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Nikolai Dmitriyevich KondratieffMarch 4, 1892 – September 17, 1938

Vladimir Ilyich Lenin April 22, 1870 – January 21, 1924

“The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.”

Alexander Lvovich Parvus September 8, 1867 - December 12, 1924

Long Wave theorist and Lenin’s economic mentor

PARVUS – LENIN - KONDRATIEFF SOME CHRONOLOGY

• 1867 Birth of Parvus (Alexander Israel Helphand) in what is now Belarus. • 1870: Birth of Lenin • 1887 Execution of brother politicizes Lenin • 1891 Parvus receives his PhD in economics from Basel; develops a reputation as Marxist theoretician, and

ultimately described in the memoir of one German socialist as having "the ablest brains of the Second International”

• 1892 Birth of Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratieff

• 1893 Lenin in exile, Siberia plus Europe, for political agitation • 1900 Lenin meets Parvus in Munich. He revives Marx's concept of "permanent revolution" which is

adopted by Lenin and Trotsky. • 1901 Parvus writes a pamphlet restating 1847 idea of British engineer Dr. Hyde Clark, of 54 year cycle but

it was Kondratieff who first described the cycle in detail and for whom the cycle is named. Kondratieff cycles are most readily apparent in monetary data such as prices and interest rates.

• 1905 Russian Revolution: labor strikes, officer mutinies, Bloody Sunday (peaceful demonstrators gunned down by Imperial Guard) led to the establishment of limited constitutional monarchy, the State Duma of the Russian Empire, the multi-party system, and the Russian Constitution of 1906. Parvus, along with Trotsky, is arrested and imprisoned for authoring a paper entitled The Financial Manifesto which caused panic in the banking sector and other agitation but escapes 3 years in exile in Siberia.

• 1913 Two Dutch socialists talk of a cycle including 25 years of slow growth followed by a

"springtide". • 1914 Russia sustaining huge losses in WWI • 1915 Lenin and Parvus meet in Bern. Lenin is willing to receive German sponsorship but won't

publicly acknowledge relationship so there is still debate about how Lenin was financed. By now Parvus regarded as a German agent, but a committed Marxist.

• 1917 Kondratieff a young professor specializing in agricultural economics. • 1917 Lenin returns to Russia following February Revolution that overthrows the Czar, replacing

him with a Provisional Government, whose second Prime Minister was Alexander Kerensky. Kerensky appoints Kondratieff Deputy Minister of Food Supplies. Lenin becomes leader of the Bolshevik faction of the Russian Social Democratic Labor Party and helps orchestrate the October Revolution that overthrows Kerensky's Provisional Government and establishes the Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic.

• 1918 -1920 Russian Civil War between Reds (Bolsheviks) and Whites (Bourgeois Conservatives, Officer Classes) Huge loss of life.

• 1920 Conjuncture Institute is established • 1922 Kondratieff publishes first major work The World Economy and Its Conjunctures During and After

the War introducing his theory of crises and establishes the theoretical and statistical basis for long term conjuncture fluctuations - that is, long waves or cycles of about 64 years in duration that illustrate, in wavelike fashion, a consistent pattern of economic expansion, crisis and depression.

• 1924 Lenin dies; Parvus dies, a wealthy man, in Berlin. • 1925 Kondratieff publishes Big Cycles of Conjuncture but is now finding himself in disfavor • 1926 Kondratieff delivers a paper on long cycles that is much criticized • 1928 Kondratieff loses support because of his pro-market industrialization ideas and support of small

scale peasant farming, including that of the kulaks, the wealthier farmers (who knew how to run a farming operation!).

• 1929 Conjuncture Institute is now closed; • 1930 Kondratieff arrested • 1932 Sentenced to 8 years at Suzdal.

Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin December 18, 1878 – March 5, 1953

On September 17, 1938, in Stalin’s Great Purge, Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratieff was sentenced and executed by firing squad

Yellow - Oil Price in U.S. Legal Tender Red - Oil Price in Gold Dollars

"Gold is Money. That's it." - J.P. Morgan

What my friend Larry Jeddeloh of the TIS Group Heard and didn’t Hear on his recent round of institutional visits

NK’s Chair Portfolio

• A Leg of Gold and Silver Bullion

• A Leg of Energy • A Leg of great Global Dividend Paying

Franchises

• A Leg of Agriculture • The Seat of the chair is your Job or

Pension • The Back of the chair is your Real Estate

Faites vos jeux, rien ne va plus

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