Запада................................85Aidyn Kulseitov, Timur ShalabayevInnovative Congress: Kazakhstan at the Crossroads of East and West.........................................87Peter Heydebreck Characteristics of SME-friendly Innovation Systems.......................................................................89Baurzhan Isabekov Industrial Map of Intensive Development of the Industry.................................................................93

ПАРТНЕР АЕЭКУEECSA PARTNERМихаил ФедоровО вхождении УрГЭУ в мировую образовательную систему....................................................101Mikhail FedorovAbout Entering of USUE Into the Global Educational System.......................................................104

СОДЕРЖАНИЕ

ЗЕЛЕНЫЙ РОСТ – ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ПОСТ-КИОТОGREEN GROWTH – PROSPECTS OF POST-KYOTO Нургали АшимПриветственное слово гостям и участникам сессии «Зеленый рост – перспективы пост-Киото».......................................................................................106Nurgali AshimWelcome Speech to the Guests and Participants of the Session “Green Growth – Prospects of Post-Kyoto”..................................................................................109Rajendra PachauriTranscript of the Video Message to the Participants of the Session«Green Growth - Prospects of Post-Kyoto»..................................................................................112Rae Kwon Chung“Reforms - Obtaining Double Dividends as a Promotion of Green Growth”...................................114Бахыт ЕсекинаКонцептуальные основы модели «зеленого роста».................................................................116Bakhyt YessekinaConceptual Bases of «Green Growth» Model...............................................................................119Aida Karazhanova Europe-Asia-Pacific “Green Bridge” Partnership Programme (EAP GBPP) of Astana «Green Bridge» initiative (AGBI): Operational Mechanism (OM)..................................................121

ТНК И МЫ: ДРУЗЬЯ ИЛИ ВРАГИ?TNCS AND US: FRIENDS OR ENEMIES?Gengshu Miao Foreign Experience.......................................................................................................................122William Veale Kazakhstan: Land of Opportunity for the 21st Century Intelligent Investor...................................123Tagi Sagafi-NejadSustainability in Academia, Business and International Organizations..........................................126

ФОРМИРОВАНИЕ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ЭНЕРГОЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ СТРАТЕГИИ ДЛЯ ВСЕМИРНОГО САММИТА ПО УСТОЙЧИВОМУ РАЗВИТИЮ «РИО+20» В 2012 ГОДУFORMING OF GlOBAl ENERGY-ECOlOGICAl STRATEGY FOR THE WORlD SUMMIT ON THE STABlE DEVElOPMENT «RIO+20» IN 2012Alex Ignatiev Nanostructured Thin-Film Solid Oxide Fuel Cell: An Efficient and Clean Future Energy Source...131Валерий Кушлин Принципы энергоэкологического развития на ХХI век.............................................................134Valery KushlinPrinciples of Energy and Ecology Development for XXI Century.................................................138Юрий Яковец Долгосрочная стратегия энергоэкологического партнерства цивилизаций...........................141Yury YakovetsLong-Term Strategy of Energy-Ecological Partnership of Civilizations.........................................150

Ассоциация «Евразийский экономический клуб ученых»

Ассоциация «Евразийский экономический клуб ученых» (АЕЭКУ) создана в июне 2008 года с целью реализации инициативы Президента Республики Казахстан Н.А. Назарбаева о создании Евразийского клуба ученых, озвученной на Санкт-Петербургском эко-номическом форуме в июне 2007 года.

За годы деятельности членами АЕЭКУ стали научные организации, ученые-экономисты и практики из более чем 60 стран.

Миссией АЕЭКУ является объединение усилий ученых-экономистов и практиков, представителей об-щественности и международных организаций для ре-шения вопросов экономического развития и содейст-вия экономическому, социальному прогрессу мирового сообщества.

АЕЭКУ создает условия для всестороннего обме-на идеями, опытом, знаниями в организации и управ-лении научной деятельностью, а также содействует привлечению потенциальных инвесторов и заказчиков для активизации инновационной деятельности и реа-лизации социально-экономических проектов.

АЕЭКУ, являясь основным организатором Аста-нинского экономического форума, в целях значитель-ного вклада в мировую экономику, обеспечивает мак-симальное вовлечение заинтересованных сторон для проведения диалога между наукой и бизнесом.

«Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists» Association

«Eurasian economic club of scientists» Association (EECSA) was established in June 2008 with the aim of the initiative of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan N.A. Nazarbayev on establishment of the Eurasian Club of scientists announced at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June 2007.

Scientific organizations, economists and practitioners from over than 60 countries are the members of the EECSA.

Mission of EECSA is combine efforts of scientists, economists and practitioners, civil society and international organizations to address issues of economic development and promote economic and social progress of the world community.

EECSA is create of conditions for a full exchange of ideas, experience and knowledge in organization and management of scientific activities, as well as to assists in attracting potential investors and customers to enhance innovation and implementation of socio-economic projects.

EECSA, being the main organizer of the Astana Economic Forum, in order to significantly contribute to the global economy, provides the maximum involvement of stakeholders for a dialogue between science and business.

8

АКТУАЛЬНО

IV АСТАНИНСКИЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ ФОРУМ: В ФОКУСЕ СОБЫТИЙ

В молодой столице Казахстана 3-4 мая 2011 года на IV Астанинском экономическом фору-ме представителями политических и деловых кругов, ведущими учеными-экономистами бу-дут обсуждены вопросы в области экономики и финансов. На решение каких глобальных про-блем будет направлен Форум рассказал Бахыт Султанов, помощник Президента Республики Казахстан, Председатель Координационного Cовета Ассоциации «Евразийский экономичес-кий клуб ученых».

“Eurasian economic review”: Бахыт Турлыха-нович, в начале мая в Астане должен состоять-ся Экономический форум. Каких результатов Вы ждете от IV Астанинского экономическо-го форума? Какое из трех основных направле-ний глобальной экономики - «Глобальная эко-номика и финансы», «Бизнес и инвестиции» и «Общество и устойчивое развитие», - заплани-рованных для серьезного обсуждения на Фору-ме, Вы считаете приоритетным, и почему?

Бахыт Султанов: IV Астанинский экономичес-кий форум является международной диалоговой площадкой, созданной для выработки механизмов

развития глобальной валютно-финансовой системы, содействия развитию бизнеса, социальной сферы, интеграционных процессов, международного сотруд-ничества и привлечения инвестиций.

От Форума ожидаются заключение договоров и меморандумов между казахстанскими и зарубеж-ными организациями, привлечение инвестиций в ре-альный и банковский сектора.

Ежегодным итогом Форума является Откры-тое письмо с рекомендациями для лидеров стран-участниц G20.

Все три основных направления будут широко об-суждаться на всех мероприятиях Форума, при этом основной темой станет обсуждение вопросов совер-шенствования мировой финансовой архитектуры. Здесь планируется достижение практических резуль-татов, которые станут полезной пищей для размыш-ления на очередном саммите G20.

“EER”: Астанинский экономический форум стал одним из главных событий своего рода. По Вашему мнению, какое место занимает Аста-нинский экономический форум среди подобных аналогов в мире, в чем, на Ваш взгляд, заключа-ется особенность Астанинского экономического форума, выделяющее его из подобных ему ме-роприятий?

Б.С.: Астанинский экономический форум за-нимает достойное место среди аналогичных фору-мов, т.к. это мероприятие позволяет собирать авто-ритетных политиков, видных ученых-экономистов, представителей бизнеса для обсуждения и решения глобальных экономических проблем, по своему мас-штабу и уровню не имеющее прецедентов во всем нашем регионе, а по охвату затронутых тем и раз-работке рекомендаций достойно занимает лидирую-щие позиции в мире.

С одной стороны, особенность Астанинского экономического форума, на мой взгляд, заключа-ется в том, что объединение практиков, ученых и бизнесменов делает его содержательным и резуль-тативным. Открытая многосторонняя платформа Астанинского экономического форума позволяет ее участникам обсудить и выработать свое видение решения насущных проблем дальнейшего развития мировой экономики. Форум объединяет делегации многих стран мира, видных политических деятелей, известных ученых, лауреатов Нобелевской премии, представителей крупных международных корпора-

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ций, финансовых институтов, а также представите-лей реального сектора экономики.

С другой стороны, действует Виртуальный фо-рум, где до проведения ежегодного форума генери-руются востребованные политике, бизнесу и науке идеи, предложения, статьи и комментарии граждан со всего мира. В этом, конечно, уникальность Аста-нинского форума. Только за шесть месяцев своей работы Виртуальный форум посетили более 180000 человек. На данной платформе регулярно публику-ются материалы, проводятся дебаты, опросы на раз-личные актуальные темы. Таким образом, создается своеобразная социальная сеть Астанинского эконо-мического форума, которая постепенно растет как в количественном, так и в географическом плане в сети Интернет.

“EER”: С каждым годом статус Астанинско-го экономического форума повышается среди аналогичных форумов и наблюдается его пос-тоянный прогресс. На III Форуме было более 3000 участников, среди них высокопоставленные и авторитетные деятели политики, представители бизнеса и науки. А в этом году какой количест-венный и качественный состав участников Bы ожидаете?

Б.С.: В Форуме примут участие свыше 5000 че-ловек из более чем 80 стран мира. Среди основных спикеров Форума – 7 Нобелевских лауреатов, а имен-но Джон Нэш, Роберт Манделл, Джеймс Миррлис и другие, бывшие и действующие главы государств, такие как бывший Президент Боливии Хорхе Кирога и бывший Президент Хорватии Степан Месич, минист-ры, академики, руководители центральных банков, представители бизнес-элиты, и другие известные личности, а также студенты из казахстанских и зару-бежных крупных вузов, которые также будут вовлече-ны в работу Форума.

“EER”: Какую роль играет Астанинский эко-номический форум для растущего престижа Казахстана как страны, способной организовы-вать и проводить такие важные события миро-вого уровня? На Ваш взгляд, какую пользу он принесет в целом Казахстану?

Б.С.: Безусловно, проведение Астанинского экономического форума с участием представителей всех континентов, будет способствовать повышению имиджа Казахстана как страны-организатора круп-ных событий мирового уровня.

Примером того, что Астанинский экономический форум играет важную роль для растущего престижа Казахстана как страны способной организовывать и проводить мероприятия мирового уровня могут слу-жить результаты Форума 2010 г., в частности то, что в рамках данного Форума были подписаны Меморан-

думы и Соглашения о сотрудничестве, достигнуты Соглашения с Европейским Инвестиционным Бан-ком о финансировании инвестиционных проектов на сумму 1,5 млрд. евро.

Помимо привлечения инвестиций в Казахстан, Форум также вносит вклад в развитие образования и науки, которое является ключевым звеном в им-плементации стратегии роста нашего государства. Осознавая сей факт, в рамках Форума мы объеди-ним опыт и профессионализм лауреатов Нобелевс-кой премии и других не менее известных ученых-экономистов, чьи знания и опыт внесут огромный вклад в развитие образования и науки Республики Казахстан. Данная возможность позволит профес-сорско-преподавательскому составу Казахстанских вузов получить ценную информацию для их даль-нейшей преподавательской практики, а для студен-тов слушание таких лекций может стать хорошим стимулом для проведения исследований и дальней-шего развития своих профессиональных навыков.

“EER”: В связи с ситуацией на Ближнем Востоке, вытекающим из этого повышения цены на нефть, проблем продовольственной безопасности, снижения туристической привле-кательности, многие эксперты опасаются зна-чительного ухудшения состояния мировой эко-номики. Будут ли обсуждаться данные вопросы в ходе предстоящего Астанинского экономичес- кого форума?

Б.С.: Текущая ситуация на Ближнем Востоке способствует росту цен на сырье, снижает туристи-ческую привлекательность региона, а также глубоко отражается на общей картине продовольственной безопасности. Данные факторы незамедлительно повлияли на развитие региона и мировой экономики в целом. Учитывая важность Форума и его роль на международной арене, а также тот факт, что одной из его основных задач является решение глобаль-ных экономических проблем путем широкого диало-га, панельные сессии форума будут полностью по-священы решению столь важных экономических и социальных последствий.

Важными аспектами остаются развитие аль-тернативной энергетики, «зеленого роста», которые найдут свое отражение на сессиях Форума в свете прошлых событий в Мексиканском заливе, а также текущей ситуации в Японии.

“EER”: Туризм стал неотъемлемой частью экономики многих стран мира. В Казахстане ту-ризм был включен в программу форсированного индустриально-инновационного развития. Чем АЭФ может способствовать мировому туризму и казахстанскому туризму в частности? Будет ли Форум интересен для признанных авторитетов в

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области туризма как площадка для обсуждения проблемных вопросов отрасли?

Б.С.: Астанинский экономический форум являет собой идеальную платформу для обсуждения на-сущных вопросов и проблем, с которыми сталкива-ются все страны мира. В этом году в рамках форума будет проходить сессия «Экономические особеннос-ти туризма в современном мире». На сессии будут обсуждаться вопросы туризма, не только присущие Казахстану, но и туризму во всем мире, о чем свиде-тельствует состав спикеров данной сессии, среди ко-торых представители 25 стран, таких как Германия, Франция, США, Китай, Мексика, Швеция и многие другие. Кроме того, в работе сессии примет участие Генеральный Секретарь Всемирной Туристской Ор-ганизации ООН господин Талеб Рифаи.

У каждой страны есть свои проблемы развития индустрии туризма. Скажем, у Испании, развитой ев-ропейской страны, принимающей туристов со всех концов мира, возникают такие вопросы, как дивер-сификация данной отрасли, расширение предостав-ляемых туристических услуг, тогда как у развиваю-щихся стран с большим туристическим потенциалом возникают проблемы с качеством предоставляемых услуг, развития инфраструктуры и т.д.

Одним словом, состав участников сессии позво-лит обсудить весь спектр вопросов туризма с раз-личных точек зрения представленных стран Европы, Азии, Северной и Южной Америки. Кроме того, пла-нируется заключение соглашений, меморандумов о сотрудничестве между казахстанскими и зарубежны-ми туристическими организациями.

“EER”: На II-III АЭФ активно обсуждался воп-

рос о создании новой мировой валюты в гло-бальной финансовой системе. Данный вопрос наиболее остро встал в период мирового фи-нансового кризиса, более того, дискуссия про-должается в глобальных масштабах, о чем сви-детельствует председательство саммита G20 во Франции, ключевой темой обсуждения которо-го является создание «Нового Бреттон-Вудса». Будет ли данная инициатива, поддерживае-мая Президентом Назарбаевым и Президентом Саркози, обсуждаться на предстоящем Форуме?

Б.С.: Действительно, вопрос о мировой валют-ной системе активно обсуждался на II и III АЭФ. На очередном четвертом форуме эта тема займет одно из главных мест. В июле 2010 года на III Астанинском экономическом форуме во время своего выступле-ния Президент Республики Казахстан Нурсултан Абишевич Назарбаев отметил, что настало время создания новой финансовой архитектуры, ядром ко-торой должна стать глобальная система регулирова-ния надзора за финансовыми рынками.

Еще в 2008 году, Нурсултан Абишевич призвал к введению мировой валюты, которая могла бы функ-ционировать независимо от любой национальной валюты (например, доллар США, фунт стерлингов, японская иена) или региональной валюты (евро или франки КФА) и служить в качестве единицы изме-рения для товарных рынков с целью уменьшения спекуляций с ценными бумагами при операциях на валютных и биржевых рынках.

Но в то время, как некоторые сторонники де-нежной реформы приветствуют разовые операции, такие как модернизация СДР в качестве основного денежного измерителя, другие, в качестве наиболее реалистичного подхода, выдвигают идею повторного введения золотого стандарта. Нурсултан Абишевич Назарбаев, Президент Франции Николя Саркози и многие мировые лидеры являются сторонниками данной модели.

Идею Президента о введении единой мировой валюты поддержал Лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике Роберт Манделл, который стал основным организатором центрального мероприятия IV Аста-нинского экономического форума Панельной сессии «Международная валютная система: Новая конфигу-рация экономической и монетарной власти», которая пройдет при поддержке Обновленного Бреттон-Вуд-ского комитета.

Во многом сессия будет посвящена вопросам глобального характера по усовершенствованию и изменению мировой финансовой парадигмы, валют-но-финансовой системы и необходимости ее изме-нения, будут глубоко затронуты вопросы введения альтернативных, региональных и мировой валют.

“EER”: Помимо этих важных направлений Форума, какие еще вопросы будут обсуждаться? Какие значимые мероприятия будут проводить-ся в его рамках?

Б.С.: Главным вопросом на сегодняшний день для стран Центральной Азии является продо- вольственная безопасность. Обострение мировой продовольственной проблемы в XXI веке обуслов-лено, главным образом, более высокими темпами роста населения по сравнению с темпами роста производства, а также глобальным изменением климата. В рамках IV Астанинского экономического форума состоится панельная сессия «Обеспечение продовольственной безопасности в Центрально- Азиатском регионе». В работе сессии примут участие Генеральный Директор Продовольственной сельско-хозяйственной Организации ООН (FAO) Жак Диуф, представители государственных органов, стран Центрально-Азиатского региона, международные аналитики и эксперты в области продовольствен-ной безопасности, институты развития, Всемирный

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Банк, Организация экономического сотрудничества и развития (ОЭСР), представители стран-членов Таможенного союза, крупные международные и отечественные отраслевые общественные объеди-нения.

АО «Фонд национального благосостояния «Самрук-Казына» организует круглый стол по воп-росам государственного регулирования в секторе экономики и модернизации квази-государственного сектора для развития экономического потенциала страны. Спикерами круглого стола выступят Лауре-аты Нобелевской премии Джеймс Мирлис и Джон Нэш, а также член Бундестага, экс-министр экономи-ки и технологий Германии Микаэль Глос и другие.

Также планируется проведение Евразийского де-лового конгресса, который будет направлен на рас-ширение взаимовыгодных торгово-экономических связей и развитие инвестиционного сотрудничества на евразийском пространстве. Спикеры Конгресса: Хосе де Венеция, почетный Президент Нефтяной ассоциации Филиппин, экс-спикер Палаты предста- вителей Конгресса Филиппин; Мушахид Хусейн, Генеральный секретарь Пакистанской Мусульманс-кой лиги; Рихард Шенц, вице-президент Австрийской федеральной экономической палаты и другие.

С целью подписания соглашений и меморанду-мов о взаимодействии между АО «Национальный инновационный фонд» и международными иннова-ционными институтами, запуска совместных проек-тов в области инноваций 3 мая планируется провести выставку индустриально-инновационных проектов и Инновационный конгресс.

Программа Инновационного Конгресса включает обсуждение межгосударственной политики, интегра-ционных процессов и механизмов международного инновационного сотрудничества. Конгресс соберет ключевых участников национальной инновационной системы: технопарков, бизнес-инкубаторов и непос-редственно бизнес-структур в области развития и внедрения инновационных технологий, а также не-посредственно разработчиков государственной по-литики по инновационному межгосударственному сотрудничеству.

Параллельно в рамках форума пройдут Инвес-тиционный форум «Astana Invest 2011» и семинар по вопросам конкурентоспособности, проводимый сов-местно с ВЭФ. Промышленники и предприниматели обсудят действия, направленные на расширение сотрудничества в сфере торгово-экономических свя-зей и создание взаимовыгодного инвестиционного климата на Евразийском пространстве, а также воп-

росы по взаимодействию в целях развития эконо- мики.

Кроме того, отдельные сессии отведены для рас- смотрения вопросов регионального развития, гло-бальной и региональной интеграции, повышения конкурентоспособности, поддержки МСБ, совер-шенствованию диалога Бизнес-вузы, а также роли транснациональных компаний в экономике стран.

Завершающим мероприятием дня станет «Диалог лидеров и советы Лауреатов Нобелевской премии» с целью выявления новых подходов по ре-гулированию экономики в посткризисный период, внедрению и обновлению моделей экономического развития и решения других актуальных задач.

“EER”: Астанинский экономический форум традиционно вырабатывает рекомендации для лидеров G20. Насколько применяются рекомен-дации форума в практике этих стран?

Б.С.: В программном документе G20, принятом на Саммите G20 в Сеуле, содержатся несколько клю-чевых пунктов, которые отражены в Рекомендациях для G20, разработанных по итогам III Астанинского экономического форума. Одним из таких пунктов является продвижение политики «зеленого роста» и внедрения экологически чистых инноваций, под-держка инфраструктуры, использование макропру-денциального регулирования.

С каждым годом проект рекомендаций для G20, которые оглашаются на Астанинском экономичес-ком форуме, становится все более значимым, о чем свидетельствует интерес международной об-щественности к рекомендациям. Так, в разработке рекомендаций для G20 по итогам IV Астанинского экономического форума примут участие лауреаты Нобелевской премии, представители международ-ных организаций, которые ранее были вовлечены в аналогичные проекты, такие как Обновленный Бреттон-Вудский комитет, Мадридский Клуб, Иссле-довательский Центр по G20 и многие другие.

Уверен, что вопросы, которые будут обсуждать-ся на форуме, найдут свое отражение и на саммите G-20 во Франции, ведь мы действительно сможем в одном документе объединить мнения Евразии, заокеанских стран и Исламского мира.

“EER”: Бахыт Турлыханович, благодарим за содержательную и интересную информацию. Желаем успехов и плодотворного проведения Форума.

Б.С.: Благодарю.

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IV ASTANA ECONOMIC FORUM: IN THE SPOTlIGHT

In the young capital of Kazakhstan the leading scientists, representatives of political and business circles will discuss issues of economics and finance at the IV Astana Economic Forum on May, 3-4, 2011. Bakhyt Sultanov, Aide to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Chairman of the Coordination Council of the “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists” Association will talk about what kind of problems the Forum will focus on solving.

«Eurasian economic review»: Mr. Sultanov, the Economic Forum is to be held in Astana in early May. What results do you expect from the IV Astana Economic Forum? Which of the three directions of the global economy – “Global Economics and Finance”, “Business and Investment” and “Society and Sustainable Development”- to be brought up for a serious discussion at the Forum do you consider a priority, and why?

Bakhyt Sultanov: The IV Astana Economic Forum is an international dialogue platform, created to design mechanisms for the development of the global financial system, promotion of business, social sphere, integration processes, international cooperation and attraction of investment.

We expect that during the Forum Kazakhstan’s and foreign organizations will sign contracts and memoranda, and we can attract investment in the real and the banking sector.

Annual result of the Forum is an Open Letter of recommendations for the leaders of the G20 member countries.

All three directions will be widely discussed at all Forum events, while the main topic will be discussion of improving the global financial architecture. It is planned to achieve practical results that will be useful food for thought at the next G20 Summit.

EER: The Astana Economic Forum has become one of the main events of its kind. In your opinion, what place does the Astana Economic Forum take among similar events in the world, what do you think is unique about the Astana Economic Forum and what distinguishes it from similar events?

Bakhyt Sultanov: The Astana Economic Forum ranks high among similar fora, because this event allows to bring together influential politicians, prominent scientists, economists, representatives of business to

discuss and solve global economic problems, on a scale and at a level, which have no precedents in our entire region, while the wide coverage of various topics and development of recommendations makes it one of the leading fora in the world.

On the one hand, what makes the Astana Economic Forum special is that it brings together practitioners, scientists and businessmen making it rich in content and effective. Open multilateral platform of the Astana Economic Forum enables its participants to discuss and develop their own vision of solving pressing problems of further development of the world economy. The Forum brings delegations of many countries, prominent politicians, outstanding scientists, Nobel Prize Laureates, representatives of international corporations, financial institutions and real sector of the economy.

On the other hand, the Virtual Forum generates ideas, suggestions, articles and comments from citizens from all over the world relevant for politics, business and science. And that’s where the uniqueness of the Astana Economic Forum lies. Only during six months of its work, the Virtual Forum was visited by more than 180,000 people. This platform allows publishing materials, conducting debates and polls on various pressing issues. As a result, a social network of the Astana Economic Forum is being created which is constantly growing in quantity and geographic coverage in Internet.

EER: Every year the status of the Astana Economic Forum is rising with a constant progress in comparison to similar fora. The III Forum was visited by more than 3000 participants, among them high-ranking and influential politicians, representatives of business and science. This year, what kind of participants do you expect in terms of rank and quantity?

Bakhyt Sultanov: The Forum will be visited by more than 5000 participants from more than 80 countries of the world. Among the main speakers of the Forum are 7 Nobel Prize Laureates, including John Nash, Robert Mundell, James Mirrless and others, former and incumbent heads of states, such as former President of Bolivia Jorge Quiroga and former President of Croatia Stjepan Mesic, ministers, academicians, governors of Central banks, representatives of business elite and other well-known figures, and also students of large Kazakhstan’s and foreign universities will be involved in the work of the Forum.

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EER: What role does the Astana Economic Forum play for the growing prestige of Kazakhstan as a country capable of organization and holding such important events at the world level? In your opinion, what benefits will it bring for Kazakhstan in general?

Bakhyt Sultanov: Certainly, holding the Astana Economic Forum visited by the representatives from all continents, will enhance the image of Kazakhstan as the host nation of major events of the world level.

An example of the fact that the Astana Economic Forum plays an important role for the growing prestige of Kazakhstan as the country capable of organization and holding world-class events can be results of the Forum of 2010, in particular the fact that during the Forum memoranda and agreements on cooperation have been signed, an agreement has been reached with the European Investment Bank on the financing of investment projects worth 1.5 billion euros.

In addition to attracting investment to Kazakhstan, the Forum also contributes to the development of education and science, which is a key element in implementing a growth strategy of our country. With this in mind, we will combine experience and professionalism of Nobel Prize Laureates and other equally eminent scientists and economists, whose knowledge and experience will make a huge contribution to the development of education and science of Kazakhstan. This opportunity will allow professors of Kazakhstan’s universities receive valuable information for their future teaching practices, and for students participating in such lectures can be a good incentive for research and further development of their professional skills.

EER: In connection with the situation in the Middle East, the consequent increase in oil prices, problems with food security, reduction of tourist attractiveness, many experts fear a significant deterioration of the global economy. Will these issues be discussed during the upcoming Astana Economic Forum?

Bakhyt Sultanov: The current situation in the Middle East contributes to higher prices of raw materials, reduces the tourist attractiveness of the region and deeply affects the overall food security. These factors immediately affected the development of the region and the world economy as a whole. Given the importance of the Forum and its role in the international arena, as well as the fact that one of its main tasks is to solve global economic problems through a broad dialogue, panel sessions of the Forum will be fully devoted to dealing with such important economic and social consequences.

The remaining important topics are development of alternative energy and green growth, which will be reflected in the sessions of the Forum in light of past events in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the current situation in Japan.

EER: Tourism has become an integral part of economies of many countries of the world. In Kazakhstan tourism has been included in the programme of forced industrial innovative development. How can the AEF contribute to the world tourism and tourism in Kazakhstan in particular? Will the Forum be of interest to recognized authorities in the area of tourism for discussion of the problems of this industry?

Bakhyt Sultanov: The Astana Economic Forum is an ideal platform for discussion of pressing issues and problems facing all countries of the world. This year one of the Forum’s sessions will be devoted to “Economic Peculiarities of Tourism in the Modern World”. This session will discuss the issues of tourism not only relevant for Kazakhstan but also for the whole world which can be evidenced by the fact that the speakers of this session represent 25 countries such as Germany, France, China, Mexico, Sweden and many others. Also Secretary-General of the World Tourism Organization Mr. Taleb Rifai will participate in this Session.

Each country has its own problems of development of the tourism industry. For example, Spain, a developed European country, hosting tourists from all over the world, faces issues such as diversification of the industry, the expansion of available travel services, while developing countries with large tourist potential face problems with the quality of services, infrastructure development, etc.

In short, the diversity of participants of the session will enable discussion of the full range of issues of tourism from various points of view of represented countries of Europe, Asia, North and South America. In addition, it is being planned to sign agreements, memoranda of cooperation between Kazakhstan’s and foreign tourist organizations.

EER: The II-III AEF actively discussed the issue of creating a new world currency in the global financial system. This issue arose most sharply during the global financial crisis, moreover, the debate continues on a global scale, as evidenced by the presidency of the G20 Summit in France, which has identified creation of “New Bretton Woods” as a key topic of discussion. Will this initiative supported by President Nazarbayev and President Sarkozy be discussed at the upcoming Forum?

Bakhyt Sultanov: Indeed, the world monetary system was actively discussed at the II and III AEF. At the next fourth Forum this topic will be one of the main ones. In July, 2010 during his speech at the III Astana Economic Forum the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev noted that it is time to create a new financial architecture, the core of which should be a global system of regulatory oversight of financial markets.

Back in 2008, Nursultan Nazarbayev called for introduction of a global currency, which would operate independently of any national currency (for example,

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U.S. dollar, pound sterling, Japanese yen) or a regional currency (euros or CFA francs) and serve as the unit of measurement for commodity markets to reduce speculation in securities transactions in the foreign exchange and stock markets.

But as some supporters of monetary reform welcome one-time operations, such as the modernization of the SDR as the principal monetary meter, others put forward the idea of re-introducing the gold standard as a more realistic approach. Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of France Nicolas Sarkozy and many world leaders are advocates of this model.

The idea of the President to introduce a single world currency was supported by the Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics Robert Mundell, who became the main organizer of the central event of the IV Astana Economic Forum - a panel session “International Monetary System: New Configuration of the Economic and Monetary Power”, which is supported by Reinventing Bretton-Woods Committee.

In many ways, the session will be devoted to global issues of improvement and change of the global financial paradigm, monetary and financial system and the need to change it, the issues of introducing alternative, regional and global currencies will be extensively discussed.

EER: In addition to these important directions of the Forum, what other issues will be discussed? What important events will take place?

Bakhyt Sultanov: The main issue today for the Central Asian countries is food security. Aggravation of the world food problem in the XXI century is due primarily to higher population growth compared with growth rates of production, as well as global climate change. Within the IV Astana Economic Forum there will be a panel session on “Ensuring Food Security in Central Asia”. The Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Jacques Diouf, representatives of the governments of the Central Asian region, international analysts and experts in the field of food security, development institutions, the World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), representatives of the member countries of the Customs Union, major international and domestic industry associations will take part in the work of this session.

“Sovereign Wealth Fund “Samruk-Kazyna” JSC organizes a round table devoted to the issues of the government regulation of sectors of economy and modernization of quasi-state sector to develop economic potential of the country. The speakers of the round table will include Nobel Prize Laureates James Mirrlees and John Nash, member of Bundestag, former Ministry of Economy and Technology Michael Glos and others.

Also the Eurasian Business Congress, which will be focused on the expansion of mutually beneficial trade and economic ties and development of investment cooperation in Eurasia, is planned to be held. The

speakers of the Congress will include Jose de Venecia, Honorary President of the Petroleum Association of the Phillipines, former Speaker of the House of Representatives; Mushahid Hussain, Secretary-General of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q; Richard Schenz, Vice-President of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber and others.

In order to sign agreements and memoranda of cooperation between the “National Innovation Fund” JSC and the international innovation institutions to launch joint start-up projects in the area of innovations, an exhibition of industrial innovation projects and Innovative Congress will be held on May, 3.

The programme of Innovative Congress will include a discussion of intergovernmental policy, integration processes and mechanisms for international innovation cooperation. The Congress will bring together key players of the national innovation system: technoparks, business incubators and business structures in the development and introduction of innovative technologies, as well as designers of government policy on innovative cross-border cooperation.

At the same time Investment Forum “Astana Invest 2011” and a seminar on Central Asia competitiveness outlook, organized in conjunction with the WEF will be held within the Forum. Industrialists and entrepreneurs will discuss steps to enhance cooperation in trade and economic relations and establishment of mutually beneficial investment climate in the Eurasian space, as well as issues of cooperation in the development of the economy.

In addition, separate sessions are reserved for the consideration of regional development issues, global and regional integration, competitiveness, SME support, improved dialogue between business and universities, and the role of multinational corporations in the economy.

The concluding event of the day will be “Dialogue of Leaders and Nobel Prize Laureates’ Advice”, which has a goal of identification of new approaches to regulate the economy in the post-crisis period, implementation and updating of models of economic development and addressing other pressing needs.

EER: The Astana Economic Forum traditionally develops recommendations for the G20 leaders. To what degree are Forum recommendations implemented in the practices of these countries?

Bakhyt Sultanov: The G20 programme document adopted at the G20 Summit in Seoul contains a few key points reflected in the recommendations for the G20, developed based on the results of the III Astana Economic Forum. Among such points are promotion of green growth policies and introduction of environmentally friendly innovations, support of infrastructure, use of macro-prudential regulation.

Every year the project of recommendations for the G20, announced at the Astana Economic Forum, is becoming increasingly important, as evidenced

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by the interest of the international community to the recommendations. Thus, Nobel Prize Laureates, representatives of international organizations that have previously been involved in similar projects, such as Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, Club de Madrid, and G20 Research Center and many others will participate in developing recommendations for the G20 based on the results of the IV Astana Economic Forum.

I am confident that issues which will be discussed at the Forum will be reflected at the G20 Summit in France, because we can really unite opinions of Eurasia, overseas countries and the Islamic world.

EER: Mr. Sultanov, thank you for comprehensive and interesting information. We wish you success and a fruitful Forum.

Bakhyt Sultanov: Thank you.

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Н.А. НАЗАРБАЕВ – ИНИЦИАТОР И ОРГАНИЗАТОР СИСТЕМНОГО РЕШЕНИЯ ГЛОБАЛЬНЫХ ПРОБЛЕМ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ

Анатолий Спицын, д.э.н., профессор,Вице-президент Российской академии естественных наук

В публикации дан науч-ный анализ инициатив Пре-зидента Республики Казах-стан Нурсултана Абишевича Назарбаева. Предложения но-сят системный характер решения глобальных проб-лем по становлению новой модели мировой экономики и адекватной финансовой ар-хитектуры.

Общепризнано, что именно Нурсултан Абише-вич Назарбаев первым из политиков мирового мас-штаба взял на себя смелость честно и публично дать оценку глобального финансово-экономического кризиса, показать миру принципиальную несправед-ливость текущего устройства мировых финансов, и более того, проявил «дерзость ответственности» своими настойчивыми и последовательными при-зывами к дискуссии и совместному поиску принци-пиальных путей реформирования мировой финансо-вой и экономической систем. Это войдет в историю мировой экономической мысли как инициатива, кото-рая высветила одну из самых актуальных современ-ных проблем и, мы надеемся, послужила основой для фундаментальных реформ мирового экономи-ческого устройства в пользу более справедливой, гуманной и демократической модели.

Президент Республики Казахстан Н.А.Назарбаев в своих разработках исходит из того, что финансово-экономический кризис 2007-2010 гг. и текущий кризис выявили основное системное противоречие миро-вого экономического устройства – несоответствие глобальной валютной системы потребностям обще-ственного развития. Для преодоления мировых кри-зисов в мире применяются меры, которые способны скорректировать ситуацию в экономике, не устраняя его главных причин. Большинство известных опреде-лений кризиса характеризуют его разные стороны, но не раскрывают суть и глубину происходящих про-цессов в экономике, ее регулирования и определе-ния политики социально-экономического развития в современных условиях.

На этом фоне по-настоящему прорывными вы-глядят предложения Президента Республики Казах-

стан Н.А. Назарбаева относительно перестройки су-ществующей мировой экономической и финансовой системы. По его мнению, в качестве мировой валюты непродуктивно использовать национальную валюту любого государства мира. Отдельный мировой за-кон мог бы определить ее принципиально наднаци-ональный межгосударственный статус и принципы эмиссии специально созданным всемирным Эмис-сионным центром. Такая система могла бы стать основой первой в истории человечества абсолютно законной и легитимной мировой валюты. И перехо-дом на новую валюту должны заняться главные ми-ровые политические и экономические органы, в том числе Совет Безопасности Организации Объединен-ных Наций (ООН), специальная сессия ООН, «боль-шая восьмерка», «большая двадцатка», Всемирные саммиты и экономические форумы в Давосе, Санкт-Петербурге, Астане и др.

Озвученная на II Астанинском экономическом форуме в марте 2009 года идея Н.А. Назарбаева об обновлении валютно-финансовой системы, нашла положительный отклик у многих экспертов, финан-систов и политиков. Лауреат Нобелевской премии Р. Манделл высказал мнение о том, что идея о еди-ной валюте «правильная», странам большой двад-цатки необходимо «ее изучить и сформировать Ко-митет МВФ» по работе над созданием такой мировой валюты. В свою очередь Э. Фелпс, лауреат Нобе-левской премии, полностью поддержал идею Прези-дента Казахстана о «введении региональных и кон-тинентальных валют», которая позволит «странам укрепить свои экономики и снизить их зависимость от негативных явлений извне». Высокую значимость предложения Нурсултана Назарбаева отметили и в российских академических кругах. Известные уче-ные-экономисты академики РАН Олег Богомолов, Николай Петраков и Сергей Глазьев направили Пре-зиденту Казахстана письмо, в котором подчеркнули ценность, своевременность и полноту предлагаемых казахстанским лидером мер по выходу из глобально-го кризиса.

Предложенная идея Президента Республики Казахстан значительно способствовала широкому обсуждению вопросов, рассмотренных на саммите «Большой двадцатки» в апреле 2009 года. У боль-шинства его участников сформировалось понимание

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того, что нынешняя система неадекватна и содержит в себе слишком много рисков, связанных с односто-ронними действиями тех государств, которые отвеча-ют за выпуск резервных валют. К сторонникам этого положения присоединилась и ООН, опубликовав до-клад, в котором предложено создать новую валюту. В ООН считают, что страны должны учредить миро-вой резервный банк, который эмитировал бы новую валюту и осуществлял мониторинг обменных курсов валют стран-учредителей1.

Таким образом, проблема создания новой фи-нансовой архитектуры вышла из разряда гипотети-ческих идей и дискутируется на мировом уровне. Все больше стран высказывают мнение о необходимос-ти кардинального реформирования и смены сущест-вующего порядка, построенного на одновалютных принципах международных расчетов и решения всех финансовых и экономических вопросов в пользу более справедливой системы наднациональной ре-зервной валюты.

В этом контексте необходимы новые принципы, отражающие направления развития Евразийской ин-теграции, которые должны учитывать посткризисные реалии и тенденции развития мира на средне- и дол-госрочную перспективу. Интеграция Европы и Азии будет иметь положительное влияние на экономичес-кое развитие и социальное благополучие не только Евразийского субконтинента, но и всего посткризис-ного мира. С этих позиций особую значимость име-ет выступление Президента Республики Казахстан Н.А.Назарбаева на саммите ОБСЕ 1 декабря 2010г., его мысли об обязательных условиях системного решения социально-экономических кризисных про-блем. Поскольку экономический прагматизм явля-ется краеугольным камнем системы безопасности в XXI веке, заслуживают поддержки усилия Европей-ского союза по стабилизации экономики. При этом «восьмерка» и «двадцатка», обсуждая проблемы преодоления глобального финансового кризиса, ве-дут поиск новой конфигурации мировой экономики и реформирования валютной системы. Однако про-цесс этот пока еще идет медленно.

Отмечая высокий уровень теоретических и практических положений по становлению новой модели мировой экономики, важно отметить, что будучи решительным в принципиальной плоскости, Н.А. Назарбаев проявил удивительную прозорли-вость, гибкость и мудрый реализм в выборе конкрет-ных методов осуществления трансформационных процессов в Казахстане, нацеленных на форми-рование демократического устройства общества и эффективной экономики рыночного типа. Он реши-

тельно и своевременно предостерег против «лева-чества» и четко заявил – «хаос и анархия к рынку не ведут». Был выдвинут целый ряд конкретных, имею-щих научно-практическое значение предложений, касающихся перехода к эффективному государству. Решая проблемы становления новой государствен-ности в Казахстане, Н.А. Назарбаев всегда одновре-менно аналитически оценивал и то, что делалось у ближайших и дальних соседей, чутко и с опережени-ем улавливал общемировые тенденции.

Сложнейшие проблемы социально-экономичес-кой и политической трансформации общества требовали максимального напряжения, политиче-ской воли, в наивысшей степени государственного подхода, умения видеть перспективу в стратегии «Казахстан – 2030», рассчитывать последствия пред-принимаемых действий на несколько шагов вперед. Системные реформы в Казахстане, осуществляемые под руководством и при непосредственном участии Н.А. Назарбаева как политика, ученого и стратега, в исторически короткий период развития независимого государства имеют в целом высокие экономические и социальные результаты. К 1 января 2011 г. ВВП Казахстана на душу населения возрос за годы ре-форм в 12 раз и превысил 9 тыс. долл. США. Приз-навая достижения страны, ООН в 2009 году включи-ла Казахстан в категорию стран с высоким уровнем человеческого потенциала как неоспоримое свиде-тельство возросшего благосостояния казахстанцев.

Мировой финансово-экономический кризис по-влиял на темпы роста экономики Казахстана, но не остановил развитие. Накопленный экономический потенциал обеспечил устойчивость труднейших по-следних трех лет. Реализованы антикризисные меры по защите финансовой системы страны, системо-образующих банков, малого и среднего бизнеса, произошел небывалый рост «казахстанского содер-жания» в госзакупках национальных и транснацио-нальных компаний. Поддержка государства оказана агропромышленному комплексу, завершению доле-вого жилищного строительства. Благодаря успешной реализации программы «Дорожная карта–2009», в регионах страны реализованы 862 проекта по рекон-струкции ЖКХ, других важных объектов социальной сферы. Антикризисные меры осуществлялись под личным контролем Президента Республики Казах-стан Н.А. Назарбаева оперативно, публично. Миро-вой финансовый кризис повлиял на темпы роста экономики, но накопленный потенциал обеспечил устойчивость в трудных условиях последних трех лет. Сегодня Казахстан – состоявшееся государство с долгосрочными целями и приоритетами развития страны, эффективно выполняющее социальные обязательства перед народом.

Среди наиболее актуальных, животрепещущих для всего человечества проблем автором выдви-

1 Доклад о торговле и развитии, 2009 год. Обзор // Конференция ООН по торговле и развитию. ООН, Нью-Йорк и Женева, сентябрь 2009 год.

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гаются следующие: первая - энергоэкологический кризис, который затрудняет процесс создания сба-лансированной энергетической безопасности и сох-ранения окружающей среды; вторая – глобальный продовольственный кризис, который возник, несмот-ря на успехи сельского хозяйства в развитых стра-нах, и затронул судьбы сотен миллионов людей, особенно в Африке; третья – существующая система экономических отношений привела к резкой поляри-зации уровня доходов, к увеличению пропасти между малым числом богатых стран «золотого миллиарда» и большинством бедных стран, не имеющих необхо-димых ресурсов для развития экономики и обеспече-ния достойного уровня жизни своего населения.

Этими проблемами, отмечает Н.А.Назарбаев, далеко не ограничивается круг кризисных явлений. Уроки глобального финансового кризиса, начавшего-ся в 2007 г., свидетельствуют о том, что сложившаяся валютно-финансовая система, ориентированная на максимальное извлечение прибыли и на спекуляции на фондовых рынках, ведет к виртуализации капита-ла и его отрыву от реальной экономики.

Необходимо также отметить, что современный уровень развития науки, образования и культуры пока еще не отвечает реалиям новой исторической эпохи, задачам инновационного развития и требует радикального обновления социокультурной сферы. Вся система отношений глобального сообщества находится перед лицом новых вызовов, на которые должен быть дан соответствующий системный от-вет. Автор считает это важнейшей задачей ООН как единственного всеохватывающего глобального инс-титута, способного не только обеспечить диалог и партнерство стран и цивилизаций, но и преодолеть кризисы нового века.

Н.А. Назарбаев, сочетая управленческий и науч-ный подход, стремится всесторонне учитывать, что главное – устойчивость созидательных тенденций. В подтверждение вывода о том, что Казахстан всту-пил в полосу устойчивого экономического развития, когда экономический рост базируется на благопри-ятном инвестиционном климате, Казахстан привлек за годы реформ прямых иностранных инвестиций на сумму, которая составляет почти треть от вложений иностранного капитала во все страны СНГ. Экономи-ческие достижения Казахстана были бы немыслимы без внутриполитической стабильности и консолида-ции общества. Развитие современной экономики ни в коем случае не должно приходить в противоречие с этими стратегическими приоритетами.

Республика Казахстан активно интегрируется в мировое экономическое и политическое прост-ранство, не только ставит перед собой амбициозные цели, но также предлагает свои «ключи от кризи-

са», тем самым беря на себя долю ответственности за то, каким будет этот мир через пять, десять или тридцать лет. Как видим, эти положения представ-ляют большой политический, теоретический и прак-тический интерес, а выступления и предложения Н.А.Назарбаева последнего времени на мировых форумах и его важнейшие научные публикации но-сят программный характер. Важно отметить взве-шенную позицию Президента РК, который вполне правомерно считает, что в современных условиях непродуктивно искать крайних и виноватых. Сейчас важнее сосредоточиться на определении глубинных дефектов системы, породивших столь мощные ми-ровые катаклизмы, а главное – на поиске путей их полного устранения. Для этого необходим системный подход к радикальному обновлению мировой эконо-мики, становлению новой, по-иному построенной модели мировой экономики, политики и глобальной безопасности. Для этого потребуются колоссальные усилия всего мирового сообщества, мобилизация интеллектуальных и материальных ресурсов и не-малое время.

Предстоит выстроить радикально новую логику и выработать новые общие «правила движения» по этому переходу, который Н.А. Назарбаев условно на-зывает как мир глобального Транзита. Так, эмитенты мировой валюты не несут никакой ответственности ни перед кем из ее основных субъектов-пользовате-лей, ни перед мировым сообществом в целом. Весь механизм новой мировой валютной системы важно строить на основе системы опережающего монито-ринга грядущих вызовов века, мира и человечества. Новая система мировой валюты должна стать сов-ременной и бездефектной, быть продуктивным ис-точником устойчивого развития мировой экономики и процветания общества.

Механизмы реализации новой модели глобаль-ной экономики взаимообусловлены с масштабной интеграцией. Казахстан вместе со своими партнера-ми по региональной и континентальной интеграции (СНГ, ЕврАзЭС, ЦАС и ШОС) уже давно находится в русле глобального тренда первой четверти XXI века – формирования региональных интеграци-онных объединений. Все они, но в разной степени готовности, имеют возможность стать региональны-ми зонами «транзитала» со своими эмиссионными центрами межгосударственных наднациональных расчетно-валютных единиц. Страны ЕврАзЭС и ШОС, создавая Евразийский центр транзита, могут стать инициаторами ускоренного развития тран-зитных валют и «транзитала» не только в Евразии, других континентах, но и во всем мире, скоордини-рованно продвигая глобальную инициативу плана радикального обновления (ПРО) в международных,

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мировых и всемирных органах, организациях и эко-номических форумах.

Начало XXI века, вопреки надеждам на улуч-шение мирового порядка, оказалось насыщенным угрозами и вызовами, которые ученые обозначают как общецивилизационный кризис. Он явно является системным, поскольку мы наблюдаем одновремен-ные признаки кризисов производственного, энергети-ческого, экологического, продовольственного, соци-ального, и даже военно-политического. Но в основе всего лежит глобальный финансово-экономический кризис, порожденный в том числе и дефектами ми-ровой валютно-финансовой архитектуры. И негатив-ные проявления будут только нарастать до тех пор, пока не будут устранены главные причины глобаль-ного кризиса мировой экономики.

Известный экономист Джозеф Стиглиц, лауре-ат Нобелевской премии призывает страны Азии к созданию новой наднациональной всемирной ре-зервной системы и прямо указал на Азию как на место практического начала этого процесса. Можно серьезно поддержать эту идею, например, силами СВМДА – Совещания по взаимодействию и мерам доверия в Азии. Двадцать ведущих стран Азии, вхо-дящих в эту организацию, уже на своем ближайшем саммите большой азиатской двадцатки (А-20) впол-не могли бы принять решение о создании рабочей группы по разработке Азиатской наднациональной электронной расчетной единицы. Это был бы абсо-лютно естественный шаг стран А-20 в русле едино-го мирового тренда создания региональных валют-но-расчетных единиц (экю, евро, акю, динар, сукре, афро), как закономерного процесса развития здоро-вых частей мировой экономики.

Н.А. Назарбаев отмечает необходимость объе-динения усилий стран по разработке и введению в обращение наднациональной расчетно-платежной единицы (а затем и валюты) принципиально нового класса. Радикальная новизна этого пути состоит в сознательном и целенаправленном переходе от ста-рых валютных единиц иллюзорной оценки стоимости – к новым инструментам реальной оценки истинной ценности товаров и услуг.

Определение нового класса региональных и ми-ровых финансовых инструментов, идущих на смену старых валют, включает в себя следующие параме-тры: во-первых, это – новая законная мировая валю-та в отличие от старой резервной валюты; во-вторых, это – новая демократическая валюта, эмитируемая демократическим эмиссионным центром в интере-сах всего человечества; в-третьих, это – инструмент реального измерения «истинной» стоимости, в от-личие от иллюзорной оценки «мнимой» стоимости; в-четвертых, это – новый финансовый инструмент

контролируемого производства прибыли, в отличие от инструментов бесконтрольного ее накопления; в-пятых, это – новый финансовый инструмент, целе-полагающей конкуренции и прибыли, служащий еди-ным долгосрочным целям развития стран, народов, мира и человечества, в отличие от старых инстру-ментов конкуренции и прибыли, служащих эгоизму, наживе и жадности.

Выступая на 62-й Сессии Генеральной Ассам-блеи ООН 25 сентября 2007 г. Н.А. Назарбаев пред-ложил разработать глобальную энергоэкологическую стратегию и обсудить ее на Всемирном Саммите по устойчивому развитию в 2012 году. После этого уче-ными России, Казахстана и других стран были прове-дены комплексные исследования по анализу миро-вых тенденций, построению энергоэкономического баланса и динамики энергопотребления для реше-ния энергоэкологических проблем, стоящих перед человечеством. Кроме того, были исследованы ме-тоды достижения баланса между экономическими и технико-технологическими возможностями, с одной стороны, и требуемыми энергоэкологическими пара-метрами – с другой.

Н.А. Назарбаев дал оценку результатов иссле-дований по научным основам формирования эко-номически и социально эффективной Глобальной энергоэкологической стратегии на период до 2050 года и дальнейшую перспективу. На основе анали-за действующей ситуации и тенденций обобщены основные параметры глобального экономического развития и соответствующего энергетического обес-печения. Показаны пути согласованного использо-вания традиционных и возобновляемых источников энергии с применением новейших технологий. Это позволит реализовать экологически безопасный по-ток энергии, достаточный для решения социально-экономических проблем человечества и обеспече-ния бессрочной энергоэкономической безопасности на основе сценариев достижения экологически и со-циально эффективного состояния мировой экономи-ки и энергетики.

Таким образом, современный новый этап раз-вития общества – это «время глобальных страте-гических решений» и «радикального обновления глобального сообщества» в условиях становления новой модели функционирования мировой экономи-ки. Волны глобальных кризисов в различных сфе-рах, охвативших планету с конца ХХ века и в начале XIX столетия, заставляют все глубже задумываться о судьбе человечества. Возникает необходимость объединения усилий стран и народов в поисках пу-тей совместного выживания и процветания.

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N.A. NAZARBAYEV – ORIGINATOR AND ORGANIZER OF THE SYSTEM DECISION OF THE GlOBAl PROBlEMS OF WORlD ECONOMY

By Anatoliy Spitsyn, Doctor of Economics, Professor,Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences

A scientific analysis of the President’s Nursultan A. Nazarbayev initiatives is given in this publication. These proposals are systemic solutions to global problems in the formation of a new model of global economy and adequate financial architecture.

It is well-known that it is Nursultan A. Nazarbayev who was the first from the politicians worldwide, who has taken a liberty upon himself and publicly gave an estimation of the world financial-economic crisis. He wanted to show the world the fundamental unfairness of the current arrangement of global finance and moreover he showed the “audacity of responsibility” for his persistent and consistent appeals to discuss and search for the fundamental ways of reforming of the world financial and economic systems. It will become a history of the world economic idea as an initiative that highlighted one of the most urgent contemporary problems and hopefully was the basis for fundamental reforms of the world economic system in favor of more fair, humane and democratic model.

The President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev in his works presumes that financial and economic crisis of 2007-2010 and current crisis has revealed major systemic contradictions of the world economic constitution, namely a discrepancy of the global monetary system to the needs of social development. In order to overcome the global crisis, there are measures that can correct the situation in economy without eliminating its main causes. Most of the known definitions of the crisis characterize it from different sides, but do not disclosure the nature and depth of the processes occurring in the economy, regulation and policy-making socio-economic development in modern conditions.

The proposals of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev look real breakthrough regarding the restructuring of the existing global economic and financial systems. According to his opinion, it is unproductive to use a national currency of any country of the world as a world currency. A separate global law would define its fundamental supra-national interstate status and the principles of issue of the specially constituted global Emission centers. Such a system could become a basis for the first absolutely legal and legitimate world currency in the mankind history.

And the transition to the new currency should be made by the world’s major political and economic authorities, including UN Security Council, UN special session, “Group of Eight”, “Group of Twenty”, World Summit and Economic forums in Davos, St. Petersburg, Astana, etc.

The idea of N. Nazarbayev on updating the global-financial system that was firstly proclaimed at the II Astana Economic Forum in March 2009, found a positive response from many experts, financiers and politicians. the The Nobel Prize Laureate R. Mundell said that the idea of a single currency is “right”. Countries of “Group of Twenty” should “study it and form a Committee of the IMF” that would work on creation such a world currency.

E. Phepls, the Nobel Prize Laureate, in its turn, fully supported the idea of the President of Kazakhstan on the “introduction of regional and continental currency”, which allows “countries to strengthen their economies and reduce their dependence on the negative things from the outside”. Russian academic circles also distinguished the proposals of Nursultan Nazarbayev. Prominent economists, academicians of the Russian Academy of Science, such as Oleg Bogomolov, Nikolay Petrakov and Sergey Glazyev sent a letter to the President of Kazakhstan, which stressed the value, timeliness and completeness of the proposed by the Kazakhstani leader measures to overcome the global crisis.

The proposed idea of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan has contributed significantly to a broad discussion of issues, considered at the “Group of Twenty” Summit in April, 2009. The majority of its participants formed an opinion that the current system is inadequate and contains too many risks associated with the unilateral actions of those countries that are responsible for the release of reserve currencies. The United Nations (UN) joined the supporters of this position when published a report which proposed to create a new currency. The UN believes that countries should establish a world reserve bank which would issue a new currency and monitor the exchange rates of the countries-founders1.

Thus, the problem of creation of a new financial architecture emerged from the discharge hypothetical ideas and debated at the global level. More and more countries have expressed the view for the fundamental reform and change of the existing order, built on the

1 Trade and development report, 2009. Review // UN Conference on trade and development. UN, New York and Geneva, September 2009.

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principles of international settlements and solutions of all financial and economic issues in favor of more equitable system of supra-national reserve currency.

In this context, there is a need for new guidelines, reflecting the development trends of the Eurasian integration, which should take into consideration post-crisis realities and trends of world development for middle and long term prospects. Integration of Europe and Asia would have a positive impact on economic development and social welfare not only of the Eurasian subcontinent, but the whole post-crisis world.

From this perspective, a special importance should be made to the speech of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan N.A. Nazarbayev at the OSCE Summit on December 1, 2010, also his thoughts about the required conditions of the system address of socio-economic crisis problems.

Since the economic pragmatism is the cornerstone of the security system in the XXI century, the efforts of the European Union to stabilize the economy deserve a special support. In this case, “G8”and “G20” while discussing the problems of overcoming the global financial crisis, they also are searching for a new configuration of the world economy and reforming the monetary system. However, this process is still slow.

Noting the high level of theoretical and practical positions for the establishment of a new model of the world economy, it is important to note that being firm in the principal plane N.A. Nazarbayev showed a remarkable foresight, flexibility and wisdom in choosing the specific methods of implementation of transformation processes in Kazakhstan, that are aimed at building of democratic society and effective market-oriented economy. He decisively and promptly warned against “leftism” and clearly stated that “chaos and anarchy do not lead to a market”. A number of specific, relevant scientific and practical significance proposals were set forward, relating the transition to the effective government. Solving the problems of establishing a new nationhood in Kazakhstan, N.A.Nazarbayev has always evaluated analytically, both what was done in the nearby and distant neighbors, sensitively caught ahead the global trends.

Complex problems of socio-economic and political transformation of society demanded the maximum stress, political will, a state approach in the highest degree, ability to see perspective in the “Kazakhstan-2030” strategy and calculation of the consequences of actions taken a few steps forward.

Systemic reforms in Kazakhstan carried out under the guidance and direct participation of N.A.Nazarbayev, politician, scholar and strategist within a historically short period of the country’s independence, have generally high economic and social results. By January 1, 2011 Kazakhstani’s GDP per capita has increased over the years of reforms for 12 times and exceeded 9 thousand US dollars. Acknowledging the achievements

of the country, the United Nations in 2009 has included Kazakhstan in the category of countries with high human development as a conclusive evidence of the increased prosperity of Kazakhstan citizens.

The global financial and economic crisis has affected the economic growth of Kazakhstan, but has not stopped it. Accumulated economic potential provided with sustainability for the past three difficult years. Anti-crisis measures on protection the country’s financial system, systematically important banks, small and medium sized enterprises were realized, but also there has been an unprecedented growth of “local content” in the state purchase contract of national and transnational companies.

State support is provided to agriculture, the completion of shared housing. Due to the successful implementation of the “Roadmap 2009” program, 862 projects on reconstruction of housing and other important social infrastructure were implemented in the country’s regions.

Anti-crisis measures were implemented under the personal supervision of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan quickly and publicly. The global financial crisis has affected the economic growth, but the potential gained has provided the sustainability for the last three difficult years. Today, Kazakhstan is an established state with long-term development goals and priorities of the country, effectively performing its social obligations to the people.

The most urgent and pressing problems for humanity, proposed by the author are the following: the first – energy-ecological crisis, which complicates the process of creating a balanced energy security and environmental protection. The second is the world food crisis, which emerged despite the success of agriculture in the developed countries and affected the lives of thousand millions people, especially in Africa. And the third is a current system of economic relations that led to a sharp polarization of incomes, to increase the gap between a small number of rich countries “golden billion” and the majority of poor countries that do not have necessary resources for economic development and provide a decent standard of living of its population.

These problems, as it was noted by the President, are not limited to the terms of crisis. Lessons of the world financial crisis that began in 2007 suggest that the current monetary system, oriented on maximum profit and speculation on the stock markets would lead to the capital virtualization and its detachment from the real economy.

It also must be noted that the current level of science, education and culture have not yet meet the realities of the new historical era, problems of innovative development and requires a radical update of social and cultural spheres. The entire system of relations of the global community is facing new challenges that must

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be given appropriate systemic response. The author considers it as the most important task of the UN as the only all-inclusive global institution that can provide not only the dialogue and partnership among countries and civilizations, but also to overcome the crises of the new century.

Nursultan Nazarbayev, combining a managerial and scientific approach, is seeking to mainstream, the main thing which is stability of creative tendencies. To confirm this conclusion that Kazakhstan has entered a period of sustainable economic development when economic growth is based on the favorable investment climate, Kazakhstan has attracted over the years of reforms in foreign direct investment in an amount which is almost one third of the investments of foreign capital in all countries of the CIS. Kazakhstan’s economic achievements would have been unthinkable without the political stability and consolidation of society. Development of a modern economy in any case should not come into conflict with these strategic priorities.

The Republic of Kazakhstan is actively integrating into the global economic and political space, not only setting ambitious goals, but also offers its “keys to the crisis” thereby taking the responsibility for what will be the world like in five, ten or thirty years. As you can see, these provisions represent a major political, theoretical and practical interest, also recent performance and offers by Nazarbayev at international forums and his most important scientific publications are programmatic in nature. It is important to note that the balanced position of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan who quite rightly thinks that in modern conditions, seeking for someone to blame is nonproductive. Focusing on identifying the underlying defects of the system that originated such a powerful global cataclysms, and most importantly - finding ways to eliminate them is important these days. This requires a systematic approach to a radical renewal of the world economy, the establishment of a new, differently constructed model of the world economy, politics and global security. This will require tremendous efforts of the entire world community, the mobilization of intellectual and material resources and considerable time.

To build a radically new logic and develop a new general “rules of the road” for this transition, which President Nazarbayev conventionally referred to as global peace Transit. Thus, the issuers of the world currency does not bear any responsibility to anyone of its major stakeholders-users, nor the world community as a whole. The whole mechanism of a new world monetary system is important to build on the basis of advanced monitoring calls coming century of peace and humanity. The new global currency system should be modern and defect-free, being a productive source of sustainable development of world economy and the prosperity of society.

The realization mechanisms of the global economy new model are interdependent with large-scale integration. Kazakhstan, along with its partners in the regional and continental integration (CIS, EurAsEC, SCO and CACO) has long been in line with the global trend of the first quarter of the XXI century - the formation of regional integration associations. All of them, but in different degrees of readiness have the opportunity to become regional areas “transit” with their emission centers of inter-state settlement and supranational currency units. EurAsEC and SCO, creating the Eurasian transit center may be the initiators of accelerated development of the transit exchange and transit “not only in Eurasia and other continents, but throughout the world, promoting a coordinated global initiative to plan for a radical renewal (ABM) in international, global and world bodies, organizations and economic forums.”

The beginning of the XXI century is expected to improve the world order and saturated with threats and challenges that scientists refer to as a general civilization crisis. It is obviously is a system, because we are seeing signs of simultaneous crises of industrial, energy, environmental, food, social and even political military. But at the heart of all is the global financial crisis generated by including defects in the global monetary and financial architecture. The negative manifestations will only grow as long as the main cause of global crisis, global economy will not be eliminated.

The famous economist, Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize Laureate urges Asian countries to create a new supranational global reserve system and directly pointed to Asia as a place for practical beginning of this process. Supporting this idea is important, for example, by the CICA - Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia. Twenty leading Asian countries, members of this organization is already at its next summit of the big Asian Twenties (A-20) might well decide to establish a working group to develop the Asian supranational electronic unit of account. It would be absolutely natural step of the A-20 in the path of a single world trend of establishing regional monetary units of account (ECU, the euro, CCJ, dinar, sucre, African), as a natural development of healthy parts of the world economy.

Nursultan Nazarbayev noted the need to combine the efforts of countries to develop and introduction of supranational settlement payment unit (and then the currency) is in principle a new class. The radical novelty of this path is to consciously and deliberately move from the old currency units illusory valuation to the new tools of a realistic assessment of the true value of goods and services.

Defining a new class of regional and international financial instruments, going to replace the old currency, includes the following: firstly, it is - a new legal world currency, in contrast to the old reserve currency, and

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HIGHlIGHTS

secondly, it is - a new democratic currency, issued by the democratic emission center for the benefit of all mankind, and thirdly, it is - a tool the real measure of “true” value, as opposed to illusory assessments “imaginary” value, and fourthly, it is - a new financial instrument-controlled manufacturing profits, as opposed to its instrument of uncontrolled accumulation; Fifth, it is - a new financial instrument, purposeful competition and profit, serve as a common long-term development of countries, peoples, peace and humanity, unlike the old tools of competition and profit, employees selfishness, greed and avarice.

Speaking at the 62th Session of UN General Assembly on September 25th, 2007, Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed to develop a global energy and ecological strategy and discuss it at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2012. After that, scientists from Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries have conducted comprehensive research on the analysis of global trends, the construction of energy-economic balance and the dynamics of energy solutions for energy and ecological problems facing mankind. In addition, the methods of achieving a balance between economic, technical and technological capabilities, on one hand, required energy-ecological parameters - on the other hand.

Nursultan Nazarbayev gave an assessment of the results of research on scientific basis for the formation of economically and socially efficient global energy and ecological strategy for the period up to 2050 and beyond. Based on analysis of current situation and trends, summarizes the main parameters of the global economic development and appropriate energy supplies. The ways consistent use of traditional and renewable energy sources with the latest technology. This will allow to implement environmentally friendly energy flow, sufficient to address the socio-economic problems of humankind and to provide perpetual energy-economic security, based on scenarios for achieving environmentally and socially efficient in the world economy and energy. Thus, the modern new stage of development of society - it’s “time of global strategic decision making” and “a radical renewal of the global community in terms of becoming a new model for the global economy. The waves of global crises in various areas that have engulfed the planet since the end of the twentieth century and the beginning of the XIX century, forced to think more deeply about the fate of mankind. There is need for concerted efforts of countries and peoples in the quest for joint survival and prosperity.

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АКТУАЛЬНО

ФОРСИРОВАННАЯ МОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯ: МАРШ-БРОСОК В БУДУЩЕЕ

Кайрат КелимбетовМинистр экономического развития и торговли Республики Казахстан

В этом году Аста-нинский экономичес-кий форум вновь ста-нет площадкой для обмена мыслями и мнениями, где будет представлен подроб-ный анализ мирового кризиса с самых раз-ных точек зрения, где будут обсуждаться новые пути развития, а также будет дана

оценка рисков в мировой экономике. И вновь здесь соберутся ведущие экономисты мира, лауреаты Но-белевской премии, делегации из разных стран.

Кризис продемонстрировал нам всем самые разные подходы к вопросам спасения экономик го-сударств мира. За это время не раз поднимались основополагающие вопросы о том, как обеспечить дальнейшее экономическое развитие, какой будет посткризисная парадигма развития. Основные дис-куссии развернулись вокруг роли правительства и пределов государственного влияния, а также о том, каким образом привить инновационные подходы для решения вопроса экономического развития.

Задолго до кризиса, и до сих пор идут споры, - какую выбрать модель развития? Мы видим успеш-ную китайскую модель, видим успешную южноази-атскую модель. Например, в Южной Корее и Японии правительство играет более значимую роль с точки зрения выбора национального чемпиона или разви-тия конкретных кластеров в экономике.

Мы рады отметить, что пережили финансовый кризис прошлых лет. Однако, как нам бы этого ни хотелось, мы все еще испытываем его последствия. Рецессия в Великобритании, в США - рост, но там со-храняется высокий уровень безработицы. Еврозона переживает трудности. Сегодня мы являемся свиде-телями разбалансировки мировой экономики, когда две крупнейшие экономики мира находятся на про-тивоположных сторонах экономического процесса: США испытывает торговый дефицит, а у КНР - тор-говый профицит. Такая ситуация приводит к «торго-вым войнам», при которых некоторые страны будут пытаться стимулировать свой экспорт через деваль-вацию.

