中国能源发展战略与政策趋向 吴宗鑫 清华大学核能与新能源研究院
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Transcript of 中国能源发展战略与政策趋向 吴宗鑫 清华大学核能与新能源研究院
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
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1.
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Chart1
0.33
0.37
-0.26
0.59
0.5
0.48
0.6
0.62
0.62
0.65
1.03
0.48
0.56
0.37
0.45
0.44
0.63
0.59
-0.09
-0.52
-0.21
0.02
1.19
0.66
1.53
1.6
0.96
Sheet1
GDPtcetce
19783624.15714457144
19794038.258588585880.331.3
19804517.860275602750.370.85
19814862.45944759447-0.260.56
19825294.762646626460.590.65
19835394.566040660400.50.67
1984717170904709040.480.48
19858964.476682766820.60.66
198610202.280850808500.621.08
198711962.586632866320.620.91
198814928.392997929970.650.85
198916909.296934969341.031.77
199018574.998703987030.481.65
199121617.81037831037830.560.98
199225863.71091701091700.370.8
1993353341159931159930.450.8
1994481981227371227370.440.69
1995607941311761311760.630.81
1996711771389481389480.590.71
199778973137798137798-0.090.55
199884402132214132214-0.520.27
199989677130119130119-0.210.86
2000992151302971302970.021.3
20011096551431991431991.191
20021203331517871517870.661.27
20031358231749901749901.531.65
20041598782032272032271.61.48
20051823212224682224680.961.33
Sheet2
1978
19790.33
19800.37
1981-0.26
19820.59
19830.5
19840.48
19850.6
19860.62
19870.62
19880.65
19891.03
19900.48
19910.56
19920.37
19930.45
19940.44
19950.63
19960.59
1997-0.09
1998-0.52
1999-0.21
20000.02
20011.19
20020.66
20031.53
20041.6
20050.96
Sheet2
Sheet3
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198019966.0313.890.53
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1997200089 2001
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2002
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1990-2001 3.4%2002-200514.5%1990-2001 6.4%2002-2005 6.6%1990-2001 8.4%2002-200514.7%
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GDP 1990-2001 9.7%2002-2005 9.6%GDP/GDP1990-2001 0.352002-2005 1.51GDP/GDP1990-2001 0.862002-2005 1.53
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100
200
300
400
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Mtce
Production
Consumption
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2.
-
GDP : 1730 US$ 21.20 tce 22.24 tce : 1.81 t 3.00 t : 500 m3: 2.475 kWhCO2 : 14.62 t-C( 2005)
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SO2 CO2
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GDP/GDP
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Chart2
0.689
0.194
0.03
0.076
0.011
Sheet1
GDPtcetce
19783624.15714457144
19794038.258588585880.331.3
19804517.860275602750.370.85
19814862.45944759447-0.260.56
19825294.762646626460.590.65
19835394.566040660400.50.67
1984717170904709040.480.48
19858964.476682766820.60.66
198610202.280850808500.621.08
198711962.586632866320.620.91
198814928.392997929970.650.85
198916909.296934969341.031.77
199018574.998703987030.481.65
199121617.81037831037830.560.98
199225863.71091701091700.370.8
1993353341159931159930.450.8
1994481981227371227370.440.69
1995607941311761311760.630.81
1996711771389481389480.590.71
199778973137798137798-0.090.55
199884402132214132214-0.520.27
199989677130119130119-0.210.86
2000992151302971302970.021.3
20011096551431991431991.191
20021203331517871517870.661.27
20031358231749901749901.531.65
20041598782032272032271.61.48
20051823212224682224680.961.33
Sheet2
1978
19791.3
19800.85
19810.56
19820.65
19830.67
19840.48
19850.66
19861.08
19870.91
19880.85
19891.77
19901.65
19910.98
19920.8
19930.8
19940.69
19950.81
19960.71
19970.55
19980.27
19990.86
20001.3
20011
20021.27
20031.65
20041.48
20051.33
Sheet3
0.689
0.194
0.03
0.076
0.011
Sheet3
Chart1
0.257
0.385
0.233
0.076
0.024
Sheet1
GDPtce
19783624.157144
19794038.258588
19804517.860275
19814862.459447
19825294.762646
19835394.566040
1984717170904
19858964.476682
198610202.280850
198711962.586632
198814928.392997
198916909.296934
199018574.998703
199121617.8103783
199225863.7109170
199335334115993
199448198122737
199560794131176
199671177138948
199778973137798
199884402132214
199989677130119
200099215130297
2001109655143199
2002120333151787
2003135823174990
2004159878203227
2005182321222468
Sheet2
1978
19791.3
19800.85
19810.56
19820.65
19830.67
19840.48
19850.66
19861.08
19870.91
19880.85
19891.77
19901.65
19910.98
19920.8
19930.8
19940.69
19950.81
19960.71
19970.55
19980.27
19990.86
20001.3
20011
20021.27
20031.65
20041.48
20051.33
Sheet3
0.257
0.385
0.233
0.076
0.024
Sheet3
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GDPtoe/
2
683
263
176
253
191
Sheet1
683
263
176
253
OECD191
Sheet1
/GDP
Sheet2
Sheet3
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GDP
GDP 15.4% 51.1% 33.5% 2% 26% 72%
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74%tce/
-
3.
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GDP
-
GDPGDP14GDP14.25 (1980)4.07(1997)8 (1960)
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14.7GDP : 7.5%GDP 3.5%GDP 0.5GDP 0.86GDP 0.682020
-
2020
20052020 ()1.31.47 GDP (US$)17274519 (Mtce)22243862tce1.712.63 (Mt)300633 (TWh)24756321 (GW)5081264
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2060
-
13015010 14m310% 2020200 m3
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2202060%
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5.420041813%19%
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SO2NOxCO2:
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2/36000/.20002.4 102.537.5 750%3.52.2
-
1
-
2020660%2
-
31.4%1030%GDP3
-
4 2020
-
4
-
7080
80
-
2190 CO2 FutrueGen GEN-FreedomCAR & Fuel Initiative Grid2030
-
6
-
80%30%
-
21%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
19.4
20.2
23.5
33.6
42.7
53.4
-
-
-
1.9
7.9
13.5
Shell
18.3
22.2
20.9
32.3
43.3
54.6
-
-
-
2.6
8.4
14.9
18.9
21.2
22.2
33.0
43
54
-
-
-
2.3
8.2
14.2
-
20302060 B.tce
-
21
-
5
-
2020GDP
-
203516%
-
205050%203530%
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60
-
3010
-
500550
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6
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5. 1
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5. 5
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
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5. 4
1. 2. 3. 4.
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, , ,,3.64.3)