空间分析方法在梅毒防治中的应用

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空间分析方法在梅毒防治中的应用. 中国医学科学院皮肤病研究所中国 CDC 性病控制中心门佩璇. 选题依据与研究意义. 1. 研究目的. 2. 研究方法. 3. 研究结果与讨论. 小结与展望. 4. 5. Contents. 我国梅毒报告病例数的变化. 2009 年. 1988-1994 年. 1000-1 万例. ＞ 30 万例. 1984-1987 年. 2007-2008 年. 100-1000 例. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CDC
Contents
4020114296772004-201122.59%

2004-200552006-2008420093
201062010-2020
2004GISHIVHIVGIS
Target 1Target 2 Target 3
1 2011 2 3 2011 GDPGDP 2011 MSMFSW
MapInfo 2011 1MapInfo 10.0 GIS 2GeoDa 1.46 3ArcGIS 10.0
1 Exploratory Spatial Data AnalysisESDA MoranG LISAG 2 SLMSEM
1 37150/10

292531.6033.8521.173.1120.89292513.3918.307.895.7868.63292517.0120.699.612.8111.10
2 2011Morann=2925

MoranE(I)Z-ScoreP0.5762-0.000351.66950.0010.4505-0.000338.43080.0010.6302-0.000356.47290.001
2 2011Gn=2925

GE(G)Z-ScoreP0.03310.025015.04460.0010.03520.025014.85460.0010.03700.025019.68690.001
3LISA

2011LISA 262689 2011LISA 704 273
3G

2011 511750/10

23438333331356
. . , 1999, 20(3): 138-140. Diktter F. Sexually transmitted diseases in modern China: a historical survey. Genitourin Med, 1993, 69:341-345.
3G

2011 3
1

TestDFvaluepMorans I(error)-0.0586--Lagrange Multiplier(lag)11.3623520.24313Robust LM(lag)10.903590.341821Lagrange Multiplier(error)10.4653520.495134Robust LM(error)10.0065890.935305Lagrange Multiplier(SARMA)21.3689410.504357
SLMSEM
2

TestDFvaluepMorans I(error)0.18869--Lagrange Multiplier(lag)182.567680.00001Robust LM(lag)121.491670.000004Lagrange Multiplier(error)162.560780.00001Robust LM(error)11.484780.223028Lagrange Multiplier(SARMA)284.052460.00001
SLMR=0.482635Log likelihood-1544.77AIC3129.54SC3206.41SLMSLM0.5530p0.0001

SLM SLM

TestDFvaluepLikelihood Ratio Test 0.188687 58.05463 0.000001
GDPMSMB1MSM6B2STDFSW
* GIS*