После кризиса мы должны говорить о диверси-фикации экономики Казахстана, об использовании наших естественных преимуществ, природных ре-сурсов.

По нашему мнению, наиболее подходящей стра-тегией ускоренной модернизации экономики для

Казахстана является стратегия традиционной специ-ализации с опорой на нефтегазовый сектор. В этой связи необходима комплексная политика в отноше-нии нефтегазового сектора, которому предстоит ре-шать три взаимосвязанные задачи.

Первое - это развитие нефтегазовой промыш-ленности, второе - переход сырьевого производства на производство с более высокой добавленной стои-мостью или диверсификация «первого типа», и тре-тье - это действия диверсификации «второго типа». То есть, диверсификация второго типа это проекты, связанные с развитием новых несырьевых отраслей экономики.

Первоочередная задача на пути модернизации - вырвать нефтегазовую отрасль из узких рамок до-бывающего сектора и сделать ее флагманом эконо-мического развития не только добывающей и пере-рабатывающей промышленности, но и целого ряда сопутствующих и смежных отраслей.

Казахстан, очень эффективно выполнив анти-кризисные задачи, параллельно сумел создать воз-можности для дальнейшего роста экономики. Точнее, разработал Государственную программу индустри-ального и инновационного развития страны. Цели этой программы амбициозны – в ближайшие пять лет реализовать индустриальные проекты на сумму более 40 миллиардов долларов. За этот период бу-дут модернизированы крупнейшие нефтегазовые и инфраструктурные объекты, новые заводы нефтехи-мии, металлургии и т.д. Также будут реализовывать-ся высокотехнологические промышленные проекты. В итоге мы надеемся, что Казахстан не только по-кажет себя серьезным игроком в сфере природных ресурсов, но и создаст новые рабочие места в целях экономического развития, а также для улучшения со-циального самочувствия граждан.

Перед нами стоит еще одна задача - повысить конкурентоспособность нашей экономики в связи с формированием Таможенного Cоюза. Рынок в 160 миллионов человек - это совершенно другая ситуа-ция, чем мы сейчас имеем. Соответственно, замет-но усиливается и конкуренция со стороны произво-дителей стран-партнеров по Таможенному Союзу. И чтобы защитить собственное производство, отечест-венный бизнес должен быть настроен на жесткую конкуренцию.

Сейчас правительство предпринимает конкрет-ные шаги: меняет налоговый режим, делает инвес-тиционный климат более привлекательным, спо-собствует увеличению квалифицированной рабочей силы. Думаем, эффект от принимаемых мер в эконо-мике будет максимальным.

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HIGHlIGHTS

FORCED MODERNIZATION:ACCElERATED MARCH TO THE FUTURE

By Kairat KelimbetovMinister of Economic Development and Trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan

This year, the Astana Economic Forum will become again a platform for exchange of ideas and opinions, where a detailed analysis of the global crisis from very different perspectives will be presented, where new ways of development will be discussed, as well as an assessment of the risks in the global economy will be given. And here again the world’s leading economists, The Nobel Laureates, delegations from various countries will gather

The crisis has shown us a variety of approaches to rescue the economies of the world. During this period of time, the fundamental questions such as how to provide further economic development, what kind of post-crisis development paradigm might be, were discussed several times. The main discussions were revolved around the role of government and limits of government influence, as well as how to instill innovative approaches in order to address the issue of economic development.

Long before the crisis, and it is still being debated – how to choose the model of development? We witness the successful Chinese model; we witness a successful South Asian model. For example, in South Korea and Japan, the government plays a larger role in terms of selecting a national champion or the development of specific clusters in the economy.

We are pleased to note that we outlived the financial crisis of the past years. However, despite our wish, we still feel its effects. The recession in the UK, in the U.S. there is a growth, but a high level of unemployment remains. The eurozone is experiencing difficulties. Today we are witnessing a global economic imbalance, when the two largest economies in the world are on the opposite sides of the economic process: in the U.S. there are trade deficits, and in China there is a trade surplus. This situation leads to “trade wars” in which some countries will try to stimulate their exports through devaluation.

After the crisis we should talk about the diversifying the economy of Kazakhstan, the use of our natural advantages and natural resources.

In our opinion, the most appropriate strategy of accelerated modernization of the economy in Kazakhstan is a strategy of traditional specialization based on oil and gas sector. In this respect, a comprehensive policy on oil and gas sector, which is to solve three interrelated problems, is required.

Firstly, it is the development of oil and gas industry. Secondly, the transition of the commodity production to the production with higher added value or diversification of “the first type”. And, thirdly, the actions of the “second type” diversification. That is, the second type diversifications are the projects, connected with the development of new non-extractive industries.

The primary objective on the way of modernization is to draw the oil and gas industry from the narrow confines of the mining sector and make it a flagship of the economic development of not only the mining and processing industry, but also of a number of related and allied industries.

Having very effectively executed the anti-crisis tasks, Kazakhstan has managed in parallel to create opportunities for further growth. More precisely, we developed a national program of industrial and innovation development of the country. The objectives of this program are very ambitious - in the next five years to implement industrial projects worth more than $ 40 billion. During this period of time, major oil and gas and infrastructure facilities, new plants petrochemical, metallurgy, etc. will be upgraded. The high-tech industrial projects will also be realized. Eventually, we hope that Kazakhstan will not only demonstrate itself as a serious player in the field of natural resources, but also create new jobs for economic development, as well as for improvement of the social well-being of citizens.

We are faced with another challenge which is to improve the competitiveness of our economy due to the formation of the Customs Union. The market amounting to 160 million people is a completely different situation than we have it now. Respectively, the competition from the partner countries of the Customs Union is significantly enhanced. And in order to protect its own production, domestic business should be configured to fierce competition.

Now the government is taking concrete steps: changing the tax regime, makes the investment climate more attractive, contributes to an increase in skilled labor. We think that the effect of measures taken in the economy will be maximum.

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Акционерное общество «Национальная компания «КазМунайГаз» создано путем слияния Национальной нефте- газовой компании «Казахойл» и Национальной компании «Транспорт нефти и газа» на основании Указа Президента Республики Казахстан от 20 февраля 2002 года №811 «О мерах по дальнейшему обеспечению интересов государства в нефте-газовом секторе экономики страны».

Национальная компания «КазМунайГаз» (КМГ) – казахстанс-кий национальный оператор по разведке, добыче, переработке и транспортировке углеводородов, представляющий интересы государства в нефтегазовой отрасли Казахстана.

100% акций КМГ принадлежат АО «Фонд национального благосостояния «Самрук-Казына».

Основные направления деятельности:• Разведка и добыча нефти и газа• Транспортировка нефти• Транспортировка газа• Переработка нефти, маркетинг и сбыт нефти и нефтепро-

дуктов• Сервисные услуги для нефтегазовой отрасли

Национальная компания «КазМунайГаз» ставит своей целью обеспечение максимальных выгод для Республики Казахстан от участия в развитии национальной нефтегазовой отрасли.

«КазМунайГаз» занимает ведущие позиции в нефтегазовом секторе страны, обеспечивая 28% нефтедобычи, 63% транспор-тировки нефти, 100% транспортировки газа, а также 70% нефте-переработки в Казахстане.

Сегодня наиболее крупными компаниями группы «КазМунайГаз» являются:

• АО «Разведка Добыча «КазМунайГаз» (разведка и добыча нефти и газа)

• АО «КазТрансОйл» (транспортировка нефти)• АО «КазТрансГаз» (транспортировка газа)• АО «КазМунайТениз» (морские нефтяные операции)• АО НМСК «КазМорТрансФлот» (танкерные перевозки)• АО «КазМунайГаз - переработка и маркетинг» (продажа

нефти и нефтепродуктов на внутреннем и международном рын-ках)

АО «Национальная компания «КазМунайГаз»010000, Республика Казахстанг. Астана, пр. Кабанбай батыра, 19факс +7 (7172) 976000, 976001E-mail: info@kmg.kzwww.kmg.kz

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“KazMunayGas” National Company” Joint-Stock Company was established through the merger of “Kazakh Oil” National Oil and Gas Company and “Transport of Oil and Gas” National Company by Decree # 811 of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan “On Measures to Further Secure the Interests of the State in the National Oil and Gas Sector”, dated February 20, 2002.

“KazMunayGas” National Company (KMG) is the national operator of Kazakhstan in exploration, production, processing and transportation of hydrocarbons. It represents the national interests in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry.

100% of KMG stock is owned by “Samruk-Kazyna” National Welfare Fund” Joint-Stock Company.

Main activities:• Oil and gas exploration and production• Oil transportation• Gas transportation• Oil processing, marketing and sales of oil and oil

products• Services for the oil and gas sector

“KazMunayGas” National Company aims to ensure maximum benefits for the Republic of Kazakhstan from participation in development of the national oil and gas sector.

“KazMunayGas” takes the leading position in the oil-and-gas sector of Kazakhstan, and its share in oil production is 28 per cent, as well as 63 per cent in oil transportation, almost 100 per cent in gas transportation, and 70 per cent in oil refining countrywide.

To date, the largest companies of KazMunayGas Group include:

• “KazMunayGas Exploration & Production” JSC (oil and gas exploration and production)

• “KazTransOil” (oil transportation)• “KazTransGas” (gas transportation)• “KazMunayTeniz” JSC (offshore oil operations)• “KazMorTransFlot” JSC (tanker transportation)• “KazMunayGas – Refining and Marketing” JSC

(marketing of oil and oil products on domestic and international markets)

“KazMunayGas” National Company” JSC 19, Kabanbai Batyr Avenue

Astana, 010000, Republic of KazakhstanFax: +7 (7172) 976000, 976001

E-mail: info@kmg.kzWeb: www.kmg.kz

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ЧЛЕНЫ АЕЭКУ

THE ROlE OF INCENTIVES IN THE WORlD FINANCIAl CRISIS

By Robert J. AumannNobel Prize Winner in Economics, 2005

Abstract:A lecture explaining the causes of the 2008-2009

world financial crisis in terms of ordinary economic processes. The lecture was delivered at the 39th St. Gallen Symposium, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, 8 May 2009.

We are from the centre not for rationality but for the study of rationality. There is a difference. In the Centre for the Study of Rationality we have some highly practical people, and I am not one of them. I am a theoretician and I do not understand very well how the real world works.

Let me tell you a little story: The Chairman here mentioned that I got this prize, the Nobel Prize in economics, a few years ago. Right after this prize was announced, they called a press conference in the building of the Centre for the Study of Rationality. The Swedish ambassador was there, the president of the university, your humble servant and a whole lot of reporters, journalists. One of the journalists asked me, “Professor Aumann, how is it that the Israeli economy is doing so poorly?” So I said, “Well, I do not really know very much about economics, but my friends who are

economists tell me that the Israeli economy is actually booming, is doing very well, so I do not really understand your question.” The response of course to my saying that I do not know much about economics was exactly the response that I got over here: A peal of laughter. But it is true, I am sorry to say. It is true.

So what I am going to tell you now is the result of conversations I had over several months with my colleagues at the Centre for the Study of Rationality, who do know quite a bit about economics. I listened to them and what they said seemed to make sense and I am going to deliver it to you.

I would like to talk about the causes of the financial crisis, what brought it about. There will not be time to talk about the remedies and there will not be time to talk about the prognosis, but seriously, the message I want to get across is that there has been all kinds of talk about the causes; saying that the market economy has gone bankrupt, let us go back to socialism, communism, government running of the economy, or it really proves that people do not behave rationally and let us abandon perhaps not the market economy, but let us abandon economics and economic theory and go to behavioural economics and so on and so forth.

All of that is not the case. People were responding entirely to their incentives. They were acting in a classical economic way. They were motivated to do these things and everything went according to incentives, according to the way that classical economic theory and game theory would have predicted.

The problem is that the process is a complicated process. What brought about the crisis was sub-prime lending. This was a wonderful idea, but it was a new idea. It was a new idea and new ideas sometimes have quirks and little angles which are not entirely seen through when they are first devised.

These things happen. One has a brilliant new idea for revising a system, but it has unforeseen consequences. That is not to say that the consequences could not have been foreseen. A proper analysis, as you will see, says, “Hey, this is something that had to happen, only we did not think it through properly.”

So it was a mistake. It was a mistake in reasoning. It was not that people did not respond to their incentives. Everybody acted in accordance with his incentives. The only thing was that the process that this set off was a little too complex to foresee in the first place. Now we

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EECSA MEMBERS

understand it and you are going to understand it in ten minutes. I understand it already and you will understand it in ten minutes. It is not that complex, but it was too complex to be foreseen beforehand. This happens with new ideas.

We had a change in the electoral process in Israel about 15 years ago and it had unforeseen consequences, although they should have been foreseen. And then we changed back after one election. Not because the results were not good, but the powers that be did not like them and they had not foreseen them.

The immediate cause of the crisis was sub-prime lending. What happened in the sub-prime lending fiasco? What happened was that first of all somebody had a great idea. It used to be that if you wanted to buy a house and did not have enough money to pay for it in your bank account, you went to a bank and said, “Listen, mate: Lend me some money, I will buy the house and if I do not repay the money, you will take the house back.» That’s what a mortgage is: a classical mortgage. Then the Bank would say, «Very well, Mr. Aumann, we will be glad to do that. You pay us some interest and we will be glad to do that. But who are you? We understand that you have a job, but will you be able to repay? We do not like defaults.” And I convinced them that I would be able to repay and I had a nice job and had a steady income and the schedule of payments was okay for me. So they lent me the money.

Somebody else was not able to convince the bank; it was not likely that he would default, but there was a larger probability than was acceptable to the bank that he would default. So they said, “We are very sorry, Mr. Baumann, but we will not be able to make the loan.” And that was the end of the story.

Then somebody came up with this bright idea: We should be able to do something even for the Baumanns, who have a higher probability of defaulting. That is, we take all the Baumanns and we bundle them together and we say, “Some of these people are going to default, but most of them are not going to default, so we have made a pool out of all those loans and we will charge more interest than to the prime borrowers. And that larger amount of interest will cover the losses that we take because of the defaults.”

It is a brilliant idea. It is totally sound, right? Yes, I think it is totally sound. It sounds totally sound. What happened? Gesagt, gemacht. They did this.

And sure enough, some of these people defaulted. But what happened before the people defaulted? Before the people defaulted, a lot of people who had not been able to buy houses before were now getting loans to buy houses. They were getting money to buy houses, so there was a big demand for housing and the contractors came in to meet that demand and they built more housing.

Now what happened? After a while, some people were paying and some people, as had been predicted

and foreseen, indeed started to default. So the banks said, “Excellent! We will take the house back.” This had been perfectly foreseen. “We will take the house back.”

But what happened to those houses? They were not burnt down, the houses that were taken back. They did not bulldoze them. They were there on the market. What happens to the market now that there is a whole bunch of additional houses on the market? And what happens to the market when those houses that were repossessed come on the market? Well, the good old law of supply and demand also holds for the housing market. There was an excess supply of houses, and prices came down.

Now prices came down so much that people who were able to repay did not want to repay. Why? Because in the United States it is quite common to have fairly low down-payments. We will talk about that a little more a little later. Let us say you make a 10% down-payment on a house that is worth half a million dollars and then the price drops to USD 400,000 and you say, “Hey, I am paying off a loan of USD 450,000 …“ – you know that at the beginning nearly all you are repaying is interest, you are not repaying principle – “I am paying off a loan of USD 450,000 for a piece of property that is worth USD 400,000. I could pay it off, but I am not crazy. Why should I pay more than the property is worth?” And you go to the branch of the bank and you say, “Gentlemen, here are the keys to my house. Take them. I am going to buy another house. Rather than paying off this loan, I will take a different loan for USD 400,000. Take the keys.”

The bank took the keys and this created an even greater oversupply of houses and the price went down to USD 350,000. The whole thing spirals down and the bank is stuck with a whole lot of houses which it cannot sell. And what happens with the bank? It rupts: You have a “bank-rupt” situation.

Next, what are the underlying causes of this?Let me get straight to one of the basic underlying

causes and that is the incentives for bank managers. There were several ways that incentives for bank managers enhanced this process. One was entanglement. What happened was that whereas before this new development, banks had been more or less taking on their obligations by themselves, in the recent past they started insuring loans or doing these credit default swaps, which means that they were selling mortgages – or at least part of the mortgages – to other financial institutions.

There is something in insurance called “moral hazard”, which means that when you insure something, you are less careful about it. That is also what happened with these loans. So even on sub-prime lending, where everything was bundled together, you say, “Well, you know the probability of default is pretty low anyway. It is higher than for other loans, but it is pretty low. And anyway I do not care because I have insured the loan.”

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AIG, the American Insurance Group, was mainly in the business of insuring these loans. So that is one thing that made bank managers and loan officers less careful about who to issue these loans to.

Another thing is that a loan officer is in business to make loans. That is how he makes a living. The more loans he makes, the faster he will get his promotion and his bonuses and whatever. Therefore the loan officers gradually started asking for less and less down-payment. This was one of the unforeseen things: That people would return their house even though they can pay off the loan, because the price had gone down too much.

If you make a down-payment that is 30% of the house or 50% of the house or something like that, that is one thing. But when you have a down-payment which is 10%, 5% of the house, sometimes no down-payment, sometimes negative down-payment – the bank would lend you more money than the house was worth – this is one of the things that drove the crisis.

Finally, we have the matter of the incentive compensation structure of the upper management – not the loan officers, but the upper management. Here I am not talking about the size of the compensation, but its structure. Unfortunately, we will not have time to talk about that.

Perhaps the most important factor is the entanglement. In addition to the moral hazard this

created, it had an even more fundamental effect. “Entanglement” means that all these companies, all these financial institutions, were buying each other’s paper. Therefore when one goes down, they all go down.

You know what happened in New York? About ten or 15 years ago, there was a blackout. New York went dark for 12 hours. There was no electricity. The reason was that it was a hot summer’s day and in one area the transformer that supplied electricity to that area was overloaded and cut out. Now if one transformer cuts out, it is not the end of the world. That area has a problem and you go and fix the problem. But just like with insurance – credit default swaps – the electricity company had foreseen this. And they said, “If one transformer goes out, we are going to make automatic arrangements for other areas to come in and help it out.” But it was a hot summer’s day in the other areas too, so when another transformer in another area came in to help this one out, it also crashed. Then more transformers came in and everything crashed until the whole northeastern United States was dark.

That is what happened here. If one bank is in trouble because of subprime lending, that is okay. But if one after another comes in and they are all involved and they are all over-leveraged, everything goes dark. And that is what happened.

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A FUTURE FOR THE SDR?

By Richard N. CooperHarvard University

Concerns have been expressed during the past year about the international role of the US dollar. Expressions of concern are diverse and not necessarily mutually consistent. It has been said that an international monetary system that relies so heavily on a national currency is not stable or sustainable – and that even if it is stable and sustainable, it is not desirable. It has been said that with an inevitably depreciating dollar a “tipping point” will be reached at which important agents in the world economy will switch out of dollars into some other currency, with the euro being the leading candidate, leading in turn to a disastrous depreciation of the dollar and world recession. The 50-year-old Triffin Dilemma, due to the late Yale professor Robert Triffin, has been revived — without mentioning that one horn of that dilemma was convertibility of the dollar into gold at a fixed price, abandoned in 1971. Fears have been expressed that a significant depreciation of the dollar, thought by some to be necessary to correct global current account imbalances, will impair the value of foreign exchange reserves held in dollars by monetary authorities around the world. Creation of an international monetary asset, such as the SDR or a modern substitute, has been advocated as a possible solution to these many concerns.

This article will briefly address the future prospects for the dollar as an internationally acceptable denomination for assets, and then discuss the several ways in which the SDR or some other internationally-agreed reserve asset, might partially substitute for the US dollar in its international roles, and even eventually replace it. It concludes that there is no practical substitute for the dollar in the near future, meaning the next decade or two; and that while the SDR could be made a substitute for the dollar along several dimensions in the longer run, it would require a major concerted effort by the leading governments of the world to do so.

It is worth recalling that the US dollar is not the world’s key currency by policy design, just as English is not the leading global language by policy design. Both are the evolutionary outcomes of practice and experience. It would take both a major shock to the dollar and a viable alternative to dislodge it from widespread use. Like a common language, it enjoys “network externalities” – the greater the number of agents who use and accept it, the more useful it is to everyone, and the more entrenched it becomes. The dollar also enjoys a large market in low-risk and highly liquid securities, notably US Treasury bills; the liquidity both enhances and is enhanced by the network externalities. Over 80 percent of the world’s

foreign exchange transactions directly involve the US dollar. It is easy to hold and easy to use, even on a large scale. In short, it is highly convenient.

Are there other currencies that could substitute for the dollar in its international role? The obvious candidate is the euro, and indeed the euro already accounts for a significant and growing fraction of official international reserves. But despite great progress over the decade of its existence, the euro capital market is still quite fragmented, with varying degrees of liquidity depending on the security. Holders of international reserves cannot hold euros; they have to hold euro-denominated securities, and exactly what security it is makes a great deal of difference. The most prevalent euro-denominated government securities are those issued by the Italian government, with $1.8 trillion will government securities are those issued by the Italian government, with $1.8 trillion outstanding at the end of September 2008. Many central banks would hesitate to hold such securities, since Italian public debt exceeds GDP and the Italian government is not known for budgetary discipline or efficiency. German government debt outstanding was $1.4 trillion. But Germany over the years has had an aversion to short-term debt, so only $266 billion of this had a maturity under one year. Moreover, German buyers tend to hold to maturity, so the secondary market is much

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less well developed than it is in the United States, and German bonds are correspondingly less liquid. France had the next largest issue, followed by Spain as a distant fourth. So while in total there is much outstanding euro-denominated public debt, the market is more fragmented and much less liquid – especially for large transactions - than the market in US government securities, which in September 2008 totaled $7.3 trillion, of which $2.1 trillion was short term.

The market is better developed in the United Kingdom, but the amount of pound-denominated debt at $0.8 trillion is significantly smaller than that of the larger continental countries. Canada’s public debt is even smaller.

Japan has extensive government debt, at $7.9 trillion in September 2008 even more than the United States, and $2.3 trillion was short-term. There are three potential problems with Japanese securities as a basis for an international currency. First, the yield has been exceptionally low, below one percent on short-term securities, during most of the past two decades. Second, while Japan has a relatively free market in public debt, Japan has a strong tradition of “guidance” by the Ministry of Finance, and that tradition has not entirely vanished. Foreigners might worry about new guidance that would limit their freedom of action and even discriminate against foreigners in favor of domestic holders. Third, among rich countries Japan has the highest ratio of debt to GDP, well over 100 percent. This does not pose a financing problem with interest rates as low as they have recently been, but it might do so in the future, particularly in view of the rapid ageing of Japanese society (on which more below).

China has almost as much government debt outstanding as Germany, $1.4 trillion, and over half of it is short term. China’s fiscal policy has been conservative, and the ratio of debt to GDP is moderate. But the Chinese capital market, including that for government securities, is not well developed; most purchasers hold until maturity. Foreigners at present do not have access to Chinese government securities, and the Chinese currency is not convertible for capital account transactions. Thus the yuan is not suitable for being an international currency at present. All that could change in the next two decades. Indeed, among the many objectives of China’s government are a much improved capital market and a fully convertible currency. But China’s financial system requires many improvements before these objectives can be securely achieved, and they are not likely to take place quickly.

I conclude that essentially on technical (market) grounds none of the other leading currencies in the world today is ready to replace the US dollar in its international role. The international role of the euro is likely to increase in the coming decade as non-euroland members of the European Union and aspiring candidates to the EU

increasingly use euros in their transactions with euroland countries, for invoicing, for payment, and for holding international balances. Other countries closely linked economically to Europe are likely to do the same. But this increasing use of the euro is not likely to displace the dollar at the global level. In a growing world economy, there is room for the euro to increase its share in reserve holdings even while the value of dollar holdings continues to rise.

Moreover, on current benign projections for the world economy the GDP shares of Europe and of Japan are likely to fall significantly over the next two decades, largely for demographic reasons. Both parts of the world have low birth rates and are ageing rapidly. The share of the United States, in contrast, will decline only modestly, due to higher birth rates and continued significant immigration, while those of China and other developing countries grow significantly. Thus the relative importance of Europe and of Japan as trading destinations will gradually decline as that of successful developing countries increases, while the United States continues to be far the largest national economy, with only slight decline in share of gross world product.

For all these reasons, the dollar is not likely to be seriously displaced, assuming the United States continues to manage its monetary and fiscal affairs in a reasonable fashion, and assuming the US capital market remains open.

But will not holders of dollars lose value over time, as is frequently claimed, sometimes with anxiety? This question is more complicated than it at first appears, but the most likely answer is: not meaningfully. There are three different sense in which dollar reserves can “lose value”: 1) against home currency; 2) against other currencies; and 3) in terms of goods and services available on the world market.

A “loss” in the value of dollar reserves occurs if the home currency (e.g. the Chinese yuan) appreciates against the dollar: the value of dollar reserves declines when measured in home currency, and the books of the monetary authority, measured conventionally in domestic currency, will show a loss on its holdings of foreign exchange reserves. But this loss arises only because of an accounting convention which should not in fact be applied to central banks. If they hold foreign exchange, that presumably reflects a deliberate (and often sensible) decision to have mismatched assets and liabilities because of the potential usefulness of the assets, and it is therefore misguided to lament “losses” if the home currency appreciates. (The same logic would imply boasting gains when the home currency depreciates, which is much more common; but of course such gains are only accounting gains, without increasing the public’s well-being at all.)

If the dollar depreciates against the euro or other foreign currencies, it is of course true that the value of

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reserves measured in euros has declined, i.e. a “loss” has been incurred. The logic of this argument is that foreign exchange reserves always lose value unless they are held at all times in the currency that appreciates the most. But central banks are not supposed to be currency speculators, and if they do speculate in currencies the wrath of the international community should come down on them, as potential inside traders that do not in the end have to meet a market test.

The real concern should be whether reserves lose purchasing power over goods and services in the world market, since smoothing such purchases under various not-always-foreseen contingencies is presumably a principal reason for holding reserves. (Of course, if a country is concerned with value in terms of a particular commodity, such as oil, rather than general purchasing power, it should stock that particular commodity – as some countries do – rather than build foreign exchange reserves). Here however it is important to recall that foreign exchange reserves are typically held in short-term interest-bearing securities. If inflation rises seriously, the interest rate will also rise, so the holder will be compensated for the decline in purchasing power. Only surprise inflations therefore erode purchasing power, and the erosion is not likely to be great for short-term securities.

What about the other possibility, displacing the US dollar in its international role by a synthetic currency, as a matter of conscious and deliberate collective action? This possibility, quietly suggested by Governor Zhou of China’s central bank in the spring of 2009, could be achieved by substantially augmenting the role of the SDR, a synthetic unit account of the International Monetary Fund defined in terms of four currencies: the USD, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound. What is not generally known is that such a move has been an official objective of the international community since 1978, as stated in the second amendment to the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, which states that members shall conduct their policies with respect to reserve assets consistent with “the objectives of promoting better international surveillance of international liquidity and making the special drawing right [SDR] the principal reserve asset in the international monetary system” (Article VIII.7).

The issues here are conceptual, practical, and even esthetic. The conceptual issues concern the net gains that may be expected to accrue to the world at large from creating a new, man-made international currency, compared with the current non-systematic practices, relying mainly on the US dollar. These net gains are not completely obvious, and that most of them would not occur without other important changes in how the international financial system functions, including international engagement in the role of national exchange rate policies, which changes would if anything

be more controversial than achieving wide acceptance of a synthetic international currency.

The esthetic issue concerns largely the offense that some observers take at having a national currency play the leading international role: it creates an asymmetry in a system which at least formally and legally (as in the United Nations Charter and most other international treaties) treats all nations as equal. It also appears to give the nation whose currency is used special privileges, although this too is not at all obvious on close inspection.

Most of the issues are practical, in principle soluble, but often with difficulty and with undesirable and perhaps unacceptable side effects. One practical matter concerns the principles that would govern issuance of the synthetic currency, including who exactly would decide. SDR creation under existing IMF arrangements involves a quinquennial evaluation of whether the world economy needs additional liquidity, and a decision by IMF governors (essentially the finance ministers of the world) by an 85 percent weighted vote (which gives the USA and the European Union taken together effective veto power) concerning when and how much. Only two successful issuances had been decided before 2009, for a total of SDR 22 billion (about $35 billion). A third, involving distribution to new members such as China and Russia, plus a new allocation in 2009, added $283 billion. Most transactions in SDRs in fact have been between national monetary authorities and the IMF itself. This decision-making arrangement is inappropriately cumbersome and time-consuming if the SDR is to become a true international currency.

SDRs as currently constituted can be used only by national monetary authorities, the IMF, and selected designated financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements. Most holdings of US dollars outside the United States are by private parties, and financial markets are operated by and largely for private parties, with governments and central banks taking advantage of them. If the SDR were to become a truly international currency, it would have to be made accessible to private parties; or else the modus operandi of international financial relations would have to be radically revised. This applies to holdings of and payments in SDRs. There is nothing that prevents agents today from using the SDR as a unit of account in their transactions with foreigners. The SDR is priced in terms of other currencies, so there is no ambiguity about its value at any moment. That it is not used widely suggests either that inertia in human behavior is very high, however irrational that may be, or else that transactors see no compelling reason to shift to SDRs from dollars or whatever currency they may currently be using.

A third practical issue concerns what is to become of all the US dollars that are held today in both private and official balances if the SDR (or some other synthetic

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unit) is to replace the US dollar. One approach would be to leave them, and substitute SDRs through incremental growth, such that the US dollar (and other national currencies now held abroad) would gradually recede in relative importance, without any formal displacement. Given the amount of foreign balances held today (over $6 trillion in official reserves alone, and perhaps 6 times that in private balances), such an approach would take a very long time for the SDR to become the predominant reserve asset – and perhaps never in private balances, unless the process were forced in some way.

An alternative approach would involve the creation of a “substitution account”, whereby at least official holders and perhaps even private holders of dollars and other currencies would exchange their holdings for an equivalent value of SDRs. The question then arises what would become of the dollars and other national currencies received in this arrangement, e.g. by the International Monetary Fund or by a new institution created for the purpose. And would the obligors promise to maintain their SDR value. The United States might be expected to give exchange rate guarantees, but no Congress would provide an unconditional guarantee of value for assets which, though issued by the US government, were issued in US dollars and voluntarily acquired by foreign parties, and even in circumstances against the wishes of the United States.

To identify the practical issues that would have to be resolved in creating a synthetic international currency is useful, since it suggests that the gains from such a move would have to be sufficiently substantial to drive governments to try to solve the practical problems.

But so long as the dollar is widely accepted, will not the United States fiercely resist a move to an SDR-based system, because of the frequently vaunted gains that arise for the issuing country of a reserve currency? This is not the occasion for a lengthy discussion of the

costs and benefits of an international currency for the issuing country, except to note that these are not nearly as great as is often implied. McKinsey Global Institute has recently provided a cost-benefit analysis for the United States, and concludes that the net gains in a normal year amount to $40-70 billion, 0.3-0.5 percent of GDP; and that in a year of financial stress the gains are likely to be smaller, even perhaps negative. This analysis focuses on three components: seigniorage, the gain that arise from issuing non-interest-bearing currency that is widely held abroad; lower interest rates, especially on government debt, that arise from international holdings of government securities; and the loss of export competitiveness that arises from higher-than-otherwise demand for the national currency. The first two are reckoned as benefits to the United States, the third as a cost, and of course the net effect depends precisely on the quantitative estimates for each effect. I believe they overstate the impact on US interest rates, given the increasing integration of the world capital market and its tendency to reallocate funds to higher-yielding assets; thus the net gains, already low in normal years on the MGI estimate, may be lower still.

As suggested, to substitute the SDR fully for the dollar in its international roles would be extremely ambitious. But the SDR could play a more modest role. Countries have built their foreign exchange reserves greatly during the course of this decade, particularly following the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Reserves in developing countries and economies in transition grew from SDR 0.9 trillion in 2000 to SDR 2.5 trillion by the end of 2007, an increase of SDR 800 billion, 11 percent a year, even if China is excluded. Perhaps surprisingly, this rapid growth of reserves barely kept ahead of the growth of imports into these countries over the same period. A country can build its reserves (beyond interest earnings) only through running a surplus on exports of goods

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and services, or by importing capital, or both. Many developing countries learned during the financial crisis to be wary of reliance on imports of foreign private capital, so they have run current account surpluses – which of course must have their counterpart in current account deficits elsewhere, leading to “global imbalances.”

The SDR was created in the late 1960s to satisfy increasing demand for reserves in a growing world economy, but in fact until 2009 the issuance of SDRs has been extremely modest, such that by the end of 2007 they accounted for only xx percent of total official reserves (not counting gold, which would lower the ratio further). In future the SDR could be created on a regular and substantial basis, enough approximately to satisfy the growing demand for reserves, perhaps $200 billion a year or even more. Such a move would involve a political decision to use a mechanism we already have, and would not involve further amendments to the IMF Articles. The advantage is that it would reduce the pressure many countries evidently feel to earn additional reserves. Their demand would be satisfied by issuing new SDRs, and their drive to export would be correspondingly diminished. This in turn would lead to some reduction in current account deficits around the world, notably of the United States. It would also permit countries to use more of their domestic savings for investment at home.

It should not be supposed that the large global imbalances are due solely or even mainly to this factor; differences in demographic trends leading to differences in national saving and investment rates also play a important role, and most of the capital flows in recent years have been private, not lending to the reserve currency countries by countries building their official reserves. But it is one factor, and issuing SDRs on a regular basis could help reduce that source of imbalance.

Would the issuance of SDRs on a significant scale be inflationary, as some fear? That depends on the

world’s response to such issuance, and in particular the response in the reserve currency countries. Reducing the need to export and reducing trade surpluses in reserve-building countries would permit those countries to import more. This increase in import demand would increase export demand directly or indirectly in the reserve-currency countries, and in that sense would increase expansionary pressures in those countries. If the expansion were not desired, i.e. if those countries were operating near full employment and experiencing inflationary pressures, they could respond by contracting monetary and/or fiscal policies. Both the United States and the European Union have, by world standards, good records in responding to inflationary pressures for domestic reason, i.e. without regard to their official reserves. So very likely any inflationary pressures that might arise from issuance of SDRs would be effectively neutralized by policy responses in the reserve-currency areas.

Such a move to create more SDRs would indeed partially substitute for the dollar as a reserve currency; that would be part of its purpose. But total foreign exchange reserves are so large relative to the indicated new issuance that the dollar would remain the dominant international currency, even in official reserves for many years to come.

A more ambitious proposal, which would require amendment of the IMF Articles, would authorize the IMF to issue SDRs in abundance during global financial crises as that experienced in 2008, with the clear understanding that such SDRs would be withdrawn after the world financial system returned to normal. Such an evolution of the role of the SDR might be a stepping stone toward eventual private use of the SDR, but for reasons given that event, if it occurs at all, is likely to be far in the future.

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REGIONAl MONETARY UNIONS:THE PATH TO A GlOBAl CURRENCY

By Herbert GrubelEmeritus Professor of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Senior Fellow, The Fraser Institute

His Excellency, President Nazarbayev, The Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell and many others assembled here, including myself, have examined the merit of a global currency and concluded that it would bring substantial economic benefits to the people of the world without the imposition of significant costs.

There would be savings in the cost of international trade and capital flows. Risk premiums on currency transactions and foreign investments would be reduced, which would increase trade, capital flows and living standards for all. The profits from supplying the world with liquidity would no longer come to the United States and Europe but to all citizens of the world.

The big problem is how to reach international agreement on the creation of a global currency. In the short time available to me here today, I will suggest that the path to a global currency is best found through the creation of a network of regional monetary unions. Once in place, these regional unions will demonstrate clearly the merit of a common currency for its member countries and make them confident in their ability to prosper in a global currency world.

However, the creation of regional monetary unions is likely to encounter many obstacles, if the experience with my proposal for the creation of a North American Monetary Union (NAMU) between Canada, Mexico and the United States is any indication. I made this proposal in 1999, when the Euro replaced national currencies in Europe and suggested that it would be good to call the new common currency the Amero.

In April of 2011 a search for the word Amero on Google brought up 1.3 million references. Some of them show designs for Amero coins and currency notes and contain invitations to buy them for investment, all initiated by private interests. The bulk of the references are hostile to the idea of creating the Amero on the grounds that it is the first step in a socialist-inspired global conspiracy to deprive the United States of its national sovereignty. In a video on the net I defend myself against the accusation of being part of this conspiracy, but there are few articles that agree with me and support the idea of the Amero.

Each of the governments that would be involved in the proposed NAMU reacted differently. The US government disregarded my proposal completely. I have been told by people in the position to know that there have been no study papers of the idea in the Federal Reserve or the State Department. The Canadian Senate held hearings and endorsed it, but the central bank and department of finance judged it to be premature and thus stopped any further official interest. The Mexican government initially backed the proposal, but stopped the effort in the face of public opposition and the need to focus on more urgent and popular domestic policy initiatives.

The main arguments of the conspiracy theorists and others focus on the concerns that the union would reduce national sovereignty in the pursuit of economic, financial regulatory, trade, military, social, cultural and political policies. These arguments are backed by reference to developments in the Euro-zone.

How realistic are these concerns? They are bogus because the loss of national sovereignty in the Euro-zone that has arisen from the harmonization of regulatory regimes and the creation of a European parliament resulted from politically motivated treaties that are totally separate from the one that created the Euro. The goal of these treaties is to create a United States of Europe, to prevent future wars among its members and reduce the global hegemony of the United States. It follows therefore that the creation of other regional monetary unions will not inevitably lead to a loss of national sovereignty of member states in matters other than the pursuit of monetary policy.

Opponents of NAMU also point to the recent economic crises in Greece, Ireland and Portugal as evidence of problems that face member countries and the very existence of that union. They argue that such problems will inevitably burden other, future regional monetary unions.

This argument is also bogus because these crises were due to chronic government deficits in Greece and Portugal, the elimination of which would have caused the same basic hardships whether or not these countries were members of the ECU. In fact, it can be argued that membership in the ECU has reduced these hardships since the fiscal reforms were not accompanied by wild and large fluctuations in exchange rate that would have accompanied them otherwise. The transitional financing

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offered by other members in an effort to stabilize the Euro allowed adjustments to proceed more gradually and orderly than they would have without their use of the Euro.

The recent problems in Ireland are due mostly to real estate speculation and balance sheet problems of the country’s financial institutions. The sanitization of these balance sheets requires time and is aided greatly by membership in the ECU, the absence of wild, speculative fluctuations of the exchange rate and transitional financial assistance from member countries.

However, the recent crises surrounding Greece, Ireland and Portugal contain some important lessons for the design of other regional monetary unions. These treaties must rule out the granting of financial assistance to governments engaged in chronic deficit spending by the institutions of the monetary union or any other public collective associated with the union. Under these conditions, capital markets will downgrade the debt of the offending governments, which will raise their cost of borrowing and force them to get their fiscal policies in order long before the deepening of the fiscal problems that were experienced by Greece and Portugal.

Opponents of the Euro and other regional monetary unions also point to the recent fluctuations in the value of the Euro against the dollar and other major currencies as evidence of the failure of such arrangements. Again, this argument is bogus.

Fluctuations in the value of the Euro, while undesirable, leave unaffected the vast bulk of economic and financial activities that involve producers and consumers in member countries. Thus, during the period 2007-2009, trade of the members of the Euro zone with the rest of the world was valued at only 28.6 of the zone’s GDP. This figure is almost identical to the 27.3 for the United States, the domestic economy of which has long been known to be well insulated from the effects of exchange rate changes.

Let me conclude by elaborating briefly on my basic proposition that the creation of regional monetary unions represents a promising path to a global currency. The main point is that countries in a given region are more likely to meet the requirements for the formation of a monetary union the better their citizens get along, trust and understand each other. This condition is a function of the degree to which they enjoy common cultural, political,

economic and linguistic traditions and values and they have commercial, cultural and personal relations among themselves.

By these standards for example, Kazakhstan and its neighbouring former members of the former Soviet Union meet many of the conditions needed for the creation of a successful regional monetary union. The inclusion of the much larger Russia in such a union would have both advantages and costs that need careful evaluation.

By these standards, the Spanish speaking countries of the Caribbean are suitable for the formation of a monetary union, which is still being negotiated. The countries of Central America are similarly suited, as are the countries in the Southern Cone of South America. In both regions conversations about monetary union have taken place but have not involved official negotiations. The Arab Gulf states have many similarities, which have led to treaties for a regional monetary union that failed at the last moment over disagreements on the location of the union’s central bank, which was coveted by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Other regions suitable for monetary unions in Africa are the countries bordering South Africa, the core group of countries consisting of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, and those located in North Africa. The countries of Asia offer a number of intriguing possible regional unions too complex to discuss here.

The tactical issue facing the proponents of regional and global monetary unions assembled here is how to stimulate the needed interest among the countries’ politicians and opinion makers. This is no easy task, given that these elites have to deal many domestic and international conflicts that already absorb most of their time and energy. However, the task is not hopeless and the success of past Astana Economic Forums has shown that it is possible to get these groups of people to meet, discuss and cooperate on many important issues.

Other papers by some of the world’s most distinguished and learned scholars provide insights about monetary unions that are essential for mobilizing a widespread interest in their development. Let us hope that the efforts of these scholars at this year’s meeting will awake the interest of these elites and their attending representatives in the creation of regional monetary unions and the ultimate goal of a single currency for the world.

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A GlOBAl CURRENCY FOR A GlOBAl ECONOMY: GETTING FROM HERE TO THERE

By Warren Coats Governor, Authority Cayman Islands, Consultant and Ex-Deputy Director, International Monetary Fund

IntroductionSince the collapse of the gold standard and the

Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, the resulting international monetary system (IMS) has supported a dramatic growth in world trade and finance reasonably well. Yet the system of market determined or managed exchange rates, which suited well a world of limited international monetary cooperation, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar in international reserves and for international transactions has well known shortcoming and vulnerabilities that have revived the search for a better one.

The weaknesses of the existing system include the asymmetry between the market pressure for deficit countries (other than reserve currency countries) to adjust and the lack of such pressure for surplus countries, and the Triffin dilemma like risk of foreign exchange reserve growth producing an increasingly large foreign holding of reserve currency countries’ debt relative to their size. Less often discussed is the fundamental impediment to the free flow of goods and capital globally on the basis of national currencies, whose exchange rates vary dramatically. The primary supplier of international reserves, the United States, has historically given little attention to the international value of its currency when formulating its monetary and fiscal policies.

According to the IMF: “Sustained government deficits may eventually bring public debt sustainability into

question, undermining the store of value characteristic of reserve assets (by which is meant a stable value of a representative international basket of goods and services)”. However, “More diversified reserve holdings would require the availability of other asset classes that reproduce the desirable characteristics of the dollar in terms of liquidity, safety and yield”.

In an exploratory paper on a possible expanded role for the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the IMF stated that: “Clearly, problems in the international monetary system (IMS)—persistent global imbalances, large and volatile capital flows, exchange rate gyrations disconnected from fundamentals, insufficient supply of safe global assets—are complex and call for an array of remedies—global policy collaboration and stronger surveillance, enhanced systemic financial safety net, financial deepening in emerging markets and more generally development of new reserve assets. The issue is whether there is a helpful role to play for the SDR amid these solutions.”

The IMF and others have explored measures that could reduce the demand for international reserves while increasing a more diversified supply. These deserve serious consideration. However, it is clear that some surplus countries continue to accumulate reserves as a byproduct of a policy of export promotion rather than to satisfy their demand for reserves. Thus more effective surveillance may also be needed. On the supply side, the most promising approach to moderating the demand for and growth of U.S. dollar reserves is to greatly increase the role and use of SDRs, the IMF’s international reserve asset.

The attractiveness and importance of the existing SDR can be greatly enhanced without changes in the Fund’s Articles of Agreement by continuing the relatively large allocations started last year, encouraging the adoption of the SDR unit for pricing and invoicing and of the development and use of SDR denominated financial instruments (“private SDRs”). Clearing and settlement facilities for such SDR instruments and for the SDR currency counterpart would provide a major boost to the expanded use of SDRs as an international reserve asset in all respects. Revival of the old substitution account idea lacks “only” political will and would allow large-scale substitution of U.S. dollar reserves with SDRs without exerting exchange rate pressure on the dollar. A more

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significant reform would allow international commercial banks to hold official SDRs (i.e. open accounts in the SDR Department) thus allowing foreign exchange market intervention in SDRs directly. An all SDR IMF as advocated by J.J. Polak would further expand the use of SDRs. Pegging domestic currencies to the SDR rather than the dollar or euro would often provide increased real effective exchange rate stability and would further increase the demand for and use of SDRs of all types (official and private).

Over time regular allocations, supported by expanded uses of the SDR unit and of private SDRs of all types, could supplement or replace the USD and EURO in the expansion of reserve assets that are expected in coming years. Sufficiently broad acceptance could even reduce the absolute amounts of USD and EURO in reserve holdings thus substituting claims on the IMF’s entire membership for claims on the U.S. or the E.U. Wide spread pegging of national currencies to the SDR would promote global trade emulating the openness of the gold standard era.

None of these ideas is new but have received little traction in the past for lack of political will on the part of the major players. Times and circumstances are different today and perhaps the missing political will can be found. Two further enhancements could significantly improve the SDR’s attractiveness and potentially precipitate a virtuous cycle of its wider adoption as an exchange rate peg, invoicing unit, means of payment, and reserve asset to the extent that dollar holdings in reserves might actually fall. First, the SDR’s valuation basket, though marginally attractive relative to the behavior of a single currency, could be significantly improved giving it a constant real value (to be defined below). Second, allocations could be augmented or replaced with open market sales (and repurchases) of SDRs. Both would require amendments to the IMF’s Articles of Agreement.

The recent IMF papers on the SDR have raise the more radical possibility of issuing an international currency unlinked to the SDR basket - “bancor”. Its value would be determined by its supply and demand, possibly supported by some official uses (as is the demand for existing SDRs). An international central bank issuing a fiat currency would be quite a challenge and is very unlikely to enjoy the broad support necessary for its adoption. An international “currency board,” in which the IMF (or a new International Central Bank) would passively buy or sell SDRs (ala the classical gold standard) at the fixed value of a real SDR basket, would raise far fewer risks and potentially attract more political support. The rest of this paper explores the features of such a currency.

The Real SDR Unit of AccountThe existing SDR has the current market value

of the fixed quantities of the four currencies (USD, EURO, Pound Sterling, and Yen) in its valuation basket. While pricing in or pegging an exchange rate to SDRs

or holding assets denominated in SDRs provide the stabilizing advantages of a portfolio and the transactional efficiencies of a universally fixed and recognized portfolio, these advantages are modest relative to dealing in any one of the four basket currencies. If the SDR’s value were determined by a basket of goods and commodities, it would more closely achieve the goal of being a unit with constant real value. Its value would be anchored to the real economy. This would set it apart from any existing currency and could attract considerable interest for invoicing and denominating assets, and as a currency peg. The gold standard was an example of such a system, but being anchored to only one commodity, whose relative price varied, the real value of currencies fixed to gold was not constant.

In the 1970s and 80s a handful of countries and international organizations fixed their exchange rates to the SDR or adopted it as their unit of account. It finessed the dilemma posed by fixed exchange rate regimes that traded with both the dollar and the Euro blocks, for example, when those exchange rates moved significantly against each other. Over the past ten years the USD/EURO rate has varied from 0.86 to 1.57, almost 100%, which departed widely from fundamentals and poses serious challenges for international trade. Pegging exchange rates to a Real SDR would stabilize terms of trade more than to the current SDR and thus is likely to be attractive to a larger number of countries. Should a large number of countries peg to the Real SDR, something like the global trading system enjoyed under the classical gold standard could be restored.

The manner in which the current SDR is valued facilitates understanding how the SDR could be given a fixed real value. The SDR/USD rate is set every day on the basis of the market value of the amounts of the four currencies in its valuation basket in terms of USD. Holders of SDRs transact at that rate when a rate is needed. When SDR amounts are being settled with SDRs, exchange rates are not needed. But if SDRs or SDR amounts need to be converted to their USD equivalent or the equivalent in any other currency for which there is a market value in terms of USD, its value is given as explained above. The IMF publishes these rates every day. The value of a Real SDR would be determined in the same way except that the valuation basket would consist of a globally representative basket of goods. Its value would thus be constant in terms of the goods in the basket.

Identifying the goods whose collective market value should be constant in SDR terms, i.e. establishing the Real SDR valuation basket, would be a challenging but manageable task. The items in the basket should have well defined market values, be widely and preferably globally traded, and relatively representative of a “typical” family’s expenditures.

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A Real SDR Allocated by the IMFA key point about the existing SDR’s valuation

basket and the Real SDR valuation basket proposed here is that the IMF does not hold, and it is not necessary to hold, actual quantities of the items in the basket. Administratively defining the value of a Real SDR unit of account in this way does not insure, however, that SDR assets issued by the IMF or privately carry the same value in the market.

The “official” SDRs allocated by the IMF (the asset, not the unit of account) are unusual assets in several respects. They have an indefinite and potentially infinite maturity, but can be used on demand, pay the equivalent of a three-month interest rate, and can only be held by central banks (with a few exceptions). The IMF relies on rules and compulsory requirements to keep the value of these SDRs fixed to that of their valuation basket. The official SDR may only be used at its official value. The “designation mechanism”, which obligates IMF members with strong balance of payments to accept SDRs at its official value in exchange for currency, insures that it is always possible for a holder of official SDRs to exchange them for a freely usable currency at the official SDR exchange rate.

Given that the SDR is valued daily in foreign exchange markets, its official value is rarely if ever far from the collective values of the currencies in its valuation basket for which it can always be exchanged. It is also important to note that SDR allocations have always been far below the growth in the demand for international reserve assets. As a result the compulsory designation mechanism has never been stressed by over use and in fact has not be invoked for over a quarter of a century.

While the monetary liabilities of central banks (currency and current account balances of commercial banks) do not pay interest, term deposits with central banks do. In addition, the Federal Reserve in the U.S. now pays interest on bank balances in their current accounts with Federal Reserve Banks in excess of required levels as an instrument of monetary policy. The IMF’s official SDR pays interest at the weighted average of three-month government debt with the same weights as the currencies in its valuation basket. Thus the yield on SDRs is attractive relative other reserve assets that may be used on demand as can the SDR but unattractive relative to assets of longer maturities than three months when the expected holding period is longer. The interest rate on Real SDRs (i.e. the ones allocated by the IMF) could not be set in this way, which raises the important questions of how its rate would be set and how it’s interest payments would be financed.

The official SDR is self-financing. Holdings of SDRs (Real or otherwise) earn interest at the official SDR interest rate. Holdings of SDRs are exactly matched globally by cumulative allocations, which carry a charge at the same rate payable by those to whom they were allocated. Those who hold SDRs equal to what they

were allocated earn interest at the same rate and in the same amount as they pay charges on their allocations. Net use (holdings below allocations) or net acquisitions incur net charges or earn net interest. If Real SDRs are allocated in the same way, whatever interest rate is given to them could be financed in the same way. Interest rates on privately issued Real SDRs would pay interest determined in the same way as for other debt instruments.

SDRs allocated by the IMF are fundamentally different than, say, SDR bonds issued by the United States or any other country. The IMF’s SDRs augment the supply of international reserves with a claim on the IMF (on its entire membership) while those issued by the U.S. would add to the already considerable claims on the U.S. government already held abroad. While development and wide spread use of private SDRs would facilitate the use of and thus the demand for SDRs issued by the IMF as part of international reserve asset holdings, only IMF (or internationally) issued SDRs would substitute for claims on countries or their firms or real estate in the reserve assets of central banks.

Bancor – An SDR CurrencyThe ability to settle market transactions with “SDRs”

directly without first exchanging them for USD or EURO would further enhance the attractiveness of official (allocated) SDRs as reserve assets. Such an SDR would take the form of current account balances with the issuer (the IMF or a third party clearing bank such as the BIS). Account holders might be limited to IMF members as now or could be opened to all international banks. A two or three-tiered structure could be used to tie all banks into the system for the clearing and settlement of SDR payments.

Unlike official SDRs allocated by the IMF, SDR currency would be issued by the IMF (or some other international body) in exchange for financial instruments such as high quality government debt. Its value would equal the value of the Real SDR valuation basket only if its supply matched the market’s demand for it at that price.

Some central banks, known loosely as “currency boards”, now operate in such a way as to guarantee that the market value of the currency they create and issue is equal to its fixed posted value (an exchange rate for some other currency-usually the USD or the EURO). The required supply of such currencies is regulated by the market via the central bank’s commitment to buy and sell its currency for the foreign anchor currency at the fixed posted price. The SDR currency’s value could be kept equal to its fixed real value (i.e. the value of its valuation basket) in the same way. The IMF would stand ready to passively buy or sell its SDR currency (balances in member central banks’ SDR currency accounts with the IMF) for a select list of eligible assets (e.g., U.S. Japanese, UK and EU government debt securities) at the market value of one real SDR. Like the reserve or

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base money issued by central banks, SDR currency would not pay interest.

Real SDR currency issued by the IMF according to currency board rules would thus have the same value as the Real SDR valuation basket within a very small margin. Whenever the SDR market prices of the goods in the basket resulted in a market value of the basket below one SDR, it would be profitable for banks to arbitrage the difference by selling an eligible asset to the IMF for SDRs at the official price and buying it back in the market at the cheaper market price. The supply of SDRs (and market prices) would increase. If the market value of the basket rose above one SDR banks would do the reverse, thus reducing the supply of SDRs.

The assets held by the IMF against the SDR currency it has issued would be the eligible government debt it had purchased when selling its SDRs. These assets would earn interest from which the IMF’s operations could be financed and any valuation gains or losses relative to the valuation basket defined value of its SDR liabilities could be covered. In an all SDR world, one in which all countries have pegged their currencies to the SDR or used it directly, the only valuation risks to the eligible SDR denominated debt would arise from changes in interest rates. Thus the IMF’s holdings of such debt should have short maturities.

It is useful to compare the international Real SDR currency board with a classical gold standard. In its purest form, currency was issued in exchange for gold at a fixed price with the obligation to redeem it on demand for gold at the same price (with a modest bid ask spread). The currency issuer had to maintain an inventory of gold equal in value to its currency liabilities. Currency was passively supplied in response to market demand, but its value varied with changes in the relative price of gold. The supply of Real SDR currency would also be determined by market demand, but the issuer would hold and deal in eligible government debt against its SDR currency liabilities rather than the items in the valuation basket (i.e. rather than gold). Arbitrage and the redemption obligation would keep the market value of Real SDRs equal to the market value of their valuation basket. Relative price changes of items in the valuation basket would not affect the market value of the SDR, which would be fixed to the value of the entire basket.

ConclusionThe classical gold standard was good for long run

monetary stability and trade. The disciplining effect of national money redeemable for gold at a fixed price and the availability of a world money (or fixed exchange rates between national currencies) in which to price and settle external trade contributed to trades rapid growth in the late 19th century. “What made the upward leap in international trade, the creation of an integrated world economy--a world economy where for the first time trade was not confined to luxuries and intoxicants but extended to staples and necessities--possible in the years before

World War I? Falling costs of ocean transportation was one major factor. The development and extension of the international political and economic order called the gold standard was another”.

While the year-to-year value of money varied considerably under the gold standard in the United States, its value was essentially the same at the beginning of World War II as it had been at the beginning of the Civil War or the beginning of the Union, a two-hundred-year period. Since the beginning of World War II, however, the value of money has fallen to about 12 percent of its previous value (that is, prices have risen by a factor of more than 8). However, because of the variability of gold supplies and thus its price, both prices and real output were more variable in the short term during the gold standard years than after.

These shortcomings of the gold standard and the high resource cost of storing gold, would be overcome by an international currency issued and redeemed at a fixed price for eligible government debt at a price fixed to the market value of a large basket of internationally traded goods (a Real SDR currency board). Such an international currency would have a number of important benefits.

a) It would relieve the pressure on the United States to supply dollar assets to satisfy the demands by other countries for international reserves. In the extreme and over time it could replace the U.S. dollar as the unit of account, means of payment and store of value (reserve asset) for international transactions.

b) For countries pegging their own currencies to the Real SDR or using it directly, international prices would become much more stable, facilitating the further extension of the gains from trade. A Real SDR could attract a large number of countries to peg the exchange rates of their currencies to the Real SDR, thus reestablishing a truly global currency for global trade.

c) Global liquidity would automatically become countercyclical and thus stabilizing. “This idea [of a commodity standard], which goes back to Keynes’ Treatise on Money, had interesting countercyclical features: world liquidity would automatically increase during global business downswings, which tended to depress commodity prices, and automatically decreased during business upswings, when commodity prices boomed.”

Real SDRs issued under these rules would have enormous advantages and minimal risks. It should be possible to establish sufficient political support to amend the IMF’s articles to approve such a system. While the United States and the European Union would loose some of the privileges they now enjoy as a result of being able to borrow and transact internationally in their own currencies, they would also be relieved of the growing concern over the sustainability of their growing debt burdens as suppliers of international reserves.

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References:

1.Bordo, Michael D., Gold Standard, the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, Library of Economics and Liberty. http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html

2.Clark P., Polak J., 2004, “International Liquidity and the Role of the SDR in the International Monetary System”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers Vol. 51 (1).

3.Coats W., 1982, «The SDR as a Means of Payment,» IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 29, No. 3 September, (reprinted in Spanish in Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos Boletin, Vol. XXIX, Numero 4, Julio–Agosto de 1983).

4.Coats W., with William J. Byrne, 1984, «The Special Drawing Right: Composite Currencies: SDR, ECU, and Other Instruments,» Euromoney, 1984.

5.Coats W., 1990, «Enhancing the Attractiveness of the SDR,» World Development, Vol. 18, No. 7, July.6.Coats W., 1992, «Developing a Market for the Official SDR,» Current Legal Issues Affecting Central Banks,

Volume 1, Washington: International Monetary Fund, May.7.Coats W., 1994, «In Search of a Monetary Anchor: A New Monetary Standard,» Occasional Papers Number 48,

International Center for Economic Growth (San Francisco) January. http://works.bepress.com/warren_coats/3/8.Coats W., 1994a, «In Search of a Monetary Anchor: Commodity Standards Reexamined,» in Framework for

Monetary Stability, ed. by T. J. Bali o and C. Cottarelli, Washington: International Monetary Fund.9.Coats W., 2010, «Time for a New Global Currency?» New Global Studies 3.1 (2010). Available at: http://works.

bepress.com/warren_coats/110.Cooper R, 2006, “Proposal for a Common Currency among Rich Democracies”, International Economics and

Economic Policy, Vol. 3, December.11.DeLong, J. Bradford, 1997 “International Finance” http://econ161.berkeley.edu/TCEH/Slouch_Gold8.html 12.Hart A.G., Kaldor N. and Tinbergen J. 1964. The Case for an International Commodity Reserve Currency.

Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.13.Hoguet G., and Tadesse S., 2009, “The Role of SDR-Denominated Securities in Official and Private Portfolios,”

State Street Global Advisors, November 3.14.International Monetary Fund, 2010, “Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability”, http://www.

imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2010/041310.pdf 15.International Monetary Fund, 2010a, “Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability:

Supplementary Information”,http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2010/041310a.pdf 16.International Monetary Fund, 2011, «Enhancing International Monetary Stability--Is there a Role for the SDR?»,

January 7. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/010711.pdf 17.Mundell R., 2009, Financial Crises and the International Monetary System, Columbia University (http://www.

normangirvan.info/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/mundell.pdf).18.Ocampo J., 2009 “Special Drawing Rights and the Reform of the Global Reserve System” G24. www.g24.org/

jao0909.pdf 19.Polak Jacques J. (1979). Thoughts on an International Monetary Fund based fully on SDR. Pamphlet Series

No. 28, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.20.Truman Edwin M., 2010, “Strengthening IMF Surveillance: A Comprehensive Proposal” Peterson Institute for

International Economics, Policy Brief, Number PB 10-29, December21.Williamson J., 2009, “Why SDRs Could Rival the Dollar”, Peterson Institute for International Economics,

Number PB 09 - 20, September, http://www.iie.com/publications/pb/pb09-20.pdf

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COUlD THE DOllAR ERA END IN GlOBAl INFlATION?

By Domingo CavalloChairman, DFC Associates LLC, Ex-Minister of Economy of Argentina

This is the question I am more frequently asked in discussions on the future of the Global Economy. Those that ask me this question assume that being an Argentinean I should be more aware than other economists of what

policy mistakes can increase the risk of inflation.In answering this question I start saying that I am

not pessimist on the future of the market economic system. So far, the market economic system has been expanding and spreading all over the world. Even in ostensibly communist China, the economic system has become more and more market oriented in the sense of using markets and economic incentives associated with well defined property rights to produce and distribute goods and services that satisfy people’s needs.

In general, the market economic system has improved the standard of living of billions of people and has helped to reduce poverty during the last two centuries. The contribution of the market economic system to increase people’s welfare came mainly from a particular kind of entrepreneurship that flourishes under its reign: an entrepreneurship that pushes the adoption of efficient innovations and helps to spread them in all productive activities across all corners of the world.

There have been past crises and exceptions, but crises and exceptions have, more frequently than not, helped to correct the wrong courses and to revive the market economy in a more responsible and sustainable trend.

There is, nevertheless, the risk that the crisis that started in the US in 2008 may push the global market economy into a labyrinth. That risk is no other than the Dollar Era ending into a global inflationary process.

I will use my knowledge of Argentina’s history and my experience in managing its economy during the nineties, to identify the risks that the global economy is facing today. I will also identify the wrong policy approaches that have to be avoided in order to make the market economy sustainable and more socially responsible.

Argentina offers lessons in “what not to do” and explains what can cause the market economy to fail, because unfortunately my country is one of the few exceptions in the general successful experience of capitalism as a social system. Argentina was an early

capitalist success story which together with that of the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand followed the steps of the process that started in Great Britain in the nineteen century and generated the first big wave of globalization. But from the mid forties of the Twentieth Century, Argentine market economy started a long term decline that, even with all the aggressive economic market oriented reforms of the nineties has not yet been reversed.

Why did it happen? Why did a country in which efficient and innovative entrepreneurship had previously flourished and transformed its agriculture into a world power failed to build on its success? The answer is simple: Argentina failed due to persistent use of inflation as an instrument to soften the burden of private and public excessive indebtness.

In Argentina, since the mid forties until now (with the only exception of the nineties) equity capital was eroded by arbitrary taxation and expropriation; and debts were, most of the time, not paid but inflated away. Even in 2002, after 10 years of successful stabilization and renewed growth, the recession that was caused by very unfavorable terms of trade since 1999 and excessive leverage of the provinces, was “resolved” by abandoning monetary discipline, inflating away domestic debts and defaulting on the foreign debt. That is why today -after eight years of very favorable external conditions the Argentine economy is suffering again from persistent inflation. This is a clear signal that its rapid growth of the last eight years is non-sustainable and poverty is aggravating.

Argentinean bad experience offers lessons for the current state of the global economy. It is relevant in the sense of indicating what mistakes have to be avoided as we emerge from the current global crisis.

The crisis that started in the US in 2008 was the consequence of excessive leverage.

In some countries it was excessive leverage at the level of families and businesses, in other countries it was excessive leverage at the level of governments and in most places, excessive leverage of the financial intermediaries. This excessive leverage, particularly that of households and corporations was encouraged by taxation and regulation that discriminated against equity capital and provided encouragement to debt financing. Excessive leverage of financial intermediates may have been the result of greed and lax regulations on capital requirements. Excessive leverage of governments was primarily due to rapidly increasing public expenditure,

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tax evasion and bail outs of private debt, including those of financial institutions. In this sense we can say that the significant parts of the global economy have been infected of the “Argentine Economic Disease”.

The big risk for the future arises from the possibility that governments, financial institutions and big businesses finally decide that the solution is also to deal with it the “Argentinean way”, that is, inflating the debt away and generalizing default. This is a relevant warning these days. Look at the policies that are being implemented in the US, the economy that provides the most important global currency and listen to the proposals of leading American economists. They propose increasing the inflation target to 4-5 % annually, for several years, in order to generate negative real interest rates and soften the burden of debts.

It will not be easy for Europe, the UK and other advanced economies to counteract with their local monetary policies the excessively expansionary monetary policy of the FED. Keeping locally monetary restraints may generate excessive appreciation of their respective currencies and make even more difficult to prevent financial crisis of their own. So, there is the risk that monetary policies became globally very expansionary and inflation becomes a persistent phenomenon all over the world. In that case the Dollar Era may end in global inflation.

Inflation makes ample room for unethical behavior, corruption and widespread inefficiency. Inflation

destroys entrepreneurial spirits and feeds destabilizing speculation. That would be a dangerous course for global capitalism: a socially unjust and politically unsustainable course for the economic system that for two centuries served humanity well.

Fortunately there is an alternative solution to the excessive leverage that provoked the global crisis.

Instead of inflating away debts and generalizing default, national states and global institutions could work together to encourage equity capital to reinforce viable corporations, both financial and non financial, and to facilitate the creation of new ventures.

At the same time, regulations that limit leverage and elimination of tax incentives for debt financing should reverse the past trend to excessive leverage.

To cope with the debt problems that created the current crisis, the solutions should not be “bails outs” that simply transform private debts into public debts but “bails in” through orderly processes of debt restructuring. Governments and International Financial Institutions should concentrate their interventions in the financial field primarily on facilitating the debt restructuring processes and not bail out creditors that took excessive risks.

For the future, an international monetary system that offers a global currency to target global inflation and protects monetary reserves from national inflationary pressures, will encourage “bails in” rather than inflationary “bail outs” as the solution for debt crises.

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EUROlAND: WIll THE PERIPHERY POISON THE CORE?

By James W. DeanThe College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USASimon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

The central message of this essay is that the interaction of three well known theoretical phenomena – the currency trilemma, Belassa-Samuel-son-induced inflation, and absence of optimum currency area criteria (ie labor immobility and wage and price inflexibility) - sowed seeds of inevitable financial crises in the euro-

zone, seeds that should have been foreseen in the abstract by any good economist. Any good economist should have factored in moral hazard incentives due to the euro-zone’s explicit guarantee on currency risk, and also due to its implicit guarantee on default risk. It was virtually inevitable in the absence of policies restricting speculative capital inflows to the private sector, and/or fiscal restraint by their governments that peripheral countries adopting the euro would experience excessive capital inflows.

