В.Н. Лыкосов Институт вычислительной математики РАН,...

- : CITES 2005, , 13-18 2005 .

: .. ,119991, , -1, . , 8e-mail: [email protected]

, , : 1. - (, , , , ..), , ;2. - , , - ;3. - ( , ), ( , ) (" ");4. - , ;5. , , , .

(T. Slingo, 2002)

, . . , (Schr et al., 1999) - . ( ). , (Shukla & Mintz, 1982). (Giorgi et al., 1996): . .

, 0 C . , , , . , , . . ( , ) - .

Save Lives & PropertyWeather-Sensitive Commerce ($2+ T) : ?

, , . . (- ) ( ) . ( ) (. Rodell et al., 2004, BAMS, v. 85, p. 381-394), , , (., , http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/17998).

(P. Dirmeyer, 2004) ( 3 ) .

T.J. Philips et al. (2002). Large-Scale Validation of AMIP II Land-Surface Simulations

Table 2. Model codes and features of the sixteen AMIP2 models analysed in Zhang et al. (2002)

Code

Resolution

Land-surface components

No. of layers in soil temp. calculations

No. of layers in soil moist. calculations

Model

Country

Soil model complexity

Canopy representation

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

P

T42L18

T63L45

4x5 L21

T159L50

T63L30

T42L18

T62L18

T42L18

3.75x2.5 L58

3.75x2.5 L19

T47L32

4x5 L20

T42L30

T42L18

4x5 L24

4x5 L15

bucket

force-restore

multi-layer diffusion












bucket

bucket

const. canopy resistance

intercept. + transpiration




intercept.+transpiration+CO2









no

no

3

2

24

4

4

6

3

2

4

4

3

2

3

6

1

1

1

2

24

4

3

6

2

3

4

4

3

3

3

6

1

1

CCSR, Japan

CNRM, France

INM, Russia

ECMWF, UK

JMA, Japan

NCAR, USA

NCEP, USA

PNNL, USA

UGAMP, UK

UKMO, UK

CCCMA, Can

GLA, USA

MRI, Japan

SUNYA, USA

UIUC, USA

YONU, Korea

PAGE

35

, .. , ()

(Robock et al., 2000)

Global Soil Moisture Data Bank

GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment): http://www.gewex.orgMAGS: http://http://www.usask.ca/geography/MAGSGCIP: http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/gapp/gcipLBA: http://www.gewex.org/lambada.htmlBALTEX: http://w3.gkss.de/baltex/CATCH: http://www.lthe.hmg.inpg.fr/WEB_Catch/Accueil_CATCH_en.htmlGAME: http://www.hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp/gameMDB: http://www.gewex.org/mdb.htmlPILPS: http://www.cic.mq.edu.au/pilps-rice

(Land Data Assimilation System LDAS): ( , ),

1) - 4--

=>

2) ( )

3) 4-- , 1), .

(Hartzell et al., 2003) : ; ; . [%]LDASNorth American LDASGlobal LDAS .

(GLDAS): National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) : - - , GLDAS , ( off-line) .

GLDAS3 : Mosaic (Koster and Suarez, 1996) - ; CLM (Dai et al., 2003) NCAR (Bonan, 1998), BATS (Dickinson et al., 1986) ( Dai and Zeng, 1997); Noah (Ek et al., 2003) NCEP. ( ): (Walker and Houser, 2001), , ( ): 1) ; 2) , ; 3) () spin-up.

: 1- , (UMD) (NOAA-15) (Hansen et al., 2000) : 5- (Reynolds et al., 2000) , , , , : 30- (GTOPO30, Verdin and Greenlee, 1996) : 0.250.25, 0.50.5, 11 22.5 .

GLDAS (Rodell et al., 2004):

, , , ,

GLDAS (Rodell et al., 2004):

(--) (/, R. Koster): (GLDAS)

1988 . (Huang, 2003)

Initialization of Land-Surface Schemes for Subseasonal Predictions (P. Dirmeyer, 2004) () N-LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System)

N-LDAS Collaborators NOAA NASA Universities http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov

4-- ( Eta), 4 : MOSAIC (NASA/GSFC) NOAH (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) VIC (Princeton University/University of Washington) Sacramento (NOAA/OHD)3. ( , , ).

: 1/8-, .

:: UMD, EROS, IGBP, EOS: STATSGO, IGBP; : 1 (http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov) N-LDAS N-LDAS EROS- 1-

, , 2000 2001

Initialization of Land-Surface Schemes for Subseasonal Predictions (P. Dirmeyer, 2004) ELDAS (ECMWF, DWD, CNRM/Meteo France)

P. Viterbo et al. The representation of soil moisture freezing and its impact on the stable boundary layer. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 1999, v. 125, 2401-2426. , . ( ).

:

,

,

,

.

( - ; Fi - /; Fv- /;

- ;

- .

_1053521551.unknown

_1120484867.unknown

_1120484988.unknown

_1120485011.unknown

_1120484927.unknown

_1119969038.unknown

_1053521550.unknown

h, - (-h,0)

,

,

Tsn - , Wsn - ( ) , (sn , sn , (sn (sn , , , . Fsn Fi .

, , , , . , . , .

_1053521553.unknown

_1119969114.unknown

:

:

- ( )

, ,

(Ishizaki,1994)

, - - , , , . E

.

- , i- ,

- ,

- . , ,

,

.

.

, U ,

- .

_1120490291.unknown

_1120490536.unknown

_1120490852.unknown

_1120490927.unknown

_1120490370.unknown

_1120490174.unknown

_1120490244.unknown

_1120489958.unknown

,

,

(Sellers et al., 1986)

,

, k = 0.9.

- ( 55 S), ;

- , ,

- .

_1120553289.unknown

_1120553741.unknown

_2067326194.unknown

_2067326263.unknown

_1120553611.unknown

_1120491138.unknown

_1120491287.unknown

_1120491088.unknown

PILPS 2(d) . , (Luo et al, 2003)

Phase changeNo phase change0-10cm0-100cm

(identical model forcing)

. (- 1977 .). :

: 1970/71 (), 1971/72 (), 1972/73 ().

10 (), 50 () 200 (). , , .

2 (0) 720 .. ( ) 600 .. () . : , ,

: NCAR/NCEP, ECMWF, , - 2

: - - . - , downscaling. - .

: - , , -

: - , , .. - - . - .

: - . - : , , , (). - - .

:

(.. )

:

2 ( ) . http://CCDAS.org

( , )

(CH4)

(on-line) (Muller,1992)

Knorr et al., 2004: Carbon end fAPAR assimilation with CCDAS

!

Note this is one of our more skillful predictions. The success probably stems from the extreme nature of the initial anomaly

В.Н. Лыкосов Институт вычислительной математики РАН,...

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