The Economist chooses major European economies to list in its weekly report of stock market performance. In 2010, just seven of them showed positive growth, ranging from Turkey at the top to Switzerland, just positive. Remarkably, all seven were non euro countries. The euro area average was -11.3, with Greece worst and Germany least worst at -2.6%. The Economist’s forecasts of output growth for 2011 in the euro-zone range from -3.5% for Greece to 1.9% for Germany, in contrast to forecasts of 1.9% or above for five of the seven non-euro countries.

These data of course have limited meaning outside the context of the global financial meltdown of 2007 – 09 that was followed by the financial crises in euro-zone periphery countries throughout 2010. And they also beg for placement in a theoretical context.

Conventional theoretical criticism of the euro project during the 1990s centered on Robert Mundell’s optimum currency area criteria: the absence of labor mobility, wage and price flexibility, common business cycles, supply side structures and demand side shocks, etc. This panoply of objections to the euro projects were of course not his – he was the first to propose a common currency as early as 1970 and has been a strong advocate ever since - rather, they were the objections of the many who use his analytical framework.

Since Mundell was writing in an era of restricted capital mobility, the potential for financial crises due to “overborrowing and overlending” was not an issue. It was however well understood during the 1990s, after full blown capital mobility had been restored, that the euro project was subject to the currency trilemma: a common currency with capital mobility did not permit independent national monetary policies. It was also understood, though not considered particularly problematic, that the poorer countries of Europe – Portugal, Spain, Greece and Central and Eastern Europe – might be subject to the Belassa-Samuelson problem of rapid productivity growth in tradeables spilling over into inflation in nontradeables.

Two euro-zone countries – Greece and Ireland - have now experienced financial crises, Spain and Portugal are on the brink, and some people worry about Italy too. Three non-euro countries in Central and Eastern Europe have also experienced crisis: Hungary and Latvia both got IMF bailouts before Greece and Ireland; tough little Estonia did not hold its hand out but in 2009 experienced a 15% contraction in real output, cut its budget by 9% of GDP, and held its peg to the euro. On January 1 2011 it actually adopted the euro, as scheduled.

In this paper I suggest that unforeseen interaction between the absence of optimum currency area criteria, Belassa-Samuelson problems, and unregulated capital flows lay at the root of the financial crises that now plague, or threaten to plague, the euro-zone’s periphery countries. Moreover, interaction between these three well-known phenomena was not sufficient for most economists to forecast the crisis because they neglected to factor in the phenomena that we now know lead to financial crises: notably, moral hazard in the presence of implicit bailouts of both lenders and borrowers, accompanied by lack of regulation and supervision to counter the moral hazard incentives to over-borrow and over-lend. In short, unregulated capital flows into unregulated banks were at the heart of the euro-crisis. And last but not least, this was seriously compounded by contagion: problems in Greece helped trigger problems in Ireland, then thence in Spain and Portugal.

I turn first to the optimum currency area criteria, or, rather, their absence.

Absence of Optimum Currency Area CriteriaThe criterion that proved the Achilles heel for

peripheral countries was downward rigidity in wage and price inflation. This is not a problem for wage-disciplined countries that also experience rapid productivity growth. Germany is the prime example. Ireland and Spain are

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the prime examples of countries that experienced rapid productivity growth but also inflation, both in their non-tradeables sectors and in their assets. Greece is the prime example of the deadly combination of low productivity growth combined with undisciplined inflation, particularly in non-tradeables, including government services.

Hungary is the prime example of a country that experienced financial crisis because of old-fashioned currency inflation: it had not yet adopted the euro but borrowed in euros on the assumption it could afford to repay, but could not when the floren inflated against the euro. Latvia, like Estonia chose to take its reversal of capital inflows in painful contraction of output.

Now to the second theoretical proposition that lay at the root of the euro-periphery’s problems:

Belassa-Samuelson wage and price spilloversIn a country like Ireland or Spain that experiences

high productivity growth in tradeables, wage increases in the tradeables sectors will likely spill over into non-tradeables sectors. This is a usual problem in “periphery” countries that are catching up to the “core”, and it is not necessarily problematic. However if the relatively slow-productivity-growth non-tradeables sector is a large fraction of GDP – as are services and construction sectors in Ireland – the result will be substantial aggregate price inflation. This is what happened in Ireland and Spain: moreover, inflation in construction reinforced real estate inflation, and vice versa, as speculative building began. And crucially, this asset inflation was fuelled by capital inflows, particularly into banks.

In Greece, wage and price inflation in excess of productivity gains was exacerbated by a bloated public sector buttressed by entrenched unions. Funding the public sector via sovereign debt proved all too easy given the free ride on the euro borrowing that eliminated currency risk and that naively minimized expected default risk.

Hungary also experienced wage and price inflation in excess of productivity gains, plus a bloated public sector, exacerbated in its case by entrenched socialist traditions. And although euro-denominated sovereign debt was not as easy for Hungary to sell as for members of the euro-zone, the temptation for households and firms to borrow in euros rather than floren proved irresistible. When the floren plummeted, borrowers’ obligations in floren skyrocketed, and by 2009 Hungary was in full-blown financial crisis. Indeed, Hungary was the first European country to require IMF funding.

Now to the third theoretical proposition that lay at the root of Europe’s problems: the currency trilemma.

Currency trilemmaThough a country that is part of a common currency

and open to capital flows cannot run its own monetary policy, it is often forgotten that it does not necessarily simply import its neighbors’ inflation rates. On the contrary, it can be subject to severe inflationary pressures if it is either booming relative to the rest of the euro-zone– like

Ireland – or fiscally irresponsible relative to the rest of the euro-zone – like Greece or Spain. In either case, nominal interest rates rise above the euro-zone average, and the domestic money supply grows faster than the euro-zone average. Moreover sterilization via open market sales of central bank assets is not possible because there is no central bank.

Parenthetically, even China, which is more or less pegged to the US dollar but does have its own currency and central bank, is unable to sterilize sufficiently to prevent inflation. Hence it has begun to raise interest rates – but this may not help because it will probably encourage further capital inflows. If China is to continue to peg to the US dollar, and wishes also to avert inflation, it has no choice but to restrict capital inflows and/or to employ other non-market tools to restrict the money supply: for example, high reserve requirements on banks, or quantitative ceilings on lending.

Restricting capital inflowsI will argue that the core preventative cure – the

core prophylactic if you like - in euro-zone economies heading for trouble because of over-borrowing should be to restrict capital inflows, and/or to restrict borrowing, which amounts to the same thing. This should be done when there are ex ante signs of over-borrowing.

What constitutes over-borrowing is of course never certain until the day of reckoning comes. Nevertheless there are early warning signs. If by over-borrowing we mean borrowing more than can be repaid, the typical early warning signs are widening interest rate spreads over the most credit-worthy debt, in this context Germany’s, and/or widening spreads in the inter-bank market. For example in the case of Greece, what began in early 2010 with widening spreads on sovereign debt quickly mushroomed into a banking crisis as Greek banks found it hard to roll over their wholesale deposit borrowing from foreign banks. In Ireland, the problem actually began as an inter-bank rollover problem.

If however by over-borrowing we mean capital inflows that lead to repayment problems because of a collapse in collateral, then the early warning signs are inflation, particularly inflation in asset prices. Before it hit the wall Ireland had both wage and price inflation and asset inflation. By the way, before the US hit the wall, it had only asset inflation.

One market mechanism for curtailing excessive capital inflows is currency depreciation – or more precisely an expectation of currency depreciation over the maturity horizon of the capital inflow. In that case the market puts a currency risk premium on the borrower’s debt. But this mechanism will be blocked with a fixed rate or a common currency. The euro-zone, in effect provides an explicit promise of a fixed rate.

A second market mechanism is the expectation that, with some probability, the debt will default, leading to a default risk premium on the borrower’s debt. In the euro-zone, this mechanism was also blocked – or at least

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severely impeded - by its implicit promise of bailouts in the case of default.

These promises – the explicit one of a fixed exchange rate and the implicit one of bailouts - underwrote the incentives for Greece’s government and Ireland’s banks to borrow far more than they should have.

Three policy prescriptions for regulating private sector capital flows

The general lessons to be drawn about regulating capital flows are as follows.

First, in a common currency zone, capital flows do need to be monitored, and under some circumstances and into some countries slowed down because of the twin moral hazards of currency risk guarantees and implicit expectations of bailouts – i.e., implicit guarantees. The implicit guarantees will persist well beyond the current crisis because of the EU’s bailout fund that has been set up for the next three years will almost certainly have its life extended, and also because, insistence from Germany notwithstanding, any burden sharing in the form of “haircuts” imposed on investors by ex ante clauses in the debt contracts will be just that: burden sharing with both borrowers and with the euro-zone at large.

Hence some moral hazard is inevitable, just as it is with bank deposit insurance or with any of the myriad of schemes for providing emergency lending that the IMF has devised. And in the absence of some kind of non-market discipline, capital inflows will periodically overshoot, causing either inflation in goods, services and assets, partial defaults, or both.

The second policy lesson is that the prescription for deterring private sector inflows is different from that for public sector inflows. Private sector inflows may be into banks or into bonds. The most effective instrument to deter capital inflows into banks is to impose punitive withdrawal penalties over an appropriate horizon: one month, one year or even more. Since at least the 1990s, countries like Chile and Malaysia have successfully used this instrument without significantly deterring long run inflows that are directed to productive uses, although their useful does diminish over time and typically they need to be phased in and out as circumstances dictate.

The third lesson is that Brussels and Frankfurt must struggle to find a delicate balance between uniform, euro-zone-wide regulation, and national regulation enforced by domestic governments. Happily, countries in the euro-zone are still able to impose their own commercial bank regulation. Indeed, a danger of the current rush in Brussels to impose common bank regulation on all euro-zone countries – as embodied in the “Lamfalussy” framework of the early 2000s, followed by the more recent “de Larosire” framework of the late 2000s - is that Brussels could over-ride the ability of individual countries to discourage capital inflows when needed.

But whereas Germany or even France are prone to favor common regulation that penalizes un-prudential

ex ante behavior by borrowers, that allows for ex post haircuts on lenders, and that limits promises of ex post bailouts, these “core” countries are unlikely to support common, euro-zone-wide bank regulation that includes restriction on withdrawals of short term capital inflows. This is a good thing. Interference with cross-border capital flows should be the exception rather than the rule, and it should be left to the discretion of periphery borrowing countries. Nevertheless early warning systems to trigger such regulation should be part of the coordination efforts from Brussels and Frankfurt.

Deterring short term capital flows via bond markets – both in and out is more difficult since bonds are by nature less easy to regulate. The famous and much maligned Tobin tax on foreign exchange transactions wouldn’t work since movements within the euro-zone involve no foreign exchange transactions.

For public sector inflows, deterrence is much more straightforward, at least in theory. Governments simply need to stop borrowing to cover their expenditures. Fiscal deficits need to be reduced, either by cutting spending, raising taxes, or both. That is the core policy challenge for Greece. Short of fiscal union across the euro-zone, this kind of prudence can come only from individual countries themselves, not from Brussels.

In summaryThe central message of this essay is that the

interaction of three well known theoretical phenomena – the currency trilemma, Belassa-Samuelson-induced inflation, and absence of optimum currency area criteria (i.e. labor immobility and wage and price inflexibility) - sowed seeds of inevitable financial crises in the euro-zone, seeds that should have been foreseen in the abstract by any good economist. Any good economist should have factored in moral hazard incentives due to the euro-zone’s explicit guarantee on currency risk, and also due to its implicit guarantee on default risk. It was virtually inevitable in the absence of policies restricting speculative capital inflows to the private sector, and/or fiscal restraint by their governments that peripheral countries adopting the euro would experience excessive capital inflows.

The euro-zone’s explicit and implicit guarantees introduce disincentives to take into account the negative externalities that domestic borrowing in euros might impose on creditor euro-zone countries. In other words, domestic households and firms, along with banks as their intermediaries, have an incentive to free ride on the guarantee that euro-zone creditors provide in the form of zero currency risk. They also have an incentive to free ride on the euro-zone’s implicit promise of bailouts in the case of default.

These implicit promises underwrote the incentives for Greece’s government and Ireland’s banks to borrow far more than they should have. But the regulatory message is still country-specific. Greece needed a clearer message from Brussels and Frankfurt about their

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willingness to impose haircuts on lenders and / or to be lenders of last resort. Indeed, despite its long-standing repudiation of lender-of last resort responsibility, the European Central Bank was the first and quickest to lend to Greece, the moment it began buying Greek sovereign bonds. Ireland also needed clear messages from Brussels and Frankfurt, but first and foremost needed national regulation to deter inflows of speculative capital. In particular, Ireland would have done well with ex ante punitive penalties on premature withdrawals of wholesale bank deposits.

It’s not clear even among crisis countries that «one size fits all» regulation is the answer. Superficially, the triggers for financial crises were different from country to country: in Greece it was the prospect of default on sovereign borrowing, whereas in Ireland it was the

prospect of illiquidity or even insolvency by banks that had borrowed on behalf of the private sector. In both Ireland and Spain the inflows fuelled real estate and other asset bubbles that burst. But the root cause in all cases was excessive capital inflows that could have been deterred either via fiscal restraint, regulation of borrowing by commercial banks, or both. In short, Brussels and Frankfurt should impose uniform regulation and supervision on some activities but not all, and not in all circumstances or on all countries. Moreover they should produce clear-cut early warning signals and mechanisms for ex ante restriction of capital flows when called for, but also clear-cut pre-announced rules about the balance between ex post bailouts and haircuts on investors.

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TOWARD A COMMON CURRENCY lINKED BY GOlD

By Judy SheltonSenior Fellow, Atlas Economic Research Foundation; Co-Director, Sound Money Project, USA

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the tendency of analysts is to sort out causes and the instinct of government is to assign blame. Regulatory failures are cited; more authority should thus be extended to the Federal Reserve to cast a wider net over financial institutions. Compensation packages are faulted; banking and finance executives should therefore have salaries and bonuses reconfigured so as to discourage excessive risk-taking behavior.

The problem is that shallow remedies of this sort ignore the most fundamental component of international finance. They do nothing to address the most basic element, the money itself, which defines the terms of any economic transaction, and which provides the means for evaluating risk and reward. No financial instrument, no contract between lenders and borrowers, can be structured without stipulating the monetary unit of account in which its value is calculated. Money is the medium of exchange – the standard of measurement, the store of value – that defines the very substance of the agreement between buyer and seller.

It is the money that is brokenCan it be fixed? So long as the world’s most

dominant currency for settling accounts, the U.S. dollar, is perceived to serve as a default mechanism for accommodating domestic fiscal shortfalls rather than providing a meaningful measure of global purchasing power, there can be no real solution to financial calamity. Indeed, we can hardly embrace the notion of a genuinely competitive global marketplace in the absence of a common monetary point of reference for determining value.

In this paper, I will suggest an approach to international monetary reform aimed at restoring the original purpose of money as a unit of account. The objective is to utilize the remarkably stable value of gold – through time and across borders – to provide a monetary anchor consistent with the principles of open global trade.

What Monetary Reform Can and Cannot Accomplish

While it may seem an obviously worthwhile goal to aspire toward a more stable monetary system, the meaning of money has been so compromised by government intervention in pursuit of domestic aims – using monetary “stimulus” to reduce unemployment, or purposefully “constricting” economic activity through high interest rates – that this most basic objective has been subordinated to presumably loftier notions of improving public welfare through monetary illusion.

To get back to the fundamental purpose of achieving a more stable monetary system, which should be seen as the primary goal of global monetary reform, we need first to acknowledge the two most egregious shortcomings of today’s “non-system” of currency relations. Exchange-rate volatility. Unpredictable swings in exchange rates undermine pro-ductive activity and distort price signals to the detriment of achieving optimal economic returns from comparative advantage. Gains from international trade and finance cannot be fully realized in the absence of a common monetary unit of account that conveys accurate and reliable price signals to producers and consumers, investors and entrepreneurs. For all the emphasis on reducing tariffs to “level the playing field” in the global marketplace, the impact of unpredictable exchange rates does far more damage, in economic and political terms, to international relations and aspirations for global harmony. How can the U.S. champion the cause of free trade, exhorting other nations to rid themselves of protectionist measures – and then claim that U.S. exports are becoming “more competitive” as the dollar sinks? That’s not competing. It’s cheating.

Unreliable Reserves. Contrary to academic expectations, floating rates have not eliminated the need for nations to accumulate foreign reserves to defend their own currencies. Quite the opposite has occurred; massive stockpiles of major global currencies, largely dollars, are hoarded by countries wishing to avoid painful adjustment costs or unwelcome conditions that might be imposed by the International Monetary Fund to receive emergency loans.

This is effectively dead money – not available for productive domestic investment and mostly loaned back to the U.S. to fund our own yawning budget deficit (at rates of return wholly reflective of the perquisites of global power). Governments, such as those of Russia and China, daring to chase higher returns offered on debt issued by quasi-public housing agencies on the assumption they were equally “riskless” instruments have since learned otherwise. To add insult to injury, the value of the underlying security itself, i.e., dollar-denominated debt passively erodes to the extent the dollar depreciates against global commodities.

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Monetary reform should seek to address both these major challenges by reconciling the aims of free trade and free capital flows with an appropriate monetary regime and by furnishing a reserve asset that can be trusted to function as a store of value. Stable money, as defined in terms of constant purchasing power, is the intrinsic solution to both problems.

What monetary reform should not attempt to resolve are matters involving so-called “global public goods” aimed at improving the future of the planet, or to redress perceived global inequities through multinational government intervention to redistribute economic resources.

Money is a tool, not a panaceaIf we believe that humans are capable of tackling

important issues of social justice, consumer protection, and environmental stewardship – and if we further believe that free market mechanisms make it possible to align private incentive with social need in ways conducive to fostering innovative and progressive solutions – then providing the best tool, i.e., stable global money, is a vital task in itself.

laying the Groundwork for GoldThe Federal Reserve has not shown itself to be

sufficiently omniscient to calibrate the money supply to the economic activity of society. Part of the reason in inherent in the statement – which society? If we are referring to the U.S. alone, then decades of subdued inflation culminating in a debilitating crash qualifies as “mixed results” at best.

But of course, the global reserve status of the dollar means that monetary policy conceived in Washington has consequences for the world. If the current crisis can be traced to overly loose monetary policy late in the Alan Greenspan era – and that is the general consensus – then the rest of the world would be justified in abandoning the Fed-managed dollar as a reliable currency.

The fact that no one is actually forced to use the dollar, that its reserve currency usage is entirely voluntary, presents an ironic dilemma in both institutional and psychological terms (to which I will presently return).

For now, it is interesting to note that Mr. Greenspan, testifying before members of Congress during his tenure as Fed chairman, stated on numerous occasions that a successful central bank endeavors to “replicate what a gold standard would itself generate” in terms of avoiding excessive liquidity. Clearly, with the price of gold reaching record highs of late, the link between money creation and the value of gold has been broken. And whether it was ever an implicit rule in Greenspan’s mind during earlier periods of his reign, a “gold price target” was never explicitly adopted by the Fed.

What I propose is to leapfrog such a step in favor of bringing in the wisdom of the market – the aggregate expectations of those who actually utilize the dollar in their economic and financial endeavors – as a check on the fallibility of the Federal Reserve. At the same time,

I would bind Fed performance with regard to achieving a stable dollar through contractual arrangements; specifically, by structuring a new class of debt obligations that would guarantee the purchasing power of the dollar in terms of gold.

Before outlining the general features of such an instrument, it is important to stipulate that this approach is meant to be the first salvo in a concerted effort to build a stable global monetary system. As mentioned earlier, the dollar’s status as the world’s most convenient and preferred reserve currency grants it a residual privilege, certainly, but its use is not required. People choose to hold dollars and dollar-denominated securities around the world because there is a powerful emotional and practical attachment to the bank notes and broader debt obligations of the world’s most powerful country.

Which is why the first marker for sound money should be established by the United States. As a conscious sign that the monumental deficits and unprecedented levels of government debt now clouding the fiscal future of the U.S. will not be solved through inflation – insidiously chipping away at purchasing power to alleviate our financial burden – a limited issuance of gold-backed Treasury notes should be offered to U.S. citizens.

If we do this, it will be seen as a commitment to maintaining the value of the dollar and will function as a barometer on the credibility of the Fed’s exit strategy. And while the initial offering should comply with existing legal restrictions pertaining to U.S. Savings Bonds – i.e., to own U.S. Savings Bonds you must be a U.S. resident or U.S. citizen living abroad (with a U.S. address of record), and have been issued a Social Security Number – it will serve as a bellwether for broader public demand and for potential institutional and global demand.

To introduce such an instrument, Congress should pass legislation – “The Honest Dollar Act” – authorizing the issuance of five-year Treasury notes that pay no interest but provide for payment of principal at maturity in either ounces of gold or the face value of the security, at the option of the holder. If deficit reduction has been sufficiently achieved over the life of the instrument to stem inflationary fears, or if deflation has proved to be the greater threat, holders of gold-backed Treasury obligations will likely have no incentive to redeem in gold; after all, gold pays no interest and normally engenders warehousing costs. But the right to convert the face value of the note for gold at a fixed rate – for example, $1,800 per troy ounce – conveys a trust-but-verify provision that performs the same service, albeit in more substantive terms, as does inflation-indexed Treasury obligations.

U.S. citizens will rightly see that gold-backed notes represent an insurance policy against fiscal irresponsibility and a diminished dollar. The U.S. government will indeed risk having to pay off in actual ounces of gold any note holders who exercise the option at maturity; setting aside a portion of U.S. gold holdings – say, some 12 million ounces (less than five percent of

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U.S. official gold holdings) – to provide adequate cover for the proposal would be accepted as a proper sign of fiscal rectitude.

The limited issuance and restricted purchasing access (for example, Series EE Savings Bonds are subject to maximum purchase of $5,000 per calendar year per entity) ensures limited liability to the U.S. government – i.e., the difference between the dollar price of gold at the time of issuance versus the time of maturity, which is comparable to the exchange rate risk of Treasury securities denominated in foreign currencies during the 1970s. And the fact that 261 million ounces of gold held by the U.S. as official reserve assets are valued at $42.22 per ounce on Treasury statements, as compared to current market value some 35 times greater, provides considerable protection against the financial impact of possible losses.

Still, pledging a nation’s “family jewels” for the sake of restoring monetary integrity is a dramatic step. And that is the whole point: If the government is overly concerned about the prospect of having to redeem in gold, it means the national currency is already destined to lose its purchasing power. Auction bidding for initial and subsequent annual issuances of gold-backed Treasury notes will reveal the level of public confidence in fiat dollar obligations versus gold, with yield spreads clearly reflecting aggregate expectations of their comparative medium-term values. At worst, the U.S. government will collect a hefty premium in advance for selling what amounts to a five-year futures contract on gold. But at best – if early offerings engender successful outcomes – it will establish the vital beachhead for building a gold-based monetary system.

Evolving to a Global SystemWhat of other nations? Are other monetary

authorities willing to subject their own currency product to such severe consumer scrutiny – including the opt-out gold provision? For how long into the future? Instead of lamenting the lack of a reliable global reserve currency or complaining about the dollar’s poor performance, other nations and regional monetary authorities need likewise to step up to the problem of restoring monetary integrity.

It is notable that Russia began selling gold-backed bonds in 1993 to provide creditors with a reliable hedge against ruble inflation; the one-year bonds (10,000 were allocated, backed by 100 tonnes of Russia’s gold reserves) offered buyers the choice of receiving either 10 kilograms of gold or its ruble equivalent at date of maturity. It could be China, though, that would be the first to follow the U.S. lead by issuing its own series of gold-backed bonds. The yuan largely tracks the dollar, so the proposition is no more risky for China than for America; at the same time, China would likely welcome the opportunity to reinforce a U.S. commitment to fiscal discipline. And other countries with large holdings of gold reserves – Germany, Italy, France, and Japan – might well decide to demonstrate their own allegiance to

monetary stability through the issuance of gold-backed bonds.

The structure of the bonds in every case should be the same: The instrument itself is a government obligation to redeem the face value of the coupon at maturity in gold (with the precise weight stipulated in advance), or else to pay the amount of currency fixed at the outset as the monetary equivalent. The stipulated rate of convertibility remains permanent throughout the life of the bond and throughout all subsequent issues; it defines the gold value of the national currency. Buyers are purchasing bonds on the basis of whether they believe the monetary unit which denominates the financial instrument issued by the government will remain stable in value relative to the universal surrogate for constant purchasing power: gold.

The bonds will sell at a premium over their face value – the value of the promised weight of gold at the fixed rate of convertibility – if market expectations anticipate currency inflation; the purchaser would be betting that an ounce of gold will be worth more than, say, the $1,800 face value on the bond (or the equivalent in rubles, in yuan, in euros or yen) at maturity. The bonds will sell at close to par if the currency is expected to remain stable against the value of gold.

The objective in bringing about what amounts to a joint issuance of gold-linked financial contracts by the world’s major nations is to build the foundation for a common currency to serve the needs of the global marketplace. An increasingly broader group of countries and successively larger set of gold-linked offerings should lead to greater monetary stability – and effectively, fixed exchange rates among participating currencies. Eventually, national governments might be removed from the business of producing money. A Universal Gold Reserve Bank could evolve as part of this process, bundling the contracts into gold-linked securities that equate payment at maturity with the pre-established fixed value of a specific currency, or basket of currencies, relative to gold.

The Universal Gold Reserve Bank would become the global monetary authority; it would function as a central bank, not in a regulatory sense, but as the initiator of open market operations involving the global reserve asset. To the extent a wide array of nations opted to combine their currencies into mutually binding gold-linked contracts (likely in accordance with contributed collateral or private market swap arrangements), a new means of providing base money would be introduced. The Universal Gold Reserve Bank would stand ready to buy or sell its own financial obligation – an instrument pegging the value of the “uni”, say, to a specific weight of gold. The central banks of participating countries would essentially serve as primary dealers for UGRB securities.

The new monetary system would be self-correcting, harnessing the inherent market assessments of bid-and-ask pricing to expand or contract the base money supply

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as dictated by market expectations of continued stability between the value of the base money and the price of gold. If investors believe gold will be worth more than the base money fixed amount at maturity (expecting inflation), they will purchase the UGRB instruments; their doing so automatically contracts the money supply as funds are withdrawn from the system. If investors believe gold will be worth less than the base money fixed amount at maturity (expecting deflation), they will sell the UGRB instruments; their doing so automatically expands the money supply by injecting additional funds into the system.

A Faster Way – But Not BetterThe approach outlined above takes the patient view

that human psychology does not easily give up its most familiar signs of treasure – and that tentative steps toward linking gold to national currencies are more prudent, and likely more enduring, than grandiose leaps. Obviously, an incautious issuance of gold-backed Treasury bond that grants a windfall to private creditors as gold drains out of official government reserves could scuttle further attempts to lock in monetary stability. On the other hand, it would heighten the case for needed reform to prevent government from corrupting the currency.

The point of this proposal is to empower the individual to have access to reliable money. The answer to fluctuating exchange rates, which obscure price signals across borders and reduce market efficiency, and to the problem of a widely-held global reserve asset vulnerable to depreciation, is not to seek ever-higher ruling bodies to manipulate the value of money. Instead

of invoking super-sovereign solutions to monetary stability – resorting to multilateral organizations all too prone to the use of symbiotic fiscal and monetary policies – the goal should be to eliminate the politics, that is, to remove temptation from government by essentially denationalizing money.

All this serves as disclaimer for what might otherwise seem an argument in favor of the super-sovereign approach. Because it should be mentioned here that it would conceivably be quite possible to establish the Universal Gold Reserve Bank in one fell swoop. It could be accomplished by segregating out the gold reserves currently held by the International Monetary Fund – some 90 million ounces – to serve as the initial multi-currency base for setting up a new international monetary system. The IMF would continue to make emergency loans to struggling nations and provide research and analytical guidance to the Group of 20 governments. But just as Harry Dexter White early on noted that furnishing a stable international currency and providing loans are two different functions, the gold reserves of the IMF would be assigned to a separate institution with its own distinctive monetary mission.

Indeed, it might even be proposed that the IMF in its current form be liquidated outright and its resources distributed; former member nations so inclined could then subscribe to the newly-created Universal Gold Reserve Bank on a voluntary basis. Once established, the UGRB would cooperate with private gold exchange-traded funds to conduct its base money operations.

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МЕТОДЫ ПРЕОДОЛЕНИЯ ФИНАНСОВЫХ КРИЗИСОВИ ПОСТКРИЗИСНОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ЭКОНОМИКИ КАЗАХСТАНА

Нуриля Кучукова, д.э.н., профессорАкадемик МЭАЕ и МАИ

Современный кризис возник в фи-нансовой системе развитых стран, в первую очередь в США, а затем пере-кинулся на Запад-ную Европу, финан-совые институты которой были тесно связаны с амери-канским финансо-вым рынком.

Ф и н а н с о в а я глобализация, поз-воляющая финан-совым институтам

расширять свое присутствие в различных странах, привела к потрясениям на национальных межбан-ковских рынках по всему миру (включая Казахстан – через рынок межбанковских кредитов и заимство-ваний казахстанских банков у иностранных банков) в августе 2007 г.

Финансовую глобализацию можно опреде-лить как растущую финансовую взаимозависимость стран всего мира в результате быстро увеличиваю-щегося объема международных финансовых сде-лок и мировых потоков капитала с использованием многообразия финансовых инструментов под воз-действием современных электронных технологий, средств коммуникаций и информатизации.

Вместе с глобализацией финансовых рынков возрастает и их потенциальная неустойчивость. Большинство стран испытало одновременно три сильных шоковых удара: финансовые потрясения, резко ограничившие доступ к внешнему финансиро-ванию; падение спроса на товары и услуги в странах с развитой рыночной экономикой; снижение цен на сырьевые товары, прежде всего, на энергоносители.

Масштабы и глубина последствий мирового финансового кризиса в разных странах были раз-личными. Во многом это было обусловлено сте- пенью устойчивости национальной банковской сис-темы, эффективностью работы кредитных институ-тов, уровнем зависимости от иностранных и корпо-ративных финансовых структур, объемами внешнего долга, сложившейся структурой национальной эко-номики и ее конкурентоспособностью.

Мировой финансово-экономический кризис 2007-2008 гг., разразившийся на фоне углубления

процессов глобализации, вынуждает разные страны искать эффективные пути и методы по преодолению его последствий, совершенствовать свою экономи-ческую политику, корректировать стратегии модерни-зации национальных экономик с целью повышения устойчивости и конкурентоспобности в новых усло-виях. Наиболее важными мерами по борьбе с кри-зисом, предпринимаемыми разными странами мира, явились:

• спасение крупных, системообразующих ком-мерческих банков либо путем предоставления го-сударством необходимых ими ликвидных средств, либо путем их национализации;

• разработка специальной антикризисной прог-раммы и формирование финансового фонда для ее реализации;

• меры по усилению роли государства в регули-ровании финансовой системы;

• прямая финансовая поддержка крупных компа-ний реального сектора, имеющих важное социально-экономическое значение для страны;

• снижение налогового бремени бизнеса;• меры по борьбе с безработицей и социальной

поддержке малоимущих.В общей сложности для поддержания финансо-

вой стабильности в мире были выделены средства около 10-15% объема валового внутреннего про-дукта или свыше 10 трлн.долл. США. В Казахстане сумма антикризисных мер превысила 14 млрд.долл. США.

К началу мирового кризиса коммерческие бан-ки Казахстана набрали внешних займов на 45 млрд.долл., поэтому после наступления мирового финан-сового кризиса в банковском секторе Казахстана си-туация резко ухудшилась: ограничился их доступ к внешнему заимствованию, возросла цена заемных средств, появились трудности с погашением преж-них долгов и кредитованием реального сектора эко-номики в связи с недостаточной их ликвидностью, нависла угроза банкротства банков со всеми вытека-ющими отсюда негативными последствиями.

В этих условиях власти Казахстана реалистично оценили ситуацию и приняли правильные экономи-ческие решения по выходу страны из кризиса. Ка-захстан, одним из первых среди стран СНГ обнаро-довал, инициированный Президентом Нурсултаном Назарбаевым, и разработанный Правительством Республики Казахстан, Национальным Банком и Агентством РК по регулированию и надзору фи-нансового рынка и финансовых организаций План

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сов-местных действий по стабилизации экономики и финансовой системы на 2009-2010 годы, который предусматривал системные меры по преодолению возникших проблем.

В первую очередь были поддержаны системо-образующие банки. На их докапитализацию было направлено 4 млрд.долл.США, которые повысили их ликвидность и помогли профинансировать реаль-ные проекты. Кроме поддержки банковского сектора, было инвестировано 1 млрд.долл. в агропромыш-ленный комплекс, 1 млрд.долл. – на развитие малого и среднего бизнеса, 1 млрд. долл. – на реализацию «прорывных» инновационных инфраструктурных и индустриальных проектов.

В целом, антикризисный пакет государства, включая налоговые послабления (на 500 млрд.тенге или 4 млрд.долл.) и снижение резервных требований для банков по внутренним обязательствам с 5 до 2%, по иным с 7 до 3% (на 350 млрд.тенге или менее 3-х млрд.долл.), решение проблем на рынке недвижи-мости (на 360 млрд.тенге или почти 3 млрд.долл.), составил 2,2 трлн.тенге или свыше 14,0% ВВП стра-ны. В результате реализации Плана совместных действий в 2009 году был обеспечен реальный рост ВВП в 1,1%.

В 2010 году была продолжена реализация анти-кризисных программ, направленных на смягчение последствий мирового экономического спада и соз-дание устойчивой основы посткризисного развития страны. Благодаря усилиям Правительства, самих компаний и банков была успешно проведена реструк-туризация задолженностей двух банков – БТА Банка и АльянсБанка, согласно дорожной карте бизнеса были открыты новые рабочие места, соответственно, сократилась безработица, введены дополнительные мощности, активно финансируются приоритетные проекты, оживляется МСБ и меняется его структура через финансирование предприятий реального сек-тора. В Налоговом кодексе, действующем с 1 янва-ря 2009 г., снижена налоговая нагрузка на реальные сектора обрабатывающей промышленности, МСБ, инфраструктуру. С января 2010г. началась реализа-ция Государственной программы форсированного индустриально-инновационного развития экономики Казахстана, осваиваются новые внутренние и внеш-ние рынки (китайское направление экспорта зерна, нефти, газа, металлургической промышленности), осуществляется приток инвестиций из Китая, Южной Кореи, исламских стран и т.д.

В результате принятых мер, по предваритель-ной оценке Министерства экономического развития и торговли Республики Казахстан (на конец января 2011 г.), реальный прирост валового внутреннего продукта в 2010 году составил 7,0%, уровень безра-ботицы снизился к концу 2010 года до 5,5%, средне-душевые денежные доходы населения выросли в реальном выражении на 6,3%, реальная заработная плата – на 7,5%, инфляция составила 7,8%.

По данным Агентства Республики Казахстан по регулированию и надзору финансового рынка и фи-нансовых организаций (пресс-релиз АФН на 1 января 2011 г., № 241) общая сумма депозитов банков вто-рого уровня выросла за 2010 год на 821,5 млрд.тенге или на 13,7% и составила на начало 2011 г. 6,8 трлн.тенге. Сумма вкладов населения также возросла на 150,9 млрд.тенге или на 12,5% и превысила 2,2 трлн.тенге (33% от общей суммы вкладов клиентов). Вы-росли совокупные активы банков за 2010 г. на 480,7 млрд.тенге или на 4,2% и составили 12,0 трлн.тенге.

В целом высокий рост ВВП Казахстана в 2010 году (7,0%) был закономерен для восстановительно-го посткризисного периода, поскольку присутствовал эффект низкой базы, восстанавливались ниши, ко-торые сократились во время сжатия спроса. Возрос также и совокупный размер международных резер-вов страны, включая валютные активы Националь-ного фонда, который составил на конец 2010 года 59 млрд.долл. Золотовалютные активы Национального банка страны за 2010 год увеличились на 22,5% и составили 28,3 млрд.долл.

Начатое с 1 июля 2010 года формирование еди-ной таможенной территории позволило увеличить рынок сбыта продукции казахстанских товаропро-изводителей с 16 до 168 млн.потребителей. Все это вкупе с принимаемыми мерами по улучшению биз-нес-климата в стране позволило обеспечить стиму-лы для диверсификации экономики путем привле-чения иностранных и отечественных инвестиций в обрабатывающие сектора экономики.

Антикризисные и посткризисные достижения Казахстана признаны на международной арене. По-мимо антикризисных мер и работы по укреплению финансовой системы, высоко оценена междуна-родными экспертами и деятельность казахстанского правительства по улучшению бизнес-среды. Из года в год Казахстан повышает свои позиции в рейтинге Всемирного банка Doing Business. Если смотреть в динамике, то получается, что с 71 места в 2007 году Казахстан поднялся до 59-го места (по новой методи-ке) в 2010 году, обогнав многие государства СНГ. Так, Беларусь заняла 68-е место, Россия 123-е, Украина – 145-е, Узбекистан – 150-е. Государство увеличило финансовую поддержку предпринимательства, были приняты меры по устранению административных барьеров, проведена налоговая реформа и принят новый Налоговый Кодекс, который значительно сни-зил налоговую нагрузку на субъекты МСБ, а также усовершенствовал налоговое администрирование и упростил налоговые процедуры.

Согласно опубликованному в мае 2010 года Докладу о мировой конкурентоспособности Между-народного института развития менеджмента (IMD), Казахстан занял 33-е место из 58 стран, поднявшись на 3 позиции с 2009 года и оставив позади 39 строчку в 2008 году. А в рейтинге британского независимо-го научно-исследовательского института Legatum,

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опубликованном в октябре 2010 года, Казахстан сто-ит на 50-м месте, опережая Беларусь (54-е), Россию (63-е) и Украину (69-е) и улучшив не только показа-тели 2009 года (76-е место из 104), но и показатели 2008 года (56-я строчка).

В 2011 году экономическая политика, проводимая Правительством республики, Национальным банком и АФН, будет направлена на повышение конкурен-тоспособности казахстанской экономики; реализа-цию программ, направленных на диверсификацию экономики, в первую очередь ГПФИИР; обеспечение стабильной занятости и роста доходов населения; реализацию государственных программ развития че-ловеческого капитала, включая образование, здра-воохранение и развитие языков.

Результатом проводимой экономической поли-тики в 2011 году станет реальный рост ВВП на уров-не 4-5%, поддержание уровня инфляции в коридо-ре 6-8%. В целом целевые установки, являющиеся уроками кризиса, - это обеспечение средних темпов роста ВВП, без перегрева экономики, с повышением качества роста, включая изменение структуры эконо-мики, рост инновационной активности, рост произво-дительности труда.

Мир сегодня – сложнейшая самоорганизую-щаяся система, часто выходящая из-под контроля человека. В этих условиях происходящие сложные процессы увеличивают количество опасностей, свя-занных с экономическими, политическими, экологи-ческими и другими видами рисков. Реализация госу-дарственной политики может сопровождаться целым рядом негативных факторов, оказывающих влияние на результаты деятельности.

Мировое финансовое сообщество отмечает на сегодняшний день в качестве значительных недос-татков в выработке мер отсутствие учета системных рисков в макроэкономической политике. Глобальный финансовый кризис показал несовершенство систем надзора многих стран, которое заключалось не в форме ограничения надзора, а в отсутствии опера-тивности принимаемых решений и согласованности действий между Правительством, центральным бан-ком и регулятором.

В этой связи, одним из ключевых направлений реформирования финансового сектора в общеми-ровом масштабе является развитие макропруден- циального подхода и обеспечение макрофинан- совой стабильности посредством внедрения и усиления механизмов урегулирования системных рисков.

Для целей обеспечения оперативности и согла-сованности мер экономической политики, а также в рамках эффективной реализации макропруден- циального регулирования мировое финансовое со-общество придерживается позиции о необходимости создания объединенных Комитетов либо Советов высокого уровня, ответственных за вопросы финан-совой стабильности и выработку мер политики, нап-

равленных на регулирование и предотвращение сис-темных рисков.

В частности, в рамках реформирования фи-нансового регулирования в США предлагается под руководством Казначейства США создать Совет по надзору за финансовыми услугами, который сог-ласно доклада Казначейства США должен будет обеспечить взаимодействие и координацию между Казначейством, ФРС и шестью надзорными органа-ми США. Аналогичные Советы по системным рискам рекомендованы и для ЕС и Великобритании.

В рамках внедрения и развития макропруден- циального подхода в Казахстане необходимо усиле-ние координации действий монетарных, фискальных и надзорного органов для выработки макропруден-циальной финансовой политики, направленной на предотвращение негативного влияния на финансо-вую систему внутренних системных рисков и рисков макроэкономики.

Рабочим органом в рамках макропруденциаль-ной финансовой политики должно стать Управление финансовой стабильности Национального банка Республики Казахстан, основной функцией которого должно стать осуществление мониторинга и оценки системных рисков на основе сбора, обработки и ана-лиза информации, предоставляемой аналогичными подразделениями надзорного и фискального орга-нов. Формирование и принятие решений в области макропруденциальной финансовой политики будут осуществляться коллегиально и согласованно.

Современный финансово-экономический кризис поставил также под сомнение эффективность амери-канской финансовой модели капитализма и ее жиз-неспособность в условиях глобального рынка. Ситу-ация усугубляется и тем, что американский доллар по-прежнему играет роль мировой резервной валю-ты, поэтому «выброс» в финансовую систему США сотен миллиардов ничем не обеспеченных долларов может в дальнейшем провоцировать масштабный системный кризис на международном уровне.

Процессы глобализации требуют от Глав госу-дарств и мирового финансового сообщества разра-ботки единой мировой системы регулирования ва-лютной и финансовой системы на международном уровне, которая позволит минимизировать воздейст-вие внешних кризисных явлений на национальные экономики, поскольку они в одиночку не способны противостоять массированным внешним шокам.

В этой связи, целесообразно на уровне Глав 20 ведущих государств мира реализовать ряд практи-ческих мер:

- создать наднациональные органы междуна-родного регулирования процессов либерализации и интернационализации национальных банковских систем и оказания финансовой помощи националь-ным экономикам для смягчения негативных пос-ледствий мирового финансово-экономического кри-зиса;

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- разработать механизмы международного конт-роля за движением иностранных капиталов, обеспе-чив прозрачность банковских систем стран мира, что означает необходимость коренного реформирова-ния всей международной валютно-финансовой сис-темы;

- на переходном этапе допустить возможность формирования новых мировых и региональных финансово-экономических центров с использовани-ем многовалютного стандарта;

- рассмотреть возможность разработки в перс-пективе наднациональной мировой валюты для обеспечения валютно-экономической безопасности в мире.

Необходимо всерьез заняться ликвидацией при-чин глобального финансового кризиса, остановить экспансию доллара за счет наращивания бюджет-ного дефицита, ликвидировать фиктивный капитал, образуемый путем спекулятивных операций на фон-довых биржах и других финансовых рынках.

Для преодоления обозначившегося системного кризиса потребуется весьма продолжительное вре-мя, и неизбежно придется рано или поздно совер-шить переход на принципиально другую научную па-радигму устройства экономики и общества.

Литература:

1. Аганбегян А.Г. Об особенностях современного мирового финансового кризиса и его последствий для России // Деньги и кредит. – 2008. - № 12.

2. Абрамова М.А. Посткризисное развитие денежной системы в России в условиях глобализации финансо-вых рынков. - В сб.: Материалы Международного научного семинара «Макроэкономические аспекты развития финансово-кредитной системы Республики Казахстан: тенденции и перспективы». – Астана, 2011., с.201-211.

3. Арыстанов А.К. Региональный финансовый центр города Алматы: Монография. – Алматы: ИД «Жибек жолы», 2010. – 168 с.

4. Арыстанбаева С.С. Финансовый кризис: факторы и пути преодоления.- В сб.: Материалы Международ-ного научного семинара «Макроэкономические аспекты развития финансово-кредитной системы Республики Казахстан: тенденции и перспективы». – Астана, 2011., с.192-196.

5. Asian economic and corporate news summary. – 2009. 12 Jan.6. Динкевич А.И. Мировой финансово-экономический кризис // Деньги и кредит. – 2009. - № 10.7. Мир, основанный на долларе, «переживает серьезные проблемы, серьезный сбой» - В Путин. Прайм –

ТАСС, 29 окт.2008 . Информац.-справочный портал.8. Концепция развития финансового сектора Республики Казахстан в посткризисный период от 10 февра-

ля 2010 года.9. Кондратьев В. Бизнес на основе этики и честного труда. «Прямые инвестиции», № 3 (83), 2009, М., с.

56-59.10. Кучукова Н.К. Макроэкономические аспекты реформирования финансово-кредитной системы за годы

независимости Казахстана: предпосылки, тенденции и перспективы развития. Моногр.- Астана: Изд. КазУ-ЭФМТ, 2011. – 310 с.

11. Назарбаев Н.А. Ключи от кризиса // Казахстанская правда, 03.02.2009 г.12. Отчет о финансовой стабильности Казахстана 2007,2008,2009,2010 // Сайт НБК http: // www. nationalbank.

kz13. Пахомов Ю., Пахомов С. Корни кризиса. Мировой финансовый кризис: цивилизационные истоки.//

Экономист.- 2009.- Вып.4.14. План совместных действий Правительства, Национального банка, Агентства по регулированию и над-

зору финансового рынка и финансовых организаций Республики Казахстан по стабилизации экономики и фи-нансовой системы на 2009-2010 гг.

15. Панорама, № 2, 21 января 2011 года.16. Путин: мировая финансовая система устарела //Росбалт 10.06.2007 – http: // www rosbalt.ru

/2008/1/20/298944.html17. Сатубалдин С.С. Азиатский кризис: причины и уроки: монография. – Алмты, 2000. - С.155.18. Святов С.А. Национальная банковская система: новая парадигма развития в условиях глобализации.

– В сб.: Материалы Международной научно-методической конференции «Актуальные проблемы налогов, бюд-жета и системы подготовки экономических кадров». – Астана, КазУЭФМТ, 2011. – С.14-18.

19. Сорос Дж. Худший кризис фондового рынка за 60 лет. Конец эры кредитной экспансии// Financial Times 24.01.2008 Адрес перевода - http: // www centrasia.ru/news A.php 4st = 1201164840.

20. Стратегический план развития Республики Казахстан до 2020 года. Указ Президента Республики Ка-захстан от 1 февраля 2010 года, № 922.

21. Суэтин Л. О причинах современного финансового кризиса // Вопросы экономики. – 2009. – Вып.1.22. The Bank of England. Six-Monthly Financial-Stability Report. – 2008. Okt.28.

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Modern crisis has arisen in a financial system of the developed countries, first of all in the USA, and then spread over to the Western Europe which financial institutions have been closely connected with the American financial market.

The financial globalization allowing financial institutions to expand the presence at the various countries, has led to shocks in the national interbank markets worldwide (including Kazakhstan – it happened through the market of interbank credits and loans of the Kazakhstan banks at foreign banks) in August, 2007.

Financial globalization can be defined as growing financial interdependence of the countries of all world of as a result quickly increasing volume of the international financial transactions and world streams of the capital with use of variety of financial tools under influence of modern electronic technologies, means of communications and information.

Potential instability of the financial markets also increases together with globalization. The majority of the countries has tested simultaneously three strong shock impacts: the financial shocks which have sharply limited access to external financing; falling of demand for the goods and services in the countries with the developed market economy; reduction of prices on the raw goods, first of all, on energy carriers.

Scales and depth of consequences of world financial crisis in the different countries were various. In many respects it has been caused by a degree of stability of national bank system, an overall performance of credit institutes, a level of dependence on foreign and corporate financial structures, volumes of the external duty, the developed structure of national economy and its competitiveness.

World financial and economic crisis 2007-2008 which have burst on a background of a deepening of processes of globalization, compels the different countries to search for effective ways and methods on overcoming its consequences, to improve the economic policy, to correct strategy of modernization of national economies with the purpose of increase of stability and competitiveness in new conditions.

The most important measures on struggle against the crisis undertaken by different countries of the world were:

- Rescue large commercial banks or by state granting of liquid means necessary by them, or by their nationalization;

- Development of the special anti-crises program and formation of financial fund for its realization;

- Measures on strengthening a role of the state in regulation of a financial system;

- Direct financial support of the large companies of the real sector having the important social and economic value for the country;

- Decrease in tax burden of business;-Measures on struggle against unemployment and

social support needy.In total for maintenance of financial stability in the

world means about 10-15 % of volume of a domestic product (GDP) or more 10 trillion dollar have been allocated. In Kazakhstan the sum of anti-crises measures has exceeded 14 trillion dollar.

To the beginning of world crisis commercial banks of Kazakhstan got external loans 45 billion dollar therefore after approach of world financial crisis in bank sector of Kazakhstan the situation has sharply worsened: their access to external loan was limited, the price of borrowed current assets increased, there were difficulties with repayment of former debts and crediting of real sector of economy in connection with their insufficient liquidity, threat of bankruptcy of banks with all the ensuing consequences following from here with all the ensuing consequences hovered over.

In these conditions of authority of Kazakhstan estimated realistic a situation and correct economic decisions on an output of the country from crisis made. Kazakhstan was one of the first among the CIS countries promulgated, initiated by President Noursultan Nazarbaevym, and developed by the Government of Republic Kazakhstan, National Bank and Agency RK on regulation and supervision of the financial market and the financial organizations the Plan of joint actions on stabilization of economy and a financial system for 2009-2010 which provided system measures on overcoming the arisen problems.

First of all have been supported major banks. On them capitalization it has been directed 4 billion dollar, which raised their liquidity and helped to finance real projects. Except for support of bank sector, it has been invested 1 billion dollar in agriculture, 1 billion dollar - on development of small and average business, 1 billion dollars - on realization innovative infrastructural and industrial projects.

As a whole, an anti-crises package of the state, including tax indulgences (on 500 billion tenge or 4 billion

METHODS OF OVERCOMING OF FINANCIAl CRISIS AND POST CRISIS DEVElOPMENT OF ECONOMY OF KAZAKHSTAN

By Nurilya KuchukovaDoctor of Economic Sciences, Professor

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dollar) and decrease in reserve requirements for banks under internal obligations with 5 up to 2 %, on others with 7 up to 3 % (on 350 billion tenge or less than 3 billion dollar), made 2,2 trillion tenge or over 14,0 % of gross national product (GDP) of the country. As a result of realization of the Plan of joint actions in 2009 real growth of gross national product in 1,1 % has been provided.

In 2010 realization of the anti-crises programs directed on mitigation of consequences of world economic recession and creation of a steady basis of post crisis development of the country has been continued. Owing to efforts of the Government, the companies and banks re-structuring of debts of two banks – BANK TURAN ALEM and ALIANS BANK has been successfully lead, according to a motoring map of business were new workplaces were opened, so unemployment was reduced, additional capacities are entered, priority projects are actively financed, quickens small-scale and large-scale business and its structure through financing of the enterprises of real sector varies. In the Tax code operating since January, 1st, 2009, tax burden on real sectors of a manufacturing industry, on small-scale and large-scale business and on an infrastructure is lowered. Since January 2010 realization of the State program of the forced industrially-innovative development of economy of Kazakhstan began, accustom new internal and foreign markets (the Chinese direction of export of grain, oil, gas, an iron and steel industry), is carried out inflow of investments from China, South Korea, the Islamic countries, etc.

As a result of the accepted measures, on a tentative estimation of the Ministry of economic development and trade of Republic Kazakhstan (by the end of January, 2011), a real gain of a total internal product in 2010 made 7,0 %, a rate of unemployment decreased by the end of 2010 up to 5,5 %, monetary per capita incomes grew in real expression by 6,3 %, real wages - by 7,5 %, inflation made 7,8 %.

According to Agency of Republic Kazakhstan on regulation and supervision of the financial market and the financial organizations (press release AFS on 01.01.11, № 241) the total sum of deposits of commercial banks grew for 2010 by 821,5 billion tenge or by 13,7 % and made on the beginning 2011 6,8 trillion tenge. The sum of contributions of the population also increased on 150,9 billion tenge or by 12,5 % and exceeded 2,2 trillion tenge (33 % from a total sum of contributions of clients). Cumulative actives of banks for 2010 by 480,7 billion tenge or by 4,2 % grew and made 12,0 trillion tenge.

As a whole high growth of gross national product of Kazakhstan in 2010 (7,0 %) was natural for the regenerative post crisis period as there was an effect of low base, niches which were reduced during reduction of demand were restored. As well the cumulative size of the international reserves of the country increased, including currency actives of National fund which made on the

end 2010 59 billion dollar. Gold and currency actives of National bank of the country for 2010 increased for 22,5 % and made 28,3 billion dollar.

The formation of uniform customs territory begun with July, 1st, 2010 allowed to increase a commodity market of production of the Kazakhstan commodity producers from 16 million up to 168 million customers. All this together with accepted measures on improvement business-climate in the country allowed to provide stimulus for diversification economy by attraction of foreign and domestic investments into processing sectors of economy.

Anti-crises and post crisis achievements of Kazakhstan are recognized on international scene. Besides anti-recessionary measures and work on strengthening a financial system, it is highly estimated by the international experts and activity of the Kazakhstan government on improvement business-environment. From year to year Kazakhstan raises the positions in a rating of World bank Doing Business. If to look in dynamics it turns out, that from 71 places in 2007 Kazakhstan rose up to 59-th place (on new technique) in 2010, having overtaken many states CIS. So, Belarus was on 68th place, Russia - 123, Ukraine - 145, Uzbekistan - 150. The state increased financial support of business, have been taken measures on elimination of administrative barriers, tax reform is lead and the new Tax Code which has considerably lowered tax burden on subjects small-scale and large-scale is accepted, and also improved tax administration and simplified tax procedures.

According to the Report published in May, 2010 on world competitiveness of the International institute of development of management (IMD), Kazakhstan was on 33 place from 58 countries, having risen on 3 positions since 2009 and left 39 line in 2008. And in the rating of British independent scientific research institute Legatum published in October, 2010, Kazakhstan was on 50-th place, advancing Belarus (54), Russia (63) and Ukraine (69) and having improved not only parameters of 2009 (76 place from 104), but also parameters of 2008 (56-th line).

In 2011 the economic policy pursued by the Government of Republic, National bank and АFS, will be directed on increase of competitiveness of the Kazakhstan economy; realization of the programs directed on diversification of economy, first of all on State program of Industrial Innovative Development; maintenance of stable employment and growth of incomes of the population; realization of the state programs of development of the human capital, including education, public health services and development of languages.

Result of economic policy in 2011 will become real growth of gross national product at a level of 4-5 %, maintenance of a rate of inflation in a corridor of 6-8 %. As a whole the purposes, being lessons of crisis,

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is a maintenance of average rates of growth of gross national product, without an overheat of economy, with improvement of quality of growth, including change of structure of economy, growth of innovative activity, growth of labour productivity.

The world today is the most complicated self-regulation system which is difficult to conrol. In these conditions occuring complex processes increase quantity of the dangers connected with economic, political, ecological and other kinds of risks. Realization of a state policy can be accompanied by a lot of the negative factors influencing results of activity.

The world financial community marks nowadays as significant lacks of development of measures absence of the account of system risks in the macroeconomic policy. Global financial crisis showed imperfection of systems of supervision of many countries which consist not in the form of restriction of supervision, and in absence of immediacy of accepted decisions and a coordination of actions between the Government, the central bank and a regulator.

In this connection, one of key directions of reforming of financial sector in universal scale is development macro-prudential approach and maintenance of macro-financial stability by means of introduction and strengthening of mechanisms of settlement of system risks.

For the purposes of maintenance of efficiency and a coordination of measures of economic policy, and also within the limits of effective realization macro-prudential regulation the world financial community adheres to a position about necessity of creation of the incorporated Committees or the Advice of a high level responsible for questions of financial stability and development of measures of policy directed on regulation and prevention of system risks.

In particular, within the limits of reforming financial regulation in the USA it is offered to create under direction of Exchequer of the USA Advice on supervision of financial services which according to the report of Exchequer of the USA should will to provide interaction and coordination between Exchequer, FRS and six supervising bodies of the USA. Similar Advice on system risks are recommended for EU and for the Great Britain.

Within the limits of introduction and development macro-prudential the approach in Kazakhstan strengthening coordination of actions monetary, fiscal and supervising bodies for development macro-prudential the financial policy directed on prevention of negative influence on a financial system of internal system risks and risks of macroeconomic is necessary.

Working body within the limits of macro-prudential financial policy should become Management of financial stability of National bank of Republic Kazakhstan which

basic function should become realization of monitoring and an estimation of system risks on the basis of gathering, processing and the analysis of the information given by similar divisions of supervising and fiscal bodies. Formation and decision-making in the field of macro-prudential financial policy will be carried out jointly and in coordination.

Modern financial and economic crisis called also into question efficiency of the American financial model of capitalism and its viability in conditions of the global market. The situation is aggravated also with that the American dollar still plays a role of world reserve currency, therefore “emission” in a financial system of the USA of hundreds billions of nothing provided dollars can provoke in the further scale system crisis at the international level.

Processes of globalization demand from state leaders and world financial community of development of uniform world system of regulation a currency and a financial system at the international level which will allow to minimize influence of the external crisis phenomena on national economies as they alone are not capable to resist to the massed external shocks.

In this connection, it is expedient to realize a number of practical measures at a level of 20 leading states of the world:

- To create supranational state bodies of the international regulation of processes of liberalization and internationalization of national bank systems and rendering of the financial help to national economies for mitigation of negative consequences of world financial and economic crisis;

- To develop mechanisms of the international control over movement of foreign capitals, having provided a transparency of bank systems of the countries of the world that means necessity of radical reforming of all international currency-financial system;

- At a transitive stage to admit an opportunity of formation of the new world and regional financial and economic centers with use of the multicurrency standard;

- To consider an opportunity of development in the long term supranational world currency for maintenance of currency-economic safety in the world.

It is necessary liquidate the reasons of global financial crisis, to stop expansion of dollar due to escalating budgetary deficiency, to liquidate the fictitious capital, made by speculative operations at stock exchanges and other financial markets.

For overcoming the designated system crisis rather long time is required, and inevitably it is necessary to make sooner or later transition to essentially other scientific paradigm of the development of economy and a society.

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References:

1. Aganbegan А.G. About features of modern world financial crisis and its consequences for Russia // Money and the credit. - 2008. - № 12.

2. Аbramova M.A. Post crisis development of monetary system in Russia in conditions of globalization of the financial markets. - : Materials of the International scientific seminar « Macroeconomic aspects of development of a financial system-credit of Republic Kazakhstan: tendencies and prospects ». - Astana, 2011., p.201-211.

3. Аristanov A.K R egional financial city centre Almaty: the Monography. - Almaty: Publishing house « Zhibek Zholy », 2010. – p.168.

4. Аristanbaeva S.S. Financial crisis: factors and ways of overcoming.-.: Materials of the International scientific seminar «Macroeconomic aspects of development of a financial system-credit of Republic Kazakhstan: tendencies and prospects ». - Astana, 2011., p.192-196.

5. Asian economic and corporate news summary. - 2009.12 Jan.6. Dinkevitch A.I. World financial and economic crisis // Money and the credit. - 2009. - № 10.7. The World based on dollar, « experiences serious problems, serious failure » - In Putin. A prime - TASS, 29

окт.2008.8. The Concept of development of financial sector of Republic Kazakhstan during the post crisis period from

February, 10th, 2010.9. Kondratyev of Century Business on the basis of ethics and fair work. « Direct investments », № 3 (83), 2009,

p. 56-59.10. Кuchukova N.K. Macroeconomic aspects of reforming of a financial system-credit for years of independence

of Kazakhstan: preconditions, tendencies and prospects of development. monograph.-Astana: publishing house.Kazakh University of Economy, Finance and International Trade, 2011. – p. 310.

11. Nazarbaev N.A. Key of crisis // the Kazakhstan Pravda, 2/3/200912. The Report on financial stability of Kazakhstan 2007,2008,2009,2010 // Site National Bank of Republic of

Kazakhstan http: // www. nationalbank.kz13. Pahomov U., Pahomov S. background of crisis. World financial crisis: civilizational origins. // Economist.-2009.

Issue.4.14. The Plan of joint actions of the Government, National bank, Agency on regulation and supervision of the

financial market and the financial organizations of Republic Kazakhstan on stabilization of economy and a financial system for 2009-2010

15. The Panorama, № 2, on January, 21st, 2011.16. Putin: the world financial system became outdated // Rosbalt 6/10/2007 - http: // www rosbalt.ru

/2008/1/20/298944.html17. Satubaldin S.S.Asian crisis: the reasons and lessons: the monography. - Almaty, 2000. - p.155.18. Svjatov S.A. National bank system: a new paradigm of development in conditions of globalization.: Materials of

the International scientifically-methodical conference « Actual problems of taxes, the budget and system of preparation of the economic staff ». –Astana , Kazakh University of Economy, Finance and International Trade, 2011. - p.14-18.

19. Soros Dzh. The worst crisis of the share market for 60 years. The end of an era of credit expansion // Financial Times 1/24/2008 the Address of translation - http: // www centrasia.ru/news A.php 4st = 1201164840.

20. The Strategic plan for development of Republic Kazakhstan till 2020. The decree of the President of Republic Kazakhstan from February, 1st, 2010, № 922.

21. Suetin L. About the reasons of modern financial crisis // Questions of economy. - 2009. - Issue.1.22. The Bank of England. Six-Monthly Financial-Stability Report. - 2008. Okt.28.

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PERSPECTIVES OF EAST ASIA’S EMERGING ECONOMIES

By Yung Chul ParkProfessor and Director, Center of International Commerce in Korea

Many of the economic problems confronting the global economy today - global recession, a high degree of volatility of capital flows and exchange rates, excessive leveraging and risk taking on the part of systemically important global financial institutions, and global trade imbalance, to name a few - may

have some of their causes in the deficiencies of the international monetary system. If they are, then the deficiencies are likely to be found in the two major components of the international monetary system-the monetary and exchange rate arrangements of countries and the reserve currency system.

1. The US dollar, the SDR, and New Reserve Currencies

Like their counterparts in Europe and elsewhere, East Asian policy makers are concerned about the world currency system under the control of the US - the world’s single largest debtor - and the weakening of and erosion of confidence in its currency, the dollar. But they do not see any new reserve currencies - for that matter any new global currency - emerging on the horizon that could replace the role of the dollar.

There has been a growing interest in the expansion of the role of the SDR and potential of transforming it into a global medium of exchange and reserve holding (Stiglitz 2010). While the jury is still out on the feasibility of such a transformation, it appears there are more skeptics than believers. From the perspectives of emerging economies, SDRs are held as part of their international reserves, because they can be converted into major reserve currencies when they want to use them - that is, because they are backed by the US dollar and other reserve currencies. It is difficult to imagine a situation where emerging economies would want to exchange their holdings of SDRs for non-reserve currencies.

Emerging economies are obliged to accept SDRs in exchange for their holdings of reserve and other currencies, but they are willing to comply with this obligation because they know that other countries will also agree to a similar exchange when they need US dollars. Any increase in SDRs is equivalent to an implicit commitment on the part of reserve currency countries - mostly the US and the euro area - to exchange new

issues for their own currencies. As Wyplosz (2010) puts it, new SDRs are in effect new reserve currencies - dollars, euros, yens, etc. The appeal of the SDR, that its supply is not controlled by any national central bank, is also their fundamental weakness. International reserves are also held in safe and liquid public debt instruments. At present, the US is the only country which can supply such assets. There are very few other candidates.

These weaknesses of the SDR are well known and underscore the fact that if the SDR is going to be elevated to a global currency, it will have to be used as a means of transactions and a store of value in the private sector. And it has to be issued by a global central bank. Whatever its imperative, the creation of a global central bank is unthinkable. Therefore, before advocating the international role of the SDR, the advocates will need to explain how the new global role will help improve the efficiency of the global exchange rate arrangement in managing global macroeconomic adjustments and rectify the failures of international financial markets that came to light during the 2008 global financial crisis. The list of the problems they need to address may also include the exorbitant privileges of de facto global currency countries.

The World economy is destined to live with a global exchange rate system that consists of free floating, managed floating, and fixed exchange rate regimes. This diverse system has not worked well as manifested by its failure of mitigating the growing trade imbalance between East Asia and the US, yet there is no serious discussion on reform of the global exchange rate system. In fact, few question the rationale behind the apparent preference of emerging economies for managed floating with prudential capital control and intervention in the currency market. The skeptics of the SDR may then ask how the reform of the reserve currency system will facilitate global macroeconomic adjustments or help emerging economies better manage their exchange rate policy.

While there is a need for improving the efficiency of the reserve currency system, to many pundits and policy makers from the region, the reform of the international monetary system is also a political issue that may require a protracted period of discussion and negotiations on plausible alternative systems at many international fora. The G-20 should address the issue, but it must be prepared to deal with it as part of its long term agenda. Otherwise, the G-20 may direct too much of its resources and time to the reserve currency reform at the expense

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of other short term issues that deserve closer attention and solutions.

2. Global Imbalance and Quantitative TargetingDespite the growing concerns and numerous

proposals for policy reform and structural changes to be undertaken by surplus and deficit countries alike, the global imbalance has defied an easy solution and shown little sign of abatement. Since practically all of the members of ASEAN+3 have been running surpluses on their current accounts, accounting for more than a half of the global imbalance, they realize the exigencies of embracing rebalancing growth to rely more on domestic demand for growth and to increase flexibility of their exchange rates.

In this regard, the focal point of the debate on East Asia’s adjustment has so far been the undervaluation of the RMB. China has been reluctant to accommodate the demand for a substantial appreciation of its currency, and its RMB internationalization strategy would reduce further the room for flexibility of its exchange rate policy (Park and Song 2011). Other emerging economies in the region, many of whom are competing against China in many export markets within and outside East Asia would not move unless China does first in adjusting their exchange rates.

The economic profession is not unanimous on effectiveness of the exchange rate adjustment as a means of correcting the imbalance. If the G-20 leaders could not reach an agreement on appreciation and greater flexibility of East Asian currencies including the RMB, then they may need to turn to a quantitative adjustment as a complement to the exchange rate adjustment.

• Setting numerical targetsThere appears to be an emerging consensus among

the countries responsible for the imbalance including China and the US that a current account imbalance—surplus or deficit—on the order of 3-4 percent of GDP is sustainable. Given this acceptance, the G-20 may consider reviving the idea of quantitative targeting of the current account to be achieved over a number of years by both surplus and deficit countries. This approach has several advantages over the exclusive reliance on the exchange rate adjustment. It is transparent. It allows the countries concerned a larger room and menu of policy adjustments including the exchange rate change. And the targeting could be better enforced.

• Currency internationalization in emerging economies

One of the main reasons for the large accumulation of reserves in emerging economies has been the self-insurance against a sudden evaporation of liquidity in reserve currencies. If these countries can borrow from global financial markets in their own currency, then their precautionary demand for reserves will not be as large as it is now. The internationalization will therefore

contribute to taking pressure off the resolution of the global imbalance.

If an emerging economy succeeds in improving the international status of its currency to be used widely as a means of exchange and store of value outside it national border, it will be able to issue bonds and other types of financial instruments denominated in its own currency to raise funds on global financial markets. This ability will help reduce the need for holding a large reserve and mitigate the problem of currency mismatching in the balance sheets of financial institutions, thereby making it less vulnerable to external shocks. Unfortunately, however, not much is known about the conditions under and the process through which a domestic currency can be transformed into an international currency. The G-20 may consider including internationalization of the currencies of emerging economies as part of its long-term agenda

3. Capital Control and Post Crisis Exchange Regime for Emerging Economies

There has been a broad agreement on the need to intervene in the foreign exchange market to smooth out fluctuations in the exchange rate around its level that is consistent with economic fundamentals. At the Seoul G-20 summit the leaders also articulated the need of introducing capital control—to be managed in a prudent manner to moderate large capital inflows—in particular speculative portfolio capital in emerging economies. The IMF has softened its traditional position and has been working on a set of guidelines on capital control (Ostry et.al 2011). This approbation of capital control together with currency market intervention raises a number of issues all related to the reform of the international monetary system.

• Beggar thy neighbor exchange rate policyFrom the perspectives of emerging economies,

the explicit or implicit approval of capital control is tantamount to accepting some type of managed floating as an appropriate post crisis exchange rate regime for emerging economies. If it does, the prevalence of managed floating could pose a risk of exacerbating the adjustment process of the global economy. Unless the modality and rules of managed floating are specified and agreed upon, some of the emerging economies could easily succumb to the temptation of taking advantage of the managed floating to change the level of the exchange rate through market intervention to improve their export competiveness. Since capital control is a complement to the foreign exchange market intervention, it could be used more frequently and extensively as an instrument of stabilizing the nominal exchange rate.

• Effectiveness, Instruments, and Scope of Capital control

The effectiveness, instruments, scope and intensity of capital control as a means of moderating capital inflows have long been controversial issues to which

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neither theory nor empirical evidence has been able to provide answers. Emerging economies will have to rely on the rules of thumb based on the past experiences of other countries. In this regard, it is important that the G-20, in cooperation with the IMF, sets the rules and conditions under which capital control could be activated to remove confusion and uncertainty surrounding its implementation.

• Controlling source as well as host countriesCapital control may work in moderating capital

inflows, but experiences of emerging economies show that it is of little use in taming capital outflows, in particular in time of a crisis. As was witnessed during the 2008 global financial crisis, financial market participants could overreact to deterioration of financial market indicators and macroeconomic variables such as the current account deficit in an emerging economy to throw it into a liquidity crisis. When an economy is engulfed in a crisis, free floating often fails to serve as a first line of defense, because a large depreciation of the exchange rate triggered by an outflow could put it on an implosive trajectory.

There appears to be no effective measures of capital control that could prevent unexpected outflows. Given that emerging economies cannot prevent by themselves unexpected and speculative reversal of capital inflows, the G-20 may be better advised if it highlights the importance of imposing control on capital outflows at the source-excessive lending and investments by large global financial institutions operating out of the source countries. The G-20 may also prose a system of exchanging and sharing information on capital movements between the regulators of the host and source countries, thereby establishing symmetry in capital control between host and source countries in managing a capital control regime.

4. Creating a Cooperative Arrangement among Major Central Banks: A Proposal

• RationaleThe 2008 global crisis has underscored what has

been known all along-the incompatibility of financial globalization with monetary and financial regulatory regimes that remain national. The crisis has also revealed flaws of global financial markets associated with information asymmetry that are manifested in the overreaction - euphoria or excessive pessimism - and herding of market participants. The overreaction lies behind the boom-bust liquidity cycle that often sets off financial crises in both advanced and emerging economies. According to the IMF (2011), global liquidity, however defined, matters. Excesses and shortages of global liquidity have real consequences as they affect inflation, asset prices, and external imbalances. Yet, there are no global institutions that can control the growth of global liquidity or regulate the activities of international banks and other global financial institutions.

From the perspectives of emerging economies, one type of the failures of global financial markets that has plagued many of them has been a high degree of volatility of capital inflows. As shown by many episodes of financial crisis in emerging economies, a sudden reversal of capital inflows has been a major cause of a reserve currency liquidity crisis. This fear of the crisis has led many emerging economies to holding large amounts of reserves for self- insurance, thereby exacerbating the global imbalance.

Many of the problems stemming from these deficiencies of the global financial markets could be prevented or better managed, if a global central bank were created. Like a national central bank, the global central bank would be able to stabilize the growth of the availability of global liquidity to moderate large fluctuations in the prices of globally traded assets and the exchange rates of the major reserve currencies. It could rescue those emerging economies suffering from short-run shortages of liquidity by throwing a safety net. It could prevent runs on large global banks - at least those systemically important ones. With a global central bank in operation, the world economy would not need a global liquidity safety net proposed by the G-20.

Since there is no prospect for the global community to agree ever on establishing a global central bank, a second best solution needs to be found to alleviate the structural weakness of a global financial system without global financial governance. In this note, it is argued that the creation of a cooperative arrangement among major central banks could be such a solution as it could serve as a quasi global lender of last resort.

• Membership and FunctionsOnly the US Fed and in part the ECB - assuming

that the euro will be able to survive the ongoing crisis - could serve as the de facto global lenders of last resort. If anyone has any doubt about the global role of the US Fed, all he has to do is estimate the share of global financial intermediation in US dollar and the amount of dollar liquidity the Fed has had to inject into the global financial system since the 2008 global crisis erupted. The three more major central banks- the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the central bank of Switzerland- could be added to the US Fed and the ECB to form a core group of the cooperative arrangement.

This core group could be enlarged to include (i) the central banks of the countries of which currencies are not widely held as reserves but internationalized such as those of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand and (ii) other central banks of emerging economies that are active in international finance.

This cooperative organization of major central banks is expected to:

i) Coordinate monetary policy of the member countries to the extent possible in a way that contributes

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to supplying an adequate amount of liquidity to the global economy ;

ii) Provide a liquidity safety net in cooperation with the IMF for those economies suffering from short term liquidity shortages through currency swaps, repurchase transactions and cross-border collateral arrangements

iii) Intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize major currencies and those of systemically important emerging economies in cooperation with the members’ finance ministries.

There is the question of whether the central banks of some of the emerging economies traded should be included in the cooperative arrangement. Their currencies are not convertible and internationally circulated. However, as a group, they hold a large amount of reserve, borrow from globally intermediated credit markets, and invest in a large variety of globally traded assets. These activities mean that irrespective of its definition, emerging economies actively participate in the process of creating global liquidity, and in this regard, their role has been growing .

For example, the Chinese RMB is not convertible and its capital markets are closed to foreign investors and savers, but changes in its monetary policy ripple through global financial markets, thereby changing the availability of global liquidity. It should be also noted that many emerging economies could participate in the safety net as both receivers and providers of reserve currency liquidity by making available part of their reserves.

Even if the major central banks agreed to a cooperative arrangement, it would be difficult to imagine any participating central bank will ever compromise on its domestic policy goals in the conduct of monetary policy for the sake of stabilizing the global economy. But the 2008 global financial crisis should be a reminder that their domestic policies have real consequences for the performances of other economies, sustaining stability of the global financial system is in their collective interest, and that in the absence of their cooperation, there is no easy way of stabilizing the global financial markets. Recognizing this critical importance, the potential members of the cooperative arrangement may be able to find some room for cooperation. Even if they could not coordinate their domestic policies, the member central banks could monitor developments in global financial markets and changes in their monetary policy to unearth the causes of large changes in the availability of global liquidity to identify the areas where they need to cooperate.

• Global Liquidity Safety NetAt this stage of discussion, the proposal for the

safety net-deliberated at the G-20- consists of (i) the new IMF facilities such as FCL, and PCL and (ii) lending of regional organizations for liquidity support such as the CMIM. In this proposal, the IMF will be the key institution,

supplying the bulk of liquidity to emerging economies when it is needed.

During the liquidity crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008, Korea alone had to secure three swap lines amounting in total to $90 billion before stopping the speculative attack on its currency. In view of this experience, it is not clear whether the IMF will have enough resources to meet the liquidity needs of a large number of emerging economies if many of them suffer at the same time from a major global financial crisis. It also remains to be seen whether the IMF could respond swiftly to emerging signs of a liquidity crisis in a country or a region to forestall a full blown liquidity crisis.

The Fed established currency swap lines of unlimited amounts with the central banks of the euro area, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to be activated in case the crisis threatened the stability of the global financial system in 2008. Later in 2009, six more central banks of advanced economies were added to the list. The Fed also offered swap lines to the central banks of four other emerging economies.

In the case of South Korea, the Fed swap played an important role in breaking up a speculative attack, not because of the swap amount-$30 billion- was large enough, but because of the implicit back up by a de facto global lender of last resort (Park 2011). One may question whether a similar support in terms of the availability of liquidity provided by the IMF could have been as effective as the Fed swap line.

The swap network could be strengthened if some of the central banks of emerging economies active in global finance join the cooperative arrangement. At this stage of discussion, it is not necessary to determine the qualifications for membership for or the amounts of swap lines to be accorded to those central banks of emerging economies. As a first approximation, most of the countries qualifying for either FCL or PCL at the IMF could be potential candidates.

One of the major benefits of the enlarged global swap arrangement is that it could send a clear signal to the market that the members of the central bank cooperative arrangement are prepared to activate the swap system whenever necessary to fend off any impending liquidity crisis in countries belonging to the system. This signal will make speculators think twice before attacking any currency. On their part, knowing that have access to a liquidity safety net for short - term financing, many emerging economies would have greater incentives to hold less in reserves than they do now, move to a more flexible exchange rate system, and to refrain from capital control.

Among the reserve currency countries, there is a concern that the enlargement could pose the risk of creating a moral hazard problem for the emerging economies participating in the swap system. Once they have the liquidity backing, the argument is that

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these economies may lose discipline in managing macroeconomic policy. It is difficult to imagine that any emerging economy would let its current account deficit expand beyond a sustainable level, would be reckless in borrowing in reserve currencies, or heedless in improving the safety and soundness of its financial institutions simply because they have access to the safety net.

However, if the moral hazard is a potentially serious problem that dissuades the reserve currency countries from opening the cooperative arrangement to emerging economies, the liquidity support could be offered only to those suffering from a capital account crisis of a short-run nature triggered, for instance, by a sudden evaporation of reserve currency liquidity. The emerging economies belonging to the network could also share the burden of managing the safety net by making available some of their reserves in extending swap lines to other members.

5. Regional liquidity support arrangementASEAN+3 established a regional liquidity support

system - CMIM - that is designed to provide short-term liquidity to the members suffering from a speculative

capital outflow almost ten years ago. Since its inception, it has never been subjected to a market test so that its effectiveness is yet to be known. Regional arrangements such as the CMIM could be an important component of the global liquidity support system, but little is known on how it should be structured and managed to be a reliable source of short-term liquidity. The G-20 may address viability of establishing similar arrangements in other regions. But before endorsing other regional arrangements, the G-20 may need to undertake a review of the size and operational details of the CMIM together with its linkage with the IMF to determine whether it could be an effective regional mechanism.

Now that the EU has decided to construct a European monetary fund operated independently from the IMF, new questions have risen as to what type of the linkages of these regional institutions with the IMF would be appropriate and how their activities could be coordinated to consolidate and improve efficiency of the global safety net.

REFERENCES:

1. BIS. 2011. Global Liquidity: Insights from the BIS statistics. Note for a meeting of the G-20 sub-working group on global liquidity management. Bank of International Settlements, March 25, 2011.

2. IMF. 2010. “Global Liquidity Expansion: Effects on “receiving” economies and policy response options”, in Global Financial Stability Report: Meeting new challenges to stability and building a safer system. International Monetary Fund, April 2010.

3. IMF. 2011. Measuring Global Luidity. Technical note for G-20 sub-working group on measuring global liquidity.4. Ostry, Jonathan D., Atish R. ghosh, Karl Habermeier, Luc Laeven, Marcos Chamon, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and

Annamaria Kokenyne, 2011. “Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?,” IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/11/06, International Monetary Fund

5. Park, Yung Chul and Chi-Young Song. 2011. “RMB Internationalization: Prospects and Implications for Economic Integration in East Asia,” Forthcoming in Asian Economic Papers.

6. Park, Yung Chul. 2011. “The Role of Macroprudential Policy for Financial Stability in East Asia’s Emerging Economies”, in The Role of Macroprudential Policy for Financial Stability in East Asia’s Emerging Economies edited by Eswar Prasad. Washington: The Brookings Institution.

7. Stiglitz, Joseph E. and Members of a UN Commission of Financial Experts. 2010. The Stiglitz Report: Reforming the International Monetary and Financial Systems in the Wake of the Global Crisis. New York: The New Press

8. Wyplosz, Charles. 2011. The Dollar is the Worst International Currency, Except for all the Others. Unpublished manuscript.

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НАЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ ФИНАНСОВАЯ АРХИТЕКТУРА И РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ВАЛЮТНЫЕ МЕХАНИЗМЫ

Серик АхановПредседатель Совета Ассоциации финансистов Казахстана

О новой Концепции мировой и националь-ной финансовой архитектуры

В целом финансовая архитектура выступает как движение структурированного национального капи-тала. Как научное понятие она представляет собой единство способа регулирования и конфигурации финансового института и имеет внешний и внутрен-ний аспекты. Пруденциальное регулирование уста-навливает «правила игры» в финансовом секторе, в частности, требования к достаточности капитала и концентрации рисков, внутреннему контролю и кор-поративному управлению. Конфигурация финансо-вого сектора отражает роль и значение отдельных видов финансовых институтов в кредитовании и страховании, инвестировании реального и потреби-тельского секторов.

Необходимость дальнейшего совершенствова-ния финансовой архитектуры связана с проблемами, обострившимися в период глобального экономичес-кого и финансового кризиса. Важно выделить такие проблемы, как уровень эффективности управления финансовым институтом со стороны отдельного ак-ционера, разрывы в уровнях концентрации и центра-лизации банковского капитала в сравнении со стра-ховым, пенсионным и другими формами капитала, а

также «отсечение» от банков аффилированных стра-ховых и инвестиционных, пенсионных и ипотечных, лизинговых и микрофинансовых, промышленных и строительных структур и др.

В целом реформа финансового сектора должна предполагать введение прямых и косвенных, а также ограничительных мер, снижение рисков и повыше-ние его устойчивости. Особое внимание уделяется совершенствованию таких основополагающих приз-наков пруденциального регулирования финансовых институтов, как требования к минимальной достаточ-ности капитала в части ее расчетов, кредитных, опе-рационных и рыночных рисков; методы банковского надзора в части управления рисками, обеспечения прозрачности и ответственности, трансграничного кредитования, рыночных новаций и секьюритизации; рыночная дисциплина в части требований, принци-пов и правил раскрытия информации.

Реформа финансового сектора: основные поло-жения.

Финансовая архитектура страны до кризиса являлась одной из лучших на постсоветском прост-ранстве. Вместе с тем глобальный экономический и финансовый кризис оказал сильное влияние на необ- ходимость модернизации финансового сектора. В среднесрочной перспективе фундаментальной ос-новой финансового сектора станут финансовые конгломераты с подчиненными им дочерними струк-турами в виде банков, страховых организаций, нако-пительных пенсионных фондов и др. При этом будут введены определенные ограничения по вхождению конгломерата в дочерние структуры, кредитованию и гарантированию, передаче активов и финансовой прозрачности клиентов.

В основном банки сосредоточатся на чисто кре-дитной деятельности. Они будут отсечены от явных и скрытых аффилированных структур в части стра-хового бизнеса, промышленных объектов, строи-тельных компаний. Особое внимание будет уделено регулированию уровня банковской маржи и уров-ня комиссионных платежей с целью недопущения сверхдоходов. Будут выработаны базовые принципы расширения кредитования реального сектора. Банки не должны будут прямо участвовать в капитале за-емщиков. При этом по линии реструктуризации они должны будут проводить работу с проблемными за-емщиками. С целью выполнения своих обязательств перед банком его клиенты должны будут привлекать дополнительный капитал и увеличивать капитализа-

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цию своих компаний, возможно, за счет институтов развития и фондов прямых инвестиций.

Особое внимание будет уделено вопросам кре-дитования и защиты прав потребителей и инвесто-ров с целью создания целостной системы защиты прав потребителей финансовых услуг и совершенст-вования механизмов социальных гарантий гражда-нам по вопросам ипотечного кредитования. Будут введены ограничения по максимальному размеру ставки вознаграждения, а также регламентации мер по взысканию задолженности по срокам и видам для неплатежеспособных заемщиков.

Особо тонкое регулирование должно быть в сфере взаимоотношений банка и заемщиков, вклад-чиков и заемщиков. Необходим не односторонний, а полноценный учет интересов сторон, регулирование их баланса и ненарушение принципов банковско-го бизнеса. К ним относится, например, возможное введение запрета на внесудебную реализацию зало-га без согласия заемщика и ограничение размеров пени, штрафов и неустоек. В то же время установ-ление предела по эффективным процентным став-кам скажется не только на банках, занимающихся в основном розничным и потребительским кредито-ванием, но также и на кредитных товариществах и микрофинансовых организациях. По сути дела, это ограничение ростовщичества, что вполне правомер-но.

Важное значение приобретают новые меры по укреплению защищенности инвесторов, в том числе миноритарных, а также достижение оптимального баланса прав, обеспечивающего приемлемую и на-дежную систему предоставления финансовых услуг и рентабельность для финансовых организаций. Будет дана оценка эффективности политики вознаг-раждения акционеров, менеджмента и сотрудников компаний с учетом системных рисков и нацеленнос-ти на долгосрочную эффективность компании. Не исключается внедрение новых налогов по дестиму-лированию непрозрачных вознаграждений. В целом подходы к надзору за компаниями будут модифици-рованы в сторону понимания содержания и рисков бизнеса компаний.

Анализ показывает, что с учетом мирового опыта стабилизационного и антикризисного регулирования необходимо разработать комплекс предложений по совершенствованию мер государственной поддерж-ки ликвидности и управления проблемными займа-ми, рекапитализации и реструктуризации банков. Но-вая стратегия развития национального финансового сектора должна определить его основные проблемы и риски, сильные и слабые стороны, возможности и угрозы в разрезе различных сегментов. Особое зна-чение имеет ретроспективный анализ эффективнос-ти действующего режима регулирования в докризис-ный период и в период кризиса.

Принципиальное значение имеет внедрение контрцикличного регулирования финансового сек-тора с учетом анализа наилучшей международной практики. Необходимо введение макропруденциаль-ного регулирования для обеспечения согласован-ности действий и мер, принимаемых монетарным органом и финансовым регулятором. Целесообраз-но обеспечение комплексного и унифицированно-го надзора за системными рисками финансовых институтов. Далее, это предельно взвешенные и обоснованные решения по ограничению внешнего фондирования до определенного и разумного уров-ня, учитывая ограниченность внутреннего фонди-рования, установление определенной зависимости между динамикой активов финансовых институтов и валовым внутренним продуктом с учетом стадии делового цикла, депозитами и кредитами, прини-мая во внимание интересы клиентов и потребности реального сектора. Важное значение имеет стиму-лирование кредитования со стороны банков лишь заемщиков с прозрачной структурой собственности и эффективной моделью бизнеса. Разумеется, акту-альной остается выработка стратегии по выходу го-сударства из капитала системообразующих банков.

Трудно переоценить использование рискориен-тированного надзора. Важна разумная гибкость ре-гуляторных требований к финансовым институтам в части показателей достаточности капитала, леве-реджа и норм ликвидности.

Достигнутый уровень развития национально-го финансового сектора, переход его сегментов на международные стандарты (Базель III), евростан-дарты–2007, вхождение страны в Таможенный союз, предстоящее вступление Казахстана в Единое эконо-мическое пространство и ВТО, опыт развитых стран актуализируют идею взаимосвязи национальной фи-нансовой архитектуры и региональных валютных ме-ханизмов. Это нормы, регулирующие общие вопросы денежно-кредитной политики, денежного обраще-ния, функционирования платежной системы, валют-ное регулирование и валютный контроль, а также ор-ганизацию противодействия легализации доходов, полученных незаконным путем, и финансированию терроризма и др. Это нормы, отражающие правовой статус монетарного органа и мегарегулятора, участ-вующих в регулировании и надзоре национального финансового сектора и финансовых институтов и др. Это нормы, регулирующие создание, деятельность и ликвидацию финансовых институтов, порядок ли-цензирования финансовых операций, правила обя-зательного гарантирования депозитов, взносов, вып-лат, страхования, условия регулирования платежей и переводов денег и др.

Региональные валютные механизмы. Они име-ют несколько этапов становления. Это – зона сво-бодной торговли, далее таможенный союз (ТС),

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затем – экономический союз и наконец, высшая сту-пень интеграции – валютный союз (ВС). Существен-но важно отметить тот факт, что Казахстан является участником нескольких интеграционных образова-ний: Евразийского экономического союза (ЕврАзЭС), Центральноазиатского сотрудничества (ЦАЭС), Шан-хайской организации сотрудничества (ШОС) и др.

Выгоды от участия в ЕврАзЭС для реального бизнеса стран-участниц заключаются, прежде всего, в том, что деловая активность развивается в рам-ках единого экономического пространства, которое поддерживается благодаря унификации националь-ных законодательств стран Сообщества и созда-ния равных условий для хозяйствующих объектов, действующих на этом пространстве. При перемеще-нии товаров и услуг, произведенных на территории ЕврАзЭС, через внутренние границы Сообщества не взимаются таможенные пошлины. За счет снижения трансакционных издержек товары, произведенные на территории стран ЕврАзЭС, становятся более конкурентоспособными по сравнению с товарами третьих стран. Немалую роль играет также возмож-ность использования имеющегося потенциала инно-вационных технологий и интеллектуальных ресурсов государств Сообщества.

В ходе формирования качественно нового ин-теграционного объединения будут созданы принци-пиальные основы для свободы передвижения това-ров и услуг, рабочей силы и капиталов, информации и знаний. В перспективе это будет катализатором создания Валютного союза и его институтов как за-кономерного этапа развития Единого экономическо-го пространства (ЕЭП). Оно даст новые импульсы созданию условий и предпосылок для согласования валютной политики и ввода единой валюты стран-участниц. Стратегические направления данного про-цесса отражены в Концепции развития финансового сектора Республики Казахстан.

Важное значение имеют вопросы необходимос-ти и приоритетности, сроков и этапов, критериев и параметров, ранжирования интеграционных рисков формирования ВС, его институтов. Акцентируется внимание на позитивной роли центростремительных тенденций в интеграционных процессах. Отсюда возможно создание ВС, ускорение введения единой валюты. У стран-участниц ЕЭП есть семидесяти-летний срок существования в одной стране, общие архитектоника, экономическое и политическое, исто-рическое и культурное прошлое. Более того, есть ин- тегральные экономические и геополитические ин-тересы, вызовы и возможности перехода к рынку, болевые точки и дисбалансы развития экономики, проблемы реструктуризации и институциональной инфраструктуры, традиции государственного регули-рования. В то же время у данных стран разные фи-лософия трансформационного эксперимента и фи-

нансовая архитектура, стратегии и структурная адап- тация, последовательность, темпы и характер ре-форм, механизмы регулирования реального и фи-нансового секторов, режимы обменных курсов нацио-нальных валют и флуктуации реальных процентных ставок, аномалии и асимметрии информации и др.

На наш взгляд, есть фундаментальные предпо-сылки осуществимости проекта «единая валюта». Он отвечает коренным геополитическим интересам народов стран-участниц и обеспечению их жизнен-но важного консенсуса. Но эффективность валютной интеграции стран-участниц должна стать реальным императивом социально-экономической политики в аспектах евразийской доктрины и принципов гео-экономики. При этом должны быть осуществлены и соответствующие внутригосударственные правила и процедуры. Тенденции глобализации на постсо- циалистическом пространстве таковы, что объеди- нение валютных систем и формирование ВС в рам-ках ЕЭП обусловлены объективными законами интеграции экономических и финансовых систем стран-участниц.

Формирование нового регионального интегра-ционного объединения, по-видимому, будет происхо-дить на основе модели разноуровневой и разноско-ростной интеграции с учетом принципов историзма и добровольности, реализма и здравого смысла, эко-номической рациональности. Прогнозируется, что становление ЕЭП пройдет несколько этапов, каж-дый продолжительностью до 3-4 лет, с присущим им уровнем взаимодействия и развития валютных про-цессов.

В течение данного периода могут быть постав-лены вопросы реального функционирования ВС и оптимальной валютной зоны. Возможно улучшение согласования денежно-кредитной, налогово-бюджет-ной и инвестиционной политики. Может быть, нач-нут действовать наднациональные регулирующие органы, в частности, единый валютный институт как основа ВС, которым каждая из стран-участниц на сугубо добровольной основе передаст часть эконо-мических полномочий. Вероятно, будут сняты ва-лютные ограничения. К этому рубежу должен быть создан комплекс социально-экономических предпо-сылок и условий для ввода единой валюты – вначале безналичной, а затем и наличной – стран-участниц.

Фундаментальным фактором в долгосрочной перспективе является прямое согласование и ре-альное соблюдение основных макроэкономических параметров странами-участницами. С учетом опыта Европейского Союза (ЕС) можно будет использовать такие макроэкономические параметры, как уровни инфляции не более 3-5%, дефицита бюджета – не более 3-4% к валовому внутреннему продукту, обще-го внешнего долга – 60-70% к валовому внутреннему продукту и др. По мере достижения этих макроэконо-

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мических параметров нужно будет прямо и косвенно согласовывать основные принципы, направления и показатели денежно-кредитной и налогово-бюджет-ной, внешнеторговой, инвестиционной и социальной политики стран-участниц.

Опыт ЕС показал, что перед введением евро произошли рост цен и колебания обменных курсов национальных валют стран-участниц. На финан-совых рынках наблюдался всплеск спекулятивных операций. Увеличились потребительские расходы, и наблюдался некоторый отток вкладов населения из банковской системы. После ввода же евро некото-рые страны ЕС, например, Германия и Франция не смогли поддерживать в рамках европейского Пакта стабильности макроэкономические параметры на соответствующем уровне. Это сказалось на внесе-нии определенных коррективов в общую денежно-кредитную политику ЕС. Современный бюджетный кризис в Греции, Португалии, Ирландии, Исландии показал необходимость скоординированной общей монетарной политики в рамках ЕС.

В этой связи для обеспечения монетарного единства ЕЭП важным будет создание механизмов смягчения последствий введения единой валюты для экономик стран-участниц на основе либерализа-ции рынка капиталов. Хозяйствующим субъектам ре-ального и финансового секторов чрезвычайно важно будет полностью перейти на стандарты ЕС. В рамках ВС должна быть сформирована единая платежная система и определена организация расчетов в еди-ной безналичной валюте, а позднее – порядок вве-дения единой наличной валюты как единственного законного платежного средства на территории стран-участниц. Необходимо будет учитывать достигнутый кредитный рейтинг стран-участниц, стабильность и статус их национальных валют, в частности, переход к конвертируемости по текущему счету и по счету движения капитала, резервные функции и условия взаимной обратимости. Гипотетически можно пред-положить, что некоторое время национальные валю-ты стран-участниц могут обращаться параллельно с последующим замещением их единой валютой. Принципиально важной будет выработка эффек-тивного режима обменного курса единой валюты как стабильного и равновесного, направленного на выполнение функций международного платежного средства и установление валютного приоритета, со-действие единству денежного, торгового и капиталь-ного потоков, сохранение уровня конкурентоспособ-ности производства стран-участниц.

Опыт ЕС показывает, что формирование едино-го регулятора – это длительный исторический про-цесс. В 1957 г. было основано Европейское экономи-ческое сообщество. К 1968 г. сформировались зона свободной торговли и Таможенный союз. В 1979 г. была создана европейская валютная система для сотрудничества в области монетарной политики. С

июля 1990 г. по январь 1999 г. проходило формиро-вание Европейского экономического и Валютного со-юза. К 1993 г. был создан общий европейский рынок с отсутствием ограничений на движение рабочей силы, товаров и нетарифных барьеров. Началась координация макроэкономической политики стран-участниц. В январе 1994 г. учрежден Европейский валютный институт, а с января 1999 г. его права в области монетарного регулирования были переданы Европейскому центральному банку. С января 1999 г. функционирует Валютный союз с единой валютой в виде евро. Таким образом, с момента начала инсти-туциональной интеграции до формирования единого регулятора прошло 42 года, а с момента формирова-ния Таможенного союза – 31 год.

Опыт ЕС показывает относительно высокую эффективность Европейского центрального бан-ка (ЕЦБ) как наднационального органа. Этот банк осуществляет общую денежно-кредитную политику стран-участниц ЕС, контролирует центральные (на-циональные) банки стран-участниц ЕС в реализа-ции их денежно-кредитной политики, осуществляет функции управления международными резервами и эмиссионного центра, поддержки общей платежной системы и организации валютного регулирования. Функции управления международными резервами и эмиссии в утвержденных пределах, а также бан-ковского надзора и информационного обслуживания частично переданы отдельным центральным (нацио-нальным) банкам.

Формирование будущего центрального банка ЕЭП займет длительный исторический период. Он как наднациональный регулирующий орган ВС должен быть наделен соответствующими функциями и пол-номочиями, правами и обязанностями. Практичес- кое создание данного банка означает наделение его функциями управления международными резервами и валютного регулирования, эмиссионного центра и управления единой платежной системой, обще-го финансового надзора и информационно-анали-тического обслуживания. Возможно делегирование его некоторых функций отдельным центральным (национальным) банкам стран-участниц. Голоса их представителей в совете директоров Центрального банка ЕЭП в основном, видимо, будут распределены с учетом доли стран-участниц в уставном капитале, учитывающей масштабы и динамику их экономик, имеющийся потенциал и достигнутые показатели экономической мощи и финансовой устойчивости.

Необходимо учитывать кратко- и долгосрочные экономические эффекты для Казахстана от валют-ной интеграции. Позитивные тенденции начальной интеграции будут проявляться в следующем. По оценке, интеграционные эффекты будут сопровож-даться примерно 2-3-процентным дополнительным приростом ВВП. Например, при выполнении задан-ных основных макроэкономических параметров, а

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также, например, цене нефти не ниже 50-60 долла-ров США за баррель монетарная, фискальная и ин-вестиционная политика страны должны быть более или менее эффективными. Стабилизация тенге в большей степени должна будет учитывать стратегию и тактику стран-участниц в денежно-кредитной сфе-ре. Негативные же тенденции начальной интеграции могут проявиться в виде обострения конкурентной борьбы между фирмами и финансовыми института-ми стран-участниц.

Реальное формирование ВС как естественно-исторического процесса является стратегическим направлением политико-экономического развития стран-участниц ЕЭП. В перспективе единая валюта

должна быть более или менее стабильной. Она бу-дет опираться на экономику, имеющую однородные условия, крупномасштабный и диверсифицирован-ный характер, растущую конкурентоспособность и устойчивые реальные и финансовые секторы, рабо-тающие по международным стандартам. Казахстан должен выиграть за счет увеличения объемов тор-говли со странами-участницами ЕЭП и расширения финансовых услуг, усиления специализации и повы-шения эффективности интеграции. Реальность дан-ного прогноза развития ВС должно показать будущее евразийской интеграции в рамках ЕЭП.

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NATIONAl FINANCIAl ARCHITECTURE AND REGIONAl CURRENCY MECHANISMS

By Serik Akhanov Chairman of the Board of Financiers Association of Kazakhstan

New concept of world and national financial architecture

On the whole the financial architecture serves as the movement of a structured national capital. As a scientific concept it represents the unity of control method and configuration of the financial institution and has an external and internal aspects. Prudential regulation establishes the rules of the game in the financial sector, in particular, requirements for capital adequacy and concentration risk, internal controls and corporate governance. The configuration of the financial sector reflects the role and importance of certain types of financial institutions in credit and insurance, real investment and consumer sectors.

Need to further improvement of financial architecture is associated with problems aggravated by the global economic and financial crisis. It is important to highlight such issues as the level of management efficiency of the financial institution by an individual shareholder, the gap in the levels of concentration and centralization of bank capital in comparison with insurance, pensions and other forms of capital, as well as “cut off” from the banks of affiliated insurance and investment, pension and mortgage , leasing and microfinance, industrial and building structures, etc.

In general, financial sector reform should involve the introduction of direct and indirect, as well as restrictive measures, reduce of risks and increase its stability. Particular attention is paid to improvement of such basic features of prudential regulation of financial institutions, such as requirements for minimum capital adequacy with regard to its accounts, credit, operational and market risks, methods of banking supervision in terms of risk management, transparency and accountability, cross-border lending and securitization market innovations ; market discipline in terms of requirements, principles and rules of disclosure.

Financial sector reform: key provisions The financial architecture of the country before the

crisis was one of the best post-Soviet space. However, global economic and financial crisis has had a strong influence on the need to modernize the financial sector. In the medium term, the fundamental basis of the financial sector will be financial conglomerates with subordinate subsidiaries in the form of banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc. At this, some restrictions will be put on joining subsidiaries by conglomerate, crediting and guaranteeing, transferring the assets and financial transparency of clients.

Mostly the banks will focus on the pure lending activities. They will be cut off from the overt and covert affiliates in terms of the insurance business, industrial and construction companies. Particular attention will be given to regulating the level of bank margin and the level of commission payments to avoid windfall profits. Basic principles for expanding the lending to the real sector will be worked out. Banks will not have to participate directly in the capital of the borrowers. At the same time they will have to work with distressed borrowers on restructuring line. In order to fulfill its obligations to its bank customers will have to raise additional capital and increase the capitalization of their companies, possibly at the expense of development institutions and private equity funds.

Particular focus will be on crediting and protection of the rights of consumers and investors to create an integrated system of protection of the rights of consumers of financial services and improving the mechanisms of social guarantees to citizens on the mortgage. There will be restrictions on the maximum size of interest rates, as well as regulatory measures to recover the debt by maturity and types for insolvent debtors.

Extremely fine regulation should be in the relationship between bank and the borrowers, savers and borrowers. It is needed not one-sided, but a full consideration of the interests of the parties, the regulation of their balance sheet and non-infringement of the principles of the banking business. These include, for example, a possible ban on non-judicial implementation of the collateral without the consent of the borrower and limiting the size of penalties, fines and forfeits. At the same time setting a limit on the effective interest rates affect not only banks, dealing mainly in retail and consumer lending, but also in the credit associations and microfinance institutions. In fact, this restriction is usury, which is quite legitimate.

The importance is being taken by new measures on strengthening the protection of safety of investors including minority shareholders, as well as achieving an optimal balance of rights, providing affordable and reliable system of financial services and profitability for financial institutions. The effectiveness of the policy interest of shareholders, management and employees of companies with regard to systemic risk and focus on long-term effectiveness of the company will be assessed. Introduction of new taxes to discourage the non-transparent fees is not excepted. In general, approaches to supervision companies will be modified in the direction of understanding the content and business risk of companies.

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The analysis shows that in view of the world experience in stabilization and crisis management it is necessary to develop a set of proposals to improve state support for liquidity and problem loans management, recapitalization and restructuring of banks. The new strategy for the development of the domestic financial sector should identify its key challenges and risks, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the context of different segments. The particular importance has a retrospective analysis of the effectiveness of the current regulatory regime in the pre-crisis period and during the crisis.

Of fundamental importance is the introduction of counter-cycle regulation of financial sector taking into account the analysis of international best practice. It is necessary to introduce macro-prudential regulation to ensure consistency of actions and measures taken by the monetary authority and financial regulator. It is advisable to ensure an integrated and unified supervision over the systemic risks of financial institutions. Further it is extremely balanced and informed decisions on restriction external funding to a certain and reasonable level, taking into consideration the limited internal funding, establishment of certain relationship between the dynamics of assets of financial institutions and gross domestic product taking into account the stage of the business cycle, deposits and loans, taking into account the interests of clients and the needs of the real sector. Significantly important to encourage lending by banks only borrowers with a transparent ownership structure and efficient business model. Of course development of a strategy on exit of the state from the capital of systemically important banks remains important.

It is difficult to overestimate the use of risk-oriented supervision. Reasonable flexibility of regulatory requirements to financial institutions is important in terms of capital adequacy, leverage and liquidity standards.

Achieved level of development of the national financial sector, the transition of its segments to the international standards (Basel III), European standards, 2007, the country’s entry into the Customs Union, the forthcoming accession of Kazakhstan to the single economic space and the WTO, the experience of developed countries actualize the idea of interconnection of the national financial architecture and regional currency mechanisms. These are the rules governing the common questions of monetary policy, money, payment system, currency regulation and currency control, as well as organizing anti-money laundering of illegally obtained and financing of terrorism, etc. This is the norm, reflecting the legal status of the monetary authority and mega-regulator involved in regulation and supervision of domestic financial sector and financial institutions, etc. This is the rules governing the establishment, operation and liquidation of financial institutions, licensing of financial transactions, the rules of the mandatory deposit insurance, deposits, payments, insurance, regulatory environment payments and money transfers etc.

Regional monetary mechanisms. They have several stages of development - free trade zone, then a customs union (CU), then - the economic union and finally the highest level of integration - Monetary Union (MU). It is essential to note the fact that Kazakhstan is a member of several integrative establishments: Eurasian Economic Union (EEC), the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CAPS), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), etc.

Benefits of participation in the EurAsEC for the real business of the participating countries are primarily in the fact that business activity is developing within a single economic space, which is supported by the harmonization of national legislations of the Community and create equal conditions for economic entities acting on this space. When transfering goods and services produced within the territory of Eurasian Economic Community through the inner boundary of the Community customs duties are not paid. By reducing transaction costs, goods manufactured in the territory of the EurAsEC countries become more competitive compared to goods from third countries. Significant role plays the possibility of using the existing potential of innovative technologies and intellectual resources of the Community.

During the formation of a high quality new integration association there will be established fundamental principles for free movement of goods and services, labor and capital, information and knowledge. In the future it will be a catalyst for creation of the Monetary Union and its institutions as a natural stage of development of the Single Economic Space (CES). It will give new impulses to create the conditions and prerequisites for monetary policy coordination and input of the single currency of participating countries. Strategic direction of this process is reflected in the Concept of development of the financial sector in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The issues of necessity and priority, timing and milestones, criteria and parameters, the integration of ranking the risk of WC establishment, its institutions are of significant importance. Attention focuses on the positive role of centripetal tendencies in the integration processes. Hence it is possible to create WC, accelerate the introduction of the single currency. The countries participating in the EEA have septuagenarian period of existence in one country, the general architectonics, economical and political, historical and cultural past. Moreover, there are integrated economic and geopolitical interests, challenges and opportunities of transition, pain points and imbalances in the economy, the problems of restructuring and institutional infrastructure, traditions of government regulation. At the same time these countries’ have different philosophies of transformation of the experiment and the financial architecture, strategy and structural adjustment, sequence, pace and nature of reforms, mechanisms for regulating the real and financial sectors, modes of exchange rates and fluctuations in real interest rates, the anomalies and asymmetries of information and etc.

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In our view, there are fundamental prerequisites for the feasibility of the project “single currency”. It serves the fundamental geopolitical interests of the peoples of member countries and ensure their vital consensus. But the effectiveness of monetary integration of member countries should become a real imperative for socio-economic policies in the aspects of the Eurasian doctrine and principles of geo-economics. At this there also should be implemented relevant domestic rules and procedures. Globalization trends in post-socialistic space are like the union of monetary systems and the formation of aircraft in the framework of the SES are due to objective laws of economic integration and financial systems of member countries.

Formation of new regional integration unit, apparently, will be based on a different-level and different-speed integration model with regard to the principles of historicism and voluntarism, realism and common sense, economic rationality. It is predicted that the formation of the SES will be of several stages, each lasting up to 3-4 years with their inherent level of interaction and exchange of development processes.

During this period there may appear questions of the real functioning of WC and an optimal currency area. There is a possibility of improvement of coordination of monetary, fiscal and investment policies. It is possible that supranational regulatory bodies shall stat acting, in particular, a single Monetary Institute as a basis of WC, whom each of the participating countries will give part of the economic powers on a purely voluntary basis. Likely the exchange restrictions shall be lifted. To this point has to be a complex of socio-economic background and conditions for entering the single currency of member countries - firstly non-cash and then in cash.

A fundamental factor in the long term is the direct negotiation and real respect for the basic macroeconomic parameters of the participating countries. Based on the experience of the European Union (EU) can be used the macroeconomic parameters such as inflation rates no more than 3-5%, the budget deficit - no more than 3-4% of gross domestic product, total external debt - 60-70% of the gross domestic products, etc. As you achieve these macroeconomic parameters it will be needed to coordinate directly or indirectly the basic principles, directions and indicators of monetary and fiscal, foreign trade, investment and social policies of the participating countries.

The EU experience has shown that before the introduction of the euro came rising prices and fluctuating exchange rates of national currencies of participating countries. In the financial markets it was experienced a surge of speculative operations. Increased consumer spending, and there was some outflow of deposits from the banking system. After entering the euro some EU countries such as Germany and France could not maintain macroeconomic parameters at the appropriate level in the frame of European Stability Pact. This has affected the introduction of certain adjustments to the

overall monetary policy of the EU. A modern budget crisis in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, showed the need for a coordinated common monetary policy within the EU.

In this regard, to ensure that monetary unity of the SES will be important to establish mechanisms to mitigate the consequences of introducing a single currency for the economies of member countries on the basis of capital market liberalization. Economic entities of the real and financial sectors is essential to fully migrate to EU standards. Within the AC must be formed by a single payment system and determined the organization of calculations in a single non-cash currency, and later - the procedure of introducing a single currency in cash as the sole legal tender in the participating countries. There will be need to consider the progress the credit rating of the participating countries, stability and the status of their national currencies, in particular, the transition to convertibility on current account and capital account, reserve functions and conditions mutually convertible. Hypothetically, one can assume that while the national currencies of participating countries can apply in parallel with the subsequent replacement of the single currency. It is crucially important to develop an effective regime for the exchange rate of the single currency as a stable equilibrium and designed to act as an international means of payment and the establishment of exchange of priority, promote unity of monetary, trade and capital flows, maintaining the level of competitiveness of the participating countries.

The EU experience shows that the formation of a single regulator - it is a long historical process. In 1957 was founded the European Economic Community. By 1968 there was formed a free trade area and customs union. In 1979 it was established the European Monetary System for cooperation in monetary policy. From July 1990 to January 1999 - formation of the European Economic and Monetary Union. By 1993 it was created a common European market with no restrictions on the movement of labor, goods and non-tariff barriers. Coordination of macroeconomic policies of the participating countries was started. In January 1994 there was established the European Monetary Institute, and from January 1999 the right of monetary control were transferred to the European Central Bank. Since January 1999 currency union is functioning with a common currency as the euro. Thus, it is 42 years since the beginning of institutional integration before the formation of a single regulator, and 31 years since the formation of the Customs Union.

The EU experience shows a relatively high efficiency of the European Central Bank (ECB) as a supranational body. This bank provides a common monetary policy of EU member states, controls the central (national) banks of EU member states in implementing their monetary policy, administers the international reserves, and the emission center, support for common payment system and the organization of foreign exchange regulation. Function of international reserves management and

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emissions within the approved limit, as well as banking supervision and information services partially transferred to a separate central (national) banks.

Formation of the future of central bank of CES will take a long historical period. As a supranational regulatory body WC should be empowered by respective functions and powers, rights and responsibilities. Practical establishment of the bank means giving him control functions of international reserves and foreign exchange regulation, the emission center and administration of a single payment system, the overall financial supervision and the information and analytical services. Ability to delegate some of its functions to individual central (national) banks of participating countries. Votes of their representatives on the board of directors of the Central Bank of the SES in general, seem to be distributed by the proportion of the participating countries in the share capital, taking into account the magnitude and dynamics of their economies, capacity and achieved rates of economic power and financial stability.

It is necessary to take into account short-and long-term economic effects of monetary integration in Kazakhstan. Positive trends in the initial integration will occure in the following. It is estimated that the

integration effect will be accompanied by about 2 to 3 percent additional GDP growth. For example, when the predefined key macroeconomic parameters, as well as, for example, oil price not lower than 50-60 dollars per barrel, monetary, fiscal and investment policies of the country should be more or less effective. Stabilization of KZT to a greater extent should be taken into account the strategy and tactics of the participating countries in the monetary sphere. The negative trend is the initial integration can be manifested in the form of increasing competition among firms and financial institutions of member countries.

The actual formation of WC as a process of natural history is a strategic political and economic development of member states the EEA. In the future single currency should be more or less stable. It will build on the economy with homogeneous conditions, large and diversified, increasing competitiveness and sustainable real and financial sectors, according to international standards. Kazakhstan has to win at the expense of increasing trade with member countries and EEA enlargement of financial services, enhance expertise and improve the efficiency of integration. The reality of the prediction of WC is to show the future of Eurasian integration within the SES.

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Тимур Кулибаев - Председатель Правления АО «Фонд национального благосостояния «Самрук-Казына», Председатель Ассоциации “KAZENERGY”, Председатель Президиума НЭП Казахстана «Союз «Атамекен»

“ E u r a s i a n Economic Review”: Ти-мур Аскарович, Фонд национального благо- состояния «Самрук-Казына» играет клю-чевую роль в экономи-ке республики. Какие цели и задачи ставит перед собой Фонд в ближайшем будущем?

Тимур Кулибаев: Задач много. Главные из них обрисовал недав-

но Президент Нурсултан Абишевич Назарбаев на расширенном заседании нового состава правитель-ства. Он поставил задачу превратить компании Фон-да в «национальных чемпионов». В мощных игроков, способных внедрять инновации, готовых реализо-вать проекты любой сложности в своих отраслях и конкурировать на региональных и мировых рынках.

Вторая важная задача - провести «народное IPO» ряда госкомпаний, с тем, чтобы привлечь казах-станцев к фондовому рынку, предоставив им возмож-ность приумножить свои доходы. Здесь мы уже на-чали активную работу совместно с правительством по разработке концепции и механизмов вывода на-циональных компаний на казахстанский фондовый рынок.

Развитие инноваций Глава государства назвал основой для модернизации Казахстана. И эта задача является нашим приоритетом. Фонд как основной ак-ционер и единый корпоративный центр управления национальными компаниями должен играть ключе-вую роль. Мы приступили к разработке корпоратив-ной инновационно-технологической стратегии – как в целом по группе, так и в отношении самых крупных компаний. Создан Инновационный совет фонда, а в дочерних компаниях – Научно-технические советы. Ключ к успеху мы видим во внедрении современных методов управления инноватикой, обеспечивающих в комплексе реализацию всего процесса - от идеи до конечного продукта.

Особое внимание мы должны обратить на не-которые отраслевые программы. В частности, речь

идет об атомной промышленности. В этой отрасли мы можем занять ведущие позиции в мире, в то же время сейчас, после японских событий, обозна-чились определенные риски относительно будуще-го ядерной энергетики. Нам нужна безошибочная стратегия развития. Другое направление – геология, разведка недр, в которой Казахстан за два десятиле-тия серьезно отстал. И это отставание мы обязаны быстро ликвидировать.

Если говорить о краткосрочных задачах, то в этом году мы полностью завершим реализацию антикризисной программы правительства. В основ-ном эта работа касается принадлежащего нам Фонда недвижимости, необходимо закончить строительство 16 жилых объектов.

Не менее важны для Фонда задачи внутренне-го порядка. Имею в виду совершенствование систе-мы управления дочерними компаниями. «Самрук- Казына» - не хозяйствующая структура, фонд не вмешивается в операционную деятельность дочер-них компаний, не может и не должен подменять со-бой экспертный персонал компаний. Мы управляем активами.

А это значит, что во главу угла должны быть пос- тавлены принципы корпоративного управления. Создавая корпоративные документы и регламенты, формируя процедуры разработки, принятия и реали-зации стратегических решений, внедряя точные кри-терии оценки, мы сможем добиваться гораздо боль-шей эффективности дочерних компаний, чем если будем глубоко погружаться в конкретную экономику тех или иных проектов.

“EER”: Вы возглавляете Ассоциацию “KAZENERGY”, в которую входят крупные ком-пании нефтяного и энергетического сектора. Какие основные вопросы решаются Ассоциаци-ей в настоящее время?

Т.К.: Темпы развития нефтяного сектора Казах-стана значительно опережают среднемировые. За 20 лет независимости наша страна почти в 4 раза увеличила производство нефти, тогда как весь мир – менее чем в полтора раза. Казахстан превращает-ся в новый центр добычи и экспорта нефти мирового уровня.

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Это стало возможным благодаря сотрудничеству государства и зарубежных компаний, лучшему ин-вестиционному климату, поощрению стратегических альянсов Казахстана и иностранных инвесторов. Этот процесс активно поддерживает Ассоциация “KAZENERGY”, объединяющая более 50 компаний из различных стран мира, действующих на террито-рии Казахстана.

Внутри страны деятельность энергетического комплекса имеет высокую социальную составля-ющую. Компании данного сектора участвуют в ре-шении вопросов поддержки отечественных това-ропроизводителей и создания новых рабочих мест, в программах профессионального образования и квалификационного роста казахстанцев, реализуют разнообразные гуманитарные проекты. Объединяя усилия различных компаний, KAZENERGY форми-рует эффективную модель участия корпоративного сектора в общегосударственной жизни.

На мой взгляд, у Ассоциации может быть ши-рокое поле деятельности в разработке в Казахста-не высоких отраслевых стандартов, соответствую-щих или хотя бы приближенных к стандартам API (American Petroleum Institute), являющихся этало-нами в нефтяной промышленности. С этой целью Ассоциация может аккумулировать наработки научно-исследовательских институтов, использовать опыт ведущих зарубежных компаний, работающих на Тенгизе, Карачаганаке, Кашагане.

Именно практики должны разрабатывать стан-дарты, а государство затем их утверждать. Нефтяни-ки, я уверен, могут сделать эту работу на «отлично».

“EER”: Что Вы можете сказать о реализа-ции Карты индустриализации, важной состав-ляющей госпрограммы ФИИР?

Т.К.: Фонд «Самрук-Казына» остается крупней-шим оператором Государственной программы фор-сированного индустриально-инновационного раз-вития. 51% от общего объема инвестиций ГПФИИР, или $22 млрд., приходится на 20 проектов Фонда. В прошлом году с участием наших компаний осущест-влялось 13 проектов, в текущем году стартует еще 7 проектов.

Близки к завершению 4 объекта стратегического значения. Среди них производство грузовых вагонов, на базе ТОО «Таман», мощностью 3 тыс. вагонов в год в Экибастузе, открытие рабочего движения по железнодорожным участкам «Жетыген – Коргас» и «Узень – госграница с Туркменистаном», строи- тельство Мойнакской ГЭС.

Реализуемые нами проекты представлены практически во всех приоритетных секторах эко-номики, являются крупнейшими с точки зрения масштаба привлекаемых инвестиций, а также потенциального мультипликативного эффекта.

Они способствуют диверсификации экономики и направлены на увеличение глубины переработ-ки сырья на действующих и вновь создаваемых предприятиях, увеличение энергогенерирующих мощностей действующих станций и строительство новых, развитие транзитного потенциала страны. Реализация этих проектов позволит создать на время строительства более 25 тысячи рабочих мест и, по мере их ввода в эксплуатацию, порядка 9 тысяч постоянных рабочих мест.

“EER”: Какие основные мероприятия про-водятся НЭП Казахстана «Союз «Атамекен» по решению проблем субъектов малого и среднего бизнеса?

Т.К.: В последнее время проблемы малого и среднего бизнеса стали сводить к гуманизации уго-ловной ответственности за экономические правона-рушения. Это неоправданно узкий взгляд на вещи. «Союз «Атамекен» предлагает более системное и масштабное видение, которое можно выразить в по-нятии «либерализация», понимаемом, прежде всего как гармонизация экономических отношений.

А это означает, что либерализация, помимо уго-ловной составляющей, должна включать и вопросы экономического регулирования, налоговых отноше-ний, инвестиционного климата, формирования дело-вой среды и т.д.

На наш взгляд, назрела необходимость серьез-ного пересмотра методов правового регулирования предпринимательской деятельности. Мы должны выстроить такую правовую систему в экономике, ко-торая бы не сдерживала, а, напротив, подстегивала деловую активность бизнеса.

Руководство страны понимает это и предприни-мает конкретные шаги. Недавно Глава государства поручил уменьшить количество лицензий и других разрешительных документов в сфере деятельности бизнеса на 30%. В свою очередь, правительство под-готовило законодательные предложения по дальней-шей гуманизации уголовного законодательства и по-вышению уровня защищенности интересов частного бизнеса. Безусловно, «Атамекен» приветствует эти решения государства и готов активно способство-вать их скорейшей реализации.

В ближайшее время Национальная экономичес-кая палата проведет ревизию всего действующего законодательства на предмет соответствия поруче-ниям Президента по поддержке бизнеса и развитию экономики. По ее результатам в правительство будут направлены новые рекомендации по реформирова-нию правового поля страны.

Мы изучаем передовой международный опыт и предлагаем, на примере развитых стран, разрабо-тать Предпринимательский (Коммерческий) кодекс, в значительной степени ориентированный на обеспе-

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чение деловых свобод бизнесу и защиту от необос-нованного преследования.

Наш мандат и наша обязанность, как ведущего объединения казахстанского бизнеса, состоит в том, чтобы создать максимально комфортные условия для развития частного сектора, технологического и производительного прорыва, стимулирования инвес-тиций, выхода казахстанской экономики на уровень развитых стран.

Только в минувшем году экспертами «Атаме-кена» было подготовлено более полторы тысячи заключений на проекты законов, постановлений Правительства, приказов министров, технических регламентов. Мы направили свыше 1600 обращений в интересах предпринимателей в правительствен-ные структуры и министерства, органы суда и про-куратуры всех уровней, в национальные компании и государственные институты развития. При нашей поддержке более сотни предприятий смогли вос-пользоваться преференциями в рамках президентс-кой программы «Дорожная карта бизнеса-2020», по-лучить кредитные и экспортные субсидии.

Любому государству для формирования эф-фективной экономической политики необходим не-зависимый контр-партнер, способный посмотреть на проблему глазами не чиновника, а предпринима-теля. Наш «Союз «Атамекен» способен быть таким партнером, поскольку руководствуется не только со-лидарными интересами бизнеса, но и интересами страны в целом.

“EER”: Вы также являетесь одним из клю-чевых спикеров на IV Астанинском экономичес-ком форуме. Какие результаты Вы ожидаете от форума?

Т.К.: Астанинский экономический форум стал уже традиционной площадкой для обсуждения гло-бальных экономических трендов, анализа текущей ситуации и путей дальнейшего развития как миро-вой экономики в целом, так и экономики Казахста-на. Здесь собираются маститые ученые, лауреаты

Нобелевской премии, а также серьезные эконо- мисты-практики.

Мы не в первый раз обсуждаем вопросы госу-дарственного управления экономикой на уровне АЭФ. В минувшем году интересная дискуссия раз-вернулась на тему преодоления последствий кри-зиса. Успешная реструктуризация внешних долгов ряда казахстанских банков, стабилизация сектора недвижимости, обуздание безработицы, реализация государственной программы модернизации произ-водственного сектора страны и возвращение на тра-екторию экономического роста – вот только основ-ные итоги антикризисной программы правительства республики, завершающейся в этом году. При этом роль основного оператора программы сыграл Фонд национального благосостояния «Самрук-Казына», объединивший крупнейшие национальные компании и институты развития.

В этом году мы также рассчитываем на продук-тивную дискуссию. Фонд «Самрук-Казына» проведет специальный круглый стол «Модернизация квази- государственного сектора как условие развития эко-номического потенциала страны», в рамках которого предполагается обсудить стратегию посткризисно-го развития Казахстана с точки зрения повышения эффективности работы группы компаний «Самрук- Казына».

Президент Нурсултан Абишевич Назарбаев в качестве стратегической цели страны назвал си-стемную модернизацию экономики. В чем заключа-ется эта системная модернизация, помимо перехода от сырьевого вектора развития экономики к индус-триальному? Каковы эффективные стимулы к ней? Возможно ли достижение целей модернизации уси-лиями только государственного сектора? Какова при этом роль корпоративного сектора, общественных институтов? Мы бы хотели услышать разнообразие мнений по этим и другим вопросам на Астанинском экономическом форуме.

Аруана Акишева

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"Eurasian Economic Review": Mr. Kulibayev, National Welfare Fund "Samruk-Kazyna" plays a key role in the economy of the country. What are the goals and objectives the Fund sets for the near future?

Timur Kulibayev: There are many objectives. The most important of them were described recently by President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the enlarged meeting of the new government. He set the task of turning the companies of the Fund in the "national champions". In powerful players capable of innovating, ready to implement projects of any complexity in their industries and compete in regional and global markets. The second important task - to hold a "people's IPO» of several companies in order to attract Kazakhs to the stock market, enabling them to increase their incomes. Here we have already begun to work actively with the Government to develop concepts and mechanisms to bring the national companies to Kazakhstan's stock market. The development of innovations, as President said, is the basis for the modernization of Kazakhstan. And this task is our priority. Fund, as a major shareholder and common corporate center of national companies management, should play a key role. We started to develop a corporate strategy of innovation and technology - as in the whole group and for most large companies. There was created the Innovation Council of Found, and Scientific and technical advice in its subsidiaries. Key to the success we see in the introduction of modern management techniques of innovation, providing the complex realization of the entire process - from idea to finished product.

Special attention should be paid to certain sectoral programs. In particular, we are talking about the nuclear industry. In this industry we can take a leading position in the world, at the same time, now, after the Japanese event, there were outlined some risks related to the future of nuclear power. We need a flawless development strategy. Another trend is- geology, prospecting, in which Kazakhstan is far behind for two decades. And we have to quickly liquidate this gap.

If we talk about short-term tasks, this year we will complete the full implementation of the government anti-crisis program. Mostly this work is about our Real Estate Fund, it is necessary to finish construction of 16 residential units.

Internal tasks are also important for the Fund. I am referring to improvement of the management of subsidiaries. “Samruk-Kazyna” is not an economic structure; the fund does not interfere in operations of subsidiaries, can not and should not replace the expert staff of the companies. We manage assets.

This means that corporate governance principles must be placed at the forefront. Creating corporate documents and regulations, creating procedures for the development, adoption and implementation of policy

decisions, introducing precise evaluation criteria, we can achieve much greater efficiency of subsidiaries than if we deeply immersed in a particular economy of these or other projects.

"EER": You are the head of the Association "KAZENERGY" which includes major oil companies and energy sector. What are the main issues being solved by the Association today?

Timur Kulibayev: The pace of development of Kazakhstan's oil sector is much ahead of world average. Over 20 years of independence, our country increased its oil production almost 4 times, while the whole world less than one and half times. Kazakhstan becomes a new center of oil production and export of world level.

This became possible through the cooperation of state and foreign companies, best investment climate, promotion of strategic alliances of Kazakhstan and foreign investors. This process is actively supported by "KAZENERGY" Association, which joins together more than 50 companies from different countries acting in the territory of Kazakhstan.

Domestically the activities of the energy complex have a high social component. Companies in this sector are involved in solving the issues of supporting the domestic manufacturers and creation of new jobs, programs of professional education and qualification growth of the people of Kazakhstan, implement a variety of humanitarian projects. Combining the efforts of various companies, KAZENERGY forms an effective model of participation of corporate sector in a national life.

In my opinion, the Association may have a considerable scope to develop highest industry standards in Kazakhstan, appropriate or at least close to API standards (American Petroleum Institute), which are the benchmarks for oil industry. To this end, the Association may accumulate achievements of scientific research institutions, the experience of leading foreign companies working in Tengiz, Karachaganak, Kashagan. That practice should develop standards and the state then confirm. I'm sure that oilers can make this work as "excellent."

"EER": What can you say about the realization of the industrialization map, an important component of the state programme of forced industrial innovative development?

Timur Kulibayev: The Fond "Samruk-Kazyna" remains the largest operator of the State program of forced industrial-innovative development. 51% of total investments of GPFIIR or $ 22 billion accounted for 20 projects of the Fund. Last year, 13 of those projects had been fulfilled with the participation of our companies, and this year another 7 projects will begin.

Timur Kulibayev - Chairman of the Board of JSC "National Welfare Fund "Samruk-Kazyna", the President of the Association" KAZENERGY", Chairman of the Presidium of the “Atameken” Union

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4 objects of strategic importance are close to completing. Among them, the production of wagons on the basis “Taman” LLP with the capacity of 3 thousand cars per year in Ekibastuz, the opening of the labor movement on railway aections “Zhetygen – Korgas” and “Uzen - state border with Turkmenistan”, the construction of Moinak HEPS. Ongoing projects that we fulfill are represented almost in all priority sectors of economy and are the largest in terms of scale of attracted investment, as well as the potential multiplier effect. They contribute to economic diversification and aimed to increase the depth of processing of raw materials in existing and newly established enterprises, increase power generating capacity of existing stations and construction of new PS, development of transit potential of the country. These projects will allow to create more than 25 thousand jobs during the construction and about 9,000 permanent jobs as they are placed on production.

"EER": What main activities are carried out by "Atameken" Union for solving the problems of small and medium-sized businesses?

Timur Kulibayev: In recent years problems of small and medium-sized businesses were reduced to the humanization of criminal responsibility for economic crimes. This unnecessarily narrow view of things. “Soyuz Atameken" offers a more systematic and large-scale vision which can be expressed in the concept of " liberalization", which is understood primarily as the harmonization of economic relations.

This means that the liberalization, in addition to the criminal element, should include also issues of economic regulation, fiscal relations, investment climate, the formation of the business environment, etc.

In our view, there is need for serious review of the methods of legal regulation of business activity. We must build a legal system in the economy that would not restrain, on the contrary, spur business activity.

The country's leadership understands this and is taking concrete steps. Recently, President instructed to reduce the number of licenses and other permits in the area of the business by 30%. In turn, the Government prepared a legislative proposal for further humanization of criminal legislation and raising the level of protection of interests of private business. Of course, Atameken welcomes these decisions of the state and is ready to actively contribute to their early implementation. In the near future, the National Chamber of Commerce will conduct an audit of all existing legislation for compliance with the instructions of President on business support and economic development. According to its results new recommendations on reforming the legal framework will be forwarded to the government.

We learn the best international experience and offer by the example of developed countries to develop a business (commercial) code, largely focused on providing free business and protection from unwarranted prosecution.

Our mandate and our responsibility as the leading association of Kazakhstani business, is to create favorable conditions for private sector development, technological and productive breakthrough, stimulating investment,

growth of Kazakhstan’s economy to the level of developed countries. Only last year the experts of “Atameken” prepared more than 1500 hundred opinions on draft laws, Government resolutions, orders of ministers, technical regulations. We have sent over 1600 appeals in the interest of entrepreneurs to government agencies and ministries, courts and prosecutors at all levels, national companies and state institutions development. With our support more than one hundred companies have benefited from preferential treatment under the presidential program "Road Map of Business-2020" to get credit and export subsidies. Any state, for the formation of an effective economic policy, requires an independent counter-partner capable to look at the problem not through the eyes of the officer, but through the eyes of businessman. Our Atameken "can be such a partner, as it follows not only joint business interests, but also the interests of the country as a whole.

"EER": You are one of the key speakers at the IV Astana Economic Forum. What do you expect from this forum?

Timur Kulibayev: Astana Economic Forum has become a traditional venue for the discussion of global economic trends, analyze the current situation and ways for further development of the world economy as a whole and the economy of Kazakhstan. Here are some eminent scientists, The Nobel Laureates, as well as serious economists. We are not the first time discussing the issues of state management of the economy at the level of AEF. Last year there was an interesting discussion on overcoming the crisis. A successful debt restructuring a number of domestic banks, stabilizing the real estate sector, curbing the unemployment, the state program of modernization of the productive sector of the country and return to the trajectory of economic growth - that's only the main results of the anti-crisis program of the Government of the Republic, culminating in this year. The role of the primary operator of the program has played a National Welfare Fund "Samruk-Kazyna", which includes the major national companies and development institutions. This year we also look forward to a productive discussion. Fund "Samruk-Kazyna" will hold a special roundtable on" Modernization of the quasi-public sector as a condition for developing the economic potential of the country under which it is supposed to discuss strategy for post-crisis development of Kazakhstan from the standpoint of enhancing the effectiveness of the Group of Companies of "Samruk-Kazyna".

President Nursultan Nazarbayev sees the systemic modernization of economy as a strategic objective of the country. What does this system consist of in addition to the transition from the raw vector of the development of economy to the industrial one? What are effective incentives for it? Is it possible to achieve the modernization only by the efforts of public sector? What is the role of the corporate sector, public institutions? We would like to hear a variety of opinions on these and other issues in Astana Economic Forum.

Aruana Akisheva

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АНАЛИЗ ПРОБЛЕМ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО ОБОСНОВАНИЯ ТУРОВ ПО ТЕРРИТОРИИ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КАЗАХСТАН

Кайрат Закирьянов, Президент Казахской академии спорта и туризма (КазАСТ)Владимир Вуколов, Декан факультета туризма КазАСТ

Ключевыми терминами нашего исследования являются: «экономика», «тур», «обоснование», где главным является экономика.

В переводе с греческого «экономика» - это веде-ние хозяйства. А любой разумный человек будет ста-раться вести свое хозяйство так, чтобы жить долго и счастливо. Это полностью совпадает с глобальной целью туризма как социального явления, а именно – максимальное увеличение продолжительности жиз-ни человека и улучшения ее качества.

Туризм, как один из наиболее популярных совре-менных видов отдыха, является важной частью жиз-ни человека с его естественным желанием познания нового и хотя бы временного возвращения в природ-ную среду. Однако Казахстан находится на 93 месте в рейтинге Всемирного экономического форума «Пу-тешествия и туризм: конкурентоспособность-2011». Среди стран СНГ в рейтинге из 139 государств мира лидирует Россия (59 место), затем следуют Грузия (73), Азербайджан (83), Украина (85), Армения (90), Казахстан (93), Молдавия (99), Киргизия (107), Тад-жикистан (118). В десятку лидеров представленно-го в докладе списка входят Швейцария, Германия, Франция, Австрия, Швеция, Соединенные Штаты Америки, Великобритания, Испания, Канада и Син-гапур.

Индекс каждой страны составляется путем срав-нения ряда условий, в том числе законодательства, устойчивости и защиты окружающей среды, защиты здоровья и соблюдения норм гигиены, приоритетов путешествия и туризма, инфраструктуры авиацион-ного и наземного транспорта, цен, природы, челове-ческих и культурных богатств. В докладе отмечается, что после трудного периода глобального экономиче-ского кризиса сфера туризма медленно восстанавли-вается: в 2010 году в сфере зафиксирован 5-6% рост [1].

В 2006 году нами проводился системный анализ нескольких рейтингов конкурентоспособности казах-станского туризма. Как первичная информация для анализа использовался рейтинг Давосского эконо-мического форума 2006 года, где Казахстан занял по качеству жизни населения 79 место, а по обще-му рейтингу конкурентоспособности 56 место из 161 страны мира [2]. Снижение рейтинга туристской от-расли РК означает, что экономическое обоснование отдельных туров и системных туристских программ осуществляется некорректно.

Целью проведенного нами исследования явля-ется анализ проблем экономического обоснования туров по территории Казахстана для граждан рес-публики и иностранных туристов. Для оптимального экономического обоснования туристских программ и отдельных туров необходимо: 1) выявить и решить максимальное количество и объем социально-эконо-мических задач; 2) выявить необходимые затраты на производство и реализацию тура (туристской прог-раммы) потребителю; 3) выявить и создать условия, при соблюдении которых после реализации тура, решалось бы максимальное количество социально -экономических задач, максимально сокращались затраты на производство и реализацию тура, макси-мально увеличивалась прибыль от его реализации.

В «Концепции развития туризма Республики Казахстан» приоритетными названы въездной и внутренний туризм. Из всего объема туристско-рек-

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реационных ресурсов Казахстана природные ре-сурсы составляют основную часть. В свою очередь, большую часть природных туристско-рекреационных ресурсов (ТРР) можно использовать в экономичес-ких целях только через культивирование активных туристских путешествий. Однако казахстанские тур-фирмы слабо используют такие путешествия в своей работе из-за недостатка интеллектуального и кадро-вого обеспечения данного направления в туризме.

Отечественные туроператоры, культивирующие продажу на внутреннем и международном рынке ту-ров с использованием природных казахстанских ту-ристских ресурсов, выполняют социально-экономи-ческие задачи, имеющие не только государственное, но и глобальное значение. Но организация таких ту-ров, в том числе экономическое обоснование, имеет сложную технологию. Они требуют отличного знания отечественных ТРР, высокопрофессиональных спе-циалистов и современной материально-технической базы.

Материально-финансовые затраты, усилия пер-сонала и ответственность за качество турпродукта, безопасность клиентов у операторов значительно выше, чем у агентов. Однако, никаких существенных преференций от государства туроператоры не имеют, платят практически одинаковые с турагентами нало-ги, оплачивают высокие сборы при входе туристских групп в национальные природные парки, платят за получение отдельной операторской лицензии, реша-ют массу проблем с пограничными властями.

Поэтому неудивительно, что уже много лет пос-ле получения Казахстаном суверенитета, большин-ство предпринимателей в сфере отечественного ту-ризма являются агентами. А это значит, что выездной туризм продолжает превалировать над внутренним и въездным туризмом, огромные финансовые средст-ва утекают за рубеж, укрепляется экономика других государств и именно там, а не в Казахстане создают-ся новые рабочие места.

Рассматривая проблемы экономического обос-нования туров и системных программ необходимо опираться на два методологических постулата: а) глобальной целью туризма как социального явления является увеличение продолжительности и улуч-шение качества жизни человека; б) экономическую эффективность туризма некорректно рассматривать вне ее связи с духовно-нравственной, культурно- познавательной, профилактической и эргономичес-кой эффективностью. Только в этом варианте эконо-мических обоснований конкретных туров возможно достичь глобальной цели туризма.

При экономическом обосновании туров по тер-ритории Республики Казахстан для отечественных и иностранных туристов целесообразно иметь одина-ковые (с конкурентами на международном туристс-ком рынке) цены на въездные визы, обязательные сборы за посещение туристами территории нацио-нальных природных парков и т.п. Если государство не будет вкладывать значительные инвестиции в соз-дание инфраструктуры, автомобильный транспорт высокой проходимости, большую и малую авиацию (особенно в вертолеты, способные безопасно летать в горной местности) разработка нашими оператора-ми любых, самых привлекательных туров делает их заведомо неконкурентоспособными на международ-ном туристском рынке.

Проведенное исследование позволяет сделать следующие предложения:

1) существенно снизить налоговую нагрузку на отечественных туроператоров, культивирующих ак-тивные виды туризма по территории Казахстана для внутреннего и въездного туризма;

2) заключить межправительственные соглаше-ния с правительствами сопредельных с Казахстаном государств (прежде всего по упрощению туристских формальностей и транзитных виз) для организации трансграничных путешествий отечественных и ино-странных туристов. В первую очередь, это касается путешествий по Северному, Западному и Централь-ному Тянь-Шаню, Алтаю, Джунгарии и всей протя-женности Великого Шелкового Пути;

3) организовать финансовую поддержку феде-раций спортивного туризма для проведения туристс-ко-исследовательских экспедиций в редко посеща-емые, но вызывающие интерес у туристов районы РК; республиканских сборов средней и высшей ту-ристской подготовки, создание и подготовку отрядов общественной туристско-спасательной службы;

4) на базе Казахской академии спорта и туризма восстановить функционирование Республиканской школы инструкторов спортивного туризма, использо-вав отечественный опыт такой работы 70-80-х годов ХХ века. Поставить целью работы школы подготовку в каникулярное время (июль-август ежегодно) подго-товку не менее 100 инструкторов горного, водного и велосипедного туризма. Курсантами школы из всех областей Казахстана направлять преимущественно студентов вузов и колледжей, обучающихся по спе-циальности «Туризм» и имеющих второй разряд по спортивному туризму.

Литература:

1. Казахстан на 93 месте в рейтинге лучших для путешествия стран // http://news.mail.ru/inworld/kazakhstan/economics.

2. Вуколов В.Н. Вступление в ВТО и перспективы развития индустрии туризма Республики Казахстан // Теория и методика физической культуры. – Алматы, 2007. - № 1(18). – С. 7-12.

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THE ANAlYSIS OF ECONOMIC RATIONAlE PROBlEMS OF THE TOURS AROUND THE TERRITORY OF THE REPUBlIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

Kairat Zakiryanov, President of Kazakh Academy of Sport and Tourism Vladimir Vukolov, Dean of Tourism Faculty of Kazakh Academy of Sport and Tourism

The key terms of our study are as follows: “economy”, “tour”, “justification”, where the principal is the economy.

Translated from the Greek word “economy” - farming. Any reasonable person will try to keep their farms to live happily ever after. This fully coincides with the global target of tourism as a social phenomenon - namely, the maximum increase of longevity and improves its quality.

Tourism is one of the most popular modern forms of recreation is an important part of human life with its natural desire to learn new and at least a temporary return to the natural environment. However, Kazakhstan is on 93rd place in the World Economic Forum’s “Travel and Tourism: Competitiveness-2011”. Among CIS countries in the ranking of 139 countries in the world, the leading is Russia (59 seats), followed by Georgia (73), Azerbaijan (83), Ukraine (85), Armenia (90), Kazakhstan (93), Moldova (99), Kyrgyzstan (107), Tajikistan (118). In the top ten list being represented in the report Switzerland, Germany, France, Austria, Sweden, the United States, Britain, Spain, Canada and Singapore are included.

The index of each country is made by comparing the number of conditions, including legislation, sustainability and environmental protection, health and hygiene, prioritization travel and tourism, infrastructure, aviation and land transport, prices, natural, human and cultural resources. The report notes that after a difficult period of global economic crisis, tourism industry is slowly recovering: in 2010 in the area recorded 5.6% growth [1].

In 2006, we conducted a systematic analysis of several ratings of Kazakhstan’s tourism competitiveness. As the primary information used for the analysis of rating the Davos Economic Forum 2006 where Kazakhstan has taken the 79th place on the quality of life, and the overall competitiveness ranking is 56th out of 161 countries in the world [2]. The downgrade of the tourism industry in Kazakhstan means that the economic justification of individual tours and tourist programs are performed correctly.

The purpose of this study is the analysis of the problems of economic justification tours in Kazakhstan for citizens of the republic and foreign tourists. For optimum economic feasibility of tourist programs and individual tours to: 1) identify and solve the maximum number and scope of the socio-economic problems, and 2) to identify the necessary costs of production and sale of the tour (the tourist program) to the consumer,

and 3) identify and establish the conditions under which, after implementation of the tour, we solved would be the maximum number of socio-economic problems, minimize costs of production and sale of the tour, maximize profits from its sale.

In the “Concept of Tourism of the Republic of Kazakhstan” priorities are identified inbound and domestic tourism. From the total tourist and recreational resources of Kazakhstan’s natural resources make up the bulk. In turn, most of the natural tourist and recreational resources (TPP) can be used for economic purposes only through the active cultivation of tourist travel. However, Kazakhstan travel agency poorly used such travel in their work because of lack of intellectual and human resources support this trend in tourism.

Domestic tour operators, cultivating sales in the domestic and international market tours with natural tourist resources of Kazakhstan, fulfill socio-economic problems that have not only government but also of global importance. But the organization of tours, including feasibility study, has a complex technology. They require an excellent knowledge of domestic TPP, highly qualified specialists and modern logistics.

Material and financial costs, personnel efforts and responsibility for the quality of tourist products, clients safety of the operators is higher than that of agents. However, no significant preference of the state tour operators do not have pay nearly the same with travel agents taxes, pay high fees at the entrance to tourist groups in the national parks, pay for getting a separate operator’s license, solve many problems with the border authorities.

Therefore, it is not surprising that for many years after Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, the majority of entrepreneurs in the field of domestic tourism is an agent. This means that outbound tourism continues to prevail over the domestic and inbound tourism, huge funds running out abroad, strengthen the economy of other states and it was there, not in Kazakhstan, create new jobs.

Considering the problem of feasibility study tours and system software must be based on two methodological postulates: a) the global goal of tourism as a social phenomenon is to increase the duration and quality of human life, and b) the economic efficiency of tourism properly be considered outside its relation with the spiritual, moral and cultural-cognitive preventive

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and ergonomic efficiency. Only in this version of the economic feasibility of specific tours can reach a global tourist destination.

When economic justification tours in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the domestic and foreign tourists is advisable to have the same (with competitors in the international tourist market) price for an entry visa, required fees for tourists visiting the territory of the national parks, etc. If the state will not invest a significant investment in infrastructure, motor vehicles with high cross, large and small aircraft (especially helicopters, are capable of safely flying in mountainous terrain) develop all our operators, the most attractive tour deliberately makes them uncompetitive in the international tourist market.

This study allows us to make the following suggestions:

1) substantially reduce the tax burden on domestic tour operators, cultivating active forms of tourism on the territory of Kazakhstan for the domestic and inbound tourism;

2) enter into intergovernmental agreements with the governments of neighboring states to Kazakstan

(primarily to simplify the formalities of tourist and transit visas) to organize cross-border travel domestic and foreign tourists. First and foremost, it concerns the travels of the Northern, Western and Central Tien Shan, Altai, Dzungaria and the entire length of the Silk Road;

3) to organize financial support to the federations of sports tourism for tourism and research expeditions in the rarely visited, but are interested in the tourist areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan; Republican charges of middle and high tourism training, development and preparation of units of social tourism and rescue services;

4) on the basis of the Kazakh Academy of Sport and Tourism to restore the functioning of the Republican school of trainers of sports tourism, using the domestic experience of such work 70-80 of XX century. Put to work preparing the school during vacation time (July-August each year) training more than 100 instructors of mountain, water and cycling. Students of the school from all regions of Kazakhstan directed mainly university students and college students majoring in Tourism “and having the second digit in sport tourism.

References:

1. Kazakhstan on 93rd place in the ranking of best countries to travel// http://news.mail.ru/inworld/kazakhstan/economics.

2. Vukolov V.N. Entry into the WTO and perspectives of tourism industry development of the Republic of Kazakhstan// Theory and methodology of physical education. – Almaty, 2007. - № 1(18). – С. 7-12.

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ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ

PRICE OUTlOOK AND VOlATIlITY IN GlOBAl GRAIN MARKETS: POlICIES AND OTHER FACTORS

William H. MeyersHoward Cowden Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics and Interim Director, Division of Applied Social Sciences University of Missouri

In the past few years, we have experienced a transition from the decades-long period of falling real prices of grains, and food more generally, to a new market environment in which commodity and food prices are, higher, more volatile and more highly influenced by petroleum prices. This market behavior and the conditions surrounding it are likely to continue, and the prospects of returning to the declining prices of the previous decades are less likely.

The food and financial crises of 2008 and 2009 led to social problems and unrest in scores of countries, and have added millions of people to the number of hungry and undernourished in the world while reversing progress towards the Millennium Development Goals hunger target. FAO estimated that the economic crisis added far more people to the number of undernourished than did the food crisis of 2008. The economic crisis that hit hardest in 2009 severely depressed economic growth and the purchasing power of consumers; and the recovery from this recession has been very slow in many countries. Now in 2011 food prices have risen again and could remain high for a longer period than was the case in 2008. The economic shocks and the added impact of another food price surge in 2010 and 2011 are more severe for low-income populations, especially in food-deficit areas, and once again raise serious food security issues.

One source of promise in the coming years is the underutilized potential of the grain growing areas of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (KRU), which have increased their exports substantially in recent years. Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine once accounted for 13 percent of global grain imports (from 1988 to 1990), but these three countries accounted for more than 15 percent of global grain exports from 2007 to 2009 and as high as 19 percent in 2008. This hopeful sign is offset by the policy reactions of this region, which have sometimes restricted exports just when global markets need them most. Thus there is both promise and concern about the future role of this region as a reliable supplier in the face growing world demand for food.

Recent FAPRI projections of global market prospects from 2010/11 to 2020/21 indicate that price increases this year may persist longer than the price increases we experienced in crop year 2007/08. It is projected that for the next decade prices are likely to remain well above

levels in the first half of this decade. We are very likely in a new world of significantly higher prices and greater price volatility over the next decade. It is not solely about biofuel and energy market impacts on food and agricultural markets, but also about the continuing growth in incomes and dietary changes in fast growing economies.

FAPRI projecti-ons for grains and oilseeds for the next decade will be presented along with a discussion of major influential factors and uncertainties that are likely to impact markets, trade and prices. Factors that influence demand and supply growth and price volatility will be discussed, including the role of policy reactions that increase price volatility.

Some countries have reacted to protect their domestic markets by limiting or banning exports or by reducing import barriers. Such actions exacerbate rather than moderate food price volatility and cause increased food insecurity in other countries. Such policies, if effective, also imply a tax to producers which lowers the incentive to respond to the international price increases and to increase food production. The likely long-run consequences of export restrictions are to reduce agricultural profits and production of farmers in the exporting country, and likewise efforts to lower domestic prices in importing countries, reduce profits and production of farmers in the importing country. Thus such market interventions increase uncertainty and volatility and undermine the role of trade in mitigating food crises.

The KRU region is one that has significant potential to increase food production, and its role in global markets and in meeting food security needs would be enhanced if there were increased public and private agricultural investment as well as transparency and predictability in policy responses in times of price volatility.

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ИННОВАЦИОННЫЙ КОНГРЕСС:КАЗАХСТАН НА ПЕРЕКРЕСТКЕ ВОСТОКА И ЗАПАДА

Айдын КульсеитовПредседатель Правления АО «Национальный инновационный фонд»Тимур ШалабаевЭксперт Департамента внешних связей АО «Национальный инновационный фонд»

Казахстан исторически раскинул свои просто-ры на стыке двух разных геополитических сторон – Востока и Запада. Такое географическое положение предоставляло большие возможности в торговле и культуре (достаточно вспомнить Великий Шелковый путь) в экономике и политике (современный Казах-стан выступает в роли интегратора в ЕврАзЭС, ШОС, ОДКБ), не исключением является и совершенно новая область международного сотрудничества – инновации и новые технологии.

Инновационный конгресс является ключевым ежегодным мероприятием по инновационному нап-равлению и одним из центральных в рамках Аста-нинского экономического форума, в котором прини-мают участие известные политики, государственные деятели, экономисты. Организаторами конгресса яв-ляется Министерство индустрии и новых технологий Республики Казахстан, АО «Национальный иннова-ционный фонд», Ассоциация «Евразийский экономи-ческий клуб ученых».

Впервые конгресс состоялся в рамках работы III Астанинского экономического форума, 1-2 июля 2010 г. на тему: «Модель результативной и эффек-тивно-функционирующей национальной инноваци-онной системы – основа экономического подъема в посткризисный период». В прошлом году конгресс собрал ведущих экспертов в области инноваций из 12 стран мира - США, Великобритании, Франции, Германии, Финляндии, Израиля, Польши, Швейца-рии, России, Украины, Казахстана и Южной Кореи. В рамках Инновационного конгресса были обсужде-ны наиболее актуальные проблемы инновационного развития стран с продвинутой инновационной сис-темой, таких как роль ключевых организаций НИС в реализации инновационной политики государства, стимулирование инновационного малого и среднего бизнеса, международная кооперация и трансферт технологий, образование, наука и исследования в области инноваций. Среди его гостей были Даниель Гершковиц - Министр науки и технологий Государства Израиль, Ирина Крючкова - Вице-министр экономики Украины, Румен Добрински - Руководитель Депар-тамента экономического сотрудничества и интегра-ции Европейской экономической комиссии ООН, Д-р Чарльз Весснер - Академик Национальной академии наук США, Директор программы по Технологиям, Инновациям и Предпринимательству, Мишель Вуа-

зен - Глава Парламентской делегации ОБСЕ в На-циональной ассамблее Франции, Д-р Пека Сутела - Советник Банка Финляндии, профессор школы эко-номики университета Аальто, Партнер Международ-ного центра Мира Карнеги, Профессор Сьюзан Рос-селет - Заместитель директора Всемирного Центра по Конкурентоспособности и многие другие.

Инновационный конгресс стал интегратором и одним из основных двигателей международного сот- рудничества институтов инновационного развития нашей страны. По результатам его работы было при-нято решение о формировании Международного инновационного клуба, который должен стать пулом ведущих международных экспертов по инновациям и технологиям для консультирования институтов инно-вационного развития Казахстана.

Так, Д-р Питер Хейдебрек, один из ключевых спикеров Инновационного конгресса по инноваци-онной активности бизнеса, основатель и управляю-щий директор Inno group, известной международной

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компании по стратегическому консалтингу с офисами в Германии, Франции, Швеции, Чехии, России, и его коллеги проведут семинары и консультации в реги-онах Казахстана по созданию сети офисов коммер- циализации технологий. Данный проект является пилотным в нашей стране и призван создать необ-ходимую инфраструктуру и методологию для прод-вижения отечественных инновационных разработок и технологий на внутренний и внешний рынок. Дос- таточно привести в пример сотрудничество с Корей-ским институтом научной и технологической политики (КИСТЕП) – государственным институтом Республи-ки Корея, занимающийся оценкой и планированием научно-технологической политики.

В рамках реализации проекта проведения техно-логического прогнозирования и планирования (фор-сайт) в Республике Казахстан 27 августа 2010 года был заключен Договор между АО «Национальный инновационный фонд» и компанией KISTEP (Корея), в соответствии с которым КИСТЕП будет проводить обучение современным методологиям проведения технологического прогнозирования и планирования путем проведения тренингов, а также предоставле-ния обучающих семинаров, будет разработан план проведения форсайтных исследований на 2010-2012 гг. и предоставлена постоянная экспертная поддерж-ка по технологическому прогнозированию в Респуб-лике Казахстан.

Можно также отметить плодотворное сотруд-ничество с Президентом Европейской компании стратегического консалтинга CEIS г-ном Оливье Дарразоном, который лично курирует казахстанско-французские инновационные проекты. К слову ска-зать, в 2010 в рамках конгресса состоялось открытие Казахстанско-французского центра трансферта тех-нологий, который призван стать входными воротами для реализации совместных проектов с французски-ми партнерами. Примером может послужить проект KAZ PV, который подразумевает создание промыш-ленной линии полностью интегрированной для про-изводства возобновляемой энергетики, а именно фотовольтаических панелей совместно с ведущими институтами Франции – Национальным институтом солнечной энергии (INES) и Комиссариатом атомной энергии и альтернативной энергетики (CEA).

Аналогичный центр трансферта технологий пла-нируется создать совместно с Корейским фондом ин-новационного кластера из Даедеок Иннополиса – куз-ницы инноваций Южной Кореи, которую в этом году на конгрессе будут представлять целых три институ-та: Корейский институт научной и технологической оценки и планирования (KISTEP), Институт научной и технологической политики (STEPI), Корейский фонд инновационного кластера (KICF).

В этом году в рамках Астанинского экономиче-ского форума Инновационный конгресс пройдет на тему: «Процессы интеграции национальных инно-вационных систем как ответ на глобальные вызо-вы». Как известно, преодоление технологического

разрыва между индустриально-развитыми и разви-вающимися странами может решаться путем объе-динения отдельных национальных инновационных систем в региональные структуры. Примером служат «supranational innovation systems», то есть наднаци-ональные интеграционные формы, способствующие повышению конкурентоспособности своих членов. Работа Конгресса в этом году будет направлена на освещение передового международного опыта ре-гиональной интеграции, нацеленной на форсиро-ванное индустриально-инновационное развитие в условиях глобальных экономических вызовов. Прог-рамма Инновационного Конгресса включает анализ интегрированных инновационных систем, освещение опыта отдельных институтов и компаний в рамках ин-новационной интеграции, а также проблемы и перс-пективы развития таких наднациональных систем.

Модератором VI Инновационного конгресса выс- тупит ученый с мировым именем, профессор Стэн-фордского университета, Лауреат Нобелевской пре-мии по химии, со-председатель научно-технического совета Сколково профессор Роджер Корнберг. По-четными гостями конгресса являются Заместитель Премьер-министра – Министр индустрии и новых технологий Республики Казахстан Асет Исекешев, вице-президент Научного и Технологического Иссле-довательского Совета Турции (ТУБИТАК) профессор Омер Джебеджи, Председатель Совета директоров Центра высоких технологий ЕврАзЭС, генерал армии, Герой России, профессор Александр Старовойтов, Председатель попечительского Cовета Fraunhofer IFF профессор Бургхард Шиль и многие другие.

Конгресс соберет 300 международных и казах-станских экспертов, чиновников и представителей национальных компаний, ключевых участников на-циональной инновационной системы: технопарков, бизнес-инкубаторов и непосредственно бизнес- структур в области развития и внедрения иннова- ционных технологий, а также непосредственно раз-работчиков государственной политики по иннова- ционному межгосударственному сотрудничеству.

Таким образом, активная работа организаторов конгресса и, прежде всего, АО «Национальный инно-вационный фонд» позволяет не только наращивать связи и изучать лучший зарубежный опыт по инно-вациям, но и, что называется, держать руку на пуль-се самых последних направлений технологическо-го развития и, что еще более важно, участвовать в процессах международного инновационного сотруд-ничества. В этом смысле Казахстан открыт как для Запада, так и для Востока и имеет все шансы стать своеобразным интегратором самых лучших иннова-ционных и технологических достижений двух цивили- заций, особенно принимая во внимание, к приме-ру, инициативы Евразийского экономического сооб- щества создать Евразийский инновационный союз, который объединит усилия стран СНГ в области ин-новаций.

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KAZAKHSTAN AT THE CROSSROADS OF EAST AND WEST

By Aidyn Kulseitov Chairman of the Board of JSC «National Innovative Fund» Timur Shalabayev Expert of the External Relations Department of JSC “National Innovation Fund

Kazakhstan has historically scattered its open spaces at the junction of two different geo-political parties - East and West. This geographical position provides great opportunities for the trade and culture (it is enough to remember the Great Silk Road) in economics and politics (modern Kazakhstan acts as an integrator in the EurAsEC, SCO, CSTO), it is not ruled out, and absolutely new area of the international cooperation - innovations and new technologies.

The Innovative Congress is an annual key event for the innovative direction and a central part in Astana Economic Forum, which is attended by prominent politicians, statesmen and economists. The organizers of the congress are the Ministry of Industry and new technology of the Republic of Kazakhstan, JSC «National Innovative Fund», and The Association “Eurasian economic club of scientists”.

For the first time the congress was held in the framework of the III Astana Economic Forum, 1-2 July 2010 on the theme: “The model of effective and efficiently-functioning national innovative system - the basis of economic recovery in post-crisis period.” Last year, The Congress gathered leading experts in the innovation sphere from 12 countries - the U.S.A, Great Britain, France, Germany, Finland, Israel, Poland, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and South Korea. There were discussed the urgent problems of innovative development of the countries with an advanced innovative systems, such as the role of key institutions in the NIS in the implementation of innovative policy, incentive of innovative small and medium businesses, international cooperation and technology transfer, education, science and research in the sphere of innovation . Among his guests were Daniel Gershkovits – The Minister of Science and Technology of the State of Israel, Irina Kryuchkova – The Vice-Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Rumen Dobrinsky – The Head of Department for Economic Co-operation and integration of the European Economic Commission, Dr. Charles Wessner - Academician of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, Director program on technology, innovation and enterprise, Michel Voisin - The head of the OSCE Parliamentary Delegation in the National Assembly of France, Dr. Pekka Sutela - Advisor to the Bank of Finland, Professor of School of Economics, University of Aalto, Partner of the International Peace Centre of Carnegie, Professor Suzanne Rosselet - Deputy Director of the Center of the World Competitiveness and many others.

The Innovative Congress has become an integrator and one of the main engines of international cooperation institutions of innovative development of our country. According to the results of his work was decided to form the International Innovation Club, which should be a pool of leading international experts on innovation and technology for advising institutions of innovative development of Kazakhstan.

For example, Dr. Peter Heydebrek, one of the key speakers of the Innovation Congress on innovation activities of business, the founder and managing director of Inno group, well-known international companies in strategic consulting, with offices in Germany, France, Sweden, Czech Republic, Russia, and his colleagues will conduct workshops and consultation in the regions of Kazakhstan to establish a network of offices of technology commercialization. This project is a pilot project in our country and aims to create the necessary infrastructure and methodology to promote local innovation and technology to domestic and foreign markets. It is enough to cite an example of cooperation with the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Policy (KISTEP) - State Institute of the Republic of Korea, advertising psychology and planning of the science and technology policy.

Treaty was concluded between JSC National Innovation Fund “and the company KISTEP (Korea) within the project of technological forecasting and planning (foresight) in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 27 August, 2010, where KISTEP will conduct training in modern methodologies for technology foresight and planning through training and provision of training seminars, will develop a plan for foresight research for 2010-2012 and will given the constant expert support on technology of foresight in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

You can also note the fruitful cooperation with the President of the European companies of the strategic consulting CEIS, Mr. Olivier Darrazonom, who personally oversees the Kazakh-French innovative projects. By the way, there were was opened Kazakh-French Technology Transfer Centre in 2010, which aims to become the gateway for the implementation of joint projects with French partners. An example is a project KAZ PV, which involves the creation of a fully integrated line of the industrial production of renewable energy, namely photovoltaic panels in conjunction with leading institutes of France – by National Institute for Solar Energy (INES) and the Commissariat for Atomic Energy and Alternative Energy (CEA).

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The similar center of transfer technologies is planned to create together with the Korean Found of Innovative cluster of Daedeok Innopolis – the forge of innovation in South Korea, which will be presented on the congress by three institutes: Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), Institute for Scientific and Technological Policy (STEPI), Korean Foundation for Innovation Cluster (KICF).

This year’s Astana Economic Forum Innovation Congress will be held on the topic: “The processes of integration of national systems of innovation as a response to global challenges.” As you know, overcoming of the technological gap between industrialized and developing countries can be solved by combining the individual national systems of innovation in regional structures. Examples are «supranational innovation systems», that is, supranational integration forms that improve the competitiveness of its members. This year the Congress will focus on coverage of international best practices of the regional integration, aimed on the accelerated industrial and innovative development in the context of global economic challenges. The Innovative Program of the Congress includes analysis of the integrated innovation systems, lighting the experience of individual institutions and companies in the innovative integration, as well as problems and prospects of development of such supra-national systems.

The Moderator of the VI Innovation Congress will be a renowned scholar, professor at Stanford University, The Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, co-chairman of the Scientific and Technical Skolkovo Council, Professor Roger Kornberg. Guest of honour of the congress are the

Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Industry and Trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan Asset Issekeshev, vice president of the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), Prof. Omer Cebeci, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Center of High Technologies EurAsEC General of the Army, Hero of Russia, Professor Alexander Starovoitov, Chairman of the Advisory council Fraunhofer IFF Professor Burghard Shil and many others.

The Congress will bring together 300 international and Kazakh experts, officials and representatives of national companies, key players in the national innovation system are: industrial parks, business incubators and business structures in the development and introduction of innovative technologies sphere, as well as directly to government policy on innovative cross-border cooperation.

Thus, the active work of the organizers of the Congress and, above all, JSC “National Innovation Fund” allows us not only to increase communication and to study the best international experience in innovation, but as they say, to keep abreast of the latest trends of technological development and, more importantly, participate in international innovation cooperation. In this sense, Kazakhstan is open to the West and the East, and has all chances to become a sort of integrator of the best innovations and technological achievements of the two civilizations, especially taking into account, for example, an initiative of the Eurasian Economic Community to create the Eurasian innovative alliance that will unite the efforts of countries CIS in the field of innovation.

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Introductory note: This article is designed primarily as a contribution to

the ongoing discussion process of policy and business practitioners on how to support SMEs in boosting economic growth. Consequently, the author bases his argumentation on his personal experience as a serial entrepreneur, as a seed capitalist, and as a policy adviser. However, the work also takes into account the author’s research work as a professor in innovation management and entrepreneurship at the University of Linkoping (Sweden) and Orebro (Sweden).

SMEs: drivers of economic growthEconomic growth generates the necessary

resources and financial means to finance an improved quality of life (e.g. in terms of environmental conditions, cultural opportunities, health care, and care for the elderly) which together with investments into e.g. Education and Higher Education constitutes the basis for a nation’s sustainable competitiveness.

Countries which cannot or chose not to base their competitiveness on mainly natural resources and/or low wages are dependent on their capability to innovate. It is the mandate of policy to encourage and support business in its efforts to achieve innovation-based growth based on a superior internal competence base as well as access to a professional innovation support infrastructure which provides complementary knowledge and resources.

At national level, economic growth can stem from three complementary sources:

1. Attracting (innovative) business from outside the system: Inward investment activities are an integral part of nations’ and regions’ competitive efforts. However, re-location does typically not imply a total net growth effect, but is just a re-distribution of growth/decline. Consequently, e.g. the European Union has been increasingly insistent that public subsidies should not be used to attract business from within the larger system (EU) to a respective part of it (but obviously to attract business from outside the EU).

2. Growth in large (mature) companies: Large multinational companies form an important backbone of most economies. This article does not want to diminish their crucial role for a nation’s sustainable competitiveness. However, the average annual growth in EU-27 (between 2002 and 2008) in terms of

employment by large companies was only 0.8%1. This can be explained by the fact that large companies tend to grow rather by mergers and acquisitions than that they grow organically. Consequently, the total number of jobs with large companies remains rather stable.

3. Small and medium-sized enterprises in general and new knowledge-based firms in particular are the key drivers of growth in many economies. Between 2002 and 2008, the number of jobs in SMEs grew annually by 1.9 % within the European Union (which is more than double the rate of large enterprises)2. This is illustrated for the EU-15 countries in the following figure taken from the Annual report on European Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises 2009”, 2010, p 31.

1 Directorate General of Enterprise and Industry, “European SMEs under pressure. Annual report on European Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises 2009”, 2010, p 6.2 Directorate General of Enterprise and Industry, “European SMEs under pressure. Annual report on European Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises 2009”, 2010, p 6.

CHARACTERISTICS OF SME-FRIENDlY INNOVATION SYSTEMS

By Peter HeydebreckManaging Director, Inno AG, Germany

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Figure 1Development of number of persons employed,

by size class, EU-15 and EU-12, 2002-2008 (index: 2002=100$ 2007, 2008 estimates)

Although SMEs are increasingly looked at and support schemes are designed to help them, their full potential has not been exploited yet. SMEs are often owner-led and invest strategically: one generation intends to hand over the company to the next. Sustainable competitiveness is prioritised over short-term profits. Thus, long-term investments into knowledge and competence are made, although it is difficult to activate them in the balance sheet in many countries. Furthermore, independent SMEs tend to be rooted in a specific region much stronger than a daughter company of a foreign multinational.

SMEs: discriminated against despite all lip service

Typically, everybody talks positively about SMEs. However they are often treated rather as if they were a cute and endangered species and not a key driver of economic growth. In many EU countries there is a tendency of systematically discriminating against them.

Major areas of not treating SMEs favourably include e.g. the provision of competences and resources and serving a revenue function.

• Provision of competence and resourcesSMEs base their competitiveness on innovation

success as much as large enterprises do. Like large enterprises, they are in need of strengthening their

internal competence base by recruiting highly qualified staff. However, tax-financed Higher Education Institutes privilege large enterprises in terms of both education and mediation of job candidates.

(1) HEIs train students primarily in a way to optimise employability with large enterprises (e.g. specialists) and much less with the needs of SMEs in minds (more holistic generalists); even less do they train entrepreneurs. For instance, natural scientists hardly ever receive any training in business-related matters.

(2) Also, HEI staff (career offices and individual professors) maintains relationships primarily with large enterprises as they assume that SMEs cause high transaction costs (due to few job mediations per contact).

SMEs also run the risk of being disadvantaged with respect to access to external competence. Research institutes and Universities do not prioritise them as privileged partners and prefer big names in their business clubs, sponsor associations and client circles.

In terms of financial support, large companies have better cards again. They are helped out in case they run the risk of becoming bankrupt (as many jobs are at stake at once and the large company has supposed system relevance). Regular support schemes often demand for administrative efforts which frighten SMEs and thus make them under-represented in many schemes.

• Revenue functionPublic procurement favours large enterprises in

several ways:- Typically, large lots are procured in order to

economise on transaction costs which means that SMEs either cannot deliver or face serious dependency risks when focussing on one big client.

- Incentive frameworks of public procurement officers typically do not honour outperforming procurement but punish “foreseeable” mistakes. As buying from small enterprises is often seen as more risk-filled than buying from a large multinational, public procurement goes for the big names. Only recently, innovation procurement and green procurement become more mainstream which favours SMEs.

- Public promotion of domestic companies (e.g. by taking them abroad on contract-winning political journeys) favours big companies.

Furthermore, all companies suffer from inadequate system conditions. However, particularly SMEs benefit from policies aimed at overcoming fragmentation.

SMEs: beneficiary of a holistic innovation system

A professional SME-friendly innovation system is characterized amongst other by (1) intra-system transparency, (2) inter-connectivity with other systems, (3) provision of need-oriented growth supporting services, and (4) explicit dedication to serve SMEs. Also, such a system should be carefully further developed and preferably neither be experimented with nor be changed overnight.

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In the following, the author briefly discusses these four success determinants.

(1) Intra-system transparencyCompanies in general and SMEs in particular do not

know who offers which services and resources at which conditions. SMEs hold very different types of challenges they would like to master drawing upon external expertise and resources: From which HEI can I get a critical mass of excellent job candidates? Which organisation can help me solve a production problem? Which institution would provide me with friendly venture capital?

There is a multitude of options to fight fragmentation and intransparency. Many of them have been successfully piloted or even implemented at large scale within EU-27. Some of the lessons learned include:

- Establishing and running user-friendly information platforms. Such platforms can be focused on particular regions (or even cities), and/or on specific technologies/fields of application, and/or on specific types of service/resource offers and requests. Key success determinants of all such platforms are:

- Have a strategic view on the platform. Have a business plan for a minimum of five years.

- It takes both a professional internet platform and a network of human beings/institutions to run such platforms.

- It is decisive to ensure critical mass of info from the start as well as regular updating of info.

- The platform has to be demand driven.The example of the EU has shown that such

platforms are particularly relevant in overcoming national borders. Typically, such platforms have representatives in car travel distance from all target group users. With respect to Kazakhstan, a good option would be to install such a platform at EURASEC level and link hand-picked EU partners to it.

- Harmonizing framework conditions in order to decrease administrative and bureaucratic burdens. For instance, it is helpful for companies in general (and SMEs in particular)

- that Ministries and public agencies employ the same documenting demands throughout different support schemes

- that several countries (e.g. EURASEC countries) agree on a joint patent (discussion on an EU patent has been going on without major advancements over decades).

(2) Inter-connectivity with other systemsPrivate enterprises need to and do operate

increasingly through and within global innovation value chains (GVCs). However, this is not reflected in most countries’ innovation policies. Still, innovation policy narrowly looks at the immediate direct effect a support measure has within the system (e.g. number of jobs

created in a specific country); transnational collaboration is often discouraged, partly tolerated. National/regional public RTD policies aim at supporting research and development in firms and public research institutions in order to create and capture value for the home-country economy and society: policy is an investment which aims at generating a return for the investing community. Typically, foreign innovation partners with whom a domestic consortium wants to collaborate are not eligible for funding.

Two approaches have proven powerful in addressing this issue:

- Enlargement of the relevant system, e.g. merger of municipalities, merger of regions, creation of the Innovation Union by the EU. Within the new larger system, it is often systematically encouraged to work over the former borders. The EU has been running large scale programmes for decades which are dedicated to overcoming national borders. For instance, within interreg there are three strands which address (a) collaboration between neighbouring regions across national borders, (b) collaboration between regions from within a mega region comprising of several nations like e.g. the Baltic Sea or the Alpes Maritimes, and (c) collaboration between regions from different mega regions. Increasingly, the EU encourages regions to emphasise innovation in their initiatives.

- Accepting that some borders will remain and that cross-border innovation value chains can be encouraged3. Strategic mutual policy learning initiatives have been launched by e.g. the EU to foster such understanding. A prominent success case is the GLOVAL project which seeks to offer practical tools for appraising public RTD investments in GVCs to RTD policymakers.

(3) Provision of need-oriented growth supporting services

SME-driven economic growth demands for an entrepreneurial climate and a need-oriented growth supportive infrastructure, i.e. innovation policy must not be reduced to pre-competitive basic research policy. Innovation policy should provide a growth fostering framework either by directly providing public resources and services (e.g. offering high quality higher education through public universities), by engaging in public private partnerships (e.g. in the field of venture capital) or by stimulating an efficient private market (e.g. in respect to technical consultancy services).

More specifically, this means that death valleys have to be avoided by all means. Today, we suffer from at least two such valleys: (1) valley of death between research result and a marketable product respectively service, and (2) valley of death between pampered start-up and viable high growth SME.

3 Value chains are broader than supply chains. The latter embrace the more immediate linear model of material inputs required for the production of a good (or service), while the former also include the much wider set of material and immaterial inputs upstream of production as well as activities and relationships downstream of the same and inducing or injecting knowledge at particular steps in the chain

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Many territories have invested in incubators and start up business centres but few take into consideration the “follow on growth” property and service package that is necessary to accompany SME growth and the retention of strategic employment in the locality. This is often considered as too close to the market. Territories that are determined to support high growth SMEs need to put in place a variety of measures if they are to remain attractive.

Across Europe a number of leading innovation territories (science parks) working with cluster actors have put in place measures to develop specific property and service packages for high growth SMEs. These are sometimes called “Business Hotels” or Innovation and technology centre’s and provide space of upwards of 1000m2. They include shared facilities and services and allow the company to continue to expand rapidly in accordance with their needs. In addition, cluster governance organizations provide a package of measures to help SMEs link with large companies, access venture finance and help them internationalise at a faster rate than their peers by encouraging them to integrate into European research and innovation partnerships.

(4) Explicit dedication to serve SMEsAdopted in June 2008, the “Small Business Act” for

Europe (SBA) reflects the Commission’s political will to recognise the central role of SMEs in the EU economy and for the first time puts into place a comprehensive SME policy framework for the EU and its Member States.

The SBA is a set of 10 principles to guide the conception and implementation of policies both at EU and Member State level. These principles aim at bringing added value at EU level, creating a level playing field for SMEs and improving the legal and administrative environment throughout the EU:

- Create an environment in which entrepreneurs and family businesses can thrive and entrepreneurship is rewarded.

- Ensure that honest entrepreneurs who have faced bankruptcy quickly get a second chance.

- Design rules according to the “Think Small First” principle.

- Make public administrations responsive to SMEs’ needs.

- Adapt public policy tools to SME needs: facilitate SMEs’ participation in public procurement and better use State Aid possibilities for SMEs.

- Facilitate SMEs’ access to finance and develop a legal and business environment supportive to timely payments in commercial transactions.

- Help SMEs to benefit more from the opportunities offered by the Single Market.

- Promote the upgrading of skills in SMEs and all forms of innovation.

- Enable SMEs to turn environmental challenges into opportunities.

- Encourage and support SMEs to benefit from the growth of markets.

The Review of the “Small Business Act” for Europe (2011) shows that Europe’s dedication to become more SME friendly in terms of policies and laws has resulted in measurable achievements, but that major efforts still have to be undertaken at all level of policy.

ConclusionInvesting tax payers’ money into SME-friendly

environments will generate substantial returns. These investments can - with benefit - be directed towards stimulating entrepreneurship, motivating and enabling research institutions and other innovation support providers to meet SMEs’ demands as well as increasing transparency and critical mass of innovation systems.

Ad (2) valley of death between pampered start-up and viable high growth SME

© engage AG, Karlsruhe, 2009, Seite 1

Challenges with respect to start-ups

HEFPublic Private Partnership

Joint closing of competence andfunding gap

TechnologyScreeningIdentification, evaluation and

further development of business ideas relevant to the market

TTFPublicresearch anddevelopment Market entry

Growth• new customers• new markets• new products

Start-up Business idea

Start-up preparationMarket analysis, structuring,

funding, team,business planning

Technical & economicproof of concept

Ramp-up ManagementSales, controlling,

marketing, funding,organisation, human resources

Portfolio managementEnsuring of shareholder rights,

follow-up funding, business transactions

EXIST

In case of success:●Revenues for public research●Return for private investors

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INNOVATIVE CONGRESS

One of the main features of society in post crisis period is a broad implementation of innovations in industries.

World practice shows that the XXI century will be the century of global growth of innovations.

The term “innovation” means the development of a new manufacturing process, product or service. And from Latin it is translated as an upgrade, a change, a new method to meet social needs.

Nowadays global scientific and technical progress is unimaginable without the intellectual products of innovation, that’s why this sector forms its own scientific system. Because of this, many scientists give the following definition: “Innovation is the wealth obtained from capital which is invested to new equipment and technologies; new forms of organization of goods production, services, management and other systems” [8-9]. According to these descriptions, we can conclude that innovation is the invention of new high liquid products. In this regard, we should note that not all the discoveries are innovations. Because such discoveries as the disclosure of the unknown natural phenomena perform fundamental functions and have no wealth, they are considered only as the yields of scientific research.

In the system of economic relations innovations have a big role. Developed countries have realized earlier that without using innovations in manufacturing, it is impossible to get a competitive product and that is why they use all the power in it. Therefore, in a competitive market economy, innovation is a valuable tool in reducing the cost of goods, in increasing investment flow, in shaping the image of a manufacturer and in occupying new markets, especially foreign ones.

On the technological characteristics innovations are divided into: product innovations and process innovations. If the product innovations are focused on receiving a new product by using new materials and semi finished products, the process innovations are the method of organizing production through new technologies. Also according to the scope innovations are divided into innovations for the worldwide industry, domestic industries of the country and a particular company. It must be remembered that the main characteristic of the innovations is that it is the result of scientific and technological researches, therefore such novelties as changing the color and the type of a product are not considered as innovations. Because a product was undergone to partial changes, but it is not a novelty, which has not been in production before. In general, innovations must correspond to the international

standard which determines its technical characteristics and market-based installations, which was adopted in 1992 in Oslo.

First of all the driving force of innovation is market competition. In market conditions, manufacturers of products or services always look for ways to avoid the industrial crisis and new markets for goods. Therefore, enterprises which acquired innovations earlier have an advantage over their competitors. Especially nowadays at the time of financial scarce, when kinds of goods and consumer tastes have been increased, small businesses will have benefits to enhance abilities to elasticity. According to world practice, for small enterprises which do not want to stay without revenues, the prior matter becomes the production of new products and new technologies.

Researchers of innovations divide the manufacturing process of new product into seven steps. It starts with the birth of innovative ideas and continues with the definition of market, production and sales. Firstly a new product is produced in small quantities, advertised, determined its viability through the sales process. Here we need to increase sales of an innovative product in the market conditions, lower prices, use additional methods, such as bonus gifts and income. Also innovations, which have been served a certain period and have been lived up, were not completely obsolete, it is necessary to move them into the next region or in another market.

In market economy, delaying the process of implementing innovative ideas for the long term is identical to the destruction of its value. Because in the system based on the rule “money-innovation”, there are some cases when enterprises create and sell the similar version of the project, which was developed by another company a long time before, in order to get income faster. Now in our country the main strategic objectives are the acquirement of new information technologies aimed to the production, and the development of potential of the country in industrial and scientific techniques. In this regard, Strategy of Industrial-Innovational development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2003-2015 was approved in 2003. The aim of the strategy is to achieve stable development through diversification of non-primary sectors of the economy and to create conditions

INDUSTRIAl MAP OF INTENSIVE DEVElOPMENTOF THE INDUSTRY

By Baurzhan Isabekov, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor of L.N. Gumilev Eurasian National University

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for transition into service and technological economy in the long term plan.

The basis for such an important step of Kazakhstan is the pace of world economic development. Stable diversified communications and links are currently formed among countries. Owning of the world economy of such institutions as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and transnational corporations is an impetus for such developing countries as Kazakhstan to the rapid development of innovative values. The fact is that outlying developing countries act as a supplier of raw materials, and the central developed countries, paving the foundation for the above-mentioned institutions, process these raw materials and resell the finished product them, generates a risk that in the future countries directed at raw material become dependent from the situation on world commodity markets. As the world practice shows, countries with rich reserves of raw materials receive significant income from this sector and do not try to develop new industries. However, because the reserves of raw materials run out one day, according to stable development, commodity-dependent countries may face to big problems. Latin America, Mexico and Brazil, South Korea and Singapore which were originally considered as commodity-dependent countries, have proven that through the implementation of innovation policy, i.e. through the transition to a service and technological economy, it is possible to achieve prosperity. The current situation shows the efficiency of the adoption of East Asian countries practices by Kazakhstan [10-15].

In accordance with industrial-innovational strategy the first steps in the development of processing industry have been already done [16]. There were created such development institutions as an Investment Fund, Innovation Fund, Development Bank, Export credit and investment insurance corporation aimed at the developing of projects on formation of high-tech and scientific industries, at their financing and attracting foreign investment. Development Bank has been involved in 35 investment projects and export transactions in amount

of $400 million since its foundation. Also nowadays mentioned institutes of development receive hundreds of projects on consumer goods from the private business sector of the country. Since 2002, projects which past expertise of quality of the new product has started to be financed. In this regard, domestic innovative projects are put stringent requirements to ensure that they will stand the market competition, they are considered to be invested only through development institutions. Kazakh experts came to this decision basing on the practices of the Republic of the Philippines, which did not receive any results from financing the macro-industrial projects. For example, in Alatau situated near Almaty city a free economic zone “Informational Park of Technologies” has been launched, which focuses on exports in IT industry and deals with import substitution.

So, nowadays, in order to build a future up to 2015, the following main objectives of industrial-innovational functioning are proposed:

- to strengthen the economy of a sovereign country;- completely eliminate the crisis in the complex of

national economies in market conditions;- to stabilize the industrial manufacture;- to implement a radical reorganization of structured

branches of industry, development of import substitution technologies, increasing production and economic potential;

- creation of self-developing industrial and economic structures in the industrial system;

- creation of insurance monetary funds;- integration of the republican industry and the

economy of commonwealth countries, and the world economy;

- accelerated socio-economic development of the industry complexes, branches, regions and the whole country.

Industrial structural map of industrial and innovational activity of the future can be represented as blocks interconnected system actions (Figure 1):

Figure 1Industrial structural map of industrial and innovational activity

1. Preparation of measures by prefacing the obvious crisis

occurences in the basic branches of industry

2. Preparation and realization of the forced autonomous

functioning concept of the country industry

Structural concept of industrial-innovational activity

5. Preparation and realization of operative and intensive

development program of the industry

3. Preparation and realization of a program on stabilization of

industry activity

4. Preparation and realization of a program of accumulation of potential for

intensive development of industry

Note: made by author

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INNOVATIVE CONGRESS

Preparation of a development project-

script of crisis occurrences and

processes

Creation of a state purposeful insurance fund

Creation of a state purposeful insurance and currency fund to provide the import of

resources

Preparation of suggestions on the blocks of functional normative acts of all property types enterprises in the extremely crisis

situations

Making contracts with the CIS and foreign states, guaranteeing

the supply of essential materials and technical products, energy and

raw materials

Priority development

of strong industries

Development of export products

manufacture

Cessation of imports of common goods and

organization of their production in the country

Cessation of imports of common

goods and organization of their

production in the country

Reorganization of industry structuring

I. Preparation of measures by prefacing the obvious crisis occurrences in the basic branches of industry (Figure 2).

Objectives: to provide maximum protection to the work of basic industries and the elimination of crisis occurrences in the spheres of interstate relations, material production and the economy, natural disasters and possible unpleasant situations within the country.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- preparation of a development project-script of crisis occurrences and processes, creation of mechanisms of functioning the industrial production in such conditions;

- creation of a state purposeful insurance fund on essential material and technical, raw materials, and on production and technical products;

- creation of a state purposeful insurance and currency fund to provide the import of essential technical products, raw materials and energy;

- preparation of suggestions on the blocks of functional normative acts of all property types enterprises in the extremely crisis situations;

- making contracts with the CIS and foreign states, guaranteeing the supply of essential materials and technical products, energy and raw materials.

Figure 2Preparation of measures by prefacing the obvious crisis occurrences in the basic branches of industry

Figure 3Preparation and realization of the forced autonomous functioning concept of the country industry

Note: made by author

Note: made by author

II. Preparation and realization of the forced autonomous functioning concept of the country industry (Figure 3).Objectives: the use of objectively and subjectively unnoticed potential of the country for a rational, autonomous

development of the industry of the country in an inefficient economy and international relations.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives: a critical analysis of concepts of industry country development in the programs of the former Soviet Union and preparation of the constructive policy of autonomous self-development. On this basis, the following must lie:

- priority development of strong industries;- development of export products manufacture;- cessation of imports of common goods and organization of their production in the country;- radical development of high-quality products;- reorganization of industry structuring.III. Preparation and realization of a program on stabilization of industry activity (Figure 4):

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Preparation of measures on the expenditure manufacturing in the industry

Measure systems on intra-integration relationships

Measures system on structural and functional processes management

Resource provision through internal sources and reserves

Measures to pull the large enterprises and industrial complexes out of a recession

Accelerated stabilization of «mechanism of industry»

Backing of foreign investment to stabilize the industry activity

Stimulation of increasing of scarce goods for the national economy

Urgent regulation and management of industry

Figure 4Preparation and realization of a program on stabilization of industry activity

Note: made by author

1. Preparation and realization of measures on the expenditure manufacturing in the industry.

Objectives: To release the industry from bankruptcy enterprises and negative devices by using explicit crisis occurrences and recession in the period of instability in material production sectors. To create the conditions for new ideology of development and for reorganization of the production.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- identification and analysis of real causes of economic bankruptcy and production decline, the group of macro and micro levels of expendable enterprises

with no future;- preparation of proposals about a shutdown of

bankruptcy enterprises;- preparation of the mechanism of withdrawal

the expendable enterprises from the economic crisis on the basis of diversification of production, privatization of enterprises through corporatization and participation of foreign partners;

- preparation of measures and decisions on state aid to expendable enterprises which make the products for national economy of a country.

2. Preparation and realization of measure systems on intra-integration relationships.

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Objectives: to achieve the highest economic result in the development of industries, industrial complexes and holdings on the basis of synergetic optimization of industrial, commercial, economic, property and other relations.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- preparation of a chart about relations of industrial complexes and complexes of the national economy by taking into account the movement of raw, material, manufacture and financial means;

- preparation and realization of mechanism for synergetic optimization management of interrelation processes of industrial complexes and complexes of the national economy;

- preparation and realization of a set of proposals about mechanisms on effective regulation the interrelation of infrastructure (energetic, water and land management, ecology, etc.) and industry of the country, ensuring the profitability of the industry.

3. Preparation and realization measures system on structural and functional processes management of joint stock and holding industrial and economic structures.

Objectives: to provide the effective realization of potential of new industrial-economic structures formed on the basis of change process of a pattern of ownership, considering economic targets and development prospects.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- optimization estimate of internal structures of created joint stock and holding companies for consolidated level of participants’ interests, the stability of the integration interrelations, the future and synergic effectiveness of joint development;

- making an analysis of programs of production and economic and social activity of joint-stock and holding companies through taking into account major strategic directions of national economy needs and economic development of a country,

- preparation and realization of measures system on optimization of joint-stock and holding companies structure on the basis of the analysis and a system of estimation;

- preparation of suggestions on perfection of government regulation mechanism of joint-stock and holding companies activities.

4. Preparation of a program on resource provision through internal sources and reserves.

Objectives: to aggregate free resources formed by the needs of industrial complexes in the scarce resources, to stabilize maintenance of redistribution due to effectively adjusted economic calculation.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- creation of a centralized bank of information data about all types of forming resources;

- preparation and realization of operative management mechanism of free resource reserves;

- preparation and realization of suggestions on creation of extra-budgetary financial fund of industry stabilization on a returnable basis.

5. Preparation and realization of mechanisms in support of foreign investment to stabilize the industry activity.

Objectives: to accelerate the solution of problems to provide stabilization of industry by attracting foreign capital. Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- creation of a centralized bank of information data on proposed facilities for investment and a bank of suggestions of industrial-financial groups and foreign firms;

- organization of a scheme of direct measures and information exchange between enterprises and foreign partners;

- preparation and realization of a program on using foreign capital at the state level in order to stabilize industry.

6. Preparation and realization of a program for urgent measures to pull the large enterprises and industrial complexes out of a recession.

Objectives: To pull the economy out of crisis, to stabilize activities, to provide essential facilities, such as manufacture of machinery for the national economy.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- detailed analysis and assessment of situations of large industrial facilities in the crisis;

- preparation of a program to pull the economy out of crisis and suggestions on measures of state backing;

- easier taxation terms;- duties and taxes, providing with raw materials;- creation of convenient conditions for trade.7. Preparation and realization of suggestions to

stimulate increase of scarce goods for the national economy.

Objectives: To ensure the stability of industry activity, creating a basis for its further development.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- preparation and approval of nomenclature register of important productions for the national economy at the state level;

- preparation and approval of stimulating the production of deficient products and production amount system, which includes the following provisions at the state level:

- release of nominally high amount of output from income tax;

- the differential facilitated profit tax from important products manufacturing;

- giving the licenses for productions export over the face-value together with release from export taxes.

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8. Preparation and realization of accelerated stabilization program of priority «mechanism of industry».

Objectives: acceleration of effective stabilization of “Currency locomotive”, “mechanism of industry” of national economy.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- estimation of the future of key economic branches, enterprises and detailed analysis of their situations for “Industrial channel” definition;

- preparation of accelerated program of “Industrial channel” stabilization, that is within 1-2 years;

- preparation and approval of the program providing an industrial card of resource means, the program of measures on state regulation at the state level.

9. Preparation and realization of measures system on urgent regulation, management and match of material manufacturing industry.

Objectives: to provide the government of the republic with the information about present and the nearest future situations of industry. Possibility of urgent regulation of industrial manufacturing processes, the organization of interrelations between industrial complexes and branches and the possibility to accept the effective decisions connected with the industry management.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- database creation on the information-analytical statistics of a situation, realization of movements of finance, raw balance, material streams;

- creation and realization of an analysis system of industry possibilities and a system of short-term forecasts preparation;

- creation and realization of urgent suitable system of activity of all industry structures;

- creation and realization of an analysis system of offered administrative decisions and results.

IV. Preparation and realization of a program of accumulation of potential for intensive development of industry in a market economy:

- Public regulation of a relationship mechanism between the public administration agencies and the industry;

- Creation the most efficient system of state backing of industry in a mixed economy;

- Preparation and realization of a program of industry investment policy;

- Preparation and realization of rules, laws, expertise, standardization and patent granting in industry interests.

1. Improvement of the main schematic model of the functional mechanism of relationship between the public administration and the public regulation of industry.

Objectives: To prepare the main chart of industry development in the current conditions of the country, relying on the practices of countries with developed industry and the former Soviet Union.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- preparation of paradigm of advantageous variant of industry development and the fastening activities;

- creation of public administration agencies through basing on the paradigm of mechanism of the functional interrelations between the Ministries of Energy and Transport, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Finance, State Committee for Property and others;

- approval of quotas on all export products and on domestic consumer consumption goods;

- settlement of nomenclature, amount and direction of export;

- realization and approval of the measures system at the state level to improve credit and investment policy of industry.

2. Preparation and realization of industrial map of creation the most efficient system of state backing of industry in a market economy.

Objectives: To create an effective regulation system of industrial complexes of the country, taking into account different organizational features of the structure, ownership and activities. Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- analysis of global practice of industrial complex governance in conditions of market economy and the preparation of methodical bases of selection;

- preparation and realization of multistage adaptation of industrial complex governance in conditions of market economy;

- preparation and realization of joint stock and holding companies, established by a system of measures on the most efficient use of government capital to solve strategic issues of national economic development;

- systematization of information on small and medium businesses, creation of the management and organizational structure of small and medium businesses in the industry, ensuring its effective contribution to the economy;

- preparation and realization of measures to support small and medium businesses.

3. Preparation and realization of a program of industry investment policy.

Objectives: To ensure rapid and efficient development of industry through purposeful investment into perspective projects. Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- preparation of scientifically based methodical framework of investment projects selection;

- analysis of all submitted projects using the methodical framework and determination of investment projects blocks;

- the major capital investments for investment projects financed by the fund of modernization of country economy must be implemented in connection with the financing of new productions that are important for the national economy;

- preparation and approval at the state level of the programs of investment projects, as well as a list of priority projects financed by foreign loans;

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- realization on advantages of the following directions of investment projects through using foreign loans:

- fundamental structural modification and modernization of major investment complexes;

- formation of strong sources of scarce resources and raw materials;

- investing of new enterprises, producing goods for export;

- creation of a scientific multitude and production of scarce goods;

- conversion and diversification;- preparation and approval at the state level

of creating a special investment bank for industrial complexes reconstruction and development with the participation of foreign capital in order to radically improve foreign credits and investments effective using;

- preparation, approval and realization of establishing privatization investment fund of industry at the state level in order to substantially increase the effective realization of investment projects financed in the national currency of Kazakhstan.

4. Preparation and realization of measures for effective conducting of procedures in such spheres as rules, laws, expertise, standardization and patent granting in industry interests.

Objectives: to improve the efficiency of stabilization and industry development process.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- analysis, classification and calculation of all basic information on certain activities;

- preparation of the charter about intellectual property fund of industry;

- preparation and realization of standardization and certification program of industrial production products, especially new species. Systematic organization of activities in the field of norms and laws.

V. Preparation and realization of operative and intensive development program of the industry:

- Economy of energy and resources in the industry;- Integration of Kazakhstan industry into the

economy of CIS countries and the global economy;- Training the qualified professionals;- Thorough productivity improvement;- Preparation and realization of purposeful priority

programs for the development of industrial complexes.Objectives: with the help of strategy of rapid and

intensive development of industry based on the final decision of program regarding issues of blocks1-4, it is possible to reach its stable operation, to create the initial potential for economic and technological “breakthrough”.

Strategies and actions for achieving these objectives:

- evaluation and detailed analysis of effective using trends of the initial capacity, which includes the following:

- stable working “mechanism of industry”;- improved scheme of government regulation and

control of industrial complexes;

- economic infrastructure of stable elements of the market;

- reliable integration of industries and the diversity of relationships between them;

- founded credit and investment framework;- system of norms and laws;- informational-analytical statistics;- preparation of the structural scheme of rapid

and intensive development program of industry in the following program blocks:

- Government national program;- programs for the development of industries;- special programs;- programs of purposeful priority of industrial

development;- preparation of functional interrelations principles of

blocks based on the purposeful priority concept, as well as the most priority program blocks among other blocks.

Ensuring the realization of the following previously prepared programs in deadlines in accordance with the objectives:

1. Governmental National Program for the Development of metallurgical industry and chemical complexes of Kazakhstan for 2010-2012.

2. Governmental national program of production areas creation for the production of import substitution products.

3. Governmental national program of consumer consumption goods production.

4. Development of mechanical engineering.5. Governmental program of security complex

enterprises conversion.Preparation and realization of the following blocks of

special programs:A. Program of economy of energy and resources in

the industry.A system of precise control of the organization

of large-scale implementation of technologies and equipment, which save energy and resources, organization of replacement of physically and morally obsolete equipment, organization of production of energy and materials costing equipment must be considered in the core of the program.

B. Program of Integration of Kazakhstan industry into the economy of CIS countries and the global economy.

Under the program actions are focused in the directions of the establishing joint enterprises, international joint-stock companies and consortiums, the creating large technical corporations such as syndicates of development, realization of projects combined with an investment of projects through the consolidated finances.

C. The program for training the qualified professionals for the industry.

The main objective of the program is to compensate the production industry of the country, especially the qualified professionals, who left the “mechanism of industry”, as well as the creation of courses of new professions related with the new forms of production.

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Solution of this problem determines the basis of the objectives of rapid and intensive development of industry.

D. Program of thorough productivity improvement in the industry.

The program is one of the highest priority issues. Because it objectively determines the exact level of industrialization. Different planned measures for achieving the objectives are realized on a detailed analysis of this issue in the industries, industrial complexes and private enterprises.

E. Preparation and realization of purposeful priority programs for the development of industrial complexes.

The fundamental basis for creating the purposeful priority program blocks is: their implementation, which on the one hand is directed to solve problems of effective development of the industry, and on the other hand, provides the basic objectives of the governmental national programs.

F. Completed and preparing purposeful priority programs for the development of industrial complexes are directed to the following solutions:

- full technical re-equipment, substantial reconstruction and modernization of enterprises of basic sectors of the industry;

- creation and development of modern production facilities, which produce machinery and equipment for procession the agricultural products, an urgent technical re-equipment of machine building;

- development of basic industries, providing foreign exchange potential of the country;

- balance achievement between imports and exports;

- increasing the export potential of the country;- creation and development of manufactures which

produce high quality products at the global level, to ensure stable export and foreign exchange incomes;

- intensive increasing of technically complex types and amount of production of high quality consumer consumption goods;

- creation of production areas on production of import substitution products;

- creation and development of industrial areas of goods production that determine the efficiency of the basic industries, i.e. important products to the national economy;

- implementation of rationally balanced efficient conversion of the military-industrial enterprises;

- realization of all sectors of material production with balanced economic trends;

- full processing of ore and minerals on the basis of progressive, nonpolluting and non-waste technologies and equipments;

- creation of conditions for effective development of resource base of industrial complexes;

- large-scale processing of wastes through maximizing utilization of industrial production;

- immediate and radical improvement of the situation in ecological disaster regions;

- development and strengthening of small and medium businesses industries;

- stockpiling of rare and expensive metals, diamonds, precious stones;

- improvement of the socio-economic development of regions, employment increasing and social guarantees ensuring;

In order to successfully realize the priority programs we need to create a system of concrete measures on governmental support:

- ensuring a legislative framework and its development;

- reorganization of the economy, efficient and target-oriented using of foreign investment and credit finance, public funds;

- creation of conditions for easier borrowing and taxation terms;

- creation of conditions for foreign trade activities, as well as licensing and quotas.

The analysis of illustrated tactics shows the next: equal competitive conditions for all market participants will be created, initiative of private property will get benefit in economy. Economic competitiveness will increase using advances in science. Research on management and marketing will be conducted in accordance with the requirements.

Investment and innovation projects will be selected on the basis of transparency and orientation, and will be realized primarily with the financing by public financial funds. Tax and customs legislation will stimulate the export of Kazakhstan`s competitive product and the attraction of investment into the country. Production of high technology products, goods with high added value is aimed on the basis of structural shift in industry. On this basis diversification of exports will be realized, the proportion of the exported product of Kazakhstan, finished products and industrial-innovational services of Kazakhstan economy will increase in the world economy.

We will have an opportunity to thorough development of entrepreneurship, using features of innovative business. The proportion of non-market sectors will be decreased. This will provide an opportunity to increase the amount of GDP in 3,5-4,0 times; maintenance of average annual growth rate of processing industries within the range of 8-8.4%; labor productivity gains at least 3 times; and 2-fold reduction of power-intensity of GDP by 2015. The social situation of the population, wages and pensions, income will increase in 2,0-2,5 times. If we entirely implement the concept, we can achieve the main objectives of the concept in a deadline. This concept covers the creation of highly profitable, industrial manufactures, which support enhancement of economic security and independence of Kazakhstan.

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В рубрике «Партнер АЕЭКУ» мы представляем Уральский государственный экономический уни-верситет (УрГЭУ) – вуз, динамично входящий в ми-ровую образовательную систему и являющийся дав-ним партнером клуба.

Университеты Европы, Америки, Юго-Восточ-ной Азии сегодня не являются самостоятельными, независимыми и самодостаточными научно-образо-вательными корпорациями. Связанные единой кро-веносной системой обменов, они, в первую очередь – ячейки (элементы) целостной сети, которая, собст-венно, и является производителем образовательных услуг.

В какой-то мере образовательный процесс в сфере высшего профессионального образования сегодня вне единой международной системы (ми-ровой, европейской или евразийской) в принципе НЕВОЗМОЖЕН.

В университете складывается модель УрГЭУ как евразийской научно-образовательной международ-ной корпорации, которая включает в себя следую-щие главные компоненты:

1. Студенты УрГЭУ имеют усиленную програм-му в области изучения иностранного языка, рассчи-танную на 4 года; не менее трети студентов владеют иностранным языком на уровне, достаточным для участия в учебных занятиях.

Ежегодно для краткосрочных стажировок в веду-щих зарубежных университетах (на срок до 1 меся-ца) из УрГЭУ выезжают не менее 200 студентов. На долгосрочное обучение (учебный семестр и более) ежегодно направляются не менее 50 студентов.

2. По программам обмена в УрГЭУ на кратко-срочных и среднесрочных курсах (стажировках) обу-чение проходят не менее 20 студентов-иностранцев.

3. Для проведения учебных занятий в зарубеж-ных вузах по контракту ежегодно направляется не менее десяти преподавателей УрГЭУ.

4. В УрГЭУ по контрактам ведут учебные заня-тия и участвуют в управлении учебным процессом (советники ректората, консультанты органов управ-ления учебным процессом) постоянно 3-5 зарубеж-ных специалистов.

5. УрГЭУ является членом ведущих междуна-родных ассоциаций, таких как

- Ассоциация «Евразийский экономический клуб ученых»;

- Международная Ассоциация университетов;- Европейская Ассоциация университетов;- Евразийская Ассоциация университетов;- Европейская Ассоциация ведущих бизнес-

школ гостиничного менеджмента EURHODIP;- Европейская академия розничной торговли

(ERA);6. УрГЭУ является признанным международным

центром научной и социокультурной конгрессной деятельности в области научно-производствен-ной и инновационной, учебно-методической и образовательной и международной молодеж-ной деятельности, включая образование, науку, спорт и художественное творчество.

7. УрГЭУ является одним из центров научной и социокультурной публицистики в своем сег-менте (экономика, менеджмент, финансы).

Так, университет является издателем и соучре-дителем научного журнала «Известия Уральского государственного экономического университета» и научно-аналитического журнала «Управленец» (оба журнала включены в Перечень ведущих рецензируе-мых журналов и изданий, в которых должны быть

О ВХОЖДЕНИИ УРГЭУ В МИРОВУЮ ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНУЮ СИСТЕМУ

Михаил Федоров, д.э.н. Заместитель Председателя Координационного Совета АЕЭКУРектор Уральского государственного экономического университета, Россия, г. Екатеринбург

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опубликованы основные научные результаты дис-сертаций на соискание ученых степеней доктора и кандидата наук, в Российский индекс научного цити-рования).

В УрГЭУ развивается и целенаправленно реор-ганизуется система веб-сайтов как сайтов междуна-родных Центров научно-образовательной и общест-венной деятельности; а также система веб-блогов (авторских страниц в интернете), трансформирую-щаяся в значительную и заметную форму социокуль-турной публицистики по широкому кругу проблем – «УрГЭУ – интернет-публицистический дискуссион-ный центр».

8. УрГЭУ оформлен (фиксирован специаль-ными документальными формами) в качестве опорного пункта общественных движений и ор-ганизаций международного характера:

- Клуб политического действия «4 ноября»;- Институт человека;- Центр содействия Евразийскому экономичес-

кому клубу ученых.9. УрГЭУ является признанным Центром ев-

разийского молодежного движения – на базе уни-верситета функционируют Молодежная дирекция Евразийского экономического форума молодежи и другие координационные и руководящие органы дви-жения.

С 2008 года в г.Екатеринбург на базе Уральско-го государственного экономического университета действует международное молодежное движение под условным названием «Евразийский эконо-мический форум молодежи». За два года в рам-ках Форума прошли: международная деловая игра «ШОС–2039» (Екатеринбург, 2009 г., участники из 11 стран), конгресс молодежных лидеров «Диалог циви-лизаций» (Екатеринбург, 2010 г., представители из 48 стран), массовые мероприятия в Астане, Берлине, Казани, Ереване. В организации и проведении ме- роприятий форума лично участвуют известные об-щественно-политические и государственные деяте-ли России и зарубежных стран.

По итогам Первого евразийского экономического форума молодежи 2009-2010 гг. была сформирована делегация из 200 самых активных участников, кото-рая на специальном поезде - Евразийском молодеж-ном экспрессе - отправилась в столицу Республики Казахстан Астану для представления своих идей и проектов в Молодежной секции III Астанинского эко-номического форума.

Стоит отметить, что Молодежная секция в рам-ках Астанинского экономического форума проходи-ла в 2010 году впервые! Никогда ранее студентам университетов не предоставлялась возможность присутствовать на таком серьезном мероприятии и выступать наравне с ведущими учеными-экономис-тами, политическими деятелями и представителями бизнес-сообществ из более чем 45 стран мира. Это показатель того, что деловой и научный миры заин-

тересованы в креативных идеях, в свежем взгляде на старые проблемы.

Лидеры тематических направлений были удо-стоены высшей награды Первого Евразийского эко-номического форума молодежи «Звезда Евразии», а вся молодежная делегация получила возможность пообщаться и сфотографироваться с лауреатом Но-белевской премии по экономике Робертом Джоном Ауманном.

В 2010-2011 гг. Уральский государственный экономический университет совместно с Ассоциа-цией «Евразийский экономический клуб ученых», Российским университетом дружбы народов, Мос-ковским государственным университетом имени М.В.Ломоносова, Московским государственным институтом (университетом) международных от-ношений МИД России и Уральским федеральным университетом имени первого Президента России Б.Н.Ельцина проводят очередной этап Евразийско-го экономического форума молодежи 2010-2011 гг. «Диалог цивилизаций - Путь на Север» как путь к совершенству, обладанию новыми знаниями, гар-моничному развитию системы «Человек-природа» с освоением ресурсов северных территорий.

На данный момент молодежная Дирекция ЕЭФМ занимается развитием следующих перспективных направлений деятельности форума:

- усиление и расширение взаимодействия с АЕЭКУ;

организация работы с представительствами ди-рекции ЕЭФМ в разных странах мира и регионах РФ (создание и развитие «опорных пунктов»);

- создание и развитие Центра координации международных молодежных движений (в уни-верситете имеют официальную аккредитацию пред-ставительства более 50 международных молодеж-ных движений и объединений разного уровня);

- создание Центра содействия консульской дея-тельности;

- расширение Армии содействия ЕЭФМ – меж-дународного волонтерского отряда, занимающегося организацией мероприятий форума в разных горо-дах и странах мира;

- создание Международного актива старше-классников как формы практической реализации системы непрерывного образования;

- создание Ассоциации иностранных студентов Екатеринбурга как представительства Ассоциации иностранных студентов России;

- интеграция мероприятий форума в учебный процесс университетов;

- реализация конгрессных мероприятий;- подготовка и проведение Финального Фестива-

ля ЕЭФМ и суперфиналов.28-30 апреля 2011 г. в Екатеринбурге состоится

беспрецедентное событие: Финальный Фестиваль ЕЭФМ, в котором примут участие молодежь, победи-тели конкурсов и эксперты из более чем 100 стран

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мира и 50 регионов РФ, а в июне 2011 г. на территории, прилегающей к Арктическому поясу, впервые в истории состоится Моло-дежный Арктический саммит, на который съедутся участники и эксперты из всех се-верных стран и регионов мира.

Суперфиналы Форума пройдут в рам-ках Форума промышленности и иннова-ций «Иннопром-2011» (14-16 июля 2011 г., г. Екатеринбург), Мирового политического форума (сентябрь 2011 года, г. Ярославль). В 2011 г. запланировано очередное про-ведение молодежной секции Астанинского экономического форума, которая пройдет на базе Евразийского национального уни-верситета им. Л.Н.Гумилева.

Таким образом, УрГЭУ сегодня нахо-дится на стадии реального практического включения в сеть международного универ-ситетского образования как его евразийский сегмент.

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Today under the heading “Partner of EECSA” we present the Urals State University of Economics (USUE) – the higher education institution, that is rapidly entering the global educational system and is a longtime partner of the club.

Today, the Universities of Europe, America and South-East Asia are not self-sufficient, independent and self-reliant scientific and educational corporations. Related by a single circulatory system of exchanges, they, first of all, are the cells (elements) of an integrated network, which, in fact, is a producer of educational services.

In some way, today, the educational process in higher educational system, is almost IMPOSSIBLE out of the single international system (global, European or Eurasian).

The University develops a model of USUE as a Eurasian scientific and educational international corporation which includes the following major components:

Students of USUE have an enhanced program of foreign language study, scheduled for 4 years. At least a third of students speak a foreign language at the level sufficient to participate in classes.

Annually at least 200 students from USUE go abroad (for up to 1 month) for short-term internships at leading universities. At least 50 students leave for long-term training (semester or more) annually.

2. At least 20 foreign students undergo training in USUE on short and medium term courses (internship) as exchange programs.

3. For teaching at foreign universities under the contract there annually sent at least ten teachers from USUE.

4. Under contract in USUE from 3 to 5 foreign experts permanently give lessons and participate in the educational process management (rectorate advisers, consultants of educational process management)

5. USUE is a member of the leading international associations, such as

- “Eurasian economic club of scientists” Association- International Association of Universities - European Association of Universities - Eurasian Association of Universities - European Association of leading business schools

of hotel management EURHODIP; - European Academy of retail trade (ERA);

6. USUE is the recognized international center of scientific and socio-cultural congress activity in the field of scientific production and innovation activity, teaching and methodological, educational and international youth activities, including education, science, sport and arts.

7. USUE is one of the centers of scientific and socio-cultural journalism in its segment (economics, management, finance).

Thus, the university is the publisher and co-founder of scientific journal “Proceedings of Urals State University of Economics” and research and analytical journal “Manager” (both are included in the list of the leading peer-reviewed journals and publications, where should be published basic research results of dissertations for academic degrees of doctor and Ph.D. in Russian Science Citation Index).

In USUE there is developing and reorganizing the system of web-sites as sites of international centers of scientific, educational and social activities, as well as the system is web-blogs (author’s pages on the Internet), transforming into a significant and visible form of social and cultural journalism on a wide range of problems - “USUE - Internet journalistic discussion center”

8. USUE is registered (recorded in special documentary) as the reference point of social movements and organizations of international character:

- Club of political action, “Nov. 4” - Institute of Human - Center for Support of the Eurasian economic club

of scientists.9. USUE is a recognized center of the Eurasian

Youth Movement - there is university-based operating Youth Directorate of the Eurasian Economic Forum of the young and other coordinating and governing bodies of the movement.

Since 2008 in Yekaterinburg at Urals State University of Economics there has been working an international youth movement, tentatively entitled “Eurasian economic forum of young people”. Within two years, the Forum included: International business game “SCO-2039” (Yekaterinburg, 2009, participants from 11 countries), the Congress of Youth Leaders “The Dialogue of Civilizations “(Yekaterinburg, 2010, representatives from 48 countries), mass events in Astana, Berlin, Kazan, Yerevan. In organizing and holding of forum events there personally involved well-known socio-political and public figures of Russia and foreign countries.

ABOUT ENTERING OF USUE INTO THE GlOBAl EDUCATIONAl SYSTEM

By Mikhail Fedorov, Doctor of Economic Sciences Deputy Chairman of the Coordination Council of EECSAPrincipal of Urals State University of Economics, Russia, Yekaterinburg

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As a result of the First Eurasian Economic Forum of Youth in 2009-2010 there was formed a delegation of 200 most active participants, who on a special train - the Eurasian Youth Express - went to the capital of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, to present their ideas and projects in the Youth Section III in Astana Economic Forum. It is worth noting that the Youth Section within Astana Economic Forum was held in 2010 for the first time! Never before the university students has been given the opportunity to attend such an important event and to act on a par with leading economists, politicians and representatives of business communities from more than 45 countries. This indicates that the business and academic worlds are interested in creative ideas and a fresh look at old problems.

Leaders of the thematic areas were honored the highest award of the First Eurasian Economic Forum of Youth “Eurasian Star”, and the entire youth delegation had the opportunity to talk and be photographed with the Nobel Prize winner for Economics, Robert John Aumann.

In 2010-2011 Urals State University of Economics with the Association “Eurasian economic club of scientists”, Russian University of Peoples’ Friendship, Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov, Moscow State Institute (University) of International Relations, MFA of Russia and the Urals Federal University named after the first Russian President B.N. Yeltsin, are holding the next stage of the Eurasian Economic Forum of Youth 2010-2011 “The Dialogue of Civilizations - path to the North” as a way to perfection, possession of new knowledge and harmonious development of the “man-nature” system with developing the resources of the northern territories.

At the moment EEFM Youth Directorate is developing the next promising areas of the forum:

- strengthening and expanding cooperation with EECSA;

organization work with EEFM directorate representatives in different countries and regions of Russia (establishment and development of the “strong points”);

- Creation and development of the Center of coordinating international youth movements (an the university there have officially accreditation the representatives of more than 50 international youth movements and associations of various levels);

- the establishment of the consular assistance activities;

- extension of the Army of EEFM promotion – the international volunteer group who organize forum events in different cities and countries around the world;

- creation of the international assets of senior pupils as a form of practical implementation of continuous education system;

- creation of the Association of Foreign Students of Yekaterinburg as a representative of the Association of Foreign Students in Russia;

- Integration of Forum events in the educational process at universities;

- implementation of conference events; - preparation and holding of the Final EEFM festival

and Grand Finals.On 28-30 April, 2011 in Yekaterinburg there are

going to be an unprecedented event: Final EEFM Festival, which will involve young people, winners and experts from more than 100 countries and 50 Russian regions, and in June, 2011 at the territory adjacent to the Arctic zone for the first time in the history there will be Youth Summit of the Arctic, which will bring together participants and experts from all Nordic countries and regions.

Super finals of the Forum will be held at the Forum of Industry and Innovation “Innoprom-2011” (14-16 July, 2011, Yekaterinburg), the World Policy Forum (September, 2011, Yaroslavl). In 2011, the scheduled order of the youth section of Astana Economic Forum to be held on the basis of Eurasian National University after L.N. Gumilev.

Thus, USUE is now at the stage of real practical inclusion into the network of international university education as its Eurasian segment.

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Уважаемые дамы и господа!

Позвольте мне приветствовать участников сес-сии «Зеленый рост – перспективы пост-Киото».

За прошедшие годы нам удалось решить значи-тельную часть самых острых экологических проблем. Мы добровольно закрыли ядерный полигон, показав пример для более безопасного мира. Совместно с соседними странами нам удалось организовать сот-рудничество по трансграничным бассейнам Аральс-кого и Каспийского морей.

Мы восстановили в интересах населения и эко-логии Северную часть Аральского моря. В сложный период становления государства мы реабилитиро-вали и минимизировали последствия множества на-копленных за десятилетия «исторических» загрязне-ний и депрессивных территорий.

Сегодня острейшими проблемами для мирового сообщества являются углубление глобального энер-гетического кризиса и нарастающая угроза небла-гоприятных климатических изменений на планете. Человечество с возрастающей интенсивностью про-должает использовать традиционные природные ис-копаемые – нефть, газ, уголь и уран, которые в нас- тоящее время удовлетворяют до 85% мировой пот-ребности в энергоресурсах.

Казахстан, как и многие другие страны, остро чувствует на себе неблагоприятные последствия из-менения климата, усиливаются угрозы экологичес-ких аномалий и катастроф.

Большинство отраслей экономики Казахстана характеризуется высокой энергоемкостью. Возрас-тает вклад в выбросы парниковых газов и от нефте-газового сектора, что связано как с добычей, так и с транспортировкой углеводородов.

В Казахстане использование устаревших тех-нологий на основе угля в промышленном произ-водстве и для выработки электроэнергии являются основными причинами загрязнения атмосферы. Мы занимаем одно из первых мест по углеродоемкости экономики и 71 место по уровню ВВП. В связи с чем предстоит огромная работа, чтобы поменять данные позиции.

В стране существуют значительные технические резервы для выполнения мероприятий, повышаю-щих эффективность использования энергоресурсов.

Одним из механизмов снижения выбросов явля-ется торговля парниковыми газами. В Казахстане на-

чат процесс создания внутреннего углеродного рын-ка, который в перспективе должен быть подключен к международной углеродной торговой площадке. Ра-бота проводится совместно с АО «Товарная биржа «Евразийская Торговая Система».

Все природопользователи провели инвентари-зацию парниковых газов. Сейчас каждому предприя-тию будут определены квоты парниковых газов. За базовый для природопользователей будет принят 2008 год.

Предприятия, снизившие выбросы парниковых газов, смогут продать экономию квот на углеродном рынке. Те же, кто превысил квоты, вынуждены будут либо платить большие штрафы, либо покупать кво-ты на углеродном рынке. В Евросоюзе в Деклара-ции записан штраф в размере 100 евро за 1 тонну СО

2-эквивалента, а стоимость одной тонны на рынке

колеблется от 10 до 30 евро. Выгоднее внедрять эф-фективные технологии и получать двойную прибыль.

Наше министерство вырабатывает методики рас-чётов выбросов и фиксирует объёмы по предприя- тиям. Для этого данные инвентаризации заносятся в государственный кадастр.

ПРИВЕТСТВЕННОЕ СЛОВО ГОСТЯМ И УЧАСТНИКАМ СЕССИИ «ЗЕЛЕНЫЙ РОСТ – ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ПОСТ-КИОТО»

Нургали АшимМинистр охраны окружающей среды Республики Казахстан

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Сейчас создается необходимая нормативная база: МООС проводит имплементацию отдельных положений РКИК ООН и КП именно для начала торговых операций. Будет принят еще ряд норма-тивно-правовых актов, регламентирующих подгото-вительный период получения сертификатов, саму сертификацию и торговлю парниковыми газами.

Нами были проведены переговоры с совместной миссией МБР по Фонду Чистых Технологий (ФЧТ), состоящей из представителей Всемирного Банка, Европейского банка реконструкции и развития и Международной финансовой корпорации. Для Ка-захстана Фонд Чистых Технологий выделит средства для финансирования проектов/программ по чистым технологиям – 1 010 млн. долларов США по 3 на-правлениям:

- Развитие возобновляемых источников энергии – 341 млн. долларов США;

- Модернизация системы централизованного те-плоснабжения – 505 млн. долларов США;

- Финансирование устойчивой энергетики через финансовые институты – 101 млн. долларов США.

На эти средства уже начались проекты по рекон-струкции теплоснабжения в Павлодаре и Петропав-ловске, а также строительство мусороперерабаты- вающего завода в Актау. На очереди другие област-ные центры Казахстана. Предприятия не только по-лучают грант от Фонда Чистых Технологий до 15%, но и сами вкладывают в реконструкцию свои день-ги и берут льготный займ у Европейского банка ре-конструкции и развития.

Казахстан, как и большинство стран мира, при-нял на себя добровольные обязательства по сокра-щению выбросов парниковых газов к 2020 году на 15% по сравнению с базовым уровнем 1992 года, а к 2050 году на 25%.

Поэтому среди правительственных программ особое значение имеет программа „Жасыл даму” – „Зеленое развитие”.

Продвижение по пути низкоуглеродного разви-тия обязывает нас связывать стратегические цели развития с условиями реальной жизни. Достижение значительных и экономически эффективных сокра-щений выбросов в период после 2012 года потребует сочетание разных инструментов и мер – политичес-ких, экономических и технологических.

В процессе перехода к низкоуглеродной эконо-мике страна продолжит проводить социально ориен-тированную политику, направленную на ускоренный рост ВВП с целью повышения благосостояния насе-ления и сближения с развитыми государствами по уровню жизни.

Международный финансовый кризис стимули-рует страну на ускоренное осуществление плана дальнейшей модернизации экономики и реали-зацию стратегии занятости для обеспечения пост-кризисного развития. Программа «Жасыл даму»

включает реконструкцию и совершенствование коммунального хозяйства, обновление социаль-ной инфраструктуры, прежде всего школ и боль-ниц, коренную модернизацию национальной эко-номики.

Страна продолжит финансирование и реа-лизацию действующих перспективных инвести- ционных проектов по нефтеперерабатывающе-му комплексу, строительству гидроэлектростан-ций и реконструкции действующих тепловых электростанций.

Мы запретили сжигание попутного газа при добыче нефти, и в значительных объемах будем закачивать его обратно в недра.

Вне всякого сомнения, выбор пути низкоугле-родного развития явится критической точкой буду-щего развития Казахстана. Низкоуглеродный или «зеленый рост» экономики позволит стране сокра-тить выбросы как парниковых газов, так и других вредных веществ, снижая загрязнение окружающей среды.

В прошлом году в Астане Республика Казахстан выдвинула на Конференции Инициативу «Зеленый мост» – «Астанинская инициатива», как дальнейшее развитие Сеульской инициативы «Зеленый рост».

Принимая решение о выдвижении Астанинской инициативы, мы руководствовались убеждением, что сотрудничество между странами Европы, Азии и Тихого океана даст только положительные результа-ты и дополнительные преимущества действующим региональным программам.

Обмен наилучшими практиками, опытом, созда-ние механизмов передачи чистых технологий, сов-местные инвестиции и демонстрационные проекты для перехода к «зеленой» экономике и сохранения общих экосистем – это далеко не полный перечень возможностей такого сотрудничества.

Инициатива предполагает также полноправное участие частного сектора, международных органи-заций и гражданского сообщества, т.к. проблемы устойчивого развития требуют вовлечения всех сто-рон.

Казахстан, находясь на стыке различных куль-тур, в центре Евразийского континента, имеющий трансграничные общие экосистемы и с европейски-ми и с азиатскими странами выдвигает инициативу «Зеленый мост», как необходимость укрепления со-трудничества в современных условиях.

Мы создали в городе Астана межрегиональный и межсекторальный офис «Зеленый мост», который в свою очередь окажет поддержку в разработке Спе-циальной Программы Партнерства двух регионов - Европы, Азии и Тихого океана – с акцентом на вод-ные экосистемы и проблемы изменения климата.

Астанинская инициатива «Зеленый мост», спо-собствующая объединению усилий стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского и Общеевропейского регионов, мо-

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жет стать – и мы возлагаем на это надежды – еще одним фактором глобальной экологической безопас-ности.

Кроме того, существует потребность в распрост-ранении наилучших практик в таких областях как:

- совершенствование законодательства, совре-менные экономические и методические инструменты управления в сфере охраны окружающей среды и развития;

- развитие механизмов передачи технологий и зеленых инвестиций из развитых стран для сохране-ния экосистем Азии и Тихого океана;

- усиление внутри-регионального сотрудничест-ва для реализации политики и программ «озелене-ния» экономического роста.

Страна берет на себя обязательства по инфор-мационной и экспертно-методической поддержке двух тематических направлений:

- эко-эффективное использование водных ре-сурсов;

- низкоуглеродная экономика и адаптация к из-менению климата.

Актуальность этих тематик для стран региона не требует дополнительного обоснования - они в пол-ной мере отвечают и теме нашего Форума и концеп-ции «зеленого» роста. Мы полагаем, что обсуждение этих вопросов будет наиболее востребовано в стра-нах региона.

Таковы основные положения Астанинской ини-циативы.

Программа партнерства по ее реализации, по нашему мнению, должна быть направлена на дости-жение следующих целей:

1) укрепление межрегионального сотрудни- чества для содействия экологически устойчивому экономическому или «зеленому» росту, в качестве одной из предпосылок для достижения Целей разви-тия тысячелетия;

2) поощрение совместных исследований по раз-работке и применению стратегий и инструментов «зеленого» роста, включая экологически безопасные технологии и доступ к ним;

3) продвижение сетей по обмену знаниями, опы-том и результатами, извлеченными из уроков в рам-ках проектов, связанных с устойчивым развитием;

4) расширение технической помощи и обмена информацией и опытом в области «зеленой» эконо-мики и международной торговли;

5) внедрение низкоуглеродного развития, вклю-чая вопросы «зеленого» роста в контексте мировых тенденций, разработку договоров по изменению кли-мата;

6) эко-эффективное использование природных ресурсов и инвестиций в экосистемные услуги.

Мы призываем страны-доноры, соответствую-щие органы и учреждения Организации Объединен-ных Наций, Экономическую и социальную комиссию Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона ООН и Европей-скую экономическую комиссию ООН в частности, а также многосторонние финансовые учреждения, другие межправительственные структуры, частный сектор, неправительственные организации и граж-данское общество стать активными партнерами Астанинской инициативы «Зеленый мост» для реше-ния наиболее значимых экологических проблем сов-ременного общества.

Мы призываем данный форум поддержать пред-ставление Программы партнерства по реализации инициативы Астаны «Зеленый мост» на 7-ой Конфе-ренции министров «Окружающая среда для Европы», которая состоится в г. Астана, Республика Казахстан, 21-23 сентября 2011 г.

Со своей стороны мы готовы:- представить Астанинскую инициативу «Зеле-

ный мост» на заседании Комитета ЕЭК ООН по эко-логической политике (24-27 мая 2011 г., Женева);

- обеспечить финансовую поддержку созданно-го в Казахстане офиса «Зеленый мост» и придания офису статуса международной организации;

- обеспечить экспертную и материально- техническую помощь по разработке Программы партнерства «Зеленый мост».

Желаю участникам сессии плодотворной работы.Благодарю за внимание!

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ladies and gentlemen!

Let me welcome the participants of the session “Green Growth - the Prospects of Post-Kyoto.

Over the past years we have been able to handle a significant part of the most pressing environmental problems. We voluntarily closed the nuclear testing ground, setting an example for a safer world. Together with neighboring countries, we were able to collaborate on cross-border basin of the Aral and Caspian Seas.

We have restored the Northern Aral Sea in the interests of the population and ecology. In a challenging period of the state formation, we have rehabilitated and minimized the effects of many “historical” pollution and depressed areas, which were accumulated over decades.

Today, the most acute problem for the world community is the deepening of the global energy crisis and the growing threat of adverse climate change on the planet. Humanity with increasing intensity continues to use traditional natural resources such as oil, gas, coal and uranium, which currently meet 85% of world energy needs.

Like many other countries, Kazakhstan desperately feels the adverse effects of climate change, increasing threats of environmental catastrophes and anomalies.

Most sectors of the economy of Kazakhstan is characterized by high energy consumption. Increasing contribution to greenhouse gases and the oil and gas sector, which is associated with both extraction and transportation of hydrocarbons.

In Kazakhstan, the use of outdated technologies based on coal in industrial production and for power generation are the main causes of air pollution. We occupy one of the first places on the carbon intensity of the economy and 71 place in terms of GDP. In this connection, there is a lot of work to change these positions.

In the country there are significant technical provisions for the implementation of measures to improve the efficiency of energy use.

One of the mechanisms for reducing the emissions is greenhouse gases trade. Kazakhstan started the process of creating internal carbon market, which in future must be connected to an international carbon trading platform. This work is carried out jointly with the JSC “Commodity Exchange “Eurasian Trade System”.

All users of natural resources had an inventory of natural resources of greenhouse gases. Now for

each company the quota of greenhouse gases will be determined. As the base for the users of natural resources will be accepted the year of 2008.

Enterprises, which reduced the greenhouse gas emissions, could sell savings quotas on the carbon market. Those who exceeded the quota, will be forced to either pay large fines or buy quotas for the carbon market. In the European Union in the Declaration a fine of 100 euro per 1 ton of CO2-equivalent was recorded, and the cost of one ton on the market varies from 10 to 30 euros. It is more advantageous to implement efficient technologies and to obtain a double profit.

Our ministry works out the calculation methodology of emissions and captures the volume of businesses. For this the inventory data is recorded in the state cadastre.

Now the necessary regulatory framework is created: the MEP conducts the implementation of certain provisions of the UNFCCC and the KP for the start of trading. A number of regulations governing the preparation period of receiving a document will be adopted, the certification itself and greenhouse gases trade.

We have held talks with a joint mission of IDB Clean Technology Fund (CTF), consisting of representatives from the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation. For Kazakhstan, the Clean Technology Fund will provide funding for programs / projects on clean technologies - 1,010 million U.S. dollars in 3 areas:

Development of renewable energy - 341 million U.S. dollars;

Modernization of district heating systems - 505 million U.S. dollars;

Sustainable energy financing through financial institutions - 101 million U.S. dollars.

These funds have already started projects on reconstruction of heat supply in Pavlodar and Petropavlovsk, as well as construction waste recycling plant in Aktau. On the next step there are other regional centers of Kazakhstan. Enterprises not only receive a grant from the Clean Technology Fund, up to 15%, but also they are investing in the reconstruction of their money and take a preferential loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Kazakhstan, like most countries in the world, took on voluntary commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 by 15% compared with a baseline of 1992 and 2050 by 25%. Therefore, among the government programs the program

WElCOME SPEECH TO THE GUESTS AND PARTICIPANTS OF THE SESSION “GREEN GROWTH – PROSPECTS OF POST-KYOTO”

By Nurgali AshimMinister of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan

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“Zhasyl Damu” (“Green development”) is particularly important.

Progress towards low carbon development requires us to communicate the strategic goals of the conditions of real life. The achievement of significant and cost-effective emission reductions beyond 2012 will require a combination of different tools and measures - political, economic and technological.

During the transition to a low carbon economy, the country will continue to pursue a socially oriented policy aimed at acceleration of GDP growth to improve living standards and convergence with developed countries in terms of life.

The international financial crisis stimulates the country to accelerated implementation of plan to further modernize the economy and the implementation of employment strategies to ensure post-crisis development. The “Zhasyl Damu” Program includes reconstruction and improvement of municipal services, upgrade social infrastructure, particularly schools and hospitals and radical modernization of the national economy.

The country would continue financing and realization of promising investment projects in oil refining complex, construction of hydropower plants and reconstruction of existing thermal power plants.

We have banned the burning of associated gas during oil production, and in significant volumes will pump it back into the depths.

Without any doubt, the choice of low-carbon development path would be a critical point for future development in Kazakhstan. Low carbon or “green growth” economy will allow the country to cut emissions of greenhouse gases and other harmful substances, reducing environmental pollution.

Last year, in Astana, the Republic of Kazakhstan put forward at the Conference of the Initiative “Green Bridge” - Astana initiative”, as further development of the Seoul Initiative “Green Growth”.

In deciding on the nomination of the Astana initiative, we were guided by the conviction that cooperation between Europe, Asia and the Pacific will only give positive results and the additional benefits of the regional programs.

The exchange of best practices, experiences, creation of mechanisms for the transfer of clean technologies, joint investment and demonstration projects for the transition to a green economy and conservation of common ecosystems - it is not a complete list of opportunities for such cooperation.

The initiative also involves the full participation of the private sector, international organizations and civil society, as sustainable development issues require the involvement of all parties.

Kazakhstan, being at the crossroads of different cultures, in the heart of the Eurasian continent, which has shared transboundary ecosystems and with European and Asian countries put forward the initiative of the

“Green Bridge”, as the need to strengthen cooperation in modern conditions.

We have created in Astana the interregional and intersectoral office “Green Bridge”, which in turn will support the development of the Special Partnership Program between the two regions - Europe, Asia and the Pacific region – with the emphasis on aquatic ecosystems and climate change.

The Astana initiative “Green Bridge” that promotes joint efforts of the Asia-Pacific and pan-European region can be - and we stake hopes on it - another factor of global environmental security.

In addition, there is a need for dissemination of best practices in areas such as:

improvement of legislation, current economic and methodological tools in the management of environmental protection and development;

development of mechanisms for technology transfer and green investment from developed countries for the conservation of ecosystems of Asia and the Pacific;

strengthening intra-regional cooperation for the implementation of policies and “greening” programs of economic growth.

The country is committed to information and expertise and methodological support of the two thematic areas:

1. eco-efficient use of water resources; 2. low-carbon economy and adaptation to climate

change. The relevance of these topics for the region does

not require further justification - they are fully responsible and the theme of our Forum and the concept of “green” growth. We believe that discussion of these issues will be most in demand in the region.

These are the main provisions of the Astana initiative.

The partnership program for its implementation, in our opinion, should be aimed at achieving the following goals:

1) strengthening of regional cooperation to promote environmentally sustainable economic and “green” growth, as a prerequisite for achieving the Millennium Development Goals;

2) promoting joint research to develop and implement strategies and tools for the “green” growth, including environmentally sound technologies and access to them;

3) promotion of networks for sharing knowledge, experience and results, lessons learned from the projects related to sustainable development;

4) extension of technical assistance and exchange of information and experience in the field of green economics and international trade;

5) introduction of low-carbon development, including “green” growth in the context of global trends, the development of treaties on climate change;

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6) eco-efficient use of natural resources and investment in ecosystem services.

We call on donor countries, relevant organs and agencies of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission of Asia and the Pacific UN Economic Commission for Europe in in particular, as well as multilateral financial institutions, other intergovernmental bodies, the private sector, NGOs and civil society to become active partners in Astana initiative “Green Bridge” to address the most significant environmental problems of modern society.

We urge this forum to support the presentation of the Partnership Program to implement the initiatives of Astana “Green Bridge” at the 7th Ministerial Conference

“Environment for Europe” held in Astana, Kazakhstan, on September 21-23, 2011.

For our part we are committed to: - submit the Astana initiative “Green Bridge” at the

meeting of the UNECE Committee on Environmental Policy (24-27 May 2011, Geneva);

- provide financial support to set up office in Kazakhstan, “Green Bridge” and giving the office the status of an international organization;

- provide expertise and logistical assistance for the development of the Partnership Program “Green Bridge”.

I wish the participants in the productive work. Thank you for your attention!

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Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, good day to you! I apologize that I can’t come personally to be with you on this extremely important occasion and to be with you during this meeting which, I am sure, is gonna come up with a large number of directions and suggestions for change that we need to bring about. But I’m certainly very grateful that I have this opportunity to say a

few words and convey some ideas and thoughts to you which, I hope, will be of some value.

I’m essentially going to rely on the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. And I want to emphasize a few important findingsthat we came up with which clearly give us the basis for considering low-carbon path of growth in the future.

One of the most important and profound findings that we came up with is that warming of the climate systemis unequivocal, and therefore there is really no room for scientific doubt on the fact that the Earth is warming, and the climate of the Earth is changing. We also found that it is very likely that most of the warming that has taken place since the middle of the last century is the result of increase in the emissions, and therefore of concentration of greenhouse gases. Now let me also remind you that when we use the term “very likely”, it means that the probability of this statement holding is more that 90%. And may I also say that of greenhouse gases that we have in the atmosphere, the most dominant – by far – is carbon dioxide. And therefore, we have to bring about reduction in carbon dioxide, if we want to stabilize the concentration of gases, these greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Why must we bring about a reduction? Well, simply because otherwise the impacts of climate change are going to be largely negative and will cause very serious problems for human society.

What are the kinds of impacts that are taking place as a result of climate change? Well, firstly, we know

that floods, droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation events are increasing both in frequency and intensity. And if we don’t mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases, the frequency and intensity of these extreme events will become even more severe. So that’s something which we have to keep in mind.

We also know that sea level rise will pose a major threat to several parts of the world, particularly the small island states and low-lying coastal areas. Now the sea level rise during the 20th century has amounted to about 17 centimeters, and if we don’t bring about stabilization of the concentration of these greenhouse gases, then sea level will rise even faster and to a much greater extent in the future. As a matter of fact, there is a certain inertia in the system, as a result of it even if we are able to stabilize the concentration of gases in the atmosphere, sea level rise will continue for decades and perhaps, hundreds of years. But we need to limit that increase because otherwise it would cause a very serious threat to several parts of the world.

The impacts of climate change on agriculture are likely to be negative, and there is already growing evidence that some crops like wheat and rice and others are as a result of climate change becoming much lower in terms of yields already. And if climate change continues, these impacts will become progressively more serious.

Similarly, the impacts on water availability are likely to be negative in most parts of the world, and Central Asia in particular is very vulnerable, so is South Asia. We have to make sure that the already seen problems of water stress in several parts of the world don’t get compounded as a result of the impacts of climate change.

The effect of climate change on human health will also be largely negative such as, for instance due to floods, droughts, heat waves, we will have many more deaths and much higher morbidity, but also there will be an increase in diarrheal disease, there will be an increase in cholera and largely because of the impacts of climate change an increase in vector-borne diseases as well.

So overall we have to do something to minimize these impacts of climate change which are likely to become progressively negative if we don’t do something about the problem. And therefore we have to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases. And this means that we have to come up with the structure of the economy which minimizes the emissions of carbon dioxide in particular or, in other words, we have to find a means

TRANSCRIPT OF THE VIDEO MESSAGE TO THE PARTICIPANTS OF THE SESSION «GREEN GROWTH - PROSPECTS OF POST-KYOTO»

By Rajendra PachauriNobel Peace Prize Winner 2007, Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), India

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by which growth takes place in a manner that we emit the least amount (if possible, even negative amounts of carbon dioxide in the future). And this will involve several actions. Well, firstly, on the energy supply side we will have to make sure that we move to a greater use of renewable sources of energy and those sources of energy which are low in carbon content. On the consumption side we have to make sure that we create infrastructure, let us say for transportation, for buildings that is very low in the consumption of energy. And this is possible because all these technologies we have assessed are either available or likely to be available in a short period of time on a commercial basis. Of course, if we are to develop technologies for the future, we would need a package of policies that provide incentives and disincentives and enabling conditions by which new technologies can be developed. So overall, we have to make sure that there is a price on carbon because if we place a price on carbon, then there will be an incentive for every sector of the economy both on the production and on the consumption end to be able to bring about preference for low-carbon products, low-carbon sources of energy and essentially lead to an economy that is low in carbon intensity.

May I also say that it is important for us to change our lifestyles because our lifestyles are contributing to this intensity of carbon emissions. And how can we bring about a change? Well, firstly, in our own lives we have to make sure that we use efficient lighting systems that when we carry out space heating and cooling we do so in a manner that minimizes the consumption of energy, that we keep temperatures at a level that just gives us adequate comfort and, for instance, often you go to a hotel room and you find that the room is freezing such that you have to cover yourself with more than one blanket to be able to feel comfortable. I think we have to use public transport on a much greater scale and as far as possible use walking and cycling modes of

transportation. So I think these are choices that we have to make in our real lives which essentially spell a shift in consumption patterns and lifestyles.

And it is critical and imperative that every stakeholder in society is involved in this effort. Governments, of course, will have to create the policy framework that leads to a low-carbon future, businesses will have to see that they use energy as efficiently as possible and adopt those forms of energy which are low in carbon intensity and bring about improvements in the efficiency of processes by which we will reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide and, of course, most importantly, civil society will have to get very active in convincing people to adopt a low-carbon path of development, to alter their lifestyles, to contribute to such an objective. So I think our challenge is very clear, and I think it is very important for us to see that firstly, that we have a package of policy measures that bring about a shift in reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, and secondly, we ensure that every stakeholder in society is involved including government not only at the federal or the central level but right down to the grassroots level, and that businesses are involved, that people and society at large are involved, research and academic institutions are involved, and I think we therefore need an unprecedented partnership between all the stakeholders, and that’s really the challenge before us. And if we don’t accept this challenge, then clearly generations to come are going to find it very difficult to be able to meet and live with the impacts of climate change which will become progressively more serious.

So thank you very much for giving me this opportunity and I hope you have a wonderful conference and I will look forward to an opportunity to travel to Kazakhstan some time in the future. The one time I went was a memorable occasion and I hope I can repeat that and that you’ll give me an opportunity to do so in the future.

Thank you very much.

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The Asian and Pacific region is vulnerable to multiple crises that cannot be addressed by the current development paradigm. While substantial emphasis was placed on the financial and economic crisis, the resource and ecological crises have not been properly addressed. If the region is to continue its rapid growth, it cannot simply focus on quantity of growth, maximizing GDP and production. It has to focus on improving the economic, social and ecological quality of growth.

Green Growth is a strategy of economic system change that can make investment in ecological resources and services a driver of economic development. Fundamental, rather than incremental changes are needed – governments must therefore take the lead in re-orienting both the “visible” and the “invisible” economic infrastructure, which requires strong political leadership and commitment with vision and conviction.

Green growth offers greater potential for emerging and developing economies, presenting the unique opportunity for leapfrogging to ecologically efficient, inclusive and sustainable growth without repeating

the conventional unsustainable development path undertaken by already developed countries.

Certain pro-poor green growth approaches often bring poverty reduction benefits; however, green growth cannot be expected to provide the ultimate solution to poverty, since it is a strategy to address the root causes for trade-offs between environmental sustainability and economic growth. To maximize the benefits of such approaches appropriate policies addressing the root causes for poverty and inequality are needed.

Two gaps need to be addressed by the governments to jump-start the Green Growth: (1) the time gap between short term costs and long term benefits, and (2) the price gap between market prices and ecological prices. Governments can lead the process through green fiscal packages, such as the green stimulus packages issued by many governments in the wake of the financial crisis. Governments’ clear vision of the system change needs to be strategically communicated to increase public awareness of the economic, social and environmental benefits from sustainable consumption and production patterns.

So, how to green the economy without increasing the burden on the economic system and damaging economic growth is a very critical and relevant concern. Internalizing the ecological costs of natural resources extraction and use, as well as the cost for their regeneration into the market prices and for pollution is an important tool for releasing valuable financial resources locked in in-efficient and at times environmentally harmful activities through governmental subsidies.

Environmental Tax Reform (ETR)/Environmental Fiscal Reform (EFR), which refer to a wide spectrum of fiscal pricing measures, offer governments the instruments for correcting these price signals and redirecting their economies to more sustainable paths that will induce economic growth, help tackling poverty and improve environmental quality.

Environmental Tax reform (ETR) is essentially a structuring of the tax system whereby the tax base is shifted from traditional taxes, such as those based around labour, to taxes that have environmental relevance, for example natural resources extraction/use and pollution. What makes ETR fundamentally different from any other

REAlIZING DOUBlE DIVIDEND FROM ECO-TAX REFORM TO PROMOTE GREEN GROWTH

By Rae Kwong Chung Director of the Environment and Development Division, ESCAP Aneta Nikolova, D. Eng.Environment and Development Division, ESCAP

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economic or market instruments, and more over from the usual environmental tax, is the revenue neutrality: transferring the burden of taxes away from “goods” (labour and savings) and move towards the “bads” (waste and pollution) while having a net-zero increase in the level of taxation on the economy. Applying the revenue neutrality as an integral principle of using tax instruments has the potential to improve competitiveness of those companies that have high-level of eco- and resource efficiency and low level of resource input intensity by reducing their overall tax burden and freeing–up capital for further investments relevant technical innovations.

At the same time, to address the distortions of the markets, Environmental Fiscal Reform (EFR) has been introduced to redirect subsidies from environmentally damaging activities and products to environmentally friendly ones. Subsidies can be damaging towards the environment when they cause higher degree of consumption or production, and result in extraction of natural resources at unsustainable levels, consequently increasing pollution, harmful emissions and waste. Eliminating environmentally harmful subsidies can have major positive influence on revenue accumulation, resulting in a net increase in unallocated budget.

Combined application of carefully designed and planned ETR/EFR tools create mechanisms for recycling newly generated revenue from environmental taxes based on the double dividend principle, which comprises revenue neutral restructuring of the tax system, whereby green taxes are increased in proportion to a decrease in traditional taxes (e.g. income tax). This could improve the environmental quality of growth (first dividend), and would also reduce distortion, income repressiveness of the tax system (second dividend). Simulations through economic modeling, as well as recent experiences in Europe, Asia and the Pacific, and other regions suggest that there are multiple effects of environmental taxes, including improved competitiveness of firms, considerable reduction of levels of distortions of the economy and increased/new employment.

Mobilization of revenue from environmental taxation and scaling back of harmful subsidies can greatly strengthen fiscal solvency particularly for developing countries whose budgets are overstrained in the struggle to meet the increasing needs of their citizens. In 2008, Indonesia reduced its petroleum subsidies, leading to a fuel price increase of 28,7%. The removal of subsidies a politically sensitive issue and has in the past led to protests and violence. However, Indonesia diverted the funds from these subsidies to social protection policies and poverty alleviation. This ensured that the disadvantaged could cope with the higher prices, while those who cold afford it were stimulated to use energy more efficiently.

Application of ETR/EFR will drive long-term innovation and resource productivity improvements. Private sector will react directly to the signals form the government and a tax on one input, such as fuel, for example, can create a greater incentive for businesses to shift capital towards investments in fuel efficient technological research. Doing so will help companies hedge their risks in an extremely volatile commodity markets. Fiscal gains could also be directed to restructuring the economy into more industrialized patterns rather than pure exports of natural resources, which will increase their economic resilience.

For fear of losing competitiveness and due to a lack of empirical evidence, countries may find it difficult to initiate certain measures for Green Growth on their own. Since each region has its distinct features and development challenges, the shift towards a green economy can be best pursued when it is collectively done at regional level. Political consensus at the regional or sub-regional level is required on the general framework for a system change to a green economy, while the choice of specific policy options should be left to each country, depending on country specific circumstances and political considerations.

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Глобальный финан-совый кризис ярко проде-монстрировал неустойчи-вость «потребительской» модели экономического роста и поставил перед мировым сообществом с особой остротой задачу поиска ее альтернативы. В соответствии с оценкой международных экспер-тов [1] причина кризисных для человечества явле-

ний обусловлена абсолютизацией экономического роста, признание увеличения материального благо-состояния, производства товаров и услуг как важней-ших целей развития и игнорированием человеческо-го и экологического факторов. Об этом красноречиво свидетельствует индикатор «истинных сбережений», рассчитанный по методологии Всемирного Банка и учитывающий утрату природного капитала (вырубка лесов, снижение площади пахотных земель, выбро-сы и др.) и инвестиции в образование и науку [2].

Таблица 1 Истинные сбережения по группе стран за 2009 г.

Страна Скорректированные истинные сбережения

Япония 15,8Германия 12,1Франция 11,4Великобритания 6,9Канада 5,4США 4,1Норвегия 9,2Россия -13,8Казахстан -33.2Польша 7,8Украина 4,1Китай 36,1Индия 20,6

Одной из альтернативных моделей экономичес-кого роста, ориентированной на потребление, яв-ляется модель «Зеленого роста», обеспечивающая экономической рост в условиях сохранения природ-ного капитала.

Концепция «зеленого роста», в качестве про-граммного документа для стран Азиатско-Тихооке-анского региона, была впервые выдвинута на 5-ой Конференции министров окружающей среды стран-членов ЭСКАТО в г. Сеул в 2005 г. В качестве базовых принципов развития были предложены следующие:

- принцип эко-эффективности, предполагаю-щий выбор целей, задач и показателей деятель- ности, всесторонне характеризующих текущую си-туацию и обосновывающих необходимость достиже-ния заданных результатов с учетом эколого-экономи-ческих факторов;

- принцип ресурсосбережения предполагает принятие управленческих решений с учетом сохра-нения всех видов ресурсов, включая природные и человеческие.

- принцип единства, предполагающий охват всех субъектов экономических отношений данного процесса;

- принцип межсекторальности, означаю-щий вовлеченность в процесс принятия решений представителей различных секторов общества - го-сударственных органов, НПО, ученых и бизнес-структур.

Использование совокупности названных принци-пов позволяет заключить, что концепция «Зеленого роста» очень тесно связана с концепцией устойчиво-го развития и ее реализация может рассматриваться в качестве первой стадии перехода к устойчивому раз-витию как на страновом, так и глобальном уровнях.

В соответствии с рекомендациями, полученны-ми в рамках подготовки Первого Национального от-чета по интеграции принципов «зеленого роста» в экономику Республики Казахстан [1] Правительству страны необходимо задействовать следующие меха-низмы:

- реформирование системы бюджетирования посредством внедрения экологических налогов;

- внедрение моделей устойчивого производства и потребления;

- развитие «зеленого бизнеса»;- формирование устойчивой инфраструктуры.Реализация первого механизма - реформиро-

вание системы бюджетирования посредством внедрения экологических налогов позволяет пе-ренести налоговую нагрузку с традиционных видов деятельности на производства, загрязняющие окру-жающую среду. Эта мера, затрагивающая интересы

КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНЫЕ ОСНОВЫ МОДЕЛИ «ЗЕЛЕНОГО РОСТА»

Бахыт Есекина, д.э.н., профессор Директор Высшей Партийной Школы НДП «Нур Отан»

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всех участников экономических отношений от потре-бителей до общественных институтов, позволит ми-нимизировать экологическую нагрузку и, в то же вре-мя обеспечивать экономический рост в параметрах, предусмотренных стратегическим планом.

Основное предназначение внедрения эко- налогов – перераспределение налогового бремени с социально-значимой деятельности (например, за-нятости населения) на деятельность, наносящую вред окружающей среде. Кроме того, перераспре-деление бюджета путем увеличения инвестиций на развитие эколого-безопасных видов деятельности (например, развитие общественного транспорта для снижения использования личного) также является одной из мер по реформированию налоговой систе-мы. Цель состоит не в увеличении, а в более спра-ведливом перераспределении налоговой нагрузки путем принятия эффективных и действенных мер по защите окружающей среды и сохранении природно-го капитала для будущих поколений.

Эко-налоги являются наиболее действенным инструментом создания эффективной, социально- и эколого-ориентированной фискальной системы, главные принципы которой заключаются в интер-нализации издержек производства и потребления и равномерном распределении доходов. Таким обра-зом, внедрение эко-налогов не увеличивает общее налоговое бремя, а способствует его перераспреде-лению внутри общества и в то же время позволяет снизить экологический ущерб природе.

Следующим механизмом внедрения «зелено-го роста» является внедрение моделей устойчивого производства и потребления. Как известно, методы производства и потребления являются основными двигателями экономики любого типа и, соответствен-но, фактически определяют качество экономическо-го роста. Разработка регулирующих рамок и стандар-тов, совмещённых со сбалансированными ценами на сырьевые материалы, может обусловить заинте-ресованность производителей в более чистом, эко-логически устойчивом процессе производства.

Это направление «зеленого роста» включает в себя такие инструменты, как экологически чистые государственные закупки; оценку жизненного цик-ла товаров и управление, основанное на спросе, учитывающем тенденции потребления; стимулиро-вание устойчивого использования ресурсов и по-вышения интереса к чистому производству посред-ством уменьшения или повторного использования и переработки отходов. Уровень использования сырья, выбросы в атмосферу при производстве товаров и услуг являются решающими факторами охраны окружающей среды. Нагрузка на окружающую среду характерна для роста потребления, особенно в раз-вивающихся странах, являющихся двигателями ми-ровой экономики.

С этим механизмом «зеленого роста» тесно свя-зано развитие «зеленого бизнеса», который пред-полагает трансформацию деловой активности в сторону большего использования возобновляемых природных ресурсов, выпуск экологически чистой продукции , использования чистых технологий и про-ведения корпоративных стратегий в целях обеспе-чения ресурсосбережения. Как правило, компании, реализующие политику «зеленого бизнеса» имеют положительный имидж на мировых рынках, их про-дукция отличается высокой инновационностью и со-ответственно конкурентоспособностью.

Социальные сети, которые поддерживают уро-вень устойчивости бизнеса, стремительно развива-ясь, находят поддержку у частных и общественных институтов, таких, как банки, государственные прог-раммы по устойчивости развития. Данная поддержка обеспечивает не только снижение уровня бедности, но и сохранение окружающей среды.

В странах Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона бизнес-устойчивые стратегии развиваются, главным образом, благодаря давлению со стороны прави-тельств, необходимости соответствовать корпора-тивным интересам и возрастающей потребности в необходимости информирования больших групп на-селения, включая потребителей, неправительствен-ных организаций и др.

Международный опыт свидетельствует, что для многих кампаний, особенно в условиях присоеди-нения к ВТО, развитие «зеленого бизнеса» - это успешная рыночная стратегия, позволяющая пред-ставителям бизнеса повысить свою конкурентоспо-собность путем получения налоговых льгот и смяг-чения административных барьеров путем внедрения экологически чистых технологий и производств и вы-пуска экологически чистой продукции.

Практически все организации (коммерческие, некоммерческие, государственные органы и др.) сталкиваются с аналогичными проблемами в реали-зации политики «зеленого бизнеса», которые могут быть представлены, как:

- распределение капитала между краткосроч-ным получением прибыли и долгосрочными инвести-циями для развития;

- создание организационной структуры, которая координирует и стимулирует ведение «зеленого биз-неса» и способствует достижению устойчивости;

- убеждение собственников бизнеса, включая держателей акций и работодателей, что «зеленые стратегии» являются решающими для будущих по-колений и базируются на реальной оценке будущего;

- развитие стратегий устойчивости, включая мо-ниторинг;

- создание системы менеджмента, которая обес-печивает большую эффективность, чем затраты на развитие и применение услуг аудита и др.

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В целом, «зеленый» бизнес и устойчивое пот-ребление являются основополагающими элемента-ми в повышении благосостояния населения и защи-ты окружающей среды.

Немаловажным инструментом «зеленого роста» является формирование устойчивой инфраструк-туры, позволяющей рационально использовать при-родные ресурсы для того, чтобы будущие поколения не испытывали недостатка в данном ресурсе. Так, процессы урбанизации не всегда сопровождают-ся соответствующим развитием инфраструктуры, в то время как инвестиции в инфраструктуру могут обеспечить устойчивость окружающей среды и, как следствие, способствовать достижению устойчиво-сти экономики.

Мировой опыт свидетельствует, что эколого-ориентированное строительство зданий позволяет снизить затраты энергетических и водных ресурсов более чем на 30 % за весь период функционирова-ния данного объекта. Несмотря на это, при развитии инфраструктуры, в частности, в Казахстане, не учи-тываются потенциальные преимущества использо-вания принципов эко-эффективности. Вместе с тем, затраты на создание устойчивой инфраструктуры позволят повысить конкурентоспособность на миро-

вом рынке путем снижения потребления ресурсов (энергии, воды, земли и сырья) и выбросов загряз-няющих веществ (например, СО

2, SO

2).

Формирование устойчивых инфраструктур поз-воляет минимизировать использование ресурсов и уделить особое внимание экологическим аспектам в жизненном цикле товаров и услуг; способствовать сохранению целостности экосистемы; не усугублять воздействие антропогенных факторов, таких как из-менение климата и появление озоновых дыр; спо-собствовать производству экономически полезных товаров и услуг; максимизировать долгосрочный экономический рост во всех направлениях развития; быть социально-ориентированной и оцениваемой на каждой стадии развития и принимаемой и поддержи-ваемой населением.

Таким образом, основной задачей внедрения политики «зеленого роста» является подготовка к выходу на траекторию устойчивого развития нацио-нальной экономики, достижение которого требует в современных условиях незамедлительного отказа от эксплуатации природных ресурсов и поиска более прогрессивных и инновационных моделей хозяй-ствования.

Литература:

1. Навстречу «зеленой» экономике. Доклад для представителей властных структур. ЮНЕП,2010, 43с. 2. Национальный доклад по достижению ЦРТ в России, под ред. С.Н. Бобылева, 2010.3. Национальный отчет по интеграции принципов «зеленого роста» в Республике Казахстан, под. ред. Б.К. Есекиной, 2010, 102с.

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The global financial crisis has clearly demonstrated the instability of the “consumer” model of economic growth and put before the world community especially acute problem of finding an alternative model. In accordance with the assessment of international experts / 1 / reason for the crisis caused by human phenomena - absolutisation of economic growth, increasing recognition of the economic well-being, the production of goods and services as a critical development goals, and disregard of human and environmental factors. This is expressively demonstrated by “Genuine savings” indicator, calculated on the method of World Bank and taking into account the loss of natural capital (deforestation, reduction of arable land, emissions, etc.) and investments in education and science / 2 /.

Table 1Genuine savings for the group of countries for2009

Country Adjusted Genuine savings

Japan 15,8Germany 12,1France 11,4United Kingdom 6,9Canada 5,4USA 4,1Norway 9,2Russia -13,8Kazakhstan -33.2Poland 7,8Ukraine 4,1China 36,1India 20,6

One of the alternative models of economic growth, consumption-oriented model is the “Green Growth”, which provides economical growth while preserving natural capital.

The concept of “Green Growth” as a programmatic document for the Asia-Pacific region was first unveiled at the 5th Conference of Environment Ministers of ESCAP member in Seoul in 2005.

As a basic principle of the development have been offered follows:

- the principle of eco-efficiency, involves the selection of goals, objectives and performance indicators to fully characterize the current situation and justifying necessity to achieve desired results, taking into account environmental and economic factors;

- the resources saving principle requires acceptance of administrative decisions taking into account the

conservation of all resources, including natural and human.

-the principle of unity, coverage of all economic agents in this process;

-the principle of inter-sectorality, indicating the involvement in decision-making representatives from various sectors of society - government, NGOs, academics and business structures.

Using in combination of these principles, we can conclude that the concept of “Green Growth” is very closely linked with the concept of sustainable development and its implementation can be considered as the first stage of transition to sustainable development at both country and global levels.

In accordance with the recommendations, which received due to preparation of the First National Report on the integration of the principles of “Green Growth” in the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan /1/ Government, should use the following mechanisms:

1. reform of the budgeting system through the introduction of environmental taxes;

2. introduction of sustainable production and consumption;

3. development of “green business”;4. formation of a stable infrastructure.

Implementation of the first mechanism - the reform of the budgeting system through the introduction of environmental taxes allows us to transfer the tax burden away from traditional activities to the polluting manufactures. This measure affecting the interests of all participants in the economic relations from consumer to public institutions, will help minimize the environmental burden and at the same time ensure economic growth in the parameters of the strategic plan.

The main purpose of introducing eco-taxes - redistribution of the tax burden from socially significant activities (eg, employment) to activities that are harmful to the environment. In addition, the redistribution of the budget through increased investment in the development of eco-safe activities (eg, development of public transport to reduce using of personal) is also one of the measures to reform the tax system. The goal is not to increase, but equitable redistribution of the tax burden through effective and efficient measures for environmental protection and conservation of natural capital for future generations.

Eco-taxes are the most effective tool for creating effective social and environmental-oriented fiscal system, the main principles of which are internalization the costs of production and consumption, and equal distribution of income. Thus, the introduction of eco-tax does not increase the overall tax burden, but facilitates

CONCEPTUAl BASES OF «GREEN GROWTH » MODEl

By Bakhyt Yessekina, Doctor of Economic Sciences, ProfessorDirector of the Higher Party School of PDP”Nur Otan”

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its redistribution within the society and at the same time helps reduce environmental damage to nature.

Following mechanism for the implementation of “Green Growth” is the implementation of sustainable production and consumption. As is known, methods of production and consumption are the main economic engines of any type and, therefore, actually determine the quality of economic growth. Development of regulatory frameworks and standards, combined with balanced prices for raw materials, could cause the interest of producers in more than a clean, ecologically sustainable production process.

This direction of “Green Growth” includes such tools as environmentally safe public procurement; life cycle assessment of goods and management, which is based on market, which takes into account the consumption of tendencies; promoting sustainable use of resources and increasing interest in cleaner production through the reduction or reuse and waste recycling. The level of utilization of raw materials, emissions to the atmosphere during production of goods and services are crucial to environmental protection. Burden on the environment is typical to the consumption growth, particularly in developing countries, which are the engines of the global economy.

The mechanism of “Green Growth” is closely related to the development of “green business”, which suggests the transformation of business activity in the direction of greater use of renewable natural resources, the production of environmentally safe products, the use of cleaner technologies and carrying out corporate strategies in order to ensure resource. Generally, the companies that implement a policy of “green business” have a positive image in global markets; their products are notable for highly innovations and accordingly competitiveness.

Social systems which support the level of business stability are rapidly developing and seeking the support from private and public institutions such as banks, government programs for sustainable development. Such kind of support provides not only the reduction of poverty level, but also the conservation of the environment.

In the countries of Asia-Pacific region the business sustainable strategies are mainly developing due to pressure from the government, necessity to comply with corporate interests and the increasing need, who must inform large groups of people, including consumers, NGOs and etc.

International experience indicates that for many campaigns, especially in the conditions of accession to the WTO, the development of “green business” is a successful marketing strategy, which allows to business community to increase its competitiveness through tax benefits and reducing the administrative barriers through the introduction of cleaner technologies and production and release of environmentally safe products.

Almost all the organizations (commercial, nonprofit, governmental, etc.) face with similar problems in implementing the policy of “green business”, which can be represented as:

- capital distribution between short-termed profit making and long-termed investment for development;

- creating an organizational structure, which coordinates and promotes the maintenance of “green business “ and contributes the achieving to sustainability;

- urge of business owners, including shareholders and employers, that the “green strategies” are crucial for future generations and are based on real assessment of the future;

- developing of sustainability strategies, including monitoring;

- creating management system, which provides a greater efficiency than the expenses for development and application of audit services and etc.

Generally, the “green business” and sustainable consumption are fundamental elements in improving human welfare and environmental protection.

An important tool for “Green Growth” is the formation of a sustainable development, which allows the use of natural resources for future generations wouldn’t have a shortage of this resource.

Thus, urbanization processes are not always accompanied by a corresponding development of infrastructure, while investments into infrastructure can ensure the environmental sustainability, and, consequently, contribute to the economy stability.

The world experience shows that the ecological-oriented constructions of buildings reduce the expenses of energy and water recourses more than on 30% over the entire period of the facility operation. Despite of potential benefits of eco-efficiency principles using are not taken into account under infrastructure development, particularly in Kazakhstan. However, the costs of sustainable infrastructure creating would increase the competitiveness in the global market by reducing consumption of resources (energy, water, land and raw materials) and emissions (e.g. CO

2, SO

2).

The formation of sustainable infrastructure allows minimizing the use of resources and focusing on environmental aspects in the life cycle of goods and services; to promote the conservation of ecosystem integrity; not to exacerbate the impact of anthropogenic factors such as climate changes and the emergence of ozone holes; to contribute the production of economically valuable goods and services; maximize economic long-termed growth in all areas of development; to be socially-oriented and evaluated at each stage of development, received and maintained by the public.

Thus, the main task of implementing the policy of “Green Growth” is the preparation of entering into the path of sustainable development of national economy, achievement of which requires the immediate rejection of the natural resources exploitation and the search for more progressive and innovative business models.

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To bridge and enhance the efforts of European and Asian and Pacific member states to mitigate anthropogenic environmental devastation and climate disruption through Green Growth and Green Economy related activities, an Operational Mechanism (OM) for the Europe-Asia-Pacific “Green Bridge” Partnership Programme (EAP GBPP) of Astana “Green Bridge” Initiative (AGBI)1 has been developed and is hereby proposed. The OM is designed to garner political support and facilitate investments for symmetrical North-South and South-South sustainable development projects, including the research, development and demonstration of eco-efficient technologies, policies, and best practices, as well as investments in ecosystem services at an unprecedented level.

In order to achieve this, the OM proposes to adopt a blend of tried-and-tested as well as unique approaches to managing, financing, and implementing such projects. In the framework of the OM the traditionally known “developed” and “developing” countries are considered as equals since both groups are driven by a common interest to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption.

The OM envisages a symmetrical Green Growth partnership that relies on global “Green Growth Champions” for strategic leadership and examples of best-practice. Through that scheme the OM is supposed to increase the proportion of “green” to “brown” foreign direct investment by establishing a new Green FDI ratio, as well as to provide for transparent and mutually beneficial monitoring and evaluation using a Green Growth Index.

The Operational Mechanism incorporates three structural components: Governance, Funding, and Implementation. The innovative approaches embedded in the OM include:

• the EAP GBPP member-states will become responsible shareholders of the Programme and as such will be solely eligible to apply for and to entertain a controlling interest over the Programme projects. Equal shareholding will mean equal distribution of the risks as well;

• an open governance model and an independent Oversight Committee will guarantee extremely high standards of transparency and accountability;

1 To review the official MCED-6 AGBI document, please visit the MCED-6 website: http://www.unescap.org/esd/mced6/documents/final_documents.asp To review the GBPP proposal for the CEP meeting of the ECE, please visit the CEP website:http://www.unece.org/env/cep/2011SpecialSessionMay.html

• equal treatment of developed and developing countries as recipients of support for Green Growth-oriented projects will create opportunity to transcend beyond traditional “donor-recipient” relationships.

The Operational Mechanism is designed to create favorable conditions to support implementation of both not-for-profit and potentially-profitable sustainable development projects, which will be aimed at reforming the “invisible” and “visible” economic structures that affect the way we produce and consume goods and services respectively.

The funding and implementation processes of the Europe-Asia-Pacific “Green Bridge” Partnership Programme (EAP GBPP) will differentiate between not-for-profit projects (aimed at providing both material and immaterial benefits to their recipients but unlikely to become financially self-sustaining or profitable on their own) or potentially-profitable projects (designed to be able to recover any initial investments made and service any debts incurred, and later capable of earning a profit for recipients should they so desire.)

• Not-for-profit projects will be funded through a combination of non-earmarked tax-deductible private sector donations, government grants, recycled funding from potentially-profitable EAP GBPP projects, as well as parallel and in-kind financial contributions.

• Potentially-profitable projects will be funded through a combination of non-earmarked tax-deductible private sector donations, government grants, zero-interest loans from internal and external donors, as well as parallel and in-kind financing. These projects will be, and implemented by “project-specific cooperative social enterprises”.

The Operational Mechanism has been developed with a technical assistance of ESCAP to respond the request of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of Republic of Kazakhstan, and will be discussed during launching of the EAP GBPP to be held on 4-5 May 2011 in Astana, Kazakhstan. After further revisions, it will be presented at the Committee on the Environmental Policy of the ECE on 17 May 2011 in Geneva, and is expected to be transmitted at the 7th “Environment for Europe” Ministerial Conference to be held from 22 to 23 September 2011 in Astana, Kazakhstan. The first potential participating countries will have an opportunity to sign the intentions of interest to become stakeholders of the EAP GBPP at the ESCAP 2nd Committee on Environment and Development (CED-2) to be held from 9 to 11 November 2011 in Bangkok, Thailand and to commence its operations from 2012 onwards.

EUROPE-ASIA-PACIFIC “GREEN BRIDGE” PARTNERSHIP PROGRAMME (EAP GBPP) OF ASTANA “GREEN BRIDGE” INITIATIVE (AGBI): OPERATIONAl MECHANISM (OM)

By Aida KarazhanovaEnvironmental Affairs Officer, ESCAPJustin AlickIntern, EDPS, ESCAP

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China Council for International Investment Promotion-(CCIIP) is a national investment promotion organization authorized by the State Council, registered with Ministry of Civil Affairs and supervised by Ministry of Commerce. The objectives of CCIIP are to synergize nationwide resources and capacities in investment promotion, and provide a unified platform for China’s investment promotion; promote China’s participation in regional integration, Implement the «introducing FDI», «going global» two-way investment promotion strategies; for foreign investment and Chinese enterprises to overseas investment, participate in international economic and technical cooperation, provide effective services and so on.

CCIIP consists of five secondary branches, with 332 members at present. CCIIP has a professional working team, and a consulting group composed of prestigious experts in related fields. The council has established strategic cooperative partnership with many international organizations, associations, and investment promotion agencies. With excellent creative, coordinative and implementive ability and resources from both home and abroad, CCIIP has become an energetic and promising power in China’s investment promotion field.

China-Brazil Business Council (CBBC) and China-Chile Business Council (CCBC) are CCIIP’s secondary branches, the members of which consist of nearly 30 large and medium state-owned enterprises and some of powerful private enterprises, industry covers energy, mining, agriculture, telecommunications, infrastructure, finance, general trading and other fields. CBBC and CCBC are the important force to promote the «going global» of Chinese enterprises.

Based on CBBC and CCBC, CCIIP plans and organizes activities actively around Latin America, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and other favorite

investment regions, providing important opportunities for Chinese enterprises to launch overseas investment and cooperation.

CCIIP co-hosted “China Eurasia Investment Forum” on October, 2009, and discuss with more than 200 guests from Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and other countries about the new opportunities for investment and development of Central Asia and Eastern Europe. To strengthen international cooperation in investment promotion, at the invitation of UNCTAD, CCIIP invited more than 30 executives from Chinese member companies to attend «the 2nd World Investment Forum» held in Xiamen, in September, 2010, to discuss about international investment and development, the investment promotion strategies of developing countries, and other issues.

In addition, CCIIP also vigorously encourages the investment promotion agencies in China to carry out cross-regional cooperation, and accomplished a lot of effective work around international investment promotion, low-carbon energy, outsourcing and other new areas and new industries. Some of the brand activities of CCIIP- “International Investment Promotion Forum”, “China Sourcing Summit”, “the Joint Conference of the Federation of Investment Promotion Agencies of China” and “Investment Campaign around China”, etc. have become the highly noted activities in related industries. The «high international and professional standards» are highly evaluated by the government and business community.

In the future, CCIIP will continue to unite our members, actively drive Chinese enterprises to carry out international economic cooperation, make greater contributions to the undertaking of investment promotion in China, and devote ourselves to the stable and healthy development of China’s economy.

FOREIGN EXPERIENCE

By Gengshu Miao President, China Council for International Investment Promotion

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KAZAKHSTAN: lAND OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY INTEllIGENT INVESTOR

By William VealeExecutive Director, US-Kazakhstan Business Association, USA

Prospective investors looking at Kazakhstan see a country with enormous resource potential that is landlocked far from major European and Asian markets, and a country that has only 15-16 million people distributed over a vast territory the size of Western Europe. They see impressive political stability from an enlightened presidential system of government. They see a talented, energetic and well-educated population that is seriously engaged in making the transition from a command economy to an increasingly liberal economic model. But they also see problems created by corruption, unexplained delays in addressing business proposals, and a persistent gap between designs for a preferred future and the implementing steps needed to get there.

While this is a mixed picture, it is one that is ever-trending towards improvement. Transitions necessarily include elements of the old and of the new, and Kazakhstan’s transition is no exception to this pattern of change. Old paradigms, habits, and responses die slowly and it takes time to survey, choose and digest selections from the open menus now available to a former Soviet Republic like Kazakhstan. Indeed, in considering this broad horizon, Kazakhstanis are drawing on their nomadic self-images to bolster their ability to consider and deal with the wide ranges of choices that are now open to them. Literally at the geographic crossroads of Eurasia, Kazakhstan is well-positioned both as a transit corridor between major global markets and as a hub for serving regional markets.

With its hospitable and improving investment climate and its residual customs ties to Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries – and now the new Customs Union, Kazakhstan offers companies an excellent platform for doing business in Central Russia as well as the rest of Central Asia. As trade facilitation efforts intensify in the region, the advantages of Kazakhstan’s location will only become greater. In the era of modern transportation and communications technology, Kazakhstan is turning its land-locked disadvantages into a most favored logistics nexus between the major manufacturing complexes of Europe and Asia. With major infrastructure improvements unfolding, the ancient Silk Road is taking a modern form across the wide steppes of Kazakhstan.

OpportunitiesAn especially important advantage offered by

Kazakhstan is its high-level leadership support for foreign

investors. While domestic political factors occasionally intrude on matters that bear on Kazakhstan’s relative attractiveness to foreign investors, the government has firmly anchored in public policy its commitment to the sanctity of existing contracts. For some time Kazakhstan’s government has shown readiness to listen and dialogue with business through industry or sector trade associations.

Among the specific opportunities developing for investors, the fleshing out of the country’s energy sector offers the most immediate and promising prospects. As the major oil and gas fields at Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan increase production and come on line, there will be enormous opportunities for energy services companies working not only with western majors, but increasingly with Kazakhstani public and private entities. This expansion is measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Already, companies are demonstrating the opportunities that lie in moving downstream from exploration and production to petrochemical processing.

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Alternative energy, such as wind and solar, is also catching on in Kazakhstan, given the government’s foresight in seeking to diversify its economy along sustainable lines.

A bread basket of “virgin” lands in Soviet days, Kazakhstan’s area of next greatest potential after energy lies in its agricultural sector. Now a major grain exporter, Kazakhstan is already the focus of major global manufacturers of agricultural machinery. Food processing, packaging, transporting, and storage are all areas ripe for foreign investors operating at the small and medium-sized level as well as global multinationals.

With the energy sector driving much of the economy and its revenues feeding consumption for a growing middle class, a whole new range of opportunities has been opening up in Kazakhstan. As incomes rise, demand for improved medical services and technology is drawing more attention from health sector firms. A greater need for financial services that support small and medium-sized enterprises is pointing up opportunities for firms that can meet this concern. There is also a need for financial service firms to play a greater role in intermediation between buyers and sellers of financial products. High end consumer goods and services also look to have a bright future. Automobile production, despite the seemingly small market, is also taking hold.

The really big story for the years ahead in Kazakhstan, however, will be in massive efforts to develop its infrastructure to support the growth fed by oil and gas revenues. Kazakhstan has wisely focused on transport and logistics as one key area that warrants government encouragement. Road and rail construction is planned on a massive scale to give the country the east-west routes and connectivity it never had under the Soviets. With this, opportunities for truck stops, roadside services, and the hospitality industry will open. Last but not by any means least, there is a growing electric power shortage in Kazakhstan that is beginning to lead the government to take steps to promote investment in new sources of power generation, both for domestic and regional use.

ChallengesAny society and government transitioning from a

totalitarian command economy to a democratic market economy, as Kazakhstan is intending to do, will face stresses and challenges. The habits of control and the broad definition of what needs to be controlled are persistent, and will take several generations to change. It is not only the habits of leadership but also the habits of the led that need to be revisited, and this takes time. As Kazakhstan makes its intended move away from an organic model of the state towards a truly open and rule of law-based society, business demand for more responsive government can play a key role. In the business sphere, as more and more decentralized decision-making takes place among more and more players, the nature of the demands on government changes. Business

needs timely and extensive attention to issues that have commercial impact on firms. Government needs to understand that business people are most sensitive to changes in reality because their livelihood depends on timely, supple adjustment to the marketplace. These places a premium on government responsiveness, giving impetus to administrative and political reform efforts such as are already being evidenced in Kazakhstan.

A centralized government decision-making system is thus increasingly taxed by the demands of a growing number of entrepreneurs. The fundamental shift that must occur in the transition has to do with the locus of sovereignty: it must slide from the center to the people themselves. Limits may apply in the way popular sovereignty is exercised, but the critical moat that defends this principle is the rule of law and the idea that all authority is exercised by persons who are under the law. Decentralization is one step in this direction as it helps make government more responsive to the demands put on it. Through its announced intention to shift power from its preponderance in the Presidential Administration to the Parliament, and its extensive administrative reforms, Kazakhstan is already on the road in the right direction. Kazakhstan is also making good progress in recognizing that for investors political risk is not just about stability of leadership, but is also concerned with stability of policy. In meeting the immediate demands of nation-building, Kazakhstan has had to make its best steps forward with limited information and advice, and thus revision and improvement of past steps becomes the order of the day. Continuity in policy as well as in personnel assignments remain challenges to be addressed.

While it is bountifully endowed with natural resources, there is wide recognition in Kazakhstan of the importance of human resources, evidenced by its “Bolashak” program. But one of Kazakhstan’s great attractions for investors, its well-educated people stands at risk unless strong measures are taken to protect standards and the credentialing process. Sending students abroad should not become an acceptable “work around” for avoiding the long term reform of the educational system from top to bottom. Further, the initial post-independence surge of humanities, business, and law students now needs to be counterbalanced with greater emphasis on the scientific, engineering, and technical skills needed by Kazakhstan’s rapidly developing economy. Educational reform will thus be critical if Kazakhstan is to meet its diversification goals successfully. The new Nazarbayev University and its interlocking relationships with western academic institutions is a powerful measure of the country’s commitment to addressing this problem.

Corruption afflicts every society to some degree. It is too easy to look at it as mere greed to be met with “just say no” policies. Corruption occurs where some social process or procedure breaks down, either by design or neglect, and “work arounds” have to be established to fulfill the purpose of the broken social instrument, or

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institution. Those who create and occupy the various “gatekeeper” functions to serve the otherwise unmet needs at a price become, in effect, a new privileged class. They at best duplicate and at worst distort or deny the services that are supposed to be provided by the formally established institution. When the weight of corruption across a society becomes more than a sum of nuisance surcharges and actually prevents things that need to happen from happening, social and political pressures build. If the rule of law, transparency, and an independent media have progressed to a point where stakeholders in smooth operation of the social process can make the dysfunctional nature of the corrupted process a public issue, reform is possible. Putting these other forces into play as allies of professed government aims is thus the challenge that Kazakhstan must meet if it is to begin ratcheting down the level of corruption – and which has kept some important investors from entering its markets. Kazakhstan is learning that it is not enough to increase salaries for public officials and judges. Perhaps most debilitating is the practice of “privatizing” the state through the unofficial sale of public offices, which has a downward cascading effect that ultimately poisons both the collector and the payer of such “contribution taxes.”

On the geopolitical plane, a key challenge that Kazakhstan will need to keep addressing is the maintenance of an acceptable but necessarily delicate balance among the major global players interested in its region of the world. The preservation of national sovereignty and territorial integrity are, of course, fundamental in this effort. Historic ties and commercial relationships will play a role, as will Kazakhstan’s own efforts to maintain internal ethnic and religious harmony. In gauging the intensity of its relations with each of the

major powers, Kazakhstan will need to keep an eye to the implications that its various relationships have to the kind of modeling that Kazakhstan wants to take hold in its own economy, society, and political system.

ConclusionWith its 20-year track record since independence,

Kazakhstan is today not only a going concern but a thriving economy with vast potential, both as a business platform and as strategic hub in the global economy. Companies entering its markets now will still be getting in on a ground floor, particularly in non-energy sectors. Doing so now will demonstrate confidence in Kazakhstan’s future and earn a company considerable good will in its relations with Kazakhstanis, public and private. The global financial crisis was a temporary setback that prudent, long-term investors saw as a valuable “buying opportunity” to not let slip by.

Prospective investors may wish to establish a representative office as a first step, testing local conditions before building up to a branch office or a subsidiary once prospects warrant. Company representatives should seek to build a wide range of personal relationships for information and insights, making a special effort to understand Kazakhstani perspectives and problems. They should look for ways to channel informally expressed needs into overt channels and become a proponent of making those transparent channels do what they are supposed to do. In a society with nascent and relatively weak institutions, people instead put their trust in personal relationships, so it is wise to commit senior management time to nurture key relationships.

In the heartland of Eurasia, Kazakhstan, is indeed a land of opportunity for the intelligent investor of the 21st Century.

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Introduction1

Nothing short of the survival of mankind is the underpinning for the recent concern over “sustainability”. Concern for the environment dates back to the 1970 “Earth Day” and even to prior years. Yet these concerns have been primarily limited to environmentalists, naturalists and political activists. The Kyoto

Treaty of 1997 broadened the circle of debate, when the treaty was signed under the UN Climate Change Convention. But it then stalled and was ensnarled in politics, eventually to be killed by the failure of the United States to ratify it.

Still, the idea did not catch on until it was embraced by a number of business leaders who saw such terms as “sustainability”, “triple bottom line” to be in their own enlightened self-interest. Increasingly businesses became convinced that they could “do well by doing good”. The United Nations Global Compact was among the leading initiatives that promoted sustainability as a prudent goal for businesses.2

Eventually such terms as “going green” and “carbon footprint” entered the discourse. Various media organizations embraced the cause; the Dow Jones company launched the Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes in 1999. This was claimed to be the first global index to track the financial performance of the leading sustainability-driven companies worldwide. In 2009, Wal-Mart began its own drive to become “sustainable”. A long list of other companies joined, and definitions, terminology and metrics proliferated.

Academia, too, began to incorporate “sustainability’ into the curricula. Universities such as Columbia, Arizona State, South Carolina, Chicago, Oregon, Case Western Reserve, Cleveland State and Portland State have become leaders in the field. These and other 1 Research on which the present essay is based was supported by Texas A&M International University, and was conducted during the author’s faculty development leave in fall, 2010. The author gratefully acknowledges the research assistance of Diana Dean.2 See Tagi Sagafi-nejad, in collaboration with John H. Dunning, The United Nations and Transnational Corporations: From Code of Conduct to Global Compact (Indiana University Press, 2008), esp. pp. 195-98.

universities have now turned their attention on the issues of “Business Sustainability” by offering special programs and certificates.

In this essay, we review initiatives take in academia, in the corporate world, and within international organizations. The goal is to see what we know about the subject that can be traced to one of the above categories of institutions. We begin with a few definitions:

• Capable of being sustained• Capable of endurance• Of, relating to, or being a method of using a resource

so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged. (Webster)

• Policies and strategies that meet society’s present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. (EPA)

The 1970 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) formally established as a national goal the creation and maintenance of conditions under which humans and nature “can exist in productive harmony, and fulfill the social, economic and other requirements of present and future generations of Americans”. Other definitions include:

• Using methods, systems and materials that won’t deplete resources or harm natural cycles” (Rosenbaum, 1993).

• A concept and attitude in development that looks at a site’s natural land, water, and energy resources as integral aspects of the development” (Vieira,1993)

• Integrates natural systems with human patterns and celebrates continuity and uniqueness (Early, 1993)

The government of the United Kingdom has made the achievement of sustainable development one of its principal objectives. At its heart is the simple idea of ensuring a better quality of life for everyone, now and for future generations. A widely-used international definition is ‘development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’.

From a business perspective, the goal of sustainability is to increase long-term shareholder and social value, while decreasing industry’s use of materials and reducing negative impact on the environment.

Common to both the public policy and business perspectives is recognition of the need to support a growing economy while reducing the social and economic costs of economic growth.

Some of the main metrics associated with the term include “carbon footprint”, the total greenhouse gas

SUSTAINABIlITY IN ACADEMIA, BUSINESS ANDINTERNATIONAl ORGANIZATIONS

By Tagi Sagafi-Nejad, Distinguished Professor Texas A&M International University, USA

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emissions caused directly and indirectly by a person, organization, event or product. The footprint considers all six of the Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). A carbon footprint is measured in tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e). The carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) allows different greenhouse gases to be compared on a like-for-like basis relative to one unit of CO2, which is calculated by multiplying the emissions of each of the six greenhouse gases by its 100 year global warming potential (GWP).

Another concept often used in connection with environmental aspects of sustainability is “cap and trade”. A “cap” a legal limit on the quantity of greenhouse gases our economy can emit each year. “Trade” means that companies may swap among themselves the permission to emit greenhouse gases. In other words, there is a market for pollution “permits” or “allowances.” A related term is “carbon offset” a monetary investment in a project or activity elsewhere that abates greenhouse (GHG) emissions or sequesters carbon from the atmosphere that is used to compensate for GHG emissions from your own activities. Offsets can be bought by a business or individual in the voluntary market (or within a trading scheme), a carbon offset usually represents one ton of CO2-e. Under this scheme, individuals and corporations pay for reductions elsewhere in order to offset their own emissions

I. Academia

The interdisciplinary nature of sustainability has been the main driver of academic institutions’ strategy, both in terms of curriculum development – as academic institutions – and in the adoption of sustainable policies and practices – as standard “business” entities. Some universities, including mine, began adding to staff and faculty’s e-mail signature files, the following message: “Think before you print” and we recently changed the cover page of International Trade Journal, our academic publication, to a lighter color, to reduce our “carbon footprint”.

The research on which the current essay is based led to the discovery of a large pool of universities, some of which have established centers, programs, and even degrees. While they vary in intensity and scope, they share several characteristics. First, by and large they are all generally grounded in interdisciplinary research, and therefore transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries.

One of the most ambitious of these American university-level programs can be found at Arizona State University (ASU) in Tempe, near Phoenix. A program originally conceived at Columbia University’s Earth Institute was brought to this university by a visionary new president, who dreamed of having a comprehensive

educational program from the undergraduate to doctoral levels. Thus an umbrella organization was created from programs across the campus, leading to the establishment of degrees in Sustainability at the undergraduate, masters and PhD levels.

The umbrella organization within ASU is the School of Sustainability, which is a unit of the Global Institute of Sustainability. The program provides “innovative, interdisciplinary education opportunities at undergraduate, masters and PhD levels, to better prepare students to identify and solve sustainability challenges”. Accordingly, it provides the following degrees:

• B.S. in Sustainability• B.A in Sustainability• Master of Arts in Sustainability• Master of Science in Sustainability• Doctor of Philosophy in SustainabilityIn addition to curriculum development, many

universities have also undertaken steps toward sustainability in their operations, as would any organization interested in adopting sustainability as a component of its strategy. These include energy and water conservation, recycling, and overall “greening” of the campus. Examples include the following cases reported in University Business3:

a) University of Albany (New York) Students are being challenged to calculate their carbon footprint and then make strides to reduce it. Two living and learning communities have been established focusing on the environment, including energy, recycling and waste reduction.

b) Colorado College, located in Colorado Springs, is one of many institutions that have made a commitment to support local farmers. Their sustainability efforts include purchasing as much local food as possible, labeling food based on distance from campus, tray-less dining, and the Earth Tub, a compost area for biodegradable products. Food grown by students is served in the college cafeteria.

c) University of California, San Diego, established the Sustainability Resource Center in the student center in fall 2009.

d) Eastern Michigan University has found an opportunity to set the bar high for sustainable practices in construction. When designing plans to renovate their 180,000 square foot science complex and add 30 percent more space, the University worked with architects and engineers to provide innovative cooling technology, saving both money and energy.

e) Cleveland State University in Cleveland, Ohio, has a number of degree and certificate programs on sustainability, and collaborates with the city of Cleveland on several projects. It identified career opportunities in 59 areas of economic activity to entice students.3 Keri Lee Horan, “Sustainability Trends on Campuses”, University Business, June 2010. http://www.universitybusiness.com/viewarticle.aspx?articleid=1611

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University Business (UB), a publication specializing in matters pertaining to higher education, spearheaded a series of webinars in 2011 on how universities can “go green”. According to UB, the green movement focuses on four factors: clean energy, energy efficiency, environmentally friendly production, and the conservation and reduction of waste materials. Information technology offices at institutions can exercise great control in energy efficiency, to the benefit not only of the institution, but the surrounding community as well.4

The Association for the Study of Sustainable Higher Education (ASSHE) was established with for explicit purpose bringing under one umbrella all academic institutions dealing with sustainability. It lists hundreds of colleges and universities as members. Most of its members, however, do not have significant programs or practices on sustainability, but they do show some degree of awareness of its importance.

II. Business

Many businesses, especially multinational corporations, have also embraced sustainability as a mantra.

An increasing number have incorporated “sustainability” into their statements, and reference to the term is appearing with greater frequency. This is in part the corporate response to the global calls for greater attention to sustainable practices, and in part to “jump-on-the-latest-bandwagon” effect. The term has replaced the oft-repeated term “globalization”, which was prevalent during the last two decades.

In the corporate world, more than any other sphere, there appears to be a contradiction or disconnect between word and deed. In the course of the author’s research, a large number of cases were assembled where words did not match deeds with respect to sustainability.

One overarching result emerging from this list is that the majority of multinational corporations are willing to abide by the rules and are indeed ahead of the curve with respect to sustainability; yet in some cases words do not match deeds. There were still cases where companies have been challenged, in court and in the press, for either violating rules set by law, or even where they have had to admit mea culpa because they had failed to abide by their own rules. The case of the 2010 British Petroleum (BP) oil spill and the ensuing public relations catastrophe is illustrative of the discontinuity between companies’ words and deeds.

III. International Organizations

There are several categories of international organizations involved in sustainability, by setting standards, engaging in educational and other efforts.

The United Nations System: Several members of the UN galaxy have shown interest in sustainability, especially as it relates to their respective mandate. 4 See “Going Green: Small Steps, Big Impact” University Business, http://www.universitybusiness.com/webseminars/webseminararchive.aspx, retrieved April 12, 2011

These include the UN Secretary General, World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), among others.

International Standards Organization: As a standard-setting institution, the ISO has been instrumental in articulating metrics on sustainability.

IV. Metrics on Sustainability

Given the multidisciplinary and multidimensional nature of sustainability, it is not surprising the it means different things to different people. The ultimate test of whether a policy, practice, strategy or outlook is ‘”sustainable” is whether it can be gauged, measured, or substantiated. There has therefore been a call for the development of metrics for sustainability. A number of organizations within academia, industry and international organizations have been working on developing such metrics. They include:

1. Global Reporting Initiative – A framework based on principles and indicators which organizations can use to measure and report their economic, environmental, and social performance.

Comprised of some 450 stakeholders, GRI has its roots in an initiative by the non-profit CERES organization in Boston in 1997.5

i. International Standards Organization (ISO)a) 14000 – An environmental management

standard established by the International Organization for Standardization, its core elements are: environmental management, auditing, performance evaluation, labeling, and life-cycle assessment.

b) ISO 14001:2004 is a tool that can be used to meet internal objectives:

- provide assurance to management that it is in control of the organizational processes and activities that have an impact on the environment

- assure employees that they are working for an environmentally responsible organization.

ISO 14001:2004 can also be used to meet external objectives: Companies need to:

• provide assurance on environmental issues to external stakeholders – such as customers, the community and regulatory agencies

• comply with environmental regulations• support the organization’s claims and

communications about its own environmental policies, plans and actions

• provide a framework for demonstrating conformity via suppliers’ declarations of conformity, assessment of conformity by an external stakeholder - such as a business client - and for certification of conformity by an independent certification body.6

2. UN Global CompactOn 31 January 1999, the United Nations Secretary-

General Kofi A. Annan challenged world business 5 See http://www.globalreporting.org/AboutGRI/WhatIsGRI/History/OurHistory.htm6 See http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_14000_essentials

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leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland to “embrace and enact” a Global Compact, both in their individual corporate practices and by supporting appropriate public policies. Based on the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, these principles cover topics on human rights, labor and the environment. Since the aim of the Global Compact is to create a broader network, it has reached out to other organizations. The ambitious initiative involves creating a “network” of like-minded organizations, including transnational corporations, to promote the goals and objectives the United Nations most recently articulated in its “Millennium Development Goals”.

To encourage corporations to adhere to its ten principles, the UN developed a protocol by which corporations can be signatories to these goals, and then to support their pledge of adherence by providing periodic reports of their progress. Those who sign on but fail to provide updates are what can be “grey-listed” on the GC web site. Shaming them into compliance may be an effective alternative to legally binding mechanisms. The program lists as “Non-Communicating Participants” any signatories which:

• fails to develop a Communication on Progress by the relevant deadline or has not yet provided a link to/description of their Communication on Progress;

• refuses to engage in dialogue on a matter raised under the Global Compact integrity measures within three months of first being contacted by the Global Compact Office.

Figure 1The UN Global Compact “leadership Challenge”

model and the interplay of actions and stakeholders

Source: http://www.unglobalcompact.org/

3. Dow Jones Sustainability IndexIn collaboration with SAM, a Swiss-based investment

services firm, the Dow Jones company, publishers of the Wall Street Journal, created a “Sustainability Index” in

1999. They claim this to be the first index that traces financial performance of the leading sustainability-driven companies.

The Dow Jones Sustainability World Enlarged Index is composed of global sustainability leaders as identified by SAM through a corporate sustainability assessment. The index represents the top 20% of the largest 2,500 companies in the Dow Jones Global Total Stock Market Index, based on long-term economic, environmental and social criteria. Key features of the index are:

• Components are selected according to a systematic corporate sustainability assessment that identifies sustainability leaders in each of 57 industry groups.

• The underlying research methodology accounts for general as well as industry-specific sustainability trends and evaluates corporations based on a variety of criteria including climate change strategies, energy consumption, human resources development, knowledge management, stakeholder relations and corporate governance.7

V. Conclusion: The Seven Pillars of Sustainability

Sustainability is a multidimensional and multidisciplinary concept. Where as many may disagree on the precise definition, there are a number of prerequisites or pillars. We conclude this essay by introducing and defining these “seven pillars of sustainability”8.

1. Desirability: To be sustainable, a policy, action or strategy must be perceived by a multitude of stakeholders as desirable. There seems to be clear indication that sustainability is a desirable goal; increased attention by corporations, universities, international organizations and a variety of other groups is clear testimony to its desirability.

2. Feasibility: Such actions need also meet the test of feasibility. Are they feasible, practical or implementable, or merely declarations and wish lists? When we drill down to the details, we note that living up to high standards demanded of sustainable action is not always feasible. Our case studies of words versus deeds illustrate this divergence between desirability and feasibility.

3. Inter- and intra-stakeholder consensus: Sustainability in volves many groups of stakeholders, from environmental pressure groups to governmental agencies, from minimalists to activists, and spread across jurisdictions and cultures. To be sustainable, there must be consensus within each group as well as between various stakeholder groups. Given the complexity of the subject, and its contending approaches to it, this pillar is a major stumbling block toward the achievement of sustainable strategies, actions and policies. The importance of this pillar has been demonstrated by the failure of the Kyoto Treaty.

7 See http://www.sustainability-indexes.com8 Some of the ideas summarized here have their genesis in the joint work between the author and Howard V. Perlmutter over many years. See xxxx

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4. Clarity of perception: Various stakeholder groups do not agree on a definition, the nature of the “problematique” and how they each perceive it. The matter is further clouded by mutual misperceptions. Not only are problems sometimes shrouded, clouded and out of focus, any misperception of the other groups’ position adds to the fog. Universities, standard-setters and enlightened corporations, aided by organizations engaged in metrics and measurements, can demystify the matter and help clarify perceptions.

5. Trust: If we are to establish ground rules and standards, a certain amount of trust must prevail among the players. Our examples of “words versus deeds, and the UN Global Compact’s practice of asking signatories to provide compliance reports, or be listed as non-compliant, are examples of establishing trust through openness and communication.

6. Role legitimacy: No standard is likely to be implemented if the promulgators and enforcers are not viewed as legitimate. The failure of the Kyoto Treaty is attributable to the refusal of the United States to bestow

legitimacy to the initiative. Similarly, if the ISO, GRI, or any other standard- or rule-setting organization fails to receive legitimacy from its stakeholders, its efforts are bound to fail.

7. legal status: Any instrument, action or policy is ultimately as effective as the enforcement mechanism that stands behind it. One of the major challenges faced by the community of scholars and institutions focusing on sustainability is that they rely on the conscience, good will, and responsibility of individuals and organizations for enforcement. At this juncture, there is no set of rules, fortified by courts and cops, to ensure enforcement. We are at the mercy of those in power to “come to their senses” and “act responsibly”. These are vague terms, and do not lend themselves to enforcement. Initiatives concerning carbon markets, if they ever gain widespread support, can come close to the market as an arbiter and enforcer. Meanwhile, what remains is appealing to the conscience of the individual and the enterprise. The alternative, global rules with legal teeth, is a distant dream.

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NANOSTRUCTURED THIN-FIlM SOlID OXIDE FUEl CEll:AN EFFICIENT AND ClEAN FUTURE ENERGY SOURCE

By Alex IgnatievDirector of the Centre of Breakthrough Materials, Houston University, USA

A new type of thin film solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) has been developed to realize high efficiency, clean operation, and the reduction of fuel cell operating temperature. This new fuel cell is especially important for the use in portable devices and distributed energy production systems. The fuel ceil is fabricated by thin-film deposition

processes with an electrolyte film of thickness 300nm to 1,000nm on a nickel foil substrate. The nickel substrate is used as a porous fuel cell anode through lithographic patterning and a thin-film oxide cathode is fabricate on top of eh electrolyte to complete the thin-film SOFC structure.

IntroductionConcerns on the internal combustion use of fossil

fuels and the resultant environmental impacts of such have led to increased interest in fuel cells. Multiple fuel cell designs exist; however, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are highly attractive due to high energy efficiency and environmental friendliness [1, 2]. The efficiency of SOFCs can reach up to 60%; however, traditional SOFCs work at 900C to 1000C and thus face high temperature materials stability problems. As a result, efforts have been undertaken to reduce SOFC operating temperature through both the reduction of electrolyte thickness [3], or through the use of a higher ion conducting electrolyte material [4].

We discuss here a unique approach to realizing reduced temperature operation and high power density in the advancement of an ultra-thin film SOFC fabricated through the application of microelectronic technologies on a metallic foil substrate by thin film deposition and photolithographic patterning and etching methods. The thin film SOFC has an electrolyte thickness of 300nm to 2m and a total thickness of ≤ 20m. This has resulted in a major decrease in operating temperature to the 470-570C range. In addition, due to the ultra thin SOFC total thickness, a cell stack is projected to have a power density of > 5 W/cm3 thereby opening up application fields in portable electronics and distributed energy.

ExperimentalThe thin-film oxide layers comprising the fuel cell

are deposited by commercially viable metallorganic

chemical vapor deposition or pulsed laser deposition. The fuel cell thin film electrolyte layer - yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ), is deposited on a nickel foil, which is used as the substrate for the cell fabrication process and also as the anode of the fuel cell. Since the nickel foil substrate is required to be porous to form the anode, the Ni side of the substrate foil (after YSZ electrolyte deposition) is subjected to photolithographic patterning, and chemical or electro-chemical etching to develop pores in the nickel substrate. The pore structure can be varied to obtain improved fuel cell performance and is somewhat dependent on Ni substrate foil thickness. The pore structure currently used is a hexagonal array of round pores as can be seen in Figure 1. Fig. 1 is an SEM micrograph of an etched thin film YSZ/Ni sample as viewed from the nickel side showing an array of pores through the Ni foil with YSZ thin-film seen inside the pores. It is well to note that the Ni has been well etched with pores, while the YSZ was unaffected, showing no cracking or other damage, and was self-supporting over the pores making this microstructure ideal for a thin film fuel cell.

Figure 1SEM micrograph of the Ni side of the etched YSZ/Ni sample

Based on our previous work [5], a porous lanthanum strontium cobalt oxide (LSCO) cathode layer is deposited onto the electrolyte after the etch processing of the Ni anode to form a complete thin film solid oxide fuel cell element of nominal thickness of 15 m. The LSCO cathode is made up of two layers, a dense bottom layer (~200nm thickness) deposited directly onto the YSZ electrolyte at a temperature of ~500C, and a top LSCO layer (~6000nm thickness) deposited on the dense

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LSCO at room temperature [10]. Figure 2 shows the SEM micrographs of the surface of the top layer, and indicates that the top LSCO layer is porous with micro/nano pores. An enhanced surface micro-nano structure for the top LSCO layer is seen to be important for a high surface exchange coefficient and low cathode resistance.

Figure 2SEM micrograph of the top micro-nano porous

lSCO layer

DiscussionThe crux of this thin film solid oxide fuel cell design

is the ultra-thin nature of the solid oxide electrolyte. This results in a major reduction in cell operating temperatures with the thin-film fuel cells operating over a temperature range of from 450 to 550C. [6, 7] The performance of a typical YSZ-based thin film fuel cell as a function of temperature is shown in Fig. 3. The cell open circuit voltage is over 0.8V and the maximum cell output power increases with an increase in temperature varying from 30mW/cm2 at 480C to a maximum power output of ~110mW/cm2 at 570C. The current maximum power output is lower than that for bulk SOFC’s operating at 900oC, however, it is much higher than bulk SOFC’s or other designs of so-called ‘thin’ film SOFC’s operating at ~550oC.

Figure 3Fuel cell output at different temperatures

operating with hydrogen and air

This significant lowering of operating temperature (by over 400oC) now means that the exotic oxide seals and ultra-high temperature metals required for bulk SOFC’s are no longer needed. Nominal stainless steels can be utilized for structural supports and tubulation, and standard welding procedures can be used to interconnect the fuel cells. In addition, this significant lowering of operating temperature to the 500oC range means that the ‘coking’ problem known for operation of the bulk SOFC with hydrocarbon fuels no longer exists. The Ni anode is an excellent hydrocarbon reduction catalyst at the 500oC range of temperatures, but becomes covered with carbon (coking) at temperatures above 650oC. As a result, bulk SOFC’s require additional catalysts (reformers) to process hydrocarbon fuel into hydrogen for use by the SOFC. The thin film SOFC shown here with the much lower operating temperature does not have the problem of ‘coking’ when hydrocarbon fuels are used, thus it does not require an additional catalyst/reformer to work with hydrocarbon fuels, i.e., it is ‘self-reforming’.

Furthermore, the overall efficiency of an individual thin film solid oxide fuel cell element operating on hydrogen-air is over 55% - similar to high temperature bulk solid oxide fuel cells, and significantly higher than the nominal 35% value for polymer membrane (PEM) fuel cells. This high efficiency is accompanied by a fuel cell exhaust that comprised only of H2O vapor and CO2 and is at ~ 500 C. Such an exhaust can be further used for generating process heat, e.g., heating water, heating air, or absorption cooling of air. It should be noted that the thin film SOFC does not produce nitrous oxides or carbon monoxide, and that the CO2/ H2O exhaust can be sequestered to reduce CO2 from the atmosphere.

Finally, the volume-specific power output for the nanostructured thin-film SOFC is dependent on the design of the fuel cell stack. The stack design requires an interconnect to allow for series connection of the cells so as to reach a viable operating voltage for the system. A sketch of the TFSOFC interconnect stack design is shown in Figure 4. The interconnects in our design are patterned thin stainless steel foils with micro-fluidic connections to the balance of plant. Figure 5 show a patterned interconnect with fluid flow micro- channels.

Figure 4Thin film solid oxide fuel cell stack schematic

design with thin film interconnects. Microfluidics are to be used to connect the micro-patterned fuel

cell to the balance of plant

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Figure 5Fuel Cell interconnect:

(a) patterned and etched interconnect (b) schematic of interconnect indicating

the cross- patterned micro-channels on top and bottom of the interconnect

The current nanostructured thin film solid oxide fuel cell stack design conservatively projects the volume-specific power to be at a >5W/cm3. This phenomenal value is more than 20 times larger than that of other current SOFC designs as well as PEM designs. The high efficiency, high specific power, and clean operation coupled with the microelectronics-based processing and the highly efficient deposition technology of MOCVD for the nanostructured thin film fuel cell promises exceptional market penetration for portable devices and distributed energy.

REFERENCES:

1. A. B. Stambouli, and E. Traversa, Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs): A Review of an Environmentally Clean and Efficient Source of Energy, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2002, Vol.6, pp. 433-455.

2. Z. Shao, S. M. Haile, J. Ahn, P. D. Ronney, Z. Zhan, and S. A. Barrnett, A Thermally Self-Sustained Micro Solid-Oxide Fuel-Cell Stack with High Power Density, Nature, 2005, Vol.435, pp. 795-798.

3. X. Chen, N. J. Wu, L. Smith, and A. Ignatiev, Thin-Film Heterostructure Solid Oxide Fuel Cells, Applied Physics Letters, 2004, Vol.84, No.14, pp. 2700-2702.

4. S. De Souza, S. J. Visco, L. C. De Jonghe, Reduced-Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Based on YSZ Thin-Film Electrolyte, Journal of The Electrochemical Society, 1997, Vol.144, No.3, pp., L35-L37.

5. X. Chen, N. J. Wu, and A. Ignatiev, Structure and Conducting Properties of La1-xSrxCoO3-Films, Journal of European Ceramic Society, 1999, Vol.19, pp. 819-822.

6. X. Chen, N. J. Wu, L. Smith, J. R. Li, and A. Ignatiev, Ultra Thin Solid Oxide Fuel Cells with High Power Density, WSEAS Transactions on Electronics, Vol.3, 2006, pp.28-33.

7. A.Ignatiev, X. Chen, N.J Wu, Z. Lu and L. Smith, “Nanostructured Thin Solid Oxide Fuel Cells with High Power Density”, Dalton Transactions., 2008, 17, 2009

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Распространение на рубеже ХХ и ХХI веков нового составного поня-тия «энергоэкологическое развитие», соединяющего в себе, как казалось, со-вершенно разные области науки и практики, было на самом деле очень своев-ременным и адекватным действием в поисках отве-тов на совершенно новые

сложные проблемы, с которыми человечеству до сих пор сталкиваться не приходилось.

Если говорить о первой части этого составного термина – экологии, то, конечно, он уже давно у всех и на слуху и на виду, но долгое время, он попросту служил некой моде «на экологический подход», не меняя серьезно отношение к природоохранным мероприятиям на практике. И только тогда, когда экологические проблемы были соединены и сопос-тавлены с масштабами и сложностью проблемы энергообеспеченности дальнейшего экономического и социального развития всех стран и народов, про-живающих сегодня на Земле, только тогда проблема Экологии и ограниченности естественно-ресурсного потенциала Планеты получила при освещении в пе-чати и политических декларациях тот масштаб и ста-тус, который она реально сегодня обрела.

Известно, что именно природа является ба-зисным источником всех ресурсов человеческого развития. Этот факт долгое время представлялся настолько само собою разумеющимся, что его про-сто-напросто выносили за скобки во всех серьезных обсуждениях. Однако с некоторых пор, после начав-шегося широкого распространения по всему зем-ному шару (включая традиционные цивилизации в странах Востока и Юга) стандартов западного потре-бительского общества, потребовавшего в возраста-ющих масштабах затрат природной энергии и сырья, вторжение человечества в богатства Земли достигло качественно новых масштабов, так что отрицатель-ные изменения в природной среде в ряде случаев стали обретать необратимый характер.

Общие запасы парниковых газов, удерживаю-щие тепло в земной атмосфере, в последние десяти-летия увеличиваются беспрецедентными темпами,

на что в определенной степени повлияла тенденция ускоренного экономического роста в ряде развива-ющихся стран, но главный вклад в загрязнение ат-мосферы по-прежнему делают развитые страны. Хотя жители самых богатых стран оставляют всего 15% населения планеты, они ответственны за почти половину всех выбросов СО

2. Высокие темпы эко-

номического роста в Китае и Индии оборачиваются постепенной конвергенцией в объёмах агрегирован-ных выбросов. Однако в расчёте на душу населения углеродные выбросы в США в пять раз превышают аналогичный показатель в Китае и более чем в пят-надцать раз – Индии.

Вслед за острыми энергоэкологическими кол-лизиями, проявившимися уже в 1970-х годах, как бы неожиданно в 2007-2008 годах вышли на поверх-ность признаки мирового продовольственного кри-зиса, весьма остро обозначились симптомы острой нехватки пресной воды, запахло опасными измене-ниями климата. На эти глубинные противоречия с осени 2008 г. наложились потрясения финансово-экономического кризиса, приобретшего общемиро-вой масштаб. Чем дальше, тем больше объективные исследователи убеждаются в тесной взаимозависи-мости энергоэкологических проблем и проблем, ини-циировавших и воспроизводящих мировой экономи-ческий кризис.

Несмотря на огромные денежные ресурсы, пот-раченные странами мира на борьбу с кризисом, нель-зя быть уверенным, что экономический ритм вос- становился. Многие аналитики считают весьма ве-роятными новые повторения фаз кризисного спада. В этой связи правительства ведущих стран мира и международные аналитические штабы активно про-рабатывают посткризисные сценарии и модели эко-номической политики, в надежде повысить устойчи-вость развития в ближайшем и отдаленном будущем. И, как теперь всё более очевидно, суть и исходы про-рабатываемых сценариев целиком зависят от зало-женных подходов к потреблению и воспроизводству ресурсно-экологического потенциала планеты.

Основные надежды у оптимистически настроен-ных экспертов возлагаются на научно-технический прогресс, в этом плане с энтузиазмом описываются ожидаемые перспективы развертывания так назы-ваемого «шестого» технологического уклада, свя-зываемого с освоением законов наномира, биотех-

ПРИНЦИПЫ ЭНЕРГОЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ НА ХХI ВЕК

Валерий КушлинЗаведующий кафедрой Российской академии государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации

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нологиями, формированием систем, воплощающих искусственный интеллект. Однако в большинстве случаев такие прогнозы сегодня не вполне увязаны с ресурсными возможностями планеты, не оценены в социально-экономическом отношении.

В других научных работах, пытающихся сопос-тавить ожидаемые научно-технологические сдвиги в будущем с ресурсно-экологическими реалиями, встречаются оценки, которые весьма далеки от оп-тимизма. «Как следует из последнего доклада Рим-скому клубу, подготовленного Э. Вайцзекером и его коллегами, – пишет недавно ушедший из жизни наш выдающийся мыслитель К.В.Лесков, – даже если удастся распространить во всемирном масштабе наиболее современные технологии, это даст воз-можность отсрочить наступление экологического коллапса всего на несколько десятилетий. А по оцен-ке Н.Н. Моисеева, катастрофа может наступить уже в середине XXI в., причем настолько быстро, что при-нимать какие-либо спасительные меры будет уже поздно».

От проектировщиков человеческого будущего и от глобальных политических стратегов сегодня тре-буется нестандартное мышление и высокотворчес-кие подходы к развитию стран и цивилизационных общностей, активные поиски принципиально новых решений не только в сфере научно-технологических областях, а и в социально-политической сфере.

В рамках специальной Программы ООН по окру-жающей среде (UNEP – United Nations Environment Programme) в 2007 г. был подготовлен доклад «Пер-спективы глобальной окружающей среды» (GEO-4), оценки и выводы которого полностью актуальны и сегодня. В докладе дан развернутый прогноз изме-нений окружающей среды в мире в целом, и в укруп-ненных мировых регионах - Африка, Азия и регион Тихого Океана, Европа, Латинская Америка и Кари-бы, Северная Америка, Западная Азия. Рассмотрен весьма широкий спектр показателей, характеризую-щих окружающую среду, начиная с 2000 года (базис-ные фактические данные) и заканчивая 2050 годом, как верхней точкой прогноза. Прогноз разработан в разрезе четырех гипотетически представляемых сце-нариев.

Первый сценарий – Приоритет Рынка (Markets First) исходит из предположения, что частный сек-тор при активной правительственной поддержке добивается максимального экономического роста с одновременным осуществлением лучших путей под-держания окружающей среды и человеческого бла-госостояния.

Второй сценарий – Приоритет Политики (Policy First) исходит из того, что правительства при актив-ном участии частного и общественного секторов инициируют и осуществляют сильную политику по улучшению окружающей среды и человеческого бла-госостояния.

Третий сценарий – Приоритет Безопасности (Security First) предполагает, что правительства и частный сектор как бы соревнуются за контроль в усилиях по улучшению или поддержанию человечес-кого благосостояния, исходя из особой роли богатых и сильных в обществе. Имеется в виду приоритет доступа к использованию основных ресурсов окру-жающей среды тех, у кого сила и деньги.

Четвертый сценарий – Приоритет Приемлемос-ти или Устойчивости (Sustainability First) исходит из того, что гражданское общество и частный сектор тесно сотрудничают в делах улучшения окружающей среды и человеческого благосостояния с упором на справедливость. Равный вес придается охране окру-жающей среды и социально-экономической поли-тике в условиях прозрачности и легитимности всех действий.

Обращает на себя внимание тот факт, что среди четырех рассматриваемых международным эксперт-ным сообществом сценариев развития нашел себе самостоятельное (респектабельное) место и сце-нарий, реализующий право сильного в мире дикто-вать свою волю всем остальным (сценарий Security First). В свете противоречий, обострившихся в ходе мирового кризиса, похоже, именно этот сценарий начинает привлекать внимание так называемой ми-ровой элиты, сосредоточенной в довольно узкой группе высокоразвитых стран мира. Эти силы ведут линию на возврат к прежней экономической модели и привычной схеме управления глобальным миром. В борьбе за монопольный доступ к мировым ресур-сам, становящимся всё более ограниченными, их не останавливает перспектива локальных и даже ми-ровых войн. Всерьез рассматривается модель ми-ровой политики, реализующей линию на снижение мирового населения втрое и более. Эта проблема, согласно публикации в британском еженедельнике The Sunday Times, была в центре внимания на не-публичном семинаре, состоявшемся в мае 2010 г. в Нью-Йорке, на котором якобы присутствовали мно-гие выдающиеся интеллектуалы современности. О направленности дискуссии можно предположить на основе просочившихся в печать мыслей, звучавших на семинаре о том, что причиной глобального по-тепления является слишком большая численность населения планеты («слишком много материала»), и её, мол, необходимо уменьшить на 2/3, доведя до 2 млрд. человек, что позволит обеспечить высокий уровень жизни для оставшихся четырех миллиардов.

Эту жесткую модель глобальной антикризисной политики отнюдь нельзя считать невероятной, она может получить реальное распространение, если не начать на идейно-теоретическом уровне давать должный отпор псевдоновым концепциям, отвечаю-щим по-прежнему интересам элиты, а не целям об-щемирового благополучия. В этом противодействии нужно использовать самую разнообразную аргумен-

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тацию, которая бы убеждала мыслящую часть чело-вечества, что политика силового подавления слабых ради благоденствия сильного меньшинства в нынеш-них условиях несостоятельна в принципе. И потому, что уровень грамотности и информированности масс людей в век Интернета радикально иное, чем в XIX и даже чем в XX веке. И особенно потому, что уро-вень экологических неравновесий на планете сегод-ня близок к катастрофическому. Природа неизбежно будет самым неожиданным и самым жесточайшим образом мстить человечеству за военные и антисо-циальные авантюры. Случаи участившихся мировых катастроф уже сейчас дают материалы, подтверж-дающие реалистичность данной гипотезы.

Возвращаясь к материалам GEO-4, нельзя, на наш взгляд, не сделать вывода о бесперспективнос-ти для человечества не только третьего (приоритет самых сильных), но и первого (приоритет рынка) сце-нариев развития. Лишь второй и четвертый варианты сценариев содержат надежды на сдвиги к лучшему.

Развитие в этом направлении будет возможным в том случае, если человечество в целом и, в пер-вую очередь, высокоразвитые страны будут в мень-шей степени опираться в экономической политике на принцип «методологического индивидуализма» и усилят ориентацию на солидарные действия по ос-воению всеми странами принципиально новых (ме-нее ресурсоемких) технологий производства и быта. Отставшие от развитых стран в социально-экономи-ческом смысле страны и народы должны при этом проделать сложную работу по преодолению отстава-ния от «лидеров» не путем копирования пройденного Западом пути, а на базе принципиально новых воз-можностей осуществления технологических сдвигов в условиях солидарной ответственности за будущее.

Известно, что критическим фактором, опреде-ляющим уровень загрязнения атмосферы и общий уровень экологических угроз, всегда было и остает-ся растущее производство и потребление энергии. Огромен разрыв между богатыми и бедными стра-нами по уровню обеспечения труда и быта людей электроэнергией. Если в мире в целом по состоянию на 2004 г. потребление электроэнергии на душу на-селения составляло 2701 кВч, то в странах ОЭСР – 8795 кВч, а в среднем по развивающимся странам – только 1221 кВч. При этом в странах Южной Азии данный показатель составлял 628 кВч на человека, в странах Африки к югу от Сахары – 478, а в наименее развитых странах – только 119 кВч. Никуда не уйти от того факта, что высокоразвитые страны на про-тяжении всей истории их экономического прогресса неизменно ориентировались на рост энергообеспе-ченности и на весьма высокие показатели потре-бления энергии в расчете на душу населения, чему способствовало их политическое и экономическое доминирование в мире. Эти страны долгое время

пользовались сформированной ими ситуацией неэк-вивалентного обмена с колониальными и зависимы-ми странами, когда сырье у последних покупалось по заниженным ценам, а обратный поток предметов переработки – по ценам завышенным. Показатель потребления электроэнергии на душу населения в 2004 г. составлял в США 14240 кВч, в Японии – 8459, тогда как в Китае – 1684, Индии – 618, Индонезии – 476, а, например, в Нигерии – 157 и Судане – 118 кВч.

В свете рассмотренного представляется весь-ма непростым ответ на вопрос, какой линии должны придерживаться на ближайшее и более отдаленное будущее в своих экономических и социально-эколо-гических стратегиях страны, отставшие от высоко-развитых стран по ключевым параметрам экономики и НТП. Для России из этих данных напрашивается четкий вывод о необходимости форсированного осуществления национально ориентированной по-литики инновационно-экономического развития, как ключевого условия занятия ею самостоятельной по-зиции в решении общемировых, в том числе эколо-гических проблем.

По уровню энергообеспеченности труда и быта Россия заметно отстает от США и других высоко-развитых стран. Показатель потребления электро- энергии на душу населения в РФ составлял в 2004 г. 6425 кВч, что ниже, чем в США в 2,2 раза, а по срав-нению с близкими по климатическим условиям Кана-дой и Норвегией – соответственно в 2,9 и 4,2 раза. Понятно, что России решить проблему преодоления сложившихся разрывов лишь путем воспроизвод-ства западных траекторий развития нереально.

Страна стоит перед необходимостью выработ-ки и реализации модели стратегического развития, ориентированной одновременно: а) на быстрое за-воевание высоких экономических позиций в мире на основе интенсивного перехода на инновационный тип развития и б) на последовательное пестование принципиально новых технологий и форм организа-ции производства и быта, стремясь найти новые под-ходы к снижению нагрузки на ресурсный потенциал природы и окружающую среду в кооперации с други-ми странами.

Заметим, что территория нашей страны до сих пор по относительной нетронутости природы за-метно отличается в лучшую сторону относительно того, что складывается в среднем в мире. Уровень сохранности естественных экосистем в разных стра-нах и регионах мира на стыке тысячелетий характе-ризовался экспертами следующим образом: Канада и Россия - 65%, Китай - 20%, Индонезия - 7%, США - 5%, Европа (без России) - 4%, Индия - 1%.

Включаясь в решение назревших общемировых экологических проблем, нам нельзя еще раз оказать-ся просто в роли прилежных учеников «высокоразви-того Запада». Только подняв свой производственный

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и научно-технологический потенциал в соответствии с национальными интересами, Россия может оказать необходимое концептуальное влияние на траек-тории развития мира в целом. Уже сегодня страна имеет шанс воспользоваться своими территориаль-но-природными преимуществами для выработки и реализации стратегии развития, отвечающей одно-временно и своим конкретным для данного перио-да национальным интересам и новым императивам взаимоотношений природы, экономики и общества в мировом масштабе.

Всё это может быть достигнуто только при том условии, что будет сделан существенный крен в поощрении высокотворческих подходов к проектиро-ванию и реализации стратегических планов эконо-мического, социально-культурного и политического развития страны, а главнейшим приоритетом госу-дарства на деле станет развитие человеческого по-тенциала, опирающееся на качественный подъем системы образования и всемерную поддержку науки и изобретательства.

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The distribution of the new composite concept of "energy and ecological development” at the turn of the XX and XXI centuries, which combines, as it seemed completely different field of science and practice was actually on time and appropriate action in search of answers to the whole new and complex challenges that humanity has not still faced with.

If we talk about the first part of this composite term - ecology, surely, it has been known for awhile, but for a long time, it simply served as a kind of mode "on the ecological approach” without changing the serious attitude toward environmental measures practice. And only when environmental issues were linked and compared with the scale and complexity of the energy supply problem in the further economic and social development of all countries and people on the earth today, only then the problems of ecology and limitations of natural-resource potential of the planet was in media coverage and political declarations that the scope and status that it actually gained today.

It is known that nature is a basic source of all human resources development. This fact has long been so self-evident that it simply was taken out of the brackets in all serious discussions. However, recently, after the beginning of wide spread across the globe (including traditional civilization in the East and South) the standards of the Western consumer society took an increasing scale of costs of natural energy and raw materials, the invasion of humanity in the Earth's wealth has reached a qualitatively new scale, so that adverse changes in the environment in some cases have to acquire an irreversible character.

Common stocks of greenhouse gases trapping heat in the Earth's atmosphere have been increasing at an unprecedented pace in recent decades to a certain extent which influenced by the trend of accelerated economic growth in some developing countries, but the main contribution to the pollution of the atmosphere continue to make developed countries. While residents of the richest countries are left with 15% of the planet, they are responsible for nearly half of all CO2 emissions. Rapid economic growth in China and India turn the gradual convergence in the amount of aggregate emissions. However, per capita carbon emissions in the United States is five times higher than in China and more than fifteen times - India.

Following the sharp energy and ecological conflicts which already occurred in 1970, suddenly in 2007-2008

came to the surface features of the global food crisis, very sharply delineated symptoms of acute shortage of fresh water, and the fragrance of dangerous climate change. These deep contradictions in autumn 2008 have combined shocks of financial and economic crisis have acquired a worldwide scale. Further, more objective researchers are convinced in close interdependence of energy and ecological issues and problems initiated and reproduced the global economic crisis.

Despite the huge financial resources spent by countries in the world to fight the crisis can’t be sure that the economic rhythm was restored. Many analysts consider highly probable recurrence of new phases of crisis downturn. In this regard, the Government of leading countries and international analytical bodies are actively working on post-crisis scenarios and models of economic policy in hope to improve sustainability of development in the near and long-term future. Now, it is clear about the essence and the outcomes studied by scripts entirely dependent on the inherent approaches to consumption and reproduction of the resource and environmental potential of the planet.

The main hope of the optimistic experts is assigned on the scientific and technical progress in this regard enthusiastically described the expected prospects for deployment of the so-called "sixth" technological way to associate with the development of laws nanoworld, biotechnology, development of systems that embody artificial intelligence. However, in most cases, these forecasts today are not fully aligned with the resource capabilities of the planet, not evaluated in the socio-economic terms.

In other research papers, trying to match the expected scientific and technological developments in the future with the resource and environmental realities, there are estimates that are far from optimistic. "As the last report by the Club of Rome, prepared by E. Weizscker and his colleagues – wrote who recently died, our outstanding thinker KV Leskov - even if it is possible to spread the most modern technology worldwide, it will delay the onset of environmental collapse for a few decades. And to assess NN Moses, a disaster may occur already in the middle of the XXI century, so quickly, that make any bailout measures will be late”.

Innovative thinking and highly-talented approaches are required from the designers of the human future and from global policymakers to the development of countries and civilized community, an active search for

PRINCIPlES OF ENERGY AND ECOlOGY DEVElOPMENT FOR XXI CENTURY

By Valery KushlinHead of Department of the Russian Academy of State Service under President of Russian Federation

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fundamentally new solutions, not only in scientific and technological fields, and in the socio-political sphere.

The special United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP - United Nations Environment Programme) in 2007, a report "Perspectives of the global environment» (GEO-4), assessments and conclusions which are completely relevant today. The detailed forecast is given in the report, of developments in the global environment in general and in the integrated world regions - Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, Western Asia. Considered a very wide range of indicators of the environment since 2000 (reference the actual data) and ending with 2050, as the top point of the forecast. The forecast was developed in the context of four hypothetical scenarios presented.

The First scenario - Priority Market (Markets First) based on the assumption that the private sector for active government support will achieve the maximum economic growth with the simultaneous implementation of the best ways to maintain the environment and human welfare.

The Second scenario - Priority Policy (Policy First) comes from the fact that the Government with the active participation of the private and public sectors initiate and implement strong policies to improve the environment and human welfare.

The Third scenario - Priority of Security (Security First) suggests that governments and the private sector, as are competing for control in an effort to improve or maintain human well-being based on special role of rich and powerful in society. This refers to priority access to the utilization of core resources of the environment of those who have power and money.

The Fourth scenario - Priority acceptable or Sustainability (Sustainability First) comes from the fact that civil society and private sector working closely together in the work of improving the environment and human welfare, with emphasis on fairness. The equal weight is given to the environment and socio-economic policy in terms of transparency and legitimacy of all actions.

It is noteworthy that among four international expert community development scenarios found myself (respectable) place and the script that implements the right of the strongest in the world to dictate to everyone else (script Security First). In light of the controversy, aggravated during the global financial crisis, it seems, this scenario begins to attract the attention of the so-called global elite, concentrated in a fairly narrow group of highly developed countries. These forces lead the line for a return to the old economic model and a familiar control scheme global world. In the struggle for exclusive access to the world's resources become increasingly limited. They do not stop perspectives of local and even world wars. Seriously consider the model of world politics, realizing the line to reduce the world population tripled,

and more. This problem, according to the publication in the British weekly newspaper, The Sunday Times, was the focus on non-public seminar, held in May 2010 in New York, which reportedly was attended by many eminent intellectuals of our time. On the direction of the discussion we can assume, based on leaked into print ideas, being articulated at the workshop that the cause of global warming is overpopulation in the world ("too much stuff"), and, they say, it should be reduced by 2 / 3, bringing to 2 billion people that will ensure high quality of life for the remaining of four billion.

This rigid model of the global anti-crisis policy is not an incredible one, it can get the actual distribution, if not starting at the ideological and theoretical level to give a fitting rebuff pseudonym concepts adapted to the continued interest of elites rather than the objectives of global prosperity. This counter should use the most diverse arguments that would convince the thinking part of mankind that a policy of forceful suppression of the weak for the sake of prosperity of a strong minority in the present circumstances is untenable in principle. And because of the literacy level and awareness among the masses of people in the age of the Internet is radically different than in the XIX and even than in the XX century. And especially because the level of ecological imbalance on the planet today is close to catastrophic. The nature is bound to be the most unexpected and most ruthless in revenge for humanity and war anti-social adventures. The case of participation in the world disasters make materials, confirming the realism of this hypothesis.

Returning to the materials of GEO-4, in our opinion, we can’t not to draw conclusions about the futility of mankind not only for the third (the priority of the most powerful), but also the first (priority market) scenarios. Only the second and fourth options scenarios contain hope of changes for the better.

Development in this direction will not be possible if humanity as a whole and, first of all highly developed countries will be less reliance in economic policy on the principle of "methodological individualism" and strengthen guidance on joint actions for the development of all countries in a fundamentally new (less than resource-intensive) production technology and everyday life. Behind the developed countries in socio-economic sense of the country and people, must at the same time do a difficult job to tackle the backlog of "leaders" not by copying the path traversed by the West, and based on fundamentally new opportunities for implementation of technological advances in terms of joint responsibility for the future.

It is known that the critical factor determining the level of air pollution and overall environmental threats, and has always been the growing energy consumption and production. The huge gap between rich and poor countries in terms of providing working and living people with electricity. Where in the world at large as of 2004 electricity consumption per capita is 2,701 kWh, the

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OECD countries - 8,795 kWh, while the average for developing countries - only 1,221 kWh. In the South Asian countries this figure was 628 kilowatt hours per person in Africa south of the Sahara - 478, and the least developed countries - only 119 kWh. Impossible to hide from the fact that the highly developed countries throughout the history of their economic progress has always focused on the growth of energy supply and at a very high rate of energy consumption in per capita terms, helped by their political and economic dominance in the world. These countries have long enjoyed their situation formed by unequal exchange with the colonial and dependent countries, where raw materials from the past to buy at low prices, and the reverse flow of goods processing - at prices inflated. The index of electricity consumption per capita in 2004 was 14,240 kWh in the U.S., Japan - 8,459, whereas in China - 1684, India - 618 Indonesia - 476, but, for example, in Nigeria - 157 and the Sudan - 118 kWh.

In light of the discussion seems to be very difficult to answer the question, what line should follow in the near and more distant future is in their economic, social and environmental policies of the country, behind the advanced countries on key parameters of Economics and STP. For Russia, these data suggests a clear conclusion about the need for accelerated implementation of national policy-oriented innovation and economic development, as key conditions of employment of its independent stance on global, including environmental issues.

The level of energy availability of Russian work and life lags well behind the U.S. and other developed countries. The index of electricity consumption per capita in Russia was in 2004, 6,425 kWh, which is lower than in the U.S. in 2,2 times, and compared with similar climatic conditions of Canada and Norway - respectively 2,9 and 4,2 times . It is clear that solving the problem of overcoming existing gaps only through the reproduction of the western development trajectories will be unrealistic for Russia.

The country faces the need to develop and implement a model of strategic-oriented development at the same time: a) the rapid achievement of high economic position in the world based on the intensity of the transition to an innovative type of development and b) on a consistent nurse fundamentally new technologies and organizational forms of production and life, trying to find new approaches to reducing the burden on the resource potential of nature and the environment in cooperation with other countries.

Note that in our country is still in relatively undisturbed nature is markedly different to the best of what formed the world average. The level of preservation of natural ecosystems in different countries and regions of the world at the turn of the millennia was characterized by experts as follows: Canada and Russia - 65%, China - 20%, Indonesia - 7%, USA - 5%, Europe (excluding Russia) - 4%, India - 1%.

Being included in the decision of urgent global environmental problems, we should once again prove to be just as diligent students "highly developed West." Just picked up its production and scientific and technological capacity in line with national interests, Russia may provide the necessary conceptual influence on the development trajectory of the world as a whole. Today the country has a chance to exercise their territorial natural advantages to develop and implement the development strategy that meets both their specific for a given period of national interests and the new imperatives of the relationship of nature, economy and society on a global scale.

All this can be achieved only on the condition that will be made an essential roll in promoting vysokotvorcheskih approaches to designing and implementing strategic plans for economic, social, cultural and political development, and the main priority of the state in fact will be the development of human potential, based on a high quality of education system and the full support of science and invention.

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1.Научные основы долгосрочной стратегии партнерства цивилизаций

Резолюцией 64-й сессии Генеральной Ассамб-леи ООН от 24.12.2009 г. намечено провести в 2012 г. в Бразилии Конференцию ООН по устойчивому раз-витию РИО+20.

Международный коллектив ученых, сформи-рованный Международным институтом Питирима Сорокина-Николая Кондратьева, подготовил к Кон-ференции ООН по устойчивому развитию доклад «Основы долгосрочной стратегии глобального устой-чивого развития на базе партнерства цивилизаций». Сокращенная версия доклада опубликована на русском, английском и арабском языках и размеще-на в Интернете. Доклад представлен на заседании Круглого стола в Информационном центре ООН 15.03.2011 г., на Международном семинаре в Бейруте 24.03.2011 г., на встречах с общественностью в Сирии 26 и 27.03.2011. Намечена презентация Доклада на IV Астанинском форуме 4.05.2011, Международном научном симпозиуме в Киеве 25-27.05.2011, Круглом столе в рамках 64-й сессии Генеральной Ассамб-леи ООН 15.06.2011, V Цивилизационном форуме в штаб-квартире ЮНЕСКО в Париже 14-16.09.2011 и после доработки с учетом результатов обсужде-ний представить на VI Цивилизационном форуме в рамках Конференции ООН по устойчивому развитию РИО+20 в Бразилии в 2012 г.

В основу Доклада положен Глобальный прогноз «Будущее цивилизаций» на период до 2050 года, разработанный учеными России, Казахстана и дру-гих стран в 2007-2009 гг., опубликованный в 10 частях (включая часть 3 «Энергоэкологическое партнерство цивилизаций», которая обсуждалась на II Цивилиза-ционном форуме в Астане в октябре 2008 г.), пред-ставленный на заседании Круглого стола в рамках 64-й сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН 27.10.2009 и на Цивилизационном форуме «Перспективы раз-вития и стратегия партнерства цивилизаций» в рам-ках ЭКСПО-2010 в Шанхае 12-14.10.2010. Прогноз лег в основу монографии Президента Республики Казахстан Н.А. Назарбаева «Стратегия радикально-го обновления глобального сообщества и партнер-ство цивилизаций», изданной на русском, казахском, английском и китайском языках и представленной

на заседаниях Круглого стола в ООН 27.10.2010 и ЭКСПО-2010 в Шанхае 12.10.2010.

Авторы Доклада исходят из следующих основ-ных положений.

1. С конца XX в. мир вступил в период глубоких глобальных кризисов – энергоэкологического, демо-графического, технологического, экономического, геополитического, социокультурного. Эти кризисы могут быть преодолены лишь на основе волны эпо-хальных инноваций II четверти XXI века, итогом кото-рых может быть цивилизационная революция – ста-новление интегральной гуманистически-ноосферной мировой цивилизации на базе партнерства локаль-ных цивилизаций.

2. В этих условиях нельзя ограничиться частич-ным улучшением существующего миропорядка на базе ранее принятых решений. Движение по инер-ционному пути чревато нарастанием угрозы гло-бальных катастроф, социально-политических столк-новений цивилизаций. Необходима долгосрочная, научно обоснованная стратегия, ориентированная на радикальные трансформации, инновационный прорыв, мобилизующая усилия цивилизаций, госу-дарств, социальных слоев, поколений на преодоле-ние кластера глобальных кризисов и становление интегральной цивилизации – социально, ноосферно и инновационно ориентированной.

3. Долгосрочная стратегия партнерства цивили-заций должна быть конкретизирована в стратегиях трансформации главных составляющих генотипа цивилизаций – в энергоэкологической, демографи-ческой и миграционной, инновационно-технологи-ческой, становления интегрального экономического строя и трансформации глобализации, формирова-ния многополярного мироустройства на базе парт-нерства цивилизаций и государств, становления интегрального социокультурного строя – возвыше-ние науки и креативного инновационного образова-ния, возрождение высокой культуры. Эти стратегии должны опираться на сеть долгосрочных программ и проектов партнерства цивилизаций, на формирова-ние системы институтов и механизмов партнерства цивилизаций и государств при ведущей роли ООН, которая в перспективе может быть трансформирова-на во Всемирную конфедерацию государств и циви-лизаций.

ДОЛГОСРОЧНАЯ СТРАТЕГИЯ ЭНЕРГОЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПАРТНЕРСТВА ЦИВИЛИЗАЦИЙ

Юрий ЯковецПрезидент Международного института П.Сорокина - Н.Кондратьева, Российская Федерация

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Таким образом, впервые ученые 11 стран, 6 цивилизаций представили свое видение долгосроч-ных тенденций развития цивилизаций и обосновали главные контуры долгосрочной стратегии партнер-ства цивилизаций, позволяющей осуществить оп-тимистический, инновационно-прорывной сценарий преодоления глобальных кризисов и становления интегральной, гуманистически-ноосферной цивили-зации.

2. Энергоэкологический кризис I четверти XXI века

Диагноз кризиса. Современный энергоэкологи-ческий кризис не является чем-то случайным и не-предсказуемым. Это закономерный этап цикличной динамики общества и глобального энергосектора. При его диагностике следует учитывать, что:

• энергоэкологический кризис является состав-ным элементом общецивилизационного кризиса в период смены отжившего свой срок индустриальной мировой цивилизации ноосферной интегральной ци-вилизацией, которая станет преобладающей в аван-гардных странах к середине XXI века;

• энергоэкологический кризис неразрывно связан с кризисами других составляющих генотипа цивили-заций – технологическим, демографическим, эконо-мическим, геополитическим и социокультурным;

• современный кризис выражает переходную фазу в смене сверхдолгосрочных и долгосрочных энергоэкологических циклов и завершится с перехо-дом от индустриального энергоэкологического спо-соба производства и потребления к ноосферному способу производства и потребления;

• решающим фактором такого перехода являет-ся широкое распространение достижений техноло-гической революции XXI века, энергосберегающих, экологически чистых технологий 6-го уклада. В этом плане технологическая и энергоэкологическая рево-люции 2-й четверти XXI века неразрывно связаны.

Факторы кризиса. Каковы факторы и особен- ности энергоэкологического кризиса первой четверти XXI века?

1. Энергетический кризис. Важнейшим факто-ром высоких темпов роста мировой экономики II по-ловины XX века было вовлечение в производство но-вых крупных месторождений нефти и газа. Однако к концу века лучшие материковые месторождения уже освоены и быстро истощаются, а добыча переме-щается на морские шельфы, что связано с большим экологическим риском и высокими издержками. Но-вым ресурсом может быть освоение значительных запасов гидратов, но технологически их добыча пока не разработана. Поэтому исчерпание запасов иско-паемого топлива, которое составляет сейчас 81% в мировом балансе потребления энергии, становится все более весомым фактором глобального энергоэ-

кологического кризиса, ограничителем экономичес-кого роста.

Следует учитывать, что до середины XXI века ископаемое топливо останется преобладающим энергоресурсом. Темпы роста альтернативной энер-гетики под влиянием аварии в Японии замедлятся. Основными путями повышения эффективности это-го фактора являются:

• увеличение коэффициента нефтеотдачи, что увеличит извлекаемые запасы нефти;

• применение новых, экологически чистых техно-логий использования угля и сланцев;

• разработка эффективных технологий добычи гидратов;

• изобретение и использование принципиально новых эффективных способов использования топли-ва;

• освоение и распространение энергосберегаю-щих технологий шестого уклада, относительное, а затем и абсолютное сокращение потребления энер-гии в развитых странах, являющихся основными по-требителями энергии. Страны с высокими доходами и доходами выше средних, где проживает 27,5% на-селения мира, потребляли в 2006 году 65,4% энер-гии, тогда как страны с низкими доходами (19,6% на-селения) – всего 5%.

Использование всех этих факторов смягчит тен-денцию исчерпания ископаемого топлива. Но глав-ным путем преодоления энергоэкологического кри-зиса останется повышение доли в мировом балансе возобновляемых и альтернативных источников. Это базисное направление энергоэкологической револю-ции XXI века.

2. Экологический кризис. Если в ХХ веке экологи-ческий фактор не оказывал существенного влияния на экономическую динамику, сказываясь, в основ-ном, на локальном уровне, то в XXI веке он приобрел глобальный характер и становится все более замет-ным тормозом экономического роста и улучшения качества жизни населения. Это находит выражение в нарастающем потоке выбросов парниковых газов в атмосферу, увеличении дефицита пресной воды во многих регионах, вырубке тропических лесов Южной Америки и Африки, падении естественного плодо-родия сельскохозяйственных земель, угрозе радио-активных загрязнений типа аварий на АЭС в Черно-быле и Фукусиме. Соединяясь с неблагополучными экологическими изменениями, этот фактор делает все более реальной угрозу глобальной экологичес-кой катастрофы.

Осознание этой угрозы вынуждает мировое сообщество вырабатывать резервы снижения за-грязнения окружающей среды на пути к ноосфере, гармоничной коэволюции природы и общества. Пос-тавлена цель сократить вдвое выбросы парниковых газов к середине XXI века, но синдром «Фукусимы» делает достижение этой цели менее вероятным.

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Кроме того, подъем экономики в развивающихся странах, как показывает опыт Китая и Индии, связан с многократным увеличением потребления энергии и выбросов парниковых газов. Нарастает поток твер-дых отходов и загрязнений, особенно бытовых отхо-дов в мегаполисах.

Экологический и энергетический кризисы нераз-рывно взаимосвязаны, образуют общую нишу энер-гоэкологического кризиса первой четверти XXI века. Его преодоление возможно во второй четверти века на базе глобальной энергоэкологической револю-ции, перехода к ноосферному энергоэкологическому способу производства и потребления.

3. Фактор удорожания. Вовлечение в производ-ство новых, более эффективных ресурсов было в предыдущие два столетия важнейшим фактором по-вышения эффективности воспроизводства, сниже-ния стоимости продукции.

С последней четверти ХХ века произошел пере-лом тенденции. Средняя цена нефти поднялась с 2,11 долл. за баррель в 1970 г. до 28,21 долл. (в 13.4 раза) в 2000 году (при этом, правда, следует учиты-вать и обесценивание доллара). В начале XXI века эта тенденция продолжилась: в 2008 году цена до-стигла максимума в 146 долл., затем упала до 42 долл., но в последнее время вновь начала повы-шаться, превысив в 2011 году 100 долл. за баррель.

Вместе с быстро растущими экологическими за-тратами это означает, что общество вынуждено все большую массу и долю труда тратить на удовлетво-рение потребностей в энергии и охрану окружающей среды, что сокращает долю ресурсов, направляемых на рост производства и повышение уровня жизни. К тому же резкие колебания цен на энергоносители служат дестабилизирующим фактором в мировой экономике.

4. Кадровые ограничения. Одним из факторов углубления энергоэкологического кризиса являются кадровые ограничения. Они выражаются в:

• значительном сокращении темпов роста тру-доспособного населения и числа занятых, особенно в странах, охваченных депопуляцией (а число таких стран к середине XXI века, по среднему варианту прогноза ООН, превысит 50);

• сокращение доли занятых в материальном производстве за счет чрезмерного разбухания сфе-ры услуг, особенно рыночных;

• отставание в развитии инновационного образо-вания, острый дефицит кадров, способных изобре-тать, осваивать, производить и использовать прин-ципиально новую технику и технологию, осваивать базисные инновации.

5. Кризис управления. Энергоэкологический кри-зис усугубляется тем, что системы управления (как корпоративного, так и государственного и междуна-родного) оказались неспособными предвидеть кри-зисные последствия и адекватно реагировать на

них, во многом потеряли способность к долгосрочно-му стратегическому мышлению и действию. Этому способствовало распространение в конце ХХ века неолиберальных идей и реформ, иллюзия о необ-ходимости ухода государства из экономики и опреде-ляющей роли «невидимой руки рынка». Глобальный энергоэкологический кризис 2008-2009 гг. развеял эти иллюзии и вынудил государства экстренно на-править около 18 трлн. долл. США для спасения терпящих бедствие корпораций, банков, страховых компаний, ТНК. Это привело к значительному росту государственного долга во многих странах и экстрен-ных мер по экономии ресурсов – в том числе выделя-емых на инновационные трансформации и социаль-ное развитие. Это тормозит преодоление кризиса и экономический рост.

Все эти проявления глобального энергоэколо-гического кризиса снижают жизненно необходимые разработки и реализацию долгосрочной научно- образовательной стратегии глобального устойчивого развития, адекватного условиям XXI века и ориенти-рованной на партнерство государств и цивилизаций для адекватного ответа на вызовы нового века.

3. Основные контуры глобальной стратегии энергоэкологического партнерства цивилизаций

На основе разработанных Международным коллективом ученых Глобального прогноза «Буду-щее цивилизаций» на период до 2050 года (включая часть 3 «Экономическое будущее цивилизаций») и Доклада к Конференции ООН РИО+20 «Основы глобальной стратегии устойчивого развития на базе партнерства цивилизаций» можно сделать следую-щие выводы о необходимости и основных контурах глобальной стратегии энергоэкологического парт-нерства цивилизаций.

3.1. Необходимость и особенность долгосрочной глобальной энергоэкологической стратегии.

Современный энергоэкологический кризис носит глобальный характер. Ни одна, даже самая мощная страна, цивилизация или группа стран не может ре-шить их в одиночку. Только совместными усилиями всего глобального сообщества государств и цивили-заций можно преодолеть весьма опасные тенденции и обеспечить переход к ноосферному энергоэкологи-ческому способу производства и потребления. Жиз-ненно необходима глобальная стратегия. Ее особен-ности состоят в следующем.

Во-первых, эта стратегия должна носить долго-срочный характер – до середины столетия, охва-тывая завершение пятого Кондратьевского цикла, становление и развитие шестого цикла. Это обуслов-лено длительностью и глубиной глобальных транс-формаций, масштабом переходного периода от ин-дустриальной к интегральной мировой цивилизации. Однако рекомендации «группы 8», «группы 20»,

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ООН, ориентированные на частичное улучшение преобладающего, но устаревшего миропорядка, на среднесрочную перспективу не дают ориентиров для преодоления кризисных фаз долгосрочных и сверх-долгосрочных циклов.

Во-вторых, глобальную стратегию необходимо ориентировать на инновационно-прорывной сцена-рий, на освоение и распространение в глобальных масштабах базисных и эпохальных инноваций, опре-деляющих содержание энергоэкологической рево-люции XXI века. Полумеры, улучшающие псевдоин-новации способны лишь затянуть кризис, продлить агонию отжившего свой срок индустриального энер-гоэкологического способа производства и потребле-ния. Однако такой подход наталкивается на барьер узости и инерционности мышления, преобладающе-го ныне среди лиц, принимающих решения на нацио-нальном, корпоративном и международном уровнях, консервативно настроенных представителей поколе-ния 90-х годов ХХ века, срок лидерства которого ис-текает. Потребуется смена лидеров, перенос центра тяжести в принятии решений к лидерам поколения 20-х годов XXI века, которое будет преобладать в предстоящие три десятилетия.

В-третьих, стратегия должна носить системный характер, обеспечивать сбалансированную транс-формацию всех сторон общества, всех составляю-щих генотипа цивилизаций – энергетической и экологической, демографической и технологичес-кой, экономической, геополитической и социокуль- турной. Только такой согласованный подход к глу-бинным трансформациям даст нужный эффект, поз-волит осуществить болезненные трансформации в более короткие сроки и с меньшими рисками и по-терями.

В-четвертых, по своим масштабам, пространст-ву действия стратегия является общепланетарной, глобальной. Нет ни одной цивилизации, ни одного го-сударства, которое не испытывало бы на себе ощу-тимое ее влияние, выступая в той или иной роли в процессе осуществления стратегии – экспортера или импортера энергии, динамики мировых цен на нее, пользователей.

В-пятых, важнейшим долгосрочным ориентиром стратегии должно быть существенное сокращение нарастающего разрыва в уровне энергоэкологичес-кого, технологического, экономического и социаль-ного развития между богатыми и бедными странами и цивилизациями. Полюсами богатства и бедности в современном мире являются, с одной стороны, се-вероамериканская, западноевропейская и японская цивилизации, с другой – большая часть стран му-сульманской и буддийской цивилизаций и, особенно, африканская цивилизация. Пропасть между ними достигла крайнего предела, что ставит под вопрос их будущее. Только на основе партнерства цивилиза-ций возможно сократить этот опасный разрыв.

В-шестых, любая стратегия, а тем более долго-срочная, глобальная, может быть успешно осущест-влена лишь при наличии эффективной системы управления ее реализацией. Сейчас такой системы управления практически нет. Единственный глобаль-ный орган, представляющий все цивилизации и поч-ти все государства мира, – ООН – ослабила свою стратегически-инновационную функцию, концентри-руясь на выполнении ранее принятых решений, хотя они во многом не отражают реалии и противоречия новой исторической эпохи. Группировки ведущих государств – «группа 8» и «группа 20» - пытаются частично улучшить преобладающую ныне систему, исходя из собственных интересов. Еще более кон-сервативный подход международных экономических организаций – Международного валютного фонда, Всемирного банка, ВТО, которые, в основном, пред-ставляют и защищают интересы развитых стран и ТНК. К обоснованию стратегических решений в ми-нимальной степени привлекается наука.

Для осуществления долгосрочной глобальной стратегии потребуется сформировать эффективную, долгосрочную систему управления, включающую институты и организации, ориентированные на науч-ную базу стратегических решений.

3.2. Содержание и структура экономической стратегии.

Основным содержанием управления реализа-цией стратегии является система долгосрочных мер, обеспечивающих преодоление глобального энерго-экологического кризиса, крупномасштабное освое-ние энергетических, экологически чистых технологий шестого уклада и повышение энергоэффективности, становление ноосферного энергоэкологического способа производства и потребления и сокращение пропасти в уровне энерговооруженности и энерго-обеспечения богатых и бедных на базе институтов и механизмов партнерства государств и цивилизаций.

Содержание Стратегии должно быть конкретизи-ровано при построении дерева целей, предусматри-вающего в долгосрочной перспективе стабилизацию уровня энергопотребления, повышение доли аль-тернативных и возобновляемых источников энергии до 30-35%, снижение выбросов парниковых газов в полтора-два раза к середине века, сокращение в 3-4 раза разрыва в энерговооруженности труда и энерго-потреблении между странами с высокими и низкими доходами.

Важнейшим направлением реализации Страте-гии является переход к энергосберегающему типу потребления – в производстве, жилищно-коммуналь-ном и домашнем хозяйстве, отказ от энергорасточи-тельных технологий, особенно в развитых странах, стабилизация, а затем снижение общего объема по-требления энергии по планете (чему будут способст-вовать сокращение темпов прироста населения и освоение энергосберегающих технологий). В то же

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время для бедных стран с низким уровнем энерго- потребления важнейшей задачей остается его повы-шение как основы экономического роста и преодоле-ния отсталости.

Поскольку ископаемое топливо останется преоб-ладающим источником энергии, необходимо предус-мотреть меры по его сбережению с учетом интересов будущих поколений, повышению степени извлечения из недр и глубины переработки, освоению новых ис-точников (гидратов, сланцев и т.п.).

Магистральным направлением реализации Стра-тегии является расширение использования возобнов-ляемых и альтернативных источников энергии, прежде всего наукоемких – водородной энергии с топливными элементами, солнечной энергии, биотоплива новых поколений и т.п. Наряду с малыми автономными энер-гогенераторами, включая малые ГЭС, ветровые стан-ции, возможно также сооружение крупных приливных станций по берегам Охотского моря.

Следует ожидать сокращения темпов роста, а воз-можно, и сокращение объема и доли в производстве энергии АЭС под влиянием аварии в Фукусиме.

Постепенное сокращение выбросов парниковых газов в атмосферу требует радикальных перемен, как в структуре энергопотребления, так и массового использования безотходных и малоотходных техно-логий, а также отработки механизма стимулирова-ния снижения выбросов, введения платежей за за-грязнения как инструмента изъятия экологической антиренты и ее использования для финансирования освоения и распространения экологически чистых технологий, особенно в развивающихся странах. По-требуется создание системы экомониторинга, изме-ряющего источники и объемы загрязнений.

4. Механизмы и институты реализации Стратегии

4.1. Механизмы реализации стратегии.Чтобы Стратегия стала выполняемым докумен-

том, а не суммой добрых пожеланий, надо создать эффективные механизмы ее осуществления. Каковы основные элементы этих механизмов:

1. Система долгосрочного и среднесрочного про-гнозирования и стратегического планирования.

Периодически (примерно раз в 5 лет) необходи-мо разрабатывать и уточнять долгосрочные прогно-зы развития мирового энергосектора, происходящих в нем сдвигов, а также проводить мониторинг сопо-ставления прогнозных и фактических траекторий. На этой основе определяется система приоритетов для реализации инновационно-прорывного сцена-рия прогноза и разрабатывается долгосрочный (с горизонтом 10-15 лет) стратегический план, который концентрирует ресурсы на сбалансированной транс-формации энергосектора мира, а также отдельных

стран. Эта работа может осуществляться на базе глобального и национальных энергоэкологических балансов.

2. Долгосрочные глобальные, международные и национальные программы являются основными инструментами реализации Стратегии. Так, в США были приняты долгосрочные программы по водород-ной и альтернативной энергетике; в ЕС – водородная платформа с горизонтом до 2050 года. Международ-ный коллектив ученых предлагает для реализации Стратегии глобальную программу «Чистая энергия» и международную энергоэкологическую программу «Энергия Арктики», которая может реализоваться при координирующей роли Ямало-Ненецкого авто-номного округа и при содействии Международного стратегического инновационно-технологического альянса.

По каждой программе необходимо логично по-строенное дерево целей, система проектов, обеспе-чивающих достижение целей, источники финансиро-вания, система управления выполнением программ.

3. Финансирование программ – необходимое ус-ловие их успешного выполнения, реализации Стра-тегии энергоэкологического партнерства. Для этого могут быть использованы как средства Глобального экологического фонда, так и инвестиции заинтересо-ванных государств и компаний, кредиты Всемирного банка и ведущих международных и национальных кредитных организаций. При этом следует учитывать, что проекты в области энергетики обычно отличают-ся длительностью сроков окупаемости, а в области экологии вообще могут быть не осуществлены без государственной и международной поддержки. Сле-дует воспользоваться предложенным Международ-ным стратегическим инновационно-технологическим альянсом механизмом проведения международных конкурсов и аукционов инновационных проектов на базе Международной биржи инновационных проек-тов.

На заседании Круглого стола в рамках Всемир-ного саммита РИО+20 в Йоханнесбурге в 2002 году я предложил механизм финансового обеспечения гло-бального устойчивого развития за счет отчислений от рентных доходов – мировой ренты, экологической антиренты и финансовой квазиренты. Это предложе-ние было поддержано участниками заседания Круг-лого стола, но не получило отклика в ООН. Стоило бы вернуться к этому вопросу и учесть вероятность введения для финансирования глобальных и между-народных программ и проектов за счет изъятия ми-ровой экологической антиренты – своего рода «зеле-ного налога», подобно тому, который введен в Индии. Это потребует от государства и компаний снижать выбросы парниковых газов и в то же время создает достаточные источники финансирования глобальных и международных экологических программ, а также

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для поддержки энергоэкологических программ в бед-ных странах. Подобное предложение обосновано в докладе Нобелевского лауреата по экономике Джо-зефа Стиглица на XV Всемирном конгрессе Между-народной экономической организации в Страсбурге в июне 2008 года.

Нынешние резкие колебания мировых цен на энергоносители во многом носят спекулятивный ха-рактер, ведут к крупным масштабам международных перераспределений фондов, делают ненадежными перспективные расчеты эффективности структурных сдвигов, использования новой техники и технологий в энергосекторе. Цены перестают быть измерите-лями стоимости и эффективности, превращаются в инструмент биржевых спекуляций, источник хаоти-ческих колебаний. Поэтому необходима выработка механизмов международного регулирования дина-мики мировых цен, чтобы повысить их устойчивость и предсказуемость.

4.2. Институты реализации глобальной энерго-экологической стратегии.

Предложенные механизмы реализации долго-срочной глобальной международной стратегии должны опираться на сеть адекватных масштабам стратегии и ее механизмам международных органи-зационно-правовых институтов. О каких институтах идет речь?

1. Формирование в рамках ООН организации, ответственной за разработку и выполнение глобаль-ной стратегии энергоэкологического партнерства цивилизаций. Сейчас такой организации нет. ЮНЕП отвечает в основном за разработку прогнозов эколо-гического развития и поддержку некоторых экологи-ческих проектов. Финансированием международных и некоторых национальных проектов занимается Глобальный экологический фонд, Международное энергетическое агентство, представляющее в основ-ном развитые страны (ОЭСР), периодически публи-кует экологические прогнозы.

Необходимо создать единый глобальный между-народный орган, который мог бы выступить заказчи-ком Глобальных энергоэкологических программ и проектов и отвечающий за их использование. Воз-можны два варианта: либо создать по решению Все-мирного саммита или Генеральной ассамблеи ООН новую специализированную энергоэкологическую организацию, либо значительно расширить компе-тенцию ЮНЕП, поставить под ее эгиду Глобальный экологический фонд. Второй вариант представляет-ся более подходящим и быстро реализуется, но он потребует радикального пересмотра компетенции и структуры ЮНЕП. В функции этого органа можно ввести формирование глобального механизма реа-гирования на чрезвычайные ситуации и природные катастрофы типа землетрясений в Гаити, Японии, цунами в Тихом океане, извержения вулканов в

Исландии, экологической катастрофы в Мексикан-ском заливе и т.п.

Глобальное энергоэкологическое право – новая отрасль международного права, регулирующая сис-тему правовых отношений в области взаимодейст-вия государств и ТНК, в том числе при реализации энергоэкологических программ и проектов, а также реакцию на чрезвычайные ситуации в этой сфере.

Ряд элементов этого права уже существует, нап- ример, в виде международных соглашений о запре-те испытаний и распространения ядерного оружия и других средств массового уничтожения. Потребу-ются также специализированные международные судебные органы для разрешения споров в этой сфере, органы исполнения судебных решений и конт- роля за соблюдением принятых норм глобального экологического права (типа экологической полиции).

Если будет принято решение о введении меха-низма возмещения экологического ущерба (изъятие мировой экологической антиренты), то потребуется специальный механизм мониторинга объема и кон-кретных источников загрязнений.

Специализированный орган потребуется и для выполнения функции международного мониторинга и регулирования динамики мировых цен на энерго-ресурсы, применения глобального антимонопольно-го законодательства в этой сфере.

Экспериментальной базой для создания меха-низмов будущего глобального права может служить нормативно-правовая база Европейского союза в ре-гулировании энергетики и экологии. Следует с этой точки зрения изучить накопленный опыт, возможнос-ти и перспективы его использования в глобальных масштабах.

Финансовые институты – необходимое усло-вие реализации Стратегии энергоэкологического партнерства цивилизаций, ее программ и проектов. Сейчас функцию регулирования глобальных финан-сово-кредитных отношений выполняют в основном Международный валютный фонд, Всемирный банк и менее известный Фонд финансовой стабильности. Существует ряд организаций типа Международной финансовой корпорации, Европейского банка рекон-струкции и развития и т.п. Но во всех этих организа-циях превалируют и «заказывают музыку» богатые страны, внесшие наибольший финансовый вклад в фонды этих организаций. Интересы стран, представ-ляющих большинство человечества, нередко игнори-руются либо нарушаются. Насущной задачей являет-ся демократизация деятельности этих организаций. Шаги в этом направлении были предложены «груп-пой 20», однако они оказались малодейственными.

Стоит обсудить вопрос о создании, наряду с Гло-бальным экологическим фондом, Всемирного энерго- экологического банка реконструкции и развития, воз-ложив на него функции поддержки не только эколо-

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гических проектов, но и проектов по преодолению поляризации в этой сфере, развитию энергетической базы и энергоэкологических технологий в отстаю-щих, бедных странах («полюса бедности») с учетом экологических требований.

Кадровое обеспечение реализации Стратегии, ее программ и проектов должно опираться на сеть существующих и вновь создаваемых образователь-ных и консультативных институтов. Речь идет как о кадрах разработчиков и исследователей энергоэко-логических программ и проектов, так и о кадрах на-циональных и международных чиновников и руко-водящих работников корпораций, осуществляющих руководство, выступающих в роли их заказчиков и приемщиков полученных результатов и практическо-го использования этих результатов.

Энергоэкологические программы и проекты, тем более международные, обладают значительной спецификой и требуют специальных знаний. Сей-час таких знаний не хватает, что служит источником многочисленных ошибок и просчетов, провалов ряда проектов, при осуществлении базисных инноваций в этой сфере.

Исправить положение можно было бы как ис-пользованием специальных программ образования в ведущих университетах мира, так и путем орга-низации переподготовки и дополнительного про-фессионального образования на базе Глобального инновационного Интернет-университета (ГИИУ) в партнерстве с ведущими университетами. По энергоэкологической программе «Энергия Севера» намечается организовать профессиональное об-разование на базе создаваемого Арктического на-учно-образовательного комплекса в партнерстве с ГИИУ и Санкт-Петербургским государственным по-литехническим университетом.

Что касается международных чиновников, то здесь может оказаться полезным университет ООН с его филиалами. В любом случае стоило бы уста-новить порядок, согласно которому к управлению в международной энергоэкологической сфере допус-каются по результатам публичных экзаменов после специализированного профессионального обучения.

Формирование механизмов и институтов реали-зации долгосрочной стратегии энергоэкологического партнерства цивилизаций поможет достижению це-лей Стратегии в более сжатые сроки и с относитель-но меньшими затратами, будет способствовать бо-лее быстрому преодолению кризиса и становлению ноосферного энергоэкологического способа про-изводства и потребления не только в авангардных странах, но и в масштабах планеты.

5. Глобальный энергоэкологический баланс

Разработка и выполнение долгосрочной гло-бальной стратегии энергоэкологического партнер-

ства цивилизаций потребует создания и использова-ния новых прогнозно-аналитических инструментов, ведущее место среди которых займет глобальный энергоэкологический баланс в разрезе цивилизаций и ведущих стран.

Его главное преимущество – интегральный под-ход к сбалансированной динамике процессов энерге-тической, экологической, экономической, технологи-ческой, демографической динамики.

Развивая идеи моделей input-output и мировой экономики Василия Леонтьева и используемого на практике топливно-энергетического баланса, энерго- экологический баланс идет значительно дальше, пронизывая всю структуру экономики и предостав-ляя критерии для оценки сбалансированности при-нимаемых стратегических решений и результатов их осуществления.

Методология построения энергоэкологического баланса предусматривает выделение четырех бло-ков:

• основные макроэкономические показатели – динамика численности населения, ВВП по ППС в постоянных ценах (объем и на душу населения), средний технологический уклад (экспертная оценка);

• энергетический баланс – потребление энергии в тоннах нефтяного эквивалента (объем и на душу населения), доля ископаемого топлива в структуре энергопотребления, чистый импорт (экспорт) энергии в % к ее потреблению;

• экологический баланс – эмиссия CO2 (объем,

на душу населения и на тонну энергопотребления);• энергоэкологическая эффективность – ВВП по

ППС на тонну потребления энергии, на тонну эмис-сии CO

2 и на сумму потребления энергии и эмиссии

CO2.

Данные для построения баланса в ретроспекти-ве (кроме среднего технологического уклада) имеют-ся в публикациях Всемирного банка, ООН и Между-народного энергетического агентства.

На основе данных демографического прогноза ООН, прогноза Международного энергетического агенства и данных Всемирного банка разработан (с участием аспиранта РАГС Ермолаева П.В.) экс-периментальный глобальный энергоэкологический баланс на перспективу до 2050 года (табл.1).

Стоимостные показатели (ВВП по ППС) приня-ты в постоянных ценах 2005 г., которые могут суще-ственно отличаться от показателей в текущих ценах или при иной временной базе. Средний технологи-ческий уклад определен на базе экспертной оценки. Темпы роста ВВП на перспективу дифференцируют-ся с учетом падения темпов в первой четверти XXI века (на нисходящей фазе пятого Кондратьевского цикла) и ускорения темпов на восходящей волне ше-стого цикла во второй четверти наступившего столе-тия.

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Таблица 1Долгосрочный прогноз динамики глобального энергосектора

на основе энергоэкологического балансаА – инерционный сценарий,

Б – инновационно-прорывной сценарий

1990 2000 2007Сцена-

рий2020 2030 2040 2050

2050 в % к 2007

I блокНаселение, млн. человек

ВВП по ППС, млрд. долл.

на душу населения, долл.

Средний технологический уклад (оценка)

5259

35968

6913

3,6

6057

47971

7883

3,8

6610

63092

9530

3,9

АБАБАБАБ

7675785178000885001016011210

4,14,3

83098752950001085001143012400

4,34,7

88019686

1080001310001227013520

4,55,0

9150104611200001530001311014630

4,75,2

138158190243138153113133

II блокПотребление энергии, млн. т н.э.

на душу населения, т н.э.

Доля ископаемого топлива, %

8556

1,63

81

9733

1,61

80

11665

1,76

81

АБАБАБ

14000131001,821,677976

17000150002,051,917771

18600160002,111,657564

19500162002,131,557157

168138121888870

III блокВыбросы СО

2, млн. т

на душу населения, т

на 1 т потребления энергии, т

22520

4,3

2,63

24688

4,1

2,54

30749

4,6

2,64

АБАБАБ

3640031000

4,74,02,602,37

3880026000

4,73,622,281,53

3700021000

4,22,21,991,25

3420016000

3,71,51,750,99

1115281336637

IV блокЭнергетическая эффективность, долл/ т н.э.Экологическая эффективность, долл/ т СО

2

Энергоэкологическая эффектив-ность, долл/ т н.э. + т СО

2

4,20

1,42

1,21

4,92

1,94

1,39

5,44

2,05

1,49

АБ

АБ

АБ

5,576,76

2,142,84

1,551,98

5,597,23

2,454,17

1,702,65

5,818,19

2,926,24

1,943,54

6,159,44

3,517,56

2,234,75

113174

170466

150319

Исследование тенденций и перспектив развития мирового энергосектора на базе блоков глобального энергоэкологического баланса показало следующие результаты.

1. В перспективе темпы прироста населения в мире существенно сократятся (с 1,18% в 2005-2010 гг. до 0,34% по среднему варианту прогноза ООН в 2045-2050 гг.), что будет способствовать сокращению темпов роста потребления энергии. В то же время падение доли населения в трудоспособном возрасте (особенно в странах с депопуляцией – России, Укра-ине, Японии, большинстве стран Западной и Восточ-ной Европы) станет тормозом роста ВВП и, следо-

вательно, энергоэкологической эффективности. При инновационно-прорывном сценарии это противоре-чие может быть разрешено на основе многократного повышения темпов роста производительности труда в результате широкого распространения технологий шестого уклада. Темпы прироста ВВП в реальном из-мерении также замедлятся по сравнению со II поло-виной XX в. – при обоих сценариях. Это обусловлено замедлением темпов роста населения и притока за-нятых, а также все более ощутимым влиянием огра-ниченности и удорожанием вовлекаемых в произ-водство минеральных и других природных ресурсов и растущими вложениями в экологические проекты.

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ЛИТЕРАТУРА:

1. Энергоэкологическое будущее цивилизаций. Часть 3 Глобального прогноза «Будущее цивилизаций» на период до 2050 года. М.: МИСК, 2009.

2. Прогноз и стратегия энергоэкологического партнерства России, Казахстана и ЕврАзЭС. Часть 10 Гло-бального прогноза «Будущее цивилизаций» на период до 2050 года. М.: МИСК, 2009.

3. Кузык Б.Н., Яковец Ю.В. Глобальная энергоэкологическая революция. М.: ИНЭС, 2007.4. Кузык Б.Н., Яковец Ю.В. Россия: стратегия перехода к водородной энергетике. М.:ИНЭС, 2008.5. Назарбаев Н.А. Стратегия радикального обновления глобального сообщества и партнерство цивилиза-

ций. Астана: 2009.6. Возобновляемая и альтернативная энергетика: анализ мировых тенденций, опыт использования, энер-

гоэкологический баланс. М.: РАЕН, 2010.7. Яковец Ю.В. Глобальные экономические трансформации XXI века. М.: Экономика, 2011.8. Яковец Ю.В. Долгосрочный прогноз развития энергосектора мира и России на базе энергоэкологическо-

го баланса. М.: МИСК, 2011.9. Основы долгосрочной стратегии глобального устойчивого развития на базе партнерства цивилизаций.

Доклад Международного коллектива ученых. Сокращенная версия. М.: МИСК, 2011.10. Долгосрочная стратегия партнерства цивилизаций. Электронная хрестоматия. М.: МИСК-ИНЭС, 2011.

При инерционном сценарии можно ожидать увеличе-ния объема ВВП к 2050 г. в 1,9 раза (на душу населе-ния - на 38%), при инновационно-прорывном – в 2,43 раза (на душу – на 53%). Указанные выше ограни-чения будут частично компенсироваться ускорением и повышением эффективности научно-технического прогресса в связи с освоением и распространением шестого технологического уклада.

2. Темпы прироста потребления энергии на душу населения сейчас чрезмерно высоки и в перспек-тиве должны быть минимизированы, а к середине века принять отрицательное значение в результате распространения энергосберегающих технологий, уменьшения энергорасточительства в развитых странах, особенно на транспорте, в энергетике и жи-лищно-коммунальном хозяйстве. Общий объем по-требления энергии в мире за 43 года увеличится на 68% по инерционному сценарию и на 38% по инно-вационно-прорывному в связи с высокими темпами роста потребления энергии в отстающих и быстро развивающихся странах и цивилизациях.

В условиях нарастающего дефицита ископаемо-го топлива во второй четверти XXI века энергетичес-кий баланс может быть поддержан лишь за счет опе-режающего роста использования возобновляемых и альтернативных источников энергии, доля которых к концу периода может достигнуть 30% при осущест-влении инновационно-прорывного сценария.

3. Эмиссия парниковых газов в атмосферу в бли-жайшие десятилетия будет увеличиваться за счет

роста в быстро развивающихся странах при сниже-нии в развитых странах. Во второй четверти века ве-роятен перелом тенденции, хотя достичь поставлен-ной цели снижения эмиссии на 50% против 2007 г. к середине века чрезвычайно сложно из-за роста энергопотребления и эмиссии в быстро развиваю-щихся странах.

4. Увеличение глобальной энергоэффектив- ности в долгосрочной перспективе вряд ли будет существенным в связи с замедлением темпов при-роста ВВП, существенным приростом потребления энергии. В то же время будет наблюдаться опере-жающий рост экологической эффективности, осо-бенно при инновационно-прорывном сценарии (в 4,66 раз). Это обусловит высокие темпы повышения энергоэкологической эффективности (в 1,5 по инер-ционному сценарию и в 3,2 раза по инновационно- прорывному).

В ближайшие полтора-два десятилетия, вероят-но, будет преобладать инерционный сценарий. При формировании и последовательной реализации глобальной стратегии энергоэкологического парт-нерства цивилизаций возможны реализация инно-вационно-прорывного сценария и достижение пос-тавленных стратегических целей. Опыт Германии показывает, что перелом негативных тенденций воз-можен. При инерционном сценарии и отсутствии гло-бальной стратегии будут нарастать противоречия и конфликты, угрозы экологической катастрофы.

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1. Scientific bases of civilisations long-term partnership strategy

It is planned to hold the United Nations Conference on sustainable development "RIO-20" in Brazil in 2012, by the resolution of 64-th session of the United Nations General Assembly from 24.12.2009.

The international collective of scientists, formed by the International institute of Pitirim Sorokin - Nikolay Kondratyev, has prepared the report "The bases of long-term strategy of global sustainable development on the basis of partnership of civilisations" for the United Nations Conference on sustainable development. The brief survey of the report is published in Russian, English and Arabian languages and is placed in the Internet. The report is presented at the Round table session in the United Nations Information centre on 15.03.2011, at the International seminar in Beirut - on 24.03.2011, at meetings with the public in Syria on 26 and 27.03.2011. The Report presentation is planned at Astana IV-th forum on 4.05.2011, the International scientific symposium in Kiev - on 25-27.05.2011, the Round table within the framework of 64-th session of the United Nations General Assembly - on 15.06.2011, V-th Civilization forum in the UNESCO headquarters in Paris - on 14-16.09.2011 and, after completion, taking into account the results of discussions, to be represented on VI-th civilization forum within the limits of the United Nations Conference on sustainable development "RIO-20" frameworks in Brazil in 2012.

The Global forecast "Future of civilisations" for the period till 2050 is put in the Report basis, had been developed by scientists of Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries in 2007-2009, and has been published in 10 parts (including part 3 "Energy-ecological partnership of civilisations", which has been discussed on II-nd Civilization forum in Astana city in October, 2008), presented on the Round table session within the 64-th session of the United Nations General Assembly frameworks on 27.10.2009 and on Civilization forum "Prospects of development and strategy of partnership of civilisations" within the EXPO-2010 frameworks in Shanghai on 12-14.10.2010.

The forecast has been put in the basis of the President of the Republic Kazakhstan N. A. Nazarbayev monograph "Strategy of global community radical renovation and partnership of civilisations", published in Russian, Kazakh, English and Chinese languages and presented on the Round table sessions in the United

Nations on 27.10.2010 and EXPO-2010 in Shanghai on 12.10.2010.

Authors of the Report start with the following substantive provisions.

1. The world has entered the period of deep global crises in the end of XX-th century - energy-ecological, demographic, technological, economic, geopolitical, and social-cultural. These crises can be overcome, based on the wave of epoch-making innovations of the II-nd quarter of the XXI-st century, which result could be the civilization revolution - formation of integrated humanistic-noosphere world civilisation on the basis of local civilisations partnership only.

2. In these conditions, it is impossible to be limited to partial improvement of existing world order on the base of decisions, have been made earlier. Movement on an inertial way is fraught with threat of global accidents, social-political collisions of civilisations increase. The long-term, scientifically proved strategy, focused on radical transformations, innovative breakthrough, enlisting efforts of civilisations, states, social strata, generations on the global crises cluster overcoming and formation of integrated civilisation - socially, noosphere and innovatively focused, is necessary .

3. Long-term strategy of civilisations partnership should be concretised in the strategies of the main components of civilisations genotype transformation - energy-ecological, demographic and migratory, innovative-technological, formation of integrated economic system and transformation of globalisation, formation of multipolar world order on the basis of partnership of civilisations and the states, formation of integrated social-cultural system - rising of science and creative innovative education, revival of the high culture. These strategies should lean against the network of long-term programs and projects of partnership of civilisations, on formation of system of institutes and mechanisms of partnership of civilisations and the states under the leading part of the United Nations that can be transformed to the World states and civilisations confederation in the long term.

Thus, scientists from 11 countries, 6 civilisations have presented their vision of long-term tendencies of development of civilisations and have proved the main contours of the long-term strategy of partnership of civilisations, allowing optimistic, innovatively-breaking-through scenario of overcoming of global crises and formation of integrated, humanistic-noospheric civilisations carrying out.

lONG-TERM STRATEGY OF ENERGY-ECOlOGICAl PARTNERSHIP OF CIVIlIZATIONS

By Yury YakovetsThe President of the International institute of P. Sorokin - N. Kondratyev, Russian Federation

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2. Power-Ecological Crisis of the I-st quarter of XXI century

Diagnosis of the crisis. A contemporary power-ecological crisis is not something occasional and unpredictable. This is a logical stage of the cycle dynamics of the society and global power sector. While diagnosing it one should take into account that:

A power-ecological crisis is an integral part of the civilized crisis during a period of shift of outdated industrial world civilization of noospheric integral civilization, which will be prevailing in the progressive countries by the middle of XXI century;

A power-ecological crisis inseparably connected with crises of other genotype components of civilizations – technological, demographical, economical, geopolitical and social-cultural;

A contemporary crises expresses a transition phase in shifting of excessive long-term and long-term power-ecological cycles and will be finished with transition from an industrial power-ecological way of production and consumption to noospheric way of production and consumption;

A critical factor of such transition is a wide spread of achievements of technological revolution of XXI century, energy-saving, ecologically pure technologies of the 6-th mode. In this context, technological and power-ecological revolutions of the 2-nd quarter of XXI century are inseparably tied up.

Factors of the crisis. What are the factor and peculiarities of the power-ecological crisis of the first quarter of XXI century?

Power crisis. The most important factor of high rates of growth of the world economy of the II half of XX century was involvement of new large oil and gas fields in production. However, by the end of the century, the best continent fields have been already developed and are rapidly exhausting, and production is shifting to the sea shelf that is connected with a big environmental risk and high costs. A new resource might be development of considerable reserves of hydrates but in technological terms, their production is not yet developed. Therefore, depletion of reserves of fossil energy, which is now 81% in the world balance of energy consumption, is becoming a more critical factor of the global power-ecological crisis, stop of the economical growth.

One should take into account that until the mid of XXI century, fossil energy will remain a prevailing power recourse. Rates of growth of alternative energetics under the influence of crash in Japan will be slow down. Primary ways of increase of efficiency of this factor are:

Increasing of ratio of oil recovery that will expand extracted reserves of oil;

Application of new, ecologically pure technologies of use of coal and shists;

Development of effective technologies of hydrates production;

Invention and use of principally new effective ways of fuel use;

Development and expansion of energy saving technologies of the 6-th mode, relative and then an absolute reduction of power consumption in the developed countries being primary consumers of power. The countries with high income and income above average, where 27,5% world population live, in 2006 consumes 65,4% of power, whereas the countries with low income (19,6% of population) – all in all 5%.

The use of all these factors will soften a tendency of depletion of fossil energy. But the main way of overcoming of power-ecological crisis will be and remain an increase of share in the world balance of renewable and alternative sources. This is a basic direction of power-ecological revolution of XXI century.

Environmental crisis. If in XX century an environmental factor did not considerably impact on economical dynamics, resulted basically in local level, then in XXI century it acquired a global character and becomes a more visible restraint of economical growth and improvement of life quality of population. It is expressed in the growing flow of emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, increase of deficit of fresh water in many regions, cutover of tropic forests in South America and Africa, drop of natural fertility of agricultural lands, threat of radioactive contaminants like disaster at the Atomic Power Station in Chernobyl and Fukushima. Having connected with unfavorable environmental changes, this factor makes a threat to the global environmental disaster more real.

Awareness of this threat forces the world community to work out reserves of reduction of contamination of environment towards the noosphere, harmonious coevolution of nature and society. There set up a goal to two times cut emission of greenhouse gases by the middle of XXI century, but Fukushima syndrome makes achievement of this goal low probable. In addition, growth of economy in the developing countries as experience оf China and India shows, is connected with multiple increase of energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases. A flow of solid wastes and contaminants is growing, especially consumer wastes in the megapolices.

Environmental and power crises are inseparably interrelated, form a common niche of power-ecological crisis of the first quarter of XXI century. Its overcoming would be possible in the second quarter of the century on the basis of global power-ecological revolution, transfer to the noosphere power-ecological way of production and consumption.

Factor of appreciation. Involvement of new, more effective recourses in production was an important factor of increase of effectiveness of reproduction, reduction of the cost of product in the two previous centuries.

From the last quarter of XX century there occurred a turning point in tendency. An average price of oil has

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been increased from 2,11 dollars per barrel in 1970 to 28,21 dollars (by 13.3 times) in 2000 (at that, one should take into account also depreciation of the dollar). At the beginning of XXI century this tendency continued: in 2008, a price reached a maximum, 146 dollars, then dropped to 42 dollars, but recently it started again to increase, having been exceeded in 2011, 100 dollars per barrel.

Along with rapidly growing environmental costs, this means that a society is forced to spend a large mass and labor share to meet the needs in the power and environmental protection that reduces a share of resources aimed at the growth of production and improvement of living standards. In addition, sharp fluctuations of prices for energy carriers serve as a destabilizing factor in the world economy.

Personnel restrictions. One of the factors of deepening of power-ecological crisis is personnel restrictions. They are expressed in:

Considerable reduction of rates of growth of employable population and a number of employed, especially in the countries covered by depopulation (according to UN’s average estimate option, a number of such countries will exceed 50);

Reduction of a share of employed in the material production at the expense of excessive expansion of service sphere, especially market ones;

Arrearage in development of innovation education, cute deficit of personnel capable to invent, develop, produce and use a principal new technology and techniques, develop basic innovations.

A crisis of management. A power-ecological crises is deepened by the fact that then systems of management (both corporate and state and international) turned out to be incapable to foresee crisis consequences and to adequately respond to them, to a large extent, they lost capability to long-term strategic thinking and action. This was conditioned by dissemination of neoliberal ideas and reforms at the end of XX century, illusions about necessity of coming out of the state from economy and determining role of “invisible hand of the market”. A global power-ecological crisis of 2008-2009 dispersed these illusions and forced the states to urgently allocate about 18 billions of US dollars to save corporations, banks, insurance companies, TNK under disaster. This led to considerable growth of state debt in many countries and emergency measures on economy of resources – including those allocated for innovation transformations and social development. This hinders overcoming of crisis and economical growth.

All these expressions of a global power and ecological crisis lower vital developments and implementation of long-term scientific and educational strategy of global sustainable development, adequate to the conditions of XXI century and oriented at partnership of states and civilizations for an adequate response to the challenges of the new century.

3. The main contours of global strategy of energy environmental partnership of civilizations

On the basis of developed by the International team of scientists the Global forecast “Future of civilization” for the period until 2050 year (including part 3 “Economic future of civilization” and the Report to the Conference UN RIO+20 “Foundations of global strategy of stable development on the basis of civilizations’ partnership” there could be done the following conclusions about the necessity and main contours of global strategy of energy environmental partnership of civilizations.

3.1. The necessity and peculiarities of long-term global energy environmental strategy.

Modern energy environmental crisis has a global character. Even the most powerful country, civilization or group of countries cannot solve them alone. Only by joint efforts of the entire global community of nations and civilizations we can overcome very dangerous tendencies and provide the transition to the noosphere energy and ecological method of production and consumption. The global strategy is vital necessary. Its peculiarities are following:

Firstly, this strategy should have long-term character – till the middle of the century covering completing of the fifth Kondratyev cycle, becoming and developing of the sixth cycle. This is due to the length and depth of global transformations, scale of transition from industrial to integral world civilization. However, recommendations of “the group 8”, “the group 20”, UN, orientated for partial improvement of predominant but obsolete world order, for medium term prospect do not give landmark for overcoming of crisis phase of long term and ultra long cycles.

Secondly, it is necessary to focus global strategy on innovative and breakthrough scenery, on developing and distributing in global scales basis and epochal innovations, defining the contest of energy environmental revolution of the XXI century. Measures improving pseudo-innovations can only prolong the crisis, extend the agony outlived its term of industrial energy environmental mode of production and consumption. However, such approach meets the barrier of narrowness and inertia of thinking, prevailing today among people taking decisions in national, corporate and international levels, conservatively turned representatives of the 90th years XX century generation, the leadership term of which expires. It will need change of leaders, shift of focus in decision-making to the leaders of the 20th years XXI century generation, which will dominate in the nearest three decades.

Thirdly, the strategy should have systematical character, provide balanced transformation of all sides of the society, all components of the civilization’s genotype - energy and environmental, demographic and technological, economic, geopolitical and sociocultural. Only such coordinated approach to deep transformations

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gives necessary effect, allows completing painful transformations in shorter time and with minimal risks and loss.

Fourthly, the strategy is planetary, global on its scale, space. There is not any civilization, any country which does not feel its influence performing in a particular role in the process of implementing the strategy - exporter or importer of energy, dynamic of world its prices, users.

Fifthly, the most important long term landmark of the strategy should be a significant reduction of the growing gap in the level of energy environmental, technological, economic and social development between rich and poor countries and civilizations. Poles of wealth and poverty in modern world are from the one side North American, European and Japanese civilizations and from the other side – the greater part of countries from Muslim and Buddhist civilizations, and particularly, African civilization. The gulf between them has reached the extreme bound that calls into question their future. This dangerous gulf can be reduced only on the basis of civilizations’ partnership.

Sixthly, any strategy, and the more long term, global, can be successfully implemented only if there will be effective system of its realization management. There is almost not such system of management nowadays. The only global body representing all civilizations and almost all countries of the world is UN, it has weaken its strategic and innovative function, concentration on implementing of earlier decisions, although they do not reflect in most cases realities and contradictions of the new historical epoch. Groups of leading countries – “the group 8” and “the group 20” – try to improve partly the prevailing current system according to their own interests. Even more conservative approach of international economic organizations - International Monetary Fund, World Bank, WTO, which mainly represent and protect interests of developed countries and TNK. Science is involved into substantiation of the strategic decisions in minimal degree.

For implementing long term strategy it is necessary to form effective, long term management system including institutes and organizations orientated scientific base of strategic decisions.

3.2. The content and structure of economic strategies.

The main content of realization strategy management is the system of long term measures, providing overcoming of global energy environmental crisis, large-scale development of energetic, ecologically clean technologies of the sixth mode and raising of energy efficiency, developing of noosphere, energy environmental mode of production and consumption, reducing the gulf in the level of installed power and energy of rich and poor on the basis of institutes and mechanisms of countries’ partnership and civilizations.

The content of the strategy should be specified in the construction of goals tree, providing in long term

perspective stabilization of energy consumption level, increasing the proportion of alternative and renewable source of energy to 30-35%, decreasing of greenhouse gas emissions in 1,5-2 times to the middle of the century, reducing in 3-4 times the gap in installed power of labor and energy consumption between countries with high and low income.

The most important direction in the realization of the Strategy is the transition to energy-saving type of consumption – in production, housing and utilities, and household, rejection from wasteful energy technologies, mainly in developed countries, stabilizing and then reducing of the total volume of energy consumption in the planet (reducing the rate of population growth and developing of energy-saving technologies will contribute to this). At the same time for poor countries with law level of energy consumption the most important problem is its increasing as the base of economic growth and overcoming of backwardness.

Since fossil fuel is a predominant source of energy, it is necessary to provide measures for its saving taking into account the interests of future generations, increasing the degree of extracting from subsoil and the depth of processing, developing of new sources (hydrates, shale and etc.).

Trunk direction of the Strategy realization is expansion of using of renewable and alternative energy sources, primarily high-tech - hydrogen energy with fuel elements, sun energy, biofuels of new generations and etc. Along with the small self-contained power generators, including small HES, wind stations it is also possible constructing of large tidal stations on the Okhotsk sea banks.

The reduce of growth rate should be expected and perhaps reduce of volumes and proportions in energy production AES under the influence of accident in Fukushima.

The gradual reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere demands radical changes as in the structure of energy consumption as in mass using of waste-free and low-waste technologies, and also working off mechanism of stimulating of ejection reducing, setting of payments for pollution as an instrument of removing of environmental antirent and its using for financing of developing and diffusing of environmentally clean technologies, particularly in developed countries. It will demand creation the system of ecomonitoring, measuring sources and volumes of pollution.

4. Mechanisms and institutes of Strategy realization

4.1. Mechanisms of Strategy realization.In order that the Strategy could become an

executable document rather than a sum of good wishes it is necessary to create the effective mechanisms of its implementation. What are the main elements of these mechanisms?

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1. The system of the long-term and medium-term forecasting and strategic planning.

From time to time (approximately each five years) it is necessary to develop and clarify the long-term forecasts of the global energetic sector, of changes occurring in it as well as to monitor the comparison of the forecasted and actual pathways. This is shall be a basis for determination of priorities’ system for realization of the innovative and breakthrough continuity of the forecast and the development of the long-term (with a horizon of 10-15 years) strategic plan, which would concentrate the resources on a balanced transformation of the energetic sector world as well as separate countries. This work can be performed on the basis of the global and national energy and ecologic balances.

2. Long-term global, international and national programs are the main instrument for the Strategy realization. Thus, the USA accepted the long-term programs for hydrogen and alternative energy; EC developed a hydrogen platform with a horizon of up to 2050. For the purpose of Strategy realization the international think-tank offers the global program “Clear energy” and the international energy and ecological program “The Energy of Arctic”, which can be realized under the coordinating role of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District and with the assistance of the International strategic innovative and technological alliance.

Each program requires a logically built tree of objectives ensuring the achievement of objectives as well as sources of financing and a control system of programs realization.

3. Financing of programs is a required condition for their successful implementation and realization of Strategies of energetic and ecological partnership. For these purposes both the assets of the Global ecological fund and investments of the interested states and companies, credits of the World bank and leading international and national credit organizations can be used. Thereat it should be taken into account that the projects in the field of energy usually show the long payback period and those in the field of ecology can be unrealizable at all without the government and international support. It is necessary to use the offered International strategic innovative and technological alliance of mechanisms for international competitions and auctions of innovation projects based on the International stock of innovative projects.

At the Round-table meeting within the framework of the World’s summit RIO+20 in Johannesburg in 2002 I offered the mechanism of financial support of the global stable development by means of transfers from the unearned income – the world revenue, ecological anti-revenue and financial quasi-revenue. That offer was exhorted by the participants of the Round-table but was not responded from UN. It should be necessary to return to that issue and to take into consideration

the probability of its implementation for financing of the global and international programs and projects by means of taking-out of world ecological anti-revenue – sui generis “green tax” similar to that implemented in India. This will require the government and companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time it will create enough sources for financing of global and international ecological programs as well as for the support of energetic and ecological programs in poor countries. The similar offer is justified in the report of the Nobel Prize winner in economics Joseph Striglitz on the XV World Congress of International economical organization in Strasburg in June of 2008.

The present sharp fluctuations of the world prices for energy sources are in many cases speculative and lead to the large scale of international reallocation of funds, make unsafe the perspective calculations of structural changes effectiveness, the use of new techniques and technologies in the energy sector. The prices cease to be the measuring instrument of the value and effectiveness and become the instrument of manipulation manifest on stock exchange, the source of chaotic fluctuations. Therefore it is necessary to develop mechanists of international regulation of the word prices dynamics in order to increase their stability and predictability.

4.2. Institutes of global energy and ecological strategy realization.

The offered mechanisms of the long-term realization of the global international strategy should be based upon the network adequate to the scale of the strategy and its mechanism of international procedural and legal institutions. What institutions are we speaking about?

1. Forming within the framework of UN organization responsible for the development and implementation of the global strategy of energetic and ecological partnership of civilizations. Nowadays such organization does not exist. United Nations Environmental Program is responsible mainly for the development of forecasts of ecological developments and support of some ecological projects. Financing of international and some national projects is carried out by the Global ecological fund, International energy agency basically representing the country development (Organization for Economic Cooperation), it periodically published the ecological forecasts.

It is necessary to create an integrated global international body, which would act as the ordering party of Global energy and ecological programs and projects and responsible for their application. There are two possible variants: either to create a new specialized energy and ecological organization by the resolution of the UN General Assembly, or to considerably expand the competence of UNEP, put the Global ecological fund under its aegis. The second variant seems to be the most appropriate and fast-realizable, however it will required the thoroughgoing reconsideration of UNEP competence and structure. The functions of this body

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can be added by the forming of the global mechanism of response to emergency situation and natural disasters such as earthquake in Haiti, Japan, tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, volcanic explosions in Island, ecological catastrophes in the Gulf of Mexico etc.

The global energy and ecological law is the new branch of the international law regulating the system of legal relations in the field of mutual cooperation of states and TNC including those at the realization of energy and ecological programs and projects as well as the response to emergency situations in the said area.

The number of elements of this law already exists, for example in the form of the international agreements concerning the prohibition of test and distribution of nuclear weapon and other means of mass destruction. Also it will be necessary to create specialized international judicial bodies for settlement of disputes in this field, the bodies of implementation of court decisions and control over the compliance with the adopted norms of global ecological law (the type of ecological police).

If the decision on implementation of the mechanism of ecological damage recovery (exemption of world ecological anti-revenue) is accepted it will be necessary to create a special mechanism of monitoring the volume and actual sources of pollution.

A specialized body will be also required for realization of international monitoring function and regulation of dynamics of world prices for energy resources, by applying the global anti-monopolistic legislation in the said area.

The experimental basis for creation of mechanisms of future global law can be the normative and legal base of the European Union in the field of energy and ecology regulation. From this point of view it should be necessary to study the accrued experience, the possibility and perspectives of its use world-wide.

The financial institutes are the necessary condition of realization of the Strategy of energy and ecological partnership of civilizations, its programs and projects. Nowadays the regulating function of global financial and credit relationships are mainly performed by the International Monetary Fund, World bank and the less known Fund of financial stability. There is a number of organizations such as International finance corporation, Eurasian bank of reconstruction and development etc. But in all these organizations the rich countries prevail and «order music», which have brought the greatest financial contribution to funds of these organizations. Interests of the countries representing the majority of mankind are quite often ignored or broken. An essential problem is democratization of activity of these organizations.

Steps in this direction have been offered by «the group 20», however they have appeared to be ineffective.

It is necessary to discuss a question concerning creation, alongside with Global ecological fund, the World energy and ecological bank of reconstruction and progress, having assigned on it the functions of

support not only ecological projects, but also projects on overcoming the polarization in this area, the development of energy basis and energy and ecological technologies in lagging, poor countries («poles of poverty») by taking into consideration the ecological requirements.

Personnel maintenance of the Strategy realization, its programs and projects should based upon the network of existing and newly created educational and advisory institutions. We speak both about the staff of developers and researchers of energy and ecological programs and projects, and about the staff of national and international officials and executives of corporations, which perform management, acting as their customers and inspectors of the obtained results and practical use of these results.

Energy and ecological programs and projects, especially international, have a significant specific character and require special knowledge. At present such knowledge are not sufficient, that is a source of numerous mistakes and miscalculations, failures of some projects at the realization of basic innovations in this area.

The situation could be corrected by the use of special programs of education in the leading universities of the world as well as by the organization of retraining and additional vocational training on the basis of the Global innovative Internet-university (ГИИУ) in the partnership with the leading universities.

According to the energy and ecological the program «Energy of the North» is planned to organize vocational training on the basis of a created Arctic scientifically-educational complex in the partnership with ГИИУ and the St.-Petersburg State Polytechnic University.

As to the international officials, the University of the United Nations with its branches could be useful here. In any case it would be necessary to establish the order, according to which people will be accepted to management in international energy and ecological sphere by the results of public examinations after special-purpose vocational training.

Formation of mechanisms and institutions for realization of the long-term strategy of energy and ecological partnership of civilizations will help to achieve the objectives of the Strategy in more short terms and with relatively less expenses, will promote the faster overcoming of crisis and development anthropospheric energy and ecological method of manufacture and consumption not only in the vanguard countries, but also in the scale of the whole planet.

5. Global energy and ecological balance

The development and performance of the long-term global strategy of energy and ecological partnership of civilizations will require creation and use of the new forecasting and analytical tools, the leading place among which will be taken by the global energy and ecological

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balance in view of civilizations and the leading countries. Its main advantage is the integrated approach to the balanced dynamics of processes of energy, ecological, economic, technological, demographic dynamics. By developing ideas of models input-output and Vasily Leontyev's economic and fuel and energy balance used in practice, energy and ecological balance goes significantly farther, penetrating all structure of economy and providing criteria for assessment of equation of accepted strategic decisions and results of their realization.

The methods of creation of energy and ecological balance foresees the separation of four blocks (picture 1):

• main macro-economical factors are the dynamics of population size, gross domestic product (GDP) by BFI in permanent process (volume per capita), average technological mode (expert assessment);

• energy balance – energy consumption in tons of oil equivalent (volume per capita), the percent of fossil fuel in the structure of energy consumption, clear import (export) of energy in % to its consumption;

• energy balance – emission of CO2 (volume per capita and per ton of energy consumption);

• energy and ecological effectiveness – GDP by BFE per a ton of energy consumption, per ton of CO2

emission and for the amount of energy consumption and CO2 emission.

Data for the balance development in retrospective (except for average technological mode) are available in publications of the World bank, UN and International energy agency.

Based on the data if the population forecast of UN, the forecast of the International energy agency and the World bank data there has been developed (with the participation of the candidate of the Russian Academy of Public Administration P.V. Yermolayev) the experimental global energy and ecological balance for the perspective of up to 2050 (table 1).

The cost parameters (GDP by BFI) have been accepted in permanent prices of 2005, which can considerably differ from the parameters in current prices or under other time basis. The average technological mode has been determined on the basis of the expert assessment. The growth rate of GDP for the perspective shall be differentiated by taking into consideration the decline of growth rates in the first quarter of the XXI century (on the declining phase of the fifth Kondratyev’s cycle) and acceleration of rates at the ascending wave of the sixth cycle in the second part of the come century.

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Table 1long-term forecast of the worldwide power sector dynamics

based on the power-ecological balanceА – “no change” scenario,

B – innovative breakthrough scenario

1990 2000 2007Sce-nario

2020 2030 2040 20502050 in % to 2007

I block

Population, millions of people

GDP based on PPP, billions of Dollars

per caput, Dollars

Average technological mode (value)

5259

35968

6913

3,6

6057

47971

7883

3,8

6610

63092

9530

3,9

АBАBАBАB

7675785178000885001016011210

4,14,3

83098752950001085001143012400

4,34,7

88019686

1080001310001227013520

4,55,0

9150104611200001530001311014630

4,75,2

138158190243138153113133

II block

Power consumption million o.e. tons

per caput, o.e. tons

Fossil fuel ratio, %

8556

1,63

81

9733

1,61

80

11665

1,76

81

АBАBАB

14000131001,821,677976

17000150002,051,917771

18600160002,111,657564

19500162002,131,557157

168138121888870

III block

СО2 emissions, million tons

per caput, tons

per 1 tons of power consumption, tons

22520

4,3

2,63

24688

4,1

2,54

30749

4,6

2,64

АBАBАB

3640031000

4,74,02,602,37

3880026000

4,73,622,281,53

3700021000

4,22,21,991,25

3420016000

3,71,51,750,99

1115281336637

IV block

Energy efficiency, Dollars/ o.e. tons

Ecological efficiency, Dollars/ СО

2 tons

Power and ecological efficiency, Dollars/ o.e. tons + СО

2 tons

4,20

1,42

1,21

4,92

1,94

1,39

5,44

2,05

1,49

АB

АB

АB

5,576,76

2,142,84

1,551,98

5,597,23

2,454,17

1,702,65

5,818,19

2,926,24

1,943,54

6,159,44

3,517,56

2,234,75

113174

170466

150319

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References:

1. Power and ecological future civilizations. Part 3 of the Global forecast “Future of Civilizations” for the period till 2050 year. М.: MISK, 2009.

2. Forecast and strategy of power and ecological partnership of Russia, Kazakhstan and EuroAsES. Part 10 of the Global forecast “Future of Civilizations” for the period till 2050 year. М.: MISK, 2009.

3. Kuzyk B.N., Yakovets Yu.V. the Global power and ecological revolution. M.INES, 2007.4. Kuzyk B.N., Yakovets Yu.V. Russia: strategy of transition to hydrogen power systems. M.:INES, 2008.5. Nazarbayev N.A. Strategy of drastic renewal of the global community and partnership of civilizations. Astana:

2009.6. Renewable and alternative power: World tendencies, utilization practice, power and ecological balance study.

M.: GFTY, 2010.7. Yakovets Yu.V. The Global economical transformations of the XXI century. M.: Economics, 2011.8. Yakovets Yu.V. Long-term forecast of development of energy sector in the World and in Russia based on power

and ecological balance. M.:MISK, 2011. 9. Basics of the long-term strategy of the global sustained development based on partnership of civilizations.

Report of International scientists team. Release. M.: MISK, 2011.10. Long-term strategy of civilizations partnership. Electronic anthology. M.:MISK-INES, 2011.

The worldwide power-generating sector development opportunities and tendencies study based on blocks of the global power and ecological balance revealed the following:

1. In long-term prospective population growth rates will significantly reduce worldwide (from 1.18% in 2005-2010 to 0.34% according to average forecast by the UN in 2045-2050), that will cause reduction of power consumption growth rate. At the same time decrease population at the able-bodied age (especially in countries with depopulation – Russia, Ukraine, Japan, most of the Western and Eastern Europe) will become a deterrent as to the GDP, and subsequently will set back power and ecological efficiency. In the innovative breakthrough scenario this issue can be resolved based on multiple increase of labor productivity growth rate as a result of ever-growing use of the sixth mode technologies. The GDP growth rates in fair value will also decrease compared to the second half of the XX century in both case scenarios. This comes as a result of the slowed down population growth rate and inflow of labor power, and more and more sensible influence of restraint and appreciation of mineral and other natural resources used in production, and growing investments in ecological projects. According to the “no change” scenario we can expect increase of the GDP volume by 2050y. 1.9 times (per caput – up to 38%), according to the innovative breakthrough – 2. times(percaput– upto53%). The above restrictions will be partially compensated due to acceleration and increase of efficiency of the scientific and technological progress in connection with application and further expansion of the sixth technological mode.

2. Nowadays power consumption growth rate per caput is extremely high and in long-term prospective has to be minimized, and by the middle of the century must get to a negative value as a result of expansion of energy-saving technologies, reduction of energy wastry in developed countries, especially with regards to transport, power system and housing and utilities infrastructure. Total volume of power consumption

worldwide will increase to 68% in 43 years according to the “no change’ scenario and to 38% according to the innovative breakthrough scenario due to high rates of power consumption growth in falling behind and rapidly developing countries and civilizations.

Amid accelerating deficiency of fossil fuel in the second half of the XXI century power balance can be sustained only due to outrunning growth of utilization of renewable and alternative power sources, share of which will reach 30% by the end of the period in case of the innovative breakthrough scenario.

3. Emission of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere within next decades will increase because of the rapidly developing countries compared to its reduction in developed countries. In the second quarter of the century the tendency turning may occur, however it is hard to achieve the set target of reduction of emissions to 50% compared to 2007 by the middle of the century because of the power consumption and emissions growths in rapidly developing countries.

4. Long-term improvement of the global power efficiency is not going to be significant due as a result of decrease of the GDP growth rates, considerable growth of power consumption. At the same time outrunning growth of ecological efficiency will be obvious, especially in the innovative breakthrough scenario case (4.66 times). This will bring high rates of improvement of power and ecological efficiency (1.5 times according to the “no change” scenario and 3.2 times according to the innovative breakthrough).

In the nearest one and a half to two decades, it is expected that the “no change’ scenario will prevail. The innovative breakthrough scenario and achievement of the set strategic targets will be possible in the course of development and further implementation of the global strategy of power and ecological partnership of civilizations. The German practice shows that turning of adverse tendencies is quite possible. In the ‘no change’ scenario and with o global strategy contradictions and conflicts, ecological disaster threat will only accelerate.